EEI needed for judgments about the Ukraine campaign

Essential Elements of Information (EEI) or whatever they call it now are some of the bases for sound analyses. Others are a lifetime of learning background information.

To judge the current situation, I would need to know:

  • Just how big and robust the various kinds of Ukrainian forces really are. In the Kharkiv axes of attack, they evidently achieved odds of somewhere around 8 to 1. They did that how? Their Kherson axes of attack drew Russian forces from the north. Clever, but that does not reveal what the overall balance of forces really is.
  • What is the actual remaining strength of Russian operational and potential reserves. I suspect that without conscription Russia’s possibilities are quite limited at present.
  • The terrain out in front of the Ukrainians remains a mystery to me. I know where the rivers and roads are but what about the ground in between? Trafficability, etc.
  • How much ammunition do the two sides have?
  • What is the actual state of politics in Russia? pl
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59 Responses to EEI needed for judgments about the Ukraine campaign

  1. jld says:

    Huh?
    This is from a 2015 post by Gleb Bazov who is somehow a hard core Russian lefty maniac.
    Isn’t this a bit dated?

    • blue peacock says:

      jld,

      A difference from 2015 is that the Ukrainian military with the assistance of the US have likely updated their doctrine based on newer weapon systems and a different set of strategies.

      A key factor IMO is that the Russians have been unable to achieve air superiority. The other factor is that the Russians have not been able to demonstrate agility on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military have proven destructive during the Kiev “feint” and in their tenacity while giving up ground in the east. They additionally knocked off the Black Sea fleet flagship and retook Snake Island and degraded the Russian Black Sea thrusts. This has consumed much Russian military resources and likely impacted them psychologically too. One should also not underestimate US & NATO tactical intelligence support.

    • Leith says:

      JLD –

      Got to love the Marshal Zhukov quote in your link: “Bark loud at the front and run around to bite at the sides and the back, clean up the bones from all sides.”

      • morongobill says:

        The Marshall must have had serious cojones, my guess is most Soviet flag officers were scared to death of Stalin(and
        his secret police.)

        • Leith says:

          Bill-

          Zhukov was the one who after Stalin’s death arrested Beria the head of the KGB to keep him from taking power. He grabbed him in a bear hug to keep him from buzzing for his KGB bodyguards. It was in the Kremlin surrounded by Beria’s security details. So they tied and gagged him and waited for darkness to sneak him in the trunk of a car to a military bunker until his trial and execution.

  2. Sam says:

    Col. Lang,

    A puzzlement for me, someone with no experience in military affairs, is the Kherson axis? If the Russian military moved large numbers of forces there to counter the supposed Ukrainian offensive and as it turned out the offensive was in the Kharkiv region, why aren’t the Russians with large numbers in the Kherson region not attacking the Ukrainian military to change the battlefield dynamic?

    Is that informative of the current state of the Russian military in Ukraine?

    • Pat Lang says:

      Sam
      IMO, yes.

    • TTG says:

      Sam,

      The Dnipro River limits military action for bot sides. The Ukrainians could clear their side of the river, but would have a tougher time continuing the offensive beyond the river. If the Ukrainian offensive completely fell apart, the Russians would have a tough time exploiting the opportunity because of the river and the degraded/destroyed bridges. All in all, it was a safe bet for Ukraine.

