“Turkey’s elections: What’s at stake?”

First-time voters make up 8% of the Turkish electorate and their votes will be decisive

It would therefore be something of a fantasy for Washington to believe that if Erdoğan leaves power a new Turkish government would change all that and “return to the West.” Indeed, there are many in Washington and NATO who believe that Turkey’s increasingly important ties with Russia and China actually constitute grounds for its expulsion from NATO — as a “rogue state” in Washington’s parlance.

But the blunt reality is that NATO needs Turkey more than Turkey needs NATO. Turkey, after all, has serious regional clout and controls access to the Black Sea through the Straits of the Dardanelles, which constitute Russia’s sole access to the Mediterranean and southern seas. Indeed, Turkey’s geographical location is almost omni-azimuth.

If the opposition coalition wins this weekend’s elections, we can anticipate a new government to move to slightly mollify NATO’s discomfort with Turkey’s foreign policy, such as by rapidly ratifying Sweden’s membership in NATO that has been blocked by Erdoğan. A new government will similarly seek to improve ties with the EU in general after years of considerable friction. (That does not, of course, mean that Turkey will achieve EU membership any time soon.) 

But, over the past two decades, Erdoğan has irrevocably expanded Turkey’s foreign policy vision, and there is no going back to the old NATO Turkey. From now on, Ankara  will resist any pressure to subordinate its geopolitical range and freedom of action to Western interests. And although Ankara will work far more closely with both Russia and China in the region, it will not yield its independence in the new Eurasia to either of those two powerful states either. And despite centuries of somewhat prickly relations with Iran, Turkey has developed a modus vivendi with Tehran which is likely to persist and possibly prosper under new Eurasian conditions.

All of this unfolds against the backdrop of the marked decline of Washington’s ability to call the geopolitical shots around the world. That will hold true in spades for Washington’s ties with Turkey. So, while there may be some brief “honeymoon” between any new Turkish government and the West, the new geopolitical realities of an expanded Turkish vision and its Eurasian focus now represent the hard new facts of world politics.

That is even more true as Turkey bids to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economic association (along with Iran and Saudi Arabia) — an emerging power bloc that encompasses a large proportion of the global economy and population that is shifting geopolitical power to a potent new “Global South.”

Should Erdoğan lose this election, lots of Turks and most Western governments will be delighted. But most Turks also harbor deep suspicions of Western political intentions towards Turkey. So to expect that a leadership change will fundamentally change Turkey’s long-term geopolitical orientation would be a mistake — and represent a failure to grasp the rapid shift of the balance of power of Eurasia in the world today.


Comment:  These are the conclusions of Graham E. Fuller, a former spook,  writing in “Responsible Statecraft.” Makes perfect sense to me. No matter who wins, Türkiye, as they now prefer to be called, will go her own way. She will alternately piss off and please all the world’s power centers as she sees fit. Get used to it.

The election itself will be one to watch and analyze. Erdogan said he will recognize the results of the election whether he wins or not. The polling sites are being heavily monitored. It will be difficult to monkey with the election results there. Ergodan is making claims that the US is interfering with the election. We seem to be openly cheering for his opponent. Whether that will influence the Turkish voters one way or the other is debatable. If we are doing anything beyond stating our preferences, we are making a mistake. It will be found out and it will blow up in our faces. Erdogan’s opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is definitely offering the Turkish people a choice, but he remains a Turkish nationalist. Our best course is to sit back and go with the flow.


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36 Responses to “Turkey’s elections: What’s at stake?”

  1. Fourth and Long says:

    Timely and astute. It’s huge news for days on Ru Telegram, for example.Due to the magnificent photographic illustration provided above by TTG, we feel gratified and compelled to provide free of .. these two links from different sources.

    Link 1:
    Boring. In Russian but graciously translated for you. The title is: Missile attack on Luhansk is beneficial for the British Empire. If it sounds stupid and old-time commie, it really isn’t and bares careful reading because it attempts to discuss things on several levels. But absolutely boring.

    Link 2:
    Not boring. Inflammatory perhaps? Some of us, though not trained neurologists with long clinical experience don’t think so at all. Rather it’s topical. Why? Reasons: The pic above with the pretty ladies screaming excitedly just begs for ..? Yes, something 1-Female 2-Raving with excitement and 3- Related to elections.
    Kamala Harris – slurred speech, exaggerated motor function, words, words, coconuts, words.
    Make sure to retweet to share & comment with your thoughts!
    Oh happy happy day. It looks like someone already won our bonus prize! They noticed that President Erdogan’s main competitor, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is a _______.
    That’s right, a Kemalist.
    Trick question 1: What is US Vice President Kamala Harris’s first name? 6 letters. 3 minutes.
    Follow up trickier question for those who got trick question 1 right under the time limit. What’s that got to do with the topic here?

