Dementia Joe and his coterie of enablers have embarked on a foreign policy that is likely to result in a new war that will endanger America and further a growing perception that the United States is weak and divided. There are three troublesome flashpoints (Ukraine, China and Iran) that could explode at any time and catapult our nation into a costly, deadly military confrontation. Topping the list is the Ukraine.
The corrupt dealings in Ukraine over the last four years by Joe and Hunter Biden leaves them completely compromised and subject to coercion, even blackmail. With this as a backdrop the decade long effort by the United States to weaken Russia’s influence in eastern Ukraine has been revived with Biden’s arrival in the White House.
Let me first introduce you to some essential facts:
LJ
Try to remember to turn the page counter on.
Larry Johnson,
If the Ukraine blows so will Syria! Then the situation might transition from nemesis to tisis in short order. Here is a strangely appropriate analysis with just one word blanked out.
In the years ahead, _____________ will assuredly find itself in new international crises involving nations or groups that have powerful leaders. In some cases, these leaders may have a special, dangerous mindset that is the result of a “hubris-nemesis complex.” This complex involves a combination of hubris (a pretension toward an arrogant form of godliness) and nemesis (a vengeful desire to confront, defeat, humiliate, and punish an adversary, especially one that can be accused of hubris). The combination has strange dynamics that may lead to destructive, high-risk behavior. Attempts to deter, compel, or negotiate with a leader who has a hubris-nemesis complex can be ineffectual or even disastrously counterproductive when those attempts are based on concepts better suited to dealing with more normal leaders.
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR461.pdf
We, too, pray for sanity.
Ishmael Zechariah
Larry, I unfortunately agree with your observations and conclusion.
I would add that in my opinion, the Russians are a lot more determined, as are the Chinese and Iranians, then the generally self absorbed younger generations in the West. “Woke” culture has no answer to sunken warships, downed aircraft and body bags. Do the SJWs want to die for LBGTIQ rights in Russia or another of their pet obsessions de jour? I don’t think so.
My concern for President Biden and America is that, if Ukraine attacks, unless President Putin succeeds in delivering a very short, sharp and successful lesson to Ukraine there is not going to be a clear path forward to a negotiated armistice. If that doesn’t happen through bad luck, the fog of war, etc. Then I don’t think Biden has the intelligence to get us out of the mess.
If you add to that the possibility that Zelensky may demand American support “or else” when he starts to lose then we are in very very dangerous territory. If I were the Chinese, I would just stand back and watch. Taiwanese independence is a meaningless concept without American military backing and I’m sure the Taiwanese know it.
The wild card to me is what is Israel’s attitude? Is it possible that they might be a moderating influence for a change?
Oh, yeah….!!!!!! The country that shoots women and children who get too close to the fence they have constructed in PALESTINE on other people”s land will be the moderating party. Or maybe Mad Dog Bolton.
Try getting real, and come up with real world situations. Not some fantasy of killers acting like kittens. The Russians seem more balanced in responding to such provocations than the U.S. & it’s gang of follower- puppets. How long would any of the these follower-puppets be able to go toe to toe with Russia in all-out-war situation. I’d bet less than 24 hours, probably far less. Or as a Chinese General once asked: would you want to give up Los Angeles to save Tiwan? The U.S. doesn’t seem to have any sort of reliable anti-missile defence system. Would Ole Uncle Joe really like to get into such pissing contest so early on in his term of presidency? Maybe I am wrong, but from what I have seen so far, he just seems to be throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. In this game, if one blunders, the walls vanish, an the lights go out.
Russia moves cannon boats and amphibious vessels from Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, but in reality these combatants are perfect for operations in shallow waters and that means Azov Sea and Ukraine’s South-Western flank. These ships can form both a surface group capable of dispatching anything Ukraine may have on Azov Sea, plus form excellent tactical amphibious group which can land a battalion or two of marines and support them with fire from the sea, both artillery and MLRS. Of course, there are other forces Russia has there but it is a good way to give Caspian Flotilla a chance for yet another combat deployment, after its missile ships spearheaded first salvos of 3M14 cruise missiles at ISIS targets in Syria in 2015. Here are some of those ships:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Caspian_Corvette_Astrakhan_2.jpg
Russia has an overwhelming firepower in the Black Sea proper and whatever the US is sending there is primarily for ISR purposes in case Ukies go bananas and decide to attack Donbass in death by cop scenario. The US will not interfere in any meaningful way other than supplying Ukies with recon data.
