“After Russian forces in Ukraine suffered a series of crushing defeats over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin went into retreat himself.
The Russian president postponed a planned meeting with his top military brass and representatives of the defense industry in Sochi, in a sign that Putin is caught in the lurch after Ukrainian forces reclaimed a lot of territory that Russian armed forces had seized earlier in the war, according to TASS. It is thought to be the largest Russian defeat since the beginning of the war.
“The Sochi meetings are in demand, they will continue,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, indicating that the meeting was just being postponed, not canceled.
Peskov said Putin had pushed off the meeting with Russian defense leadership and defense industry representatives, which is usually held in May, due to a “very, very busy” schedule.
But he also suggested that Putin needed time to digest the new developments in the war, alluding to the losses.”
Comment: IMO he is afraid of being deposed at one of these meetings. pl
Excuse me but what is your point in endorsing the most egregious propaganda outposts who favor your own position?
I know, I know, evaluate separately the source and the data 🙂 so how do you evaluate the “data”?
JLD
I have often been accused of “guessing” by people who do not understand that intuition is really high-speed reasoning based on masses of data. If you can’t do it, you can’t do it. Have I not been correct in my judgment in this war?
Given its history, I would think the Russian military (leadership) would be further down the line to depose Vlad – after the Senior Bureaucrats, Oligarchs, his Inner Circle / KGB Alumni Org, a Popular Uprising, and the Russian Church. But, “desperate times… “
ked
The people with guns would depose him.
so, more like Tsar Nicholas II than Peter the Great.
Is Putin afraid of being deposed? Are the ministers going to show up with a “silk scarf” and give it to Putin? Or is it an advisement? “Vlady it’s time to go.” Or is it a ride to Archangel from Sochi w/one stop along the way? There is no November election coming round and the boyars never liked them anyway. How is Putin released from his duties in today’s Russia. Coincidentally, I would not have give the thought of Putin’s “departure” much thought but his army seems to be really thrown on its ass recently. Unless the much vaunted 3rd Army comes to the rescue in a week or so. The 3rd Army, bombing of Ukrainian cities by the Air Force, and complete cut off of Russian gas to Europe will save the day? Is that Putin’s gambit?
Vlad, you know, with a little whipped cream that gun ought to taste pretty good.
Bill,
I suspect Putin may survive the loss of Kharkiv, but the loss Kherson, Crimea and Sevastopol stands to be a black matter.
ML; of course no one knows what the men w/guns will do but I’d even allow Putin the loss of Kherson. But if Crimea goes the national embarrassment b/f the “unter menschen” Ukrainians will be too much. Putin leads no battle groups, plans no strategy nor, but his was the voice that said “go, kill Ukrainians, I know you can do it.” I think there might be an empty Dacha outside in the Moscow woods. Gorbachev vacated it recently. Raisa will be given a lovely apartment in St Petersburg.
“go, kill Ukrainians, I know you can do it.”
Verbatim? Hm
I wish I were as sure as you who considers whom an ‘Untermensch’ in this proxy war context. We would capitalize the term in German.
Raisa will be given a lovely apartment in St Petersburg.
Reborn like Jesus? After 23 years?
would unter menschen (pl) also be capitalized. Singular or plural, what would be the reason for capitalization.
I’m not sure if it is correct to say “who considers whom”, or “who considers who” usv. Are you sure about your usage?
As to killing Ukrainians, what do you think happens when you send your army to invade another country? They were not sent on a picnic.
Bill Roche,
As far as I know all nouns are capitalized in German. And Untermensch is one word. Germans also have an interesting habit of stringing several words together into one word.
Bill,
I was scratching my head during the run-up at the way Putin allowed himself to be portrayed as isolated. Super ridiculous long tables, no attempt to gin up his people. Publicly haranguing his advisors. It all struck me as very odd. I convinced myself for awhile that was deliberate, that he knew this was a huge risk and was setting up a Plan B resignation if things didn’t go well. Putin been at it a long time, it’s a tough tough job and he’s getting up there in age for that sort of workload and stress.
Now I think if that was the plan the window for it has closed. Things went too far. Russia is unlikely to be off the hook until he is either dead or in prison, as few would believe Putin’s “retirement” would be real.
https://www.worldatlas.com/seas/sea-of-azov.html
According to legend St. Relkov once said spells were reaching Tag and Roger, who lived near the novelist Chekov in a biography. And Smasher Zha Zha stepped into an Armadillo Meanily in the funny papers.
Rumplestiltskin might not be avoiding his suspenders but considering the whereupons of wearing new aprons for cooking capons.
