"Whites without a college degree — men and women — made up a third of the 2016 electorate. Trump won them by 39 percentage points, according to exit polls, far surpassing 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney's 25 percent margin. They were the foundation of his victories across the Rust Belt, including a blowout win in Ohio and stunning upsets in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In polling, these voters have expressed deep racial and cultural anxieties. In exit polls they were more likely than the country as a whole to say that illegal immigrants should be deported. But those polls also suggested economic concerns and hostility toward leaders in Washington were much more important factors driving them to Trump.
Half of these voters said the economy was the most important issue in their vote, compared to 14 percent for immigration. A majority said international trade takes away American jobs. Three-quarters said the economy is “not good” or “poor” and nearly 8 in 10 said their personal financial situation was the same or worse than it was four years ago. Two-thirds said they preferred Trump to handle the economy instead of Democrat Hillary Clinton, compared with less than half of the electorate overall." Washpost
———-
Tyler – My hat is 0ff to you! Chapeau!
I made a logical guess about the outcome but it was merely logical. I have long been an advocate of belief in the effect of the demonic or lyrical, if you prefer, elements in the human soul. Nietzsche has been among my guides to humanity. I have always opposed the number cruncher approach to analysis. I missed this one by not following my instincts.
I have thought since 2012 that there was a large White vote missing in that election. That was correct. IMO it is impossible to overestimate the resentment of the masses of White people toward the Borgist establishment who scorn them and their values so much. I wonder how long it will take for the Democrats to start beating the multi-culti changing demography drum again.
First rule here today – NO NAME CALLING!
Trump's Agenda:
- Destroy Obama's array of Executive Orders
- Appoint a SCOTUS Justice
- Make nice with Russia and China
- Build a more impenetrable system of border barriers
- Back away from regime change in Syria
- Re-negotiate all trade deals.
- Remove barriers to energy production
- Start rounding up illegals who are actual felons.
- Cause members of the NATO alliance (and other alliances) to meet their commitments for defense expenditures.
Trump's visible cabinet choices:
Gingrich at State
Flynn at Defense
Giuliani as AG
pl
Colonel
Good morning,
I wonder if former Lt Gen Flynn will ensure that it is bye-bye as far as James Clapper is concerned?
Gingrich at State.
I don’t know whether to be curious or TERRIFIED.
Gingrich is apparently a very smart guy but he’s also like a keg of dynamite looking for a fuse.
Flynn?
Do you know Flynn?
Impression?
TV
I do not know Flynn. Gingrich is very smart and knowledgeable. I think he would do well at State. pl
The Cubs win the World Series.
The Deplorables win the White House.
The stock market quakes with uncertainty.
And somewhere, “It’s whole new world” is playing in the background.
Hot damn!
i kept the faith
now its up to Trump to prove whether or no he can become the Great Man, and tell history what time it is.
“The Dictator of the Proletariat”
https://dissentingsociologist.wordpress.com/2016/07/22/the-dictator-of-the-proletariat/
As we say here in the Northwest:
Shit Howdy.
As an aside, today is the 18th of Brumaire
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_of_18_Brumaire
Sir,
All along the number crunching – real number crunching not the phony made for teevee junk polls, Nate Silver black box voodoo statistics, etc – favored Trump (number crunching is my way). Tyler’s channeling the zeitgeist validated the numbers and vice versa.
You had me worried with your pessimism b/c I thought maybe you had access to some covert knowledge. Other than that, a solid Trump victory was always going to happen.
I dunno…..”It’s a Whole New World” might not be it exactly.
I am going with “Desolation Row”
As an aside…..the Raiders are in first place. Another data point in a hearty, albiet qualified, agreement.
Hot Damn
sir,
I’m beginning wonder whether msm also “improved” the HRC winning chances during those months worth predictions and surveys.
You know, at some point, propagandists start believing their own sh*t and creates a sort of group think that makes it difficult to see the truth/
All
Seems to me that a Special Prosecutor or two is an inevitable feature of this future. pl
Will be fun to watch the implosion of HRCs inner circle now that they really have something to fear. It was amazing to watch the democrats use the same losing strategy (cheat, lie, and deny) for 18 months all the way up to the end.
Is Tyler still with us, or was he assumpted to Heaven after Trump’s victory last night?
What is the expert opinion at WaPo worth?
Tyler,
Congratulations. Let me know where to send your winnings.
I will be equally curious to see how far the disentigration of the Democratic party will go, if at all.
The universe is working on getting them to choke on an industrial size chunk of hubris. Their day has passed. The duplicity and plutocrat nature, that of the Clintons, the Wasserman-Schultz crowd, the Chuck Schumer crowd, could not have more perfectly exposed. They are passé but like a dinosaur with a tiny brain, they have expired but most likely will not get the message for some time.
Staying tuned to see if Bernie and Bill Weld can get together over the next several years.
Col.,
From the WAPO article it does not seem the phd crowd understands that immigration has had a downward impact on wages and may as big a reason for the decline of median wages as de-industrialization. They are fixated on race. Do they not understand that those lower wages are also paid to blacks, hispanics and asians?
On the brighter side, President Trump may really make the economy roar again into the Golden Age boom since he’s a real estate developer
&
promised much more infrastructure spending (he has also said on video interviews before he ran for president that he believes the gov should pay for all universal healthcare, pro-social security, & pro-choice)
since
Trump famously said on TV that the gov can never default since the gov truly can always print it money needs to infrastructure, military, healthcare, etc
–just like it did during WW2 & FDR
(and no, it doesn’t cause inflation as long as production increases –ie, double supply of apples or cars, the prices of apples & cars stays relatively the same even as the money supply double)
–it is what Singapore & CHina does using their gov banks to fund their massive multi-trillion dollar instructure jobs programs building bullet trains, super highways, cities, airports, super dams, etc
from Mike Nornan, who was economist for Thomas James, S & P, & analyst on FoxBusiness, Bloomberg, CNBC -he is a huge supporter of Donald Trump & he writes a very accurate economics site at http://MikeNormanEconomics.blogspot.com & his column at TheStreet below:
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/05/11/2016/donald-trump-embraces-mmt-and-exposes-truth
“Donald Trump Embraces MMT and Exposes the Truth
“Donald Trump has gone full MMT. Well, maybe not full MMT, but a long way toward getting to full MMT. I have been doing Modern Money Theory for 14 years, telling people about it and teaching it, but I am not Donald Trump.
In one comment he has done more to advance the discussion and expose the truth than what any of us have done in over a decade.
But that doesn’t diminish our efforts. I’m glad to have him on board.
What did Trump say? He said the U.S. can never become insolvent or go bankrupt or default because we print our own currency. Stated another way, the U.S., in fact, really has no debt.
This means the government is not dependent on tax revenue or borrowing to take on the spending and investment it needs to make.
The government spends in dollars and those dollars flow to people and firms who then swap them for Treasuries so they can earn a little interest.
When it comes time to “pay those people back” the government simply takes the Treasuries back and issues dollars to the holders once again.
There is never an inability to do this.
The only time we have anything close to a problem such as default is when we come up against the debt ceiling and the political shenanigans associated with that.
The debt ceiling is a stupid, artificial and self-imposed constraint that dates back to the gold standard.
The U.S. is no longer on the gold standard and hasn’t been for 83 years.
Moreover, we have been off the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates for 45 years.
You would think by now people would know this, but they seemingly don’t. Hopefully, the fact that Donald Trump stated the obvious will sink in for some.
Still, I know what there will be those who will never accept this. They will still go on believing that our money comes from out of the ground, which is ridiculous. They’ll say that printing money causes inflation.
Well, I got news for you, it doesn’t. Take a look at the chart below.
If this doesn’t clear up this myth, I don’t know what will. You might as well believe in alien abductions and the Loch Ness monster. (Oh yes, those are real, too. I forgot.)
From the chart, above, you can see that the government has “printed” nearly $20 trillion and inflation went down. Not up, down.
You simply can’t keep saying, well, it’s going to happen someday. It won’t.
In a modern, competitive economy there is zero chance of inflation happening as a result of government spending.
Moreover, the fact that the spending induces the private sector to produce more –
-roads, schools, health care, energy, transportation, basic science and research, etc.
–means that prices tend to go down, not up, because we get more supply of those things.
The only inflationary threat we would face is if we ran out of the physical resources and labor to produce the things that the spending was employed to purchase.
I’m not saying that can’t happen, but at the moment that is not even something close to a reality.
Furthermore, with the global economy so interlinked, there are plenty of resources and labor that can be tapped in other parts of the world pretty easily.
Trump is taking a lot of heat for his comments. I know how he must feel. I have taken heat over the years for stating the same.
But the people giving the heat have been wrong. Dead wrong.
They have been wrong on inflation, on interest rates, on the economy, on the markets, on employment, on the U.S. credit downgrade and its consequences.
Basically, they have been wrong on everything. On the other hand, MMT has been right about everything.
Trump exposed the lie that the government must “save money.”
You don’t need to save what you can create without limit.
Trump speaks from a purely MMT viewpoint.
Maybe he’s reading my columns or my blog or, maybe it’s just common sense, which, when you think about it, is what it should be for most people, but it’s not.
Whatever it is, I am glad he’s on our side. Go Donald!”
==
Bank operations CEO/MBA Warren Mosler goes into more detail here http://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/innocent-frauds/
The big loser is the main stream media. Of course, they will blame their problems on the “deplorables” who lied and didn’t tell them they were voting for Trump. The New York Times said yesterday morning that Clinton had an 85% chance of winning but by late evening they had Trump with an 87% chance of winning. It’s not funny.
Pat Lang,
Kudos to Tyler. He nailed it with state of the art analytics which seemed to amount to talking to people and counting yard signs. On the other hand, the pollsters, pundits, and campaign professionals have been desperately scraping egg from their faces last night and this morning.
I have a couple of observations: Giuliani might have been a good man for A.G. 8 or so years ago but, judging (only) from his TV appearances, his best days are behind him and, moving to put Mrs. Clinton in prison will ignite a firestorm in the country. I guess that last was a prediction, not an observation.
Cheers,
WPFIII
WPFIII
A sane dialog with Russia is a great outcome from this. However, Trump has historically beat up on China for having the temerity of lower labor prices, as well as “currency manipulation” [reality is they’ve intervened to PROP IT UP, not push it down]. Decent chance Trump will start a trade war with China.
Trump has also said historically that people don’t respect America because our military is too weak (?!???). Blessedly, he made no mention of that last night, correctly putting emphasis on internal infrastructure spending [it could be he’s much smarter than he looks]. But I could see more massive spending on the military-industrial complex, along with posturing leading to a conflict against China.
Lastly Trump has promised to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and therefore appears to be a full-bore Zionist. Shudder.
To completely understand what a wonderful thing happened last night, I think everyone in world specially the Borg should watch this clip of Michael Moore
“Trump’s election will be the biggest “F—ck You” in human history – Michael Moore”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lMp_363B2c
Although the outcome is uncertain, our democracy at work is beautiful. My faith in the electorate’s best intentions is restored.
Sir,
Thank you. All the same I felt relief when Florida turned and set off the whole shebang.
As far as Cabinet picks go, I think another ultimate middle finger would be (Ron) Paul or Buchanan at State, or the former at Treasury. I wonder what capacity Sessions will be used?
I think Cruz might get his SCOTUS nod after Ginsberg passes, but we’ll see.
William Fitzgerald
You are unhappy with the effectiveness of Giuliani in confronting people like Jake Tapper (the man who spun on a dime last night). In response to Giuliani saying things you don’t like you say he is senile. Are you proud of that? IMO a Special Prosecutor for the Clinton Foundation’s Play for Pay is inevitable. How about Patrick Fitzgerald from Chicago. pl
What was the turnout? I can’t find it. Opinionators insist on reading a mass FU as The Lower Orders’ yearning for a Man on Horseback.
WPFIII,
As I was fond of saying, “should I believe the polls or my lying eyes”. Thank you.
Woke up this morning and the world has changed……….it can be a beautiful thing….
Tyler
I do know Gingrich and think he would do fine at State in spite of the efforts of the Dems to turn him into a cartoon figure. pl
Can you schedule this piece to be republished a year from now so we can see how well we did on predictions and how well Trump accomplished his goals.
Yes, it has been painful to watch the decline of Rudy-the-Rock Guliani; is that what fame does to people? Or is it just the Republican Party?
Col,
What is the likely impact on foreign relations when those countries that are major parts of “pay for play” become known to the public as a result of a Special Prosecutor’s investigation?
Tyler,
Congrats!
Ishmael Zechariah
P.s: I wonder how the establishment will try to co-opt Trump. Seems like the “our polls” were wrong meme is part of the starting whitewash torrent.
Sky-Walker was talking on multiple occasions and at length and in all seriousness about the Electromagnetic Pulse attacks by Iran on the United States.
Had someone paid him to do that or was that his own conclusions; based on meticulous investigation of Iran’s technical capabilities and political culture and institutions?