As in Syria NATO and Russian forces cannot fire on each other. But could the NATO naval forces you mention fire at any Donbas forces seeking to take territory?
If so, just as well Strelkov isn’t mixed up in it any more. He’d want to do just that and “the Russians are coming” narrative would be further confirmed. Conscription in Donbas/Luhansk indicates they are gearing up intensively. Presumably if it kicked off the Russians would be able to hold the Donbas forces back?
As this builds up one is reminded of Mozgovoy’s remark. If both sides knew who the true enemy was the fighting would stop tomorrow.
.
Should add – seems not from the Black Sea this time round –
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-cancels-warships-deployment-black-sea-turkish-diplomatic-sources-2021-04-14/
It is bigger than Biden or even the Military Industrial Complex. The establishment foreign policy apparatus transcends political parties and has a continuity that survives changes in administrations. It is obsessed with Russia. It opposed not just communism but Russia itself so when the Berlin wall fell for it the Cold War never ended and it successfully pursued the the break up and looting of the Russian Empire and the relentless eastward march of NATO. Putin pushed back on this resulting in him being demonized by the orchestrated Western media. Trump for all his faults had at least a halfway rational view of these matters but now the Borg is back and spoiling for a fight. I never cease to be amazed by the stupidity of these people, their apparent lack of understanding of the importance of Ukraine and Sevastopol in Russian history and their inability to read a map or know the basics of military operations to see the obvious indefensibility of Ukraine’s eastern border. The danger now is that Ukraine’s leaders will overestimate the support they think they have from the United States and start something they can’t stop. This has the feel of 1914.
Or the Georgian/Russian of 2008 when Georgia attacked on Russian territory. President Bush was talking tough, saying he would send aid to Georgia on warships. But the rules governing ships entering the Bosferus proscribed such stuff, aND Bush ended doing nothing. The Russians quickly neutralized the Georgian forces and pushed deeper into Georgia where they currently remain. The odiot who started the mess was forced out of Georgia & was afterwards appointed a governor or some such in Ukraine. But I think that too went bad. Such is the level of governance in Ukraine.
The last 5 Ukros killed were killed by mines. The contact line has many zones where minefields are employed by both sides. It appears some were killed in their own minefield according to local reports. Civilians in the LPR and DPR have been killed by incoming fire, most recently a 5 year old boy. Of course OSCE is worthless except as a “bean counter”; who fired what and where is too much to record..
Another good analysis there LJ.
US defence attache with a group was up at the front yesterday as well as the comic.
Ukraine really has its back up against the wall financially. This year with big interest payments due and no way to get the funds as the IMF seems to hit its limit on their ‘we’re never getting it back’ budget. Their only steady source of funds is ironically Russia with the gas transit fees guaranteed at $7B total over the next four years, much of which will go to the EU and IMF as interest payments. After that the gas fees will drop to zero as the gas transits move to TurkStream and NS2. With nothing to pay Russia, apart from the little mentioned oil transit fees, Russia may stop shipping gas/coal/electricity for local consumption as well. At that point either Ukraine crashes or someone else has to pick up the bill.
Although Kiev will lose dramatically there are very good reasons why Kiev would push the button. Will they ever again have this PR opportunity to play the innocent victim?
Earlier this morning I saw a pic of Zelenskiy visiting the front, behind him was a makeshift field tent with a sign on it, the sign is in Ukrainian but translates as “Vietnam”. Is Biden serious about backing Zelenskiy, I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
wondering if anyone can point me to a fairly, anyway, reliable, (assuming one exists) ‘war games scenario’ document on an attempted invasion of Taiwan by China. Intuitively, it would seem a difficult challenge, especially given China’s lack of any appreciable experience in seaborne invasion. Thanks in advance for any help anyone can provide, and my apologies upfront LJ if you deem this offtopic.