Further nutrition. Suggestible per chance.
Russia attacks Ukraine positions with ‘world’s largest mortar’ as Kyiv claims gains on battlefield
https://youtu.be/-iEY0DNDtM4
——
As the Russia-Ukraine battle gets fiercer with each passing day, Vladimir Putin is drawing the most deadliest weapons from his arsenal. The latest video released by the Russian defence ministry shows 2S4 Tyulpan in action. The 2S4 Tyulpan is the world’s heaviest & biggest mortar system which is currently raining hell on Ukraine. Watch this video for more.
F&L
The Russians can make as many videos as they like about their fearsome weapons systems. The fact is they are all moving further back towards the Russian border – those that weren’t abandoned of course.
The Special Military Operation’s greatest achievements so far are in making Russia a pariah, expanding NATO and exposing Russia’s Potemkin army for all the world to see. Where does the guy who did all this go from here? The greatest argument I can see for Putin surviving is that I can’t see what any replacement could do to fix this. A new regime might attempt a withdrawal but that would almost certainly mean losing Crimea too and a continuation of sanctions or crippling reparations. The nationalist camp and liberal internationalists could easily end up at war with one another in such a scenario. There is no way the neocons will lose another opportunity to completely destroy Russia if she loses this war and I expect all Russians who lived through the early nineties know this. It might be the only thing Putin has going for him.
BA; I am informed by in-laws (St. Petersburg) that the Russian people love Putin. But he hasn’t demanded to see their first born in a Russian army uniform. UMD may be Putin’s manpower solution but I don’t believe Russian men and women are willing to risk their lives to prevent Ukrainian independence. This is a new Russia. WW II and the Cold War are distant stories to 18-19 year old Russians. The Great Patriotic War ended in ’45. Today’s 18 year old was born in 2004, almost 60 years later. “Hey, Hey, Vladi say; how many kids did you kill today.” Putin could not survive that.
F&L –
They have been in use against Ukrainian troops since at least 2015. But it has not slowed them down yet. One of those 2S4 was destroyed by Ukraine four months ago: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/05/22/russian-tv-shows-off-rare-2s4-mega-mortar-then-ukraine-blows-it-up/?sh=56bd5e507a52
It’s a 50 year old system, not very accurate and very short range. Slow rate of fire means they can only get off one or two rounds before they have to move to avoid counter-battery fire. And it is not really that mega-sized – 240mm = 9.45 inch.
Leith,
I appreciate your taking the time to inform me of the probable irrelevance of a video that some entity flashed into my dupegruel “feed”, one calling it’s paw thor the Lyndon station times. Some things work by association. In the riddleo it said those tool lips can deliver especially sweet smooches. Of course I immediately knew it couldn’t be suggesting I think that maybe other .. . But your handle suggests knowledge of DeMoivre’s theorem, and those are complex numbers.
B A,
Don’t know much about history, don’t know much trigonometry, but mule knows and she tells me ..
Dolly Parton – Muleskinner Blues
https://youtu.be/Fwc1FkkWulc
wow. a big mortar. really?
perfect for indiscriminate targeting of civilian populations in urban terrain. impressive commercial, none the less.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3638950-municipal-deputies-call-for-putins-resignation/
Doubt if Putin will care a rat’s ass about these municipal deputies. However, the fact that these deputies are willing to risk falling out of windows may say something.
I suppose it all depends on what Col. Lang says about the need for the Ukrainian military to maintain their momentum and turn their battlefield victories into a rout. If that happens then the “men with guns” may act to prevent being the scapegoat. If my naive on these matters speculation has any weight it would appear that the battlefield situation would have to deteriorate substantially before any concerted effort to oust Putin.
well, if they get rid of Putin then this mess becomes their problem.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/sep/13/ukraine-faces-new-dilemma-how-far-and-how-fast-pre/
It is going to be interesting to see what both the Russian and Ukrainian military do in the next couple weeks. I have read there are 20-30,000 Russian soldiers in the Kherson area who don’t have proper resupply logistics and are trapped west of a half-mile wide river. They could come under great pressure as fuel, food and ammo deplete. The Ukrainians could give them sleepless nights with constant raids and shelling as well as air attacks.
The fact that their petition is still online on that municipal council web site tells you that Putin doesn’t give a rat’s arse about their call.
Surely Russian generals who have demonstrated such incompetence leading the fight against the Ukrainians are likely to be as incompetent in confronting Putin. Any move against Putin must surely come from the likes of Lavrov, Medvedev, sundry oligarchs, and maybe the FSB.
Mike G
No. Pistols would do.
