“China prioritizing Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project”

SINGAPORE/ASHGABAT, May 24 (Reuters) – China is accelerating the building of a long-delayed Central Asian pipeline to source gas from Turkmenistan even as Russia pushes its own new Siberian connection, as Beijing juggles its energy security needs with diplomatic priorities. Beijing is keen to bolster Central Asia ties under its Belt & Road Initiative, but nearly a decade after construction began, the “Line D” project has been hobbled by complex price talks and the technical hurdles of laying a pipeline crossing another three central Asian nations, Chinese state oil officials said.

But Moscow’s recent push to land its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, the Power of Siberia 2, to make up for shrunken sales in Europe due to the Ukraine crisis, provides Beijing a lever to advance the central Asian project, according to Chinese oil officials and industry consultants. “Central Asian pipelines are considered a cornerstone investment in China’s energy and geopolitical space. It’s a supply channel with strategic value that supersedes commercial concerns,” a state-oil official familiar with China National Petroleum Corp’s (CNPC) global strategy told Reuters.

China may eventually seal both deals to feed its massive long-term gas needs, but is prioritizing Turkmenistan, industry officials said, as Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a frontier to expand trade, secure energy and maintain stability in its once-restive western Xinjiang region.

Combined, multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars to bring gas via both pipelines would meet 20% of China’s current demand. The pipelines are key to Beijing’s goal of using gas as a bridge fuel towards its carbon neutrality targets and also helping to shield it from the volatile tanker-carried liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. Estimated in 2014 to cost $6.7 billion, Line D would carry 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year.

Speaking last week at the first in-person summit of central Asian leaders in the ancient Silk Road city of Xian, President Xi Jinping urged parties to accelerate laying Line D, which would be China’s fourth gas pipeline to the region, almost a decade after the start of construction in Tajikistan. In 2022, China imported 35 bcm gas or worth $10.3 billion via three pipelines from Turkmenistan, compared with 16 bcm via a single pipeline from Russia at about $4 billion.


Comment: This is a switch, a title that is not misleading. I’ve seen several  articles that gives the impression that China is abandoning Russia. No, China is not abandoning Russia, but this “friendship without limits” apparently has limits. China is doing what’s best for China. And it appears to be at a considerable price in the short term. This will also come at a considerable price to Russia. She can ill afford to complete The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline on her own. All this in pursuit of expanding and solidifying Chinese influence in Central Asia.

Although it’s just a hunch on my part, I think China will move on old Chinese territories she lost to Russia before she seriously attempts to reincorporate Taiwan into the Empire. As the saying goes, “In the midst of every crisis lies great opportunity.” She might even see it as a necessary stepping stone in her quest to take our place as a leading power.   


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49 Responses to “China prioritizing Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project”

  1. wiz says:


    recently China and Russia decided to deepen their nuclear cooperation as part of which Russia will help China with its nuclear program. Pentagon believes it might enable China to make many more nukes, fast.


    Why would Russia do this if it thinks China plans to stab it in the back ? Russia can’t be that desperate.

  2. Fourth and Long says:

    Does anyone know how to use search to find an image of a map on which the USA doesn’t appear, say, from a few centuries ago? It possibly will make (5 letters beginning with P) rest easier. And easier. (I’m joking).
    Offending passage pasted below link.
    Barely Noting War in Public, Putin Acts Like Time Is on His Side:
    On Tuesday, the Kremlin released footage of Mr. Putin meeting with Valery Zorkin, the chairman of Russia’s Constitutional Court, who brought with him a copy of a 17th-century French map of Europe.
    “There’s no Ukraine” on the map, Mr. Zorkin tells Mr. Putin.
    Mr. Putin then falsely asserts that before the Soviet Union was formed, “there was never any Ukraine in the history of humanity.”

    • TTG says:


      Zorkin and Putin need glasses. That 400 year old French map clearly spelled out “Ukraine, Land of the Cossacks” (in french of course) in a large area centered around Kyiv.

