The recent statement from the NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson:
Iran has begun an airborne attack against Israel. President Biden is being regularly updated on the situation by his national security team and will meet with them this afternoon at the White House. His team is in constant communication with Israeli officials as well as other partners and allies. This attack is likely to unfold over a number of hours. President Biden has been clear: our support for Israel’s security is ironclad. The United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran.
Comment: So far I’ve heard anywhere from a few dozen to over 100 drones on the way. Cruise missiles may also have been launched. The IDF is, of course, on full alert. It definitely wasn’t a surprise. Is it a quest for real damage or a face saving measure? I’m not sure.
TTG
It’s part of the script, does any of this war-banging feel real -? I can list my question marks, but… This is going down as planned. Yes, I am a conspiracy theorist. Hahahahahaha!
Rick is correct. The drone attack of 170 Shaheds from Iran plus multiple Houthis UAVs and dozens of Hezbollah Grad rockets were meant to saturate Israel’s air defense capability. The IRGC was thinking that would allow their cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to get through to the intended targets. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency (associated with the IRGC) admitted as much. “According to Tasnim, the tactic used consisted of saturating the Iron Dome and David’s sling with a first wave of hundreds of HESA Shahed 136 kamikaze drones, followed by launching tens of ballistic missiles as the second wave of attack, which according to Iran managed to pass the Israeli air defense system.”
AFAIK all of the ballistic missiles were aimed at IDF military targets and not at civilian targets. Unlike the Kremlin, which routinely attacks civilian residential areas. Is that restraint on their part? Or was it specifically for this operation only?
Leith,
How good do you think the aim really is?
If I were in charge of Israel, next time the Iranians (and/or proxies) pulled this kind of crap, I’d blow up the Al Aqsa mosque and report that an errant Iranian missile did it. Stick some missile bits in the ruins. The let the Sunni and Shia kill each other over it.
Eric –
I have no clue how accurate those Iranian missiles are.
The Israelis said they had minor damage on a taxiway and some structures at Nevatim Air Base in the Negev. An article by Joseph Trevithick at the The Warzone TWZ blog speculates that the Iranians hit Nevatim with Emad MRBMs. Wikipedia is unclear on accuracy, first stating 10 meters then later listing a 50 meter CEP. Iran Watch website has a table of Iran’s missile arsenal that says Emad accuracy is less than 500 meters. So take your pick.
Don’t give Netanyahu any ideas on blowing up more mosques. No sense inviting retaliation on St Peters Basilica in Rome, or that huge old synagogue on Wilshire in LA.
Leith,
Good point. I’ll just hope one missile goes off course on its own and hits the mosque. It would be the most hilarious screw up in military history – at least in the top 5.
There is no reason for Iran to design a missile with an accuracy of less than its blast radius. The ballistic missile traveled 1,000 miles and hit a runway at a military airport. It would be a heck of a coincidence if the few Iranian missiles that got through just happened to hit an airforce base runway.
Iranian ballistic missiles are very accurate. We saw that at Al Asad airbase as well.
CJC,
You’re not thinking about this correctly. A few missiles may have hit their target and caused minor damage. However, the bulk of the missiles that were not shot down, failed. TTG provided US & British assessment down thread. Maybe you missed his post. The last paragraph is the most salient. The assessment is where I got the idea that Iran could accidently blow up something that might tick off other Muslims:
“F-15E Strike Eagles from the 494th Fighter Squadron and the 335th Fighter Squadron shot down more than 70 Iranian drones, senior U.S. officials told reporters on April 14. A Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq, took down a ballistic missile, and the USS Arleigh Burke and USS Carney in the Eastern Mediterranean took down four to six ballistic missiles, the officials added. U.S. Navy aircraft also supported the mission.
Earlier news reports suggested 100 drones intercepted by US and UK aircraft so potentially 30~ drones intercepted by the UK. Still waiting on official statements from the UK.
Of the between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles fired by Iran, approximately 62 veered off course or failed during lift off. US officials assess a failure rate of 50%.
The deception against IRON DOME worked.
The ballistic missiles failed.
The Hypersonic were very successful, but Iran does not have enough.
The Iranians have a good idea where the HPTs are and Israel does not have the space to hide things.
Israeli hardware works well.
On the other hand, Iran has a lot of room to hide things and lots of places to harden them.
Nether side is in a great position,
With all of the military instinct and expertise gained in 25 years with DMV, I gotta say that a wave of drones feels like a first wave, or chaff, or just not the whole effort. We’ll see what happens.
“Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe,” the Iranian mission to the United Nations said, warning the U.S. to “stay away”. However, it also said Iran now “deemed the matter concluded”.
It was a drive by, one and done. The Iranians crapped their pants as they did this political stunt for domestic consumption. Now they’re praying that there won’t be payback.
And a first wave attack would use slow vehicles announced by world press while they’re still en route. Not a barrage of missiles..? Your experience seems ‘limited.’ I guess all that time at Department of Motor Vehicles has served you well.
Ah how charming. Self-deprecating humor sounds different when echoed by someone else I guess.
Anyway, it is not unheard of to do so. Why would you not send a bunch of cheap and easily replaced drones as, say, a probe to see what happens before you start launching your expensive and less easily replaced missiles? Again, it has been done.
What is your experience that tells you this in not likely, if I may ask?
Agree.
Trace every AA battery and deplete ENY missiles stock
That makes sense, but nothing else about this does, to me. It all seems like war theater.
With DMW you indeed referred to: Department of Motor Vehicles? Here:
expertise gained in 25 years with DMV
If so, why would experience in that field matter on our subject here? I am mystified.
LeaNder,
It was a sarcastic remark. Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of … whatever. To us Americans, it’s self-deprecating and funny to say you have gained expertise working for Department of Motor Vehicle, because it implies incompetence.
The UAVs were a feint. They were hoping to keep Iron Dome busy so that some of the three dozen cruise missiles and 100+ ballistic missiles would get through.
And while we all await each sides’ chess moves, what about instant and total retaliation against the launch sites and other known hangouts, (leadership, communications, air defense…) why just waiting… Is this war or death theater -? Wars need to be won, not engaged in.
It will happen eventually at a time and place chosen by the IAF and Mossad. Only fools rush in ….
Fair enough
Iran is already saying that they’re done with their glorious strike on the “little satan” and, basically, “so please don’t retaliate against us”. Lame cowards. Ball is in Israel’s court now. IMO, Israel should (and will) smack Iran five times as hard to punish them, especially now that Iran’s fear and limitations are on very public display. If Iran is allowed to get away with this, they’ll do it again, but push the limits a little more each time.
Chihuahua barking.
Iran has more than 50 000 missiles.
Aleksandar,
Very few of those missiles have the range to hit Israel.
It is clear now that Jordan doesn’t want that Iranian crap flying over its airspace and Egypt isn’t too happy with Iran either. Saudi is already against Iran. Iran would not just be facing off against Israel if it decides to continue to get all froggy, which it won’t, because it is run by cowards that can only back up their rhetoric to the extent of terrorist attacks against women and children and maybe isolated outposts of IDF.
Iran is the Chihuahua.
Iran’s been building a missile inventory to hit Israel for at least 20yrs, do you really want to find out how many they have? Nasrallah said he would join in an attack on Israel if Iran was attacked again and then chose to retaliate. He is a man of his word.
The attack was provoked. Bombing an Iranian embassy was a direct attack on Iran from Israel. That was the one red line Iran had. Iran has tolerated assassinations in their country, they have tolerated Israel killing their personnel outside of Iran. Iran had to restore deterrence.
CJC,
It wasn’t an “embassy”. I was sort of a consulate that has been used in the past to plan attacks on Israel. The Iranians themselves admit that one of their military guys killed in the attack was the “architect” of Oct 7th (quotes b/c it is Iran’s words). I even put a link from the Iranian news publication in the post about the strike on this forum.
Israel killed a vicious murderer of women and children who was hiding in a pseudo consulate planning further attacks on Israeli citizens. Iran is so egocentric that they can’t understand why Israel could do that. Of course Iran also knows it can propagandize people like you who are too quick to jump to conclusions based on what some has been talking head has to say.
Eric Newhill,
It was the consulate section of the Iranian embassy.
TTG,
Things are what they are according to the observer’s perspective and desire. A technical person with certain vested interests might say “It was the consulate section of the Iranian embassy. Off limits!.” Another person, with different priorities and information, might say, ” It was a covert vipers’ nest where vile murderers met and atrocities were planned and, thus, a legitimate target”.
Lawyers, media spinners, philosophers and politicians abound these days. Real warriors, much less so. Candy ass ROEs and Lawyers, media spinners, philosophers and politicians are why America can’t win a war these days. Israel doesn’t have the luxury of such indulgences. The enemy doesn’t respect those ROEs. US embassies are fair game to them and so are Israeli embassies.
Eric: “It wasn’t an “embassy” ”
Yes, it was. The missiles struck a building that was located on Embassy grounds.
I’m sorry if English isn’t your first language, but this is true: when a missile is aimed at *anything* that is on Embassy grounds the the Embassy was attacked.
The Vienna Convention is clear on that matter: you can’t attack an embassy, you can’t kill Embassy staff.
“Things are what they are according to the observer’s perspective and desire.”
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not to their own facts.
This is a fact: The Vienna Conventions codify the inviolability of both Embassy grounds and persons holding diplomatic credentials.
This is also a fact: No nation has deliberately violated that convention by dropping bombs on a embassy, not since “dropping bombs” became a thing. Wasn’t even done by the Germans or the Japanese in WW2.
This is also a fact: Israel violated that Convention by deliberately bombing an Iranian embassy and deliberately killing Iranians with diplomatic accreditation.
Eric: “It was a covert vipers’ nest where vile murderers met and atrocities were planned and, thus, a legitimate target”
So sorry, but the Vienna Conventions are not concerned with the moral shortcomings of a country or its official representatives overseas. The inviolability of embassies is UNCONDITIONAL.
There are no little asterisks next to the article that leads to “unless you don’t like them, in which case bombs away!!!!”
Unconditional is unconditional, and Israel violated an unconditional norm of international law and its violation of that norm of international law is unprecedented.
YR,
How many embassies have Islamic types targeted and blown up?
No one cares about those international rules that you’ve to quote. They are not enforced.
Eric Newhill,
A wide variety of embassies have been attacked by a wide range of attackers. The attackers were not exclusively and maybe not predominantly Islamic types although they’re in the running for that title. I don’t know of any Islamic state that sanctioned an attack on an embassy.
“How many embassies have Islamic types targeted and blown up?”
“A wide variety of embassies have been attacked by a wide range of attackers.”
The embassy attack that really sticks out is that on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999. Five JDAMs hit the Embassy, and I have to agree with the Chinese, who labeled it a “barbarian act.” Bill Clinton apologized, but the Chinese knew that it was a deliberate attack. You see, the remains of the U.S. F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter sent over the Kosovo conflict that was shot down by a Russian-made surface-to-air missile fired by the Serbia-led Yugoslavian military was in that embassy. China asked the Yugoslavian government to share the remains of the recovered wreckage, and after consultations, succeeded in obtaining the guidance system, the stealthy main body and heat-resistant engine-nozzle parts. The US wanted to prevent the Chinese from reverse engineering this technology, so they engineered a little accident.
TTG,
I am not a lawyer and am wise enough not to try to pretend I am, or know the law sufficiently to be one de facto. That said, this article makes an interesting case for why the attack on the Syrian embassy – whoever perpetrated it – was NOT in violation of international law.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/europe/interpreter-israel-syria-embassy.html
Eric: “How many embassies have Islamic types”…
Ladies and gentlemen, our weasel-words for today are “Islamic types”.
What is an “Islamic type”, Eric, and where would I find it mentioned in the Vienna Conventions?
Because that convention is International Law, and as should be obvious International Law is the law that is agreed upon between NATIONS, not “types”.
Israel is a nation, it is not a “Jewish type”.
Iran is a nation, it is not an “Islamic type”.