  3. Fourth and Long says:

    Checking the entry page to a country’s Wikipedia site is often a guage of sentiment not found in today’s articles which say United Russia won the regional elections hands down, which they did. It can be hacked obviously, but my point is that it is the elite thinking literate class that will determine things overall. Today it had a very somber story at 1:30 Eastern Time US – excerpt in case it’s edited.
    ———-
    Gravestone to V. E. Borisov-Musatov
    ” Tombstone of V. E. Borisov-Musatov ” – a monument of brown granular granite , installed at the burial site of a Russian artist of the Silver Age on the high bank of the Oka River on the outskirts of the city of Tarusa in June 1911. The author of the gravestone, created a year earlier, in 1910, is a contemporary and friend of Viktor Borisov-Musatov, modernist sculptor Alexander Matveev . It depicts a sleeping naked boy, so among locals, in fiction and in the mediaknown as “The Asleep Boy”. In accordance with the legend that has become widespread among the inhabitants of Tarusa, a teenager is depicted on the tombstone, whom Borisov-Musatov tried to save from the water. At the same time, the artist himself allegedly caught a cold, which led to his quick death.
    ———–
    Another which goes way back to Soviet days is Literaturnaya Gazetta – very formal, dignified and connected. Not going to be hacked nor a Western front like the Moscow times, meduza, rfel etc. Way down at the bottom it had an interview with an old eminence 25 yrs senior to the interviewer – his name was not Feodor Dostoyevsky, he was much more current but an old man now – he was identified to the interested reader as being the author of, I think, a dramatic piece called “The Idiot.”

    Rumor floated that Kazakhstan would leave CSTO, then immediately denied.
    Two days ago Georgia was reported making noises about joining an anti Ru grouping of some sort. Concurrent with Armenia being attacked by Azerbaijan.

    Napolitano had an elderly CIA guy – Devine – (I think) saying the Russians will handle it. He was very impressive Imo:

    Zelensky v Putin: Judge A Napolitano with Jack Devine

    https://youtu.be/aTUz4608IyA

  4. Fourth and Long says:

    On same Ru Wiki entry page in the “did you know” section at the bottom, is:

    ” Hitler’s Most Brilliant Speech ” was a response to a telegram from a ” crazy imbecile “.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%87%D1%8C_%D0%93%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0_28_%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F_1939_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0

    Interesting they use Rech Gitlera for Speech of Hitler. Playing on Wretch, and Reich. Речь is a Ru word for speech. Actually the article is very interesting in this and other contexts.
    Речь Гитлера 28 апреля 1939 года
    Язык
    Следить
    Править
    Речь Гитлера 28 апреля 1939 года — выступление Адольфа Гитлера перед рейхстагом в Кролль-опере. Оно последовало в качестве ответа на телеграмму Франклина Рузвельта от 15 апреля, в которой предлагалось разрядить напряжённость в международных отношениях. В рамках предлагавшегося договора Германия и Италия должны были дать гарантии ненападения на 31 страну (включая СССР) на срок от 10 до 25 лет, а взамен получали содействие в развитии международной торговли[1].

    • Peter Williams says:

      There is playing on Речь Гитлера. Speech is Речь, there is no “H” in Russian so “G” is usually used. Гитлера is masculine genitive singular, so it is simply Speech of Hitler. Wretch doesn’t translate directly into Russian, Бродяга (Tramp and a dozen other meanings) is probably closest, Reich is simply Рейк.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        You think I didn’t know all that?

        This board has seen the last of me.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        You are really trying my patience. Severely.

        Place “trituram” into Google translate under “detect language”.
        Place cursor to the right of the word next to the final m.
        Observe the incremental changes in meaning and languages as you back step into the word erasing one letter at a time.
        Question: why does trituram it begin with t r i ?

        Aliter haedinam sive agninam excaldatam: mittes in caccabum copadia. cepam, coriandrum minutatim succides, teres piper, ligusticum, cuminum, liquamen, oleum, vinum. coques, exinanies in patina, amulo obligas. [Aliter haedinam sive agninam excaldatam] a crudo trituram mortario accipere debet, caprina autem cum coquitur accipit trituram.

        Hot kid or lamb stew. Put the pieces of meat into a pan. Finely chop an onion and coriander, pound pepper, lovage, cumin, garum, oil, and wine. Cook, turn out into a shallow pan, thicken with wheat starch. If you take lamb you should add the contents of the mortar while the meat is still raw, if kid, add it while it is cooking.

        • cobo says:

          Three separate types of steps with the completed thought summed up. That was interesting. I’ve never studied Latin, just like the term “ipso facto.” I’ll need to get some things, but I’d like to try this. It would have to be lamb. I have no idea where to get kid.

          I piss people off sometimes (sometimes a lot). When someone does that again, I hope you reply with another language lesson and tasty recipe.

