What is Really Going on Ukraine? An Alternative Scenario

Ukrainian company reportedly wins contract to supply new ...
Ukraine Ground Radar

The Western media is filled with stories of the brave Ukrainian people rising up to fight the evil Russians and the Russians are paying a terrible toll, or so we are told. But if you step back and look at what is actually transpiring you will note the following:

  • Unlike the U.S. “shock and awe” unleashed on Baghdad in 2003, which caused significant civilian casualties and destroyed infrastructure and damaged power grids and destroyed bridges, the Russian military is avoiding hitting population centers. The power is still on in Kiev and Kharkov last I checked.
  • You are not seeing raging battles in the streets of Kiev or Kharkov between Ukrainian and Russian military forces.

Some believe this indicates Putin’s troops are bogged down and making little progress. But I think there is an alternative explanation. First, Russia has not deployed its most sophisticated weaponry. It remains in place in Russia on the Ukrainian border but showing no signs as of this writing of being activated. Second, little attention is being paid to eastern Ukraine where the bulk of the Ukrainian Army is deployed. Jacob Dreizin offers some important insight on this:

You won’t hear this on CNN, but Putin’s Army of Darkness, in the most complex and ambitious ground maneuver operation since World War 2, following the Soviet “deep war” playbook, is also working on cutting off the Ukrainian army group in the Donbass from Kiev.  This is by far the most capable (or only capable) large portion of the Ukrainian army.  Yesterday, its main reserves of diesel fuel were destroyed from the air.  It will soon be cut off and immobile.

Once that happens, the entire Donbass front collapses (they will no longer have a “front”), and BILLIONS of dollars in U.S.-funded or U.S.-supplied weaponry will be captured almost without a battle.  (To be clear, it’s almost all U.S. funded or supplied—even most of the Soviet vintage stuff was bought and shipped in from Poland, Czechia, etc. by the CIA, “off the books” but well documented in videos of tank trains crossing the border into Ukraine, in 2015-2016.)

The Russians have finally entered Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, very close to the Russian border.  Previously, they had bypassed it the same way that America bypassed every town in southern Iraq to reach Baghdad in 2003.  On Saturday night, they finally wasted all significant, organized resistance with a rain of thermobaric death in the outskirts.  Today, they started to go in and mop up.  Of course, it’s not a job for one day.

The Ukrainian army is falling back (mostly in organized fashion) throughout the Donbass.  They have largely evacuated Mariupol, a very pro-Russian, major steelmaking and steel-shipping center (responsible for billions of dollars in exports) on the Sea of Azov.  The sole garrison in Mariupol is now said to be the Azov regiment, a group of bona fide, tattooed Nazis—you know, your typical Ukrainian democracy guys, the ones the MSM doesn’t tell you about, and our State Department prefers to ignore.  The kind of guys you must use to garrison a pro-Russian city that hates you.

The “real” army looks to be falling back to Dnepropetrovsk, about 60 miles west of Donetsk, if the Russians don’t cut them off—that’s now the big “if.”  Either way, they’ll get hit badly from the air.

They are leaving behind lots of brand spanking new, British and American weaponry.  I wish I had time to make a photo collage for you.  It turns out, the stuff doesn’t work well.  Among other things, you have to charge the battery on those Javelins or whatever.  No charge, no fire.  No one told them.  I guess they had so many dumped on them, it was not realistic to plug them all into the wall, and sit there and wait.  I can relate, I don’t even like waiting to charge one new smartphone.

The Ukrainian Air Force, what is left of it, is now flying on Helen Keller terms. It seems that Ukraine combat aircraft rely on ground controlled radar to conduct air to air intercepts. Guess what the Russians obliterated in the first hours of their invasion on Wednesday? If you said, “ground controlled radar” you are a winner.

Without that radar the Russians have air superiority. They have castrated the Ukrainians ability to provide close air support and disrupt Russian air cover. They are flying blind (if they are flying and can find an operational air field.) Then there are the lines of communication for the Ukrainian Army. Critical military fuel dumps are on fire and the ability of the Ukrainian Army to keep their tanks and trucks running is slipping away.