    • English Outsider says:

      Your link 1, F&L. Read in conjunction with Putin’s recent Victory Day speech.

      There are two stories for us in the West, two main stories that is.

      The first is that we’re coming to the assistance of a small country attacked by a more powerful country. And we must do that, not only because it’s the right thing to do, but because if we don’t stop that more powerful country it’ll feel emboldened to attack other countries in Europe. “We must fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here.”

      The second story is that the West used the neo-Nazis in Kiev to threaten the Donbass. And that Putin moved to avert that threat. That relatively minor intervention ballooning into a life and death defence of Russia against a determined and perilous attack by the combined West. The Ukrainians the patsy used for that attack.

      Never mind who in the West believes what story. Very few the second, almost all the first, my impression. What is the story they believe in Russia?

      The second, of course, for most Russians though by no means all. That is the story in that Victory Day speech.

      We in the West reinforce that second story for them every time we escalate the conflict. Are there any other examples of a war where we strengthen the enemy the harder we attack? Dunno, but that’s what happening here.

      That’s what I take away from that link you very kindly provided.

      • Billy Roche says:

        E.O. you keep settin’em up and I’ll keep knocking ’em down. Ukraine d/n start the war, Russia did. Ukraine is not escalating, it is trying to defend herself. The west is providing weapons to help Ukraine remain independent of a Russian colonial oppressor.
        All/Any escalation will end when Russia sends its troops home … into Russia. BUT, what I want to know is what everyday Russians think about the killing. Do they think its justified? Why? Do they think Ukrainians “belong” to Russia?

        • English Outsider says:

          Bill – we might just possibly disagree on one or two points! But I believe our disagreement is irrelevant. What matters is what our fellow Westerners believe. And what the Russians believe.

          Early last year I found myself in a similar disagreement with my own countrymen. In truth, I was in a minority of one. So around that time I knocked up a summary on an English comment section.

          1, This war was deliberately provoked by the West. Short of nuking Moscow we couldn’t have done much more to get the Russians rolling.

          2. It’s as much a civil war as international. The Donbas, perhaps other areas of the old Ukraine, is no longer prepared to be ruled from Kiev. That, whatever Moscow or Washington do or say.

          3. The military war was won as soon as started. Obvious.

          4. Not so obvious is how that was done in practice. We’re looking, in terms of economy of force, disposition of troops and equipment, operational flexibility, integration of military with political aims, at an operation the military historians will be studying admiringly for decades.

          5. It follows that Western attempts to prolong the war merely condemn more Ukrainian PBI to death. Our host has permitted me to write in on this point several times. It’s one I feel strongly about. If the neocon ghouls want to get at Russia this murderous sacrifice of our proxies is no way to do it.

          6. Nevertheless the war itself is something of a side issue overall. It served as a means of getting the European public on side with the sanctions war. None thought the Russians could lose the war itself. The politicians put their money on breaking Russia with sanctions.

          7. The sanctions war was lost soon after February. It won’t break Russia. It’ll break us.

          8. The politicians know they’ve failed. They’re desperately trying to back off. But if the general public is as war hungry as those comments quoted above indicate, “We the people” won’t let them.

          A few points I got wrong. Doesn’t one always?

          – I never guessed we’d escalate as much as we have.

          – I still believe that the politicians know this Ukrainian venture won’t fly – but they’re not so much “backing off” as setting the scene for Cold War II.

          – I now believe Scholz was as much behind the disaster as Biden.

          – And I entirely misunderstood the Germans.

          On that last, a key point, I thought once they found out that Scholz, and Merkel before him, had been backing neo-Nazis they’d recoil in horror. “Nazi”, in the Germany I was used to, being a big NO.

          They didn’t. Still working that one out.

          But what I’m saying above is not that I’m right and the majority is wrong. I’m saying that almost all of us in the West believe my take is 100% wrong. We most of us think that the Russians are in the wrong and must be stopped.

          Public opinion is as much a factor in war as the number of tanks or whatever this or that side has. The Western politicians have Western public opinion on their side.

          But the Russian government seems to have Russian public opinion on its side. And the public opinion there is different. They have a different story. In their story the Ukrainians are little more than the patsies and it’s us that’s the foe.

          What I was attempting to say is that the more the West escalates in the Ukraine, the more we confirm that Russian public opinion. The more we escalate the more they believe their story – that this is not merely a local war but a life and death struggle against the combined West.