    • Billy Roche says:

      If we look far enough in the past we’ll find a map w/o Russia. We can also find Russia, as a completely European kingdom, with its capital in Kiev. We can find Russia pre Peter w/o Asian real estate. Old maps tell us what was, current ones tell what is. What then is Russia? Don’t forget this question. To TTG’s article re power and trade throughout Central Asia. We s/n be surprised. China once was the most powerful nation in the world. But she suffered from self imposed isolation. The world’s leading power circa 1650, she fell back and by 1850 began 100 years of humiliation. Seventy years of communist totalitarians have rtn’d Chung Kou to the doorway of 1650. She again casts covetous eyes on Central Asia. She does so as Russia reveals her inability to subdue 40MM Ukrainians who have little economic power and only the military force supplied by western largess. Russia and China are both nuclear powers but China knows conventionally Russia’s a paper tiger. Russia humiliated China before Britain; pay back’s due. China will encroach w/trade on Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. If the Russian is kicked out of Asia will he be so casual about his western neighbors? Will Russians ask “who are we anyway”? Good thing I like Chinese food.

      • Peter Williams says:

        The Russians defeated the Siberian Khanate in the 1580/90s which is long before Pyotr I. The descendants of the Khanate are the Siberian Tatars, who are loyal Russians, and who opposed the CIA supported Idel Ural. Your knowledge of Russian history is woefully inadequate.

        • TTG says:

          Peter Williams,

          The whole idea of the Idel Ural predates the CIA by several decades. Maybe Moscow ought to let the Crimean Tatars return to Crimea.

          • Peter Williams says:

            Crimean Tatars are quite different from Siberian Tatars, though surprisingly, Siberian Tatars understand Crimean Tatars, better than Volga Tatars. My wife’s cousins are Siberian Tatars, and I know many mixed families.

            It was Moscow that in 2014, made Crimean Tatar a State language of the Crimea, started sorting out land ownership, allowed the building of new mosques, and the repair of historical Tatar palaces. All things that never happened under the Ukraine.

            TTG, your pathological hatred of Russia does not allow you to see the truth.

            Most families where my daughters live in Sverdlovskaya are mixed. Personally, I think that Kazan is the most beautiful city in Russia after Piter. Muslims and Pravoslavie peacefully coexist and respect each other. The CIA tried to resurrect Idel Ural and failed miserably.

            One Friday, many years ago, I saw an old baba taking her shopping trolley past a mosque in Kazan, a wheel fell off, and several young men were assigned to take her shopping to her apartment and return with the trolley to be repaired. Rather than repair the trolley, they rebuilt it. Why? She was pravoslavie and a child of the book. Col. Lang would have understood this, unfortunately, you never will.

          • TTG says:

            Peter Williams,

            Moscow’s repression of the Crimean Tatars began again after the 2014 annexation. Before that, tension between the Crimean Tatars and the Russians in Crimea was always high. Kyiv, even in the early days of independence gave the Crimean Tatars a wide degree of autonomy much to the chagrin of the Russian inhabitants who resented and resisted the return of the Tatars started near the end of the Soviet Union.

            I’m familiar with the varied Tatar populations. Perhaps you’ve read my article on the Lipka Tatars done many years ago.


            And my hatred of Russia, or more accurately the Soviet and the current regime in Moscow, may be pathological. But it doesn’t extend to the Russian people and the Russian culture. My reasons for hating Stalin, Beria, Blokhin and the rest of his NKVD, MGB, KGB henchmen should be self-evident. But Putin’s regime didn’t earn my wrath until quite recently. I understood why he invaded and annexed Crimea from a geopolitical sense and even understood his encouragement and support for the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR. I still admire how Russia supported Syria against the jihadis. It remains a model of restrained intervention in my view. But in the last year and a half, I feel he’s gone off the deep end. He has a pathological denial of Ukraine’s very existence and has chosen to act on that pathology. This war also exposed the rot and corruption that existed under Putin’s regime. The Russian people don’t deserve that.

        • Billy Roche says:

          So those Tartars, defeated over 400 years ago, are still unshakably loyal to their Russian conquerors. I suggest they are not motivated by love but economics. Alone they have a small economy, but the Russian economy multiplies theirs. I’m going out on a limb here but I’ll bet the Chinese will make offers too. But you say the faithful Siberian Tatar will reject them for love of Slavs. I could say that your understanding of human nature is woefully inadequate but I’m too old to learn which of us is right. Accept it or not, China is contesting Russia’s east while the “little Russias” to the west have had enough of her also.