Sir,
I don’t disagree with the choice at all, was just thinking out loud about the collective Borg seizure it would cause. I do hope those two men play a role in a Trump Administration, especially Buchanan on FP.
Dear Colonel,
Scott Adams has called it based on what he termed persuasion, as well as the need to interpret the news reporting as confirmation bias. The Borg clearly believed that its control of traditional media and the polls, whose steady loss of viewership will IMO begin hemorrhaging, allowed them to “frame” the campaign away from issues.
Trump connected directly to the voters through rally’s and social media, and if he plans to continue to oppose the Borg I expect we will see him continue to mobilize outside the main media corridors. He used the term movement in his victory speech (using the language of Bernie)
Trump also did well compared to Romney among minorities.
I thankfully note that SST is part of the alternative media.
Tyler: hat tip from this hopeful Bernie Bro.
Yes, Tyler was right.
Tyler –
Your smoked salmon awaits. I can fedex it now, Colonel Lang has my email address. Or bring it with me to the desert sometime after Christmas? Your call.
Colonel –
What is your prediction on Trump’s pre-election promise to legalize torture? Will he follow through, and if so will McCain and Dems block it in the Senate? Also what will Trump do regarding American support to Kurds in both Iraq and Syria?
Tyler has kept up my hopes that we might really see change in this election.
My work colleagues are in a total state of shock as they can’t imagine how this could have happened – which shows how disconnected they have been from reality. And the reality I see is that we are more likely to be able to effectively address the problems we work on now that the democratic “deep state” total lock in my work area has disintegrated.
The best thing I have read about the election this morning is the following from a very lefty blog:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/voters-repudiate-clinton.html
A very interesting point here – given the world that Yves Smith lives (Manhattan) and travels in is her observation that a large fraction of people she has been encountering during the election campaign have been Trump supporters..
Degringolade,
Today is the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Funny fact: some 8% of Democrats voted for Trump, some 6% of Republicans for Clinton – the penalty of shunning Sanders and moving to the right.
I can’t hide a deep feeling of Schadenfreude today. Especially over the media and “experts”. I predicted that the vote would be “not Hillary”. The weakest candidate I could ever think of. Many, many voter stayed away because she was no alternative to Trump. Worse – more corrupt and more under Zionist and foreign influence. A warmonger if there ever was one. The military was solidly pro-Trump. They had had enough of such crap.
Economically he will likely be bad for his voters. But Clinton (Goldman Sachs) would not have been any better.
We all have no idea what Trump will bring. But WWIII against Russia and China is off the table for now and Syria is probably safe.
I’ll be happy with that for now.
GCP,
Ask the good Colonel for my email. You can paypal me through it.
Col. Lang, SST;
The first response of the elites:
“On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President—a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit—and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.”
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-american-tragedy-donald-trump
They do not get it-and never will.
Ishmael Zechariah
IZ,
Fox was absolutely savaging Nate Silver last night. It seems there’s a journo civil war where some of the journos are absolutely furious their co-workers made them look like fools.
ISL,
Thank you. I’m still in shock myself.
One thing about the man is that if something works he uses it. This, obviously, worked. I don’t see him leaving his populism behind.
Mike,
I gratefully accept. I’ve family flying in from NZ otherwise I’d save you the expense of Fed Exing it.
I think torture is still going on, so nothing to change there. I think he’s going to sit down with Russia and figure out what’s the best way forward for the region.
mike allen
Yes, of course. (irony) He will seek to enact into law every off the cuff remark he ever made and that the Ft. Brooklyn/MSM machine made into memes. This was in line with MSM “fact checking” of his opinions and acceptance of her policy positions as Gospel. pl
@ Tyler
Prospective cabinet members
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/trump-cabinet-choice-secretary-state/
I think Chris Christie as AG is more likely.
IZ,
For us Deploreables, I take comfort from the adage “Those that refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.
Buchanan makes sense, in my opinion.
So would Ambassador Chas Freeman.
I think it’s an amusing bit of trivia to note that our President-Elect is in the WWE(what was the WWF) Hall of Fame.
I wonder if Obama is regretting mocking Trump at the Correspondent’s Dinner, which some said have set this entire thing off.
Matthew,
I woke up this morning and you would have thought I won the damn thing the way my phone and social media have been blowing up.
Colonel,
I believe you have my email to know where to send it if you would be so kind.
Exclusive picture of me from last night:
http://i33.tinypic.com/2rcprpw.jpg
I thought that Trump was also the candidate of the Peace Party – the party that cannot come out from the proverbial closet; since – as you are well aware of it – we have been living in the shadow of Munich since 1939.
that’s hilarious. pure camp.
Degringolade,
The Raiders are my team as well.
What a year its been.
Beaver,
Personally I’m curious if Sessions is going to DHS. That choice will tell me a lot.
Tyler, Colonel, All,
There is word floating that the globalist JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have plans to crash the economy and have it blamed on President Trump once he is in office. If this is true, then the entities of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs guru types need to understand in cold terms that it’s NOT NICE TO FRIG our U.S. economy and put Mom and Pop America in jeopardy and pain. And there is no where on God’s green earth they can hide from our American wrath, they will have become on the same level as ISIS/AL=QAEDA/BIN=LADEN, an enemy whom Americans will destroy in a very cold and vicious manner.
Nate Silver had Trump at about 30% chance of winning. In terms of statistics I would call that toss up.
my above comment “that’s camp” applies to New Yorker rhetoric. Forgot to quote it, I think.
I’m asking one and all to join me and to start saying at least a couple of prayers daily for our new President Trump, to protect and guide him through the rough challenges he faces on our behalf.
I will enjoy the coming bloodbath in the Clinton camp as they turn on each other. The night of the long knives comes to mind but that would not be accurate. That was a purge by the powerful (Hitler) of his uncontrollable allies. It was reported that many of them shouted, “Heil Hitler!” as they were shot. The irony being that he ordered their execution.
The media is so full of hubris it will never acknowledge the damage this election has done to what little credibility it had remaining. The Clinton Foundation will be history. They no longer have power to sell. Self preservation will be the rule, and many will be shopping tell all memoirs to publishers.
This election will reverberate for years. Camilia Paglia said: “if Trump wins it will be an amazing moment of change because it would destroy the power structure of the Republican party, the power structure of the Democratic party and destroy the power of the media. It would be an incredible release of energy… at a moment of international tension and crisis.”
Tyler, You kinda did win. No one here saw it happening but you, and you nailed it, congratulations man.
So whats next- what do you see the first 6 months of the new administration looking like?
WF; Guiliani might be a good temporary appointment to draw the “fire” attendant to a Clinton prosecution. Then he could gracefully retire, like Cincinnatus, and clear the decks for a longer term appointee.
I think Obama will issue pre-emptive pardons, at least for the private email server, as Ford did for Nixon. Framing a pre-emptive pardon for the possible crimes at the Clinton Foundation is harder.
There was a Cold Drizzle in Fort Worth that fateful morning as Kennedy prepared for his “Parking Lot Speech”. If the drizzle had continued, and thus the protective bubble on his car had not been removed, the history of the coup would have been altered. Or the Lone Gunman would have had to race to the Trade Mart.
As I recall, 1963 was a leap year and Nov 22 was the final day of Brumaire.
I hope so. Gingrich, as the Speaker of the House, for all the cartoon demonization by the popular press, struck me as a level headed person who is not as given to ideological blindspot as the decade of GOP clowns who followed him. There is no politician that I’d trust to do the right thing, when push comes to shove, than Gingrich.
All,
We’re free of the Clinton Cabal
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E6s1xk7jL1A
Col. Lang,
I’ve never liked Gingrich but perhaps he’s had a Come to Jesus moment. I saw him in the Netflix movie 13th talking about how wrong it was to criminalize Black males
I kept bringing this up, but the polls were actually more right than not. It was the human element in interpreting the polls that insisted on seeing things the way they wanted to. As things stand, HRC won popular votes, but as I kept pointing out, Trump can spot HRC 2% in popular vote lead and still win EV victory, as long as he has small majorities across the Midwest–and this was all in the polling data. And Trump did pull it off. Also, one social science theory that defied the data got borne out by the reality: that the more “political” voters stand by their party when push comes to shove. The working class whites and minority voters effectively canceled themselves out. Trump essentially got an even share of the college educated white voters (exit polls indicate a slight majority), and it was they who tipped the scale in the grand scheme of things, exactly as predicted, ironically, by social science theories.
The deduction is sound but as an alternate role for himI am sensing from some informed persons that Gingrich is intended more to guide legislation through Congress. I am not sure that chief of staff is the best post for that, but maybe it Gingrich could make it work. He was the VP Trump wanted to pick “in his heart.”
I am so effing sick of rags like WaPo denigrating the voters like myself who live in Iowa as racist, sexist, xenophobic, stupid, uneducated, etc., etc.
My blue collar, democratic county of 45,000 which is 97% white, voted heavily for Obama in 2008, voted heavily for Obama in 2012, and voted heavily for Sanders in the recent caucuses. Sexism? Our state senator and rep have been democratic women for years and won handily last night.
Last night, my county voted heavily for Trump–the first time a repub has carried the county since the 1980s.
Uneducated? While the local public high school is not Friends Sidwell, it has an ACT median score of 23 which is higher than any national average, and sends kids to college at a higher than average national rate.
If the Borg’s narrative of this election is to scream racism and sexism rather than to address the economic problems of places like mine, they are absolutely hopeless.
Btw–I voted Jill Stein.
Colonel
What will those guys do next?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvttnT_W8AA7Xr_.jpg
Will they do the same thing as they did with President Obama back in January 2009: invite DJ Trump to Chevy Chase Village at George Will’s house to break bread and to lay the law of the land
I believe that Flynn is meant for National Security adviser rather than SecDef, for which I think Trump will pick someone who is more a Lee Iacocca, Robert McNamara type — to squeeze better deals out of the “munitions lobby.” I think will look at the economies that are lost when for political reasons a tactical fighter plane needs to be made in 48 states. Conversely, I bet he will learn quickly that the best way to get Congressional support for The Wall is to subcontract its construction to companies in 48 states.
Nah, Trump’ll let her go just as Obama let the Bushists go and so on. The rule in politics is there but for the grace of God and the next president/prime minister/whatever go I. On the other hand, if she is stupid/arrogant/dumb enough to become a candidate in 2020, then there may very well be a Special Prosecutor or two. But by then the Clintonista holdouts in the DNC should be gone so she wouldn’t stand a chance.
Trump wasn’t the only unexpected (by most) winner last night. Richmond elected Levar Stoney as their new mayor. Morrissey, the favorite according to all the polls, was a distant third in a three way race. My son told me the turning point was the endorsement of Stoney by former Councilman Jon Baliles on Saturday.
My son also reminded his coworkers that he had a dental appointment this morning by emailing them that he was going to make his teeth great again. He was not looking forward to the whining of some of the “creatives” at the office this morning. Neither of us like Trump, but we’re glad to see the neocons take a massive hit. All this destruction makes space for Bernie’s Our Revolution. He’s grooming a younger crowd to take his place.
I heard that Trump wants a massive investment in our infrastructure. How very Obamaesque. It was a good idea eight years ago and it’s even a better idea today. It’s needed badly and i wish Trump luck in this endeavor. With possible tariff wars looming, this nationwide construction effort could ease the pain and set the stage for a stronger home-based economy to develop. And a real estate guy is probably a good choice to rebuild our infrastructure. I just hope he doesn’t turn it all over to private ownership. I’ve seen what that does with our roads. The tolls are astronomical.
All,
In the wake of the ‘Brexit’vote, one of the architects of the ‘Remain’ campaign, Lord Mandelson, published a post-mortem in the ‘Financial Times’, entitled ‘How the struggle for Europe was lost.’
Unfortunately, it is behind a subscription wall, which is a shame, as it may perhaps provide some light on why the polls were misleading alike in relation to ‘Brexit’ and Trump’s prospects against Hillary.
(The link is https://www.ft.com/content/98619e5c-3f70-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0 .)
The focus chosen for the ‘Remain’ campaign, Mandelson explained, reflected the fact that ‘Our pollsters assured us that economic concerns trumped those about immigration.’
It seemed to me that anyone with a modicum of ‘horse sense’ should have realised that the ‘open door’ immigration policy championed by Mandelson and his ‘New Labour’ colleagues had caused massive resentment and alarm, and become the most important source of the momentum behind ‘Brexit’.
And further, it seemed to me that it ought to have been obvious that these were not matters about which voters would necessarily be candid with pollsters.
What is most interesting about the piece, however, is the tone in which Mandelson discusses both polling and campaign strategy.
It might be that of a colonial administrator in a galactic empire, send to rule over a planet inhabited by members of an alien and extremely primitive species, whose emotional reactions are little short of incomprehensible to the ruling powers.
The underlying condescension and contempt which came off the ‘Remain’ campaign in waves, also, I think, contributed greatly to the momentum behind ‘Brexit’.
GCP,
Man of your word. I appreciate that.
Col
When it comes to voting, people usually vote from their heart not their head, specially the 33 percent undecided.
