According to Russian military Telegram channel Troika (“Three”), the Ukrainians used tactics previously tested in Kharkiv on a smaller scale. (Credit to Roy for picking this up). First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening. This may have been done by new interceptor FPVs linked to air-defence radar. Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance. “They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications,” according to another Russian blogger quoted by WarTranslated.
This was at least partly possible because the area was considered low priority and was not supplied with the latest equipment. In Ukraine, the war of drones versus jammers has been a constant arms race of upgrades as each move to evade jammed frequencies is countered by new jammers. It seems the drones in this sector were not working to the latest standards. The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function. According to WarTranslated’s source, even the feared Lancet loitering munitions were partly affected.
Drones are a major asset for stopping armored assaults. Recent reports suggest that they account for two-thirds or more of the tanks killed, with videos showing entire armored assaults knocked out one-by-one by successive FPV hits long before they reached enemy positions. By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.
But how did they tackle Russian troops dug deep into defensive lines built over the course of two years? According to Three, Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.” OSINT analyst Roy notes that in recent weeks Ukraine has employed powerful drone bombs to blast openings in the overhead cover or Russian trenches and dugouts. Skilled FPV pilots are able to fly through these openings and clear the trench below. It may be significant that some videos of the action show new Ukrainian dive-bomber drones. While quadcopter dive-bombing has been seen before, these look like aircraft-type drones with longer range and greater payload. It is a distinct echo of the original Blitzkrieg concept of dive-bombers in close support of ground troops.
Once the trenches are cleared, Three say that new Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones(‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.
Russian military commentators called for their forces to ‘blanket the sky’ with VT-40 FPV drones and wipe out the Kursk incursion. The VT-40 made by volunteers group Sudoplatov is made under Ministry of Defence contract and produced in vast quantities. But one of the major criticisms has been that the makers have been slow to update the control frequencies, so after a while they become easy to jam. That seems to have been exactly what has happened here. The Russians are well aware of this vulnerability to electronic warfare, and are introducing new semi-autonomous FPV drones with optical guidance. These allow the operator to lock on from a distance and continue to the target regardless of jamming. But they are not yet present in large numbers and likely none have been supplied to low-priority sectors like the defensive line at Kursk.
This opens up a window in time where a jamming blitz can succeed and give total drone dominance for long enough to make a breakthrough. Once semi-autonomous and autonomous drones become common – or others using jam-proof technology like fiber-optic cable – then clearing the skies will no longer be so straightforward.
But there may be another approach. It looks like mobile warfare is still possible when drone dominance of the skies is achieved. And while jamming may not work, more kinetic approaches – direct drone-on-drone attacks – are becoming increasingly feasible. Just as the original Blitzkrieg needed control of the skies so it was not halted by enemy air attack, drone airpower — fleets of fighter drones to down enemy reconnaissance and attack craft — could become be a vital component of the modern version. Their success at suppressing enemy drones may determine whether an assault succeeds or fails.
The situation in Kursk is still extremely fluid. Ukrainian sources are giving away no details of their operations. Once it is over though, they may have written a new chapter is the history of warfare.
Comment: Several writers have made a similar assessment in the few days since the start of the Kursk offensive. This quick take is by David Hambling, author of “‘Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world.” Hambling follows cutting-edge military technology in general and the drone warfare revolution in particular. It does show the claims of the death of maneuver warfare has been premature. Maneuver warfare is still possible, but drones and EW must now be integral parts of maneuver warfare.
Another point not mentioned as often is Ukraine’s heavy use of SOF and reconnaissance-sabotage units ranging far forward of the front line. This was a hallmark of both US and Soviet doctrine during the Cold War. In 10th Group, we had specific targets and missions throughout Eastern Europe that we trained for constantly in addition to planning for our UW mission. Soviet Spetsnaz and other reconnaissance units were planning to wreak havoc behind our lines. However, this kind of operation calls for dashing men of great nerve, skill and initiative. Other than in the early days of the Russian invasion, we have not seen much of this characteristic Russian military operation. Instead, we’ve seen Spetsnaz units being pissed away as conventional assault troops. It’s good to see that Budanov has ensured that Ukrainian SOF has not suffered the same fate. They continue to be thorns in the Russian rear areas. I’ve read several reports of Russian columns getting ambushed well behind the lines.
In line with a report I read yesterday that the Ukrainians have captured a lot of Russian vehicles and are using those vehicles to increase the mobility of the advancing troops, I found this report from a Russian Telegram blogger on North Channel (Северный канал). Living off the enemy. That’s an age-old SF dictum. Probably more important than living off the land.
“Information is received that the enemy’s sabotage and reconnaissance group is operating in the Safonovka-Lgov area. They are using equipment captured from our units with erased identification” marks. If you know anything about the movement of this equipment, please inform the competent authorities or write to us, we will promptly pass the information on to the appropriate authorities.”
I also find it amusing that we are depending on Russian sources for information on this offensive. Ukrainian OPSEC has been a sight to behold. Self discipline among both the politicians and the troops is rock solid. Even ISW has taken the hint and chose to limit what they print about Ukraine’s offensive. This discipline and Kyiv’s decision to launch this offensive points to a continued confidence that Ukraine will prevail. Syrskyi has recently voiced the same confidence.
TTG
I thought this only happened in the movies. See brief video at link. Very impressive.
——————-
https://t.me/slavaded1337/56262
A Russian soldier shot down a Ukrainian kamikaze drone on the move with a machine gun!
F&L,
That’s the whole point of designating air guards in every vehicle or formation. That was SOP when I was in the Infantry. We even practiced shooting down rocket drones with M-16s and M-60 machine guns.
Interesting maneuver by the Ukrainians
Why attack russian defensive lines that are well entrenched when there is all that land around kursk and further north that is lightly defended.
Brynask and klintsky await.
mcohen –
Belgorod also. There is already a small incursion into the Graivoronsky District there. It’s over 40 miles south of the big incursion into Kursk Oblast. Feint maybe? Or a potential linkup? Confirmed by Russian sources.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1822159735258296670
https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B034'37.6%22N+35%C2%B027'02.3%22E/@50.6616397,35.2453198,37364m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d50.5771226!4d35.4506268?entry=ttu
Leith it is a no boner.Obvious belgorod.With this incursion the pressure is on iran to not waste drones and missiles as russia will need them.Therefore an attack by iranian proxies with irgc backup will occur in the 10 km radius of the golan region.imho with a pinch of sulphur.
To signal intent a red sea conflag.
I am sure the last thing Putin wanted to hear was that Ukraine has invaded Russia. I have also read reports from overseas that claim the morale in their military is deteriorating rapidly. In a top to bottom system, like Russia’s, if the flow reverses, watch out. It also appears that Ukraine is able to improvise and that can also have a serious impact going forward. Now we have to see how Russia responds and that has to cover the entire western front, form the south to the north and it may require removing forces from occupying Ukraine, and if so, this action has succeeded. I know the Putin pals around here think they have unlimited sources, but that is not reality. There are plenty of strains growing, including internally. I am not going to guess what will happen, but I consider what is happening now is significant and I will leave that guessing to the assembled speculators.
.
Gerasimov fired because of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast? Putin replaces him with Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the FSB? Can this be true? If so expect a lot more atrocities, probably done as agitprop blaming them on Ukraine. Done not only to deceive the useful idiots in the West, but more importantly to get the Russian people in line for mobilization. It’s what he does best. He has zero military background or experience.
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1822711723276804226
Your link made me do some looking on the web and it appears that is not an isolated incident regarding high officers. So Putin needs to be prepared for Stauffenbergowich. Putin may be living in interesting times, as the Chinese put forth.