          • wiz says:


            Tatars as well as many other most numerous Russian ethnic groups, have their own
            geo-political entity as part of the Federation, with its name, president, representative body, capital, anthem, religious rights, official language in addition to Russian etc.
            Had Ukraine, acknowledging its internal differences, implemented a similar model as Russia and refrained from seeking NATO membership, this whole tragedy could have been avoided.
            In Russia, Tatars and others are free to live their lives in accordance with their culture and traditions. In China, the Tatars would probably get the Uyghur treatment.

          • TTG says:


            For many of the indigenous peoples in the Russian north, life under Czarist and Communist rule was better than what the indigenous people in North America endured. Some of that was due to benign neglect. Some was due to seeing the communal nature of those peoples as compatible with the “new soviet man.” Others, like the Crimean Tatars, endured the equivalent of the Trail of Tears.

          • Billy Roche says:

            wiz: it appears you are quoting directly from Russia’s (be it communist or imperial) play book. The one thing that acceptance into the Russian “Federation” would not give Ukraine is independence. America c/h accepted similar arrangements with Great Britain in early 1775 (b/f Lex n Concord) but there was that thing called freedom. Balts, Poles, Slovaks, Georgians, c/h accepted Federation membership as well. Acceptance of Federation membership leaves a nation under Russia’s thumb. My point is that the former SSR were never republics and everyone knew that. Their status was compelled by Russian force or economics. The latter two are no longer as strong. Expect more disturbance in the C.A. republics. As to Ukraine “this whole tragedy c/h been avoided” if Russia had not invaded Ukraine. There is the proof of the pudding. Russia c/n accept independent Ukraine. Here is the bitter truth. The war in Ukraine is not about equal membership in a “Russian” Federation (why not call it a Kazakstan Federation?). It is about restoration of the Russian Empire. As to your comment about the Uiger treatment I think you are right. Muslim C.A. states and China ought to think very hard about that.

          • leith says:

            TTG –

            There was no benign neglect of indigenous Siberian people by the Tsar’s Cossacks. There were mass slaughters in the far east. Russian colonizers used disease, alcohol, and massacre against the natives – the same as what was done here in both North & South America. The Soviets were supposedly less harsh. But they used mass resettlement instead. They moved indigenous northern Siberians off their traditional lands to more shabby quarters. Similar to what we did with reservations.

          • Fred says:


            It was probably better than under the Empire of the Summer Moon, too. Or any of the “indigenous ” tribes one might have been captured by.

          • wiz says:


            Many ethnic groups in the world (Kurds for example) would be very happy with the type of
            “benign neglect” that Tatars and other ethnic groups enjoy in Russia.
            Crimean Tatars have suffered under stalinist and communist policies but so too have the Russians.
            The years of the WW2, when the deportation of C. Tatars started, were especially challenging.
            Let’s not forget the treatment the US citizens of Japanese descent got during those years.

          • wiz says:


            I never suggested that Ukraine should become a part of the Russian federation. What I suggested is that it might benefit from reorganizing politically into a federation of sorts to better reflect its internal ethnic composition and historical, religious, political and cultural differences.

          • Billy Roche says:

            wiz: thanks for correcting my understanding. So a federation of Ukrainian nationalities would have prevented Russia from attacking Ukraine. Who knew. Maybe Russia s/organize as a federation. She has?? Am I to believe then that members of the Russian Federation are equal states? If that is so why d/n those silly Balts join the “Russian” Federation? You can dress up Russian Imperialism as communism or as a federation; well you know the lipstick on a pig line. Why are some so reluctant to call an empire an empire? Ukrainians know it when they see it. So do Balts, Finns, and Slavs. If western eyes don’t look maybe it will go away? Ostrich eyes here we come.

          • wiz says:


            you’re all over the place in this post of yours and I’m not sure what exactly you are trying to say.
            You seem to not understand what a federation is, which is strange since you live in the US.

            Again, I believe a federation of sorts might have avoided this whole mess. I also mentioned Ukrainian determination to become a NATO member at all costs. This, combined with NATO expansion, contributed greatly as well IMO.

            Here’s a Georgian prime minister voicing his opinion as to why Russia invaded.
            Now, he is not a Balt, or Slav or Finn so you might dismiss him out of hand but still, Georgia is not a friend of Russia and his opinion is worth noting.