Has any nation inthe history of, well, history, ever deliberately bombed a foreign embassy from the air.
Only the once, and we both know who did it.
Twice, if you disbelieve Slick Willie’s heartfelt “Oops”.
You really do use words like a loose bowel movement.
Same result, by the way…
YR,
Is it within international law for a nation, like Iran, to launch drones and missiles at another sovereign nation, like Israel?
Is it within international for Iran to condemn and attack Israel without an investigation and formal conclusion that it actually did what Iran accuses it of doing?
Can we get a second opinion – something other than yours, that is – that, if Israel was the source of the attack on the Iranian consulate and the Iranian consulate was hiding wanted terrorists, that it is illegal for Israel to attack it? Because I have read legal interpretations of relevant law, by people better educated in international law that you, that say that under those circumstances it is NOT illegal.
Eric: “YR,
Is it within international law for a nation, like Iran, to launch drones and missiles at another sovereign nation, like Israel?”
Why, yes. Yes, it is.
I can even point to it: Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations.
Israel launched an unprovoked attack on an Iranian Embassy, in violation of an established norm of international law (the Vienna Convention).
Iran did the right thing by taking that outrageous act of aggression to the UN Security Council and demand that the SC condemn that attack.
The USA prevented the UNSC from doing its job, AT WHICH POINT Iran then officially invoked its right under Article 51 of the Charter.
Do us all a favor by looking that up and sharing it with us, Eric.
Make sure to nclude the first few words that start that sentence.
They Are Most Illuminating.
Honestly, is this all news to you?
What is ironic in this this discussion is that the first act of the Iranian Islamic government regarding US diplomatic relations was to violate the US embassy and seize the US staff as hostages.
The lack of self-awareness is at full blown narcissistic levels among the anti-western crowd – it is stunning.
“Of all manifestations of power, restraint impresses men the most.”
-Thucydides
This was intended to provoke Israeli’s innate predisposition to over exaggerate Old Testament revenge. Sprayed and prayed and failed to cause any damage. Israel gets the W even after violating the Vienna Convention with a surgical strike on an embassy.
The greatest revenge right now is do nothing at all.
“Sprayed and prayed and failed to cause any damage”
The Iranians claimed that they targeted two IDF air bases.
Israel is in the ludicrous position of pretending they shot down everything…. except a handful of missiles…. which just so happened to be the very same missiles that were aimed at those two air bases.
What were the odds, heh?
Yeah, Right
They did kind of land nearby so if it had an Obama device as a warhead the attack would have “succeeded”. Meanwhile the Houthis chase the French fleet out of the Red Sea as they ran out of AAA missiles and are now defenseless against low end drones. No resupply at sea capabilities either. Not much operational vision in NATOs naval leaders as we face the same limitations.
Fred: “They did kind of land nearby”
We now have the first satellite photos of one of the airfields, and of the three impact craters I can see each one of them neatly bisected a runway, and each and every one of them hit a separate runway.
Beginners luck, hey?
I Agree With Rick…We Know the Drone Waves Can Go on For Hours,,,and
The Iron Dome Has to Down Them all….How Long Can That Last,,??
News Media saying this is A Little Show For Iran…I Doubt That;;; After
Israels Attack In Jordan…And Dead Iranian Generals and Staff… No
Its Going to Be a Blood Honor War Now Im Sure.. After Russia Stepping up
To Take Out Ukraines Power Plants.,,,
I Suspect Iran with Put Thier Guided 4000 Pound Bombs on Targets Like
Israel Airfields…And Israel Power Grids too,,,,
I Suspect Direct attack by Israel on Iran…Turning Point..Big One..IMO
Nope. It’s over. Stupid lame attack. Jordan helped shoot down the slow moving drones. The Brits and US helped. Iron dome helped. I’m curious what Iraq thought as the drones had to traverse their air space and haven’t heard a statement from them.
COBO….
I Think You Were Wrong to “Assume” That RICK was a Department of Motor Vehicle..DMV..Worker..
Perhaps He is a DISABLED MILITARY VETERAN….
speaking From Experience..
Our Son in Law..Also a RICK..Was a SUV Driver..
He Was Killed..on Active Duty…
Navy UDT.. FYI
Jim, I’m sorry to hear about your son. I was just f’n with Rick. I don’t see how tit-4-tat war, when real war awaits, is realistic for the victorious. Rick made a shrewd call, but shrewd under the current paradigm for war, which I think is false.
As I have written elsewhere I think this is all about draining western air defense missile stores (and encouraging Israel to stockpile such missiles thus further depleting such stores) so they cannot be used in Ukraine. Patriot batteries are limited and I would think the missiles to arm them are even more limited. Israel’s needs are going to trump Ukraine’s needs, so better get those F-16s to Ukraine pronto.
F16 are outdated.
aleksandar,
The F-16 is not the latest in warplane technology, but it is far from outdated. Much like the Patriot, which was a disappointment in the first Gulf War, has been upgraded and improved into what it is today. The F-16 is the same.
pretty obvious – Warefare Light as theater for crowd (Revolutionary Guard) management. theocracy is weird, ain’t it?
Iran acted retaliatory, but seems he warned everybody beforehand.
As if they wanted to show they’ll reciprocate, but with this hit they don’t want to start a war.
Jovan,
Yeah – Iran doesn’t want to start a war they know they’ll lose, very badly lose.
Why anyone fears those guys is a mystery to me. They could be squashed like ants in a few weeks at most, just like the Iraqi army was, twice – and they stay squashed if the prevailing powers have learned to not try to nation build with hopeless losers. Backwards ass Islamic revolutionary idiots.
The only mystery here is you.
Posting about Iran military capacity without any knowledge of it
Eric Newhill is the local Zio-troll. Every logical, analytical comment made will be matched with drivel from his keyboard, a heartly drivel made up of aggressive statements about US and Israeli power, the weakness of the Iranians, a call to take out Iran (squash like ants in a few weeks, just like the Iraqi army was…), the “lame coward” nature of the Iranian attack, etc. People have to use their own independent analysis to figure things out. A few points for Eric: Iran made an attack in response to the cowardly and highly illegal (in international law) attack on the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, which destroyed the consulate building. Iran waited patiently for the UNSC to condemn the attack, but the pawns of Jewish oligarchs, that is, the western powers of the US, the UK, and France, refused to condemn the clearly criminal Israeli actions. At this point, Iran had to invoke article 51 of the UN Charter and launch a legal and justified act of self-defense against the Israelis. I would just like to remind you all that international law underpinned by the UN is still the gold standard here; the “rules-based international order” is the bizarro clown show that the US and the West blasts out with its propaganda. It has never been voted for by the nations of the UN, and it has never been codified by its backers. It’s basically a “we make up the rules as we go along, and we apply them differently in different cases”. Now, the second point is the nature of the Iranian attack. This unhinged statement from Eric must be addressed: “it is run by cowards that can only back up their rhetoric to the extent of terrorist attacks against women and children and maybe isolated outposts of IDF.” The rich irony of this statement should be clear to everyone. For it is only ONE power and government in the region that is run by cowards who attack women and children with impunity, and that is Israel. This tactic that Eric employs is called “accusatory inversion” or “projection”, and it involves accusing the enemy of carrying out the atrocities perpetrated by your own nation/group. Let’s have a running count on the number of dead women and children in ALL conflicts in the world in the past decade, Eric, and we will find that Israel is running an ethnic cleansing show on the Palestinians in Gaza that exceeds ALL others. The Iranian targets were not only ALL military targets, they were also military targets involved in the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. First, Iran attacked Nevatim Airbase (Intelligence Base) and Ramon Airbase, the likely places where the attacks on the Embassy in Damascus were planned and the jets flew out of. Next, they attacked military sites in the Golan Heights. This is a measured retaliatory response targeting military bases involved in the attack against their embassy. Finally, we should address Eric’s uninformed and dangerous statements about the future. I will ignore his completely irrational attacks against Islam and Mulsims, because that’s not the point here. It DOES provide context to his mindset, something that should be noted. “They could be squashed like ants in a few weeks at most”. Really? Without using nuclear weapons, any attacks on Iran would immediately cause a regional conflagration that would cripple the world economy, destroy all American bases in the region, killing many servicepeople, and perhaps even bring about WWIII. Iran is deep in its power, and it’s well-protected geographically. Iran could cut off all the oil and gas flow from the Persian Gulf. Not only that, it has been running joint military training for years with Russia and China, and any Israeli / US attack on Iran could bring these two powers into the conflict quickly.
Even Joe Biden has a cooler head that you, Eric. And he isn’t well-known for being a cool head. He’s better knows for being a ventriloquist dummy spouting the talking points of his overly Jewish administration and state department. And we all know that these people are the ones pushing the world towards WWIII, in Ukraine/Russia, the Middle East, and China/Taiwan. They would rather double down than admit that the world WILL BE multipolar and the moment of unipolarity is truly over.
frankie p – you are highly uniformed.
For just one thing, Israel killed the architect of Oct 7th in that “consulate” attack. Iran even says so. Sorry you don’t like that.
https://www.mizanonline.ir/fa/news/4766444/%D8%AA%D8%AC%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%84-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B4-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%E2%80%8C%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B5%DB%8C
Eric Newhill,
Please stop your deflections. Hamas planned and executed October 7. I see that attack as also being mostly military in nature, though there were some atrocities carried out by Hamas, which I condemn. I also highly condemn the Hannibal Directive killings of Israelis by the IDF, and I think they make up a much higher percentage of the civilian toll than most people think. Sorry you don’t like that.
However, that is not the point. The point is that the consulate section was part of the Iranian Embassy, as TTG pointed out above. That makes the attack a flagrant violation of established norms of diplomatic immunity, a principle that has been a cornerstone of international law for centuries. Sorry that you don’t like that.
You are a spin-meister, spouting the Israeli propaganda on a level with most US media. Soon you’ll be calling the illegal attack on the Iranian Embassy “suspected to have been carried out by Israel, who have yet to admit that they carried out the attack.”
By the way, I wear no uniform!
frankie p,
Did you read the link? It is a legit Iranian publication. They are saying the architect of Oct 7th was one of those killed in the consulate. You don’t accept that? You know better? How? Please enlighten us with your inside sources’ information.
Just because you don’t like something, doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
Sorry Frankie,going to have to wave the red hankie for this crap
“but the pawns of Jewish oligarchs, that is, the western powers of the US, the UK, and France”
Rather give it a go over on unzreview or moa.
mcohen,
Here is Canada we have a “foreign interference” inquiry going on about Chinese influence in our democracy.
It raises an interesting question to my mind – should ethnic Chinese in Canada be allowed to have their own AIPAC?
What do you think?
Eric, the link that you place so much credence on is itself lifting its news from a statement by the “The Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council”
Which does not speak for the Iranian government and is in no way, shape or form either official nor authoritative.
Indeed, they would know no more about that topic than you do.
YR,
Well Mr pedantic. Since you love “facts and splitting hairs and all so much, Israel didn’t claim responsibility for bombing the embassy either. So what are you blaming them for? Don’t we need one of you beloved international judiciary bodies to do an investigation. Iran just jumped to conclusions without a trial, proof or evidence; then started firing missiles and launching drones. I mean, I think Israel would know more than you do about the matter.
And, YR, you’ve really outdone yourself, with your cheap lawyering on behalf of the government of Iranian, in stating that Iranian Revolutionary Forces aren’t talking to the Iranian government. It’s like saying the US government has no idea what the CIA is doing and is no way responsible for the CIA’s actions.
But let’s play along with your argument for a moment. Don’t you think a rational Iranian government would go over to the revolutionary guys and ask them about their evil terrorist attack planners maybe hiding out in the embassy before going all psycho on Israel?
Eric: “in stating that Iranian Revolutionary Forces aren’t talking to the Iranian government”
Eric, baby, the “The Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council” isn’t a military. It isn’t a “force”.
It is a political party inthe Iranian parliament.
Indeed, it is a coalition of political parties in the Iranian parliament.
