CNN — The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity. The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN.
The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.
Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.
A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment.
The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran. “If it is true that Israeli tactical plans to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1 have been leaked, it is a serious breach,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer. Mulroy added that “the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html
Comment: With alleged leaks like this there is little incentive for Israel to share any planning details with the US. That is unless Israel needs any kind of assistance from the US in its upcoming strike on Iran. What I read about the leaked documents, no real secrets were revealed. Israel is practicing all those things necessary to conduct an air attack on Iran. Well, duh. Of course they are. And the documents could still be fakes rather than leaked actual documents.
The CNN article leaves some doubt that these documents are authentic, but the NDTV article linked below makes the assumption that these leaked documents are genuine. I don’t know if the USG has confirmed that yet. Given the general nature of information released, some lower level employee with anti-Israeli sentiments could easily have access to such documents. On the other hand, a leak story manufactured by Iran would be a great way to sow distrust between Israel and the US, as well as within USI. I’m sure USI knows if these are real leaked documents or not by now. The investigation continues.
Now it also makes perfect sense that Kyiv did not share plans for their Kursk operation with the US. In line with this administrations policy of escalation management, I’m sure we would have deliberately leaked those plans in order to prevent the operation.
TTG
Kia ora mai o koutou iwi o aotearoa
(Hi, from your tribesmen in New Zealand)
I enjoy your articles and comments as always TTG.
I would like clarification on a couple of points though.
“.. unless Israel needs any kind of assistance from the US…” Hasn’t the US offered ‘ironclad’ support for Israel if attacked by Iran? Is there an advanced anti-missile battery along with US support crew already in Israel? Is Israel self-sufficient in aircraft, spare parts, fuel, munitions etc.? And the above is just common knowledge; I believe most of the USA help to Israel is below the horizon. Apart from platitudes (including the ridiculous Pier), has the USA attempted to seriously force Isreal to de-escalate its land thefts and genocide of its indigenous population, the realisation of which is now on public display.
“ .. some low level employee with anti-Israel sentiments… ” Sure, a good chance of that but maybe these employees pro-USA sentiments outweigh those of a suicidal, unhinged Israel. They might even be pro-Israel attempting its salvation.
“ .. a leak story manufactured by Iran… “. If I was Iran, I would do this. A low-cost solution and quite effective. Easily busted, but what can spy-v-spy do? Deny, not comment, reciprocate?
Lots of question marks and I apologise for my ignorance, after all, I’m just a south-pacifician salty smart-ass. My biggest question, and I have asked this several times in Turcopolier (with no critical response) is: Why does the USA support Israel?
As an aid to respondents, if there are any out there, I have narrowed my ideas down to two main concepts. Shared values, vis-à-vis puritanical messianism, and its close partner, USA imperialism i.e. capitalism gone wrong.
Love to hear from you..
rw
Kia ora Rob,
The US has offered ‘ironclad’ support for Israel if attacked and has already shot down Iranian missiles fired at Iran during first two attacks. We sent a THAAD battery and crew to Israel in preparation for the next attack. I have no problem with that part of the commitment. But we continue to send 2,000 lb bombs and other stuff while telling Netanyahu to stop bombing the Gazans willy-nilly and stop trying to start a war with Hezbollah. Either we don’t want Israel to stop or we just don’t care enough to do anything about it. This administration’s foreign policy is timid as hell. We may not be able to stop Netanyahu, but we don’t have to help him beyond providing defensive support. Even that we don’t have to do if we really want to play hardball with him. I think we’re deathly afraid that Netanyahu will resort to his nuclear weapons if he doesn’t get his way. That may be why be always end up supporting Israel.
We have the same timid foreign policy when it comes to Ukraine and Russia. There we call it escalation management. Again, we’re scared to death of driving Putin to using nuclear weapons. In both cases, it appears nuclear blackmail appears to work against us.
Does Israel really need us to strike Iran? In the short run, probably not. In the long run, I believe they need our support, but we sure don’t act like we believe that.
The THAAD battery has been sent because its radar system is top-shelf, and the last Iranian missile attack revealed that Israeli radar systems are decidedly second-rate or even third-tier.
Netanyahu doesn’t need the THAAD interceptor missiles – the Iranians can just add an extra 24 missiles in their next salvo – but he does need that X-band radar to take their battle-management up to the next level.
It is going to be the first thing the Iranians will aim to hit in the next round.
Maybe Plan A is leaked, while Plan B is being readied?
TTG: …”there is little incentive for Israel to share any planning details with the US”
The document suggests that the Israelis aren’t sharing planning details with the USA, since it consists of deductions gleaned from satellite observations of activity at IDF airbases.