          And the more confirmation they get of that – our recent supply of Storm Shadow is one such confirmation – the more determined they’ll be.


          Now I’m going back to see if there’s anything more about the beavers. I’m envious of TTG. He has a stream. All I’ve got is an intermittent rivulet and a few damp patches, both of which dry up in summer. No chance of beavers and we no longer have those anyway. Lots of badgers, which are animals I like a lot but are, in practice, a confounded nuisance.

  2. Whitewall says:

    If things go against Erdy, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him claim ‘irregularities’ in the count. That ‘coup’ against him a few years ago seemed awfully fishy.

  3. different clue says:

    Perhaps if the NATO powers decide to expel Turkey from NATO, Turkey might turn around and announce the formation of a new alliance to be called NEATO ( North East Atlantic Treaty Organization) which would be open to any NATO member who would leave NATO to join NEATO.

    Maybe such an action would never be more than an apple of discord, a cat among the pigeons, a mischevious trick, an act of diplomatic trollery, etc.

    Still, what if an expelled-from-NATO Turkey were to actually do it?

  4. Babeltuap says:

    NATO is finished. They have to put massive amounts of weapons on the ground but they can’t even do that enough to matter. They better start conscription soon and absolutely for the US. The US draft should have started a year ago. If anyone on here has sons and daughters they must be shoved to the front lines ASAP. Freedom is not free. Time to pay for sitting around talking about it. I’m not going. Disabled Veteran. I already fought in your BS wars. Time to sacrifice your own offspring. Do that then comeback to the table. Was it worth it? Fighting over a wasteland when your own borders are wide open. Sometimes we have to experience these things on a very personal level. I know I do living close to the US border.

    • TTG says:


      NATO was on its way to being finished until Putin breathed new life into it. It has renewed purpose and has grown. It will be different, but it is far from finished.

    • Fred says:


      The US can’t possibly have a draft, that would result in an influx of people Joe Biden says are racists, i.e. “White supremacists, that he and Barack did nothing about in 8 years (other than restructuring the senior military leadership). Just read what the AFCOS, and likely successor to Milley, has to say:

      America’s border, unlike Ukraine’s, are not considered something our elites need to defend.

      TTG, the US monetary contributions to Zelensky’s government in well past $140 billion with zero oversight (not including weaponry). The combined contributions of the rest of NATO in less than a third of that. Trump was right about their freeloadiing on our backs. He was wrong about our needing to stay obligated to defending corrupt European governments, i.e. NATO.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      The people coming over the border ARE the future draftees. And factory workers in case reindustrialisation takes place. It’s government policy. It would be suicidal to any election campaign so it will never be acknowledged. The legacy Whites of old America are not reproducing fast enough or they are obese from the horrific food oils and sugars in everything and or they are drug addicted and in and out of the penitentiary systems. If you can make it from a South American jungle or favella to the Texas border you are probably tough enough for basic training. The rulers of this world are no different than the rulers who brought millions of enslaved Africans to the new world and poisoned the North American native peoples with smallpox. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Hilary Clinton, Anthony Blinken and Jeffrey Epstein and their masters on Wall Street and the City of London are members in excellent, not good – excellent standing of Count Dracula’s secret society of Little Pizza Boy abductors & Other Assorted Perversions for which he is the master of ceremonies and annual membership almanac editor and design consultant which also provides lifelike standins and doubles for celebrities, statesmen and VIPs which can even be safely wheeled out of closely guarded prisons after faked suicides reported the same day in newspapers and TV shows which he controls from his remote Carpathian system of Alpine Castles and nearby dungeons. The amount of care this society’s members have for people like me and you is less than any number you pick if that number you picked happens to equal Zero multiplied by itself 35o,000,000,00o times and absolutely nothing more. And that’s if the jokes are limited to positive numbers only, don’t forget.

      And do you know what the first question is, usually but not necessarily asked by Count Dracula himself, asked at every meeting, secret of course, of Count Dracula’s Annual Little Pizza Delivery Boy Abductors & Assorted Other Perversions Almanac Editors Society is? And if so do you know the correct answer each time? Of course you do. “Greetings, oh thieving and swindling, lying and murdering perverts and delivery boy abductors! Now all together after the count of 3, what’s the most wonderful thing about us? Is it that all the Newspapermen and newspaper women, all the TV and talkshow hosts and all the … are members here!? Hahaha?” Laughter and giggles, and the Queen of giggles says “oh no no no great Count Dracula, teeheehee, it’s nice but that’s not the best thing about us not by a long shot, oh isn’t great to be here though ..”