Nothing more, and no less, and that YOU mistake a political party for the IRG says all there needs to be said about your complete cluelessness on the topic that you profess expertise.
Eric: “It’s like saying the US government has no idea what the CIA is doing and is no way responsible for the CIA’s actions”
No, actually. It would be more like saying the Greens are privy to the decision making of the CIA, and that what Jill Stein has to say on the topic is going to be infallible.
Eric: “But let’s play along with your argument for a moment.”
Since you COMPLETELY misunderstand my argument because you are COMPLETELY clueless about the true nature of your source of information then what followed was COMPLETE nonsense.
One more time for the slow people: the “Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council” is not what you think it is.
It IS NOT the Iran Revolutionary Guards.
It IS NOT a military force.
It IS NOT a part of the ruling government.
It IS NOT an arm of that government.
It is what it is, and what it is happens to be a motley coalition of ultra-right wing political parties who sit on the opposition benches in the Iranian parliament.
They have exactly zero insight into the inner thinking of the Iranian government, or of the Iranian military, or any of the other arms of the Iranian state.
They would know exactly as much as you do, which is z.e.r.o.
Yeah, Right,
Thank you for pointing out the craziness of the Eric Newhill article from some little known party with no real connection to the Iranian government or IRGC.
mcohen,
Wave your red hankie all you want. I suspect you have no control over where I post my comments. If my comments are over the top, I’m sure TTG will either delete them or ban me. So far I’m still here.
Anyone who denies that the western countries that I named are run by sell-out politicians firmly in the pockets of Jewish oligarchs and financial usurious vampires hasn’t been paying much attention. Since the UTTERLY CONTEMPTIBLE blind support from the US, UK, France, and Germany of Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza, more and more of the goys are waking up and taking about it.
Numbered Days; an own-goal story
YR,
You better take your meds before you have a full blown episode and hurt yourself.
Let’s try to keep this simple so you can follow along.
The guys killed, by an unknown party or parties, in the Iranian consulate (that doubled as a planning center or terrorist ops) were Revolutionary Guards military brass. The Iranian publication I linked to is fairly mainstream press in Iran and it unequivocally states that one of the now dead Iranian military brass in the consulate architected Oct 7th.
It is hard to believe that a fairly mainstream publication is going to say that if not true in a place where they hand women for not wearing Bhurkas and political opponents of the ruling party are torture before execution.
You are someone who is a self-styled revolutionary against the west and who chooses to believe and propagate that Israel is just populated by psychopaths and that they killed for the Iranian guys for sport, or something.
YR,
So the Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council just made up that story about the architect of Oct 7th being killed in the consulate attack – and the Iranian government, a government that has no problem executing trouble makers, allows it to be published and disseminated all over the place. Sure. And there is no retraction of the story. No refuting of it by the “Iranian government”. You really believe that? Maybe because you want to.
Also, with that story out there, the oh so “innocent” and clueless government of Iran, whatever that might be exactly, didn’t have the responsibility to go ask the Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council about the story to see if there is any truth to it, a truth that might modify Iran’s reaction towards Israel?
The only one you’re fooling with all of your ranting and raving is yourself.
YR, and finally, just to clear up more of your misdirections. The Mizan press fall under Iran’s judiciary. It isn’t just some random city weekly.
What I meant by the Iranian govt talking to the revolutionary forces wasn’t that the revolutionary forces and the council are the same. Rather, that if the forces were involved in Oct 7th – as said to be by Mizan press – that the Iranian govt could certainly ask the forces whether or not that was true.
Why I mentioned the US govt not knowing what the CIA is doing as an analogy is because the Iranian govt should know if the revolutionary forces were involved in Oct 7th. If they weren’t, then the govt should have Mizan pull the article and then arrest Mizan writers for defaming the glorious Iranian govt and revolutionary forces, but that doesn’t seem to have happened, does it? Mind you Iran stills executes people for blasphemy and political crimes. So it’s not as if there’d be any reticence to set Mizan straight.
I won’t ask you to draw conclusions from what did and didn’t happen because you appear pathologically unable to accept that there are bad guys in the world other than the US and Israel and will devolve into all manner of hyperactive mental contortions to maintain your world view.
Eric: ….”because you appear pathologically unable to accept that there are bad guys in the world other than the US and Israel”…
I have no problem recognising that there are “bad guys” all over the world.
Where I have a problem is with your apparent belief that the USA and Israel are unique in the world in being “good guys”.
I am far from being alone in believing that in a world of “bad guys” the USA and Israel stand head and shoulders above the pack.
If you don’t believe me then ask the diplomatic staff of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, or the diplomatic staff of the Iran embassy in Damascus… oh, yeah, that’s right: we can’t coz’ they’re dead.
Eric: “So the Islamic Revolutionary Forces Coalition Council just made up that story about the architect of Oct 7th being killed in the consulate attack”
Well, f**k me, let’s turn that challenge on its head, shall we, and see how much hyperbole I can come up with.
As in: Do you really think that Marco Rubio and Lady Lindsay Graham don’t spin up the most outrageous lies without being corrected by a compliant and thoroughly compromised press?
As in: do you really think that Israeli first responders on Oct 7 didn’t just make up outrageous lies about beheaded babies, and those lies are still being repeated by government officials in Israel?
You ask me if I think that an ultra right-wing party in Iran might just make its shit up?
Yeah, I do, and for the simplest of reasons: why should IRANIAN ultra right-wing parties be any different to the ultra right-wing in the USA, or the ultra right-wing in Israel.
You ask why the Iranian government doesn’t use its control of the compliant media inside Iran to correct those untruths.
Well, back atcha: the msm in the west is thoroughly compromised, and THEY don’t ever step in and stomp on the likes of Little Rubio or Lady Lindsay.
The fools who invaded Iraq, based on lies, in which 1,000,000 people were killed said the same thing.
You are in GREAT company advocating the same sort of thing in Iran. I supposed you would be advocating your children and grandchildren sign up to hit the ground in Iran in the “slam dunk” just like the idiots told us Iraq would be?
A million dead? Does that include the civil war unleashed in Iraq or just the ones killed by the NATO(!) militaries involved. “USA! USA! USA!” if you prefer.
Fred, states are supposed to have a monopoly on violence: it is part and parcel of the social contract between a government and the governed.
So when an outside force (let’s call it, oh, I dunno, “the USA”) comes in and crushes the existing government and the COMPLETELY dismantles the institutions of the state then it is inevitable that chaos and lawlessness will be the result.
Fred: “Does that include the civil war unleashed in Iraq”..
Why, yes. Yes, it does. The first thing that Washington did was to COMPLETELY dismantle the existing institutions of the Iraqi state )”de-baathifcation”) and then COMPLETELY fail to replace that power vacuum.
(Which, I’ll add in passing, maintaining law and order is a legal obligation of an occupier, since in law “authority” over an occupied territory rests with the occupying power)
I mean, honestly, why do you even ask that question? Of course the USA is responsible for that chaos and those deaths.
This direct attack with drones and missiles on Israel by Iran is going incite a retaliatory strike. Bibi won’t stand down like Donald Trump did. Most likely, if IDF can do it, they take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Between 2010 and 2012 four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated most likely by Mossad. The regional holy war will keep escalating like the NATO Russian proxy World War in Ukraine is doing right now. The real question is if the Biden Administration can keep out the USA out of the Israel Iran War. My gut feeling is that they will double down and strike Iran also to prevent the Axis of Resistance from formally establishing the new multi-polar world. The West is being relegated back to its quarter of the world and will no longer will have easy access to Middle East petroleum — the whole point of the Carter Doctrine and the last 40 years. The recent Joe Biden summit with USA, Japan and the Philippines is an indication of a new Iron Curtain going up around the edge of Eurasia. But Washington DC and the EU appear to be incapable of getting off the treadmill of continuing escalation by agreeing to UN Armistices and building strong effective DMZs between combatants to keep the peace in the Second Cold War.
At least on my trip to the VA hospital yesterday, I had the foresight to fill up my car’s gas tank.
V.vet.no nuclear yet. probably kharg island drone attack,power plant,then bushehr.hydroelectric dams further inland in khuzestan.
VV,
“Between 2010 and 2012 four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated …”
You mean someone has been engaged in unconventional war against Iran for years? Now, following an attack on an embassy in violation of treaties they signed but don’t abide by, the Iranians got approval to overfly Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Yemen/Jordan so as to have all this crap show up at the same time? I wonder if our Dear Leader, in the best tradition of Jimmy Carter, will figure out the other countries aren’t outraged over what Iran did.
The Israelis have launched thousands of attacks over the past decade in Lebanon, Syria and other locations. Sometimes within their airspace, sometimes actually in the airspace of Lebanon, Syria and other locations. All acts of war, without some such of a sqeek from Obama, Trump or Biden. It isnt like Trump somehow was holding Israel to international norms or from blantant acts of war. When it comes to Israel ALL US presidents genuflect to one extent or another.
In this case Israel attacked sovereign Iranian soil, state to state. No proxies here. A huge misstep by Israel and a violation of international law and norms. Biden is right to say that the US will not be involved in any attack against Iran because Iran was within its rights to respond to Israel.
Israel is just loosing friends and support across the board, even in states otherwise allies. Unlike in the past, these current actions will not quickly be forgotten and the videos will be shown on social media for decades to come. The younger generations, already not supportive of Israel, will be less so. The Israelis are sowing HUGE amounts of issues that will be reaped in the decades to come when the young of today, who do not support Israel, become the leaders of tomorrow. But much of what is happening today is about Netanyahu’s current political issues. He is thinking about himself, not what his actions of today will mean for Israel 20 or 30 years down the road.
Stefan,
I remember when the Iranians attacked sovereign US soil and took hostages that they held for 444 days.
Eric Newhill,
Hotheaded Iranian students attacked the embassy, not the Iranian government. But that government acquiesced to the students actions and damned didn’t do anything to stop them.
In addition to the occupation of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979 there are many other violations of US Embassies by Iranian proxies:
The worst was probably in Beirut in 1983, when Hezbollah used a van packed with a 2000 pound bomb to attack the US Embassy killing 32 Lebanese, 17 Americans, and 14 visitors and passers-by. A year later in 1984 Hezbollah again used a car bomb at the Beirut Embassy killing 24. And in 1998 the same embassy was attacked by Hezbollah with rocket propelled grenades.
In 2010 in Baghdad a rocket killed three US Embassy guards and injured 15 fifteen others, including two Embassy contractors. Four years ago, that embassy was again attacked by a mob of several hundred egged on by Kataib Hezbollah; they set fires to the reception area and three trailers within the grounds. Just four months ago that embassy was attacked with mortars by an Iraqi Hezbollah militia.
In 2012 the US Embassy in Yemen was stormed by a mob that included Houthis; they broke through the gates and burned several embassy vehicles.
In 1983 an al-Dawa truck bomb at the US Embassy in Kuwait killed six.
Yep, they sure did.
That’s the funny things about revolutions: when the old regime is overthrown there is a period of lawlessness until the new regime can re-establish the monopoly of the state on the use of violence.
Funny, that.
In the incidence that you refer to TTG has it almost right: “Hotheaded Iranian students attacked the embassy, not the Iranian government. ”
That is, indeed, true. And an important point which I suspect you will handwave away.
But is a shrewd observation. This was a moment of extreme upheaval inside Iran, and the new revolutionary government had not yet re-established the monopoly of violence that is the hallmark of a state.
Which is why I don’t completely agree with TTG’s statement that “But that government acquiesced to the students actions and damned didn’t do anything to stop them.”
Correct, as far as it goes. But not complete.
At that THAT POINT IN TIME “the government” was a provisional government that was emerging from the chaos of a very, very messy revolution.
Look, don’t get me wrong: I unconditionally condemn the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.
It was wrong.
It was unconditionally wrong.
But the blame lies with those radical student groups, not with the Islamic Revolutionary government.
