RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 10 JUNE 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

PUTIN-BIDEN. I can’t think why Putin wants to waste his time unless it’s to assess Biden’s mental capacity – imagine this guy going up against someone who can hold four-hour press conferences without dropping a thought. Doctorow has a theory that makes sense for both sides: “the summit has one driver behind it, namely to put a cap on an arms race that the United States is losing” but he wonders if the Americans do actually get it. I half expect Washington to cancel it on some pretext and there are plenty of indications – see below – that Biden will try and talk tough.

QUOTE OF THE “NEW AMERICAN CENTURY”. “Biden has told his aides he believes Putin responds to signs of strength, something he feels is better conveyed in person rather than over the phone.

WESTERN VALUES™. Good start to Biden lecturing Putin on interfering, isn’t it? And after Obama promised her too.

COVID AND RUSSIA. Essentially over. Meanwhile, in a 1984 moment, in the West, the crackpot lunatic fringe conspiracy of yesterday has suddenly became today’s rational conventional thinking.

USD. The Finance Minister says that the National Wealth Fund will get rid of its USD holdings “quite quickly”: afterwards EUR 40%, RMB 30%, GBP 5%, JPY 5% and Gold 20%. Gradually, the dollar is becoming toxic.” Convenient once, when a weapon not convenient. Another unintended consequence of PNAC arrogance.

AMAZON AND RUSSIA. Interesting piece on why Amazon hasn’t cracked the Russian market. Short answer: Russia has its own. In fact, Russia is rather independent of the mostly-US-based social media empires. Yandex, VK and Telegram are home-grown, strong there and spreading (In my experience VK, because it doesn’t censor, is gaining on Facebook). Ozon, Lamoda and Wildberries handle e-commerce.

MORE EVIDENCE that Moscow has had enough and believes it has enough: Patrushev says it will use force when it believes it has to.

WESTERN FRONT. Minister of Defence Shoygu has announced further build-up of forces in the west. No details yet. As Kennan foresaw: the fruits of NATO expansion. The NATO GenSek wants to talk.

TOLD YOU (2121) (2020) (2015) (2014). The US military is finally noticing its shortcomings in the event of a war with a real opponent. To wit: hypersonic weapons, electronic warfare, defence against anti-ship missiles, air defence. Too late I think: but can the US MIC make anything these days other than cost over-runs? Vide F-35, littoral ships, Zumwalt, railgun.

GOOD QUESTION. If we’re declining so rapidly, what’s all the fuss about?

THE DEATH OF IRONY. “Russians will never be free unless the West takes decisive action” this from the guy videoed trying to sell Russia.

LIVING THE DREAM. Latest survey of EU inmates shows rather tepid enthusiasm for the project. I mention this because we’re always hearing dread things about Russia and we’re never given any context. The percentage of Russians who think Russia’s heading in the right direction has never, in a decade, been as low as the EU percentage is now. Or today’s US number. Think about that the next time you read some rubbish about how unhappy Russians are.

IFOs. Well, probably not aliens but they could be from Russia or China. Could be, might be, may be; but one thing’s for sure: US Space Command is dangerously short of money.

PROTASEVICH, RYANAIR AND MINSK. The now-established Western narrative is almost entirely false. He’s singing: he believes he was shopped by one of his “friends”.

THOSE PESKY RUSSIANS got Brit soldiers drunk and kicked off a train in Estonia. Bur, see below.

ENCOURAGING. Occasionally we learn the relentless anti-Russian propaganda isn’t working so well.

COLONIAL PIPELINE. But weren’t the supposed Russian hackers supposed to be incredibly clever? And yet they were incredibly stupid? Somebody’s stupid here, but I don’t think it’s anybody Russian.

UKRAINE-USA. Zelensky learns that the only thing worse than being Washington’s enemy is being its “strategic partner”: “I truly thought that when it came to Nord Stream 2, the United States remained the last standing outpost, so to say…we were very unpleasantly surprised.” And they didn’t even bother to call him first: “I learned about it through the press.” And, no the NATO carrot is still dangling way out there. You were useful for a while, that’s all; now you’re just a cost. Meanwhile: “donors were all young people from Ukraine and Moldova“. Country 404.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

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30 Responses to RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 10 JUNE 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

  1. Ed Lindgren says:

    When the Biden-Putin ‘Summit’ ends (assuming it happens), I expect that Putin will step outside for a little fresh air, he will glance up towards the heavens, and will silently offer a short prayer to his Russian Orthodox God:

    “Thank you for delivering unto me this senile fool as my principal global adversary.”