          • cobo says:

            Fourth and Long

            I’m sorry for being so thick, but I wasn’t through thinking through your reply. First I realized that the last letter ‘m’ in trituram probably designated the “I” in “I will grind.” Next, since you are a real 12 dimensional player, I figure that your comment makes a detailed reference to something in the comment above. It would, of course, be beyond my abilities to suss it out. Thanks for making me think.

          • Fourth and Long says:

            https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Apicius#De_re_coquinaria

            Ok. Zecretz out now. When I saw they keep the book in the Fulda museum, the fairy godmother of epileptic seizures got hold of me. I was led there via the mastic gums of Chios. Because I saw this guy performing Madam Broshkina, a classic of Alla Pugacheva’s. I thought his name Чижов reminded of the Island of Chios. Something about the battle of Alma and off I went to wander. If you find Alla’s performance in Belarus in xxxx and see who’s clapping and find the Russian lyrics to Мадам Врошкина you’ll see she’s very interesting and if you put her surname in a Ru translate bot you’ll find she’s involved with brooches, breeches, broaches, and another English word which resembles bro sure. Or she’s a old jilted cat lady.
            Her name contains a multitude, such as rosh (רֹאשׁ) a Hebrew word for head. Bro, kin, orb , ink ..
            Alla won the Orpheus prize in Romania or Bukovina and had a beautiful, gifted daughter with a performer from one of the Baltic states.
            Dmitri Чижов – Мадам Брошкина
            https://youtu.be/60Vkusso8Nk

            Alla Pugacheva – Madam Broshkina
            https://youtu.be/gKLIBxjsMHw

          • cobo says:

            Fourth and Long

            Thanks… homework :- /

  5. Barbara Ann says:

    I submit something which may be of interest re the final point:

    “A change of leader in the Kremlin (highly unlikely to come at the hands of the oligarchs) will not make the leadership that planned and supported the Ukrainian invasion fade away. Moreover, it would be difficult to come to terms with any post-Putin leadership because we know very little about the actors operating backstage”

    This is one of the conclusions of the author of an article dealing with the various constituencies which influence decision-making in the Kremlin, as well as how they have changed over time. His thesis is that the military faction has become increasingly important in recent years and that the Ukrainian invasion is merely the most obvious outward indicator of this.

    https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/spies-jurists-diplomats-military/

    Also, on the topics of ‘regime change’ and of whether Russia(ns) consider they are in an existential struggle, this from another author at the same august publication: “It looks like Russia has already entered a phase of struggle against Western dominance where it is too late to think about the consequences… Somewhat belatedly, a majority of Russian citizens begin to realize that the very existence of their country as an integral, independent and sovereign state is at stake. They are getting aware that there is a long struggle ahead, and a great deal will have to be sacrificed for success. In this sense, the external forces’ expectations to see Russia’s internal destabilization still look illusive

    • blue peacock says:

      Barbara Ann,

      I disagree with the author who believes “a majority of Russian citizens..realize…the very existence of their country…is at stake”. No. I don’t think this is true. On the contrary there continues to be large emigration which would lead to the conclusion that those people believed they had better opportunities and a better life in the west compared to contemporary Russia. The use of “patriotism” and “existential” are to justify the kleptocracy and the nostalgia of empire.

      My guess is that a sizeable portion of the population – the middle class and the working class – would much prefer a Russia with no empire ambitions and much more friendlier with the west. The oligarchs playground and liquid assets are all in the west. You don’t see any of them making a beeline for communist China.

      I would argue that post-Soviet Russia has yet to find real internal cohesion & stability. IMO the divisions among the populace in the US in comparison are out in the open. The urban vs rural. MAGA vs Woke. And similar to Russia we too have a kleptocracy that remains unchallenged and growing more powerful.

      • Barbara Ann says:

        blue peacock

        Something has to give in Russian politics and soon. Another significant loss on the battlefield and it will be impossible for the MoD to get away with more ridiculous spin of a “redeployment”. The inaction of the Russian leadership in the face of what looks objectively like the real risk of a military defeat is – well “puzzling” doesn’t begin to describe it.