This perhaps explains the volte face of Zelensky in being willing to sit down with the Russians and try to negotiate an end to the evisceration of Ukraine’s military capability.

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63 Responses to What is Really Going on Ukraine? An Alternative Scenario

  1. Deap says:

    Does this now qualify as only the “tiny incursion” Biden promised Russia they could have for free, before Uncle Sam got really, really mad at Putin?

    Biden’s retelling of his mano a mano Battle for Ukraine in his SOTU address in a few days, will need your keen intelligence insights: if we continue to trust, but verify.

  2. Lowmire says:

    This is the correct assessment, which is why there is a blitzkrieg of sanctions, embargoes, international condemnations, and banking warfare. The Russians haven’t even engaged their navy; if they were losing as bad as the MSM wants you to believe, then cruise missiles would have been flying.

    The truth will be out soon enough, and the hope was that they could castrate Russia through their multi-pronged pressure campaign before that truth is exposed. Sadly, the US and its European cattle are doubling down and playing with an even bigger fire.

  3. jim ticehurst says:


    I Beleve That Russia with its 3 mile Long Convoy on the Edge of KIEV Now
    Will Begin Its Final Assault..At Dawn Tomorrow Monday 2/28/22
    Like They Did on Monday when All This Began,,

    The Media Has Advertised to The World That BIDEN will Begin Shipping
    Large Amounts Of Weapons through POLAND,,
    to The Resistance..Russia’s Dawn Attack would Negate that Shipment..

    • jim ticehurst says:

      No Excuses…

      • jim ticehurst says:


        Looks like It MAY BE PM….Not AM

        The Peace Parlay Is OVER..Ukraine Refused/ZELINSKY
        and Any One Else With Him..For What Ever Motive..

        That Russian Armor Column Is Lined UP;;;;
        Now 17 Miles Long..

        Im Sure Many In NATO Are Licking Thier LIPS
        and getting Itchy Trigger Fingers..So Much TEMPTATION

        Its ALL SAD..Really Sad..Those of US Here With Any HEART
        Understand The Inhumanity of All This ,,

        Its The Black Horsemen..And Riders In The Sky..

        Pray For PEACE,,,

  4. Deap says:

    Since a certain global clicktivist organization AVAAZ director was there at the very beginning of “covid” (bunking with Dr Neil Ferguson – of the Imperial College of Medicine covid hoax charts), one wonders how AVAZZ is clicking in on this situation.

    AVAAZ is all in for Team Ukraine, in order to save the world for democracy. Get your online progressive narrative, hot off the presses, from this one single source. Russia, Russia, Russia.


  5. akaPatience says:

    So much fake news is being tweeted and some of it’s even duping the MSM. I wonder who’s putting this stuff out there and creating these lies? There are just a few examples in this article, but I’ve seen a lot more:


    I hope those who are able to reveal and rebut this fakery don’t end up being censored for not falling into lockstep with the approved narrative, or as the POTUS calls it, the best story.

    • Deap says:

      WSJ this morning reports “Fierce Battle Waged in Communications”:

      Russia …..”.has wielded the Kremlin’s vast communications apparatus and an online army of trolls to portray Russian military as a peacekeeping force deployed to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians.”……

      Was this the army of trolls who recently tried to charge up Turcopolier Hill?

  6. Babeltuap says:

    Going to be a rude awakening for everyone (again) believing in legacy media. Russia has the most critical resource and the most nukes in the world. Just hoping my dictator here in the US ramps up oil production ASAP. Nobody is funny moneying their way out of this one.

    • Fred says:

      We’ve been reliably informed by the left for decades that “climate change ” is real and will kill us all in “12 years” minus however many it’s been since St. Greta began using that line. Biden’s first actions upon assuming office was to cancel all the Trump policies that made us energy independent. Their belief in that religion won’t change even as realty rears its ugly head. As to the Europeans and their need for natural gas, let them suffer and see if they can figure out how to hold their own elites responsible in an election.