True. Caligula was assassinated by his Praetorian Guard. They then gave Claudius the job. But was Claudius any better?
Mike g
Does not seem to have been insane.
But Claudius slept w/his sister who gave her off spring (from some senator) to Claudius to adopt. Which he did. His name was Nero. Hmmn, the Biden family would’ve felt at home back then.
So much speculation, but so little evidence..
Maybe the man is simply busy?
Intuition can sometimes
be high speed reasoning, but at other times it’s just jumping to conclusions.
Man proposes, but God disposes.
A pols
The same old crap. Join the queue.
A.Pols
That’s the thing about intuition, it has a feel to it. To consistently rely on intuition, one must “know” the feel or it is easy to mistake for “jumping to the Island of Conclusions,” in which case one must swim all the way back (The Phantom Toolbooth by Norton Juster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Phantom_Tollbooth)
I have no experience like the Colonel and TTG, but my art is all intuition and the amazing synchronicities that it brings. I’ve got well over 10,000 hours in it. The use of Intuition is real and precious, and comes at great cost.
Thanks. His personal story is even as interesting as his books.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norton_Juster
Jules Feiffer and Justin both names begin –
And Justin. Who else has a name like the cat in the hat?
One of my great grandfather’s ten brothers founded a chapter of the Oddfellows society near DC after the Civil War but I only know it from reading a book.
Fife. Foe fum. Fier fumpf. Soon it’s up to the elf.
Norton couldn’t be wordplay. Almost a palindrome. No no rt. On on tr.
We’re going to have to call you O’OBc or Boo C. The clue was processed B is V. Uh oh – Voo C Boo ? Are you in the Coboose?
What could be spookier?
I’m just kidding due to my incurable illness. Thank you again. You a person to be most highly esteemed in my humble opinion. Your intuition is much better than Good.
Who Goos when Sid said no, Sis, not Sid. It’s Not his Noses. Sisyphus the mythyfuss?
If I were Vlad I’d be worried about getting on that plane to Kazakstan on Wednesday to meet Xi.
Well, this is interesting!
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1569550041194405890/photo/1
In part:
“… 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA) and other Western Military District (WEMD) formations severely degraded. Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened… likely years to rebuild…
Al –
1st Guards Tank Army made their bones in WW2 at Stalingrad under the command of an ethnic Ukrainian, General Kirill Moskalenko.
I agree with Col. Lang. Putin is afraid to receive his Generals. Their intention is to preserve whats left of the army, preserve the country and to forestall use of nuclear weapons. Next weeks session of the UN General Assembly is the catalyst, the Generals will give Putin an ultimatum that terms must be sought.
The UN General Assembly gives Lavrov, or his replacement, an opportunity to bargain.
HOWEVER, unless the Russians play a very strong hand at the UN, our Washington and NATO crazies will be emboldened to try and drive too hard a bargain for Russia to swallow.
walrus
I fear that is exactly how it will play out. Nuland was in Kyiv with Blinken the other day.
All Putin has to do is declare victory and go home. Except for a tiny few, the average Russian will never know the truth because of Roskomandzor censorship of the internet and media. Plus the dezinformatsiya put out by Prigozhin’s trolls from Glavset aka the Internet Research Agency.
Walrus,
Lavrov is not the Russian ambassador to the UN. Remind us all again of how many UN member states did not join the sanctions regime and why they should trust the Western nations now?
I’m not confident at all that the Ru generals have the brains and initiative for anything like that. Maybe in another country. Ru has a long tradition of keeping those with smarts elsewhere. Maybe at best the FSB. But he has security watching them too. Whoever makes such a move it won’t be military generals. And you have to contemplate the consequences of failure on everyone you care about. Torturing your children, wife, parents, planes crashing etc. Did you see the higher ups cowering on Feb 22? He has time left. If anything he will be talked into resigning and he will remain in a visible consultative position or visited in Krushchevian retirement by newscasters happy to see him.
He’s too popular to violently overthrow.
Fighting has just broken out again between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and this appears to have taken both the Russians and the USA by surprise.
The most logical explanation for Putin canceling that meeting is that he is busy consulting with the other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) following a call from Azerbaijan for military assistance.
That would have to take priority over a meet and greet that can be rescheduled for the following weeks.
Yes it’s a large enchilada. Shelling Taganrog reported yesterday. Consult maps on the Kuban and related wikis. Armenia, Armageddon Arma gde = ged Don. “Gde” is Russian for “where.” Check Ru Wikipedia for Гог и Магог. It’s not mystical hysteria, it’s an area where world ending events happened and were therefore referenced in prophetic writings as prefiguring possible end times when the ancient sages contemplated the days when awesome weapons would be absolutely in large numbers. Gog and Mahogany. Close. But we don’t need any and h becomes g in Russian.