        The above piece was on reflection a poor choice to share here, I will try and make amends. I’ve actually learned more about what may be going on inside the Kremlin from the opinions of ordinary Russians, at least the ones who express them via the internet. The strongest impression I have is that many patriotic Russians, at least those who support the SMO, see Putin’s action as at least constrained by the oligarchs. The latter are very much seen as a 5th column by the nationalists and whilst that didn’t matter during peacetime, it sure does now.

        On the key question of why Putin has still not yet ordered a general mobilization, the best explanation I have seen by far is the analysis given in an excellent and astonishingly frank opinion piece by the RUSSTRAT Institute, published on the 12th in the immediate aftermath of the Kharkiv counteroffensive (the timing is notable). I’d highly recommend it (translated version below). It can be summed up with a short quote: “..the announcement of full mobilization in Russia is equal to a revolution..”. The argument goes something like this:-

        A full mobilization would put the country on a war footing which necessarily would involve changing the economic model too. The problem is this may require the nationalizations of key industries, an action which would upset the delicate balance of power that has characterized the Putin era; he does the politics and the oligarchs stay out – in return for keeping their ill gotten gains. The oligarchs want peace – they are just businessmen – but this is no longer an option and in fact a failure to mobilize could result in them losing everything if Russia is defeated.

        Putin is thus attempting to find a solution that will pacify the nationalist faction, whose passions he has aroused with the invasion, while simultaneously not putting the oligarchs precious capital at risk of being sequestered by the war state. A conundrum and then some. I think this elegantly explains the delay in mobilizing much better than the more obvious but weaker argument that Putin does not want to upset the bourgeoisie by sending their children to fight.

        The very fact that such an article has been openly published in a respected Russian journal is informative in itself. It is a warning (explicitly stated) that time is short. I think we can expect a full mobilization announcement soon. The alternative is unthinkable; the war will be lost and both the nationalists and oligarchs will lose everything. So you are right in that post-Soviet Russia has yet to find real internal cohesion & stability. But time has run out. All that matters now is whether Putin acts before matters are taken out of his hands. Russia has a very strong and recently emboldened nationalist constituency and if there is to be a coup it will be by these guys and not the oligarchs. I wonder if there is a Russian Charles de Gaulle waiting in the wings.

        https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy_u/ru-en.en.2dbc2902-6323c8c8-ebbb44c3-74722d776562/https/russtrat.ru/scenarii/12-sentyabrya-2022-2038-11172

        (Change of the [SMO] strategy – time to find the answer is catastrophically short)

        • Notfakebot says:

          Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know. It goes almost without saying that there are Russians more hawkish than Putin who would sooner bring us to the brink of nuclear war.

          So far, Putin has shown good restraint in this respect. He still believes the tide can be turned through other means. That is likelier the case than fear that his chain of command lacks commitment.

          As respect to coup d’etat, Putin still wields threat of assassinating those he deems “traitorous,” which keeps many of Russia’s elite at his “disposal.” These elites are much reviled by all.

          I also believe he sufficiently purged military personnel who may have lacked commitment to his sense of patriotism. He spent much of his time doing this during Obama’s presidency as Russia sought to obtain a nuclear “advantage” (at least in number of weapons).

          Have they lost faith in him since? There are growing doubts, but I think the commitment remains. Many Russians understand that Ukraine was a red line for them and this is something their generals understand even more, much the same way Lemay and the Joint Chiefs felt about Cuba (Operation Northwoods, bay of pigs). Recall Kennedy feared a coup because he wasn’t hawkish enough for his own generals and had encouraged the making of the film Seven Days in May.

          I suspect their commitment to fight a nuclear war hinges more on whether they actually believe in their nuclear capabilities, not whether they fear the consequences or support Putin still. Doubts may exist owing to their failures in this war.

          Also, it has been observed that when Putin has to make a major decision, he tends to procrastinate and paralyze himself. I suspect that may be the case here, even more so after his decision to invade Ukraine proved to be a bad choice.