      Tune in tomorrow for our next episode: “Yes,” shouted the assembly of perverts and monsters, “it’s that our victims think we are the ones who are going to help them!” — piano and vocal accompaniment by Ray Charles, Burt Bacharach, Lady Haha and Michael Jackson with his group the ..

  5. Sam says:

    It is not just Turkey who had an election this weekend. Thailand had one too and the election results are very interesting. However, there too the outcome is uncertain. Entrenched power does not easily cede their gravy train.

    Thailand’s opposition parties secured by far the largest number of votes in national elections, trouncing parties allied with the military and setting the stage for a flurry of deal-making in a bid to end nearly a decade of conservative, army-backed rule.

    The liberal Move Forward party and the populist Pheu Thai Party were far out in front with 99% of votes counted, but it’s far from certain either will form the next government, with parliamentary rules written by the military after the 2014 coup skewed in its favour.

    To rule, the opposition parties will need to gain support from members of the junta-appointed Senate that has sided with military parties and gets to vote on who becomes prime minister and form the next administration.


    Our situation is not too dissimilar. The big exception being the ruling “junta” is far more clever and ruthless in comparison with the voter. They don’t use raw naked military power in the streets. They have successfully been able to divide the voter to be deeply committed to one side or the other of an issue or political duopoly emotionally. Rendering them unable to see the forest from the trees. The trillions borrowed from the next generations are parceled through the patronage networks. They’ve even tested more draconian and authoritarian measures in warrantless mass surveillance and the use of these secret powers to manipulate constitutional rule of law. And their dry run of security state tactics by essentially putting all school kids in home detention for 2 years and rights of employment and travel restricted on their say so. Edict compliance. They made not even a fig leaf attempt to persuade with some semblance of evidence. And those that expressed dissent were easily canceled. Our northern neighbor froze access to funds of the truckers who had the temerity to pull the facade of the scam. Yet, there were no major complaints from the voters. In fact a significant percentage, like half, were all-in backing the use of such extra-constitutional governmental power to crush their perceived enemies.

  6. kodlu says:

    This analysis is spot on regarding Turkey’s direction. But Erdogan should have been consigned to the dustbin of history tonight.

    I was hoping he would be gone, but it seems we have to wait at least another two weeks. This is a failure for the opposition given nearly 100% inflation, mismanagement of Earthquake relief efforts, and still nearly half of Turkey’s citizens [though some recently converted Syrian refugees who were given citizenship have probably voted for him 99%] support his mixture of Islam, nationalism and authoritarianism. The opposition should have gone with a younger candidate, such as the Istanbul mayor Imamoglu.

    It’s looking like it will go to the second round. Erdogan did surprisingly well in the earthquake struck areas (other than Hatay/Alexandratta/Antioch). There are claims of results from pro-opposition secular middle class areas being held up by facile objections of Erdogan supporters, which is supposed to be skewing the result in Erdogan’s favour, at least temporarily. I think he wanted to have the option of claiming victory, if it looked like it might go the opposition’s way in the first round, and exhort his thugs to take over the streets for some intimidation. He backed off when it was clear the opposition may not make it above 50%.

    The problem is, he has eroded so many institutions over his 20 years of rule, that not many people believe the Election comission or other institutions of the state are impartial. Worse, his alliance clearly won the parliamentary elections, so even if the opposition wins the presidency, they will have to “cohabit” like the French. Plus the opposition platform was to move away from the powerful authoritarian presidency back towards a parliamentary system with a powerful Parliament.

    The Turkish Parliament in Ankara was set up by Mustafa Kemal as a powerful institution he used to fight Greek invaders in 1919-1922, since he understood that he needed some legitimacy beyond being the “hero of Dardanelles”. The fact that the Brits carried out an armed attack on the Ottoman Parliament in Istanbul, arrested some deputies but some escaped into Anatolia and joined the new Parliament helped the Kemalists even more. Erdogan has turned this institution into a rubber-stamping front office, no one respects MPs anymore, and everything revolves around his dictatorial “Palace”. This is bad and has led to lots of problems, among them his stupid ideas about “lowering interest rates to fight inflation” has totally destroyed the local currency. Since Turkey doesn’t have a tradition of a powerful judiciary, and the Parliament has been weakened we have a one-man Putinist state, minus the Gas and Oil income.

    Now, it looks unlikely that the move to the Parliamentary system will be possible in the near term.

  7. ked says:

    “Our best course is to sit back and go with the flow.”
    this may be the wisest foreign policy America could possibly promulgate since we let Dulles (both), Teller, Lemay (& their fellow travelers) set our tone for the swinging sixties & forever more. imagine being so confident in our power (kinetic & kapital), wisdom & popular consensus that we could refrain from jumping into the midst of every opportunity to instead prove our hubris, paranoia & hypocrisy. self-delusion can only fuel an empire so far… for what – a century or so?