Colonel,
My position, being in the last generation of Americans to be drafted, is that a mass people’s army and maneuver warfare are necessary to win world wars. This is why defeating Imperial Japan is the last victory of the USA.
Russia is in the same position as America. Will Vladimir Putin be told at Sochi that to defeat Ukraine with a conventional army, a national mobilization is required? Ukraine is already mobilized because it was invaded. All three nations are run by and for Oligarchs. The last thing they want is nationalization and rationing that is necessary to win wars. The Democrats just spent 19 million dollars for ads for far-right Republicans in this year’s primaries. Shooting oneself intentionally in the foot is an indication how arrogant and stupid global profiteers are.
Russia will not accept the loss of Crimea that has been part of it since 1783. They will use tactical nuclear weapons if Ukraine tries to seize it; as will NATO if Poland is invaded.
Humans are on the brink of extinction — b at Moon of Alabama published “A Peace Proposal for Ukraine” that is met with derision in the comments. I’ve stated before to avoid a global nuclear war an armistice and a DMZ between Russia and Ukraine that includes Donbas are required. This is unlikely, since it means acknowledgement that this is a multi-polar world and requires governments that work in the best interests of their people.
Most likely, the profiteers will kill us all.
I agree with you 100%. I put up my own wishy washy peace negotiation proposal up here a couple of days ago but it wasn’t posted. I think the raining season might be something the Ru side is counting on. And Europe freezing. If they are leaving those council protest texts up on bulletin boards it means they are encouraging people to come out of hiding.
Walrus, the the Security Council is seized of this matter, not the General Assembly. The Council is scheduled to meet on Ukraine on 22 September.
The General Assembly was opened today by the President, Csaba Kőrösi of Hungary; key events forthcoming:
Transforming Education – UNESCO (16, 17, 19 September)
Sustainable Development Goals (19 September)
General debate (20-26 September)
The Rights of Minorities – High Commissioner for Human Rights (21 September)
Much of the action will play out in bilaterals playing out in various hotels and missions across Midtown.
Putin and Lavrov dismissed suggestions made by lower-ranking people in May – when according to some the moment might have been ideal – to call for negotiations, fix frontlines, get a disengagement and observer force going and stabilise zones for ethnic Russians.
I did not follow it too closely but it appears that they chose to instead to escalate up to the point on 20 July when Lavrov publicly declared that the war aim was to abolish Ukraine. A negotiated solution would requires someone on the Russian side to change war aims back to something that can be subject to negotiations (like territory, populations, not the existence).
This makes it likely in my mind that we have a moment much like the one in September 1918 with Hindenburg and Ludendorff telling the politicians that the war was lost. As we saw at that point, it could only be the military as they had the real information about the military situation.
Walrus, you speculate on a potential strong hand at the UN? Let’s look at voting behaviour.
The March vote of the GA asking Russia to stop the invasion was 144-5-35 (meaning Russia and four others voted against it with 35 abstaining, seven had no voting rights – might have voted with Russia). The April vote that ended Russia’s membership on the Human Rights Council was 93-24-76, the high point of abstention (everyone miraculously having found a way to pay the minimum dues to be allowed to vote). Since then things have not really improved.
Consistently Russia can count on a dozen among the 193 members in the GA (DPRK, Tajikistan, Iran, Armenia, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Congo, Sudan, Mali, CAR) and occasionally South Africa and China. However, friends like these come with their own problems. Iran, Venezuela, Sudan and Congo lost their voting rights for the last GA vote due to consistent arrears in membership dues.
And it is not much different in the Council. Votes – on almost any matter – often end 13-1-1, meaning Russia alone, China abstains. The last one I watched was when Zelensky wanted to address the Council via video two weeks ago, and Russia asked for procedural vote to be held, as heads of state should address the Council in person – many felt it a moot point after all the exceptions made during COVID.
While I would not like to read too much into this, this seems to me to be the current “hand” with not a lot of possibilities to transform the substantial number of abstentions in the GA into votes siding with them.
In terms of contributions to the budget of the organisation, the countries not backing Russia account for 80% of the regular budget: Russia’s share is 2.4%, China contributes 12% vs. the US’s contribution capped at 22% – the Helms-Biden formula, Japan 8%, Germany 6%, UK & France just about 4% each and everyone else lininig up behind.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1570065155089645568?s=21
I wonder how many generals and national security intelligence officers have accidentally fallen out of windows?