This is what happened last night.
All
For the first time in decades I voted for a candidate from the duopoly, albeit an outsider, and he won! An unusual feeling as I have always been in the minority.
Trump and the Republicans who now have the majority in Congress have no excuse now. They have to figure out how to employ Les Deplorables and bring back some dignity to the forgotten. They need to reform our economic system away from financialization that has funneled trillions to Wall St. And they need to dial back our regime change and military interventions around the world.
We can be certain the Borg will be all over Trump to keep their gravy train going. We’ll know soon enough who are the influence peddlers that will be running the show as the details of the transition team become public.
Muzaffar Ali
I knew that. This is why I am disappointed in myself. pl
What’s for sure. Ryan/McConnell will get Trump’s signature on a reconciliation bill that does include BIG new upper-end tax cuts and Pentagon spending and doesn’t include expanded Medicaid coverage. What Trump asks for in return (the Wall? Infrastructure spending?) is anybody’s guess.
The mid term elections should be interesting.
How about the 8 year rule? Only violated once in my life with Reagan Reagan Bush? Maybe that was 90% of try his? Just sayin’
In many ways, Trump and Obama are similar candidates, politically speaking: they have both promised change and have been carried to victory on hopes of many, while defeating the embodiment of the status quo in the same person–HRC. Let us hope that Trump can succeed where Obama failed.
David
IMO, Trump’s victory last night in the traditionally Democrat Rust Belt states point to a much more economic rationale as well as the deep corruption and self-dealing in DC. Trump’s closing ad nailed it.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152747601271/trump-the-closer
David Habakkuk,
The “condescension and contempt” of the global elites for the “masses” was and is beyond belief. How about this:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/trumps-stunning-win
“ While he was speaking in Grand Rapids—while he was telling the crowd there that Hillary Clinton was “the most corrupt person” ever, ever, to seek the Presidency—Clinton was on her way from Philadelphia, where she had appeared with Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, Bruce Springsteen, Jon Bon Jovi, and Lady Gaga, to Raleigh, North Carolina, for a final rally to get out the vote there; Gaga and Bon Jovi came along. Clinton still lost North Carolina. For some observers, the phalanx around her was a sign of Trump’s pathetic isolation. But Trump, a marketer, above all, of Trump, turned it into proof of his self-sufficiency: he didn’t need Gaga for a crowd.”.
or this:
““It would be wrong to deny that she made certain mistakes which crippled her bid, particularly in the period between when she left the State Department and when she announced her candidacy, for example in taking large sums of money from financial institutions for paid speeches—which was legal, but she seemed oblivious to how it looked. These seem like misdemeanors compared with what Trump has been up to, but they did matter to voters, and Clinton ought to have recognized”.
Your designation “colonial administrator in a galactic empire” is accurate. I wonder if I am from the same planet with these folks.
Ishmael Zechariah
Beware of what you want, for you will surely get it.
Unfortunately, as with just about every election in the past 20 years, the rest of the country gets it too. While few people ever loved the establlshment borgist whatever you want to call it, remember who well it worked out last time we elected a “man of the people everyone wants to sit down over a rack of bud”? Despite his family’s animosity to our new president, GWB is probably secretly happy – in a year or so he has a high probability of no longer being the single worst president of the modern age.
– Pitch
I was talking about this yesterday with a friend, and now, this seems to be a real question: will Obama pardon HRC? What will that look like? It is not obvious that HRC actually needs a pardon–but I suspect that she is as guilty as Richard Nixon was in abusing power and office, in that they may be semilegal or legal, but could be subject to a lot of political turmoil if they are subject to investigation. Personally, I think Obama should pardon Clinton, like Ford did to Nixon, to spare the nation the trouble. But that will make the Democrats look even shadier and doom them for a few election cycles at least.
The national debt lie is the crime that both Reps and Dems have perpetrated on the American people for decades. While the figurative printing press going crazy is indeed problematic, US hasn’t had a debt problem since, well, the Founding. If Trump can actually deliver on serious economic reforms, that will be worth everything. That the Republicans in Congress practically owe him everything (e.g. no way that they could have retained the Senate without his coattails) should mean that they should be more pliant.
Let’s hope that he really meant his economic ideas when he said them.
Good day Ishmael Zechariah,
I will leave others to comment on the Trump domestic agenda , but I am curious from your perspective how is Trump viewed ? I have heard reports that Erdogan will not allow the Trump administration to continue to use Incirlik – is that what you are hearing ? Additionally there has been some noise recently in our MSM that the “Coalition ” is starting an operation to liberate Raqqa . Indeed it looks like the General Dunford was in Turkey last week to discuss the operation to take Raqqa . Is this a real effort in your opinion to take down Raqqa – and if it is being spear headed by the Pesh Merga what will Turkey’s reaction be to the campaign to retake Raqqa ? I think its been dubbed Operation Angry Euphartes . Finally I am praying President Trump will begin immediayely cleaning out the stables of all the neo con horse sh–t that has infested the US institutions that make bad decisions like invading Iraq to begin with …
Tyler, I knew if we kept at it we’d find some area of agreement–the Raiders are my team too!
And congratulations on your early and correct call on Trump’s victory.
Tyler
I wish to echo ISL’s congratulations to the Trump coalition – well done .
b
Amen..
It’s done now, irrespective of anyone opinion what’s the point of weaseling around?
Will Trump tear up the nuclear deal with Iran?
Will Trump walk out of the Paris Accord on climate?
Thanks!
I do wonder if the Borg will become a bit introspective now, but I doubt it.
I’d like to congratulate all the members of this board from US on electing their new and future president.
Also, I’d like to congratulate Mr. Tyler for defending on this board with his heart, soul and mind the notion that Donald Trump will manage to pull it through. As someone watching the elections outside the USA, it could be felt that the polls are partisan and do not reflect the real situation, but to be sure beyond reasonable doubt that Trump would prevail over HRC combined with MSM, Wall street and the Borg, needed much more than just very good analytical skills.
Trump, not Obama, should pardon her.
Hey Tyler,
Here you go….
First, an applicable song played by the great Cuban jazz trumpeter Arturo Sandoval, whom Dizzy Gillespie helped to defect to the U.S. when they were playing together on a tour in Europe–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISMyBvFOxJc
http://www.firstamendmentcenter.org/arturo-sandoval-2
And this familiar one (with Maynard Ferguson), but perhaps from before your time–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-DKHMTV3NQ
How about Martin Dempsey for Defense Sec ?
God help us now! 😀
Newt originally started out correctly worrying about the theoretical possibility of a disabling EMP from an unspecified “red force” enemy.
In real life, Iran would never EMP America, any more than you would walk up to Arnold and slap him in the face. A’jab: “US has thousands, Israel has hundreds of nukes. What in the world would we do with a nuke were we to build one? Polish it??” Also note in the real world Iran has no long-range ICBMs, absolutely no nuclear warheads, and foreswears the use of nukes on strategic, tactical, and religious grounds: http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2012/10/the-goldberg-predilections-ignoring.html
In the Zionist world, Iran has been the bogeyman du jour for decades, justifying all kinds of neocon military-industrial expenditures. Chief here is former CIA Dr. Peter Pry, also James Woolsey, who get picked up & amplified by Washington/Israeli papers:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/iran-endorses-nuclear-emp-attack-on-united-states/article/2561733
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/16643#.VQrStksbe0t
the first embroiders on the second, adding the beautiful CIA sentence “A knowledgable source said that the textbook discusses an EMP attack on America in 20 different places”, implying 20 places in America, but actually stating 20 places in the purported “translation” of the “handbook”. Done by the same folks bringing you the laptop of death.
Whether Gingrich believes/is with Pry and Woolsey is an open question.
Note there is in fact a far-right-wing military theocracy that has a silo farm of hardened hypersonic Jericho-III ICBMs that can hit all of America. It has also constructed finished H-bombs, crowd-killing neutron bombs, and EMP bombs. And prima facie has considered attack scenarios on America. One advanced bomb exploded over Washington would ruin your entire day. Gingrich is correct in taking into account potential EMP threats to America.
Tyler,
Kudos on calling it.
All,
While I am delighted to see the Borg get a good smack, I wish I could share the optimism about the change in foreign policy. Aren’t the people Trump has associated with basically a handful of neocons who did not walk away from him?
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/what-will-a-trump-foreign-policy-look-like/
Pry’s bio: “Dr. Peter Vincent Pry: The writer is Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, both congressional advisory boards, and served in the Congressional EMP Commission, the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the House Armed Services Committee, and the CIA. He is author of ‘Apocalypse Unknown: The Struggle To Protect America From An Electromagnetic Pulse Catastrophe'”. So he gets paid every time someone cries “EMP”. Iran does not have the capability to be able to deliver a serious EMP attack on America. Other nations do.
How will this go down with the Republicans who have screaming about NATIONAL DEBT, NATIONAL DEBT!!!, for generations? It’s in their DNA!
I would agree, but I think Trump seems to actually care about his promises. If true, Obama will have to create a series of blanket pardons, but they had better be extremely well worded as her crimes go back almost 50 years. He must also pardon himself if he does that for her, all her extended family, every employee of the Clinton Foundation, all her staffers, the Justice people who interfered, all the State people who interfered etc. It is going to be a lot of people which might explain why prison stocks have gained a huge amount on the market today. Curiously, Amazon is taking a hit presumably because Bezos used the Washington Post as a personal venue to attack Trump. I believe that Trump, not being an insider with insider liquid ethics, is very likely to hold grudges and act on them. I hope so and a lot of people feel the same way as I do. Personally, I would have liked to see them hang all the bankers and anyone associated with Clinton and Obama from light posts for all to see, but sadly we don’t live in that age anymore.
I also believe we dodged a huge bullet in the form of violent revolution or worse WWIII. w aren’t out of the woods yet though so he must buckle down and do the right things.
The Saker’s take on the election of Trump is very much worth a read for its Russo-centeic view.
http://thesaker.is/trump-elected-as-president-risks-and-opportunities/
He was on the podium and got special recognition, that must be for a reason.
When Christie is AG he can dismiss the charges on him for “Bridgegate”! Might be one of Obama’s last moves before the crowning on Trump.
They denigrate brits after Brexit referendum too.
My “uneducated” opinion/guess is that Trump will ride the current up tics in steady but slow wages and employment that has been going on. And, take credit for it.
It’s not done: there will be more polls in the future, and we should learn how to work with polls properly from the times when things went astray. I think that’s the mistake of obsessing too much with politics of the day: in the end, I deal with data–I don’t care about Clinton, I don’t care about Trump. I do care about how to make sense of public opinion data and deducing electoral outcomes. So to me, the only thing that matters is what we got right and what we got wrong, not whether Trumplinton beat Clump, or whoever the candidates are. The winner deserves our congratulations and goodwill as the president-elect is entitled to, but the real work for number crunchers, regardless of who won or lost, is only beginnin.
The emotional element is now regarded by many psychologists as essential to wise decision making.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotions_in_decision-making
Hopefully he’ll be too busy unsuccessfully trying to get the TPP et al ratified.
My thoughts.
Trump can’t cancel NATO that is the job of Congress. The same congress you had before the election.
Trump can’t cancel NAFTA that is the job of Congress. The ..
Trumps can’t change where US tax dollars are being flushed down the toilet. Again congress.
This does put a large dent in both the Clintons ability to take in money and the damage that the Clintons would do with that money. But is there a single thing in Trumps life time that says he doesn’t want to get paid? This is the guy that said he wouldn’t separate his business dealings from his job as president.
This does put an end to any potential back ground dealings in justice/FBI to help the Clintons. But Trump is about to nominate the people that can end the audit of his financial dealings that he refused to disclose and the many, many other issues Trump is being sued/investigated over. The special treatment for people in power won’t change just who gets the special treatment.
For Republicans this is actually a worst case scenario. They have done an absolutely amazing job of pinning every single ailment in America on Obama. But now they are going to have to own it fully. They will switch to blaming every issue on immigrants. But that will only go so far. Think back to all the great things Congress has accomplished over the last 8 years. Ya, I can’t think of any thing either. They haven’t been called out on any of their failures. That ends now with the Republicans in control of all 3 senior branches and about to have their majority on the Supreme Court renewed. It would have been far better if the Democrats had control of one branch then the Republicans could have continued to blame every thing on the Democrats.
The US isn’t awash in excess money. It is on it’s way back to trillion dollar a year deficits. If the mother of all tax breaks is coming, where does the money come from to pay for it or does the US start running 2 trillion dollar deficits?
How will foregn policy and influence change? Not an iota.
“Trump invites Netanyahu to White House in phone call”
http://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-invites-netanyahu-to-white-house-in-phone-call/
It’s a real close race between Slate and Salon in the HP Derby this morning:
http://weaponsman.com/?p=10861
Brilliant clip. Thanks!
1983 – “If in fact we are to follow the Chamberlain liberal Democratic line of withdrawal from the planet,” he explains, “we would truly have tyranny everywhere, and we in America could experience the joys of Soviet-style brutality and murdering of women and children.”