  8. jonst says:

    I think it ludicrous to assert “NATO needs Turkey more than Turkey needs NATO’. But regardless of that…..whether NATO needs or does not need Turkey, it does ‘not have them’. They are unreliable. And in many cases down right hostile to both NATO and the EU. It is pure fantasy to count on them with, or without, the old man. But fantasy is in fashion these days, around Western Leadership.. Reduce their overt hostility around the edges, where you can, sure. But count on them in anything serious? Forget it. And that is no fault of the Turkish people. They simply have their own interests…..and they look after them. And one of those interests is to be in tension with the ‘West’, and ‘Western Interests’.

    • Billy Roche says:

      Jonst; I think you cut through the BS. You have it. The Europeans, in an unusual display of common sense, refused Turkeys request for membership into the E.U. I don’t know if they’d be smart enough to do that today. Years ago Col. Lang and I disagreed about the fundamental nature of Islam. I said they were intolerant killers of all non Muslims and their history screamed that. He said Islam is not all the same and I d/n understand its differences. Europe was not a natural environment for Turkey which has been pulled, since then, into the militant Muslim camp (w/Edogan’s encouragement). In their “natural” backyard they are confronted by their natural enemies. Arabs, Turks, Jews, Persians, and Kurds hate each other. Zoroastrians, Jews, and Muslims (S & S) simply c/n live and let live. They are all people of the desert, and they are all intolerant We need an “anthropologists” view point here. Any one know one?

      • TTG says:

        Billy Roche,

        Historically, no society has had a lock on tolerance or intolerance. You can pick and choose plenty of historical and even contemporary examples to support either view. I would suggest that intolerance of others may be more prevalent in environments of scarcity, but I haven’t studied that in detail. That could go with your people of the desert thesis. However, I can cite exceptions to this with desert societies that exhibit extraordinary hospitality towards strangers.

        • James says:

          Billy and TTG,

          I think there is a theory that plains nomads tend to be especially brutal because they are competing for scarce resources in territory with poorly defined boundaries and which they cannot easily defend. See (a) the Comanches, (b) the Mongols, (c) and yes, the Russians.

          As for tolerance – there seems to be a lot of intolerance these days from people who ostensibly preach tolerance.

      • Peter Williams says:

        BR, the Colonel was right. Islam is a very broad church. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-major-branches-of-islam.html and within each of those branches there is a huge diversity of practise. Siberian Tatars have been intermarrying with Russian Pravoslavie for over 500 years. They range from the extremely devote who will only read the Koran in Arabic, to the nominal Muslims who are happy to read the Koran in Russian. The Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) told his followers that all Children of the Book were to be treated with respect and kindness. There are sects like Wahhabism that wish to kill all non-Muslims, and Muslims that don’t follow their hardcore beliefs. The Chechens label them as Shaitan. Some of the most tolerant and hospitable people that I have met are Muslim. Some of the most intolerant and inhospitable people that I have met are so called Christians.

        • Billy Roche says:

          While neither a Christian, Jew, nor Muslim, I think one s/n confuse the practitioner w/t religion. The Books of the Jews had some pretty violent passages. In the books of the Christians Jesus said peace, love, and brotherhood. 600 years later Allah said kill the unbeliever, pluck out his eyes. Agnostic myself, I’m not sure Muslims would respect my unwillingness to accept Allah. Nowadays I feel safer w/Christians then Muslims.

  9. Fourth and Long says:


    Erdogan gets 49.35% of vote, Kilicdaroglu gains 45% with 100% ballot boxes counted — TV – World – TASS

    Erdogan gets 49.35% of vote, Kilicdaroglu gains 45% with 100% ballot boxes counted — TV
    Voter turnout reached a record high of 88.84%
    “As I was walking to Tangiers,
    I met a man with twenty ears ..”
    No, that’s not how it goes at all – you’re having your usual trouble remembering famous poems .. it’s:

    Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn’t there!
He wasn’t there again today,
Oh how I wish he’d go away!


    88.84 percent. Let’s see, 8 and 4 are perfect powers of 2, 8 is 2x2x2 and 4 is 2×2. So the 3 eights and 1 four make 9 plus 2 or eleven powers of 2. Or 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 if you wrote them all out which equals 2,048. Is there anything unusual about that? No, in case you noticed, 512 and 16 are also perfect powers of 2, so they don’t always result in base 10 expressions whose digits are themselves perfect powers of two, because neither 5 nor 6 are.

    I’m not sure I see what..