          He will take time to make a decision, exhaust all other reasonable options, but I think we are going to near a nuclear war if we don’t find a settlement of some kind with Russia and if the Russians are right to believe in their capabilities to wage one.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          Your first reference is a bit overly theoretical blah blah, the russtrat is brilliant however. The Panina woman knows her stuff. Highly educated and tapped into the grapevines.Russtrat is a great source. Novaya gazeta Europa is very good too but very different in orientation. Her modeling of the resonant dispersals of intersecting shockwaves shows her excellent Soviet science education, or at least a darn good memory thereof. It’s a serious “tell” so to speak.
          You get this week’s golden glove.

          • Barbara Ann says:

            F&L & Bill now I’ve read your latest comment

            Panina gets it, time is critically short to avoid a catastrophe of epic proportions, if indeed that is still possible. My sympathy for the plight of the Ukrainians does nothing to diminish the immense feeling of dread I feel for the fate the Russian people may be facing now. Does anyone seriously doubt the neocons will give Russia the Libya treatment if given the chance? Civil war in Russia is their desired outcome. And Nuland and the rest will celebrate it. They disgust me. This tragic plot and the flawed character of Putin could have come from the pen of the Bard himself.

        • blue peacock says:

          Barbara Ann,

          It appears the nationalist faction are synonymous with those who believe in the greatness of Russian Empire. This is different than the nationalist faction in the US – the America First group who prefer less American intervention in world affairs and less “free trade” and less power to the oligarchs.

          IMO, of course this is pure speculation on my part , is that there is a significant part of the Russian population who don’t share Putin’s irredentism. And there is likely a large grouping here who would much prefer a more western aligned Russia. The large Russian emigration is all to the west. This could be another factor in preventing a draft as there could be fear of an unanticipated reaction. Note that in the early days of the SMO there were protests that were quickly suppressed.

          My own feeling is that the Russian MIC played into Putin’s own sense of being a historical figure restoring Russian greatness. They may have had a misplaced belief in Russian military strength relative to the “untermesch” Ukrainians. Now that the Ukrainian military not only didn’t rollover but has taken the initiative there will be a hunt for scapegoats.

  6. TTG says:

    I’ve read rumors that the Ukrainian Army has a third strike force of four or so mech/armor brigades that has not been committed. Have no idea if that is true, but I think the limiting factor would be artillery tubes that are due for a refit. Some of the Polish self-propelled 155 systems are already heading to Lithuania fro refitting. I’m sure a number of the M777s have already had their barrels replaced. The captured tubes are probably in worse shape than any of the similar tubes in the Ukrainian inventory.

  7. TTG says:

    On the question of terrain, much of the agricultural land is crossed by a lot of drainage and irrigation ditches that would slow cross-country mobility and provide good defensive positions. It’s like ready made tank ditches.

  8. Pat Lang says:

    TTG
    Thanks. The commentariat babbles crap redolent of political philosophy.

  9. John Merryman says:

    Pat,

    How much do the larger geopolitical and economic factors weigh in?
    It seems it’s now really a war between Nato and Russia, so wouldn’t the inclination for the Russians to be as cautious as possible, logically stalling into and through the winter, to see how much it affects European solidarity?

    • JamesT says:

      John,

      I think the “economic/gas/oil war” is extremely important and I think you are on point to have raised it. It seems clear to me at this point that Russia is not going to win militarily – but they have a lot of room to turn the screws on Europe economically and if they simply settle down into a defensible military posture and do that they may at least bring the Europeans to a negotiating table.

      The October gas bills for consumers in the UK are crazy. They are better in the rest of Europe only because European governments will be spending enormous sums of money to subsidize those prices … and Russia has only cut off some of the gas and oil at this point, they can raise prices further.

  10. Lars says:

    As far as the first point, I don’t think we will know for some time, but it appears that the Russian military is degrading rather rapidly, but more and more is being revealed.

    Regarding the second point, again not enough is known, but a lot of people in the know agree that a draft would be politically unpopular and such questions as who will train a large influx of recruits, most unwilling?

    I think TTG has dealt adequately with point three.

    Point four is again unknown, but I suspect Ukraine has allies with resources and I also suspect, from reports that I have seen, the Russians are running out of resources.