I really don’t understand what the endgame is here and semi-relatedly the calculus under why Putin tolerates this. I think if he really was the Hitleresque brutal dictator he is made out to be it seems he would not tolerate this type of activity. It seems to me that he has shown remarkable restraint to not wipe whole Ukrainian cities off the map in response to these continued incursions, or at least threaten to. I feel strongly that if the US were in a similar situation that would absolutely been the case, which I think is evidenced by our willingness to use far more expansive bombing campaigns overseas for much smaller slights than outright invasion.
The reason I bring in the US by comparison is that I have really no idea what is going on in this “war” which seems to have no clear attainable goals. The one thing I am most certain of, and this was famously noted by Obama during the tail end of his presidency, is that the US population will never support sending our troops into Ukraine or outright war with Russia over Ukraine (nor should we for god’s sake!), and this will always be a more important issue for Russia than the US. Given that understanding again it seems to me that the amount of escalation available to Russia is tremendous, in particular as long as they avoid nuclear weapons, which seems like a trivial task. The amount of bombing that the Israelis have unleashed on Gaza seems more than what Russia has dropped (particular on civilian population centers) in several years of conflict. To me only 1 of 2 things can be true, either this is a real “war” where both sides can win on the battlefield or, conversely, only one side can win and this is really for some other strategic amorphous reason. If its 2, as I feel quite strongly it likely is, then I feel deeply in my heart that this “war” should end immediately. We should pursue peace over needless death, full stop.
We shouldn’t allow ourselves, as hard as it may be not to, to be guided by sympathy for the wronged innocent Ukrainians, while ignoring the root causes of the conflict that derive their need for sympathy. It is an insane policy to say that the individual stories of bravery and heroism should be used to scapegoat a literal decade of western political machinations (starting most recently in 2013/2014) and hundreds of billions of dollars in arms, “aid”, and lets be honest bribes/corruption, that has totally warped Ukranian civil society. This is the same logic that has you spit on soldiers in Vietnam and ridicule and attack individuals deployed to Iraq, in other words, inane.
I guess the TL; DR is “if this is a “real” war then it seems to me that Putin has a tremendous amount of room , many multiples of what we have seen thus far, to escalate and its a miracle that these incursions haven’t led him to do so.
Landis,
Impressive. Here’s what you may be leaving out though — can he in fact really unleash the “many multiples” of force you imagine he has at hand? (I mean of course he “can” but can he without risking devastation?) He’s bungled this almost irretrievably I’m tempted to say but I’m not a military expert and hesitate to say that he in fact has in the presence here of retired professional military men and former intelligence officers. Finland is now in NATO and US bases are either there already or soon will be. Are the 64 F-35s nuclear capable fighter-bombers on order in place yet? Right over the border from St Petersburg. Stealth fighters. Forget about drones – those planes are devastatingly powerful with the capability to destroy military and civilian infrastructure quickly and irreparably. I wrote a comment last week which said that Iran won’t do anything to Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh because it would amount for them to outright suicide. And events so far have borne me out, in fact the new Iranian president has already hinted as much recently. That’s obvious in Iran’s case. My point here is to wonder out loud if it isn’t also true for Russia, impossible as that may be for most of us retired cold war baby boomers to imagine. I won’t be able given my limitations to flesh out this idea sufficiently, but I suspect it is close to being true or close enough to being true enough.
Landis,
I disagree that Putin has “a tremendous amount of room, many multiples of what we have seen thus far, to escalate.” The Russian military does not have the capability to conduct a wider sustained bombing and missile campaign against Ukraine. Ukrainian AD/A2 has been effective enough to keep Russia’s Aerospace Forces out of Ukrainian airspace and fairly effective against Russia’s missile threat. The latter is also due to the limited capability of the Russian missile force. They have yet been able to sustain a concentrated campaign against Ukrainian cities or infrastructure. It is only recently that they have demonstrated the capability to successfully target Ukraine’s power infrastructure, but even here, Ukraine has managed to keep the lights on.
On the front lines, Russia has always been strong in EW, but Ukraine is matching them. Russia has adapted to drone warfare. I judge them as the second most advanced military in this field behind the Ukrainians. Russian artillery has been weakened by attrition, but the use of FAB glide bombs and drones have mitigated the loss of artillery. Even so, Russian advances have been slow, limited and costly.
In short, I don’t think Russia can do much more short of nuclear war, which I doubt they are willing to risk, and a full mobilization for a WWII level war and the associated casualties. I’m not certain Putin is ready to push for that kind of phyrric victory.
There’s 38mm people in Ukraine, much in the East which has been largely untouched. I’m not a military expert, but if the goal was to kill hundreds of thousands of civilians in cities like Rivne, could Russia with the maximum of its conventional capabilities not achieve that? I read that there are only 20 or so pilots for Ukraine’s F-16s, could the Russians really not find and kill these pilots if they were willing to accept thousands in casualties? These are honest questions, and ultimately this is the escalation I envision and speak of. To use the maximum of its hypersonic and other capabilities to kill civilians. Because the thing is, I go back to what I said initially, I don’t think if Putin even kills 1mm Ukranians that the US will risk outright war with Russia in defense. I can’t say enough how much I personally abhor all of this violence, but it really makes me wonder. Russia I think will kill 1mm Ukranians before they let it join NATO, that much has seemed clear to me from the onset. I don’t know how we can consciously ignore that apparent reality and call ourselves on the right side of this?
Landis,
Russia has not been able to knock the Ukrainian Air Force out of action and have not found an answer for the Ukrainian AD/A2 in two and a half years. Putin want the rest of the Donbas very badly. He has been pouring poorly trained and poorly equipped cannon fodder into the fight for over a year. He’s making progress against a weakened and tired Ukrainian defense, but only slowly. He’s keeping up with the casualties with his current mobilization efforts, but not much more. I don’t think he has the capability to kill a million Ukrainians unless this goes on for several more years. In that time, the Russian Armed Forces would also lose a million ill trained mobiks and most of the equipment they have left.
The Ukrainians will not quit resisting, especially after seeing Russian behavior in the occupied territories. Stopping the war is not up to us. It is up to the Ukrainians and Russians. Given that reality, I support the Ukrainian’s struggle to keep their independence and believe I am on the right side of this.
TTG –
This is a long sarcastic comment by an Oleksandr on Telegram this morning. He explains how marvelously the “demilitarization” of Ukraine is going. Demi and Dena — the diminutive double duo (demilitarization and denazification). I’m so original early this morning after 72 years of insomnia. Just think – Larry Johnson, Moon of Alabama and the Duran have no idea who Demi and Dena are, but we do.
“Demi and Dena — meet Dilly and Dally.”
Title of the history of the SVO of 2022 – 2xyz.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/13444?comment=4198678
Did they demilitarize Ukraine properly? Before the demilitarization, the hohols couldn’t even dream of such weapons as they have now! They asked the Redhead for the unfortunate Javelins and Stingers – 4 years. And now, in exchange for the Soviet junk, they got: Highmars, tanks, Bradleys, Strikers, Caesars, ATACAMS, Stormshadows, Scalps and even aircraft… Oh, how “successfully” the demilitarization is going. And now they are also building factories for the production of NATO weapons on their own territory. 😁👍
They disarmed great, right? What do you think, Seryozhka??? Do you like this “disarmament”?
The Black Sea Fleet was reduced by 30-40%. The rest fled to Novorossiysk, away from the drones and missiles. Previously, the flight time of NATO missiles was 20-30 minutes, and now Finland/Sweden are in NATO. The flight time is now – St. Petersburg – 1.5 minutes, Moscowbad – 12 minutes. 12 NATO bases are being built on the border (in Finland). Before the War, they did not plan a single one. Finland/Sweden were neutral and non-aligned. Disputed territory with the Finns – Karelia (which before the Finnish-Russian war, was part of Finland…. The CSTO has shown itself to be a meaningless sham Union. A Union on paper and nothing more. On the border – more and more NATO troops are being pulled together. The EU countries have begun to restore their military-industrial complex by leaps and bounds. Military equipment factories, the production of ammunition, many countries have returned mandatory military service instead of contract service and also KOOOOCH “demilitarization”!
