Your Super Thursday, err Tuesday Cheat Sheet by Larry C Johnson UPDATE

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Larry Johnson-5x7

(UPDATE–I have updated the piece to show the percentage Bernie Sanders received of the vote in 2016 for each of the relevant states.)

As Joe Biden said, "Four scare and seven days ago, our four mothers sought to do something….", the Dems are going to put on a show tonight. To fully appreciate the shenanigans you will need a program.

Nothing like a benchmark if you want to spot trends and anomalies in electoral politics. There are 16 Democrat contests today. I'm not paying much attention to American Samoa or Democrats Abroad. Apart from those outliers, nine of the remaining 14 contests are open primaries. That means that Republicans, who are not embroiled in a competitive primary, will be free to wander into the polls and vote for their favorite Democrat. I predict that turnout in those states will be higher than 2016 in terms of Democrat votes.

I will be very interested to see what happens in the states with closed or semi-closed primaries. That should be a true test of Bernie enthusiasm compared to 2016.

Enjoy.

Alabama: Open primary, with 52 pledged delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 309,928     

Bernie 2016– 76,399   (20%)

American Samoa: Open caucus, with the territory awarding six delegates on the basis of the results of the caucuses.

Arkansas: Open primary, with 31 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 144,580   

Bernie 2016–  64,868  (30%)

California: Semi-closed primary -only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot- with the 415 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 2,745,302

Bernie 2016– 2,381,722  (46%)

Colorado: Semi-closed primary –only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot- with 67 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 49,314 

Bernie 2016– 72,115 (59%)

Democrats Abroad: Open primary in which any U.S. citizen living abroad who is a member of Democrats Abroad can participate, with the 13 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Maine: Closed primary –only Democrats can cast a ballot- 24 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016–Maine held a caucus in 2016 and awarded most of its delegates to Hillary.

Bernie 2016– 

Massachusetts: Semi-closed primary –only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot- 91 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 603,784

Bernie 2016– 586,716 (49%)

Minnesota: Open primary, 75 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 73,510

Bernie 2016– 118,135  (61%)

North Carolina: Semi-closed primary –only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot- 110 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 616,346

Bernie 2016– 460,316  (43%)

Oklahoma: Semi-closed primary –only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot- 37 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 139,338

Bernie 2016– 174,054  (56%)

Tennessee: Open primary, 64 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 245,304

Bernie 2016– 120,333  (33%)

Texas: Open primary, 228 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 935,080

Bernie 2016– 475,561  (34%)

Utah: Open primary, 29 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 15,666

Bernie 2016– 61,333 (80%)

Vermont: Open primary, 16 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016–  18,335

Bernie 2016– 115,863 (86%)

Virginia: Open primary, 99 delegates being awarded on a proportional basis.

Hillary 2016– 503,358

Bernie 2016– 275,507  (35%)

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7 Responses to Your Super Thursday, err Tuesday Cheat Sheet by Larry C Johnson UPDATE

  1. Fred says:

    One thing in common: “proportional”. That’s a guarantee for chaos, or “adult” supervision from the party elite.

  2. Jack says:

    Biden crushing it!

  3. akaPatience says:

    Larry, your recent analysis that Sanders’ support was softening seems to be playing out. In the closed/semi-closed primaries in Massachusetts (90% counted), North Carolina (100% counted, and Oklahoma (100% counted) he’s gotten significantly fewer votes than in 2016. California and Colorado haven’t counted enough votes yet to compare to 2016. Maybe anti-Clinton sentiment helped Sanders in 2016 more than has been acknowledged.
    That a dolt like Biden performed so well on Super Tuesday would be more remarkable if most of his victories hadn’t taken place in states that Trump will almost certainly win in November.

  4. exiled off mainstreet says:

    Biden carries so much corrupt baggage and behaves as though he heading towards incompetency. It is profoundly disappointing to see his campaign revived from the dead by propaganda and low information voters who are easy marks for the power structure despite the facts being generally known. Once his record and behaviour patterns again become the focus of attention, as will inevitably happen even though he is a darling of the established power structure, he should soon return to discredited status. All of this makes it much more likely that Trump will remain president next year.

  5. J says:

    Chuck Hagel is endorsing Biden.

  6. Jack says:

    The Democratic primary is over. Obama has turned out to be the kingmaker in the party. The Biden vs Trump general election will be entertaining at the least. The contest is in reality a handful of states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and I will add Florida & Ohio too.
    Kamala Harris seems to be the VP choice bet those that forecast the Biden win are making. She’s such a phony. But I suppose that’s the metaphor for contemporary America.

  7. marc b. says:

    Harris is a phony, and would spend most of her time fending off the spittle-stained, blank-eyed Biden. Not that she has no experience in such matters. I have sat out the last two presidential elections. Shaping up for a third.

Comments are closed.