    Regarding the last point, it appears that the government has reasonable control, but there are indications that it is fragile. For some time now, I am of the opinion that the real problem will come from the east and there are indications that things are starting to percolate in central Asia and in the south of Russia. That may end up being too much for the government to handle and repression does not work as well as in the past. Too much information is moving around and no matter how much censorship you apply, it will have minimal effects.

    My opinion is that Russia is about to have a painful encounter with reality and it will be up to the elites to find a solution before the lower strata start to rebel, at which point all bets are off. It will however create a dangerous situation.

  11. jim ticehurst.. says:

    Sir…I Looked up Essential Elements of Information…Intelligence Ukraine..

    The Article that came up was From The New York Times..Good Photos of Weapons in Ukraine…Good Report With Data Titled “Ukrainian Officials Drew on U.S. Intelligence To Plan Counter Offensive..”
    It Was at https://nytimes.com/2022/09/10/us/politics/ukraine-military-intelligence.html
    JT

  12. Pat Lang says:

    Lars
    You don’t seem to understand. This is not a f–k–g game. TTG for all his good work has not told us what the actual strength of the two sides is. He has told us what has happened. Without some of the information I am seeking it is impossible to make even remotely valid judgments about the likely course of future events.

  13. KjHeart says:

    On the Political Situation in Russia question: I am thinking you all have probably seen something about a September 14th assassination attempt on Putin… This report from ‘Russian Sources’ has more detail so maybe more than a
    rumor this time? It is a writer out of South Africa. The article states that some of Vlad’s security (staff) had suspected involvement in the ‘attempt’

    https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/14/breaking-news-vladimir-putin-survives-assassination-attempt-says-kremlin-insider/

    Here is the same author stating that the Kremlin is not discussing mass mobilization at this time…

    https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/13/the-kremlin-says-its-not-discussing-mass-mobilisation-after-losses-in-ukraine/

    Now – I am aware that both articles could be inaccurate/rumormongering/disinformation or some truth to them.. I was waiting for more (credible detail) on the 9-14 assassination rumor – waiting for other news sources to corroborate independently – so far only one or two lines on it elsewhere (that I can find) and very few details.

    I am more interested in Vlad’s relationship with China as Xi said the CCP supports Russia- The Ruble to Chinese Yuan valuation chart here shows a sudden drop in early September… That drop is making me think the China/Russia relationship has had a significant recent change

    https://www.mataf.net/en/currency/converter-CNY-RUB/evolution

    Kj

    • Fourth and Long says:

      In my opinion a feint (or fake news) designed to make the population think Putin’s days are numbered so they talk with less caution on the phone or in social media. But it could also be a fake accident and report designed to make Putin think people are not pleased.

      Xi said that the Xi – Putin friendship has lasted even through the pandemic. Since the pandemic in Russia is considered noise that is behind them, but not that way at all in Xi’s China, it was a masterpiece of diplomatic understatement saying, without mentioning Ukraine at all, that the disturbance of the Ru v Ukr war is not looked on with benevolence in his quarters.

      • KjHeart says:

        f & L – too many assassination rumors to chase on the internet – to be sure – just that there are so many ‘rumors’ (and some are getting more detailed) is something..

        The Ruble to Yuan and Yuan to Ruble relationship charts do not inverse one another as would be expected.. am watching for some of the financial experts to speak about it.. (IMO) I doubt it is innocuous

  14. Lars says:

    I agree that this is not a game, but as I pointed out, some of the information you seek is not available, at least not yet in the public domain. I also pointed out that from what is known, there are some indications about the general situation.

  15. MT_Bill says:

    German perspective on remaining Russian reserves. 60% of ground forces committed in Ukraine. Original in German, google translation to English. Posted at NC this morning. This story is for the German domestic audience, but not quite sure how to use that in interpreting the info presented.

    https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/eberhard-zorn-bundeswehr-general-warnt-vor-zu-grosser-euphorie-ueber-ukrainische-militaer-erfolge_id_146622564.html

  16. John Merryman says:

    Given the Russian birth rate has been very low for the last couple of generations and they are the largest country, in terms of geography, it would seem the Ukrainian strategy of trading lives for ground, wouldn’t make as much sense to the Russians.

