RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 NOVEMBER 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

UKRAINE. Lots of bogus hysteria about how Russia is about to invade Ukraine – for example. Here’s my view – Russia Inc has no desire to pay for “Country 404” – the US/EU/NATO broke it, they own it. But, eventually, the provocations will get to be too much – it’s a cost-benefit analysis and I’m not privy to the data – then Russia will liberate those parts of Ukraine where Russians will be welcomed as liberators and leave the rest to its fate. When/if it happens, it will be fast, decisive and surprise everybody (like every Russian military operation since 2000). There is nothing the West can do (sanctions escalation – that’s a spavined horse) unless it wants to go nuclear in which case the USA will certainly be obliterated. Orlov and Saker. From the West, nonsense and more nonsense (complete with The Misquotation). How about this from the country with one fully-staffed infantry battalion? The safety of the world hangs on the patience of Putin and Xi and the hope that not all Western generals are future VP Sales of MIC rackets.

RUSSIA/CHINA. The two Defence Ministers have agreed to still closer ties. This relationship is much broader and deeper than a mere “alliance”: it’s Mackinder’s Heartland plus population plus production plus sea power. The end of the “Columbian Age”. Moscow and Beijing, learning from the failures of the USSR and the Imperium Americanum, won’t try and run the world: they know it can’t be done.

OPINION WORTH LISTENING TO. This guy is connected: NATO’s mistake is that it still thinks it’s dealing with the weakened Russia of the 1990s. Another mistake, I would add, is that NATO thinks it’s the (imagined) NATO of the 1990s; it isn’t: only a paper tiger then, it’s become a paper pussycat.

RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS. Levada poll (Googlish) shows Russians highly value social rights. Situation seems OK but read Levinson’s notes: he detects differences in the young. But another poll suggests that the young aren’t all that much different (despite, IMO, a heavy effort by the interviewers to elicit opposition sympathies).

KURSK. The former Northern Fleet commander says the Kursk was sunk after a collision with a NATO submarine. “No comment” says Peskov.

PLEISTOCENE PARK. “This complex will be a basis to implement one of the super tasks the World Mammoth Center is facing – the ambitious idea to revive mammoths by using biotechnologies“.

GAS TRANSIT. Spreading invasion rumours, Kiev wants another gas transit agreement with Russia.

NORD STREAM 2. More US sanctions and delays by Germany. OK, Russia loses some money but Europe will lose more (even the Greens have figured that out). “This is a game where Germany does not hold a winning hand“. As to money, Russia’s FOREX kitty is now USD620 billion and growing and China will buy anything Russia has.

THOSE PESKY RUSSIANS. They want to spread chaos in the USA and there’s a diesel shortage exacerbating the supply chain problem. So naturally Moscow would like to make this worse – or so we’ve been told over and over. So why is it selling the USA two million barrels of diesel? Another question your MSM outlets will neither ask nor answer.

WESTERN VALUES™. Natylie Baldwin explains why Russians are no longer interested in the West’s “values”. I wrote something similar. Apart from other reasons, they’re not impressed by the gap between promise and performance. Another possibility destroyed by arrogance and ignorance. See below.

WE MAKE THE RULES. “NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members“. Yeah but the famous Rules-Based International Order doesn’t mean we have to stick to the rules.

REFUGEE WARS. Lukashenka spoke to Merkel (I guess there’s no more pretending that she’s in charge). Coincidentally, as it were, Belavia cancelled migrant flights from UAE. The one time I was in the same room as Lukashenka, I didn’t think he was very smart. I was wrong: watch this interview with a “journalist” who thinks he’s a barrister. PS I think Lukashenka has had enough of smug Westerners.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Five corrections we won’t see from the MSM, instead Applebaum hits it out of the park – even when it’s false, it’s true.

MY WEIRDOMETER IS BROKEN. Not even in the USSR was there Ilyich and Koba; Boy Detectives.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN. More fighting. It’s reported that Putin will meet the two presidents on Friday. Russia has a mutual defence treaty with Armenia (which does not cover Karabakh).

GUNS. A US general says American hypersonic capabilities are “not as advanced” as China’s or Russia’s.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

About Patrick Armstrong

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14 Responses to RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 NOVEMBER 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

  1. d74 says:

    Thank you very much for your information which is always appreciated.

    ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

    Yes, “Russia has a mutual defence treaty with Armenia (which does not cover Karabakh)”.
    But, I believe that the fighting took place on the border between the two countries, outside Karabakh.
    In this case, Azerbaijan is playing with fire.