THEIR blame lies with their inability to centralize power unto themselves, which simply hadn’t been completed by 1979 and wouldn’t be complete for several more years later.
Indeed, it was that lack of centralized authority that tempted Iraq to attempt the violent overthrow of the Iranian government, and it was THAT war of aggression against Iran that finally allowed the Mullahs to take complete control.
Again, I have to ask: Is your understanding of such things so shallow that this is all news to you?
YR –
Those hotheads were not run of the mill students. They were members of a militarized student group known as the “Muslim Students of the Imam Khomeini Line”. They attacked just an hour or so after Ayatollah Khomeini claimed that foreign enemies were plotting against the revolution and that the American embassy was “a nest of spies” and “a center of intrigue.” There were also some Marxists, the People’s Mojahedin, at the embassy. And after the takeover the gates outside the embassy were guarded by armed Pasdaran, which later became known as the IRGC.
https://web.archive.org/web/20070930190803/http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,948771,00.html
‘Ayatollah Khomeini claimed that foreign enemies were plotting against the revolution and that the American embassy was “a nest of spies” and “a center of intrigue.”’
Yes. Exactly what I said – and Israel said – about the Iranian consulate in Syria. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Though, of course, Yeah Right will continue to argue that Iran is to disorganized to be responsible for the actions arising from it. One aspect of the government can’t talk to another, i.e. the revolutionary guards, to determine if the the generals in the consulate were involved in Oct 7th, If a news story from the judiciary branch is about that is true, can’t control its religious students, the Ayatollah can’t control his mouth, etc.
It’s all BS
leith, how did your post contradict ANYTHING that I wrote in mine?
TTG,
Understood.
Yet the incident highlights the convenience of nuances between government and associated non-governmental entities (see plausible – or semi-plausible – deniability).
Not a sign, from day one, on the Iranian government’s part – nor the Iranian people’s – that they sought to be partners in good faith on the world actor stage.
If I were running things in Iran, I would have staged an attack after the first of those hits, on some Israeli civilian scientists in a completely unrelated field, while they were attending a scientific conference in Europe and having dinner in a cafe. It would have been some guys on bikes with paintballs… No one gets hurt, but the message would be clear. And that would destroy Israeli academic research, which is critical to their economy.
I don’t know how long you have been reading this blog. If memory saves me right it was the Colonel’s opinion a comprehensive attack on Iran cannot be done successfully without US help. This was talked about a lot on this blog. May have even beem war gamed here. I don’t remember. Israel does not have the ability to take out Iran’s nuclear program on its own. It would require US help and that will not he happening at the moment.
One target – Nevatim Airbase, south of the West Bank, got hit with secondary explosions and a loose missile visible. A couple of planes, maybe?
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nevatim,+Israel/@31.2234322,34.8816744,1637m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x15025d6a9adeef87:0x835824b0d7e534a1!8m2!3d31.219761!4d34.882488!16zL20vMGRfNWJz?hl=da&entry=ttu
https://twitter.com/Haman_Ten/status/1779303719483351496
https://t.me/militarySummaryHub/3952
If the Iranians leave it at that, it will be a sign of cleverness.
I hope so.
The whole thing resembles a Corsican brawl (Corsican or Marseillaise): “Hold me back, or I’ll make mincemeat out of his bones”. As the spectators expect blood, nobody holds him back. And he goes home, disappointed by his supporters.
Showtime, this is Mediterranean, from one end to the other.
I hope so.
d74, if the Iranians leave it at that (which they will), it will be a sign of impotence.
What do you see about it that is clever?
Eric,
I didn’t think the Iranians are serious, just symbolic. In that respect, they’re smart.
Not serious, because enough effort to show their determination, but not enough to really hurt the Izzies.
Whether or not the Izzies up the ante is irrelevant. They’re stuck.
Especially since Biden said “you’re on your own” in case of escalation. It’s also a wise decision.
The symbol of a widely violated Izzie sky is fraught with significance. The time for Izzie solo rides to the South and East seems over. They can no longer get out of their comfort zone, except perhaps to the north, at the cost of what is sure to be a hefty bill.
Another remark: the Coral Sea operations showed two fleets clashing without visual or radar contact.
Here, we’ve just seen a ‘confrontation’ between two distant countries with no common border.
I thank the contributors below for their information , Yeah, Right and fredw. I share many of their opinions. The technical details are largely speculative and as such a nuisance. The issue in this Middle East complex is political. And I don’t know it
What was really targeted was israeli belief that they are safe from retaliation.
Mission accomplished.
If somebody want to leave israel by plane, he will have to wait.
No more seat available.
Aleksandar,
Apparently, Israelis are safe from retaliation. All the Iranians hit was a little Arab girl, who, sadly, was killed. That is a lot of ordnance to kill one little girl; not impressive. No wonder Iran has to resort to proxy butchers like Hamas and Hezbollah for its dirty work.
Israelis are not abandoning Israel; such a fantasy!
Aleksandar,
Many will want to leave Israel by plane, especially European Jews (Ashkenazi) who have some money and a second passport. Your point on the psychological aspect of this attack is right on. Even if there is no further escalation, the Iranians have sent a strong message. We can hit you where you are, when we want. Many Jews will conclude that Israel is no longer safe enough for Jews.
However my favourite is Dez dam.Water skiing.
The drones were intended to distract the Israeli air defenses while the ballistic missiles went for the same air base from which the IDF launched its air strike on the Iranian embassy.
Very symbolic, and in terms of retaliation very, very much justified.
So the success or failure of this will be determined by how much damage occurred at that air base.
Early days yet, but we’ll see.
I agree that the Nevatim Air Base (where the Israeli attack on Iran’s Embassy was launched?) was the smartest possible Iranian target inside Israel.
It sends the message that this is a measured, limited response to Israel’s attack. Israel is unlikely to listen to that message, but the rest of the world is likely to – including even the USA!
IMO, the “success or failure of this” (the Iranian attack) has little to do with the actual damage to the airfield(s); rather it depends on the reaction of other countries.
And so far, it looks like a strategic success. Biden has clearly told Bibi that he/we will continue to help defend Israel but will *not* join in any new Israeli attacks on Iran. IMO, this is very good news – and something of a watershed moment – though there are still plenty of ways this can turn into a much bigger war.
Of course, now it’s Israel’s “turn”. Can Netanyahu deliver a “measured, limited response” to this? My picture of his personal psychology – and the collective sentiment of the [(dominant) Jewish segment of the] Israeli electorate – makes that very unlikely.
And this, of course, will put Biden in a nasty bind: if the USA “allows” Israel to bomb Iran (with weapons Made in USA?), but then protects Israel from reprisal, we become [at least partly] responsible for the attack. That would be [more] blood that I don’t want on my/our hands…
Air bases are quickly repaired. Even if it sustained material damage, it will be back in use a couple of weeks. The little Arab girl killed by the Iranian missiles, though, is gone – beyond repair.
Justified? Because Israel shouldn’t take out a-holes that planned Oct 7th and the next attack? Only in your world.
Eric,
Odd that you care about the “little Arab girl” when you have called for genocide against her and her people on this blog for years. So killing Arabs men, women and children is okay with you…..only if it is the US/Israel or the West doing it?
Crocodile tears. Just another “dead wog” to use your words.
Stefan,
I agree with you completely.
It’s been reported that Biden has already told Netanyahu that while the USA has assisted in the defence of Israeli air space there will be ZERO assistance from his Administration for any further escalation by Israel.
To my mind that is proof that Washington and Tehran have been in negotiation regarding the scope of this Iranian retaliation: The USA accepted that Iran were entitled to a retaliatory strike on Iran, but it had to be one-and-done.
Netanyahu can escalate if he wishes, but if he does then Israel is on its own.
Let’s see if he has any brains….
Yeah Right –
Your telepathic power is a bit skewed if you think the Ayatollahs would negotiate this with the Great Satan.
By the way, that US assistance in the defense of Israeli air space was substantial. US fighters took out a large chunk of the drones and SM-3 missiles took out a few ballistic missiles.
Leith,
The Brits flew out of Cyprus to assist and the Jordanians shot some down too.
Israel is now taking revenge on Hezbollah, that other great Islamic hope, and pounding them pretty good.
So many here desperately want Iran to be a big, scary, powerful destroyer of Israel. Same excuses they make for Russia’s failure to secure the Donbas and finish the war. There is an intense denial of reality that they don’t like. Any obvious sign of incompetence or weakness is interpreted as a 4D chess move and not what it appears to be. The mental gymnastics are Olympic gold medal level.
Eric –
The French downed a few also.
Definitely a loss for Iran. But Tehran did prod Netanyahu into responding with overkill sooner or later. And they proclaimed publicly that it was just a one-and-done attack and they now considered closed the 1 April IDF bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. So they are already setting the stage for some sympathy from the world when Netanyahu does launch a major strike on them directly.
Leith,
Yes. That is what Iran wants to do. IMO, Israel will punish Iran nit by attacking it directly and playing into their little scheme, but by pounding Iranian proxies, like Hezbollah. The US may have agreed to pound the Houtis into dust as part of the deal. Iran is nothing without its proxies.
leith, you always remind me of the old saying that when thought to be a fool you should stay silent, lest you open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Of course Tehran and Washington were in communication: Sullivan admitted as much when he said the day after the Embassy bombing that they told the Iranians they had nothing to do with it and had no prior knowledge.
Sweden is the normal intermediary, and I don’t doubt they were used this time.
Iran’s delay was to allow a deal to be struck: Military base? Sure, that’s reasonable. Two air bases? Errr, well, umm, OK, two bases, but one and done. We get to shoot at incoming, but we won’t escalate from there, you good with that?
I mean, honestly, get real: Iran doesn’t want a war. The USA doesn’t want a war. They BOTH known that Netanyahu wants them to fight.
OF COURSE they got together and outlined how they get what THEY want, which is to stop Bibi getting what HE wants.
Iran doesn’t want a war, yet they back Hamas – indeed plan Oct 7th per their own admission – and send a couple hundred missiles at Israel. Do you have any idea how utterly insane you – and Iran – sound?
Iran is going to get a war. It will be wiped out. Not today, most likely not tomorrow, but everything is now a fait accompli. They have sealed their fate with this latest dumb ass move. You, for your part, will continue to ponder and debate how 2+2= 3 or is it 5? or 22? Because you’re very smart and clever.
Yes, just like they did in Iraq. You dont see that Eric? You sound JUST like the pro Iraq folks did in the run up to that war.
Of course those with no skin in the game always bay loudest for blood. You wont be saddling up for the fight and seem more than willing to have another 4,000+ US soldiers die for your adventure.
No Stefan. The dummies that were for the Iraq war — and I was not among them – first wanted “take out” Saddam, which obviously was going to hand Iraq to Iran (which it did). 2. Nation build, a stupid idea that cannot be accomplished when working with raw material of the ilk found in the MENA.
I am talking about carpet bombing all Iranian military assets (and doing some other sneakier stuff too) such that Iran is utterly defanged. I do not recommend invading with boots on the ground, etc.
The good news is that if Iran and Pakistan keep shooting at each other, maybe the Pakies will just nuke Iran one of these days (I know, too good to be true, but a guy can always dream), but the point is that Iran doesn’t really have any friends other crazies, like your Houtis and Hamas – maybe Syria. Iran’s days are numbered any way you cut it.
As for 4K US KIA. I agree, those were good men and women that shouldn’t have died. However, militarily, for a war that went on as long as it did, those are extremely light casualties. And yes, both of my children fought there and in Afghanistan. So please stop mentioning that. I’m too old. I would have loved to go after AQ in Afghanistan.
Eric: “Do you have any idea how utterly insane you – and Iran – sound?”
I have a simple but very useful yardstick for evaluating hyperbole.
It is this: Reverse the actors and see if it still “sounds insane”.
As in: The USA doesn’t want a war, but it backs Ukraine.
As in: Israel didn’t want a war, but it backed Bachir Gemayel and his Christian militias.
As in: Donald Trump didn’t want a war, but he fired sixty tomahawk missiles into Syria.