Not meaning to be a smart-alec about it, but why assume that an invasion has to be “seaborne”?
In WW2 the Royal Navy had total control of the waters around Crete. So the Germans simply went over the top of them and invaded the island from the air.
It was very definitely touch and go for a while until German paratroopers managed to capture an airfield, and from that point it was all over.
No idea how well defended Taiwanese airfields are, but the PLA would only need to capture one and, again, the final result will not be in doubt.
well, the quick answer to your question would be ‘fine, alter my initial question to include war games scenarios on airborne attacks on Taiwan. The glib answer might be, Taiwan is not Crete. And the Chinese PLA are not the Wehrmacht. Who, by the time of the Crete attack had built up a record that included many successful airborne attacks. I see no such history with the PLA. That, by no means rules it out. But, in any event, I can’t imagine the PLA would role the dice, SOLELY, on an airborne attack. They would have to have a seaborne plan of attack, in case Plan A failed. So, in any event, I would be still be in search of that war games scenario.
Absent any new evidence, I am going to continue to assume that this is really about Nordstream II. The Biden Junta are probably planning on having their Ukrainian cat’s paw make a lunge at DNR/LNR, forcing the Russians to intervene directly. Ukraine, of course, is not actually a full NATO member, so no Article 5 will be triggered. Instead, Washington just self-righteously hollers ‘Russian aggression!’ and demands that Merkel immediately shut down Nordstream II — the Russian pipeline into Germany — just before it’s ready to go online.
And then, as a lush reward for their undying loyalty, the Germans get to import frack-gas and oil all the way from the US at four or five times the market rate. Problem solved!
you are correct – the Ukraine state does not really want the return of the Donbass region let alone Crimea as it would result in a complete change in the balance of power in the Ukraine with the Russian-speaking population being able to form the government, as it had done pre 2014. They really want to push the Germans into stopping Nord Stream 2 by provoking Russia
Struggling to understand how a Ukraine with such supposedly strong ties to National Socialists of a century ago managed to end up with a Jewish comedian as President.
study history without using g00gle and most U.S sources Some Dude🤷♂️
All the info is available @ the interwebz.
They both hate Russia
Larry, Colonel,
Here’s a backgrounder from the Ukraine military veterans of the Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade’s point of view. This was the period of 2014-2015.
93: the Battle for Ukraine – first days of the war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cMBPN3rjXU
93: the Battle for Ukraine – around Donetsk Airport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AtszHyy8rY
Here’s the viewpoint of Ukraine Army’s snipers who are primarily composed of volunteer housewives. While to D.C. and Moscow, it’s part of their sphere of political chess, however to those on the front lines, it is survival and protection of their loved ones.
The Female Fighters of Ukraine’s Forgotten War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGVc4HPhanc
Almost half a century ago, I took a course in the German language as a refresher during the summer session at my local junior college. The woman who taught the course was a native Ukrainian. She told the class a little about her background.
When the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union, she was in her mid- to late-teens. She had an intense dislike (hatred) of the Russians and took a job working for the German military government of occupation as an interpreter. She said they had welcomed the Germans as liberators from the oppression of the Soviet Communists.
Later, when the Red Army juggernaut was rolling west through Ukraine, she realized that it would not be good for her long-term prospects to remain at home. She chose to move west with the retreating German army. Subsequent to the end of the war in Europe, she rattled around for awhile in displaced person camps, and ultimately made her way to the United States.
I have no reason to doubt the veracity of her story. This was my first introduction to the enmity between the Russians and the Ukrainians.
Galicians.
Biden is a tin-hat emperor moving tin soldiers in his bathtub at play time. Surrounded by self-selected idiots who make him dangerous as hell. This is what his “return to decency” looks like? May he be struck down deaf and dumb.
Two front war – Russia moving into Ukraine at the same time China moves on Taiwan. They put their wet fingers up to the wind to see which way the Biden operation blows.