    • TheUnready says:

      Out of choice, I think Putin would prefer a competent, capable leader to steer America to a multi polar world. A sly, senile fool, with his finger on the button, can only be dangerous. Not least because he’s not in control of his administration….

      • Ed Lindgren says:

        Putin is a rational man so I agree that your comment is probably spot on.

        Although I am not sure who the American is who would be the “competent, capable leader to steer America to a multi polar world.”

        Any thoughts?

      • Deap says:

        Do you think Democrats really care anything about “Russia” unless they can’t use Russia, Russia. Russia to use the old Cold War scare against Trump and the GOP?

        Biden struck a lethal blow against Russia today – put Russia on the Level 4 Threat -Do Not Travel list – while sending support for Ukraine at the same time. Watch out for the Russki’s in Ukraine. That’ll show Vlad who is really running things.

    • leander says:

      his Russian Orthodox God

      what would be the equivalent of the American God? If I leave out other details that my matter, like senile versus verile et el?

  2. Clueless Joe says:

    “Putin responds to signs of strength, something he feels is better conveyed in person rather than over the phone”
    Biden should ask Sarkozy how well his meeting with Putin went, back in the day. Hint: he was so shaken that most people assumed he was drunk on vodka.

  3. JohninMK says:

    Re your comment on the Russians increasing their strength in their west. They have announced this week that a new squadron of Su-30SM are going to Kaliningrad and Mig-31K with Kinzhal (air launched Iskander ) to the Western Military District.

    It might not sound a lot but when NATO has almost no ground based air defence they, on their own, probably represent a significant threat all the way out to Iceland

  4. Deap says:

    On this very day, Killer Geriatric Joe impales Vlad:


    “Do not travel to Russia due to COVID-19. Exercise increased caution due terrorism, harassment, and the arbitrary enforcement of local laws.
    Read the Department of State¿s COVID-19 page before you plan any international travel.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Russia a due to COVID-19, indicating a high level of COVID-19 in the country. Visit the Embassy’s COVID-19 page for more information on COVID-19 in Russia. There are restrictions in place affecting U.S. citizen entry into Russia.

    Do Not Travel to:

    The North Caucasus, including Chechnya and Mount Elbrus, due to terrorism, kidnapping, and risk of civil unrest.

    Crimea due to Russia¿s occupation of the Ukrainian territory and abuses by its occupying authorities.

    Terrorist groups, transnational and local terrorist organizations, and individuals inspired by extremist ideology continue plotting possible attacks in Russia.

    Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, major sporting and cultural events, educational institutions, airports, and other public areas.”…..

    • Yeah, Right says:

      Based on that list it sounds vaguely like the State Department is describing those semi-regular mass shootings in the USA.

      • Deap says:

        Tucker Carslon channeled your observations: claims it is safer to immigrate to El Salvador today, than take your chances in many a Democrat-run blue US city. Data backs up this claim. You want to flee violence and corruption in Central America narco-states – head to El Salvador.

    • notlurking says:

      This is voluntary…very few people pay attention to these warnings as most of the times are politically motivated…this impalement is puny…

  5. Keith Harbaugh says:

    An extremely eminent, but now deceased, Russian mathematician, Igor R. Shafarevich,
    wrote a highly significant samizdat essay describing a key episode in Russian history which bears a strikingly exact parallel to what has been going on recently in the West:

    In Russophobia, [Shafarevich] argued in the essay that great nations experience periods in their history of reformist elitist groups (‘small nations’) having values that differ fundamentally from the values of the majority of the people but gaining the upper hand in the society.
    In Shafarevich’s opinion, the role of such a ‘small nation’ in Russia was played by a small group of intelligentsiya, dominated by Jews, who were
    full of hatred against traditional Russian way of life
    and played an active role in the terrorist regimes of Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin.
    For Shafarevich’s essay Russophobia itself, which I recommend highly, see:

    A distinguished (recepient of the Fields Medal) American mathematician, David Mumford, a man at the heart of both the American academic establishment (Brown and Harvard) and the world mathematical establishment, who knew Shafarevich well, wrote the following of Shafarevich:

    I did not believe then and do not believe now that he was anti-semitic, but rather that
    he was a fervent believer in his country, its people and its traditions — perhaps one should say its soul.