As in: Netanyahu didn’t want a war, but he launched missiles into the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
So *I* sound insane because I point out that what Iran just did has numerous precedents, while *you* are a paragon of sanity for being laughably selective in your mock outrage?
Really?
Eric: “Iran is going to get a war. ”
Iran was ALWAYS going to get a war, Eric. The zionists and the neocons have never wavered from that goal.
Eric: “It will be wiped out.”
If you say so. I rather think they will emerge from this war occupying the territory former known as “Israel”.
Time will tell who is right, and who is insane.
YR –
It’s the Swiss Embassy in Tehran, which represents U.S. interests in Iran, not the Swedes. The Ayatollahs reached out to convey Iranian anger over the Israeli airstrike and that a response was imminent and that the US should stay away and not escalate. We haven’t escalated that I know of, but we did not ‘stay away’ as Tehran had demanded. Per CentCOM the US “targeted and destroyed more than 80 drones and at least six ballistic missiles that were meant to strike Israel from Iran and Yemen.” That’s not considered ‘staying away’.
Iran was determined to get their pound of flesh. It was inevitable. Nothing Blinken or Austin or Biden could have said to Tehran would have changed their mind. We perhaps may have warned them that if they hit US assets or troops or civilians that we would respond. But no way the US agreed to Iran’s attack on Israel.
We know that the ballistic missile targets were IDF. But do we know that the Shahed drones were also aimed at military targets? Or Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other cities?
Leith, the art of diplomacy is the art of give-and-take and allowing both sides to publically claim they got the better of the deal.
Iran’s public warning to Washington not to help Israel defend itself was the “give”, and their “take” was an undertaking from Washington that they would leave Netanyahu isolated on the issue of further escalation.
Equally, the American “take” was that they would “defy” Tehran’s threat to stand to one side, and their “give” was to agree not to escalate.
Western commentators are so used to the idea that “diplomacy” is nothing but veiled threats issued to weaklings that they struggle to recognize true diplomacy.
What is announced in public is NOT the gospel of what was agreed in private.
Look at what they *do*, not at what they *say*, and that way you’ll understand what was really agreed upon in private.
YR –
Washington did not want escalation. That could have led to a war that nobody in the US wants, except perhaps a fringe group hoping for the apocalypse.
Parallel thinking does not signify negotiations, neither does it imply a give-and-take. There was no gift to Iran.
leith: “Washington did not want escalation.”
Let me pick myself off the floor, because I believe that this is the first time you and I have agreed on… anything.
Leith: “Parallel thinking does not signify negotiations,”
And there ya’ go, ruining a good thing.
Honestly, are you THAT naive? Because nobody can be that clueless.
Netanyahu wants the USA to go to war with Iran.
Iran knows that
The USA knows that.
Heck, even you and I, TTG and Eric know that.
EVERYONE knows that.
Yet you want me to accept that in such a circumstance where the shared national security interests of both the USA and Iran are *so* very obvious that nonetheless they wouldn’t talk to each other because They Don’t Like Each Other?
Really?
Pig’s F**king Ass, if you excuse my French.
Look, your argument assumes that the diplomats in both Washington and Tehran were born yesterday and have no idea of “diplomacy”
It is a child’s view of the world and, so sorry, I am much too old for such nonsense.
YR –
I don’t deny that the US and Iran sent back-channel warnings to each other. Of course they did. I said that earlier in the comment at 9:38pm on the 15th. However, your assumption that a ‘deal’ was negotiated seems only to be based on speculation. Maybe Carnac the Magnificent or the Amazing Kreskin know the truth, ask them.
Try this one: Biden wanted Israel to drain out their Iron Dome defensive supplies, then not re-arm them leaving Israel defenseless for the real October pre-election surprise attack – Biden’s Dearborn (D) voters are counting on this.
leith: “However, your assumption that a ‘deal’ was negotiated seems only to be based on speculation.”
No shit, Sherlock.
As sentences go that is a masterful statement of the f**king obvious.
And, furthermore, I am going to speculate that anyone who agrees that back-channel communications took place between Washington and Tehran but who insists that the Iranians did NOT get a green light from the Americans is …. delusional.
YR –
Toning down your insults would greatly benefit your discourse. This is not the Moon Over Alabama website.
Speculate all you want.
Point taken.
Considered as retaliation, the Iranian strikes appear to be fundamentally unserious. They knew that most, possibly all, would be intercepted. They can’t have expected to do real damage.
What they did accomplish was a comprehensive stress test of missile defenses in the middle east. Under circumstances that enable the whole assault to be accepted as a one-off, not prompting or requiring further actions. If they had done this two weeks earlier, it would have been an act of war with all sorts of undesirable consequences. Now they get to do it with everybody shrugging and saying “Of course they had to respond.” Or even “The Iranians can’t do shit.”
Now they know the defense order of battle in some detail. They are examining every aspect of what worked, what didn’t, and what they could do differently. And don’t kid yourself that nothing worked. Various launches got variously close to success. The factors involved in that will suggest what alternative strikes might have succeeded. I am not saying that they would not have celebrated any actual success that happened. But any success now would have been taken as par for the course. Arguably the real goal was to enable a future successful strike. This was a trial run courtesy of the Israelis, not the real thing.
fredw,
Are you sure you’re not overthinking it?
I mean there was nothing about the drones and the response to them as incoming that should be a mystery. You fly some slow drones over a great distance and your enemy has a very good chance at shooting them all down – and in fact does. What was the big revelation?
You may be overthinking it. Keep it simple. A face-saving event after the Damascus embassy attack.
wtofd,
How does failing to destroy anything/kill anyone significant save face?
Israel identifies, targets and kills Iranian planners of Oct 7th in a perfect operation. Bad ass stuff. Iran flails around, makes talk and has a bunch of drones and missiles shot down, hitting nothing of value. Looks like doubling down on embarrassment to me.
Eric, slow down. I was agreeing with you. I should have written, “fredw,…”
To answer your question, it saves face with the internal audience. Yes, impotent for now.
No. I am not sure that I haven’t overthought it. That’s why I put the thought out here to get the reaction of actual (or ex-) military people. The fact that there was no mystery is what bothers me. For a very predictable result of no effect, expending 300 armaments seems excessive. 50 could have failed just as convincingly. I can believe that military officers tend to want to throw in everything and see what works. But given the distances and times and the Ukrainian track record, it was pretty predictable that nothing would work. I could see trying everything a couple times, but 300 missiles? That is a pretty expensive hail Mary. (Though admittedly not as expensive as taking them down.)
Since I posted this, I have seen some similar thoughts at Mondoweiss, but they are not (as far as I know) military. I also see F&L describing this as a “fictitious” attack. But it wasn’t fictitious. It packed enough punch to force air defense to use the arms that it had. They couldn’t just take it easy and apply a portion of their strength. And that, I think, was the attack’s purpose.
I am a bit out of my depth here. I have no actual experience of air defense technology or technique. I would be very interested in any thoughts the contributors to turcopolier have about it.
fredw,
I wouldn’t call this attack fictitious, but I would call it theater, a message to both internal and external audiences. It was a substantial attack, but not meant to cause devastating damage.
This is not unique. Iran’s Jan 2020 missile attack on two Iraqi air bases housing US troops caused over a hundred TBI injuries. Targeting was very accurate, but missed troop housing. It was a message for killing Suleimani and it was also measured theater for a wide audience. Obama’s Tomahawk attack on the Syrian airbase was the same kind of theater. He sent a message about chemical weapons because he talked himself into a corner, but made sure there was minimal damage. We warned both the Russians and the Syrians of the attack.
Could the Iranians launch a much larger attack and sustain it for several days, an attack meant to cause real damage? I don’t know. I also don’t know if the substantial Israeli air defense system could handle such an attack. I did notice that a couple of US fighter squadrons were instrumental in shooting down a large number of drones and missiles. That’s a lesson for the F-16s when they finally get to Ukraine.
TTG,
Then, by your assessment, everyone is afraid of getting into a real war, Good.
The problem is these Iranian/Hamas/Houti jerks want their cake and eat it too. No real war, please, but they also think they get to commit terrorist mass casualty events, piracy, etc. whenever they feel like it. I don’t see how the rest of the world (includes Sunnis) doesn’t drop the roof on their heads one of these days.
TTG,
That would be Trump’s attack in Syria not Obama’s. The Iranians don’t need to sustain an attack for days, just wait for the naval support not to be there and launch continuously so you wear out the opponents aircraft. Kind of like all those spent artillery tubes which don’t seem to be a problem two years into the war in Ukraine.
Fred,
Yes, you’re right. Trump launched the Tomahawk attack in 2017. Obama dithered about his “red line” for five years before that. It was all in reaction to rather iffy evidence of a Syrian poison gas attack.
It was USAF F-15E Strike Eagles that took down 70 of the Iranian drones. Based in RAF Lakenheath and North Carolina, the F-15Es flew out of Jordan and maybe Iraq. The Brits took down another 30 drones flying out of Cyprus. A Patriot battery in Irbil took down one missile and SM-3 missiles from the USS Arleigh Burke and USS Carney took down another 4 to 6 missiles.
All those Russian spent artillery tubes were being replaced by the tubes from the vast quantities of artillery and tanks left in open air storage. Aerial photos show a lot of tubeless artillery and tanks left to rust in those storage areas. Faulty NK ammo isn’t doing those tubes any favor either.
“Targeting was very accurate, but missed troop housing.”
No.
Targeting was not aimed at troop housing.
Killing US soldiers would have been counterproductive.
aleksandar,
That was my point. The US assessed that Iranian missiles were very accurate from that attack. The targeting was deliberate.
fredw
Thank you for helping make my case. Instead of allowing this Iranian probe into Israel’s defenses, Israel and the USA should have taken the opportunity to pound Iran into the dirt. Just like that. They die, we win, whose next :- )
LOL Just like Iraq. Iran is bigger, more men and better armed than Iraq was. We lost 4,000+ troops there and our actions spawned ISIS.
But you think it will be as easily as pounding them into the dirt and that is it. You signing up to put your boots on the ground? Your kids? I have two sons of military age. I guess okay for them to fight and die because you think it will be “just like that”.
I suggest you look back at the Colonel’s comments on war with Iran. It was talked about multiple times throughout the years.
I wish he was here to talk brutal sense to people.
Vietnam, Afghanistan. We beat hell out of them.
Your jingo talk is silly.
There will be no big war between Iran and Israel because Israel will not retaliate against Iran.
And this is because Iran launched a fictitious attack on Israel, warning Israel in advance about the attack.
And this is because neither Iran nor Israel nor the United States wants a big war there.
But the proxy war between Iran and Israel will continue as it has been going on for many years.
That may benefit the defense industry, but that’s why I hold out hope for war, real war. They die or we die, who wins the war -?
Yes,F&L, theatre, Bloody silly theatre Came across someone speculating hundreds of millions went up in smoke last night, one way or another. Sinister theatre. Always the possibility of desperate or unforeseen escalation. But theatre.
Plays more or less as normal in the West. Not so sure about the planet as a whole. Got a feeling many outside the West are watching intently and saying to themselves, when the hell do these dumb Westerners get off the stage.
The Golden Billion. The entitled. We set the rules based international order and do our virtuous best to school the barbarians outside the West in those same rules. For their own good, ultimately, of course. The world could not be run properly unless under the rules. We hold the pass for global enlightenment and prosperity.
So why should we not regulate the affairs of those outside the law? Guide the footsteps of the barbarians. Concern ourselves in their affairs, regulate them where needed, punish them when called for. And if a few million here and there perish when we intervene well, they’re only barbarians. Someone has to ensure they too can travel towards the light. We are the Guardians. We are the Entitled.
So the impression I get looking around the Western press over the last couple of years. That automatic sense of entitlement, of the right to instruct however we think best wherever we think best, would be irritating enough to those outside were our countries indeed beacons of prosperity and models of enlightened government. But what it must look like to them given we’re all living in countries slowly approaching the dysfunctional, I can’t imagine. Not surprised most of ’em just can’t wait for us to get off the stage and out of their hair.