They demilitarized well, right? A bunch of refugees, a bunch of destroyed infrastructure and civilian facilities. Sanctions and dependence on China in EVERYTHING. A terrible failure in demography. And this is “we haven’t even started yet”! It’s scary to imagine what will happen when we “start”. 👍
With which I congratulate all of you, lovers of a little war and seizing someone else’s, and I congratulate you. The only pleasant and “positive” moment is the children of those who called and calls, they did not go to this Slaughter and will not go. At most, they will sit it out in the deep rear and walk around in camouflage somewhere near operational headquarters, for reporting and to show photos to the stupid Plebs (Deep People) (and even then I doubt it). All of them are sick / weak / untrained / unfit / needed in the rear. Oh, well, another “positive” – the murderers were amnestied en masse and sent home. To finish killing / raping those – who have not yet had time. 👍😁
And they are driving and will drive to the front – a simple Ivan from the village / poor regions and now conscripts (according to Gurulev, conscripts are excellent warriors). While the children of those who started this massacre are sitting in NATO countries and cheating on whores there at the resorts of the Emirates. And I haven’t even written the 10th part of “demilitarization” yet…
Landis,
There is a scene in Lord of War:
Yuri Orlov: But in the Iran-Iraq war you sold guns to both sides
Simeon Weisz: Did you ever consider that I wanted both sides to lose?
The neocons want this war to go on for as long as possible. Just like the Iran-Iraq war. They want both sides to lose. Just like the Iran-Iraq war.
I appreciate as always the military insight, especially as it runs counter to my priors that the Russians could do far more damage via bombing and missiles, especially away from the front, than they have.
I think James hits the nail on the head of at least what my fear is, that this “war” is really just a macabre death march, with the goal of maximizing the quagmire. I believe Lloyd Austin testified as much to the US congress when he said the goal was to degrade the capabilities of the Russian Federation. I am reminded of the sanctions placed on Saddam’s Iraq that killed 500k children for similar reasons, to “degrade” the leadership’s capabilities. It seems whatever strategic goal here, the mass death and destruction just isn’t worth it, most especially if it at the same time risks true global and possible nuclear conflict.
One concern I have had is if you draw the timeline out for the war game long enough, when does it behoove Russia to make a first strike in a major way, either conventionally or even conceptually nuclear? Are we really to believe that if Russia uses a single tactical nuke in Ukraine that we will nuke Moscow and imperil all life? These calculus’s are no doubt the things of nightmares, and seem fanciful at some level, but the longer this draws out and the more desperate the situation becomes the more likely they are to at least be explored it seems to me.
Landis,
My understanding is that Russia was told by US officials that if they use a tactical nuke in Kiev then the US will respond by wreaking destruction on Russia by the use of “conventional” weapons. Of course I don’t know the details of the threat but there are various devastating weapons that fall under the heading “conventional” — many people, for instance are unaware that the WW2 fire bombings of Tokyo killed far more people than the sum total of the deaths attributed to the two atomic bombings. In a comment above I tried minimally to outline how serious is the threat posed by say the F-35s destined for Finland. It’s impossible for me to imagine that the Russian administration doesn’t get that since they are familiar with those weapons and many others. And don’t forget the common take on Putin — that he cares mainly about himself and little else (a trait shared with many dictators). The Kremlin and all his residences would disappear in the first hour after use of a nuke in Ukraine — or at least that is my guess. It doesn’t give me any comfort at all but it is very probably true. And another thing — would the RF missile crews (who know all about this topic) follow a command to use a TN in Ukraine, or anywhere else? They have families. But on the long drawn-out scenario I think you’re right. The Russians, unfortunately for them, are led by bunglers who didn’t think this out. Did you see the televised dressing down given to all the commanders and high ministers on Feb 22, 2024 two days before the invasion? No one thought he was making a wise decision unless I’m very much mistaken. But they can’t do anything about it in a state run by the secret police.
F&L,
“And don’t forget the common take on Putin — that he cares mainly about himself and little else (a trait shared with many dictators).”
Thinking like this is the result of our propaganda against Putin. While he is an autocrat, he does not have total control of the institutions of Russia. And in my impression, he came across as a Russian nationalist. Not dictator wannabe like Trump.
“The Kremlin and all his residences would disappear in the first hour after use of a nuke in Ukraine — or at least that is my guess.”
Not likely. If that happens, many cities in the continental US will be also be destroyed. We are not going to risk Washington DC for Kiev or any European metropolis.
TonyL-
Supposedly the threat of fast conventional retaliation on Ru for a Ru nuclear hit on Ukraine was formulated by ex CIA director Petraeus and passed on through channels. He specifically said conventional retaliation and said the Ru Black sea fleet would be sunk and the Ru Armies in Ukraine destroyed. By the Air Force I guess. Would Ru vaporize US cities in retaliation for a conventional strike however bad? I suppose they might if it met their criteria of being “an existential threat to the RF.” One hopes that cooler heads would prevail.
Look what these two psychos Musk & Trump were talking about last night.
https://x.com/zeithistoriker/status/1823178581700411827
Musk: “Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed but now they’re full cities again.”
Trump: “That’s great. That’s great.”
Musk: “Yeah so it’s not as scary as people think.”
https://x.com/zeithistoriker/status/1823359980205969518
Musk: it’s not even dangerous in Fukushima. I actually flew there and ate locally grown vegetables on TV to prove it.
Trump: Yeah, but you haven’t been feeling so well lately and I’m worried about it.
————–
So that’s how much Elon values:
1- Cities
2- Hundreds of thousands of human lives.
3- His SpaceX contracts with the Pentagon if Trump is elected.
4- Implanting chips in human brains which was done by the Spanish fascists years ago – they demonstrated it by crippling bulls remotely in bull fights.
Even Petraeus, a 4 star general and former CIA director doesn’t talk about nukes as cavalierly as those two cretins.
Landis – Correction — near the ending the date should be Feb 22, 2022, not 2024.
It is exactly the fire bombing of tokyo that makes me thing the Russians could wreak much more havoc on the civilian population if they wanted. I’m not talking about battlefield exchange, but indiscriminate bombing away from the fighting. I don’t want this, but at some point I have to think Russia is not going to just let Ukraine invade it and continue to attack inside Russia without consequences. I don’t think Nukes are really part of the calculus, my point in mentioning them was more just to illustrate the extremes of my argument that we dont care enough about Ukraine to go to major war over Russia with it. The idea of the US just annihilating Russian cities with conventional means doesnt seem like it avoids major war.
Landis,
I agree that the Russian probably “could wreak much more havoc on the civilian population if they wanted.” They may not really want to do that because, deep down, most Russians see Ukrainians as brothers or at least cousins. However, they cannot wreak more havoc because of the effectiveness of Ukrainian AD/A2. That keeps the majority of Russian missiles and planes at bay.
I also agree that annihilating Russian cities by conventional means would be foolish and would very likely lead to a wider war. The idea of destroying Russian forces inside Ukraine by air attacks would be effective and far less likely to lead to a wider war.
Comment on Telegram this morning in reference to the Kursk incursion. Translated. Yes there are this many homeless.
—————-
“From Kyiv in three days to 121,000 refugees in one day!
All according to the plan of the third year of the war…”
Putin was presented with that figure today at a meeting. What I forgot to add is that the 120,000 homeless or refugee number was projected to increase to 200,000 rather rapidly. FYI – Kursk oblast population is approximately 1 million.