  17. mcohen says:

    Putin announced that developing countries should get a better share of ukrainian wheat.That in a nutshell sums it all up.
    By taking this route he has brought on side all the countries dependent on ukrainian wheat.Also seized the moral high ground.
    Seizing the moral high ground is an essential element.Especially since ukrainian wheat suppliers took money from China but never delivered.$2 billion i think.
    This war is a food resource war.Surprised that no one else comments on this.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.euronews.com/my-europe/amp/2022/09/09/putin-says-nearly-all-ukraines-grain-has-gone-to-the-eu-is-he-right

  18. A.Pols says:

    The article about the need for EEI is topical and time appropriate, given the various conflicting claims from the various sides in this conflict and their shared desire to present a brave face.
    1.) No objective information about the respective resources, both materiel and personnel.
    2.) No objective information about the collective mind set of either side.
    3.) Although the Ukrainians seem to think theirs is a death struggle, do the Russians view it as an existential threat posed by Nato as some say, or are they still treating it as an SMO rather than a war and are they just being methodical and not yet ready to let the dogs out?
    I struggle with these and other questions and of course I’d love to have a “God’s Eye” view of the whole thing but neither side is (in my opinion) being really candid. The Ukies of course want to keep the supply train of western weapons going, so they have to present a brave face; after all we love a winner don’t we?
    Sadly enough, I as a rank amateur have no prediction of how this is going to end up and I’m not sure any of the experts do either. If the Russians really aren’t scraping the bottom of the barrel and have many resources that aren’t being employed, and if their govt. remains on political firm ground, then I suppose they can continue to grind and eventually have their way. But if not??

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Two historical pieces. First especially. Compares this situation with Nicholas I and his lead in to the Crimean War defeat which was ignited by his war with Ottomans in contested regions. It’s very good. Particularly because it cites historical precedent for Million man army losing to a much smaller foreign contingent. Parallels are eerie. The publication is timely and motivated one thinks. Need to translate it in a bot like Google or Yandex.
      Second I haven’t finished yet, treats other historical transitions of Ru. Barbara Ann’s link to Rosstrat is immensely informative above. Modi spoke up against the war publicly to Putin.

      https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/09/15/imperiiu-ne-vosstanovit

      https://bigserge.substack.com/p/three-regimes-in-russia

      Modi rebukes Putin publicly:
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/16/kherson-ukraine-russia-war-putin/

      • Fred says:

        “Putin has repeatedly said that the United States is plotting so-called “color revolutions” similar to those which swept established elites from power in places such as Ukraine. …..
        The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in the “Maidan” Revolution and Russia annexed Crimea, with Russian-backed separatists fighting Ukraine’s armed forces.”

        from CNBC. 2014 was the Obama administration, his people are planted throughout the Biden administration. (Though some of the same attitude was present in Trump’s as well.)
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/17/indias-modi-tells-russias-putin-that-now-is-not-an-era-of-war.html

        • Barbara Ann says:

          Fred

          Yes, the color revolutionaries have finally and inevitably focused their attention on attempts at a domestic star-spangled revolution.

      • Barbara Ann says:

        F&L

        I enjoyed the Novaya Gazeta article and the Crimean War comparison. That organ is now entirely in exile as of Monday when the Russian Supreme Court revoked its print license.

        But wow, the ‘BigSerge’ post was simply the best potted political history of Russia I’ve read and a perfect complement to the Russtrat piece. The description of the workings of the Soviet autocratic party-state system is all the more relevant given the attempts to implement exactly such a system in America right now.

  19. jim ticehurst.. says:

    There is a Very Good story on Reuters Called “What Are Vladimir Putins -Options
    -After-Russian-Military-Setback-Ukraine…” Many other Ukraine Articles there also

    https://Reuters.com/World/Europe/what-are-Vladimir-Putins-options-after-Russian
    -military-setback-Ukraine–2022-09-13/

    JT

  20. jim ticehurst.. says:

    To nFind The Reuters Story on Putin..I did a Google Search..