    No? That’s quite allright. But do you happen to remember the precise calendar date on which the so called “Special Military Operation” began?

    Wasn’t it February 22, 2022?

    No it wasn’t, that was the day of the announcement and humiliating dressing down of everybody of rank in the Russian government before the entire assembled observing world. You are trying to remember two days after that or ..

    Yes, yes, and I suppose you’re going to say I also didn’t notice that February is the second month which would make the date in one format 02/24/2022which would make 7 powers of two, or 128 if multiplied out. But if you don’t mind me asking..

    Asking if I didn’t think that that episode might possibly have hurt the sense of dignity, pride and feelings of everyone that you’d suspect the Russian president would have to rely on if his Special Military Operation was to have any hope of success going forward from that date?

    You’re not Minnie the Masterful Mind-Reading AI Chatbox are you?

    No, but now that you are attempting to be funny may I suggest you work in the word “Mnemonic” rather than “Masterful” next go round? It would..

    Something like Mmemonic Mindy the Mind-Reading AI Chatterbox Chatbot rather than ..

    Yes. Mindy, not Minnie.
    We interrupt to announce that contestant John Holmes of Greater Johnsonville County, Johnson City, (or as we used to sing “My Name is John Johnson I come from Wisconsin” just to remind ourselves that he was a US Army Signal Corpsman if we didn’t want to say his real name) is the winner of the Award for best answer to today’s secret question “If you remove from the name Kilicdaroglu each and every but only the letters which when missing would leave the name Kodlu as a remainder, are there any interesting words you can spell using only the letters you have removed?”

    His entry was the simple 7 letter word “i l i c a r g.”

    Prepare yourselves then for our upcoming grand prize when we award the readers who can answer to our satisfaction these two questions:

    Complete so as to form an English word: C a r g _ or if you prefer: argo__

    Complete so as to form an English word: ili___, or if you prefer: ilic__

    • TTG says:


      Every time you go off on one of your numerological vision quests, I hear this tune getting louder and louder.

      Trouble, oh we got trouble, Right here in River City! With a capital “T”
      That rhymes with “P”
      And that stands for Pool

      • Fourth and Long says:

        Sorry, I omitted the link from Tass at the top. The 88.84% was printed on their Eng internet edition early this morning. My mistake. In another similar post I saw the opponent’s votes reported as being 44.48% of the total, a simple symmetric inversional substitution. The letter stuff with the names is real btw, psychotic maybe but real.

        I hate to reveal another secret to the assorted gathering especially the Russians but their valiant leader was played by whoever pulls the strings of soccer world cup championships. The rest of the world still uses the incorrect term “football” which is what we do in our stadiums during NFL season and for example the superbowl. Aren’t you sick of them making that stupid mistake endlessly? They can’t seem to learn anything. It’s Soccer! Not football, Soccer. I’ll be accused of exceptionalism. Good. Keep calling Soccer what it isn’t really supposed to be called. And good luck.

        You’ll get it at once and probably have known so for years but for the sportsfans I’ll explain- first here’s a Telegram post this AM from https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/913
        Another strike on Lugansk with long-range cruise missiles, most likely an Anglo-French-made Storm Shadow. The blows were delivered on the building of the former aviation school for navigators (VVAUSh), in which the military personnel of our group were located.

        The delivery of these missiles to Ukraine can seriously affect the situation at the front, since these missiles with a range of 250 to 300 km can effectively hit headquarters, ammunition depots and personnel quarters in our deep rear. At the same time, the UK is currently supplying Ukraine with an export version of these missiles with a reduced range. If the UK starts supplying missiles that are in service with NATO countries, then the range of their use will increase to 500 km. Let me remind you that the successful use of high-precision American MLRS HIMARS missiles to destroy bridges across the Dnieper in the Kherson region last fall forced our troops to leave the right bank, surrender Kherson and evacuate to the left bank of the Dnieper.

        In addition to a long range, Storm Shadow missiles have low radar visibility, a powerful warhead of about 500 kg, and a correlation-extreme control system based on a digital terrain map with terrain envelope at ultra-low altitudes. It does not require external correction according to the signals of the GPS satellite navigation system. Those. it flies to the target essentially offline. And therefore, the use of electronic warfare against these missiles is useless. In addition, hundreds of such missiles are in service with NATO countries and they can easily meet all Ukraine’s requests for these weapons. For example, the British army is armed with about a thousand of these missiles. Therefore, the capricious mood of some of our military experts and military correspondents in relation to these missiles will not lead to anything good.

