Assuming (for the moment) that Israel is serious in its statments that the purpose of its war with Hamas is not the destruction of Hamas but rather the ending of rocket and mortar fIre into Israel, then the conclusion is inescapable that the IDF will have to occupy significant parts of the Gaza Strip indefinitely.
– The Hamasniks have a virtually inexhaustible supply of ammunition.
– The weapons can be fired from a virtually infinite number of impromptu positions.
– The Hamas habit of firing from outside the towns can be changed so that the weapons are fired from within the population centers.
– The towns will be splendid defensive terrain when they are more thoroughly "trashed." i.e. Cassino, Stalingrad, Hue, etc.
All of this adds up to a long residene for the IDF in Gaza. They now have the Golani, Givati and Paratroop brigades in Gaza backed up by some as yet unidentified armored units. Those are the best troops in the IDF. They will eventually have to be rotated out of there. Who will be next in Gaza? Forty year old reservists from the Tel Aviv suburbs? Yes. I know that the girls won’t serve in combat but it is a nice picture.
What am I missing here? pl
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090104/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_palestinians
What you may be missing is that the operation on needs to last long enough to get Barak and Livni elected.
I entirely agree that it very hard to see where all this is going. Long-term occupation is hardly in Israel’s interests.
The only point I think is that it is clear to my mind that the operation has been carefully prepared.When Haaretz said six months, I can believe it.
One would have thought Israel must have a plan prepared of where they want to be, even if we haven’t yet figured out what it is.
Their war-plan hasn’t been derailed yet, I think.
A lot depends on how much the zionists have managed to corrupt Hamas through their use of collaborators, mostly people with relatives under the hammer in zionist jails. A large part of Hezbollah’s success is due to its ability to weed out traitors and block zionist access to its defensive schemes.
That will be tougher for Hamas since it is probably riddled with informers. It will take mujahadeen from other formations, Islamic Jihad for sure, to carry the fight.
I think a lot also depends on the pressure brought to bear on the Rafah crossing point, both literally and figuratively. The zionist invasion was probably timed to an actuarial tee, although disgust with them seems to have reached the boil faster than it did in Lebanon.
It is especially encouraging to see poll numbers showing 41% of Americans opposed to the invasion, this despite a total filtering of anything even remotely sympathetic to Palestina.
If Americans could see a tiny part of the images we see, i believe that the essential American values of fair play and decency would carry the day.
Colonel.
Don’t tease the rest of us with Rhetorical questions you already know the answer too.
What’s happening in Gaza right now is driven by tactical politics, not National Strategy.
DaveGood
“One would have thought Israel must have a plan prepared of where they want to be, even if we haven’t yet figured out what it is.”
I have to cynically disagree. There is fierce tension between Kadima and Barak, and it seems entirely possible that military objectives have already been changed around on account of the military campaign and the election campaign becoming indistinguishable from each other.
The entire news flow to the outside world is dictated by the Israeli Military censors. Even Al-jazeera/english has little information on what really is happening inside Gaza. Last march Checkpoint Jerusalem published the Israeli military censorship rules verbatim.
Remember Lebanon in 2006. Accoring to the western media Israel was winning up until the 34th day when they lost.
1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to permanently defeat the PLO and they were successful.
However, the invasion created Hizzbullah which is 2-0 versus the Israelis.
Lesson to learn: Artillery will always beat Mortars, but you have to live with the consequences of your actions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezzbollah
It’s hard to see how this operation benefits Barak and Livni’s election quest. Yes, Barak has gained in the polls–momentarily.
But as the operation drags on, malaise is likely to set in quickly (as in the Lebanon 2006 venture) as the Israeli electorate realizes that concrete, lasting results are nothing more than a mirage. People are likely to start kvetching about Barak and Livni’s utter cynicism and the utter senselessness of it all, particularly as more and more families get dragged into ground operations.
Negotiating a cease fire before the elctions will prove equally catastrophic for Barak and Livni, tantamount to an admission of failure, since they will be unlikely to get more security than the status quo ante.
It’s best for Barak, Livni, and Olmert to declare victory and look for secluded places to take their pensions.