F&L,
I agree with all that. We’re lucky that there are nations that don’t want a full scale war including the US, Iran and China. I don’t think Russia wants one bigger than the one she has right now. Everyone makes a lot of tough talk and threatening gentures, but don’t want to go beyond that.
I agree that USA and Iran don’t want to get into a real war right now, especially with each other. OTOH, it’s pretty obvious that Israel – and/or its current leaders – *really* wants that to happen. Biden understands this, but our NatSec bureaucracies are infested with NeoCons whose highest priority seems to be getting the US into another war in the Middle East (see: “real men go to Teheran”).
I was pleasantly surprised to hear that the US will not join in any Israeli retaliation for this attack. However, that announcement went on to say that we will continue to help defend Israel; presumably this means that if Israel bombs Iran, and Iran strikes back, we would help block any Iranian response.
This seems like a reasonable approach, but it’s really something between a band-aid and a fig leaf. The “band-aid” is that it doesn’t go far enough in discouraging Israel from escalating: if we’re going to protect them no matter what they do, why shouldn’t they go for it? And the “fig leaf” is the problem that the rest of the world will view us as responsible for Israel’s retaliation anyway (and of course, any bombs Israel drops on Iran will still have that “Made in USA” label…).
I just hope that the Biden Admin somehow finds a way to get Bibi on a leash, but he doesn’t seem like a cooperative puppy.
elkern,
Now there is no reason to go to war directly with Iran. Iran has signaled its weakness in no uncertain terms.
Israel can now concentrate on mopping up Iran’s proxies and should feel relatively secure after accomplishing that. The US will assist.
It is clear that Hamas and Palestinians (as if there is a distinction) are now isolated, on their own and under fire. That is a key message of Iran’s impotent gesture. There is little Iran will do to militarily support the Palestinians because Iran is conflict adverse. Same for Hezbollah. All that death to Israel talk was hot air.
These Islamic terror organizations now know that they must fend for themselves. Long term, they cannot survive on their own, should Israel + US + Brits + France (and others) come gunning for them. So they must be far more circumspect, even reconciliatory.
The geopolitical stage – or at least the MENA part of it – changed sets for a new act the other night. For the better, IMO. Bad actors will have to eventually stand down without a support from an Iran that has proven to the world that it is neither as truly fanatical as it made itself out to be nor die-hard nor ready to fight an existential fight, which is what its proxies thought it would do. Iran has been drawn out and “punked”, by itself; albeit skillfully brought to that point by Israeli chess playing. I salute Netanyahu’s calculations. Brilliant. Well done, sir.
I think the anti-west/anti-Israel crowd knows this, which is why we are seeing so much disingenuous nonsense about the accuracy and power of Iranian missiles and the moral righteous of the attack for added emotional feelz goods. The bots know that the jig is up, the wizard behind the curtain revealed as a sick, old, runt – and they hate it and can’t face it.
Wow. (and not in a good way).
My basic rule for the Iranians is: They are just as disorganized and just as crazy as some of the other players in the Middle East, but they are not incompetent. They could have achieved their PR goals with far less than 300 missiles. Assuming their basic competence, they knew that they were not going to achieve real harm on the Israelis. So I have been pondering what it was they thought they could achieve. Two things occurred to me: map air defenses for the next time and bring this round to an end.
As retaliation, this looks pitiful. Since they are in fact competent opponents, they knew that it would. So they made a massive effort with some other goal(s) in mind. Possibly clearing out a backlog of obsolete hardware. But it appears so far to have achieved those two goals.
Fredw,
The goal may be nothing more than giving the IDF a reason to pause before lobbing munitions into and assassinating Iranians in Syria.
Anti missile missiles and air to air missiles are expensive. The defense against this strike might have burned up half to a full billion worth of ordinance and everybody is on a budget. “No damage” is not what the bean counters are thinking right now.
Mark Logan,
Some non-interventionist US politician might even start talking about how US taxpayers are trading $1,000,000 dollar Amraams for $20,000 Shaheds – all to benefit those darn foreigners.
Mark Logan,
1.3 billion say some:-
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-breaches-anglo-zionist-defenses
“Anglo-Zionist” I don’t agree with. The French would be quite upset being called Anglos. And the other Euros. “Simplicius” is excellent for sources on the other war and gives plenty of sources here.
But it’s not the money. As in that other war, it’s the supply. The Izzies are on a loser on this one and should back off hurriedly. Stick to shooting unarmed civilians. It’s cheaper.
EO,
Depends on what the objective of killing those generals actually was. Might have been simply assassinating a threat, might have been an attempt to provoke this attack.
Just speculating, but it’s an open secret Bibi would like to strike the Iranian nuke program and generally reduce Iran to a condition of harmlessness. I would not put it past him to attempt a deliberate provocation with the objective of Iranian retaliation which caused great harm within Israel to get that project underway.
Had that happened from this strike Bibi might well today have broad-spread support, domestically and otherwise, for that project. He might actually but privately disappointed by the light damage today.
Fredw,
Perhaps you are correct (not so sure personally, but maybe) about the ulterior motive and competency. Certainly, as a retaliation, this looks pitiful, as you say.
However, “mapping” things goes both ways. And now we have drone and missile carcasses and parts to study, just in case we didn’t previously.
“As retaliation, this looks pitiful. ”
It all depends on how many holes there are in those two air bases that were hit, which we don’t know and the IDF is being very cagey about.
I am convinced that everything else that was up in the sky that night was intended for one purpose and one purpose only – to open a hole in the IDF air defences for those ballistic missiles to come in an smack those two airfields.
If the Iranians did significant damage then they won this round.
If the Iranians failed to do significant damage then the Israelis won.
Simple as that.
If the price for taking out Iranian terrorist leadership is a few easily repaired holes in the tarmac, I’m sure Israel is perfectly willing to pay it.
And I agree that the Israelis would take that bargain.
But what if the damage was more than just a pothole in a tarmac?
YR,
The damage is to Hamas and Hezbollah. They now understand that Iran doesn’t want to fight and won’t support them to the bitter end. The terrorists are on their own. As such, they will either calm down and hopefully stop murdering, or be wiped out.
A few holes in a tarmac for that result is like buying Manhattan for a handful of beads.
Checkmate, Israel
Eric: “A few holes in a tarmac for that result is like buying Manhattan for a handful of beads.”
And, again, one more time: what if the result was more than just a few holes in a tarmac?
If The Same Amount of Drones And Missles From Russia…That Had Gotten Through Like They Do in Ukraine…..There Would Have Been alot of Damage To Israel..Schools..Apartments..Etc..
Israel Knows How Much Damage Iran Intended….But Israel…Had Alot of Help
With Defense…That Ukraine Doesnt Get…
I Think..At Some Point…Iran Will Get Hit Hard Enough ,,Other Nations like Russia
Will Rush In To Control The Oil…Iran Will Have No Defense Capability’s…And
The Saudis May Israel by g Out Taking The Swift Boat Threats..
I Wonder if a Few Submarines Pooped Out That May Drones and Missles off of
California..From LA..To Frisco..To Sacramento…To Old Crazy Eyes Vineyard..
How of Them Wpould Get Shot Down…Like In Israel…???
Fact Is…Situation is is 100 Yard Dash…By Willy Makit…
Killroy Was Here.. WW Drei….Or Wait…Maybe First Its.”Peace at Last..Peace At Last”
Thank God…Peace At Last..” Then….Visibilty Gets Poor.. Perhaps..It is Written..
Summary of what got hit. Damage is known only to Israel.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-breaches-anglo-zionist-defenses
Quote:
“IRGC has listed its objectives for last nights missile attack: Ramon and Nevatim airbases (where attack on Iran Consulate was conducted from). Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv (where attack on Iran Consulate was planned) and degrading of Israeli air defence radars and assets.”
Complementary analysis from pro-Iranian side.
https://twitter.com/fadiquran/status/1779426300760850642
Poul – apologies. Didn’t see you’d noted it until too late.
I’d be interested to see the final analysis from the US/Israeli side. My impression is that the air defense efficiency against ballistic missiles was not good, probably closer to 50% and these were “second-rate” Iranian missiles. I am sure China is watching with interest since Taiwan’s missile defense systems come with same basic US technology as Israel’s.
Overall, I see the situation worsening for Israel. Gambit to draw US and Iran into a war has failed. In addition to hitting Israel, Iran also seized an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf. This was not so subtle message to the US that Gulf can be closed should they chose to do so and it worked since US shut down further Israeli escalation.
Hamas has retaken the northern Gaza after the Israeli pullout, Hezbollah is still a threat in southern Lebanon and now Iran has shown it’s capable of hitting Israel directly. Israel doesn’t have a clear “victory condition”, while Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran can just sit and wait for the Israeli economy to implode under the weight of military expenditures and economic dislocation. All they need to do is lob a few missiles every few days to keep the tension up.
voislav,
Here’s a few bits and pieces of a US and British assessment:
For those that veered off course, you have to wonder whether IDF could have used electronic countermeasures to jam or spoof the missile guidance system? Although Iran says that the ones that hit Nevatim Air base were a new model that has extremely high maneuverability. That would be the Kheibarshekan missile just fielded two years ago. And perhaps they’ve hardened the guidance system and use ECCM against jamming?
Regarding the failed ballistic missile launches at least one ended up in a neighborhood near Shiraz in Iran. Does NSA have a capability for space-based jamming of launch sites? That would be huge but I’ll remain a skeptic until proven otherwise. For a bit of humor in these dire times, Yahoo commenter Carl says he thinks that “not the right proportions of vinegar and baking soda for the missile launches” were used.
So it seems that Iran scored at least 12 hits, 7 on Nevatim and 5 on Ramon air base. Assuming that only 60-70 ballistic missiles that successfully launched were actually targeted, that would make it ~80% intercept efficiency.
Considering the assets committed by US, UK, and others, ample time to prepare for the attack with the advance notice and the associated ordnance expenditure it’s not very impressive.
I am not considering drones here as these are clearly cannon fodder, vulnerable assets intended to deplete air defense assets rather than cause damage.
I think that most of that 80% were launched as decoys/distraction only. It seems there were 4 waves: drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and then the final wave of ballistic missiles were the ones that scoring that 12 hits. Very hard for current AD systems in the world to counter. We have not seen the Russian S500 in action yet. The S500 (and future Russian S600) likely are more advance than Arrow, David’s Sling, and THAAD. Because Russia has fielded hypersonic missiles for a few years now, so their AD would have lot of experience intercepting those in their tests.
This is the correct conclusion.
Claiming that Israel shot down 99% of the decoys that Iran put into the air is akin to claiming that Israel was successfully suckered in 99% of the time.
And the other 1%?
Well, by the time the IDF had realized they’d been suckered in those missiles were already impacting the true targets that Iran had set themselves.
So in terms of success/failure the IDF were successfully suckered in 99% of the time, and revealed to be impotent and defenseless for the rest of the time.
If Eric and his fellow travelers want to beat their hairy chest over that then they are welcome to it, but I suspect the professionals in the IDF and the USAF are still in a state of profound shock.
Or, maybe not. Perhaps they really are that stupid.
I Read that all The Long Range Ballistic Missles North Korea Sent Russia…Have Not Launched Or Worked Well In Ukraine…
So Did Iran Have a Mix of Those..and Their Own Of Chinese Design…( Out Sourcers) And Thier Attack in
Isreal Was Pat for Effect…Part…Deception..and
Part To Gather Intel on Western and Israeli Responses…And Platforts…>>?
Im Thinking Lebanon…is The Closer Threat…Shorter Flight Times..Stock Piles..Cooie Tray…Levela And Types of Attack…Land..Sea..And Air…Especially if Its
Also Their…JOINT Response..
As For Me…Its my Fish and Chips with Cole Slaw Day…
and a Henrys Lager..