1985 Gingrich calls Reagan’s upcoming meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev ”the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with Chamberlain in 1938 at Munich.”
1985 He’s got the world in the palm of his hand: “I have an enormous personal ambition. I want to shift the entire planet…I just had breakfast with [administration officials Richard] Darman and [David] Stockman because I’m unavoidable. I represent real power.”
1994 “People like me are what stand between us and Auschwitz. I see evil all around me every day.”
2007 Gingrich makes the case for war in Iran and Syria “It makes no sense to have a Holocaust Museum in Washington and yet have no honest assessment of the threat of a 21st century Holocaust.”
2009 Gingrich makes the case for staying in Afghanistan “The last few weeks have been worse than Chamberlain. This is Baldwin in 1935, just willfully blind because he didn’t want to tell the British people the truth because it would offend them.”
2010 Gingrich argues that Muslims don’t have a right to build a mosque in Lower Manhattan: “They’re trying to make a case about supremacy…Nazis don’t have the right to put up a sign next to the Holocaust museum in Washington.”
2010 “We should have a federal law that says Sharia law cannot be recognized by any court in the United States.”
2011″I am convinced that if we do not decisively win the struggle over the nature of America, by the time [his grandchildren are] my age they will be in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”
please, newt is a faux intellectual who has spent his career making a cartoon out of himself.
All.
I think it very possible there will be Special Prosecutors appointed in the near future.
Pardons from Obama?, that’s questionable, he’s concerned about his legacy.
Because of the controversy his future aspirations would be a shambles.
And I don’t think Trump will just allow a pass. He’s not a part of the “old boy” DC political crowd.
Steve,
By now, those memes mean very little to anyone. People in the golden coastal paradises will continue to cry, cry, cry, only to assuage their grief over their crumbling superiority complex. You and your neighbors know the truth and that is enough. Rest assured you all did the right thing. If I’m correct Trump actually won a slight majority of college educated whites. The Borg can scream all it wants, but those paroxysms will fall on increasingly deaf ears. It should be apparent to all by now that mass media can makes its best attempts to shape reality and truth to its will, but… well, President Trump. ‘Nuff said.
So on what basis did people vote for him? There were certainly some completely off the wall statements that I’d assume even he would disavow and little enough detail around what he wouldn’t. I guess the rationale to give the finger to the establishment and throw a bomb into the system.
Given Trump’s compete – to all appearances – lack of knowledge about governing or the world in general, he’ll likely take a page out of our esteemed (irony) ex-president GWB and outsource all that messy decision making to others. So we should watch closely who he taps to do what to get the clue to our fates – sadly I don’t share the high opinions of Guiliani, Christi or Gingrich that some do. It’s a connection to the vote for Trump that he would nominally pick these people, I suppose…
I’m most curious to see what many of the proud deplorables will feel about his flexible approach to promises. His acceptance speech was surprisingly polite and appropriate – no mention of “lock her up, lock her up”. So if the wall isn’t built, if Obama and HIllary aren’t prosecuted, if whoops we do get deeper into the ME, and the jobs don’t come flooding back to factories and coal mines across the nation – I’m not sure all his supporters are going to get the irony.
It appears that Sheldon Adelson may have won his bet.
Israeli sources crowing that Trump invited Bibi to the WH “at the first opportunity” and that they “discussed regional issues”.
According to this Trump insider, Trump will follow the Likud dictats:
http://www.jpost.com/Us-Election-Results/Donald-Trump/Trump-adviser-to-Post-President-elect-will-be-Israels-best-friend-ever-472115
Will a GOP-controlled Legislative branch be likely to oppose the moves outlined in the above? Damned unlikely.
FTR…I voted Gary Johnson
What I most dislike about Trump is that he is a conman and bullshit artist to his very marrow. I was never too concerned about the things he said that I found abhorrent because I didn’t believe him. I also never got too excited about those things he said that I agreed with because I didn’t believe him. After all the smoke dissipates and the mirrors are removed, we may end up with SSDD. This article in The Intercept points in that direction, “Donald Trump Recruits Corporate Lobbyists to Select His Future Administration.”
https://theintercept.com/2016/11/08/trump-transition-lobbyists/
However, if he at least manages to cut off the vile monster Clinton and the Nuland cabal created in Kiev, I’d gladly salute the magnificent bastard.
Viva Deplorables!
While this was a tough fight with the entire media, political establishment and Wall St as well as the billionaire class throwing the punches at Trump, the Deplorables turned out and made victory happen. This was a shot across the bow and now the Borg needs to be corralled into a corner.
I hope Trump’s AG will be a tough prosecutor like Guliani who will appoint a special prosecutor to investigate all the corruption and pay-to-play schemes. The rule of law must apply to everyone especially the politically powerful.
Trump has during the campaign shown that he knows the role played by the Fed in distorting our economy and enabling Wall St to profit at the expense of the Deplorables. It would be a great message if he nominates Ron Paul as Treasury Secretary.
Congress and the White House need to be pressed to reenactment Glass-Stegel legislation to rein in Wall Street and the banks, legislation that Clinton and the Bushes destroyed.
You can’t have a DEBT CLOCK without an ASSET CLOCK as well. That is a plain and simple accounting fact. The US federal government uses **double-entry accounting**. (Well, actually, it’s quadruple-entry accounting, but let’s not get too technical.)
What that idiot real estate mogul Seymour Durst failed to recognize when he put up the Debt Clock in Manhattan in the late 70s was that for every debt there is an asset. He did not understand what happened on August 15, 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard (internationally) finally for once and for all. Watergate and the oil embargo preoccupied the idiotic and Bernstein/Woodward-jealous media class. They failed to report on the significance of what Nixon did.
So where are those $20 trillion assets? They are in your bank account, every institution’s bank account, pension funds, corporate savings, and grandma’s savings bond.
It’s simple accounting, folks.
Many kudos to Tyler and thanks to all of you for the discussion here at STT, the best website of all time!
Tyler
Yes indeed! It would be fantastic if Ron Paul got Treasury and Buchanan got State. That would be a one-two punch that should setback the Borg a good bit. The establishment Republicans and the DC thinktank world should be taught a serious lesson. Their racket needs to be disrupted big time.
I pray that the ziocons don’t sneak through under the wings of Adelson.
The same people who didn’t listen to the pain of The People in late 2008-2009 are the same people who haven’t listened to the mood in the country.
Obama sealed his fate when he failed to bring a single person to justice for the fraud that caused The Great Recession. His first forgiveness when he got to office was to forgive the bankers. And as someone who has spent an enormous amount of time studying it since then, I can tell you there was 70X more fraud than the S&L crisis.
Tyler, Ron Paul would be a disaster. His gold-standard horseshit is 80-years old. Anyone who believed in 2011 the current William DeVane stupidity about putting your retirement money in gold has lost 1/3 of his or her wealth. The price of an ounce of gold in 2011 soared to over $1900 an ounce. What is it now? I think just over $1200. At least if someone put their cash in treasury securities they would have their capital protected and **earning interest on it** to boot, something gold bugs can’t guarantee.
I honestly hope so, in the spirit of reconciliation. If Trump really does mean to bind the wounds of the nation, like he said, he should make that promise before he takes office and carry through as the first thing he does. I’ll be honest and say that I’d love to see the look on Clinton fans’ faces when President Trump pardons her (and her husband too).
As an ‘outsider’, I have not commented here during the run up to the election – even though I have followed it with interest. I did admire the faith displayed by Tyler in the ultimate victory of Donald Trump, and I’d like to congratulate him (and all the others similarly inclined) on a “famous victory”.
I’m mainly interested in President Trump’s dealings with the world outside the US. If indeed his foreign policies are as outlined by Col Lang above, then I think they are to be applauded. They should lead to a world with less war and strife than would have been the case with a Clinton administration.
In this Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3-s72NToTw
And then they have the audacity to ask people to do an excellent job until the last moment that they are on those jobs. And these workers will likely never be able to be so profitably employed.
There is no hope of something similar, let alone something better. Note that because of lower taxes – in comparison to EU – US workers are wealthier, until they lose their jobs and God forbid that they get sick; for then they have no protection whatsoever.
Even highly educated and skilled individuals have to live with the constant fear of off-shoring, forced early-retirements, medical expense costs etc.; all the while boards reward officers of companies by tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.
People are angry & fearful about their “little jobs”.
That is also what motivated people to vote Brexit here in the UK to a large extent (‘I don’t care what they say because they look after themselves’).
In fact, Hitler promised jobs and delivered — pouring huge resources into re-arming the country, and the rest is history.
Did you notice that T. May quashed the visa deal with India? She has antagonized the Indians to such an extent: I think they can forget about a trade deal with India now. Another nail in the Brexit coffin. And the UK has relaxed visa requirements for the Chinese, in the meantime!…
We will see more of such things.
The article referenced below is insightful and explains the chasm between ‘the elite’ and ‘the masses’. It is written from a British, Conservative perspective but is nevertheless balanced and spot on, in my view, and applies to countries other than the UK.
If you have time, do read the account of the ethnographic field trip in Magaluf (AKA Shagaluf): the middle-class female academic who is horrified by the way the lower classes behave — including the women. You’d think she was surrounded by wild, drunken Zulus.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/11/kieron-ohara-political-parties-must-adapt-to-this-popular-revolt-or-else-risk-more-nihilists-like-trump.html
I wonder whether Trump, if elected, will actually do something about crony capitalism. Isn’t he part of that very system?
Well said! I second that: What’s the point of weaseling around?
For poetic and noetic signification, go on from Neitzche to Paul Ricoeur.
Especially the KofC will appreciate him writing from within that tradition, but i have succeeded in applying Ricoeur to even non-christian tradition.
Congrats to the committee for sane surfing the social culture waves over the past year and months!
From Times educational supplement:
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/fear-and-loathing-in-shagaluf-the-brit-scholar-abroad/2020106.article
What are Marine Le Pen’s chances of going for the hat trick?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/728925/Marine-le-pen-french-national-poll-immigrants
This year looks like a redux of 2012 for the Five Thirty-Eight model. Both years there were some late fluctuations that were hard for the model to digest. Last time Obama outperformed the model by three points. This time Trump outperformed the model by a around four points. Given that, it looks like even the most rigorous forecast model showing a three point difference is too close to call. Of course, the only way to empirically validate a probability forecast would be to repeat the election until a true probability could be established – a rather onerous task.
The Five Thirty-Eight model took a lot of flak this year for forecasting a lower probability for Clinton than others such as Daily Kos, which had Clinton consistently in the nineties. Their 70% miss of the actual result is clearly the most accurate statistical forecast this year.
The Lincoln Trail — back roads between DC and Ohio that Geo Washington traversed on his way to Fort Duquesne — is a beautiful drive this time of year. Numerous small Pennsylvania towns with Anglo or German names, and Trump signs everywhere you look.
Passing thru the mountains around Shanksville at the end of the workday I saw a number of town halls, VFWs, elementary schools, fire houses with folks lined up — 30, 40, 50 people in their flannel shirts and heavy shoes, in line, waiting to vote. They put Pennsylvania in Trump’s column.
On the other hand, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), whose economy relies on “meds and eds” gave HRC a 90,000 vote edge. In that county’s major city the building that used to be the US Steel tower is now home to University of Pittsburgh Medical Centers (UPMC) — a mammoth medical-hospital conglomerate and the largest employer in the state; and two of the numerous universities that keep a significant chunk of real estate in the tax exempt status — Pitt and Carnegie-Mellon — are major beneficiaries of Department of Defense funding.
I just looked at some of the voter turnout numbers and the assumptions that go into creating those numbers in order to get a sense for why the polls were so wrong. Anytime a pollster polls they need to estimate voter turnout by demographic. As far as I can see right now is that two of those estimations were off.
One was the turnout for whites with a highschool or less education. Their turnout in this election seems to be 4 to 5% higher than previous elections in the last decade. Given that this demographic had Trump over Hillary by 39% that will result huge error right there. The second turnout estimation that was off was the turnout of Democratic voters in predictable Hillary precincts was down just a bit. That is what can happen when voters start to believe the bullshit put out by their own party.
I was arguing with my wife that the enthusiasm we could see for Trump out there in the boondocks (for us that would be the Central Valley of California) it seemed quite possible that the voting day support for Trump is going to missed by those polls.
Thus, for the pre-election day polls this can explain their error. It does not, obviously, explain exit poll polls. What explains that is what is called the “shy Trump” supporter (throw me into that category, I would never admit to anyone who I actually voter for).
Pat Lang,
Giuliani’s obviously not senile. I think he’s over the hill for the job of A.G. Patrick Fitzgerald (no relation) would be a good pick for that position. He’s scrupulous when it comes to the law, from what I’ve seen. I don’t have an opinion as to his managerial ability but assume that he’d be up to the task.
WPFIII
Well either data was missing or pubicly not saying data was missing was order of the day at dnc.