      • JTMcPhee says:

        I wonder why the US military, a major spewer of emissions and user of petrochemicals and other resources, is so concerned about and planning for the changes in climate and resources that the hated lefty St. Gretas have been yakking about for all these years. https://time.com/6148778/us-military-climate-change/ Must be a bunch of weak-kneed pouffes in the Pentagram getting all riled up over nothing.

        Will be interesting to see how Russia’s West-policy-forced move toward autaurchy in so many sectors plays out in coming years. Of course in the meantime, Siberia is burning, even The NY Times says so: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/17/world/europe/siberia-fires.html

        Also thanks to Larry for honest reporting and analysis based on reality and untainted by Mighty Wurlitzer noise, and to pl for providing this asset.

  7. Pundita says:

    Larry, thank you so very much for this report. To let you know, the link for Jacob Dreizen’s article isn’t working.

  8. Fred says:

    A pincer movement to encircle a forward deployed army corps? Who would ever think of such a thing. It’s almost like someone read “Panzer Battles” by von Mellenthin, or the Russian versions of the same. I wonder if they have rainbows and D.I.E. in them like our modern ones?

  9. tedrichard says:

    step back and look at the larger picture, not the war in ukraine or any aspect of the battles being fought.

    look at the economy of the europe, the usa, russia…the world. facts are russia is a major provider of energy in all forms to the world, especially to europe which effectively casues the eu to turn off the lights or at least disconnect major industrial companies from the power grid if when nat gas stops flowing. russia provides titanium indispensable to usa aerospace, nickel, aluminum, plats group metals for cat converters and a raft of other things the west needs to operate.

    by doing what the west is doing they will in time crater their own economies and standard of living LONG before russia breaks a sweat if you study anything about the historic russian mentality towards their own security and what they are willing to put up with to obtain it. all those cheering the west on to punish those “subhuman russkies” for invading the paradisical and blessed ukraine democracy are going to look at the world differently once reality sets in and they experience first hand what their leaders have done to their life and standard of living. you think covid
    restrictions were unpalatable…they were merely an appetizer for whats coming.

    as its said be careful what you wish you may get it.

    plain truth is we on the planet are all connected and when a group of nations decides to punish one of the most important (resources, heavy advanced rockets, food) and largest nations on earth actions will have consequences.

    ””””””’the west is and will be demonstrated to be within a year or two economically screwed because of the actions they are taking now””””””””’

    when the dust from this settles the clear winners will be the russian/china partnership….and for giggles the chinese are no doubt watching closely how things are being done tactically because taiwan will be reabsorbed sooner not later into china and the west will have shot its wad by then.

  10. JoeC100 says:

    This view is consistent with what I am seeing from useful/reliable sources. The Donbass cauldron seems to be the main push against Ukraine’s army as most of it is apparently there – probably to mass for a major assault on LNR/DNR.

  11. English Outsider says:

    Larry – I still can’t see any answer to the question, how do the Russians imagine the recent military action will benefit them. It’s the question I put to TTG recently. What’s the end game here? For the Russians, what does winning look like?

    I had a go just now at breaking that question down. Any good?

    The Russians have two problems. What one could call the “Minsk problem”. And the “missile problem”. I don’t see the current military activity solving either.

    On the Minsk problem, we can be confident that the bombardment of the self-declared republics will end soon. The Ukrainian forces massed along the line of control are due for encirclement or surrender. That would already have happened had this not been an invasion lite.

    But there was more to Minsk than stopping the shelling. There was the reintegration of the LDNR in the Ukraine, with safeguards of course but still remaining Ukrainian.

    I go against the usual take on the self-declared republics and believe they are not chock full of pro-Russians. Can’t put a figure on it but a good many there see themselves as Ukrainians and want to stay in the Ukraine. The Minsk federal solution would have been a good solution therefore, but that part of Minsk now looks out of reach. So the end game there, the “winning” for the Russians , still won’t be quite what they were after.

    The “missile problem” – there’s no winning there that I can see at all. No likely scenario so far solves that missile problem.