Turkish President Erdogan wonders why the world isn’t rallying behind tiny, weak Gaza as it is attack by massive and well armed Israel in the same manner they got behind tiny, weak Georgia amid an assault from massive and well armed Russia.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=34337
-GSD
This is a horrific video of the aftermath of an Israeli bomb hitting a marketplace in Gaza. I can understand if you don’t post it, P.L. It is a trauma to the soul to watch, but I think we need to see what is really going on and why the Muslims hate the U.S. for supporting Isreal. Atrocities on both sides make it impossible for peace in the M.E.
http://buzznewsroom.com/video/banned-from-youtube-israel-defense-forces-attack-on-gaza-civilian-market/
What Barak and Livni appear to be trying to achieve is a repeat of the endgame in Lebanon:
· Occupy northern Gaza
· In response to the international outcry for a ceasefire and withdrawal, say you will only hand over to an international force which will police and pacify the border
· Have Abbas accept such a force “on behalf of the Gazans”.
Voila, no more rockets, general rejoicing, jubilation and adulation, a sweet election victory, live happily ever after.
What will detonate this pipedream is the inconvenient fact that the Lebanese government’s acceptance of the UN force was irrelevant; what mattered was Hizbullah’s agreement. Abbas’s position is equally irrelevant. Hamas, because of their differing circumstances, will not accept any international force. Without their agreement, no such force is likely to materialize, and if some countries are foolhardy enough to send in troops, Hamas will make their stay short and very unpleasant.
Israel had probably hoped that, by targeting and destroying Hamas’s governmental and police structure, it would enable Fatah to take over Gaza (no doubt their Fatah collaborators would have fed them bold claims). Hamas is conserving its power (as evident by its initial reaction to the Israeli ground invasion) and is obviously prepared for a long struggle – against Israel, an international force or any Fatah imposition.
The result of all this is probably going to be Netanyahu – and deep trouble for everyone else. Barack Obama is going to face his first test by fire sooner than he had expected.
It was mentioned on another blog that maybe the use of the new GBU-39 munitions recently received from the US, smaller bunker busting bombs, may be a dress rehearsal for an attack on Iran. It makes some sense since the stated reasons for the Israeli invasion don’t seem to hold water, as you noted.
Something we acknowledge without thoroughly dissecting is the role of the changing US Administrations. Hamas and Israeli leaders performed a very particular calculus on our domestic political situation. The timing of the conflict, on both sides, has as much to do with the loss of the most permissive administration regarding the Palestine issue as it does any other single issue. Many argue that Obama will not and cannot change course in Palestine. They point to Rahm Emanuel and HRC as dyed-in-the-wool defenders of Zion as proof that Obama will do nothing different.
Then why now? Why are they fighting this war (from the U.S. point of view)? The election of Livni and Barak? The IDF would have their hands free during the waning days of Bush’s last term so might as well go for it. Okay. Reasonable. But why would Hamas provoke the war now, when the outcome from Israel’s largest political patron is certain? From a Hamas perspective, isn’t waiting for Obama better political strategy? If nothing else, the (more–not much but a little) divided Democrat Admin. would make it harder for Israel to do all it wanted to do without outside pressure.
Or did Israel just squeeze Hamas on this timetable till they burst? There may be internal domestic reasons Hamas chose this fight now, but someone better informed in the events of Palestine would have to tell me what they are. Please?
Kosovans want a state they have no real historical right to?
International response:
By all means!
Russians want to put down some petty local upstarts in using massively superior firepower?
International response:
Outcry and indignation and talk of third world war!
Now replace Kosovans with Palestinians and Russians with Israelis and simply swap the international response.
The Arabs or at least the Arab street need the likes of Nasrallah to stop beating about the bush(pardon the pun). They need to be told that allowing their potentates to stay in power makes them the biggest conspirators against the Palestinians.
Usually, I am a rational contributor. Even in ’06 I was rational but that was because we had a fighting chance.
The Gazans have no chance, no protection, no justice.
If I was honest about how angry I am, I would most likely be asked not to post here again.
But if this “war” has done this to me, what has it done to the desperate and embittered youth in Palestine? How many have seen this as the straw that pushes them to “sign up”? By God I hope its thousands.
Excellent comment, Furrukh.
The Israeli leadership seems to have fallen captive to a fundamentally delusional worldview. Or perhaps they are so existentially exhausted and internally divided that truly fresh initiatives are simply impossible. Whatever the case, although most of their policies have repeatedly failed (indeed not only failed but also worsened their strategic position) their only response seems to be to adopt broadly the same tactics.
As far as I can see, they now risk generating lasting worldwide revulsion. Certainly, I struggle to see how this can end any way but disastrously from the Israeli point of view. In the midst of their terrible suffering, there is at least the slight possibility of upside for the Palestinians.
Lord, what a mess.
In response to Ormolov… what do you mean Hamas provoked them now? The truce was broken November 4th by the Israeli’s. The Hamas truce had, in large part, held.