    Who -which country- can give Azeris support ? Turkey ? US deepstate ?
    Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu intervened quickly to put an end to this madness.

    The mini-aggressions targeting Russia are similar to what Hitler did to Central Europe in 1936-1939.
    There are irresponsible people and it is very worrying.

    • JohninMK says:

      The support for Azerbaijan comes, as you say, from Turkey but also importantly from Israel who regard the country as a useful back door to Iran as well as a key customer for their military exports. There are inevitably Israeli flags around on any celebrations there.

      As the Russians are gradually taking more interest, both Turkey and Israel need to resist poking the bear too hard as they are at risk of Syria related blowback.

      • d74 says:

        Yes, Izzies. I had forgotten about them.

        Do Izzies do anything, anything at all, without prior approval of the US government? Maybe even with its impulse, discreet of course. Maybe not the whole government, but its russophobic part.

  2. ISL says:

    Thanks, always, PA,

    Despite half the population, Russia matches the US in STEM graduates (~550k/yr), while China graduates 10 times as many (4.7M/yr).

    https://www.statista.com/chart/7913/the-countries-with-the-most-stem-graduates/

    suggest:
    “Mackinder’s Heartland plus population plus production plus sea power plus STEM”

  3. jim ticehurst says:

    Mr. Gorbachev..Tear Down this Wall…And The Cold War was over..An East German Former Communist..” Is The New Dealer /Broker For that Operation..Russia Can Back Off…save Billions in Wasted Money…Go Home…Drop Off The Radar..Do What They Do Best..R&D and Espionage..Even I Knew ..At The Moment..It was a Big Mistake..and The “Western Media.” Sold it..To All The Herrings..In The Red Sea…Im Sure Russia will go ask far into The Ukraine..as far as they want..Finish Up..Link Up..All Done Seaports..Syria..Iran..all Done…Nancy Pelosi Has the Votes…To Get It Done..I Suspect…

  4. Lytenburgh says:

    >”Russia will liberate those parts of Ukraine where Russians will be welcomed as liberators and leave the rest to its fate.”

    Then you will be wrong, Mr. Armstrong. Not for the first time. “Leaving to its fate” means NATO, and Russia will never agree to that.

    Russia won’t “annex” anything either and leave even a rump of the Ukraine to the West entirely. That’s simply not Russia’s m.o.

    First of all, Mr. Armstrong et al – this is not 18th c. anymore. Russia does not need to “annex” or “invade” anyone, when a simple “forcing to peace” will do. In this year and age Russia, in case of the Ukrainian suicide wish (i.e. a real attempt to military liquidate the Peoples Republic) can always respond with:

    A) Missile and airstrike attacks against the Ukrainian military infrastructure Israel-style. Well below the threshold.
    B) Russia, in face of the Ukrainian aggression, has to go to the counter-offensive which, naturally, will go well beyond the original contact line… for just one day. Then they will go back, without occupying new territory. In the Western tradition it’s been knowт as “une grande chevauchée”.
    С) Seeing as Minsk II is sabotaged not just by Kiev, but by Paris and Berlin, Russia then recognizes both people republics (after doing A and/or B) and gets invited by their legitimate authorities on the permanent basis. There won’t be “smurfs” of the UN peacekeeper variety in Donbass. Whoever is peddling this fantasy is either deranged or dishonest.

    But, speaking generally, your “prediction”/wish solves for Russia nothing strategically speaking, while making a large-scale NATO troops presence on Russia’s borders a distinct possibility. Well, maybe it’s been your plan (as a loyal subject of Her Majesty the Queen) all along, which furnishes your reputation as a false friend of Russia even further.

    OTOH, given that you are neither a regional specialist, nor an insider in the contemporary going ons in the Ukraine, there is a distinct possibility, that this is not even your own plan and you, once again, serve as mere re-translator of someone’s else ideas. In that case – stick to collating of the data, not to its analysis, as it is definitely not your forte.

    • English Outsider says:

      Lytenburgh – Apart from an excursion into the vexed question of whether Her Makesty bosses us all about, let alone bossing today’s host about, yours is an interesting comment. You reckon a Georgia type approach? Just enough to deter and possibly disable but no taking of territory? Not before time, one would think. given that civilian casualties still occur in the border area and Minsk II is as good as a dead letter. But …

      There’s plenty in the British press about how aggressive the Russians are being. How we have to firm up our defences against them. We’re stationing tanks in Germany to do our bit in that struggle.