Also reported — that the UAF now has 2,000 civilian hostages. Though the distinction between the hundreds of prisoners of war they captured and the hostage category is unclear to me.
Bortnikov bullsh!t.
But maybe 2000 POWs or close to it. Many are teenage conscripts. Kyiv is going to have to build more POW camps.
Leith
Probably jin apan early thursday aest.rpm 8 9
⭐️ Warning. Elderly or hypertensive individuals – there is a risk of dying of laughter. Proceed with caution.
—————————————————-
https://t.me/logikamarkova/13428?comment=4192640
‼️ Meet the new term in Putin’s newspeak – “voluntary evacuation”.
Russians are not fleeing, they are evacuating voluntarily.
They voluntarily abandoned their homes and property, voluntarily grabbed their children in the middle of the night and voluntarily evacuated.
And they decided so themselves.
They listened to the victories of the Russian army, watched Apti Alaudinov’s TikToks – and voluntarily evacuated.
Something like mass entertainment, a new type of active tourism.
Why say “almost 100 thousand Russians have become refugees.” It’s unpleasant.
If you say this on TV, people may decide that not everything is going according to plan.
Therefore, we are waiting for new propaganda headlines.
“More and more residents of the Kursk region are getting to know the beauty of other regions of Russia.”
“Residents of the Belgorod region about the Arctic: we like everything here.”
“10 fashionable destinations for voluntary evacuation this season.”
If Ukraine’s goal in Kursk is the NPP at Kurchatov, there could be some “fissionable destinations for voluntary evacuation”…
And in other news today, smoke was billowing from at least one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Russians claim it was the result of Ukrainian “shelling” or drone attacks; Ukraine claims that Russians started the fire. IMO, the Russian explanation is far more credible.
Seems likely that the timing – in relation to the Kursk offensive – is intentional. In both cases (ZNPP & KNPP), Ukraine seems to be poking at a very scary Russian vulnerability. Ukrainian shelling forced Russia to shut down the ZNPP a year or two ago, but it could still be turned into a Dirty Bomb (though citizens of both countries would suffer). The KNPP could also be turned into a Dirty Bomb, but only Russians would suffer.
IMO, this is very dangerous brinkmanship by Ukraine. Attacking a Nuclear Power Plant with any kind of explosives is *terrorism*: the point is to gain leverage by create panic in the general populace.
elkern,
Do you believe Ukraine dropped burning tires into the ZNPP cooling tower? That’s absurd. The tire fire makes for a frightening sight, but it does not affect the safety of the reactors. But you’re right about this being an effort to gain leverage by create panic in the general populace.
The story I heard was that a Ukrainian attack drone’s strike (there may have been more than one) ignited some plastic materials which were stored in the tower. The version with Russians lightning tires sounds like Ukrainian and American propaganda to me because CBS and CNN news don’t even mention the drone version. That’s not objective professional reporting, not when there’s another plausible version and you don’t even mention it.
TTG –
My working hypothesis is that Ukraine attacked the cooling tower with explosives via drones. I consider this to be the most likely scenario because it fits the reports from the only independent source I’ve found: the IAEA.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-242-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
“International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) witnessed thick dark smoke coming from the north-western area of the plant, after hearing multiple explosions throughout the evening.”
“The IAEA team reported hearing an explosion today at the same time the ZNPP informed them that a drone had allegedly struck one of the plant’s two cooling towers.”
““These reckless attacks endanger nuclear safety at the plant and increase the risk of a nuclear accident. They must stop now,” said Director General Grossi.”
Of course, it’s possible that Russia faked all the evidence, but that theory is (1) more complex, so it fails Occam’s Razor, and (2) requires us to (again) believe that Russia is willing to damage expensive infrastructure that it expects to control for decades/centuries.
Interesting that Kursk almost sounds like the English language word Curse. And there’s the famous tragedy of the sunken Kursk mega-submarine in the first year of Putin’s rule — a tragedy exacerbated by Putin’s very cynical and cold-hearted handling of the disaster. Russians had voting rights rather than the sham they do have it would have cost him his Presidency.
So I looked it up. Kursk in Cyrillic is Курск.
К in Russian is used as a shortened ко which means to.
К and Ко each mean “to” as in I go to the store.
Курс is a Russian word for “course” in the sense of a route or pathway.
So Курск …. Курс к would mean “the course to.”
The Put of Putin is in Russian Пут of Путин.
There’s no Пут in Russian that I know of but there is
Путь … The Ь is a soft sign, not really a letter in our sense more like an accent. Путь mean “path” or “way.” Certainly suggests “Курс к” or “course to” and “way to”.
Putin is often sarcastically refered to on Russian social media comments as “the path” or “the way” with far eastern zen overtones which poke fun at his judo / martial arts expertise and videos of him sparring with judo partners and connect it to his name Путин. I guess that’s it for this comment for now. Except that Russian “ин” (in) translates as Yin in translate apps.
——————-
Except that Russian “ин” (in) translates as Yin in translate apps.
Testing nitwits? Yes, indeed, but only if you erase the мягкий знак. Инь и Ян. I should return to my Russian lections. 😉
Leander,
This Russian man Aleks says it all so much more elagantly.
https://x.com/negatiotion/status/1823339813002412272
Курск его породил, Курск его и убьёт.
Kursk gave birth to him, Kursk will kill him.
According to sources in Sweden, Russia has started to move soldiers from Ukraine to the invaded areas. There is much speculation of how far Ukraine is planning to go and some reports say they are building defensive positions. It seems Putin understands that mobilizing a lot of recruits will require him to tell people that there is a real war going on and that will just increase his political problems. But if he has to move too many soldiers from Ukraine, he will more than likely to find more incursions into Russia. This is why the Scandinavian build up in the north matters, because it cannot be left alone. He may now have a FAFO situation.
I am not very optimistic about the progress. Ukrainians still haven’t secured Korenovo and Martynovka and Russians still control eastern part of Sudzha. This part of the border is heavily forested with limited road network, so the road through Sudzha is the only supply road for the whole force.
This is probably why the Russians didn’t have a strong border presence, they are having their Ardennes moment, they didn’t expect the Ukrainians to attack here because the area is strategically unimportant and logistically limited. But the same is true for Ukrainians, they needed to secure Sudzha, because this would have been their main logistics hub and they needed Korenovo to provide a lateral supply road.
I think that the Ukrainian offensive has already culminated and that they will be forced to pull back in a few weeks at most. Now that the element of surprise is gone there is no point in engaging Russia in attritional warfare from hastily prepared defenses.
Russian Army had some warning prior to the Kursk incursion that Ukraine was massing troops at the border. But they disregarded those warnings. True or false? If true was it incompetence? Or did they write it off as just a phony provocation by Budanov’s HUR?
Bloomberg quote: “Gerasimov and top officials seemingly dismissed intelligence warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were gathering near the border with Russia’s western Kursk region as much as two weeks before they began the assault, and nobody briefed President Vladimir Putin, according to a person close to the Kremlin. Defensive forces inside Russia were caught off guard and offered little initial resistance to the Ukrainian advance.” Supposedly from a Russian source.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/russia-calls-kursk-emergency-after-kyiv-sends-troops-over-border
900 days in, Ukraine successfully attacks Russia w/ what appears to be main combat force along multiple lines, each w/ both tactical value & strategic potential. the Russian army is reduced to 3rd world street fighting … tire burning at a high visibility site. their Donbass troops may be falling back to into Mother Russia to be chewed up upon new ground. frontline NATO members (11) are watching their borders very closely while sharpening war-fighting skills. now they move into week 2 – initial objectives being realized via a plan that appears to live on. Russia acts hapless – if Ukraine Army lasts a month inside, it’s a new game along more classical lines. Putin will hope no one notices, while Russia will begin to disappear into yet another darkness of their own making.