    Shafarevich had built in Moscow one of the best groups of mathematicians working on the synergistic fusion of algebraic geometry with algebraic number theory.
    He has a strong personality, is a wonderful teacher and is also quite religious (Eastern Orthodox).
    In addition he has thought deeply about social science and how history molds the character of a country.

    What I [David Mumford] failed to fully appreciate was
    the passion with which Japan, Israel and India were all driven by their intact — and strongly exclusive — cultures.

    Little did I know how strong Hindu culture is (though my wife, in love with Hindu myths, was enlightened by André Weil that she could not convert and the best she could hope for was to be born a dalit in her next life).

    As I see it now, there is a major conflict, not to be papered over, between
    the tolerant international liberal viewpoint and
    the passion with which each culture maintains its traditions and passes them on generation after generation.

    So Igor, wherever you are, I now look back on your essay “Russophobia” with more sympathy.
    I still feel that the persecution of Dalits in India and the apartheid of Palestinians in their homeland are evil
    but I also see how powerful is everyone’s link to their traditions.

    I would like to add a comment on some crimes that were committed in Russia.
    The killing, not merely of Czar Nicholas II, but his entire family,
    indicates a truly pathological hatred of the Romanov dynasty, an act of destruction which, AFAIK, has no parallel in the history of the West.
    OTOH, there were precedents in the history of Israel: ,
    if you get my drift.

    • Keith Harbaugh says:

      One afterthought:
      Some absolutely magnificent music has been written to accompany the story of Athaliah.
      See this performance of Handel’s Athaliah, from the designated start time to 58:20 :

    • Murali+Rao says:

      Sir, being a Hindu and as a person not love in with past persecution of Dalits in India but the culture is changing. First of all Hinduism is a very tolerant religion and accepts all the various thoughts. Secondly Hindus bore no disrespect to other cultures since they believe that God by what ever name pervades the whole universe. So you might say how come such people persecute Dalits. Actually the caste system was developed in ancient times, where the people realized the virtue of parents passing on their talents to their children (since actual learning happens not by talking but observing others), so the children being with their parents 24/7 till the age of maturity will learn the skills from their parents. Unfortunately this morphed and became regimented in the society in the past 2 or 3000 years. Leaders of India realized this weakness and since the independence of India they instituted a policy of preferential treatment not only for Dalits, but also all other classes of people in the society. So if you go to India (of course in villages are still stuck in the past, but they too are changing) you don’t see a BLM type of movement despite the fact there are lots and lots of NGO’s sponsored by the western elites. I am amazed at the level of intelligence of those illiterate people in India not falling for the BS that we see constantly in this country. Sometimes I wonder if people loose their common sense and substitute for propaganda. Thank you

      • Keith Harbaugh says:

        Murali+Rao, thank you for your thoughtful response.
        I certainly know next-to-nothing about India, aside from the fact that people from that subcontinent have made great contributions to mathematics, in both the past and present.

        OTOH, the American mathematician David Mumford seems to have a considerable interest in, and some knowledge of, your land.
        He has written quite a lengthy article on some issues concerning India:
        I submit it for your consideration, should you care to offer either agreement or disagreement with Mumford’s views.
        BTW, in the Comments section of Mumford’s post, several evidently native Indians have already offered comment.

      • LeaNder says:

        Unfortunately this morphed and became regimented in the society in the past 2 or 3000 years.

        As European, vs you the American with Indian roots, I understand, I admittedly am pleased I do not have to carry the load of all those centuries on my shoulders.