    Putins Options Ukraine The Reuters Site And others Come Up..Good Info..
    JT

  21. MJ says:

    Input on the morale of the Ukrainian forces:

    https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1570670406734090240

    Does this look like a losing army?

    • Leith says:

      MJ –

      At a guess that may be one of the SPH 109 battery that reportedly just crossed the Sivertsky Donetsk river? If true the Ukrainian offensive is moving a lot further forward than official reports indicate.

  22. KjHeart says:

    Looking more into the financial(s) on Russia – I think it was Vegetius (roman Military Historian) who said that “An Army Marches on it’s stomach”

    From OAN News TomMcGrath: The US State Department is allows financial safe havens regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal. In plain speak: Because Russia is participating in the negotiations with Iran any financial operation that Russia can tag as ‘related to Iran’ can be a place to move cash.
    https://www.oann.com/state-dept-to-allow-russian-financial-safe-havens-to-revive-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

    Xi and Vlad recently had a series of meetings in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – it was reported that Xi told Vlad that he is confident of holding the 20th congress that he has no fear of being ousted – Xi also stated that the biggest threat to mainland China is from within.. It was reported that Xi stumbled on the 7th step going to the airplane and that now no one in China is allowed to publicly mention the number ‘7″

    The New Federation of China just came out with a short video and list of the big banks in Mainland China [read: CCP banks] that have failed.

    Here are a few (important ones typed the text from NFC and Miles Guo)

    “Senjing Bank – limiting withdrawals to 500 Yuan
    Hengfeng Bamk declaring bankruptcy
    Baosaeng Bank entering bankruptcy (Nov 17, 2020)
    Since April 17th four rural banks in Henan province have trouble meeting withdrawal requests including:

    Kaifeng, Dongfeng Rural bank; Yuzhou Xinminsheng Rural Bank
    Shangcai Huimin Rural Bank and Hanghaui Rural Bank”

    (I mentioned the protests of depositors in Henan Province in another post)

    “Henan and Xincaifu Group indicated 40 Bn in missing deposits can only guarantee depositors only 500,000 Maximum

    The deposits in Shengjing bank have been appropriated by Xu Jiayin and appropriated by other politburo members in the form of bank loans. (and that money is gone forever). Politburo member Wangqishan bought an opulent private jet, purchsed from money stolen from the Chinese people though HNA.

    Sanxhi and Quinxu, same problem – millions of deposits missing – Henan BIRC considers this illegal and the depositors are devastated. Henan Rural Bank colluded with Nanjing Bank in appropriating deposits..”

    This text is all from a New Federation of China (Miles Guo) page video – I figure you all do not have to go to Gettr if you do not wish to. https://gettr.com/post/p1qziv31152

    SO now I get to those Ruble to Yuan and Yuan to Ruble exchange rates over the last year… the Yuan has been steadily gaining against the Ruble which means Russia has been sending money to China (the CCP) and that China has NOT been sending as much money to Russia – while Russia is in a war…

    Miles Guo is also of the opinion the Vlad and Xi will stay together “because if they do not the world will tear them apart’

    Add to this that FedEx shares plunged 23% – the Daily Mail and CNBC’s Cramer had stories on it – FedEx has had to go into ‘cost effective mode’ because there has been a significant shrinking of the economy- the shrinking is everywhere but planes coming from mainland China are only about half full of cargo. This report underlines the China is falling financially (looks like US Great Depression on steroids).

    The divergence (since September 5th) of the Ruble to Yuan exchange means Russia/Vlad has made a financial change (significant or long term I can only guess)

    This possibly explains the poor showing of force via military exercise near Taiwan.
    Russia’s ally Xi, is soon going to have trouble paying his own military (IMO) and the minute that happens, Russia may not have the promised military backing either..

    kj

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Thanks. Confirms my sources but with far more nutriment. Now back to Tan Locoloonies of A to Ze ya’all. It’s Over, Pop, You Late.

  23. John Minehan says:

    Good questions. Of course, you have been at this a while. . . .

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