Lars. “Putin Pals”.
The chickenhawk’s cry. Whoever does not go along with the delusions foisted upon us by the western press is a “Putin Pal”. Or in Germany, a “Putinversteher”. And can get prosecuted for it. In England, a “Russian shill.”
Was Colonel Lang a “Putin pal” when he opposed so resolutely US and western actions in Syria and Afghanistan? Or a “Shill” when he deplored the takeover of State by the neocons:-
https://web.archive.org/web/20090609172955/http:/www.mepc.org/journal_vol11/0406_lang.asp
Did writing “Drinking the Koolaid” make the Colonel a “Hussein pal”?
And to make the scrubby Western intervention in Ukraine since 2014 into some sort of grand patriotic venture that only “Putin Pals” can see won’t work is directly at odds with common sense. The West seems to be crammed with fanatical Russophobes who’d dearly like to see Russia smashed but have neither the guts nor the materiel to do the job themselves.
Instead they push the unfortunate Ukrainian PBI into the firing line. Cheering on the resultant carnage safely from behind their video screens. Not even chickenhawks. Proxy chickenhawks. We do the strutting and the Ukrainians, at our behest, do the dying. For shame.
As for the practicalities I can only say to you, Lars, what I’ve just said to Eric. Dispense with the proxy martial chest thumping and look at the facts. This war, in this theatre, was never winnable:-
Eric – Yup. This is a crushing defeat for the West. This man I don’t like but he’s not a fool and he sees that too. Wish he’d pronounce hegemony right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRBfrEtLWBw
Was the defeat in Ukraine obvious at the start? Yes. That’s what I reckoned in 2022. Still do. But look. One’s opinion on who will win can’t be dependent on one’s opinion on who one wants to win.
Silly example: if your country happened to be at war with Canada then as a fellow member of the Commonwealth I’d of course want Canada to win. But I’d have to be realistic. I don’t think Canada would have much of a chance and it’d be dishonest to pretend otherwise.
Russia, with superb generals, a solid industrial base, and a large population is at war with a country that has none of these things. QED. Russia will win whether we want it to or not.
If you think Europoodles jumping up and down will make much odds, think again. All we in Europe can get up to is dirty tricks – I’m still worried about those NPP’s – and damn all else. The Euros talk big but they’d run sobbing to Uncle Sam if the Russians ever sent one of those fancy rockets their way.
And your own country’s not in a position to afford much help either. I don'[t go along with the notion that you’ve only got a boutique army. You’ve got lots of powerful weapons, fabulous logistics, and that recent set-to in the Syrian desert showed your troops are still first class soldiers.
No damn use. Obama was right. In this theatre the Russians have “escalatory dominance”. If you did try to put anything useful in in Ukraine then:-
1, You appear to be technologically inferior to the Russians. You don’t have much that can cope with those fancy rockets.
2. You haven’t got the manpower over there and won’t have.
3. If you tried anything serious you’d have to base your stuff in Europe. That means Europe itself would be a war zone and we’d again be confronted with the phenomenon of Europoodle chickenhawks running around sobbing.
4. The American electorate wouldn’t accept the sacrifices they’d have to make if you went toe to toe with Russia in Europe.
5. If you got round 1 – 4 it’d still be no use because it’d go nuclear. Rule one in modern military conflict is that the Russians and the Americans will not fight each other. Just because it’d risk nuclear. Biden will not risk Chicago frying for Kiev. Nor Harris nor Trump.
All that was obvious in 2022 and it’s obvious now. The only hope you had of defeating Russia lay in wrecking the Russian economy. But the sanctions war failed and your hopes of victory with it.
…………………………..
As it happens, Lars, I’m a “Donbass pal”. So what? Even were I a “Biden pal” or a “Scholz pal” that wouldn’t change the realities of this war. It is a fundamental error to think we’re going to win just because we want to.
EO,
There are different varieties of Koolaid. You seem to be guzzling down the Kremlin variety. Back in February 2022, the conventional view was that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not stand up to the Russian SMO for very long. It was my view as well, especially given the superb performance of Russia in Syria. The weaponry we provided to Ukraine was suited to a continued guerrilla war. We begged Zelenskiy to leave Kyiv before he was killed or captured. But the Russian success in Syria was a one off. The Russian military was not the brilliantly led, well equipped machine many of us thought it was. The unstoppable Kinzhals were indeed stoppable. It was a bumbling mess for the most part, still large and dangerous, but not the formidable and even unstoppable war machine many of us thought it was. However, that war machine is very capable at defense… or at least it was. Why was there no equivalent of the Suvorkin line in Russia proper?
Even the Russian economy is feeling the strains of this third year of war and sanctions. Elvira Nabiullina, Putin’s economic miracle worker, recently noted the hard times ahead necessitating rising interest rates and tightened belts. Russia is suffering from a severe labor shortage which also affects mobilization efforts. The war economy cannot keep up with the losses of equipment. Even the vast Soviet era war reserves are being exhausted. A bright spot for Russia is her continuing ability to circumvent sanction on the Western electronics necessary for her weapons. But the sanctions are slowly bringing the rail system, the heart of Russia’s civilian and war economy, to a literally screeching halt for lack of quality western roller bearings.
For NATO, the last two plus years has caused an awakening. Putin’s invasion gave the once aimless alliance a renewed reason for being. Sweden and Finland joined the alliance. Defense industries and militaries are being rebuilt. Despite what Putin’s talking heads proclaim, the Russian Army has absolutely no chance of ever driving to the Rhine. It can’t reach the Vistula or Bug for that matter. A massive US military presence is no longer necessary to defend Europe. It is now a matter of defending the front line states and it will be done in a far different manner than what was planned during the height of the last cold war. Drone and missile defense is recognized as critical and id being worked on. The defeat of the Kinzhal at the hands of the Patriot proved this is a most doable mission.
No, my friend, the West has not lost in 2022 and has not lost today either.
TTG,
The Russian deployment to Syria turned out to be a few squadrons of air w/ground support and a few battalions of advisors/MPs. The Syarians did the heavy combat.
Fred,
The Russian genius was in guiding the Syrian forces to develop into an effective force in their own way with their own leaders. Far better than trying to make them into a mini-Russian force. The Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria was another stroke of genius.
EO,
Russia can’t even control their new republics in the Donbas. How you construe that situation as a defeat of the west – the entire west! – escapes me entirely. Now Russia has been invaded. The Ukrainians are setting up defenses and logistics that suggest they intend to stay in Russia for a while. They are controlling a major Russian fuel distribution hub. They will make Russia beg on its knees to get that back. How embarrassing for Putin! I think his days are numbered.
I told your pals at LJ’s trash bin that Russia was going to lose because they are screwing around and not finishing the job. They were allowing “the west” and Ukraine to learn and build. I further concluded that Russia wasn’t finishing the job because they can’t; making the prognosis for their situation even worse. That was a year an half ago. At what point do you concede you’re wrong? Or do you merely decline into all pure lies? Like LJ now proclaiming that half of the Ukrainian force that invaded Russia has been wiped out.
Fred, I don’t comment on LJ’s site. He was uncivil to the Colonel. That aside, he’s one of the best analysts around on the Russo-Ukrainian war. As he would be, of course, given his vast experience.
Goes off the deep end sometimes so I’m careful reading him. I’m not sure, but I believe he was recently suggesting the Trump assassination attempt was an inside job. Still don’t believe a word of it. Lone wolf and sloppy security, that’s all.
Don’t understand the focus on the fuel hub. If the Ukrainians don’t want the fuel to flow they can just blow up the pipeline. Runs through their territory.