    The break-up scenario, even at it’s most extreme, doesn’t. Imagine the Russians take the Black Sea coast to Transnistria, the Hungarians take Transcarpathia and the others get their bits. You’d still end up with something like the “Galicia salient” and I can’t see NATO missile bases in Lviv being that much of an improvement, as far as flight times go, on missile bases in Donetsk.

    Even if the entirety of the Ukraine, Galicia and all, were occupied – the Russians would be fools to do that permanently but even if they did – the missile bases in Poland and Romania are pretty close to Moscow anyway. There is no “winning” for the Russians in the story so far. Just a little less losing than they would otherwise have got.

    And since Stoltenberg has the bit between his teeth, and has told the Russians “You want less Nato? You’re going to get more Nato”, no give on our side either.

    Brings us to the sanctions. Looks as if we in the West are going to keep taking Russian fossil fuels and strategic materials. We shall of course pay. But the way those sanctions are structured looks as if the Russians can’t buy much from us with the money we pay with.

    If so, if we’re confiscating Russian assets and ensuring they can’t spend their oil and gas money, why should they keep sending us oil and gas?

    How does that puzzle get resolved? I keep reminding myself, those gas pipes have taps at both ends.

    • Albertde says:

      The US, Russia and China all realize that nuclear weapons are suicidal (so do the Israelis and perhaps the Pakistanis – but they may be suicidal anyway).

      As alternative devastating weapons, the US has settled on animal and human biowarfare with the eternal hope of finding a disease that attacks Russia and China while leaving Americans safe and sound. I think it is a futile and stupid effort – there is no such disease. No matter what disease they come up with, Americans will be affected.

      Russia, on the other hand, has decided on economic warfare. Economically speaking, the US is a parasite – most of US GDP is filled with expensive items (Housing, Health Care and Insurance, College and University Education, Commercial Real Estate) that are either free or cheap elsewhere. Another heavy component is military hardware and software – not useful economically speaking. Meanwhile, Russia runs a budget surplus and has a conservative economy: mining and extraction of natural resources, chemical manufacturing (fertilizer) and other manufacturing. If the Russians withhold commodity exports and fertilizer from foreign spot market(s) for three months and after that demand payment in gold – the world economy collapses. I would not be surprised if they do just that.

    • tedrichard says:

      read the statement by putin and xi given on feb 4 this year about the goal to establish a multipolar world order. THAT is the goal and ukraine is a tiny step towards this plan.

      they plan to move the world from a usa dominated hegemonic rules based (rules for thee but not for me) order to a multipolar world order where UN based international law prevails.

      THIS is WHY the west and especially washington is so apoplectic about russia’s move into ukraine. the western elites know whats coming… the end the western dominated world they have rules over since the 16th century

      understand THIS this is going to be a battle of ideas mutually incompatible to the death. only one side will emerge to win. so do not be surprised if this culminates in some version of ww3 within the next 5 years or so. that war is now underway

    • Barbara Ann says:


      I think a possible answer to your question is provided by tedrichard above. Russia’s victory, if it comes at all, will be economic. Let’s see how long the sanctions and NATO supported insurgency last when Russia starts demanding rubles, or better, gold for its hydrocarbons.

      • English Outsider says:

        Barbara Ann – in that case, if there’s no give, hello Cold War +. Bill Roche points out below that the Eastern Europeans are – for valid historical reasons – wanting to have nothing to do with the RF. The Colonel said recently that history and culture trumps economics and it’s clear that right now it also trumps any sort of rapprochement. I’m pretty sure that that also goes for Brussels and for your and my respective countries. End of chapter?

        with goo on Macron’s

    • cf says:

      The Russians wiped out Fauci controlled bio-labs in Ukraine with this military action and we all know either Fauci doesn’t control his bio-labs very well or he directed them to unleash Covid 19 on the world. The world is just lucky that the Russians didn’t do this in November. Then more Europeans would freeze to death while their parasitic elitists cut their countries off from energy. I can picture nice warm Russians sitting around waiting for the Europeans to give up their ridiculous Green religion, deal with their parasitic elitists and get back to living.