Poll station closures, hacked party registrations for new voters (like my 18 y.o nephew who’s bernie ballot got processed as American indepenence party), and cancelled exit polls (let alone voting machine issues) in the great state of CA meant DnC killed off its large chunks of its usual sources of prediction statistical data.
One of the plagues in the country imo is bias against any qualitative values even when there are robust research methodologies for their systematic research. A truly virtuous civilization has everything money can buy, but for the more noble purposes of creating value that no amount of money can buy.
Babak,
Hear! Hear! specially Freeman.
WPFIII
“we’re glad to see the neocons take a massive hit.”
Not so massive — according to Paul Gottfried, Michael Ledeen is in Trump’s corner, if not in his kitchen. http://www.unz.com/pgottfried/yes-virginia-dare-there-are-righteous-jews-for-trump/
According to a BBC documentary , Ledeen was head cheerleader for war against Iraq https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jilA-ZeBUI4
At the time, Ledeen’s major patron was fellow Bridge player Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns. Cayne lost his fortune in 2008. Don’t know if Ledeen lost his patron & is desperately seeking relevance & revenue & Trump threw him a lifeline. If the latter, a mistake: Ledeen should be allowed to sink.
Gop can strengthen its flanks with berners trump reached out to months ago on twitter, by going more for the libertarians like ron and rand paul than the hot air bags. Gingrich comes drenched in the stink of the clinton era…better put him out if sight as a back room bookkeeper, especially for grtting millenials involved in making a positive contribution to the country, they are not going to go in for that old hot air bag scene.Trump should go for brains and skills, and not let the puppet hand of cronyism climb up his back.
Tyler congratulations. You nailed it.
Today there is the hope that World War III was avoided and sovereignty was returned to the people.
A question for the future will be if the financiers can continue their looting by exploiting the nation’s divisions or will the rule of law be restored. Sadness that tribalism and scapegoating of environmentalists for being the cause of the Rust Belt worked. Finally, worry about my government pension with the Republicans in control of everything.
Paul Craig Roberts: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/11/09/the-working-class-won-the-election-paul-craig-roberts/
“For a man such as Trump to risk acquiring so many powerful enemies and to risk his wealth and reputation, he had to have known that the people’s dissatisfaction with the ruling establishment meant he could be elected president.”
Roberts’ dream: “Trump said that he no longer sees the point of NATO 25 years after the Soviet collapse. If he sticks to his view, it means a big political change in Washington’s EU vassals. The hostility toward Russia of the current EU and NATO officials would have to cease. German Chancellor Merkel would have to change her spots or be replaced. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg would have to be dismissed…..”
On the same breath: “If the oligarchy is unable to control Trump and he is actually successful in curbing the power and budget of the military/security complex and in holding the financial sector politically accountable, Trump could be assassinated.”
Well Citigroup majority shareholder is from house of saud.
Tyler is an inspiration to us all. I was brainwashed by trained hypnotist and Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams. I’ve been saying for months that it was going to be a Trump landslide. Got off facebook a month before the election b/c i was getting with never ending discussions w/ HRC supporters.
To me, it’s an open and shut case. Masilov’s hierarchy of needs. You don’t think of chocolate cake when you are running for your life chased by the bear. You make sure the pancakes are on the plate before worrying what kind of Syrup to put on them. Hillary is an inveterate, incorrigible, & unrepentant war monger. She is absolutely bad news. She talked Bill into bombing Serbia and talked Obama into Libya, Ukraine, & Syria. She would have baited and goaded the Russ into nuclear war just to prove she had cojones.
When I went to bed early Tuesday night after drinking rye whiskey w/ pomegranate, i did briefly question my sanity. Was I delusional? Was my certainty that Trump would win sane, even though all the media and polls were contrary? After reflection, I decided it was them, and not me that were nuts.
On the other hand, my wife (SWMBO), a registered Repub, said “i gotta listen to that xssshole for another four years.” Well, my dear as the Col. sometimes says, sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes she eats you!
After having said all that, I am concerned w/ Gen Flynn’s and Trump’s belligerence toward the Persians. Ain’t no way you can have a Concert of Nations w/o their participation. But maybe, it’s the opening gambit per Art of the Deal?
Colonel,
One has to wonder what Max Cleland is thinking right about now with Trump’s big win.
I disagree that economically he will be bad. His promised corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% will certainly benefit them BIG LEAGUE if he follows through.
David,
A bit off-topic, but would love to read your assessment of Theresa May.
Alba Etie,:
This is OT, so, briefly:
1-Gulen supporters: Distraught. Clinton was supposed to save them.
2-Democracy lovers-globaists-liboshes: We also call these vermin fresh-water democrats, panderers, etc. They are distraught, no more largesse from the court.
3-Secular Kemalists: We have always identified HRC with the local zionist manipulations and the war party,and we are happy she lost. DT is an unknown quantity. We really do not think much will change w/ respect to Turkey.
4-tayybian: They see an opportunity to play Trump against Putin.
5-Seperatist kurds: Not very happy. They were counting on HRC.
I am asking Kunuri for comment in case I overlooked something.
I hope this result will be a net positive for the USA and, hopefully, for the world.
Ishmael Zechariah
I don’t think Obama regrets much of anything. Honestly, listening to his speech this morning he seemed to not give not much of a hoot that Hillary lost. He’ll laugh all the way to the bank with only ice-water and personal self-interest in his veins.
There is no longer any authority for a special prosecutor. The statute expired in 1999 in the face of a Republican filibuster.
OGP
I’m very curious about how the dynamics between the freedom caucus, moderate republicans, and democrats in the Senate will play out with re/ to President Elect Trump. Who he chooses to surround himself with in his transition to the White House will be telling.
Gingrich is a deep thinker. He held hearings on EMP. William Forstchen wrote the best fictional EMP books. One Second Later, One Year Later, and in January a new one The Final Day. He also wrote a novel on one of the Col.’s favorite topics, the space elevator- Pillar to the Sky.
And for those that interested Grinch and Forstchen wrote a series of alternative history Civil War Novels. And one on Pearl Harbor.
Iran is always the Boogie Man. Ever since the Beirut Barracks Bombing was blamed on them. Add to that the hostage crisis. In Forstchen’s book, both Iran and N Korea get nuked in retaliation. My hope is that Putin can bring him around to a Concert of Nations. The Russians themselves had their Iranian issues, Persian support for the Islamist Jihadists in Serbia for one. But, they are getting along famously now.
Donald Trump doesn’t have a clue what he’s gotten himself in to. You can see it in his face. A lot of you all who voted for him have been had. He’s out for himself. He’s part of the FIRE sector. I wish us all good luck. If the Republicans actually get rid of the EPA, I hope you don’t end up living in a polluted place. The bright spot is that there’s less of a chance of war with Russia. His theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URp-Dbhr7EU
Tyler doesn’t inspire me at all.
He’s an annoyance.
OGP
Josh Earnest today refused to rule out a presidential pardon for Clinton in the classified violations. why would he do that if the matter could not be prosecuted by a special counsel or special prosecutor? there is also the matter of the ongoing FBI investigation into the Clinton Foundation. In either case Obama would have the problem of deciding how many people to pardon. pl
excellent description of Iowa. The people there wanted change and the only one that was not part of the DC crowd was the Trumpster. Let’s see what change he can bring to DC. A large part of it should be neutering the GOP establishment in Washington. My view from Omaha but a Hawkeye graduate.
Might encourage more companies to keep jobs in US.
The sad part of your assessment of the political formations in Turkey is their abject dependence – in their minds – on what goes on in the United States.
They really need to adopt the “Yes, We Can.” motto of Ahmadinejad and get on with it.
Thank you.
I always thought the man was deranged, based on his utterances. Someone else told me: “Nah, he is saying those things based on his audience to get money or favor.”
I guess there is a deranged audience in US, albeit powerful and wealthy.
The EMP threat has been there since 1960s, if I am not mistaken.
forgot where i saw it, b/ it’s priceless: “The public takes Trump’s remarks figuratively and his candidacy seriously. The media takes his remarks literally and his candidacy non-seriously.” ya gotta read The Art of the Deal. gotta get past the opening offer.
Looked at the latest popular vote. Clinton looks to be ahead 206,000 votes. Damn that electoral college system. Hope it works out better with Trump than Junior in 2000. We all know how that turned out.
My dear American siblings, it is now up to you. We learnt during the Obama years that capturing the Presidency is not enough. That seat in the end is only one centre of power among many in the States; and not the most powerful. What your President needs is their own centre of power; you.
Democracy is not five minutes every four years, but every day of our lives. We have been asleep too long, we’ve gotten fat and lazy, and we have left the running of our communities to the wrong people. It is time for the Silent Majority to find it’s voice.
I thought I might be too world-weary to ever feel hope again, but I do today. I had given up on the American people ever rising up against the Masters of the Universe. We have seen so many false dawns before, but they still retain their beauty. Evil triumphs when good people do nothing. So have at it!
Keep seeing rumors about Bolton in his cabinet? Likely?
Steve
The pardon should be conditional on remission of 90 % of the value of the Clinton Foundation to the Treasury.
Mark Gaughan
I deleted it. So if you want that version up, send it to me again. pl
Stu Wood
You Democrats liked the electoral college just fine when you thought she was going get over 300 votes there. Her popular vote majority is all I California. Is that still part of the US? pl
48 states + half of Europe, Turkey and some East Asian countries
“Furthermore, with the global economy so interlinked, there are plenty of resources and labor that can be tapped in other parts of the world pretty easily.”
That sounds to me suspiciously like Neo-con meet globalist. Not Trump’s style at all.
And I get the feeling that he’s not wedded to any particular monetary doctrine. He’s a pragmatist, ready to use whatever serves the purpose of getting the US out of the economic position it’s in. I hope he succeeds, for all our sakes. I’d not like to see him repeat the mistakes of the Thatcher and Reagan years, when slavish adherence to doctrine over-rode common sense and led to the mess we’re all in now.
Are you quite sure that Trump holds the views you attribute to him?
The Dem party cracked open when Bernie and his supporters were played by the DNC. The exposure of the cynical game in the hacked emails made it clear that Clinton was more interested in her access to power than in the Democratic Party and the US citizenry at large. Perhaps Clinton has inflicted an irreparable damage to the institution. She even managed to crack open the GOP by becoming the choice of plutocracy, major war mongers in particular (including the despicable Kagans’ clan). Is not it amazing that the results of the election have created a sense of hope re the US democracy… Fascinating.
stu wood
The electoral college was created to prevent presidential elections becoming direct and thereby creating a mobocracy. I heartily approve the mechanism. pl
@ Babak
Like this case 2012 and again last July together with Giuliani
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/07/heres-the-video-of-newt-gingrich-bowing-to-the-leader-of-an-iranian-terrorist-group/259313/
Fred,
I wonder about the same thing.
The older I get, the more I realize that there are many kinds of “knowing”. There’s also many kinds of “not knowing”.
As far as I can can tell, there’s a lot of smart people who are convinced that a lot of untrue things are true when it comes to economics, immigration, population growth and the continued takeover of human work and job tasks by computers.
They are convinced that somehow in a world in which there will be far more people with less for all of us to do that somehow, we will all benefit in the US by adding over 1 million new permanent residents — including hundreds of millions of people from countries that are much different from us, people who were very poor at home and seem very like to remain that way here, often with little education and/or little to no English.
The effects of all of this are just wonderful in many people’s eyes. It increases our GDP and “grows our economy”, they say.
Now you and I see that the minuses of all of this (especially into the future, as today’s somewhat increased population leads to a greatly increased US population in 25, 50, 100 years and beyond) because it will lead to much higher demand for government assistance and services and burdens our own workers by higher housing costs, increased job competition and lowered wages, etc., etc.
But the people who don’t want to see the negatives of very high immigration levels will continue to try not to see them because clear vision interferes with their long treasured and protective world view.
We can hope that yesterday’s election will cause some of them to wake up and start realizing how much their various internal filters have clouded their view of life in America.
Yes, we can hope, and I do. There will resistance, though, and a lot of it to recognizing a lot of obvious truths uncovered by the election of Trump.
Hear! Hear!
In reply to The Twisted Genius 09 November 2016 at 01:54 PM
“However, if he at least manages to cut off the vile monster Clinton and the Nuland cabal created in Kiev, I’d gladly salute the magnificent bastard. ”
And if he manages to browbeat the Poles and the Baltic republics into dialling down their hysterical and vicious Russophobia I’m going to nominate him for cannonisation.
If at the same time he manages to put fear of God or the other fellow into the Saudis and the Israelis I’m going to invite him to assume the pontificate – and nominate you as spokespope.
Kao,
I’ll predict she won’t be indicted. Trump is in the unique position in regards to his campaign statements: Even his supporters know he lies shamelessly. Listen to him lead the chants of “Mexico will pay for it!” The issue will die.
I suspect something similar will happen in a lot of areas. Congress will do a jig that will maintain something like Obamacare in all but name, and everybody will then accept it. Congress will hesitate before sending a President a bill to simply strip it now that they have a President who will feel forced to do so. The howls from the crowds of people who would once again be without insurance could be loud enough to de-rail many other things.