Main thing about the Kursk incursion is that they failed to get to the NPP. There’s rumoured to be a storage facility for tactical nuclear for Iskanders nearby too. If that’s true, the Ukrainians drew a blank there as well.
Good. Said before, NATO/Kiev are far too eager to fool around with nuclear and dirty bombs. Shoigu’s already had to warn them off once and I thought that had put a stopper on it. Seems not. I think you’re a bit of an innocent, Fred, believing we wouldn’t get up to bad stuff like that.
On the Kursk incursion, I stuck my neck out at the beginning and said that it was another of those dumb PR operations NATO/Kiev get up to. And that, NPP now safed, it’d be nothing more than another turkey shoot.
Our press will now spin that as an orderly retreat once they’ve “thought Putin a lesson.” Don’t be taken in. It’s another witless Hail Mary that will turn into a slaughter fest like the others.
This’d all be instructive, watching our generals and our puppet regime screwing up yet again. Except that in among the neo-Nazi true believers there are some very fine Ukrainian soldiers getting killed for nothing and that’s wrong. They deserve better than that.
Ponder on logistics if you think this is a genuine armoured thrust.
EO,
That is Eric’s comment, not mine. Please spend the extra 5 seconds necessary to get your facts straight on who you area addressing.
Fred – “taught Putin a lesson”, should have been.
EO,
I’m still not Eric.
Damnation, Fred! Done that before too. Promised not to do it again if I remember.
Now I’ve broken a solemn promise.
No problem. I’ll immediately apply the Scholz remedy. Pretend it never happened.
Should get away with it. He does.
Well, I honestly don’t think it’s going to work, TTG. Never did. As for this latest episode, Kursk, I do put it down to a Ukrainian PR offensive, with the NPP as a bonus if they’d ever managed to get that far.
As for the opening days of the Russian invasion, what they did with forces small in comparison to the opposing Ukrainian forces was undoubtedly impressive. But it’s what the Russians didn’t do that determined the entire course of the war.
What we expected at the time was for the Russians to defeat the Ukrainians in short order and then for them be faced with a long and wearing guerilla war.
As you say, the weapons we had provided them with were just right for guerilla war. No Russian convoy in Ukraine would have been safe and no Russian detachment able to move around without fearing sniping.
To stop that would have required intensive policing, probably brutal policing given that they’re pretty brutal in that part of the world, and that in itself would have led to more resistance. In no part of Ukraine is the population homogeneous so there’d have been informers and reprisals against informers. That would have added to the mess. Back in ’22 I used to say on English blogs that had the Russians gone that way they’d have been stuck in Northern Ireland squared.
To explain that outside England I should say that in Northern Ireland it took half the British army to defeat what was reckoned to be no more than three thousand active fighters. Took a long time, too. Decades. A Ukrainian resistance drawn from hundreds of thousand of active fighters, trained exclusively in small unit and urban fighting by us, armed with the cornucopia of just the right weapons for that sort of work that we’d given them before ’22, would have kept the Russians busy indefinitely.
That was our intention. In the opening phases of the SMO the expression we heard on so many lips was “We’ll make Ukraine Russia’s Afghanistan”. And so it would have been. Except that the Russians side-stepped it all.
The Russians didn’t do what we’d expected. They didn’t smash into Ukraine and take it over. They had nothing like enough troops for that anyway. They simply established themselves where they wanted to be and sat there, with easy logistics and within a friendly population, waiting for that great mass of men and materiel to come to them to be disposed of at relatively small cost in their own troops.
Their superiority in artillery fire meant that that ratio was always going to be in their favour. Their ability to strike rear areas and enemy troop and equipment concentrations with precision weapons made it more so. We’ve been looking, in fact, at a turkey shoot for the last couple of years and more.
That was their strategy well before their big defence line was established and it remains their strategy today.
The NATO generals were too dumb to work that out. Judging by the performance of the Milley/Cavoli/Radakin trio and their staffs it’s a miracle they’re not too dumb to breathe. Why is it that duds get promoted to the top jobs in our armies so often? Something ought to be done about that, by the way, but that’s another subject.
It’s now more offensive attrition than defensive attrition but the principle remains the same. When it’s done they’ll neutralise remnant Ukraine – a political solution if possible but a military solution if not.
It’s what happens afterwards that’s always interested me. The Europoodles will still be fluffing around with their Cold War II nonsense and doing their limited best to make a thorough nuisance of themselves. It’ll be a very limited best so the Russians might let it ride. If, however, the Europoodles make too much of a nuisance of themselves the Russians might well put a stop to it by imposing reverse sanctions.
Since Europe is still dependent on Russian raw material and fuel, and has been going downhill economically for years anyway that, TTG, could give us Europeans quite a rough time. As I’ve been pointing out elsewhere for a couple of years now, no one in the Berlin/Brussels/ Westminster freak show ever worries about that contingency. They should.
EO,
Nothing has gone according to plan in this war for either side. That’s especially true for the Kremlin’s SMO, both in it’s early attempt to quickly replace the government in Kyiv and in its ensuing war of attrition.
Ukraine has become Russia’s Afghanistan, but many times worse. Russian casualties and costs in equipment are many times higher than if this was purely a war of occupation. Russia is facing a guerrilla war in the occupied territories and are reacting just as they would if they occupied all of Ukraine. They are forced to fight a resistance with that intensive, brutal policing, the necessity to guard their facilities and movements from sabotage. They make arrests and deportations of Ukrainians in the occupied territories just as the Kremlin did in the occupied Baltics. The current resistance is more effective because they are deeply connected to the SBU in free Ukraine and coordinate their resistance activities with Ukrainian military operations. The resistance also provides valuable intelligence to those military operations.
TTG – yes, it’s a mixed population in the Donbass, just like everywhere else in Ukraine but rather more so. I think I’ve said before that that was clear just after the Maidan. I happened to know of families in Slaviansk at the time Strelkov was getting himself into a tangle there. Those families were not greeting the federalists as liberators. On the contrary they were all of them sitting tight and hoping Strelkov would just go away.
Seen that pattern of a mixed population repeated elsewhere, even in the heavily Russian or pro-Russian cities like Mariupol, or Odessa for that matter. That’s why I always thought Minsk 2 was by far the best solution for the Ukraine as a whole.
You probably think I’m going overboard when I criticise Berlin for its part in this mess. But I’m still furious Merkel and then Scholz deliberately screwed up Minsk. That, after the blasted woman had arranged it in the first place!
Merkel announcing the deception publicly blew Germany’s credibility as a player, and by extension that of the EU. That’s why the Europoodles have to stand in line to get Putin to take their calls. No point in agreeing anything with them because they can be relied on not to hold to agreements.
Grrrr. If you want to see an entire continent committing felo de se come over our side of the Atlantic and watch mini-Barbarossa Scholz going through his paces.
But back to the subject. Minsk 2 failing, one side or the other has to own the more heavily pro-Russian areas. Before 2014 I reckon most in those areas didn’t care that much. After 2014, they do. It’s not that satisfactory a solution, but on balance I reckon the still to an extent mixed population of the Donbass will be safer and happier as Russian citizens rather than as Ukrainian.
The terrorist acts you mention are actively promoted by Kiev. That’s another of the reasons remnant Ukraine is going to be neutralised one way or the other. Budanov boasting publicly of running assassination operations into the Donbass as well as into Russia – according to the American press with CIA assistance! – has made that certain if it wasn’t certain before. The Russians don’t want that continuing indefinitely. Nor the people of the Donbass.
in Russia, Kool-Aid drinks you. {& it’s spiked w/ vodka}
English –
I’m also a Donbas Pal. The entire population of the Donbas Basin needs to get out from under the thumbscrews of Putin’s torturers. This is a colonial war brought on by the Kremlin. Putin the Thief has looted Ukraine’s resources there – where he ships iron ore, coal, and lithium back to Russia. Putin the ChildSnatcher has kidnapped the children of Donbas and enslaved them in Russia. Ukrainians will fight on against the invasion and occupation of their homes no matter the cost, no matter if the West’s aid dries up.