The longer a war goes on, the more certain & the more numerous are the unforeseen consequences. WWI was supposed to be 30 days. The second Gulf War was supposed to be 30 days. Wars are so often sold as brief affairs, they are so often not. I can’t imagine Israel dragging this out past the end of the month, regardless of motive, outcome or consequence.
Hosni Mubarak is 80 years old – 4 May 1928. He must have many potential successors, all eager.
Gaza under Israeli ‘control’ is for all intents and purposes now a ‘prison camp under siege’.
majii
I want to make sure that you understand that I do not think it is possible for the Israelis to “succeed.”
Mo
Blast away. pl
Mo and Ingolf,I’m with you. This kind of emotional revulsion is obviously required to get us comfy westerners off our asses and onto our politicians.
A former armchair warrior, with juvenile fantasies of being a katsa to Israel have now been displaced by fantasies that Israel will so outrage public opinion that it will invaded, disarmed and forced to make peace before it is attacked and destroyed completely.
Of course, that’s a complete fantasy, unless we force our governments to oppose Israeli actions in order to secure its future, which is my rational, charitable, fantasy. During these attacks, I just wish someone would drop a bomb on the damn country and destroy it – after which I pray for calm and forgiveness.
So the best course of action for me is to write every politician I can – hard mail, not email, and carry an informed discussion to my apathetic friends and colleagues, in hopes of turning them against Israel and its supporters, one of the biggest ones being our own flathead Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Sadly, flatheads are impervious to fact, argument, reason and anybody else’s blood. Ergo, they must be resolutely discredited, hounded for ceasefires and removal of arms, money and legitimacy from Israel by the only force they are susceptible to – removal from office.
RE; “purpose of its war with Hamas is… the ending of rocket and mortar fIre into Israel”
That’s ridiculous. These home-made unguided missiles are just pipes filled with fertilizer-based explosives. They are simply designed to go up and over the prison-fence surrounding Gaza. In 2006, the Israeli Ministry of Defense viewed the Qassams as “more a psychological than physical threat.” But now apparently they are a grave danger to the very survival of the Jewish State. Recently, I heard that the new goal is to go after the dreaded rocket launchers (see link below). This is beyond ridiculous. The Israelis could Grozny every city and the next morning a couple of guys could assemble a Qassam in the rubble and launch it by noon.
Photo of Qassam missiles:
http://tinyurl.com/7gwgw9
Photo of rocket launchers:
http://tinyurl.com/9yd45g
Bennycasino
Yes. Iran is just like Gaza – a mere 2-5 minutes flight-time from Israeli airbases, with no airforce, no air defence or radar systems, no strategic depth, no industrial base, no world-class strategic advantages and suffering under a permanent economic blockade which has prevented any and all export activities for years, enforced by Israeli tanks, aircraft and naval assets whilst suffering regular military assaults, and the ongoing desruction of its public infrastructure over many many years. Yes, Iran is just like Gaza, just like Lebanon, just like Afghanistan, just like Georgia, and just like Iraq.
Today attended a fundraiser for Gaza humanitarian relief. 1000 people present, $500k raised. The question was asked a while back whether the conflict was morphing from being seen as an Israeli-Arab one to an Israeli-Muslim one. From the donor population observed, I think that may be so, and as well, going by my own and others’ participation, maybe it is also morphing to become an Israeli-Christian conflict.
It is hard to imagine that the Israeli PR calculus is so foolish. So there must be an act 2 and act 3 in the script. We are presently only watching act 1 scene 2. Still it is always the priviledge of the audience to boo; we do not have to watch it all to know that a script is trash.
A member of the ruling party in Parliament in Ireland calls for the country to expel the Israeli ambassador in a letter in the Irish Times to-day. A very reasoned argument is given. Discussions lose their usefulness
Is your politition brave enough to call a spade a apade or say a murder in gaza is murder or say the perpetrators are nazis ? No?
That says it all.
An ‘eight step away’ consequence to Gaza, Round x(n): let me, or someone better ‘connected’, speak with the Boyz and Girlz in the Downtown War Zones and out in the Rural Poverty Zones in America, the ones who did not vote, the ones whose Aunties and Grandmas and Cousins elected Mr. Obama. Educate them as to just how hogtied Mr. Obama appears to be with this timing and see how angry they get – that is if they will stop with the sports and meth and crack cocaine and pornography addictions long enough to be a force.