Jim –
Iran used to acquire their ballistic missiles and/or components from North Korea. Lately they have been building their own. Except perhaps for some electronic components in the guidance systems. I imagine the IRGC goons are now busily investigating the missile designers. Probably giving them the bastinado for such poor performance of their missiles during the attack on Israel.
Henrys lager? Are you in Portland?
Leith..
Portland…No…I Like Henrys Beer…Good Flavor..
I Like The Oregon Coast…Good Food…Nice scenery…Stock up on Beer..and Kite Flying…
Or Hiking Lava Tubes Around Shasta…In the
Trinity Area.. Cheers and Beers…Prost
Jim –
Lava tubes? We’ve got lava tubes up here in Washington State. Come and hike the Ape Caves. It can get crowded in the summer though, 170,000 visitors all looking for Sasquatch.
Out of subject.
Last week, once again, the Russians bombed themselves at the Energodar nuclear power plant. We know they’ve been occupying it for over a year and they’ve shut it down for safety. The bastards even destroyed the only power supply line coming from Russia. This line is vital for cooling the six reactors.
Now, the domes covering the six hot nuclear facilities are proof against shells and explosive drones, but the risks of catastrophic weakening are not zero.
When will the Russians stop playing with the risks of a sixfold Chernobil?
Irresponsible, if you ask me.
The IAEA has observers on site. They’re counting the blows. But they don’t want to blame the Russians. It’s a weakness that could cost the whole of Europe dearly, given the prevailing winds.
A recognized authority absolutely must put the Russians on notice to stop bombing themselves.
d74,
Thanks for the dark humor! but be careful, without the /s tag I have no doubt some commenters in this forum will actually believe you’re serious.
Mentioned here:-
The Zaporozhiye NPP reported the arrival of Ukrainian combat drones in the area of the cargo port and nitrogen-oxygen station, no damage to critical infrastructure was recorded.
7th/8th April Overnight
The Zaporizhye NPP was attacked again overnight but there was minimal damage. Three employees of the plant sustained injuries.
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-b97
Psycho territory, the various attacks on the ZNPP, particularly the artillery attacks. But then, so much of what we’ve been doing in Ukraine is psycho territory. All in a day’s work though for our people and their people authorising and planning it. Even when it’s as blatant as this example. The IAEA timid to the point of complicity.
Most in England believe it’s the Russians who were shelling that plant. Information war really does work.
It is futile to speculate on the success/failure of the attack without knowing what the goals were. Alastair Crooke described Iran’s aims in this strike on Judge’s show (link below).
TL;DR Iran wanted to “re-establish deterrence”. It did that. Israel can expect to be hit directly from Iran in the future. Biden’s messaging to Israel makes it clear the US has accepted this new status quo. Whether Israel accepts it is another question of course. This is a huge shift and a blow (so far) for Israel’s own aim to be feared again. Crooke is one of the very few people who really knows his subject on Israel/Iran and also gets the eschatological nature of the war. I’d advise everyone to listen to his views.
A few observations of my own: This attack was clearly calculated not to force Israel into a response. A massive attack and widespread damage/casualties would have led directly to hot war and Iran doesn’t want that. It is ludicrous to suggest Iran expected any of the drones or cruise missiles to get through – the attack was telegraphed loudly for 2 weeks. Having said that, Israeli air defense (with some outside help) has proved to be the best in the world – as we should have expected. How it would fair under a much larger and surprise saturation attack is an open question. If Bibi wants to find out he knows what to do.
The propaganda value for Iran of pictures of missiles fired from her territory falling behind Al-Aqsa mosque is almost incalculable for Iran’s standing in the Muslim world (Turkey is the big loser here).
Iran’s messaging in invoking UN Article 51 (its right to self defense for the consulate attack) was very interesting. To my ears the legalistic tone echoed the pedantic legalism Russia uses around its military actions. I don’t think that is a coincidence and this fact is actually the biggest news of all – i.e. Russia is clearly an active part of the Axis of Resistance and quite possibly helping Iran orchestrate it.
https://youtu.be/u1vdquXGyX0?t=616
Barbara,
“Having said that, Israeli air defense (with some outside help) has proved to be the best in the world – as we should have expected”
I have to disagree with that. The combination of Arrow, David’s Sling, and THAAD (US system) could not prevent Iran’s missiles getting through and hit the 2 bases in Negev desert. Since Batlle Damage Assessment (BDA) has not been releavel by the Israelis, my guess is it was very serious damage.
Every drone and cruise missile in this attack were just decoys, except for the missiles that successfully impact (there was unconfirmed report that number was 7). The targets were those 2 bases and another base in Golan Height. This tactic was used by the Russians to take out 2 Patriot batteries in Ukraine (there were quite a few reports and videos on the net about that Russian attack).
“Iran’s messaging in invoking UN Article 51 (its right to self defense for the consulate attack) was very interesting. To my ears the legalistic tone echoed the pedantic legalism Russia uses around its military actions”
Exactly, but I would not use the term “pedantic legalism”, Russia has been making a point in using UN articles to contrast their actions with “rules base international order” that the West has been so fond of repeating. And it is a good thing, IMO. We have no idea of whose rules and what order when someone saying that.
Barbara Ann – “To my ears the legalistic tone echoed the pedantic legalism Russia uses around its military actions.”
And the same use of Article 51 that followed the hasty recognition of the Republics, just to point up the similarity.
No one else but you saw that similarity. I didn’t. Bet your State Department has though. And are pondering it.
The Great Game isn’t what it was. Used to be you could stir up the tribes in the Yemen or the North-West Frontier and job done. The pieces on the Grand Chessboard didn’t even know they’d been played. If they’re learning tricks from the wily Lavrov that game is over.
All is not lost even yet! The failing Empires of the West still have resort to us.
The Tribes outside the Law may learn our tricks but the tribal animosities of Old Europe still remain, potent and keen as ever. Katyn was yesterday and Barbarossa only this morning. The stern Guardians of Empire can play the game with us instead.
Barbara Ann,
I have been suspecting for some time that “Russia is an active part in the Axis of Resistance” because:
– Russia is fighting NATO proxies in Ukraine so why would they not respond “in kind” by attacking a NATO ally through proxies
– Oct 7th seemed too sophisticated to me to be planned by Arabs (and I say that as someone who has spent a bunch of time in Arab countries)
– Oct 7th put the kibosh on an Israel-KSA rapprochement … which was necessary for Russia/China to continue to pull KSA into their sphere of influence. Getting both KSA and Iran in a functional BRICS alliance will make Brzezinski spin in his grave.
The Cold War is Over…WW2 Ended Thermal… Now All Events…WWW..
Are Going Thermal Again…Russia is The Player…Tearing Down The Walls..
and Shaking a Fist At God….
Along with The Children…Who all were Told to Grab some Banners…and Flags…
Ho Ho Ho…and Wander across the Golden Gae Bridge…for Five Hours
And Then Uncle Joe would Give Them Free Ice Cream…and they all Went home
to Watch Them self’s on TV…and Giggle…
They Could Have All Fallen off the Bridge..Into The Water…But The FREE ice Cream
Saved Them from being Lemmings..Today..I wonder …Where Else they can
Go.??..Some Where Warm…Hot Maybe…Thermal…Perhaps..No Ice Cream..
A guy in a Red Suit…Joker Joe…with Lip stick…
Last Big Show…It Is Written..In Production…The Broadway…To Hell…
A silver lining from the attack emerges. The Abraham Accords still has life and the proposed “BRI killer” IMEC corridor has been quietly used to bypass choke points controlled by Iran/Russia/China on the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb.
Jordan Protects Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/jordanian-jets-shot-down-dozens-of-iranian-drones-flying-toward-israel-sources-say/
UAE Protects Israel
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-797149
Saudi Arabia Protects Israel
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/saudi-arabia-acknowledges-helping-defend-israel-against-iran-797201
IMEC Corridor has already been secretly used since February
https://www.timesofisrael.com/houthi-bypass-quietly-goods-forge-overland-path-to-israel-via-saudi-arabia-jordan/
IMEC Corridor at G20 (circa September 2023, one month before the attack) it is likely the reason for the attack, to dissolve the Abraham Accords and sink the corridor.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/india-middle-east-trade-corridor-region-jockeying-influence
It has been the plan all along
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/edited-india-controlling-israels-haifa-port-is-a-part-of-evolving/
Israel’s greatest revenge would be full recognition of a Palestinian state in exchange for security to counterbalance Iranian axis of resistance and trade route to leapfrog the BRI.
Part of the plan all along? India’s control of global ports. Did something go wrong in Baltimore with the “Indian” cargo ship Dali and the powers that be?
(2012) AHMEDABAD: Nation’s leading private port operator, Adani Port SEZ (APSEZ), today inked a MoU with the US based Port of Baltimore for trade facilitation.
The MoU was signed here between APSEZ Director Malay Mahadevia and Port of Baltimore Director Maritime Commercial Management Michael W Miller.
“With this MoU, Mundra and other Adani group owned ports shall benefit in terms of technology upgradation or transfer from the US, which has been a leader in this sphere,” APSEZ Direc ..
Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/shipping-/-transport/adani-port-sez-inks-mou-with-port-of-baltimore/articleshow/11992233.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Jaye,
As a bot you need a bit more training. MoU is short for memorandum of understanding. It didn’t give India control of the Port of Baltimore. But thanks for the decade old article.
Condottiere,
Israel and a bunch of Bedouins are going to leapfrog China? BRI is part of a larger Chinese strategy that is modeled after what the US did after WWII in terms of promoting international trade, investing in developing nations, and exporting sophisticated manufacturables like automobiles, airplanes, and semiconductors. IMEC is going to do what – help India’s pathetic manufacturers export to Europe? China is quaking in her boots I am sure.
Condottiere,
According to RT, Saudi Arabia denies protecting Israel:
https://www.rt.com/news/596007-saudi-arabia-iran-drone-israel/
So somebody is spreading fake news.
Oh yeah Russia would never spread fake news and yes China is shaking in their boots for admittingly (still) having a Malacca Dilemma, thanks to our Afghani pullout fiasco gifting weapons to their militant enemies that emboldened terror on the old silk road and Xinjiang and CPEC(oh and Myanmars Civil war helps too), and admittinly having an army “wimps, sissies, and little emperors” thanks to their one child policy. Paper dragon. India is set to replace them with a younger work force of cheap labor and IMEC will later encompass energy pipelines bringing ME product to Trump’s Three Seas Initiative ports, giving Europe an alternative to Russian energy.
Condottiere,
Haiti has cheap labour – are they about to dominate the rest of the world economically?
If you look at nations that prospered economically in the 20th century – Taiwan, Japan, South Korea – they have highly educated work forces and excellent infrastructure. They are all in the top 10 in PISA rankings.
China scores at the top of the world in academic achievement (PISA, Nature Index), while India ranked last in PISA until they dropped out because their feeling were hurt by their poor performance.
China has best in class rail, ports and roads while India has 3rd world class rail, ports, and roads. The only reason India has any functioning rail is because the British built it.
Most who know their history don’t at all like the way the Israelis got control of the old Mandate Palestine. But accept that now they’re there best thing is for them to stay there and try to get along somehow with the people they’ve dispossessed. A tall order, perhaps, but the only chance they’ve got. I reckon they’re passing that chance up.
If that “Simplicius” article (Sorry for double linking Poul!) is anything like correct the Iranians have missiles Western AD can’t cope with.
We know that there are Russian missiles Western AD can’t cope with. Martyanov goes into all that in detail. It’s not impossible that the Iranians have these advanced missiles too. I recollect an Iranian video of a missile silo where the missiles were lined up on a conveyor belt ready to be launched one after the other, something like the belt feed into a machine gun but on a gigantic scale. If they have many such silos the Iranians could send off dozens or maybe hundreds of these missiles in short order. An Iranian Masada would be quite a fireworks show.
This time the Iranians sent only a few such missiles. Given that this attack was telegraphed in advance our failure to shoot down these advanced missiles is significant.