Even Trump and his cohorts have seen the writing on the wall. In last nights Elon interview Trump claimed that he allegedly counseled Putin against invading Ukraine. He said he had warned Putin against taking action, saying, “I told him (Putin), ‘don’t do it. You can’t do it, Vladimir.” Trump added “He (Putin) said ’no way’, and I said ‘way’”. Obviously bollocks, he’s just trying to get on the right side of history. Trump’s good buddy the Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, says: “Ukrainian operation in Kursk region is bold, brilliant and beautiful. Keep it up. Putin started this, so kick his ass! Let them fight, give them weapons.” and “If you’re a retired F-16 pilot and you’re looking to fight for freedom, they will hire you here. They’re going to look throughout NATO nations for willing, retired fighter pilots to come help them until they can get their pilots trained.”
Based on Graham’s comment, perhaps we will soon see Colonel Lang’s prediction/dream of a modern day Flying Tigers volunteer group come into fruition?
I doubt it. They already have good trained pilots who’ve transitioned to F16s w/ NATO partners … & us too, I believe. We also don’t need US pilots shot down & captured by the Russians. There are lotsa retired F16 pilots from NATO countries that might take a contract w/ Ukraine (as they do w/ Arab countries).
That’s one hell of a quote, Leith:-
Trump’s good buddy the Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, says: “Ukrainian operation in Kursk region is bold, brilliant and beautiful. Keep it up. Putin started this, so kick his ass! Let them fight, give them weapons.” and “If you’re a retired F-16 pilot and you’re looking to fight for freedom, they will hire you here. They’re going to look throughout NATO nations for willing, retired fighter pilots to come help them until they can get their pilots trained.”
If Senator Graham is so keen on fighting Putin, why isn’t he pressing for the US to do so? Just another chickenhawk, by the looks of it. Leaves the real work to the Ukrainian PBI and to mercs.
War fever’s one thing. I can live with it though I can’t go with it. Proxy war fever is quite another. You get all the chest thumping and some other poor devil gets to do the dying. Not impressed.
Besides, we have no business helping neo-Nazis, let alone putting them in power in the first place. What with that and Gaza, do you not understand that American power and prestige, let alone Western power and prestige, has been irreparably damaged throughout the world by this squalid affair?
English –
I have never been a fan of Senator Graham. But I did agree with Colonel Lang when he proposed a Ukrainian Flying Tigers group. Not mercs but volunteers fighting against Putin’s fascist invasion of a neighbor. Graham might be a chicken hawk, but Colonel Lang is not.
As far as the Poor Bloody Infantry, that’s the Russian Army you are talking about. Half a million casualties and still climbing. 2000 POWs taken yesterday in Kursk, more today. And there is a report that some of those Russkii POWs taken today have volunteered to join the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion to fight against Putin. Apparently he is not as well liked in his own country as he is in yours.
I agree 100% with the first sentence in your last paragraph. If you truly believe that then you should stop propagandizing for Putin’s neo-nazis.
Leith – Colonel Lang detested neocons. He wrote often and powerfully against the policies of the State Department after it had been taken over by them. He called it the “Borg” and despaired over what they were doing with American foreign policy.
He was cutting about the leadership at the top of the US armed forces. Reckoned they were substandard and so they were. In a past era a soldier of his outstanding ability would have risen to the top. But he did not reckon much to his chances of getting promoted along with the “pampered princes” so moved into another field. There, too, he encountered opposition because he told the politicians what they should know rather than what they wanted to hear. You will recollect his near explosive meeting with Biden when he did the same there.
He was worried about the deterioration in the work of the American security and intelligence agencies. He reckoned, again, that the analysts were under pressure to come up with analyses the politicians wanted to hear rather than with facts they ought to know. Larry Johnson worries about that too and has said so explicitly. So do a whole heap of others who have worked in that field.
The Colonel believed that the later NATO expansion was plain wrong. Again, he said that explicitly – read his articles and comments. Nevertheless, he believed as a matter of honour that since the US had guaranteed the security of the new members it should hold by that guarantee. If you read his autobiography you will see that he was disturbed by the abandonment of US allies or proxies in the past and he did not want to see it happening once more in Eastern Europe.
That was his reason for backing US policy in this case. Set out in black and white. It would be better if we did not confuse straightforward and honourable reasoning like that with whatever passes for reasoning in the Washington cesspit. Colonel Lang was no neocon and should not be written down as one.
English –
I am also a hater of neocons. Always have been. Always will be. Like Colonel Lang.
But your reply glibly bypasses the fact that you earlier called out Graham for proposing the same volunteer pilots for Ukraine that Colonel Lang had proposed over two years ago. The Colonel was also not a fan of neo-nazis. Neither am I.
Leith – good point and you’re right. I failed to address it.
But the Colonel was not only an idealist. He was also a realist. Possible by now he’d be saying it was time for NATO/Kiev to stop feeding Ukrainians into the meatgrinder.
His view also was that the Donbass should not be part of Ukraine. I think you’ve forgotten that. His objection was to the Russians going further.
If you consider that an evasion, possibly it is. I can then only say that on the question of the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Colonel got it wrong. In my view. I don’t think he ever expected the pilgrims not to think for themselves, do you?
As for comparing the Colonel with one of your more notorious chickenhawks, I don’t think that’s right. If he’s capable of thinking beyond his own political advantage then, like Austin, Graham just wants to keep bleeding the Russians and be damned to the Ukrainian PBI he’s using for the purpose.
Whatever the Colonel’s reasoning would have been at this late stage, it wouldn’t have been that.
English –
Glad to hear that you can intuit and discern the thoughts of the departed Colonel Lang. Did you attend a seance? Or consulted Alistair Crowley’s ouija board? Or maybe you have a new phone app that communicates with the dead via AI?
In my opinion you are wrong. I believe Colonel Lang would have seen the devastation and human tragedy that Putin has brought on the Donbas. And he would have hated it. And I would also like to believe he would have been horrified at the Russian casualties being turned into mincemeat by the butcher-in-chief in the Kremlin. Just another week or two and it will reach 600,000 KIA, WIA, MIA, & POWs.
As I recall, Colonel Lang used to mock Senator Graham. I still mock Graham. I only mentioned his words to illustrate that Putinophilia is starting to wear thin among Trump’s friends and supporters. Many others in the world are starting to see what a monster Putin is. Correction – make that a moron as well as a monster. Please let me know what your ouija board says regarding Stalin’s opinion on Putin.
If you have 9 minutes of popcorn remaining this has big clear English subtitles already embedded. Most of you know who Soloviev is.
Vladimir Soloviev talks about Ukraine’s counter-invasion of Kursk.
https://youtu.be/ExPzPXW2usk
What is going on in drone world?
This is an eight minute commercial.
What it claims is that, even if comms are jammed,
AI, using just visual information, can guide a drone in for a kill.
https://youtu.be/F-pr9RA3AAA
Anybody have arguments against that?
Or a more interesting video?
Keith Harbaugh,
I knew drone technology was going this way, but I didn’t know it was this far along and in such a small package. Defense against drones is going to return to the old days of infantry defense against aircraft that we practices in the 70s.
Interesting – but creepy – link.
The Audio is obviously machine-generated, which is unpleasantly appropriate for a video praising [somewhat] [more] autonomous drones. (“Dr.” is pronounced “der”, etc).