AIPAC, or Livni, or R. Perle, or whomsoever orchestrated this Lame Duck Gaza Strategy forgot those people, again. When will those boyz and girlz remember themselves and say, Umm excuse me could you send the IDF over here? We want to talk with them. Yeah, they got them big fast planes, adn all them tanks and rough tough training killer Shinbet and Mossad. You think we don’t match up one on one? Think again. We be angry now that you run our banks and tvs. So we gonna talk.
Mo: I may be the most pro-Palestinian of anyone who posts here. Here’s I see the effects: short-term, Zionistas get a “win.” They kill a lot of Gazans and claim it is a military victory. Long-term: Fatah is finished as the legitimate voice of the Palestinians. Abbas, whose presidency term expires on Friday, will have to extend his term by decree. He can’t call for elections because Fatah would lose. Abbas will rule as the Pierre Laval of a Palestinian “Vichy state”. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vichy_France
I’m not sure that this is precisely relevant to the discussion at hand–but I do think that it is relevant to the larger picture:
I have been struck in reading coverage of the Israeli incursion (invasion, operation, whatever) into Gaza, and their air operations preceding and in support of it, by the MUCH more ready and facile comparison of their behavior with that of the Germans in WWII.
I’m wondering if the “exercise” that the Israelis are currently engaged in has crossed some Rubicon in the Court of Public Opinion–and that’s not a trivial question, because a huge part of Israel’s MO has been to depend on the populace of the US and Europe to cut them essentiallyh infinite amounts of slack on the basis of the Holocaust.
Seriously, if their behavior is beginning to draw comparisons with the Germans in WWII, there are some real, higher-order policy issues that Israel needs to come to grips with, and NOW, not “some day soon”.
If it’s an issue, I can find references to the German comparisons, but I’m going to hold off on that unless it’s requested…
Mo writes: They need to be told that allowing their potentates to stay in power makes them the biggest conspirators against the Palestinians.
I used to laugh at/with Nasrallah – he is funny sometimes – but I agree with this completely. The two main enemies of the Palestinians and Muslims in general are Mubarak and the Hashemite dumpling, whose price for being supplied with young boys is his sickening betrayal of the religion of the Prophet and complicity in the destruction of the Palestinian people.
The energy spent on maintaining these pigs in power comes from the US – which ridiculously asserts its committment to ‘democracy’ in the region while clamping down on it.
Fortunately young people see that charade for what it is.
Plan B? Or is it the usual (these days) “no Plan B”?
Gee, if we had only given our magical missile defense shield to Israel this conflict would not have been necessary.
castellio,
I am no friend of Israel’s aggression, and am happy to be corrected. I can only say that I heard from many sources, perhaps too many MSM, that Hamas had ended their six-month cease-fire. Days afterward it was reported that the rocket attacks had begun. Days after that, Israel started bombing.
Ultimately, I think you’ll agree it’s a straw man, though. Whether Hamas did this or that or whatever, the mere fact that a religious war is being prosecuted on a population of two million in the guise of a panopticon prison with dwindling rations has no other possible result than this violent uprising. Anyone who makes demands of Hamas or the Palestinians right now is breathtakingly immoral.
“Many argue that Obama will not and cannot change course in Palestine. They point to Rahm Emanuel and HRC as dyed-in-the-wool defenders of Zion as proof that Obama will do nothing different”
the israeli public relations campaign (should i say propoganda) flooed the sunday talk shows with spokesmen trying to paint obama into a corner by saying that on the basis of remarks that he made during the presidential campaign, he obama appropves of their action to protect “their children from rocket attacks”
i don’t feel able to predict how obama administration will differ from bush but it will
an unprecedented era of obsequious support by the united states government has ended, bush, cheney, condi, the neocons, the tom delay’s and the evangelicals are gone from power
from wikipedia
On 28 September 2000, Sharon and an escort of over 1,000 Israeli police officers visited the Temple Mount complex, site of the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque, the holiest place in the world to Jews and the third holiest site in Islam. Sharon declared that the complex would remain under perpetual Israeli control. Palestinian commentators accused Sharon of purposely inflaming emotions with the event to provoke a violent response and obstruct success of delicate ongoing peace talks. On the following day, a large number of Palestinian demonstrators and an Israeli police contingent confronted each other at the site.
According to the U.S. State department, “Palestinians held large demonstrations and threw stones at police in the vicinity of the Western Wall. Police used rubber-coated metal bullets and live ammunition to disperse the demonstrators, killing 4 persons and injuring about 200.” According to the GOI, 14 policemen were injured.