        In the current situation, in fact, the only way to deal with Storm Shadow is to destroy the aircraft carrying these missiles. Fortunately for us, Ukraine does not have so many of them yet, since for their use it is necessary to seriously modernize the existing MiG-29 and Su-27 aircraft, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have very few. But this is until the West began to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters. In this regard, we again recall the hitherto unsuppressed air defense system of Ukraine, which does not allow the use of our aviation in full. Both for the destruction of Storm Shadow carrier aircraft in the operational depth of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and for delivering strikes on airfields based on aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force.
        They awarded the Russian Federation the World Cup for 2018 so they could get their people in there to film everything up close for the preloaded pictures in the cruise missile targeting systems which don’t use GPS. They also have various spies in there for several years doing tons of YouTube videos. The most famous is Bald and Bankrupt, a 6 ft 3 in Brit who speaks Hindi, Russian and English of course, and admits to having been in the military. Huge number of YT vids with him going all through the former USSR making videos, even bedding some hot Ru or Belarus chicks. That tall, that multilingual so I’m guessing a PFC maybe first class, right? He even recorded himself being pulled in by an Eastern European country’s security who outright tell him he’s suspected of espionage. I guess he read Edgar Allen Poe’s “The Purloined Letter.” But the Rooskies just let him film film film. Must be that famous supersmart FSB which Putin headed and was formerly the KGB which he joined as a lad who made that determination.

        Yes 76 Trombones led the big parade. 19 39. Date of start of WW2 in Europe? Yes, but No. Integral Divisors of 76 other than itself, 1 and 2. Or does it suggest that next up is 5 4 3 2 1 ignition blastoff?
        What’s going on in the space between .. ? First the Maidan then Crimea. Then they give him the world cup – no that was when (?), the awards are years ahead of the games. You’d think someone in the whole huge FSB might have suspected something. “Toppling Kiev, then we get the World Cup! But we have Crimea! All the while they load target data into low flying cruise missiles because we allow them to film our everything everywhere! Our respected partners! Don’t you realize we have weapons without analogue?”

        My only explanation is that the lizard controllers told them (and us too) that Epophis will destroy earth by 2065 if not in 2026 anyway and if not the seaboard cities are gone anyway due to rising sea levels so nothing matters anyway. And they believed that too. Don’t forget to study the video of our Vice President talking about her mother and coconuts. Is the Royal name Elizabeth an abbreviation for Liz – Lizard? Have they departed for their home planet? Why does the father of the atomic bomb and colleague of geniuses Albert Einstein and John Von Neuman – the Hungarian physicist Leo Szilard – why is his last name an anagram for Lizards?

  10. Deap says:

    Published in 2008, the fanciful geo-political projections by author George Friedman in his book “The Next 100 Years – Forecast for the 21st Century” ultimately concluded the two winners 100 years from ten would be Mexico and Turkey. For similar reasons: mainly concentration of trainable manpower, and strategic crossroads locations for global trade.

    Since this book was written 15 years ago, and can now be measured against actual events, it would still be worth a re-read to see what trends he may have gotten right regardless of his faulty details.

    How will the growing population explosions in both Mexico and Turkey play out over the next few decades? How will their strategic global locations play out in their favor?

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Find the answers in our soon to be published book: Which Country Fell Into the Caribbean and Black Seas to a Greater Depth – Mexico or Turkey? by – The Same Guys Who Didn’t Do Anything to the Northstream Pipelines, at booksellers everywhere.

  11. Sam says:

    This is off-topic.

    Durham writes in the report: ‘Based on the evidence gathered in the multiple exhaustive and costly federal investigations of these matters, including the instant investigation, neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion in their holdings at the commencement of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation.’


    The conclusion of the special counsel investigation shows what many believed that the Crossfire Hurricane investigation including the Mueller special counsel was the use of national security prerogatives for domestic political purposes. Will anyone in law enforcement including DOJ be held to account? No chance.

    Trump failed himself and those buying his rhetoric of Draining the Swamp. This is the clearest example that he is All hat and no cattle.

    • TTG says:


      It was a national security investigation. Russia was actively doing stuff, like hacking the DNC and seeking contacts within the Trump campaign. His campaign manager spent years working for Yanukovych and Russian aligned oligarchs. Trump wasn’t a target until he fired Comey.

      I’m hoping willman puts something up soon. He’s the lawyer.

      • Sam says:


        What you describe is ancillary to the main focus of the machinations of the top echelons in law enforcement and national intelligence.

        Durham concluded that claims about Clinton’s attempts to smear Trump received less scrutiny than allegations about her opponent, even though they were serious enough to be taken to President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

        Durham admitted that the claims were not corroborated or verified, but compares it with the now-discredited Steele Dossier, outlining Trump ties to Moscow, which formed the basis of further investigations.