As in: the USA is basing its Intel on what the Israelis are DOING, not on what the Israeli’s are SAYING.
To my mind this is misinformation that has been “leaked” to provide plausible-deniability for the Biden Administration: don’t blame us, Bibi kept us in the dark like everyone else.
You’re right to insist that the USA is reduced to spying on the Izzies to try to find out what they might be up to.
It’s a no-brainer, and as far as the press is concerned, it could well work.
D74? Just as NATO likes to pretend it had no foreknowledge of Kursk – something of an achievement if so, planning the operation whilst knowing nothing about it! – the Biden administration now likes to pretend it has no knowledge of what the Israelis are up to.
Odd thing is, that might be sort of true. What is due to deception or what is due to one faction in the US administration working against another, is impossible to determine.
But it’s the reality that counts, not would-be clever PR or infighting in Washington. And the reality we see is the US, the UK and Germany weeping crocodile tears over the atrocities whilst diligently supplying the Israelis with the weapons, the Intel, and the support to carry them out.
EO,
You continue to fall for the Kremlin storyline by believing NATO planned and directed Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. You probably believe there are American and other NATO troops there as well. If all that was the case, wouldn’t that be crossing one of the Kremlin’s many red lines? Wouldn’t NATO troops invading Russian territory lead to strong Russian retaliation against NATO countries? The truth is the Kremlin doesn’t believe the crap it’s selling.
For Israel’s eventual attack on Iran, it’s been widely reported that the US is negotiating with Israel to place Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil facilities off limits. So we definitely know what Israel is up to. And the fact that we collect on Israel’s military capabilities, plans and intentions is no secret. It’s also no secret that Israel engages in deception and may not tell us exactly what and when their attack on Iran will be.
I have no quarrel with your last paragraph. It’s an accurate assessment for the most part.
TTG – I don’t think it’s going to be easy, our denying foreknowledge of the Kursk incursion given the amount of our equipment and personnel involved.
As for the Russians, that Kursk incursion is yet another gift to them. This is still an attrition war and to present them with such a large amount of men and equipment to be attrited plays right into their hands. It also strengthens their case both internally and internationally.
I was astonished when I first heard of it. Not another of these dammed PR offensives, was my first reaction. Then repelled, when Zelensky said at Sumy that its purpose was to keep the aid flowing.
I see this as one of a long line of NATO screw-ups in Ukraine dating back to 2014. We ought to set about putting some competent generals in charge of our various militaries. Though I suppose the Russians will have been pleased that we didn’t.
But what is a matter of dispute in Ukraine becomes clear as day to everyone in the Israeli conflict. I’m the only person in my circle both in England and Germany to view the Ukrainian war as a Western caused disaster. So I’m used to being the odd man out on that. But I know none among friends and acquaintances in either country who do not see in this Israeli war an abomination in which the West is on the wrong side.
One can also see further incompetence, both diplomatic and military, on display.
Diplomatically, the entire world now views us in the West as the baddies. Rightly so, given what we are going along with. I think it was Colonel Wilkerson who pointed out that the US has now lost what used to be one of its greatest assets, its reputation. The Europoodles, as I call them and that includes the UK, didn’t have that much of a reputation to lose but whatever they had, that’s irretrievably lost as well.
Militarily, our people are flailing around as usual. We used to have generals who could at least calculate the odds. Now our various generals seem blind to military reality and serve as no more than PR assistants to the politicians. And that PR’s dreadful.
So reputational loss all round – as if that should be the main concern when atrocities on such a scale are being perpetrated in front of our eyes. The Turks, of all people, have just put out a video that shows what the world outside the “Garden” thinks of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=dtoWptrhPOM&t=5s&ab_channel=AnadoluEnglish
No apology for being able to watch only a tiny fraction of this video. Galloway’s a magnificent fighter for truth – one can never forget his appearance before the Senate Committee – but no one over the age of three needs to be told that in Israel at present we are watching in real time the vilest of atrocities. And on Brics, I’d rather wait to see the results of the summit rather than speculation on them.
So I rapidly skimmed the video – stolen from “b’s” site, MOA, courtesy John Gilberts – to land on a section with Michael Maloof. “Security advisor to the Pentagon” at that critical time in American history, that period not long after 9/11, when the crazies climbed out of the basement, marched into the front office, and then proceeded to wreck the whole damn country and the West with it.
Leaving, though it’s not done to remark upon it, a trail of broken bodies and wrecked societies across half the world. That is the critical period that the Colonel, the shrewdest observer and analyst I’ve ever come across, scrutinised and meditated over on the site and here in one of his essays:-
https://web.archive.org/web/20090609172955/http:/www.mepc.org/journal_vol11/0406_lang.asp
At 40 minutes Maloof briefly recounts his own observations during that same period. They confirm the Colonel’s account. Lasts some ten minutes and regrettably, as said, I have not had time to view the rest.