Sharon’s visit, a few months before his election as Prime Minister, came after archeologists claimed that extensive building operations at the site were destroying priceless antiquities. Sharon’s supporters point out that Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian National Authority planned the intifada months prior to Sharon’s visit.[15][16][17] They state that Palestinian security chief Jabril Rajoub provided assurances that if Sharon did not enter the mosques, no problems would arise. They also often quote statements by Palestinian Authority officials, particularly Imad Falouji, the P.A. Communications Minister, who admitted months after Sharon’s visit that the violence had been planned in July, far in advance of Sharon’s visit, stating the intifada “was carefully planned since the return of (Palestinian President) Yasser Arafat from Camp David negotiations rejecting the U.S. conditions”.[18]
According to the Mitchell Report,
the government of Israel asserted that the immediate catalyst for the violence was the breakdown of the Camp David negotiations on 25 July 2000 and the “widespread appreciation in the international community of Palestinian responsibility for the impasse.” In this view, Palestinian violence was planned by the PA leadership, and was aimed at “provoking and incurring Palestinian casualties as a means of regaining the diplomatic initiative.”
The Mitchell Report found that
the Sharon visit did not cause the Al-Aqsa Intifada. But it was poorly timed and the provocative effect should have been foreseen; indeed, it was foreseen by those who urged that the visit be prohibited. More significant were the events that followed: The decision of the Israeli police on 29 September to use lethal means against the Palestinian demonstrators.
In addition, the report stated,
Accordingly, we have no basis on which to conclude that there was a deliberate plan by the PA to initiate a campaign of violence at the first opportunity; or to conclude that there was a deliberate plan by the GOI to respond with lethal force.[19] …….
sharon killed off clinton’s work in the camp david accords and the bushies joined him in blaming the plo for killing if off
hilary clinton is now the secretary of state
For those who think this is a sudden, and possibly rash, event forced on Israel by intolerable Hamas rocketing whose patience finally snapped….
(Essentially Israel’s line)
The Israeli media, at least some sections of it, are reporting that all of this was planned and set in motion six months ago.
This is not a “Spontaneous” reaction by Israel.
We’re watching the end game of a sophisticated thought out War Plan that includes political and military misdirection designed to wrong foot Hamas being played out.
Which is why (so far) it has gone a lot better then Lebanon 06.
The goal on both Sides now is to get a more secure political grip over their own populations by climbing over piles of corpses.
And both sides may well succeed.
DaveGood
Col. Lang,
It is certainly hard to figure out what Israel is trying to do, considering all the contradictory statements coming from the government. My sense is that Israel understands the impracticality of re-occupation and therefore its goals are more political – a long term ceasefire on Israeli terms. So it appears to me the Gaza operation will most likely be a short-term punitive expedition designed to set Hamas back enough to force it to cease rocket attacks while it rebuilds, reconstitutes and resupplies. Assuming this strategy is reasonable and can succeed (a questionable assumption), this entire operation appears to provide Israel with little to no long-term benefit while incurring a significant long-term cost.
– I think Hamas will opt for long and low intensity urban battle. They know Israel has bad long term logistic capability. So I anticipate 5-10 yrs war.
– Gaza will be the lab for Hezbollah and Iran to try all their tricks and study the Israelis performance.
– Obama administration policy for middle east is now out of the window, if they plan to play neoliberal hawk. (eg. we support Israel diplomatically, but won’t agree on more war.) They have to play either internationalist gambit (and bet all worlds goodwill in the first months of adminstration) or play the old neocon game (easiest playbook to follow, do the same dance)
With Hillary in charge, I would say she will try all 3 and end up with old neocon game. So: Israel long term occupation + a lot of US military aid to Israel.
– I found it interesting that the Israelis are attacking from the north. Very cautious. Wouldn’t it be easier to go right from the middle and split Gaza into 2 zones, then squeeze from the north? I mean Israel weakness is long term logistic on top of international pressure. They want to get in and get out of Gaza quickly. Unless of course, they want to occupy gaza and use it as bargaining chip against Obama team.
But then all Obama has to do si: well you are in a lot of hurting, why should I care if I help you clean up your mess or not. How is getting shot in Gaza feel?
– It’s now Hamas turns to show what they can do. If they survive January. They are the guy in charge of Palestine. Clock is ticking.
How far can Israel go before the so called “leaders” of the Western world actually say enough? What is the quota of dead children that they are allowed? It certainly seems to be higher than anyone else’s.
But the time for discussing who started what is over. The Israelis have made revisionist history an art form. While most people are ready to wait 30, 40 or even a hundred years before changing history, the Israelis, much like they did in Lebanon in 06 with the myth of Hizballahs rockets, can now not only do revisionist history in days but so well that the lazy, cretinous media buys it with so much as a “thats not how I remember it”.