      • English Outsider says:

        Cf – but there are medical research facilities all over the world. Some US financed or joint financed.

        Means nothing. I remember looking at the detailed specifications for school renovations the US Navy was paying for in the Crimea, and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, pre 2014. Just run of the mill stuff. I remember finding the specs interesting in one respect – the US Navy knows a thing or two about building contractors and nails their feet to the floor. It’d have been hard to slip many extras of the sort all contractors yearn for past the Clerk of Works there, I thought.

        But nothing at all to indicate the renovations were for any other purpose than just renovating a school. Yet at the time those renovations were taken as proof positive of ill intention.

        Not at all my field, but I’d guess it’s the same with these medical research facilities.

    • Bill Roche says:

      Dear E.O. you don’t get the end game b/c you don’t understand the Russian soul. Russians (Great Mother Russia) believe other slavs are subordinate. Putin’s end game is to demonstrate that to uppity Ukrainians. Others will get the message. Joining NATO is not just about missiles. The strike time for a missile from western Ukraine to Moscow is not much different from other slavic nations. If missiles were the issue then no eastern nation from Georgia to Estonia, Kosovo, to Finland could join NATO. Russia has seen all of these nations as part of Russian hegemony since the Romanovs. Is this too simple a view? Consider, upon the demise of the USSR every satellite republic in the slavic world said “I’m out of here and any guns I have will point east”. That’s where they saw their tormentor. Poles, Czechs, Litvaks, Hungarians, Ukrainians, don’t want to be lap dogs.
      In ’89 the world turned large, but the west d/n use it properly. It should have been occasion for Bush to tell the Russians the west is your friend and offer warm and genuine welcome to the world community. Instead he spoke about “creating a new world order”. I heard him say it and thought “what a fool. What an opportunity thrown away”! The Russians too had a chance to demonstrate that they had finally given up the role of the “Superior Slav”. They d/n. Another opportunity lost. Imagine the good a real East/West friendship could bring to the world. But that’s not where we are.

      • English Outsider says:

        Bill Roche – this is just the argument I’m having with some people in England.

        If we take it that Putin is ill-intentioned then we’re still not handling Russia the best way. In fact if we assume, as some do but not of course here, that Putin is a mad demonic dictator then we’re definitely not handling him the best way

        Not unless one believes that shelling his compatriots for eight years, refusing to implement that Minsk 2 that all signed up to, pointing missiles at him from close range from one end of Europe to the other, and romping around his borders with formidable military exercises (around a dozen scheduled for this year already) is the best way of dealing with mad demonic dictators.

        I believe it’s a crazy way of dealing with him. So whatever our views on Putin – mad dictator or USSR redivivus up to knight in shining armour at the other end of the scale – NATO, the EU, and your and my countries need their respective heads examining if they think this is the right way to do business with Russia.

        I could not agree more with your last paragraph. Every word. Is that horse now out of the barn for good?

        • Bill Roche says:

          I think so. Because Russia spans the Eurasian land mass, people wonder is it westward or eastward leaning. Two hundred years of subjection to the Mongol gave the Russians a taste for both. There are horses for Putin to ride in Archangel and Kamchatka but I think he has decided to take Russia east. The problem is he is wants to take European slavs “kicking and screaming” w/h. Remember this slogan … hell no, we won’t go. They’re chanting it from Bratislava to Talinn. This aint over.

          • Pat Lang says:

            A “no fly Zone” is out of the question as it was in Syria. Why? Because it would have to be enforced by force of arms and that means war with Russia.

      • whoknows says:

        A big portion of the Moscow elite has been and remains Ukrainian-born.
        Brezhnev was a Ukrainian, for crying out loud. Ukrainians and Belorussians have always been equal in access to opportunities, promotions, and such.

  12. ISL says:


    Thanks, nothing about the MSM narrative makes any sense – Russia would take down the internet if things were going bad – presumably they have left it up for communication between Ukrainians in Russia and Ukraine.

    Question for SST: One big Cauldron for the LOC pinned troops near Donbass, or segment it into smaller cauldrons (at higher cost)?

