"Today the differences reached the peak when Sistani dropped a bomb by rejecting federalism and thus rejecting the constitution of the Kurdish-Sheat alliance putting the current ruling parties in a difficult position."
The Sunni Arab members of the constitution drafting panel have refused to sign the document before it goes to the citizenry for referendum.
Now his eminence, the Ayatollah Sistani has cut the Shia heads of the SCIRI and Dawa parties loose over the issue of federalism. (Presumably he wants to be "grand guide" of the whole country, not a Shia enclave)
Others, more realistically, see that the Sunni Arabs are not going to "play ball" and that their chances of controlling the whole country are minimal even if they had direct Iranian support in the future.
For the sake of argument, believe that the referendum date has passed with much wiggling of purple thumbs in the Kurdish and Shia populations. The US government has declared the result "another stirring and moving example of the courage of the IRAQI PEOPLE." The running dog media have woof, woofed in response. The command in Iraq has declared that Iraqi troops are doing extremely well in working up to a level at which they can replace US troops. (I’ve lost track of what they call the command in Iraq these days. So little time, so many acronyms)
If the Sunni leaders do not accept the constitution as the "social compact" that Zal talks about, and the nationalist, Baathist, mostly Sunni Arab guerrillas don’t accept it then, the war will go on with the goal of gradually weakening the Shia run Iranian backed government to the point that it fall of its own weight. There will be lots of sympathy and assistance from all over the Sunni Muslim World. The Sunni logic will be that we Americans have a poor "track record" for persistence and that eventually the American public will force withdrawal, and then it will be a new ball game.
LTG Petraeus and co. are building a "New Model Army" in Iraq. Who are these soldiers? Who are the new police? What is the percentage of them who are Sunni Arabs? Anyone who thinks that predominately Shia troops and police are going to do anything other than "fan the flames" of the rebellion by trying to operate in Sunni Arab territory is just kidding himself.
And what of the Shia? Moqtada al-Sadr is back, having made his point last year, and he does not want the country "federalized" either. Why Not? Well, he is a young man. Who knows what the future might hold for him?
The constitution? Irrelevant at best, destructive at worst.
What should be done? In the end we will have to take direct control of negotiations among the three contesting parties and give up a failed experiment in "democracy" building. If we do not do that ,then we face the prospect of an Iraq permanently at war with itself This place would be the focus of increased sectarian strife in the region. The additional risk of seeing a "rump Shia Iraq with a common frontier and interest in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait should be worrisome.