More concerning, the video describes Auterion – the company developing these drones – as an “American” company, when it is actually based in Zurich.
The thing which really worries me, though, is that we are inevitably sliding toward designing robots to kill people. It will soon be far more efficient and cost-effective than paying or convincing people to “fulfill the objective”.
The road to hell is paved with “good” intentions…
Obviously, being a Putin Pal is painful and if Russian generals were that good, why have they not won yet? In addition, if you have a national bank rate of 18%, you do not have a healthy economy. The reality is that this war is not fought with theories and when you have to import North Korean ammo, of questionable quality, it shows that again, the Russian fondness for Potemkin’s methods are still around. It would not surprise me that after the war has ended, probably with a Russian retreat, it will take a generation to recover with a lot of strife. It is not as easy to be imperial, as it used to be.
Lars,
NATO ally Turkey must be a real basket case. On the positive side for their budget they gave Ukraine what?
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate
Yes, they are and political foolishness will do some real damage.
Lars,
NATO Strong! and how much did they lose by screwing one of their biggest trading partners, Russia, to placate the Borg?
Lars,
I even question the myth of Russian awesomeness in WW2. I think they just had a large population of tough dumb oxen that had no alternative to fighting to the death. They eventually just outnumbered the Germans who were hindered by severe logistics issues and a madman commander in chief.
Maybe if the Germans hadn’t been such murderous racist jerks and, instead, developed an approach of welcoming their Slavic cousins to the Reich, the dumb oxen would have switched sides (some did anyhow).
Eric,
I’m sure you know that Stalin wiped out 35,000 or more of his officer corps in the late thirties. He was deceived by phony intelligence fabricated by Richard Heydrich which framed numerous Soviet officers for treason of which they.were innocent. Stalin fell for it – his severe paranoia contributed to the purge. So they started the war minus their officer corps. Some of the finest generals who went on to win major battles and led historical campaigns were in gulags when war broke out. Rokossovsky, for one.
Yes they had no alternative but they also had punishment brigades of Soviet troops who shot soldiers who tried to retreat. Nonetheless they were damn awesome imo.
F&L,
Yes, that’s what I said. They had no alternative.
And what kind of idiot kills most all of his own mid-level through top brass because an enemy SS guy plants the idea that they’re traitors? That’s hardly 4D chess playing. More like 2D chess players losing to 3D enemy chess playing, which is exactly what is happening to Russia today. Nothing has changed, except for the Russian people are no longer hordes of abused dumb oxen with a gun to the back of their collective head who will resign themselves to dying by the millions.
Some drunk retired old goats see 70 US mercs lying dead, in Yemen, via the mystical lens that is the bottom of their 4th tumbler of Scotch, and some imagine their countrymen are all magnificent 4D chess players after their 4th tumbler of Vodka. I find them all to be tiresome, but the internet is so big that there will always be a sizeable enough collection of fools who believe the yarns they spin.
Eric,
The same kind of idiot who shit-canned Mendelian genetics and promoted Lysenko’s pseudoscience, and outlawed study of relatively and quantum theory (until it was explained to him that they needed it for atomic weapons) because they violated the “dialectical materialism” of Marxist dogma?
This TV series is tedious and quite tacky in places due mostly to their budget constraints but it does have good actors and achieves a remarkable degree of identification with some of the characters. And fascinating recreations of WW2 era California and Los Alamos.
But most impressive is the exposure of the sadism of the NKVD. I read most of the classic gulag imprisonment accounts of Shalamov, Solzhenitsyn and Yevgenia Ginzburg but nothing in them compares with the dramatization in the final episodes here of what was done to a particular beautiful, brilliant Russian emigre woman who aided the spy protagonist. My jaw was on the floor. Very clever way to do it — by making the viewers fall in love with her first. It’s probably fictional but it is a story typical of that time and place. I’m not saying you should watch it because I don’t go in for that and as I said it isn’t western quality in production value, I’m just saying you can get a sense of the value those henchmen of Stalin assigned to human life — zero, if that.
Eric, your imaginative writing impresses me. You have ability.
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The Bomb – Russian TV Series Episode 1
https://youtu.be/U7Bm1xg5q4I
War changes lives of men so dramatically… From the student of the Physics and Mechanics Department in love with his classmate Lika, Ivan Gouchkov first turns into an intelligence agent and then into a missing US marine cadet Stanley Lieber. Recruited by the Soviet intelligence, Ivan is to perform a special mission: to gain classified information about the atomic bomb being developed in the USA. He must change his appearance, biography, religion… and go through all pits in hell before seeing again the ones who was so dear to him…
Lars,
Years ago I read every book I could lay hands on that purported to be a bio of Putin, including a couple of studies commissioned by the US government.
I remember vividly an evaluation of him written up by his supervisor (s) in the Soviet KGB, because after praising him mildly for various attributes it closed with one huge caveat — that he had a seriously underdeveloped sense of danger.
They knew their man.
A street interview with a Russian woman. 7 minutes and definitely worth every second. She’s been arrested several times but defended herself, won her case, and received compensation from the police, and used the funds to purchase a Labrador who now accompanies her on long walks. She says the Pytin regime is actually more of a problem for Russians than for the EU, USA etc. Brave person.
Putin in North Korea: Dangerous Alliance?
https://youtu.be/Zv4FeKrxiUU
So does every western leader. Nobody in the west can accept that one can no longer do whatever under the umbrella of the US.
There are now real limits with real consequences for believing otherwise. The trailblazing era of couping and creating puppet states is coming to an abrupt end which is China and Russia.
Like the classic game Risk, they formed a temporary alliance to weaken a common foe. It is time for NATO and the west to simmer down. The push is officially over. Get back to Nationalism and defending your own stuff.
Babelthuap,
Simmer down so Russia and China can proceed to effect coups and puppet states all over the world to their advantage.
There is no peace on earth; never has been and never will be. The fight is continuous and eternal. That is not the fault of the US. Do onto others before they do onto you is the best philosophy when it comes to global affairs. That said, wisdom is needed to know when to push and how to push and how much and when to lay back, how much and how to do that as well.
It appears that Ukraine is channeling both Sun Tzu and Mohammad Ali. It also appears that when the Russian army has to move, it does not do so easily, as was evident already on the first few days of their invasion. The effort by Putin to down play this war is holding up less and less and keeping his population ignorant and docile is getting harder. Just as it is getting harder to hide the huge cost of this war, both in personnel and equipment. Add to this now thousands of refugees inside Russia that will also impact the situation. From what I read, it seems Ukraine is expanding it’s footprint inside Russia. I have no idea how this plays out, but I expect it to have significance.
Russian residents of Sudzha are now getting food an first aid from Ukrainian troops. Those residents have been hiding in cellars from Russian bombs for the last week. The same is going on in other areas. Unlike in Ukraine where Russian invaders flattened cities, kidnapped and tortured Ukrainian civilians and sent them to concentration camps.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1823647895305822328
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65504 Two things not to mess with:
Ukrainian tractors and babushkas.
Kilo 4/11,
In addition to cries of “путин – сукин сын,” I read advancing Ukrainian troops also hear unsolicited cries of “Слава Україні.” A lot of the inhabitants of this part of Kursk are Ukrainian.
Southern Kursk Oblast used to be part of Ukraine. As did much of Belgorod Oblast and Krasnodar Krai.
Tanks are mobile castles. Drones are mobile cannon. Just as cannon signaled the end of the age of castles, drones signal the end of the age of tanks. In future someone will develop a counter to infantry/drone dominance in conventional warfare and we’ll be back in whatever castle/armor looks like then. My guess is cheap high powered directed energy weapons will eventually make infantry untenable. But it’s just a guess. Known unknowns being what they are.