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1kvKpbngklwJE
“The bombs began to fall” is how the Colonel ended his essay. They’re falling still.
If I might go off topic, there is an interesting article on an Israeli news site which is linked to and described here:
https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1847995757497827655
One can put it through google translate and read it oneself.
The article describes plummeting morale in the IDF. It brings home to me how hard it is to keep soldiers morale up when your force is mostly reservists – they fight for a bit and then go home to mommy and mommy doesn’t want them to go back to the fighting so they don’t.
James,
I would think watching the suffering of Gazans up close for a year would have a corrosive effect on any normal soldier’s morale. That would mean that they are not monsters by nature. Only true sociopaths and psychopaths could spend a year looking at dead women and children with glee.
CNN covered the rising suicide problem with the IDF. Of course the IDS denies it. The article itself really doesnt get into the massive amounts of women and children being killed. It is the elephant in the room for the article really. One soldier talks about having to run over Hamas terrorists, sometimes hundreds at a time, with his bulldozer. It would seem even before he killed himself he could not get himself to admit what they were mostly killing were women and children. Some IDF soldiers cant handle it whilst others are putting videos all over tik tok of things that are very clearly war crimes. They are so confident that they will never be held to account that they include videos, often their full names and units. It is brazen.
Maybe some of that brazen bragging about war crimes on videos circulated to the world catches up with some of them later. The article itself is one step away from an Israeli psy-ops piece itself.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/21/middleeast/gaza-war-israeli-soldiers-ptsd-suicide-intl/index.html
Greetings
“Only true sociopaths and psychopaths could spend a year looking at dead women and children with glee”
I concur. Where I live, we have quite the influx of Israelis. Among them there are people who have completed a tour in Gaza. Having seen the horrors of urban warfare and after being discharged they decided to pack up the family and move out.
Talked to a few of them and I never thought I would see the day where an Israeli will admit that they are more afraid of IDF and the Israeli government than the terrorists.
I cannot even imagine what kind of experiences they had in Gaza to make such a statement.
Given the general nature of information released, some lower level employee with anti-Israeli sentiments could easily have access to such documents.
According to Tritan Parsi that “lower level employee” already has been excluded:
Two, an actor within the U.S. government may have leaked it, but the investigation of the U.S. government itself appears to have concluded otherwise. They have moved on to investigating outside actors.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/leaked-classified-documents-israel/
Thx, clearer analysis of the possible sources of this leak (or “leak”). Maybe someday we’ll learn the real story; more likely, we’ll forget about it after the attack finally happens.
The actual info in the leak doesn’t seem that useful to Iran, in terms of defending itself from the (inevitable) attack; the fact that it was leaked seems like bigger news than the actual content.
TTG – may I submit a sitrep from Crooke? I think one of the most knowledgeable commentators on the Middle East. Mentions Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon.
https://youtu.be/vx6E3eywKk0?t=137
Hochstein also mentioned here:-
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/envoy-hochstein-says-us-working-with-lebanon-israel-end-conflict-good-2024-10-21/
Extraordinary events in Berlin. Seems Scholz and Baerbock are all in. Biden honoured by Steinmeier. Only the minority parties objecting. Series of videos here making it quite clear that Germany is with Biden and Starmer. So that’s the governments of my three favourite countries cheering the carnage on. The fourth, Ireland, not so keen on it. Éirinn go brách.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/germany-cant-stop-digging.html
With what is already known about UK assistance to Israel, looks like a clean sweep. As said to D 74 above, ” … the reality we see is the US, the UK and Germany weeping crocodile tears over the atrocities whilst diligently supplying the Israelis with the weapons, the Intel, and the support to carry them out.”
I’m having trouble finding any info on the “Golden Horizon” ALBM referenced in the leak. I presume that it’s a homegrown Israeli missile? First level searches get redirected to an Album by a band named “Golden Horizon”; all relevant links seem to point only to articles about the new leaks. This can’t be an entirely new weapon, though it could be a US code-name for something else (like “Rocks” seems to be a nickname for “ISO2” ALBMs).
Anybody got links which will help explain details on these missiles (range, payload, etc)?
Elkern –
https://www.twz.com/air/mystery-weapon-appears-in-iraqi-field-after-israeli-strike
Lora ALBM?
take a leak used to be an expression.at one time.or even better the one about a leaky boat.or leaky fuel tanker.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-one-killed-fire-refinery-irans-khuzestan-province-state-media-says-2024-10-15/
israel had no missiles anyway.