Hillary is to blame for her being so generally viewed as a crook. She adopted the Obama “When they go low we go high”. That is necessary for black people, who could never have been president if he had shown at any time anger, but it works the other way around for whites. Trump demonstrated unabated rage at accusations. That is what Hillary failed to do. Had she done so we would be talking about Trump University as much as e-mails. Trump is the master of media.
Btw, I just heard Wolf Blitzer start in on demanding the US Embassy be moved to Jerusalem and playing clips of Trump stridently promising to do so. The Borg are probing for paths to Trump’s assimilation.
all
Just heard the Latina, Maria Teresa Kumar, say that this was the last election to be determined by White voters. She is the head of Voto Latino. She looks pretty White to me by American standards. In the UK, maybe not. In any event it took one day for the Dems to start running the demography change meme again. pl
It would have been a smart bet that Trump would outperform expectations. The U.S. has a missing voter base among all demographic groups. Polling and local ballots may bear this out, but instinct tells me Trump’s margin owes to depressed turnout in the Great Lakes area’s old cities, and motivated voters in the white-flight areas around them.
Pollsters can’t convey more than one top-line number into a media environment that isn’t equipped to provide perspective or context. This is also true with U3 vs. U6 labor stats, as Trump has indicated during the campaign in his blunt, expressionist style.
Results in actual policy will depend on how much Trump is inclined, willing, or able to govern as a quasi-independent rather than being bound by (R) orthodoxy. Trump would have to tell Paul Ryan, “Fine opening bid, but you gotta make your numbers add up. And put a net under the wide gap you ask people to jump over.”
If experience in Wisconsin is any indication, the agenda of Republicans in congress will include many initiatives that have barely registered with the public, have been on the wish list of some faction, and can be passed with little debate or call for attention. If Trump is independent enough and has a power base from which to push back, I will be impressed. I think Trump will find that U.S. senators have bases of influence that will be able to frustrate and embarrass him.
If I may hyperventilate for a minute, I feel that the most likely areas where political norms may be violated are: (a) do away with filibuster for supreme court appointment or entirely, (b) stack the supreme court, (c) interference with states on cannabis and similar issues that principled federalism would leave to states, (d) issues around libel/slander in tension with journalism, or criminalization of journalism, advocacy, or dissent, (e) executive branch that engages in petty, egoist payback, (f) make it difficult for areas with dense population to function, with an objective to cause distress to areas represented by Democrats.
A twenty-five per cent tax on all advertising would be a nice way for Trump to weaken the MSM. Their utter uselessness has been demonstrated by their near-unanimous circling of the wagons around the Clintons, carefully refraining from committing journalism around them or their Foundation.
To avoid hitting small businesses too hard, the tax could be made progressive.
Trump should qualify this tax policy a little further:
– all companies that return their core businesses and restore their employee base back to the US would see their corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 15% automatically.
Col.,
Let’s hope that the markets get over their Trump vapors soon. A recession is a very real possibility, with central banks already being near the zero interest point.
As for the “deplorables,” the white working class started voting like a minority group a bit ahead of schedule. For the future, much depends on whether any of Trump’s policies benefits them over the next 2 and 4 years.
FWIW, my own voter registration was meddled with in mid-Feb of this year.
I have voted in my county for over 30 years.
When I called to ask where my ballot was, the young woman on the other end of the line (who sounded quite competent) said, “This is weird… this is just WEIRD… wow, this is SO weird…”
As near as she could figure, someone had literally walked into the voter registration division and altered my birth year – it was decades off.
Mid-February was after my first donation to Sanders.
I could get flipped out about this, but I don’t have the time or energy this week.
My ballot arrived on time for me to vote.
I think that SST, which has already been invaluable for me the past several years, will be even more important going forward in a world full of confusion.
Today, I saw a man in a t-shirt with a cartoon of Trump standing over the Capital Dome scowling, finger pointed in anger, with the words, “Washington DC, you’re fired!” Judging from the man’s appearance, vehicle, and where I happened to see him, he is nowhere near the bottom of the economic scale.
On the upside, an event like this means more tea leaves than I’ll ever have time to read.
Kind of like being a glutton for punishment 8^p
Bernie Sanders has been vindicated beyond anyone’s expectations.
Robert,
Going to write a little something up.
AE,
Taking a few days to victory lap and then getting ready for the real work ahead.
40 million illegals ain’t gonna deport themselves.
Cee,
He ended the Bush and Clinton Dynasties last night. The universal joy knows no bounds.
Robt,
This was lovely. Thank you for sharing. It fit my mood perfectly.
Patrick,
I think Trump has their number.
Mark,
Sorry to see you like this last night, boo. Hope someone helped you up.
http://m.imgur.com/UNBubWE
Mark,
Is this the new “He’ll never be nominated”?
VV,
Thank you. Hopefully we will indeed MAGA. I look forward to doing my part.
Excellent observations. Let’s hope that Trump is as gracious as a winner as he sounded last night/this morning. Given that many, possibly most, Trump supporters don’t expect Trump to strictly abide by his words, he should be able to keep a lot of troublesome issues off the table. The worry about Trump’s potential susceptibility to the Borgish assimilation is exactly what keeps me from trusting Trump. We shall see how things unfod in that front. It bugged me that the the foreign leader Trump spoke to as president-elect was Netanyahu, but maybe that is a sign that they are worried…
I think the Electoral College is a good idea, actually. Having to win small majorities across many areas is better than winning on the strength of overwhelming support from just one area. No one will win an election unless they come close to break even, and a plurality of a few hundred thousand is not a whole lot of people.
Clinton should have done better campaigning in the Midwest, try to earn a little bit more trust from the white working class voters there. As it were, it was extremely close and just a slight change would have made all the difference. Isn’t that how she got upended in Wisconsin and Michigan during the primaries, possibly, with the same voters even? Didn’t she learn anything? I was thinking that was the amazing thing about the thin margins in the Midwest as I was posting above, but I wonder if I sounded like I was denigrating the Trump victory.
My addition for “Trump’s Agenda”:
Increase funding for research into ways to prevent global warming.
In particular, maximize to the extent it can be productively useful
research into the use of nuclear fusion to generate power.
This should be at the highest priority, far above all the funding for medical research into curing diseases.
A failure to find a cure for, say, cancer will not make things worse for future generations.
OTOH, global warming sure looks like it will make things worse for them.
Tyler,
You nailed the election prediction.
But … while I’m sure Trump would nominate a conservative with good credentials to replace RBG; why would Trump – a famous sybarite and Cruz hater – nominate Cruz – a famous tight ass and Trump hater – to be in a position to regulate (fun and deal loving) people like himself?
I just don’t see him elevating Cruz to the supreme court.
khc -Nah. The polls were totally wrong 0 at least the ones presented to the general public. It was the overweighting for Ds and then some silly assumptions about turnout level for the black vote and the, frankly, racist concept that them there Hispanics are all the same.
I weighted the polls to reflect the actual demographic and political mix (US and states) and doing so showed a clear Trump victory all along since the nomination.
Meanwhile you guys were arguing that representative sampling for things like party affiliation doesn’t matter. Whenever I hear that the basics are being tossed out the window, I know I’m looking at a business or govt that is just about done for.
BabelFish,
“The duplicity and plutocrat nature, that of the Clintons, the Wasserman-Schultz crowd, the Chuck Schumer crowd, could not have more perfectly exposed.”
I think you hit the nail on the head. The press is trying to make news of protesters out tonight in the 7 cities being upset about Trump but I think subconsciously they are upset that their gravy train may end and they may have to do that dreaded things – work and live up to that “be inclusive” rhetoric they’ve been spitting out for the last 8 years.
“You’d think she was surrounded by wild, drunken Zulus.”
She was surrounded by something much worse, the English.
ps. Your statement obviously shows that you are not European and yes they are that bad.
Doesn’t US Law treat advertising expenses under R&D?
Thanks.
I just cannot see him as US Secretary of State or anything else.
Mark,
There is no surer way for Trump to leave a legacy of stench worse that Barack and Hilary than to play a game of 3 card Monty with the electorate. Obama may indeed pardon Hilary, Huma and the rest of the corrupt establishment. That will only prove him as corrupt as they.
Three hundred ten to 218 is the worst electoral loss since Dukakis. Elections have consequences. Trump should have a special prosecutor appointed even if it takes a new law to do it. That individual should investigate from the bottom up the CGI and the whole email issue. Roll them all up one at a time and then leave Bill and Hilary free – to worry about when they will be indicted. Let them stew in the mess they made. That should be good for four years and plenty of convictions. Make as much public as possible so everyone knows just how corrupt the people and the process have been. Not to do so is the dumbest thing Trump could possibly do.
Origin,
That is the dumbest thing he could do. See my comment to Mark above. Elections have consequences. Whitewashing this corruption must not be one of them.
Mark,
” The bright spot is that there’s less of a chance of war with Russia.”
Not having 40MT nukes going off is good. So he doesn’t have a clue but junior Senator Barack did? Well I voted for that guy twice even knowing he was a light weight.
Mark Kolmar,
“many initiatives that have barely registered with the public, have been on the wish list of some faction, and can be passed with little debate” You mean like this trio of non-national issues?
1. LGBT in the military
2. Women in combat
3. Federal government determination of bathroom policy in local schools – the transgender issue. This is the perfect example of your item “f”.
“(e) executive branch that engages in petty, egoist payback”
It is day 1280 of the IRS scandal.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2016/11/the-irs-scandal-day-1280-wsjlois-lerner-as-precursor-to-james-comey.html
As a Massachusetts resident who considered Johnson, I say Weld is not a man of honor in any way. My family despises him, but we’re social workers, we care about the poor. Weld is not going anywhere I assure you of that. I could have voted for Johnson, but he picked Weld, as such I turned green. If Weld is your vehicle you will be out of luck.
Cities will burn if Guiliani is appointed. Beware.
BuddhistHarmony
Do you have examples of countries that experimented with this theory and the time period they did it?
finally dragged myself out of the bar. feeling fine.
Executive Orders: Small Ball.
SCOTUS: first one is non-Catholic / non-Episcopal. sop to the Evangelicals.
Russia and China: tell China to fix N Korea… or else we will.
impenetrable border barriers: Pyramids Work Program II.
regime change in Syria: regimes? who cares? we’re outta here!
trade deals: “TRUMP” on every cover page.
energy production: subsidies for 20th Century crafts.
illegals who are actual felons: Criminal justice industry shifts to export market.
NATO: dustbin of mutual security.
Trump’s visible cabinet choices:
Gingrich at State: lotsa time to write SciFi.
Flynn at Defense: Out Like Flynn
Giuliani as AG: Trump’s bro not available.
{seriously, does anyone think anything of import will take place further away than 10 meters & 10 sec from this Prez?}
so, I tried an analysis… what Pres. is Trump’s story most like?
Andrew Jackson was the closest I got… riotous populism & the rest. but he was self-made, a brave soldier, and dedicated to his beloved beyond the grave.
so no.
had to go further back in time;
Nero or Caligula?
Thanks Imagine, Babak, Will, interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_R._Forstchen#Writing
Gingrich…pro NAFTA and free trade…Giuliani..?..are not these two part of the “establishment that rigged the system”? Hmm, meet the new boss, same as the old boss?
Robert C.
In reply to John Minnerath 09 November 2016 at 01:39 PM
Under what legislative authority would a special prosecutor be appointed? So far as I know the enabling legsislation lapsed in 1999.
Well, the Deplorables have been conned and did not know it 🙂 IMHO. Donald Trump does not care about anybody or anything but only how to make a buck, to enrich himself.
Tidewater to ked and All,
First of all, congratulations to stubborn Tyler! I didn’t think it was possible. I was going to say, Tyler is four years ahead of his time…Trump would have to build a third party, or so I thought.
ked, I would look to the story of Dunvegan Castle on the Isle of Skye. For seven hundred years it has been the seat of the Chiefs of Clan McLeod. Their history in the Western Isles has been one long battle. Donald Trump is one of these McLeod chiefs. My inference about them from the model he provides is: big, tall, rough, confident, driven, a bit psychopathic, potentially violent, potentially given over to terrible rages, Norse, crafty, cunning, deceptive, mendacious, women obsessed, abusive, domineering, stubborn, grudge bearing, dinner quarrellers, lovers of argument, gifted with the gab… Did I repeat myself? Don’t think so.
So? A Highlander from “serious Scotland” then? Hell, I know these people. The lowlanders can be just as bad.
You are not obligated to love the type…
A translation of a poem by C.P. Cavafy by David Ferry recently made an impression on me. It seems relevant, somehow, not exactly to Trump. I am increasingly fatalistic.
Thermopylae
Honor is due to those who are keeping watch,
Sentinels guarding their own Thermopylae;
Never distracted from what is right to do,
And right to be; in all things virtuous,
But never so hardened by virtue as not to be
Compassionate, available to pity;
Generous if they’re rich, but generous too,
Doing whatever they can, if they are poor;
Always true to the truth, no matter what,
But never scornful of those who have to lie.