  13. morongobill says:

    Thanks Mr Johnson for this excellent presentation of facts.

    My comment is a general one. In my opinion, the Kens and Karens who hounded Trump and his supporters then lorded over us all with covid masking, social distancing etc will now be calling us scum and traitors for not wanting to nuke the Russians.

    The war tocsin is sounding louder every minute, I feat this finally may be the big one.

  14. Deap says:

    From MOTUS (@catturd):

    “I don’t know what’s actually happening in Ukraine
    because our media is corrupt as hell, Ukraine’s media
    is corrupt as hell, and Russia’s media is corrupt as

  15. Lysias says:

    Today’s (2/28) Washington Post claims Ukrainian forces retook Kharkov yesterday (2/27). Anybody know whether that’s true?

    • Leith says:

      Lysias –

      The Russians are still shelling Kharkiv. So that would indicate they are not in control there.

    • JMT says:

      Russians haven’t started their battle for Kharkov yet. Just raids and skirmishes so far. Positioning and prepping the battlefield. Give it a couple days, the real war hasn’t started yet.

  16. Deap says:

    US Dept of State STEP warnings. First paragraph in bold, but did not reproduce here:

    STEP Notifications

    Do not travel to Russia due to the unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces in Ukraine, the potential for harassment against U.S. citizens by Russian government security officials, the embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia, COVID-19 and related entry restrictions, terrorism, limited flights into and out of Russia, and the arbitrary enforcement of local law.

    U.S. citizens should consider departing Russia immediately via commercial options still available.

    Due to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, an increasing number of airlines are cancelling flights into and out of Russia, and numerous countries have closed their airspace to Russian airlines.

    In addition, air space around southern Russia is restricted and a number of airports in the area have closed. U.S. citizens located in or considering travel to the districts of the Russian Federation immediately bordering Ukraine should be aware that the situation along the border is dangerous and unpredictable.

    Given the ongoing armed conflict, U.S. citizens are strongly advised against traveling by land from Russia to Ukraine.

    In addition, there is the potential throughout Russia of harassment towards foreigners, including through regulations targeted specifically against foreigners. Given the ongoing armed conflict and the potentially significant impact on international travel options, U.S. citizens should consider departing Russia immediately via commercial options still available…………”

  17. Leith says:

    Todays UK Defense Intelligence update:


    The Brit spooks might be talking smack. No offense Larry but I put more stock in their analysis than I do in yours or Dreizin’s.

    • Larry Johnson says:

      Their lies are documented. What are they reporting about the disposition of Ukrainian military forces in the East?

      • Bill Roche says:

        Your gloomy analysis makes sense. The kill comes on Thursday through Saturday. A recently retired Army Col. made a similar analysis on the air this AM (last night??) and the talking heads hammered him. It went against their narrative so I don’t think CNN/FOX/ or CBS will call him again. Time for a very brave and patriotic (what a rarity in leadership today) to get his ass out of town and for the Ukrainians to make the best of the situation. Ukraine will again be subdued. What will Putin get? He will get a nation of 44 million sullen and hostile slavs. He may get Finnish membership in NATO (Finns can be ornery you know) and a Swedish membership as well. There is even a chance that western Europe will admit Trump was right and pay more into the NATO kitty. Was it worth it? Only Putin knows.

        • Pat Lang says:

          Bill Roche

          Who was this colonel?

        • jim ticehurst says:

          Bill…I See The icture The Same Way As You..Agreed..Many Points..Thanks For \
          Joining The TEAM…

          I Saw Doug MacGregor too,,Did His Bio..Whats Your Take,,??

          I Believe It Will Be Over Soon..Putin Gave Them
          Parlay To SURRENDER..

          They Refused..Naturally..Guess They Want The Body Count And Martyrs…MUST have Them..