And they could not escape the conclusion this was the time to strike if there is any fortuitous time to strike. Biden and his new team muddle deeply into reckless ineptitude. And Kamala Harris doesn’t have anything to wear.
An odd thesis. The Russians are signally very, very strongly that they do not want the Ukraine to start a war by attacking the rebels in Donbass.
They could not be more explicit if they sent a hypersonic cruise missile through Zelensky’s office window with a sign on it that reads “Don’t start something you won’t even live to regret”.
They very clearly do not think that this is “the time to strike”, nor even that they think there is a “fortuitous time” for them to go to war with Ukraine.
If Ukraine strikes first then, sure, they’ll strike back. But I fail to see how anyone can come to the conclusion that the Russians are provoking this when it is very clearly the Ukies and their promoters in the White House who are pushing these buttons.
Similarly with Taiwan.
The Chinese are not provoking this. They made their red lines clear to everyone as far back as Nixon’s trip to China i.e. if the USA sticks to a one-China-policy then the mainland will refrain from using force against Taiwan.
But the USA is not sticking to the one-China-policy. Recent US diplomatic moves look exactly like what it is: maneuverings to prepare for when the Taipei government declares independence.
Which is crazy.
But in both cases the USA may well provoke a conflict and then dump their patsies like a discarded toy.
Which would be beyond crazy. It would be an outcome so loopy that there isn’t even a word to describe it.
Thank you for setting it straight.. it seems pretty evident Russia does not want a war but is sure as hell ready to finish this business if a war is pushed on to them… and pushed on to them by the Americans. Ukraine has been armed by the U.S , funded by the IMF, and cheered by NATO. They will not do a single thing without their owners permission.
Hunter’s dad and his administration is making Trump look like the greatest statesman that ever lived.
Back in December 2020 Putin had an expanded meeting with his Defense Ministry Board. In it he laid out several items and agendas to be carried out by the Military Staff.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64684
The recent reinforcements by the Russian MOD to counter NATO along the Ukraine border region, it appears that the MOD has deployed the incorporation of their (RChBD) capabilities into their Military Field Hospitals. And it appears that Putin has authorized deployment of their Iskander near the Ukraine border. The Iskander is multi-faceted, EMP, fuel air explosive, as well as thermonuclear. Back in 2015 Putin authorized nuclear employment should they be needed.
https://coffeeordie.com/russian-field-camps/
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russian-ground-troop-units-and-iskander-ballistic-missiles-identified-at-ukrainian-border-by-janes
https://eng.mil.ru/en/structure/forces/ground/structure/rhbz.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander
March 24th saw Ukraine’s Zelensky virtually declaring war against the Russian Federation. One can not rule out Zelensky using the trade deals with Doha and use the direct flights between Kiev and Doha to smuggle in Jihad’s from Syria and Libya to fight in Donbas. Zelensky on March 3rd in a joint press conference with the European Council President in Kiev stated that the retaking of Crimea from Russia was now Ukraine Official Policy.
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/ukraine-redux-war-russophobia-and-pipelineistan/
Colonel,
Speaking of ‘foreign policy’, question is who will win out — D.C. or Tel Aviv?
‘The model’ is headed to D.C. to try and convince our IC’s head-cheeses that the Iran JCPOA isn’t such a good deal, and Tel Aviv is trying to get him an audience with his high-arsed the ‘King’, China Joe. If D.C. swallows ‘the model’s’ spiel, then they’re bigger suckers than they already appear to be.
Mossad chief said heading to Washington in bid to block US return to Iran deal
https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-chief-said-heading-to-washington-in-bid-to-block-us-return-to-iran-deal/
Assume this Mossad meeting will take place between Kackling Kamala who will be channeling Obama-Jarrett; or will it be Stinking Liar Susan Rose channeling Obama-Jarrett? But the Big Guy will be out to lunch.
Mr Johnson – this was posted today by a commenter on Dr North’s blog.
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2376246-audio-tapes-of-thousands-of-overheard-conversations-a-reconstruction-of-the-mh17-disaster.html
Also, if it is still relevant today, a contemporary assessment of the shooting down of MH17 –
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85089
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