      There’s some scepticism in England about that Russian peril. Some here think it’s not quite like that but we’re a minority. The tribal Conservatives are as stoutly anti-Russian as in the Cold War. As for Labour, the anti-interventionist Corbyn is out and Starmer, a Trilateral Commission member, in.

      There is, I’d guess, more scepticism on the continent, particularly in Germany. Some Germans think it’s a hoax and what’s really happening is that the US and the UK are trying to do a “let’s you and him fight”. There’s therefore some dislike in Germany of being led by the US and UK into an anti-Russian crusade but don’t forget the Greens, neocon inclined, are in the new coalition there.

      If the Russians carried out the strikes you suggest that scepticism would melt away. Such strikes would for most be clear proof that the Russians are the aggressor. The sceptics would fall into line and then also press for the stationing of powerful NATO forces in the Ukraine. The Russians wouldn’t bomb them.

      So the Russians would end up worse than they started. How would the Georgia approach have worked then?

      As for the Russians absorbing the Donetsk/Luhansk area in some way, is even that to be adopted except in the most extreme circumstances? The population mix isn’t the same as in the Crimea.

      I knew of people with relatives in Kharkiv at the time Strelkov’s forces had got that far. Far from being Hurrah Patriots or separatists they were sitting there grimly just hoping Strelkov’s forces would go away. There were many like them. Even in the Ukrainian areas not subject to Kyiv’s authority now there’s something of a split. Reduced because many have emigrated but no doubt plenty pro-Kyiv still there.

      It’s a real cats cradle of a problem and I don’t think it’s going to be solved by “surgical strikes” or whatever. Not unless the Ukrainians keep pushing it with their drones and artillery strikes. It’s difficult to stop even that without more claims of “Russian aggression”.

      So I think that in your consideration of military solutions you do not factor in the state of public opinion in Europe and the UK, let alone in the States. Our neocons would love just such positive Russian action in the Ukraine as you suggest. It’d prove all along they were right about the Russian threat and get public opinion solidly behind them to counter it.

      • Lytenburgh says:

        >There’s some scepticism in England about that Russian peril.

        What about Scotland and Wales? 😉

        >As for the Russians absorbing the Donetsk/Luhansk area in some way, is even that to be adopted except in the most extreme circumstances? The population mix isn’t the same as in the Crimea.

        You are strawmanning me. I said nothing about “absorbing” them, and even mentioned “no annexation”. Twice.

        Russia will recognize them as 2 independent states. Which would also set up a nice example for others (think – Transcarpathia) to follow.

        >”If the Russians carried out the strikes you suggest that scepticism would melt away.”

        What makes you an expert on what ze Germans in charge think or willing to do?

        In the end, I’d like to quote V.V.Putin, on what the Leningrad streets taught him – “If the fight is inevitable, then strike first and with all of your might”.

        Your strawmanning of my comment and pro-Ukie concern “elfing” is duly noted, E.O. Keep calm and carry on.

        • English Outsider says:

          Lytenburgh – the main thing is that the Russians don’t get suckered into over-reacting. But if they have to react, to react more effectively than your Georgia suggestion.

          I’ve said above it’s a cat’s cradle of a problem. If even a Russia expert like our host says ” it’s a cost-benefit analysis and I’m not privy to the data ” then don’t expect any useful observations from me as to what “react more effectively” would amount to.

          So I’m not going to speculate on what should or might happen. All that I’m saying is that your idea of “forcing the peace” by a strike “in one day” or thereabouts and then withdrawing wouldn’t work. I’ve explained why.

  5. JohninMK says:

    I wonder if a US ‘woke’ STEM graduate is of the same caliber as a Russian/Chinese traditional STEM graduate.

  6. aka says:

    When the Ukraine-Russia war happens, I think (if possible) the Russians will destroy the country known as Ukraine.
    They will take what they can control and destroy the rest (not carpet bombing but destroy economy as much as possible).

  7. Eliot says:

    Patrick,

    “ When/if it happens, it will be fast, decisive and surprise everybody (like every Russian military operation since 2000).”

    I think the Russians just think differently, which makes it hard for us to predict their behavior.

    The Russian invasion of Eastern Prussia at the beginning of WW1 is a good example.

    – Eliot

  8. Given they haven’t even cut off the oil, I would image anything beyond that it is far away.
    Consider all the shrieking, if they were to cut off the oil, say January. Then let them freeze in the dark for a few months, with the US just sending a few more guns and stuff. I doubt the Germans are going to give the Ukrainians any of their oil.
    There is a lot of high pitched noises on the surface, but does it signify anything, beyond those doing the shrieking not having anything better to do?

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