Even more honor is due when, keeping watch,
They see that the time will come when Ephialtes
Will tell the secret to the Medes and they
Will know the way to get in through the goat-path.
[Those last lines are the ones that get to me…]
“What explains that is what is called the “shy Trump” supporter (throw me into that category, I would never admit to anyone who I actually voter for).”
I have long maintained that social shaming did much to suppress actual voter preference in terms of polling. As it turns out, in the privacy of the voting booth, every man is a free man.
Good catch!
Infrastructure Keynesianism can be made to work, unlike military Keynesianism. It’s about time we got over the late 19th century hangup about public debt necessarily shrinking the available resources. It wasn’t true in Pharoanic Egypt, 1930s USA and Germany and it’s not true now.
“Bernie Sanders has been vindicated beyond anyone’s expectations.”
Bernie’s supporters have been vindicated. Bernie himself must be feeling an unholy amount of personal shame at his abdication of his principles and his willing capitulation to the machine, along with the thoughts of what might have been had he continued the good fight. One must wonder what he told himself in the dark hours of pre-dawn this morning. I don’t envy him this day.
Just a word of caution. Do watch this CNN clip afterwards as the video editing is rather unfair to what Moore’s message was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFrTORta5MU
I have read some source somewhere that the US has sustained a national debt for every year of its existence aside from two or three years in the 1840s.
I read that as demoncrats and thought it was pretty funny., witty.
Ishmael Zechariah
It is always helpful to have our overseas SST community ‘weigh in ” on topics here. I would argue what is going on with the war against Daesh is relevant for understanding the result of our recent Trump victory here in These United States It is my opinion that its been the Deplorables families here that have been paying most of the freight both in blood & treasure for all the Neo Con misadventures over seas. The reason I asked about Raqqa was it seems if the YPG and there Arab partners take Raqqa then it might open the space for some type of Kurdish state in a Syrian Federation .
Tyler
Would you be able to post here at SST ,with of course the good Colonel’s permission- a description of how ,when & where the work of 40 million illegals being deported from These United States will take shape ? And how much that would cost ?
And again enjoy your victory laps sir , its shaping up to be an interesting four next years .
Is it?
And your point is?
If this was posted earlier, I missed it: Where the Third-Party Candidates Were Strongest … And who did those candidates help more, Trump or Clinton?
http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/09/where-the-third-party-candidates-were-st
@ Babak
Same can be said for John Bolton.
All three of them are what are called “Iran hawks”.
Now, whilst they are being vetted for cabinet positions, it would be interesting to see what the US Treasury found out during its investigations about payments made by MEK to officials proclaiming its virtues.
You don’t need a special prosecutor to prosecute a federal crime, the U.S.Attorney in the location of the offense has full authority. However, I agree with the F.B.I. director concerning the e-mails, this isn’t even close. I base this as a criminal defense attorney with over 300 jury trials and who practices routinely in the Federal Court. The Clinton Foundation could be different but there’s not enough facts at this point to know.
OGP
If Newt Gingrich or John Bolton becomes the Sec of State . However, we should remember that the JCPOA is not a deal with the US only but the P5+1 and I doubt the EU3 and Russia would stay quiet – they’ve got too much to lose – especially France TOTAL which is vyying for more contracts as the China is making her own move.
To my knowledge, Iran was not involved against Serbia by supporting Muslims in Kosovo; it that is what you meant.
Iran was involved in supporting Bosnian Muslims – Slavic converts from Christianity during Ottoman rule – during the war in Bosnia.
In any event, US & EU states forced Bosnians to evict Iranians; preferring Saudi Arabians there instead – during the 1990s.
In regards to Muslim Jihadists waging war against the Russian Federation:
The Islamic Republic of Iran, to my knowledge, never supported the Chechens; at considerable political cost to the standing of Iran among Sunni Muslims who considered Chechens to be waging a Just War.
Amazing that the memory of the Great King still could bring forth such propaganda; as though the Ionians never existed.
Pacifica,
Labor unions were not ‘created’ they came into existence over a long, long and often violent period in the US which is quite different than what happened in Europe. Immigration has not played any part on wages? That’s funny. You should get the fine folks running Taiwan to open the borders to a few million folks across the straits. BTW I’m glad to know academia now considers fields like construction, agriculture and meat packing to be high tech white collar jobs that are affected by immigration.
Babak,
Yes in the West we still remember Leonidas and the 300 and even Ephialtes. In the East you have – the Great King. The rest were just
statisticssubjects of little note and are long forgotten.Eric,
That’s one reason I keep coming back to this. The one scenario that I modeled that got the election results almost exactly right is not the one that included partisanship but one that omitted college education: omitting college education as a factor in demographics actually got every state right except NV and CO, which the model assigned to the Trump column (it also predicted 1% PV plurality for Trump). Including parties actually gets things more wrong than right–especially in the Midwest.). In other words, Trump won because he did well among the working class AND because he did pretty well among the educated voters, not nearly as much as polls were predicting. This made intuitive sense to me when I ran it because educated partisans, when push comes to shove, vote party (and Republicans “coming home” was in the news). Among the working class, on the other hand, partisanship matters less–throwing out the party variable showed the latter moving to Trump across party lines. Still, I had trouble believing this since the polls were showing too large a gap between college grads and non college grads.
So this is the subtle reality taking a closer look at polls should show us: Trump won because of Republican college grads AND non-Republican working class–and the latter are the real “Deplorables,” the forgotten people whose voice deserves to be heard. Will they be heard? If Trump can shout down the former, the Republican college grads, for the latter, he will be the great man that he thinks he is. Until that moment, I will reserve judgment beyond offering him the goodwill he deserves as the president-elect.
Power from Nuke Fusion? The Sun is a giant fusion reactor constantly blasting photons our way. The three problems were cost, looks, and battery storage. Cost has come down, solar house shingles are being developed, and Musk is building the largest battery manufacturing plant on the planet. It may be here sooner than people think? Will the utilities and guv allow us to live off the grid?
But then again, cold fusion keeps poking its head tantalizingly. there may indeed be something to it. And there could be a breakthrough in the laser fusion and Tokomak plasma containment proects.
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-gigafactory-tesla-21060726-snap-story.html
Ionians didn’t exist. Neither did Korean kamikaze pilots (if you are Korean nationalists), and they didn’t sing forbidden Korean nationalist songs on the way to their last mission either (if you are Japanese nationalists).
Of course, with a name such “Babak Makkinejad” one could not be a European.
I must admit that I do like Spain; perhaps “Victor Hector Ricardo Montalban y Alba”?
Hasn’t worked for Japan over the last 30 years. They’ve built many a bridge to nowhere while exploding their government debt. Yet, there has been no real growth.
The context is important.
China is the most recent example that infrastructure keynesians use. While some of that infrastructure spending was very useful, there has also been massive misallocation of capital. The denouement of the resultant China credit bubble is yet to arrive. Watch that story unfold.
Tidewater to Babak,
First of all, I thought that the Ionians–meaning Asia Minor — were up in revolt against Xerxes and the central government of the empire because of the heavy taxation on them to build Persepolis? (Though having been there for a half a day I am inclined to think it was worth it.) But what does the Great King have to do with all this? Xerxes was the son of his daughter and the blood could become thin, and the times change, could it not? From clog to clog in three generations? Hmmmm. People never get over having an empire, huh? So, it’s gotta be ‘just stick with the team’, vote (or bow to) the straight Achaemenid ticket, always, right down through the Ages? You sound like an old Tory! I thought you were a liberal, modern, high-tech intellectual? Now you reveal that you seem to entertain some sort of knee-jerk loyalty to a lost Golden Age that went Bronze and then lost even that when they couldn’t get tin from Cornwall to make the bronze, cause of somebody’s blockade or the other. And the next thing you know, man, it’s the Iron Age! Face it. Adapt and survive. Xerxes messed up. That doesn’t reflect on the Great King.
But what is Cavafy really talking about? Could it not be the ‘trahison des clercs’. The Treason of the Scribes?
F.B. Ali,
Unfortunately, having been busy with other things, I have not been following how Theresa May has been handling matters as closely as I would have liked.
What I do think is that there is a market social contrast with the leadership she has replaced, which is very much to her advantage.
Not only David Cameron, but also George Osborne and Boris Johnson, were members of a thing called the Bullingdon Club at Oxford. Its members had dinners where they got blind drunk, trashed the places they had hired, and then thought the could make it up by flashing their (unearned) money around.
And Cameron and Osborne also admired and imitated Blair, who apparently they called ‘the Master’.
(See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2016/oct/03/tony-blaie-the-master-cameron-osborne-nickname .)
The author of the piece in the ‘Guardian’ to which I have linked clearly regards this is all rather funny. I think Blair, Cameron and Osborne are not only extraordinarily unpleasant people, but also embody rather precisely the pathology of contemporary Western élites, who have increasingly lost touch with, and come to despise, the people they are supposed to represent.
(Also, Blair, Cameron and Osborne are all, to put it bluntly, drivelling dolts, in particular when it comes to trying to make some sense of worlds beyond Britain.
They are still consumed with ‘imperial nostalgia’, but have nothing, or at least very little, of the – sometimes by no means negligible – ‘knowledge base’ which old-fashioned ‘imperialists’ had. Among other things, none of them have any serious grasp of military matters.)
Like them, Theresa May went to Oxford – and she also grew up in Oxfordshire. But her father was an Anglican vicar, and – apparently – a grandfather a regimental sergeant major. She went to Oxford from a comprehensive school. Her husband, whom she met there, is a banker.
Accordingly, she in part is a product of, and exemplifies, the tensions and contradictions involved in the culture of the modern Tory Party.
It may be very helpful, however, that she is, as it were, in the middle.
Also, I think, because of her background, she has some of the virtues of an older Anglican culture.
People who come out of such a culture, as I in part do, would never – but never, never in any circumstances – talk about ‘deplorables’. This does not mean that they necessarily like, or approve, what some of those ‘deplorables’ may think and say.
But they are part of your own people, and you do not simply dismiss them as a kind of ‘lower form of life.’ (This is not simply a matter of benevolence and good nature: Sensible people know that if you push ‘deplorables’ too far, they may run amuck. You don’t want 1789, or 1917)
Likewise – as Kipling very well knew and brought out – that old Anglican culture had a very complex relationship with those ‘deplorables’ who, historically, made up the rank-and-file of the British Army.
Curiosity about these matters provoked me into doing a search on the mortality rate among Oxford graduates in 1914-18. As someone who grew up in Oxford, but whose background has nothing in common with that of Cameron, Osborne, and Boris Johnson, I was fascinated to find an entry on the website of Corpus Christi College:
‘During the course of the First World War, 351 Corpus men saw active service. Of these, 90 were killed – the entire intake for about 4½ years at pre-1914 rates of entry. At 25 per cent of those serving, Corpus’ losses were the highest for all Oxford colleges. Much depended on the college’s social composition: those, like Corpus, with the highest public school entries fared worse than others with a smaller proportion from public schools. Whatever the make-up of the particular college, recruits from Oxford colleges were overwhelmingly public school men who were quickly commissioned as junior officers and whose lives as leaders in the front line were generally short.
‘Of the 90 student casualties, 15 had earned an order (two Victoria Crosses, nine Military Crosses and four Mentions in Dispatches) during their World War I service. Aside from the Corpus Christi College students who died, there were also two “servants” who were killed in the war. Of these individuals we know nothing other than their names (A. Clifford and H.G. Ward), their regiments, and their date of death.”
(See https://www.ccc.ox.ac.uk/Roll-of-Honour-1914-1918-Introduction/ .)
Because very few had anticipated a long war, it was precisely the ‘public school men’ from Oxford and similar places who were thrown in, when so many of the officers of the old professional army had ‘come a cropper’, as we say in England, without adequate training, let alone experience.
It may be that today’s comfortable Oxford students are still sometimes driven to reflect on how long the lists on the boards commemorating their colleges’ war dead are.
I have to say that in relation to the Corpus Christi website I am slightly inclined to suspect a small element of snobbery, as college ‘servants’ – very important people in running these institutions – in general were recruited among older men, and so would could not have been expected to figure high up in casualty lists.
But the history does point up what used to be a basic principle. There were limits to how far the élites were happy to go around creating wars in which they expected their social inferiors to fight while they remained exempt.
Contemporary élites, alike in Britain and the United States, cannot understand what the nature of an older ‘social contract’ was.
Accordingly, they cannot see that, although it is doubtless outdated, their inability to replace it with anything meaningful is as dangerous for them as it is for everyone else.
Tidewater to Babak Makkinejad,
I admit that there are so often different points of view.
The Persian Version
Truth-loving Persians do not dwell upon
The trivial skirmish fought near Marathon.
As for the Greek theatrical tradition
Which represents that summer’s expedition
Not as a mere reconnaissance in force
By three brigades of foot and one of horse
(Their left flank covered by some obsolete
Light craft detached from the main Persian fleet)
But as a grandiose, ill-starred attempt
To conquer Greece–they treat it with contempt;
And only incidentally refute
Major Greek claims, by stressing what repute
The Persian monarch and the Persian nation
Won by this salutary demonstration:
Despite a strong defence and adverse weather
All arms combined magnificently together.