This Israeli missile episode isn’t like Ukraine, where the Americans could just possibly be keeping their best stuff back in case it falls into enemy hands or for fear of escalation. This is the best AD the West has and it’s not good enough even against what was no more than a little demonstration. We also know that Hezbollah could send over swarms of less advanced missiles faster than the Israelis could shoot them down and probably faster than the US and the Israelis could destroy all the launch sites. A Hezbollah Masada would not be an insignificant fireworks show either.
There was a debate on the Colonel’s site a while ago on Israel. In brief and as I recollect it, the Colonel brushed aside the arguments that AIPAC or the Evangelicals/Christian Zionists had an arm lock on US foreign policy. I don’t think the Colonel had any time for the “Anglo-Zionist conspiracy” talk either. He reckoned that if the time came when Israel ceased to be useful to the US it would be dumped.
It’s not only ceasing to be useful. It’s effectively undefendable. And it’s being driven ever further into a corner by a chance coalition of Israeli politicians who would like very much to lay waste the enemy but don’t have the means to do so without laying waste their own country.
Masada politicians. They’re mad enough to have a go at that. Seems there are a few in Washington – don’t know how many – mad enough to help them do so. Though I’d guess most such are just wild talkers strutting their stuff for the donors. The Europoodles don’t know their arse from their elbow and demonstrate that daily so they’re out of the reckoning. This is an affair in which Biden and Netanyahu have the say for the West.
Unless those two find some way of pulling back the result will either be apocalypse or, very much more probable, what we’re seeing at the moment. A steady drain of Israelis leaving the country for somewhere safer. The country itself thereby weakened economically. And the Jabotinsky true believers and the Haredim and the gun toting zealots coming in to help grab Palestinian property will be all that’s left.
That’s not really the basis for a viable country long term. Those who’d like to see the Israelis live peacefully and prosper – I’m one of them and so are most others – should not fool themselves that Biden and Netanyahu are going the right way about it.
EO,
“Most who know their history don’t at all like the way the Israelis got control of the old Mandate Palestine.”
Perhaps perfidious Albion’s breaking up of the Ottoman Empire, along with a couple of others, wasn’t the best thing to do.
Fred – yup. Don’t know how much of that old history gets remembered now. As a boy I had some slight contact with it from knowing people who’d served in Palestine in Mandate times. Wish I’d listened more!
After WWI we and the French divvied up the ME between us. It was a surprisingly acrimonious co-imperium. We grabbed Palestine, which by rights the French should have got. Pity that because we really screwed up there. Maybe the French would have done better. Probably. They could scarcely have done worse.
After WWII the US took over the reins and kicked both us and the French out, Eisenhower tactfully underlining the point by showing us both the door during the Suez crisis.
The French retained a strong interest in the top bit of the ME, however, and we hung on to our interest in a few of the minor countries. Both we and the French stick around the place a bit doing creepy stuff with SF and the like. Old habits die hard.
That’s about it though. It’s your baby now. Or maybe the inhabitants of the region’ll get a look in some day.
Although most of that history is now forgotten the disasters it led to are still with us, Despite it’s unusual origins Israel’s a fairly standard example of a late-colonial settler state. Best analogue is Rhodesia. There too settler colonialism continued into modern times and there too it caused any amount of trouble.
The rules for settler states are relatively simple. You integrate with the local population or kill them or drive them out. Full ethnic cleansing does quite well, Full integration too. But partial ethnic cleansing and no integration spells trouble.
The Israelis have no intention of doing the integration thing and only ever managed partial ethnic cleansing. That’s why they’re stuck. It used to be all the rage, killing off or driving out the natives when you wanted a bit of Lebensraum. These days not. Such as the Kurds and the Turks can still get away with it when it’s done away from the cameras. The Israelis have to do in the full glare of publicity so it’s difficult.
The Israelis know all this perfectly well. Some of their writers say in terms that they should have cleared out all the Palestinians when they had the chance, Jabotinsky plus. Benny Morris:-
“But my feeling is that this place would be quieter and know less suffering if the matter had been resolved once and for all. If Ben-Gurion had carried out a large expulsion and cleansed the whole country – the whole Land of Israel, as far as the Jordan River. It may yet turn out that this was his fatal mistake. If he had carried out a full expulsion – rather than a partial one – he would have stabilized the State of Israel for generations.”
I don’t think Morris is saying there that that should have been done. He’s just saying that’s the only way it could have been done so it worked. Since it wasn’t, this is his verdict on what we Brits left in Palestine:-
“We are the greater victims in the course of history and we are also the greater potential victim. Even though we are oppressing the Palestinians, we are the weaker side here. We are a small minority in a large sea of hostile Arabs who want to eliminate us.
“So it’s possible than when their desire is realized, everyone will understand what I am saying to you now. Everyone will understand we are the true victims. But by then it will be too late.”
My view also. Both Palestinians and Israelis are now paying the price for mistakes made in the past. By us. Victims both. But does recognising that go any way towards putting it right? Doubt it.
………………………
Scrounged the (very simplified) history above from two fine books by James Barr.
A Line in the Sand: Britain, France and the Struggle That Shaped the Middle East Paperback – 26 April 2012 (Previously linked to on Colonel Lang’s site)
Lords of the Desert: Britain’s Struggle with America to Dominate the Middle East.Hardcover – 9 Aug. 2018
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Lords-Desert-Britains-Struggle-Dominate/dp/1471139794
Source for the Morris quote Logos but the link no longer works. (Also previously linked to)
This is Benny Morris still wrestling with the consequences of those old mistakes. He gets Ukraine wrong in passing, but that’s by the way. He knows his Israeli history as few others do.
https://youtu.be/8B64JSRKG_o?t=251
E.O.,
” We are the true victims…” Doesn’t that sound like the Second Murderer?
EO,
Rhodesia, where the settlers created a vibrant 20th century society and got tossed out by the leftists and Marxists. How did the new ‘government’ treat the people living there?
“mistakes made in the past. By us”
Feel free to keep the guilt trip to yourself. If memory serves the Suez Crisis can be characterized as “How dare Egypt take control of their own country!” Followed by Eisenhower telling the UK he would drive the pound to zero if they didn’t leave Egypt after the former seized control of that asset from the prior owners, who certainly weren’t doing anything benevolent to the Egyptians with the proceeds. Of course Eisenhower actually won a war (and fought in more than one beforehand), unlike most Western leaders today. Take a look at all of NATOs “defense” ministers and see who men would follow into combat.
No guilt, Fred. What great-grandfather got up to is his affair. Just as long as I don’t feel inclined to repeat the performance.
I should say there were many in England at the time who saw that our policy of settling Jews in Palestine was wrong and would lead to trouble, among them the apostle of imperialism, Rudyard Kipling. Kipling, who was a bit of a prophet when he wasn’t maundering on about Empire, understood that very well, as did the others who thought it was a damn fool idea. But at that time is was normal to move people around the Empire like livestock so to many the policy didn’t seem that much out of the way.
It also suited British domestic policy. Shan’t go into that here but at that time a new anti-Semitism was developing, in England and Austria in particular, that was pretty virulent. It suited the politicians of the time to divert the flow of Jewish immigrants to Palestine rather than to us. Not that many of them reached Palestine but it provided an excuse for blocking them from coming here. So the Balfour Declaration killed a lot of birds with one stone, they thought.
Other factors were the need to keep the route to India safe, the hope, believe it or not, that settling Europeans there would help introduce the natives of the region to modern ways, and the question of possible oil supplies to the Royal Navy in the Med. That last covered well by Barr in that study mentioned.
In addition, as if that lot isn’t enough to account for the policy, there was the need to bring America into the war and it was hoped that the policy would help out with that as well.
As for the other side of the equation Herzl’s dream was a false dream. It was based on the falsity of “A land without a people for a people without a land”. Herzl knew very well that wasn’t the case. That falsity runs through political Zionism like a fault through rock. Has done for the last century.
Jabotinsky saw the dilemma. Other Jews of the more liberal sort seem to have hoped it could be glossed over or talked away. Or just pushed into the background as they got on with the job of building their new society.
Fat chance. Judaism is not a faith that accommodates integration well. Therefore the Palestinians will destroy Israel as it is presently constituted or Israel will destroy the Palestinians,
“As it is presently constituted”. If you see change possible there then those stark outcomes could be avoided. Otherwise not. I don’t see much change possible if such as Netanyahu are chosen as the leaders of the country.
Back to great-grandaddy. It was British policy in Mandate Palestine that put both Israelis and Palestinians in that impossible position. Put a fox in a henhouse and who is responsible for the result? Not the fox. It’s his nature. He can act no other way. The man who put him in did the damage. So too when we put the Jews in Palestine.
When Morris states that the Israelis are the greater victims, that’s why.
No guilt trip, Fred. Just straight history.
Gentlemen,
If Iran chooses to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the United States no longer has the capability of breaking that blockade, as things stand. It would take martial law in the United States, a suspension of the Constitution, and an invasion of Iran that would go up to, say, latitude 34 N, deep into the Persian Central Plateau, to even make a beginning. The Gulf would still not be safe from thousand-mile range, accurate bombardment.
Everything just changed in the Middle East. Israel may be granted a little Kabuki hit to save face, but the reality is that Israel is going to be put on a choke chain.
It’s either that or world-wide economic depression.
Tidewater,
Didn’t Iran try something like that in the past and get a minor butt whooping for it? Though maybe drones and missiles have changed the complexion of that scenario somewhat. IMO, even with drones, the US Navy would have that situation under control rather quickly if it became something toward the existential end of the spectrum. Also IMO, we should stop playing patty cake and soon make an example of the Houtis, as a deterrent to Iran.
US Navy is a shadow of the former self. I read an analysis on one of the military sites (maybe Military Today) that looked at the Navy’s ammunition stocks. Navy has 71 destroyers and 13 cruisers equipped with AEGIS, but doesn’t have enough SM-2 missiles for all these ships (typical SM-2 missile load is 24-36 per ship). So ships often patrol with partially empty magazines. Situation is similar with Tomahawks, there are less than 2000 available, not enough for a sustained campaign against an enemy like Iran.
US has let their ammunition stocks dwindle in the last 30 years and it lacks the ability to quickly ramp up production. A lot of the “new” production is refurbs of old missile stocks. Russia fired off 3500 cruise missiles and 7000 Shaheds in the past year. That’s probably more than the number of all air defense missiles in US Navy inventory. It’s a dangerous situation that’s not being addressed as politicians are pushing US into multiple conflicts.
voislav: Here are several articles about the U.S. Navy’s problems:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/navy-cancels-ship-briefings-internal-report-00150879
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-militarys-great-achilles-heel-shipyard-crisis-210571
https://gcaptain.com/a-deep-dive-us-navy-shipbuilding-failure/
https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/revitalizing-us-navy-shipbuilding-problems-with-u-s-shipyards/68039
Meanwhile, various politicians want to send $60 billion to Ukraine.
(Isn’t it amazing how the left is so much more gung ho for this conflict than the right?)
In any case, so much for the U.S. national interest.
And one more;
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-us-navy-warships-delayed-photos-2024-4
Sorry for the multiple posting, but this really has some good info.
A look at TEN classes of Navy ships that are, mainly, way behind schedule.
Tidewater
Bhadrakumar has called this Israel’s Suez moment. We’ll see. If there is a choke chain I suspect it goes in the other direction. The Israeli leadership badly needs the Overton window in the US moving to gin up support for their war. Maybe someone like this guy will do it:
https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/terrorinfo/majid-dastjani-farahani
Tidewater,
Europe would really be SOL on getting oil. Maybe they should send their navies over there instead of making us do it for them.
I apologize. Truly, I am addressing: Ladies and Gentlemen!
A twitter post in which Zelensky explains that the Trypilska power plant was destroyed by Russia because Ukraine ran out of missiles to defend it:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1780161130263961756
We love you, Ukraine. But we love Israel and Taiwan more and there are not enough air defense missiles to go around.