          • Billy Roche says:

            Wiz; sorry if my post was not direct enough for you. I’ll try better. The text book definition of a federation is “power sharing” and the US Constitution calls for exactly that but it has not been the case since the War of Northern Aggression. The devil is always in the detail so what kind of federation (“of some sort”) did you have in mind and why would that have dissuaded Moscow from invading Ukraine. Why would a federation of Ukrainian regions have dissuaded Russia’s invasion. Come on, its b/c the Donbass could continue to behave as part of Russia. To be clear, Ukraine is not part of Russia. Ukrainians refuse to be coerced by Russia. Ukraine is not Russia’s business. A federation is not the issue. The issue is Russia’s refusal to accept Ukraine as a sovereign state. I hope that was clear. There is the question of NATO advancement. Consider that such c/n have happened if former SSR’s (members of the communist federation, remember) had not begged to become part of NATO. Sweden and Finland prove that point today. If Ukraine was willing to be subordinate to Russia there w/h been no invasion. I agree. Ukraine is not willing.

        • leith says:

          Peter W –

          Less than 200 years ago Alexander II stole the Amur & Khabarovsk regions from the Chinese. Including Vladivostok.

          The Siberian Khanate you mention was in the far west of Siberia. It was not that far from the Urals. Yermak, as I’m sure you know, never got to the Amur or anywhere near it.

  3. Fred says:


    “Combined, multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars to bring gas via both pipelines would meet 20% of China’s current demand. …”
    That’s been well known for years. The idea China is building pipelines to ‘solidify influence’ in Central Asia is about as accurate as claiming that Germany was building Norstream2 to influence the Russians.

    “China will move on old Chinese territories she lost to Russia …”
    The UK has been interfering in US elections to regain the control they lost over their colonies. That’s also the reason for all the financial interference by the City of London and the ECB.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Congratulations! Our computers have selected you for a free one time only glimpse, due to your promising observations and incisive incisions into blarney.
      We place our glossary at the conclusion of this rough translation:
      The USA is a collective project (condominium) of several world players (clans of the aristocracy) and the USA itself is a place where you could store and, most importantly, protect your common funds. And you had to feed well those who are close to your common funds, otherwise they will rob you.

      The obshchak in our time is not a cellar with gold, but a huge amount of various kinds of securities and various kinds of institutions that manipulate them. That is, in order to have a common fund, you need to have a huge number of personnel serving this sector of the economy (brokers, appraisers, analysts, lawyers, collectors, bankers, cashiers and hundreds and even thousands of other professions). Now all this mass of people can be written off with one click of a computer mouse.

      It may seem paradoxical, but it would seem that the most technologically advanced and advanced branch of the US economy can first of all be automated and can completely get rid of people. And not only to be left without people, but also removed from the Earth, as from a planet, and placed in near space on Elon Musk’s satellites or similar ones. Conditional PayPal with virtual exchanges in space, and this huge mass of eating and unreliable and dangerous two-legged animals is no longer needed.

      The world players had to feed very well all these (now useless) people from the financial sector. And they fed them by sucking resources from all over the world. It was a payment for loyalty, and for the herd not to requisition the common funds.

      We know how resources were sucked from all over the world. Due to the FRS and all its banks-currency offices around the world, such as the Central Bank of Russia. Or more simply – due to the global emission and constant inflation of all regional dependent currencies. But safe issuance can only be in growing economies, and it serves growing sectors, and now the world has stabilized, and the elite no longer have the ability to safely pump money into stagnating economies for the economies of the world.

      So, there are three trends –

      1. The world elite has less and less opportunity to feed the American herd for its loyalty and, as a result, the safety of their obshchaks.

      2. The global elite has the opportunity to transfer their common funds to AI and IT.

      3. It has also become possible to remove obshchaks from the jurisdiction of any of the countries, even into space, or to floating islands, and once and for all remove the possibility of nationalization or expropriation of their obshchaks.

      In this context, the United States, as a huge financial Golem created to protect the obshchak, is no longer needed. Not only that, it is even dangerous if, for example, a war or revolution breaks out in the country, and fanatics come to power who want to profit from this common fund and have the opportunity to stupidly shoot down all the satellites in orbit.

      Based on objective reasons, the project state of the USA, this Golem, is no longer needed by the owners of this project, and we will soon see how they (the owners of the project) will cut it into pieces.