Robert Graves.
You miss the entirety of what the Great King accomplished; the first Universal Empire.
And there was this: when the Great King was overthrown by the Greeks, everything East of Dardanelles was deprived of the spread of the tradition of Greek Rationalist Thought, strongest among Ionians.
That defect has persisted for over 2300 years – with various attempts at its amelioration all failing repeatedly.
Well, I feel free to emphasize this or that historical epoch. After all, you guys West of the Diocletian Line write history as though there is positive progression from Solon all the way to Trump.
The fact of the matter is that since the demise of the Great King, Peace and Prosperity have only prevailed in that part of the world contingently and sporadically.
The Seljuks were the closest that came to the Great King, ruling from Oxus to Antalia – but the death of great Alp Arsalan – who forgot his duty to his subjects to live – sealed its fate.
Had Alp Arsalan lived, almost certainly the Seljuks would have endured and would have protected the inhabitants of Central Asia and the Iranian Plateau from decades of Mongol depredation and rapine.
Thank you.
I have been told that Koreans were well on the path of assimilation until US destroyed the Empire of Japan.
Depends on what one means by “assimilation.” By late 1930s, Japanese Empire decided on “multicultural” Empire as the official policy, and both Taiwanese and Koreans responded rather well to the idea (and this is why they thought the whole Co-Prosperity Sphere would work well.) Simultaneously promoting a managed version of Korean nationalism and the Japanese imperial idea led to the paradoxes like what I mentioned, and who knows how it’d have turned out if it was allowed to continue on for a few more decades.
Babak, you are forgetting Alexander the Great. The Great King is nothing to be proud of; Empire is evil. Alexander connected Greece, India (and distantly China), Persia, Babylon, Egypt and Arabia together for the first time. This opening allowed all these great cultures to combine in Alexandria, and much of the Golden Age was directly due to Alexander’s conquests. Rather than a Persian mono-culture, we got the best of the world’s great civilisations. This is the difference between democracy and imperialism.
“Empire is Evil.”
Says who? You? If so, please kindly decamp to the North of Mason-Dixon Line, give back the Southwest to Mexico (1/3 of their country), Free Puerto Rico, and dissolve NATO.
What was wrong, tell me, with Austro-Hungarian Empire, nothing subsequent to its dissolution has been superior to it in any manner – little cities of no account now have flags waving high…
And do not tell me about Alexander’s achievements; the Great King ruled for over 200 years, Alexander destroyed Order and replaced by chaos which lasted for centuries until the Sassanid Restoration.
Alexandria was a product of Roman Peace, as far as I can tell.
Addendum. With the later tallies, Trump outperformed the Five Thirty-Eight model by less than three points. The model this year was slightly more accurate than it was in 2012; it’s just that the error was in the opposite direction, more crucial to the outcome.
There’s a lot of BS circulating about this being a “Nader effect” election, i.e. Johnson and Stein siphoning off the votes that would have put Hillary over the top if they went into her column. In the case of the Johnson vote, the “if” part is extremely problematic. Trump’s gains in the last days of pre-election polling were correlated with Johnson’s losses. Stein’s share had collapsed to the point where it barely moved the needle. There is every indication that the Johnson vote was at the expense of the Trump, not the Clinton, vote. Had the remainder of the Johnson and Stein votes gone in their most likely portions to the Trump and Clinton columns, it would have been a net gain for Trump.
Empire is evil because it always works against local sovereignty, democracy and individual liberty. Anyone who believes in human liberation opposes Empire. Empire tends to lead to mono-culture, and the stamping out of the Other. Alexander’s conquests did not last his life, but they did open up freer trade of both goods and ideas East-West. Christianity is the result of Alexander’s conquests; part Hellenism, part Egyptian, part Buddhism and part Babylonian.
We are both right Babak, from our separate points of view. It all depends on which part of the compass you look from.
Pacifica,
” No Mainlanders to speak of, yet – and likely not many.”
I’m shocked, just shocked that the the Republic of China isn’t willing to let in millions from the Peoples Republic of China. Tell me, is their national health care just not as good as yours? Perhaps you could have your representative in the UN make a nice speech about it in NYC after Trump is inaugurated.
Thank you, David. Your detailed reply confirms my own estimate of the difference between Theresa May and Cameron, Blair et al. One of the things I like most about her is that she appears to be a ‘doer’ rather than a ‘talker’. As you imply, she is likely to achieve something for the ordinary people of Britain, rather than just for “the City”.
I also found engrossing your commentary on the Oxford graduates and the war.
Babak Makkinejad
What is your definition of superiority and why was the AH empire superior?
I am much closer to Earthrise’s view, that substantially it all depends on which side you are looking from. But I do not agree with Earthrise that empires per se are ”evil”, it all depends.
Jov, Earthrise, Babak Makkinejad,
The answer is I think quite simple. The forms of ‘legitimate authority’ – to pinch a term from BM – associated with ‘modernisation’ are commonly much more problematic than Western liberals, and leftists, are prepared to acknowledge.
In particular, Americans commonly find it difficult to reflect seriously on the fact that the overthrowing of monarchical authority did not always work out as well as it did in the rather special conditions of the ‘United States’ in other places.
Among many elements of the resulting misunderstandings, a critical one has to do with the understandings of nationalism. Two major theorists of this phenomenon – Elie Kedourie and Ernest Gellner – taught at the London School of Economics.
Their interpretations reflected their different origins. So Kedourie, a Jewish refugee from Baghdad, focused on nationalism as an ideological phenomenon, while Gellner, a Jewish refugee from Prague, linked it with industrialisation and the concomitant spread of a ‘high culture’ throughout society.
In some polities it was relatively easy for an existing ‘high culture’ to spread itself through a coherent territorial space, with people of different ethnicity assimilating. (My Welsh-speaking grandparents deliberately brought up their children to speak only English.)
In the Hapsburg Empire, this was impossible. The result was that a reasonably viable coexistence between different ethnic and religious groups was replaced by a vicious conflict between different aspirant cultures trying to carve out their own territorial spaces.
Out of this – and parallel developments in the Ottoman and Romanov empires – came a whole range of not altogether pleasant developments.
Among them: the First World War, the triumph of revolutionary communism in Russia, the triumph of Hitler’s version of ‘national socialism’ (actually a generalisation to the European level of the politics of Upper Bohemia) in Germany, the Second World War, and the Holocaust.
An outcome of all these developments, ironically, was that between them Hitler and Stalin turned Eastern Europe into a system of reasonably ethnically coherent states.
This, of course, involved the ‘ethnic cleansing’ of Germans from Poland and, as it then was, Czechoslovakia, as well as a small number of other unpleasant developments (ask TTG.).
As American – and I am ashamed to say, British – liberals are incapable of understanding any of this history, they are now involved in supporting an attempt by ‘Austro-Hungarian’ Ukrainians to impose their version of Ukrainian identity on the whole territorial space of the country created by Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev.
A characteristic feature of ethno-nationalist struggles is that those prepared to fight are the most fanatical.
So it is hardly surprising that the ‘Azov Battalion’ – the sharp end of Ukraine’s fighting forces in the current civil war – has an emblem which combines lightly transformed version of the Wolfsangel and the ‘Black Sun’ symbol.
Of these, the former was the symbol of the ‘Das Reich’ SS division.
The latter was set in the floor of the ‘Obergruppenführersaal’ in the castle of Wewelsburg, which Himmler intended as the centre of the new ‘SS world’– the ‘Thousand Year Reich’.
This was to happen, following the destruction of the Jewish ‘Weltfeind’, and the elimination of between thirty and forty-five million Slavs, in order to create ‘Lebensraum’ – an autarkic German empire which would be prepared for the coming struggle for ‘world domination’ with the United States.
This was what, to my parents’ generation, was the ‘heart of darkness’. And now we are allied with them. The shame of it is quite difficult to take.
But these things cut different ways. Not long ago, for the first time in my life, I visited Vienna, and met up again with the German lady who was my mother’s ‘au pair’ when I was an infant – not long after the war’s end.
We talked, among other things, about the funeral, in 1989, of the Empress Zita – the last Empress of Austria-Hungary – at which she was present. And she described the ‘Anklopfzeremonie’ at the ‘Kapuzinergruft’. I had every sympathy with her nostalgia.
Austro-Hungarian Empire provided a uniform system of the Laws and Regulation that accommodated a diverse group of ethno-linguistic groups within a dominant and superior Germanic culture of Austria.
One the eve of World War I, it was a system of representative government in which a very small state apparatus governed the empire with a light touch. It was a state with a historical pedigree, with tradition and customs going back hundreds of years.
In that empire, many Jews had found places for themselves in her cosmopolitan culture, state apparatus, commerce and other areas of human activity. Indeed, in addition to those Yiddish speakers, many other nationalities could look forward to a gymnasium education and full participation in the life of the empire; political, scientific, commercial, military etc.
What followed its dissolution was dictatorship, ethnic cleansing, murder, chaos, and mayhem – for decades. For the Yiddish speakers and Jews, it was death that followed the dissolution of the empire.
Now, what we have left is a bunch of small pathetic little dukedoms – with their silly little flags – trying to assume a pose that puts them on the same level as Germany or UK or France. With Austria and within Austro-Hungarian Empire, they were some bodies – outside of it they are of no consequence; to be dominated by Germany for the foreseeable future.
In specific case of the Platonic Academy, it did not move East; there was a chance it could but the demise of the Great King and the Chaos that followed prevented that.
The Platonic Academy finally moved East when the Byzantine Emperor closed them and the scholars fled to Sassanid Persia – which served later as the seed from which Muslim Civilization arose.
I do not understand your enthusiasm for Alexander of Maceodon; it is like demonstrating enthusiasm for the Mongols and Chengiz Khan.
I have the feeling that you see the Austro-Hungarian empire through the eyes of Joseph Roth’s book – The Emperor’s Tomb (Die Kapuzinergruft) (1938), and can’t deny that you have a point in many things – rule of law (although the laws were not uniform), the possibility for education, briefly AH was a modern society in many aspects.
But, on the other hand , the government was not representative, and the Habsburgs were the rulers (although Hungarians did sometimes have their politicians representing the Monarchy – e.g. Grof Andrassy). When the Habsburg power would be contested, they would use differences and hostilities between different people (e.g. 1848. and the Hungarian revolution, when the Habsburgs using excellent diplomacy directed the Hungarian military strength towards the Serbs and Croats and vice versa) to stay the sole rulers.
As far as I know there were no deaths of Jews after the collapse of the Empire. Only after the Anschluss and later Holocaust did the Jewish suffering commence. In Hungary, all through out the WW2 many Jews were not murdered nor persecuted, but sadly the systematic deportations to Auschwitz of Hungarian Jews started in 1944, as the war was coming to an end. How can you be sure that if the AH monarchy survived, it would have protected the Jews from the Nazis?
And if you are a Chezh, Slovak, Slovenian, Serb , Muslim from Bosnia– what is the difference if you and your people are dominated by a German elite from Austria (100 years ago) or by a German elite living in Germany (now)?
Austro-Hungaria was an empire nor better nor worse than other empires at that time, and there is no need to idealise it, which is what you are doing. The irony is, that this empire signed it’s own death sentence when it insisted on the ”Drang nach Osten” policy, not capable of any compromise (Russia and Serbia would have swallowed the anexation of Bosnia), and with its elites wanting war.
Thank you for your comments.
I have not read that book, my opinions are solely based on my own variegated readings of European history.
No doubt, Austro-Hungarian Empire had many defects and problems and issue; all states do. But, in my opinion, compared to what followed – to this day – it was a superior political organization. And in 1914, had the Empire lived, it could have reformed; at the same time in US they were lynching African-Americans etc.
You ask what is the difference between being dominated by Germany now or by Austrian Germans then. It is the nature of that domination; Oster Reich was not run by Prussians, it was a qualitatively different ethnic group of German speaking people. Furthermore, the various constituents of the empire could exercise limited power to alter the policies of the empire domestically. Magyars were not a foreign people, for example, in the Empire; they were part and parcel of the state.
From the end of the Empire, through World War II, to the present we have seen what these various peoples like Chezh, Slovak, Slovenian, Croat, Serb , Muslim from Bosnia, Slovenian, Polish, Romanian, Hungarian, have accomplished in their respective duchies.
For let us not lose sight of what they all have become, small parochial states, insular, forever afraid of their neighbors – large and small – and with no control over their collective or individual destiny.
Yes, they fulfilled their nationalistic dreams, but at what price? And was being ruled from Vienna worse than being ruled from Brussels?
I am interested in issues of governance of human beings; seemed to me that Austro-Hungarian Empire was a rather successful construct for managing the affairs of that part of the world.
I agree with you that the Imperial Foreign Policy should have not been kept in the hands of the Court; that was the fatal shortcoming.