        Nevermind that 2 or 3000 years ago a lot of my ancestors, strictly there must be such, may not have been considered fully “human” at those points in time. Then and now? Would I be able to trace Neanderthal ancestors in my DNA? …

  6. Christian J. Chuba says:

    I love how our alleged ‘non-state media’ moves from one narrative to the next without questioning the failure of their previous narrative. As in What happened to the Navalny deathwatch? That was all CNN talked about for at least two weeks for more. They interviewed their Russia correspondents and Navalny reps and lawyers who ‘saw Navalny and were greatly concerned about his declining health’.
    Russia and Covid19
    I disagree with you here. I am still convinced that Russia is having production issue with Sputnik V and their other vaccine candidates and I am very curious what the issue is with that. In your link, the health minister was a bit squirrely about the total numbers and talked about regional shifting.
    Looking at the 7 day rolling average, the death rate in Russia has been stubbornly consistent
    (I used tiny url because the link has all kinds of stuff to select the boxes I wanted to show)

    BTW I looked more at vaccine production in general. Whew. Not easy to do. Feast or famine. Many, many stages, you go from nothing to having lots of doses and if you mess up one of the stages you ruin your batch. Pfizers first batch had a 120 day cycle. It aint easy.

  7. ISL says:

    Thanks as always for the SitRep,

    Doctrow only focuses on strategic missiles, perhaps being unaware of the changes in the other military aspects you note later in your summary. That said, the US almost always underestimates its enemies at the beginning of a war with respect to the war’s goals. And the intelligence failures (or politician ignoring of the intelligence) of late gives little hope, re, for example, how efficiently Russia moved armies to the Ukraine border. Either the IC missed, or Biden didn’t hear. Either are consistent with Idiocrats running the show.

    That said, its hard to imagine what level of Carrot Biden could offer to induce Russia to place controls on hypersonic weapons that would not be dead on arrival in DC given the political climate that demoncrats have created. Perhaps the US could offer to pull its nuclear forces (verifiably) out of Europe, leaving only very imbalanced conventional forces in Europe. And if the US was gong to offer, why did Biden pullout of the Open Skies treaty (which was in our advantage Re: numbers of flights) before the summit, removing the face saving blame it on Trump negotiating strategy.

    Given the failure of the recent US hypersonic missiles and Russian deployments, Russia has quite a few years before there is a reason to negotiate during which to get their S600 working. So, just what can Biden offer that wont have him lynched by the swamp-i-zens when he returns.

    And Doctrow neglects China in the equation – a US-Russia summit on strategic issues that does not include China can only be to try and entice Russia to align with the US against China, and the US could not QE enough US Dollars to make that happen!

    I think Biden is going to try and score some PR points…

    • LeaNder says:

      Would you care to clarify:
      “removing the face saving blame it on Trump negotiating strategy. ”

      In the process of his pullout he blamed it on Trump’s negotiating strategy? … ???

      Can’t be:
      Russia has quite a few years before there is a reason to negotiate during which to get their S600 working.

      Not up on US-Russia matters, beyond Patrick’s helpful sitrep’s and bits and pieces here and there. There still would have been a window of oportunity between 2017 and 2020? Trump’s Negoting Strategy was sabotaged by the Democrats during those years? His hands were bound by the larger Russiagate affair?

      nitwit question, I know, curious nevertheless.

      • ISL says:

        LeaNder, Biden could have blamed the current poor relationship with Russia with the US having pulled out of arms control treaties as all Trump’s fault and described himself in negotiations as turning over a new leaf.

        However, since Biden pulled the US out of Open Skies before the summit (rather than after), he can no longer claim its not him, too. Instead he has to (if he wants a deal), admit he (Biden) was part of the problem.

        S-500 is here, S-600 will include LEO in its sphere, and the national interest guy’s airly saying – decades for the S-600 with no evidence, ignores that Russia has been bringing new systems online in dramatically less time than the US can do (but cant admit).

        Anyway, S-600 will alter the strategic balance by largely neutralizing US ICBMs (Some say the S-500 already has done that). Once it even gets close, the balance will shift, maybe 5-8 years.

  8. Deap says:

    Yikes, Dr Jill had to quickly runs interference for lost looking Geriatric Joe and shuffles him away after a reporter starts asking questions on camera, to the great laughter of the on-lookers:

  9. Alves says:

    Regarding COVID-19, it will not go away until people are vaccinated, and most russians are not using it:

    As a side note, Brazil will use almost 1 million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine and its safety and efficacy will be closely monitored for possible widespread use later. Maybe now we will se better data about it.

  10. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Colonel, I think you might find interesting some remarks by Putin on (Catholic) religion and traditional values (a two-minute video):

    Quite a contrast to the normative views of America’s MSM.

  11. J says:

    Putin schedules State Duma elections for September 19, 2021 — Kremlin
    The order enters into effect from the moment of its publication

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