      In this context, an agreement is very possible between the elites (including the elites in Russia and those under whom Ukraine turned out to be) on the liquidation of the no longer needed “project Ukraine”, and most likely, the cutting lines for Ukraine have already been determined.
      Obshchak: Thieves’ cash register. Mutual Assistance Fund in the criminal community About “Obshchak” – in criminal jargon, mutual assistance fund in the criminal community. There are two types of “community service” – in places of deprivation of liberty and outside of places of deprivation of liberty. According to the “thieves’ laws”, contributions to the “general fund” must be voluntary, although in practice this requirement is not always fulfilled

      • jld says:

        “but it would seem that the most technologically advanced and advanced branch of the US economy can first of all be automated and can completely get rid of people.”

        Except for the nerds who actually run the various computerized services, including AI like (especially AI like…), the wannabe “Masters of the World” are in for quite nasty surprises.
        This our era version of the Praetorian Guard.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          Update or continuation, same channel, same day:
          The subject of the dispute between the English Anglo-Saxons and the American Anglo-Saxons, in my opinion, is understandable.
          In Ukraine, they entered into a clinch, into a tough confrontation. The British want their opinion to be taken into account when reformatting the world, the States try not to notice them. The British are heating up the situation because of this and are trying to drag NATO into a hard star cutter, raising the stakes in the hope that they will be listened to. But the States have long been ready to close this topic.
          The United States and Britain have entered into a tough confrontation over the management of Ukraine. Now it is mainly dominated by the British, who have almost completely pushed people tied to the United States out of all processes. The only other thing the US manages is various anti-corruption bureaus and prosecutors.

          The British, on the other hand, are dragging the United States into absolutely unnecessary movements to aggravate the situation in Europe, moreover, regularly using nuclear blackmail.

          And the US decided to remind the British that they have problems that some time ago were very relevant for domestic politics. In parallel, they were reminded that these problems could spread to the first persons of the royal family.

          What they mean is that they can start the same game that lasted until 2001, when they stopped funding and arming the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

          That is why the FBI released a whole package of previously classified documents related to the numerous visits to the United States by the deceased Queen Elizabeth. The documents show that part of the threats dealt with by the FBI came from the IRA: many of the Queen’s visits occurred during the bloody Troubles in Northern Ireland.
          This is a very sensitive topic and can turn into significant problems for Britain in domestic politics.
          This is what we are now witnessing the close friendship of sworn friends ..

      • Fred says:


        Yes lots of TLDR blarney.

        What is the offshore dollar market? What is the difference between commercial banking and central banking? Which banks set the LIBOR rate and what replaces it in less than a week? What has been happening to the value of the EURO since the creation of SOFR? Into whose hands has wealth further concentrated with Lockdowns! for Covid? Which country’s intel agency funded both the White Helmets? How is that relevant in international affairs?

  4. Fourth and Long says:

    Claim: Ship of Ru fleet destroyed on N shore sea of Azov:
    Claim: Ukraine forces hit Belgorod region (within Ru) 290 times in a day with shells. 16
    На дороге Бровничи – Сушаны в Брянской области дрон атаковал машину с военными. Как минимум двое погибли.
    (On the road Brovnichi – Sushany in the Bryansk region, a drone attacked a car with the military. At least two have died.)
    See photo at …38730 link. I mention this incident-type again because it’s not the first, though I could really be mistaken. Because of my excessive anxiety that it indicates Reapers or Predators (please understand that I am not in possession of the skills necessary to figure it out). What is notable to me, a layman, is the superficial similarities with the hits on reputed terrorists during the GWOT – namely it is precise and not indiscriminate in that it is a hit on a car carrying Ru soldiers, as well as precise in destroying a very small object (a car). That was a feature of the GWOT drone hits, as I recall, which used very high flying advanced drones such as the Reaper & Predator. Oh, one more thing – if such weapons were being used with Ru, would either side be eager to say so in the newspapers?

    • TTG says:


      Small and cheap FPV drones are used as kamikaze drones against, trucks, artillery and IFVs on a regular basis now. They can certainly take out a car, even in Bryansk. Maybe that the next step for those Russian Volunteer Corps jokers.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        Thanks. Continuing in the mode of a martian visitor (who is curious & observatant but makes improper inferences based on accurate observation) it then seems this is possibly true: Since the results of their attacks are indistinguishable to the eyes and recording equipment, drones Tech has developed now to where these little bitsy drones are as deadly and threatening if not moreso than those awesome reapers and predators of the pleistocene gwot era.