        ‘For example, [an FBI intelligence analyst] stated that he could not recall anything that the FBI did to analyze, or otherwise consider the Clinton Plan intelligence, stating that it was “just one data point,” he concluded.

        ‘This stands in sharp contrast to its substantial reliance on the uncorroborated Steele Reports, which at least some FBI personnel appeared to know was likely being funded or promoted by the Clinton campaign.’


        Rod Rosenstein testified to Congress that he signed the FISA affidavit without “reading the evidence”. After now reading it he wouldn’t sign it as the Steele Dossier, the basis for the affidavit was known to have been paid by the Clinton campaign. Of course he initiated the Mueller machination. Trump of course also didn’t use the prerogatives of his office to declassify all the materials for release to the public to evaluate all these machinations.

        • blue peacock says:

          PR exec who called Trump a ‘mad man’ was behind false ‘golden showers’ claims: Durham report reveals Donald never stayed in Moscow suite at center of salacious story – and how FBI wanted to keep paying Steele dossier source $300K AFTER he lied



          The real collusion was between the Hillary campaign and the FBI/DOJ/NSA nexus. Trump was the perfect foil as he was so hapless. But….this is not about Trump. Instead this is about how far the Deep State have gone. For all intents & purposes the US hasn’t been a constitutional republic for many decades now under both political parties.

          From Adm. Poindexter’s Total Information Awareness and Iran-Contra under Reagan to the direct involvement of the national security intelligence apparatus in domestic politics and propaganda in the Trump Russia Collusion and Hunter laptop as Russian disinfo is as clear as day despite the obfuscations. The ruling “junta” as you labeled them have demonstrated that they can act with impunity as there are no consequences and none will be held to account. The reality is that Jefferson’s & Adam’s & Madison’s constitution and the experiment in limited government has been long over. As the Church committee discovered in the 70s, our national security apparatus have long crossed the boundary of lawlessness.

          • Sam says:


            Two weeks ago, we learned it was CIA itself — not just 51 “former intelligence officials” — which engineered the lie that the Biden laptop was “Russian disinformation.”

            This means we know for sure the US Security State directly manipulated 2 consecutive national elections.


            I agree with you & Glenn Greenwald here that the national security apparatus has “crossed the boundary of lawlessness “ for a long time. Unfortunately the Church committee investigation didn’t reform the system to provide transparency. State secrets are always used to hide malfeasance. The 9/11 attacks enabled the national security apparatus to increase their power multiple fold and their ability to directly interfere in domestic affairs.

            The American voter doesn’t care as they keep re-electing the same cast of characters from the duopoly. Even the “supposedly maverick” Trump hired his entire administration from the same Swamp.

      • Fred says:


        Still pushing the Hilary line eh? Trump was always the target, that was just the excuse. “National security ” was the cover line. The Democrats and crooked intel agents got away with it. Can’t wait to see “mostly peaceful” 2 and the new save Ukraine “Russia collusion ” stories this election season.

  12. Fred says:

    I wonder if GCHQ, Hilary, and the FBI will be interfering in this election like they did in 2016. Good thing Durham didn’t make the MSM.

    • Billy Roche says:

      Durham had better watch out. He may suddenly “disappear”. His report says what I have been saying for the past four years. America has a Dept of Injustice which gives directives to the FIB. Surveillance of American citizens is performed by the Central Domestic Intel. Agency. The W.H. coordinates the public organs of the socialist party (CBS,NBC, NYT, Wash Post, NPR, Balt. Herald), and the IRS takes orders to limiting the effectiveness of voices opposing socialism in the country. Elections have consequences. Are we happy now.

      • Fred says:


        Ukraine’s funding is quite safe, as are all the operatives of the left who sabotaged Trump and then put Biden into office four years later. No one is going after Durham nor is he going to refer anyone for criminal charges. Yes rigged elections have conequences and the left are happy. congrats on your new style, I wonder how long until it reverts to norm.

  13. AmberCat says:

    Turkey is not experiencing a population explosion.
    The Turks are in decline; any growth is among Kurds.

  14. P s c says:

    Ah, Graham E. Fuller. The man responsible for bringing to America the Tsarnaev brothers of the Boston Marathon massacre.
    Deep State personified. Further proof that our elites despise core-Americans and actively work to replace us with more malleable 3rd worlders.
    Our enemies are not in Moscow, Tehran or Peking.

  15. ked says:

    I’m reading some extraordinary narratives lacking extraordinary evidence. Appears Durham’s $6.5M+ effort was not unlike Comer’s recent work, “my dog ate the witnesses”.

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