Well the Israelis have made it clear today that anyone or anything “associated” with Hamas is a legitimate target. Thats quite an open ended statement. It allows you to basically target whomever you want.
Good.
There are therefore no more innocent Israeli civilians. Since each and everyone of them will do military service, will be expected to fight then each Israeli is “associated” with the Israeli military.
Fairs fair right?
Funny how the brainwashing lasts all these years. When looking at the photo of the women, the first thing I thought of was that the one on the left is out of uniform with those sandals and that backpack. And their hair is too long. And the one on the right appears to be wearing black tennis shoes. What kind of force is this? I’ve been out almost 20 years and still check my gig line!
Now to what is really important.
A hunch is forming that Hamas wanted to provoke Israel into overacting. Looking at worldwide public opinion, maybe that was their intention. If so, that’s pretty dastardly to put your own people at risk like that. Of course, everyone killed by an Israeli ordnance is probably a martyr.
Or they are just pissed off and desperate.
I don’t know.
I agree completely.
I do not see a feasible endgame to the invasion of Gaza that wins anything tangible for Israel. All the endgames I can forsee produce some form or other of Israeli defeat. Once they went for a ground invasion, they restricted their range of outcomes to those available to naked force only.
Assume for the sake of argument that the IDF manages to completely wipe out the leadership of Hamas. Then all they’ll get for their pains is a successor organization that’ll make Hamas look like peaceniks.
The only way they can get a permanent cessation of the nuisance attacks from Gaza is to completely depopulate the place of Palestinians, by some mixture of extermination and forced emigration.
This might have gone down well enough with Bush and the nominal 1/4 of the US population that are hardcore right wingers. It won’t go down so well with the other 3/4, or with President Obama. No matter what his Israel policy starts out as.
And if American support goes bye-bye, Israel’s long term outlook is not promising.
“I’m wondering if the “exercise” that the Israelis are currently engaged in has crossed some Rubicon in the Court of Public Opinion–and that’s not a trivial question, because a huge part of Israel’s MO has been to depend on the populace of the US and Europe to cut them essentiallyh infinite amounts of slack on the basis of the Holocaust.”
As far as most american conservatives are concerned, the only good palestinian is a dead one. On the other side there are enough pro israel liberals to make any mainstream democratic politician balk. Everyone else (non politically engaged americans, europeans, arabs etc.) simply does not matter.
As long the US maintains its current economic/warfare potential things won’t change.
I suspect the only israeli weakness is some essential sections of the population getting exhausted and emigrating elsewhere.
” The question was asked a while back whether the conflict was morphing from being seen as an Israeli-Arab one to an Israeli-Muslim one.”
An interesting point. Turkey’s PM lashed out in extraordinarily harsh terms at Israel just a day ago. According to Debka (yeah, I know) he’s considering canceling joint military exercises.
This is big news. Turkey recognized Israel back in ’48. Military to military cooperation has been, close, or so I’ve heard. But I don’t think the Turkish public happy about Gaza. Or for that matter about Iraq.
It’s too early to say there’s going to be a permanent rift between Israel and Turkey. But if there is, on whose side will America fall? Bear in mind Turkey has been a **REAL** ally of the U.S. even when the chips are down.
“It’s Hell in Here”
“They are Bombing 1.5 million People in a Cage”
CBS News broadcasts an interview with a Norwegian physician on the scene in Gaza.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev6ojm62qwA
From yesterday’s post on Juan Cole’s blog: Informed Comment (JuanCole.com)
In January 2006, driven forward by pressure from the Bush Administration a general election was held in the Palestinian territories. (Note, the Israelis opposed allowing the Palestinian election, because they knew what the out come would be, but over-ruled by the Bushites who thought they knew better.)
The election was overseen and monitored by outside observers who were unanimous in calling it free, transparent, open and conducted without violence.
The result?
Hamas won 74 seats to Fatah’s 45.
Today it’s almost forgotten that in the only open and fair election held by the Palestinians, Hamas won and is now the legitimate government of Palestinian territories.
The Neo-cons in the Bush administration, expecting Fatah to win, were outraged that Palestinians dared to vote in such a way and immediately began reprisals.
This exercise in Democracy was instantly punished by an American led “shut off” of all forms of outside aid and support to the Palestinian people upon which they depend.
Despite the sanctions and some successful efforts at intercepting supplies along the Palestinian border, Hamas leaders were able to smuggle in enough money and other goods to keep
a basic health and education system going.