  5. Any insight into who is providing the expertise, material, and manpower to build each of these pipelines, the one to Russia and the one to Turkmenistan?

    • TTG says:

      Keith Harbaugh,

      It appears CNPC is the prime mover in the Central Asian pipelines with the Kazakh national company also a major player. Gazprom wants CNPC more involved in the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline since Russia and Gazprom are now strapped for cash to complete such a project on their own right now.

  6. d74 says:

    There is more.
    Red Army newspaper headline: “China takes control of Central Asia”.

    On May 18 and 19, China gathered the leaders of the “C5”, -Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan-, in Xian, one of the capitals of ancient China. A symbol: this city was the starting point of the Great Silk Road towards Europe.

    China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have signed a document on new stages in the construction of a railway to bypass Russia.
    The article shows the final route of this railway line. Starting from Shanghai, it would end in Italy passing through Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey. It therefore avoids Russia by the South and doubles the current Silk Road.

    Security issues will inevitably arise. China is ready to train and equip necessary troops and is immediately putting 26 billion yuan ($3.6 million) on the table for this purpose. Obviously, this is the beginning of a military-economic bloc.

    Russia was neither informed nor consulted. “Nothing personal, just business.”
    With such friends…

    • Fourth and Long says:

      After causing an artificial full moon using secret methods, in order to increase the lunacy of their espionage-based prophecy (LLC) consulting service’s fees, the not so magic shaman’s 8-ball which they stole in the early 19th century from natives of … has this message on display in in magic porthole:

      Both the Russians and the Chinese are secretly making (strategic) deals with the Americans, and it looks like the Red Army of the Soviet Union has detected evidence thereof.

      Or is it a British trap to finish off China after they are finished with victims 1, 2, ..

  7. leith says:

    The Kremlin is starting to get nervous about Xi’s inroads into Central Asia. Not just Turkmenistan, but China is also overriding Kremlin influence in the the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. During the summit in Xian a short time ago Xi met with them all and stated “that their sovereignty, security, independence and territorial integrity would be safeguarded.” Who besides Moscow would Beijing be safeguarding them from?


    A Chinese sphere of influence in Mongolia is Xi’s next target. But that has probably already happened. China is Mongolia’s biggest trade partner and source of foreign investment. And Beijing has a huge investment in Mongolia’s copper-, coal-, and gold-mining.

    And yes, eventually “China will move on old Chinese territories she lost to Russia” as TTG mentions. But I’m thinking that will happen gradually. Han tourists and businessmen making inroads and supplanting the Russians throughout Siberia’s cities without even without a shot being fired. Or maybe she will try a miltary takeover if Putin loses badly in Ukraine?

    • Fourth and Long says:

      “Who besides Moscow would Beijing be safeguarding them from?”

      The Invisible Tentacles of All-Seeing [ ].

      For the contents of [ ], simply send your life savings with tissue sample to { } before … . For the address in { }please tell us the names of the directors of ] [ but only written in the script of the language of the pharmacist of [ ]’s President’s wayward son.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Go masters, not chess or checkers. Occupy, abide and increasingly occupy, abide and …
      Loop Until Condition[density of[Soap.bar.factory.atmosphere = LaunchCompletedNowCallitHeadsWeWinTailsYouLose]] or [LapTop.data = Erased[copies = All]]

      Short answer: No need to do anything more than consult ChatBoxCharlie, Honorable Mister Biggs, we at your service.

  8. Whitewall says:

    Something tells me I need to save this thread for future reference, especially in the years after V. Putin has departed this world. Those ‘Europeanish’ Russians might want to rethink a new friendship with Europe as opposed to the ‘old Khan’ with a long memory. A greatly slimmed down Russia might need other acquaintances.

  9. Christian Chuba says:

    f”I think China will move on old Chinese territories she lost to Russia”
    And what territory is that? I see a sliver of Russian land held by China in 1300 AD.

    China is going to do any energy project in central Asia to counter a potential, U.S. led blockade of their ocean routes. This will benefit Russia and other countries, including Iran.