          Every Generation Does

          • Bill Roche says:

            Macgregor is a professional soldier but there are also pros in the Ukrainian Army. They must see the same thing. If Macgregor is right Zelinski, his gov’t, and the Army brass w/b captured and killed w/i two weeks. Yet Zelinski would not “say uncle” today. I hope he has made his peace w/God and his wife and children. We could be witnessing a 21st century Henry V. Let me change Shakespeare and say “to those who this day go home, tell your children that your bravery would not have been in vain if politicians had the courage to send you bows, swords, and shields months ago and not wait until this, St. Crispin’s Day.” My heart is w/Zelinsky but my head says Macgregor is right.

          • jim ticehurst says:

            PAT LANG…

            I Am Talking About A Family Member
            Who Was a LT.Colonel..US ARMY.. now. Retired..
            Who Was Over Serving in the Gulf War
            ..from the Beginning With Iraq and fter Our
            Invasion of Iraq….
            …. He has Long Retired..Like You..

          • Pat Lang says:

            Jim Ticehurst
            I retired as a full colonel (0-6) in 1988 and from DIA as an SES-4 in 1995. See the wiki on me.

      • Leith says:

        Documented by who/whom? No matter the crafty reputation of the Sassenachs, they are still 1000% more truthful than Putin and his vast propaganda and disinformation ecosystem.

        At least the Brits (and us) have not turned fabricated falsehoods into a key tactic such as Putin has done by making it part of Russia’s military doctrine. As documented and bragged about by General Gerasimov.

        I’m not privy to their reporting on the struggle in the east. But Wikipedia shows a Russian thrust breaking thru Ukrainian far left flank at Stanitsya Luhanska; a narrow LDR breakthrough in the middle to Sievierodonetsk but that is being heavily contested; another breakthrough from DNR taking Volnovakha but again is being contested; and Mariupol is now completely surrounded and may be fallen by the time you read this. I hope those Chechens and Serbian Chetniks fighting for DNR don’t take revenge on the Mariupol Babushkas that took up arms in defense of the city.

        with russian

  18. Joseph F ("JAY") Hellauer, III says:


  19. Roaring Bull says:


  20. Condottiere says:

    “ The Ukrainian Air Force, what is left of it, is now flying on Helen Keller terms. It seems that Ukraine combat aircraft rely on ground controlled radar to conduct air to air intercepts. Guess what the Russians obliterated in the first hours of their invasion on Wednesday? If you said, “ground controlled radar” you are a winner.”

    If you use crowd sourced ADSB and MLAT open source websites, NATO has had AWACS and tankers positioned right along the Eastern Polish border. Why else would they position an airborne radar C2 aircraft without using to alert and control attack aircraft? I have also been tracking both RC-135U SIGINT and JSTARS at various times to capture the movements of troops. They aren’t blind. You can’t tell me we aren’t pushing ISR to the Ukrainians.

  21. Barry Mac says:

    I suspect it has nothing to do with NATO, and not much to do with the “Nazis” either. I believe it’s a pure resource/commodity play. Russia will take southern and eastern Ukraine, complete with the coal, iron ore, wheat production, potential shale gas fields, semiconductor grade neon production, etc. Russia will then have 90% of Europe’s coal production, 30% of world wheat production, control over all Europe’s close gas supplies, and about 50% of Europe’s oil and gas supply.

    That secures Russia’s future by making it the only major supplier Europe has, thus nobody they’d want to attack, as they can’t afford to lose supply while fighting Russia. As it is, Russia, who produces 62% of the world’s ammonium nitrate fertilizer, has suspended exports. Think about that as spring seeding is about to start. Food shortages next year are a certainty. Europe can’t get feed for their cattle, so beef will be through the roof.

    Whatever you may think of Putin, he looks ahead, unlike the Davos crowd who’ll be taking it in the shorts in not time as they have no way out of this mess. Sanctioning Russia fuels inflation and kills us faster than them. Not doing anything shows our whole system is a sham. We’ve been outsmarted and out maneuvered by Putin and Xi. Ironically he may have saved us from the WEF. Remember, he went in to this with no debt, $1trillion in cash, gold and cash equivalents outside our reach, and solid commitments from China. He planned in advance. Our response was like taking checkers to a chess tournament. We lost up front by going with the global model as the only available option. Well, this is what that gets you if somebody doesn’t buy in, and they have the most nukes.

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