Fatah, despite it’s defeat in the election, retained control of Palestinian security forces and Fatah commanders refused to take orders from the Hamas Government.
From January onwards Fatah began a program of killing, bombing and abductions aimed at Hamas leaders, Hamas responded in kind, Ninety people were killed..
Meanwhile, back in Washington, Elliot Abrams, Deputy National Security Adviser for Global Democracy Strategy, convicted felon on two counts of misleading Congress, and “the last Neo-con standing” according to Newsweek, had a plan.
Keep in mind from this point on that that Abrams official job description is to “Promote Democracy Globally”.
Within days of Hamas winning the 2006 election Abrams informed a group of visiting Palestinian businessman that a “Hard Coup” was needed and the United States would organize the supply of weapons, money and training to Fatah in an effort to overthrow, through violence, a newly elected Government.
America was about to covertly fund, train and arm one side in a civil war to overturn the results of a free and fair election.
These were to be the forces controlled by President Abu Mazen ( Whose Fatah party had just been heavily defeated in an open election) and west bank Warlord Mohammad Dahlan.
The idea that America’s partners in In Palestine were now going to be Mazen and Dahlan was treated with open derision across the Arab and Israeli world.
Thousands of weapons ( purchased with American tax dollars) were poured into Fatah hands via Eygpt and Jordan. tens of millions more were spent on beefing up the Fatah fighters via training at two camps in Ramallah and Jericho.
While all of this went unreported in Western MSM it was widely discussed in Arab and Israeli media.
When Rumsfeld ( Still sec of defense at the time) learned of this he was outraged, seeing that it could and would back fire, galvanising more resistance to American troops occupying Iraq.
He insisted on a meeting with Bush to discuss it but lost the argument. Bush told him this was a State Dept (Rice) matter, not Defense.
The Pentagon was against the program (“Stupid” and “Counter-productive” “This is not going to work and everyone knows it won’t work. It is too clever. We’re just not very good at this. This is typical Abrams stuff.”), the CIA opinion was it wouldn’t work and they didn’t like it, Jordan and Egypt ( who have no love for Hamas) hated the idea thinking that not only would it fail, it could expose them to backlash from their own peoples, the US Embassy in Israel was against it, as was Israel.
Israel was against it on at least two counts
1. They hadn’t wanted the election held in the first place because they knew Hamas would win…..Hamas and it’s leadership was and is widely seen, throughout the Arab world as competent, transparent, uncorrupt and unwilling to compromise their ideals — (just the kinds of democratically elected leaders that the Bush Administration would want to support anywhere else in the Middle East)— and that a civil war backing the other side was not going to change that.
2. On general principles Israel did not want hundreds of tons of weaponry and ammunition plus training on how to use it, pumped to Palestinians of whatever faction.
At first the program was handed, by Bush, to the CIA to run, who hated the whole idea and somehow wriggled out of it handing it back to the State department where Rice, Abrams, David Welch and ( From the VP’s office)David Wurmser and John Hannah were its advocates.
So the funding for this all of this appears to have come from the State Departments “Middle East Partnership Initiative” approved by Congress to establish and promote democracy throughout the region.
If that is the case, for the second time, Abrams has succeeded in diverting funds Congress meant to promote democracy into buying weapons for one side in another countries Civil war. Exactly what he was convicted for ( Lying to Congress about) back in 1991.
DaveGood
When the last israeli troops leave Gaza, it is almost certain that Hamas will fire rockets into israel. If Israel does not respond, they look weak, and if they do, they risk looking like an impotent bully.
What if their response to rockets were proportionate, automatic and instantaneous?
Announce to the world that they have an automated artillery response that will fire rounds into Gaza as soon as any incoming rounds are detected. Make it clear that these rounds are targeted at populated areas, and are not an effort to hit an elusive mobile rocket launcher, but are intended to make it clear that when Hamas fires at Israel, they are simultaneously firing at their own people.
Counter mortar radars and automated fire control could respond while incoming rockets were still in the air. Israeli artillery would be far deadlier than Hamas rockets, and that might cause Hamas to lose support among the Palestinians. Hamas gunners who saw muzzle flashes of Israeli artillery immediately after they launched, and who saw Israeli artillery landing on their own people at the same time as their rockets impacted in Israel might begin to question what they were accomplishing.
Hearing their own artillery firing after an air raid warning would not make the Israeli civilians happy about the situation, but it would have the virtue of being an immediate response. Of course the real objective would be to end such attacks.