    We have already confiscated one China bound tanker from Iran and hold annual naval exercises in the strait of Malacca. Why do we do that if not in preparation to squeeze China’s oil supply.

    • TTG says:

      Christian Chuba,

      It’s more than a sliver and it’s far more recent that 1300 AD.

      “However, after losing the Opium Wars, Qing China was forced to sign a series of treaties that gave away territories and ports to various Western powers as well as to Russia and Japan; these were collectively known as the Unequal Treaties. Starting with the Treaty of Aigun in 1858 and the Treaty of Peking in 1860, the Sino–Russian border was realigned in Russia’s favour along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. As a result, China lost the region now known as Outer Manchuria (an area of more than 1 million km2) and access to the Sea of Japan.”


      • PeterHug says:

        I think that is far more important to them than Taiwan. They probably would be quite happy to generate an Anschluss with Taiwan, but the other territories are of a completely higher order of importance, and are likely to occupy them for 10-20 years.

      • Christian Chuba says:

        Good point TTG, first time I heard of Outer Manchuria.

        China was Russia’s ‘Mexico’ during Russia’s expansion eastward vs our expansion westward, but did not take as big a haircut as Mexico did.

        But I’d say that Taiwan is more valuable and personal to them because it is technically, part of China and it is more populated. Taiwan holds a handful of islands that are extremely close to the mainland, most notably Kinmen in Xiamen Bay. That must stick in their claw.

        Also, Russia is not on the list of current territorial disputes. It would be more than a little odd for them to go from not talking about it to making it a top priority over Taiwan.

  10. Sam says:

    India and China have ejected each other’s journalists, virtually wiping out mutual media access and deepening a rift between the two most populous nations


    It appears that CCP and the current Indian government are escalating their conflict. India has banned TikTok and other Chinese social media, unlike the US. Xi is not only making a play for Central Asia in it’s contest with Russia while erasing the historical identity of the Central Asian people in their current territory.

    • Whitewall says:

      With his economy slowing, ‘Mr. Smiley’ seems to want to dig many holes at once.

  11. Sam says:

    Here’s a new piece I’ve co-authored with Yale’s @JeffSonnenfeld and @tiansteven98 on how today’s CEO’s need to see the writing on the Great Wall. Those who don’t will inevitably pay a steep price.


    IMO, Kyle Bass is on to something. CCP’s conflict with India, Japan, S.Korea and the US will grow as Xi exerts power in his near abroad.

  12. Sam says:

    China Evergrande Group said on Monday evening that its overdue debt, unpaid bills, and payments involved in lawsuits have piled up to nearly 900 billion yuan (US$127 billion).


    What is the primary reason that there has been no meaningful fiscal support for China’s recovery this year? The weakness of local government’s finances. Read our latest note:


    CCP drove GDP growth on the back of construction for the past few decades. Financed largely by banking system, shadow banking and local government debt. Of course they also became the world’s factory. However, the factory segment was a much smaller percentage of GDP growth compared to domestic construction. Now, it appears that the speculative end of the construction boom is topping out as the financial leverage is being pressured. Balance sheets which have long been upside down can’t easily be masked. CCPs banking system as a ratio to GDP is thrice the US. The only question is how the embedded losses in the banking system can be transferred to the bottom 90% of people.

    Let me give you a simple comparison with the warning for structural reasons it is not apples to apples. The United States has nominal GDP of let’s say $26 trillion USD and total commercial banking assets of let’s say $23 trillion USD. In other words, UNDER 100% of GDP. China conversely in local currency terms has nominal GDP of let’s say 120 trillion RMB but banking assets at the end of 2022 of 380 trillion RMB or more than 3 TIMES nominal GDP


    • Fred says:


      Evergrand’s problems are old news, though one should wonder by BlackRock bought so much of their almost worthless debt in 2021. The CCP faces significant trouble due to so many citizens putting retirement savings into residential offerings built by this company, or into the company itself.

      • Sam says:


        Evergrande is the old news that keeps giving. Now $127 billion in overdue debt, unpaid bills and lawsuit judgments. This story will continue until Xi transfers the losses to the bottom 90% of the Chinese people.

        • Fred says:


          The Chinese people are the ones who invested in Evengrande. Their own market wrote off that debt.

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