“The Kakhovka Operational Group have published a video in which it is said that the Ukrainian army broke through the first line of Russian defence in Kherson Oblast.
Source: Kakhovka Operational Group; Ukrainska Pravda sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces; Dom TV channel
Quote: “The 109th regiment of the so-called ‘DPR’ (Donetsk People’s Republic) has withdrawn from its positions in Kherson Oblast, and the Russian elite Airborne, who supported them, fled the battlefield.”
Details:
The operational group also published a video in which a Russian soldier complains that the Ukrainian Forces have broken through the first line of defence in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainska Pravda’s sources have confirmed a breakthrough by the Ukrainian forces.
Another source in the southern group of the Armed Forces noted that there had been a breakthrough in some areas of the first line of Russian defence, but “it’s too early to say anything in particular yet because it’s a large front.”
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched offensive actions on many fronts in Ukraine’s South,” reports Nataliya Humenyuk, the head of the Joint Press Centre of the Security and Defence Forces Pivden (South).”
Comment: OK. Now we will see if the Russian trolls have been correct. pl
Ukraine launches counter-offensive to retake Kherson from Russia (telegraph.co.uk)
This may be the real thing or it could be the Ukrainians taking tactical advantage of of a DNR unit’s collapse. This seems to have been preceded by a few days of increased bombardment of Russian positions from the front lines to the deep rear. The main assault is from the Davydiv Brid bridgehead over the Inhulets River and aiming for Nova Kakhovka. If successful, this would split the Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro and totally cut off half those forces from any ground resupply. Supporting attacks are taking place at several other places across the Kherson front.
Russian sources reported the fall of Sukhoy Stavok this morning. That’s the area the Russians have been using to gather forces to reduce the bridgehead at Davydiv Brid. Sukhoy Stavok is around 6 miles beyond that bridgehead. It’s still 35 miles further to the banks of the Dnipro.
BBC News:
Putin has reportedly “sidelined” Sergei Shoigu, his longtime ally and defense minister, over Russian forces’ dismal progress. The BBC cites independent Russian media and Britain’s defense minister alleging that soldiers have been ridiculing Shoigu for his “ineffectual” leadership. “Recent independent Russian media reports have claimed that due to the problems Russia is facing in its war against Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is now being sidelined within the Russian leadership, with operational commanders briefing President Putin directly on the course of the war,” the British ministry of defense said in a statement. “Russian officers and soldiers with firsthand experience of the war probably routinely ridicule Shoigu for his ineffectual and out-of-touch leadership as Russian progress has stalled.” Shoigu had scant military experience before Putin put him in charge of the ministry of defense.
Hitler redux?
The “Plywood Marshall” of Strelkov’s unforgettable sarcastic appellation. I think he took it from the Potemkin Village concept, plywood being a cheap superficial patchwork material. Shoigu may be blamed unfairly, I don’t know. Other tantalizingly plausible sources say Shoigu was against doing the SMO when first asked by his Nibs. Strelkov (nor anyone else in their right mind) can’t criticize his Nibs directly. Shoigu may be the highest ranking available punching bag, again IDKnow. Since Shoigu is not the CiChf but rather the facilitator, criticizing him is a way of saying you don’t object to the overall idea, rather it’s imperfect implementation.
TTG, Can you comment further on what CNN reported today?
“… US and European officials say Ukraine has successfully used a method of resistance warfare developed by US special operations forces to fight back against Russia and bog down its vastly superior military. The Resistance Operating Concept was developed in 2013 following Russia’s war with Georgia a few years earlier but its value was only realized after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. It provides a blueprint for smaller nations to effectively resist and confront a larger neighbor that has invaded…”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/politics/ukraine-shaping-counteroffensive/index.html
Al,
I’ve written about this subject before. The readings I listed below should provide you a good idea of the lineage of the resistance operating concept. This concept is just a repackaging of SF’s primary mission of UW (unconventional warfare). The East European region is no stranger to this concept. See my post from many years ago.
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2011/04/lithuanian-resistance-to-soviet-occupation-1944-1952.html
The resistance operating concept is just the latest application of UW as applied to Ukraine by a series of SF MTTs (mobile training teams). It’s the newest edition of what Colonel Aaron Bank brought into fruition with the creation of SF and the 10th Special Forces Group which he commanded.
https://turcopolier.com/on-the-fundamentals-of-national-resistance-ttg/
https://turcopolier.com/the-us-armys-green-berets-quietly-helped-tilt-the-battlefield-a-little-bit-more-toward-ukraine-ttg/
Col. Lang- It would be helpful if you were to host a panel discussion or debate between TTG and other military practitioners posting here vs. those who are reporting and predicting Russian SMO success- e.g., persons such as Scott Ritter, Douglas MacGregor, Larry Johnson and Andrey Martyanov.
It would be hugely informative, and something your readers and the public generally need to hear and read if they are to understand the military and political context, strategy and tactics of this conflict.
Probably a good idea to launch a major offensive after over 10M citizens flee, over 100K dead and over a trillion in damages.
Yes. When your government is a movie production company (Ukraine).
Launching a major offensive is certainly desirable. That does not make it a “good idea”. “Good ideas” require mapping of means to ends. Ideas only qualify as “good” when the means can be implemented. That is Ukraine’s judgement to make, not ours.
I’m trying to figure out the meaning of the “now we will if the Russian trolls have been correct”. Maybe missing the word “see”?
If so I think I think we will see they have been correct, or maybe more accurately stated as mostly correct.
klapper
yes see is missing.
Note that this Ukrainian offensive in Kherson corresponds with the arrival of the Russian 3rd Army Corp in Rostov, from where it is going to be deployed to Donbass.
So I suspect very much that this Ukrainian offensive was launched with the aim of spooking the Russian General Staff into deploying that 3rd Army Corp to the Kherson region.
As in: it isn’t intended to capture Kherson City or to throw the Russian Army back over the river.
Its aim is much more limited than that: basically, to buy a month or more for Ukrainian forces in Donbass.
Still, as you say: time will tell.
Why is a regiment of the so-called DPR in Kherson. They should be back in Donetsk Oblast trying to put the Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut and Soledar in a cauldron. Maybe there is some truth that Putin has been press-ganging Donetsk & Luhansk citizens (up to 60 years old) and using them for cannon-fodder. Makes sense to send them to Kherson Oblast where they don’t know the territory and cannot easily desert and find a hidey hole near home.
The penetration of Russian defenses at Davydiv Brid is great news and seems to be confirmed by multiple RU sources. Let’s hope that the Ukrainian Army can exploit the gap. To do that they would have to get reinforcements and lots of armor pouring over the Inhulets River.
But the tough nut is still way ahead to take back the rest of Kherson Oblast on the east bank of the Dnieper. That will be a lot harder. I was hoping that the long awaited Kherson offensive was a feint, and that they would instead strike in force at Tokmak to Melitopol or Berdians’k. That might have split and trapped RU forces in southern Zaporhizhzhia Oblast and eastern Kherson Province if the Ukrainians could cut the bridges and rail links to Crimea.