In January 2006, driven forward by pressure from the Bush Administration a general election was held in the Palestinian territories. (Note, the Israelis opposed allowing the Palestinian election, because they knew what the out come would be, but over-ruled by the Bushites who thought they knew better.)
The election was overseen and monitored by outside observers who were unanimous in calling it free, transparent, open and conducted without violence.
The result?
Hamas won 74 seats to Fatah’s 45.
Today it’s almost forgotten that in the only open and fair election held by the Palestinians, Hamas won and is now the legitimate government of Palestinian territories.
The Neo-cons in the Bush administration, expecting Fatah to win, were outraged that Palestinians dared to vote in such a way and immediately began reprisals.
This exercise in Democracy was instantly punished by an American led “shut off” of all forms of outside aid and support to the Palestinian people upon which they depend.
Despite the sanctions and some successful efforts at intercepting supplies along the Palestinian border, Hamas leaders were able to smuggle in enough money and other goods to keep
a basic health and education system going.
Fatah, despite it’s defeat in the election, retained control of Palestinian security forces and Fatah commanders refused to take orders from the Hamas Government.
From January onwards Fatah began a program of killing, bombing and abductions aimed at Hamas leaders, Hamas responded in kind, Ninety people were killed..
Meanwhile, back in Washington, Elliot Abrams, Deputy National Security Adviser for Global Democracy Strategy, convicted felon on two counts of misleading Congress, and “the last Neo-con standing” according to Newsweek, had a plan.
Keep in mind from this point on that that Abrams official job description is to “Promote Democracy Globally”.
Within days of Hamas winning the 2006 election Abrams informed a group of visiting Palestinian businessman that a “Hard Coup” was needed and the United States would organize the supply of weapons, money and training to Fatah in an effort to overthrow, through violence, a newly elected Government.
America was about to covertly fund, train and arm one side in a civil war to overturn the results of a free and fair election.
These were to be the forces controlled by President Abu Mazen ( Whose Fatah party had just been heavily defeated in an open election) and west bank Warlord Mohammad Dahlan.
The idea that America’s partners in In Palestine were now going to be Mazen and Dahlan was treated with open derision across the Arab and Israeli world.
Thousands of weapons ( purchased with American tax dollars) were poured into Fatah hands via Eygpt and Jordan. tens of millions more were spent on beefing up the Fatah fighters via training at two camps in Ramallah and Jericho.
While all of this went unreported in Western MSM it was widely discussed in Arab and Israeli media.
When Rumsfeld ( Still sec of defense at the time) learned of this he was outraged, seeing that it could and would back fire, galvanising more resistance to American troops occupying Iraq.
He insisted on a meeting with Bush to discuss it but lost the argument. Bush told him this was a State Dept (Rice) matter, not Defense.
The Pentagon was against the program (“Stupid” and “Counter-productive” “This is not going to work and everyone knows it won’t work. It is too clever. We’re just not very good at this. This is typical Abrams stuff.”), the CIA opinion was it wouldn’t work and they didn’t like it, Jordan and Egypt ( who have no love for Hamas) hated the idea thinking that not only would it fail, it could expose them to backlash from their own peoples, the US Embassy in Israel was against it, as was Israel.
Israel was against it on at least two counts
1. They hadn’t wanted the election held in the first place because they knew Hamas would win…..Hamas and it’s leadership was and is widely seen, throughout the Arab world as competent, transparent, uncorrupt and unwilling to compromise their ideals — (just the kinds of democratically elected leaders that the Bush Administration would want to support anywhere else in the Middle East)— and that a civil war backing the other side was not going to change that.
2. On general principles Israel did not want hundreds of tons of weaponry and ammunition plus training on how to use it, pumped to Palestinians of whatever faction.
At first the program was handed, by Bush, to the CIA to run, who hated the whole idea and somehow wriggled out of it handing it back to the State department where Rice, Abrams, David Welch and ( From the VP’s office)David Wurmser and John Hannah were its advocates.
So the funding for this all of this appears to have come from the State Departments “Middle East Partnership Initiative” approved by Congress to establish and promote democracy throughout the region.
If that is the case, for the second time, Abrams has succeeded in diverting funds Congress meant to promote democracy into buying weapons for one side in another countries Civil war. Exactly what he was convicted for ( Lying to Congress about) back in 1991.
DaveGood
“You can make peace with a man whose father you killed only if you do not steal his land.”
Niccolo Machiavell to the Prince
The expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank are evidence in concrete that Israel does not want peace. Any diplomatic initiative that does not directly confront this issue is mere window dressing.
If we Americans want peace, we must work for justice for the Palestinians.