Last year at this time, Europeans worried about freezing without natural gas imports from Russia. That didn’t happen, and won’t this year. The European Union enters the winter of 2023-2024 with gas storage tanks nearly 95% full. Germany and its neighbors have activated half a dozen terminals for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG). France laid plans for six new nuclear power reactors. Thermostats are down and solar power capacity up by a quarter.
The EU supertanker turned with an alacrity that surprised Vladimir Putin, and just about everyone else. “We can say that we have done it,” says Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead European energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “The REPower EU plan has worked.”
But there has been a cost. European gas prices have settled at about twice their 10-year average, says Dimitar Lilkov, a researcher at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. EU governments shelled out more than 600 billion euros ($647 billion) in consumer energy subsidies last year, he figures, an unsustainable pace. The heaviest blow could fall on industry, though. Cheap Russian gas accounted for a third or more of EU supplies before Putin invaded Ukraine last year. That helped keep a range of energy-intensive factories pumping out aluminum, steel, fertilizer, or ceramics in Germany and elsewhere. EU steel production dropped 11% in 2022, and has fallen again this year. That’s one reason Germany is facing its first recession in three decades, excepting a pandemic dip, Lilkov says. “If you break the German industrial model, that’s what’s driving all of Central and Eastern Europe too,” he warns. Cyclical factors like weak Chinese demand and soaring interest rates are also slamming industry. Still, the energy shock could do lasting damage, says Jacob Mandel, a gas analyst at Aurora Energy Research. “There’s a risk that some industry is gone forever,” he says.
A more optimistic view comes from Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Global LNG supplies are on track to jump by half by 2028, mostly thanks to the U.S. and Qatar, she says. China, which was expected to gobble much of this extra output, may actually use less LNG than it has already contracted for as its economy slows, she adds.
Europe can add import infrastructure fast and flexibly thanks to the emerging technology of “floating storage and regasification units,” which can be anchored offshore and relocated as necessary. Germany alone has leased five of them. France and Germany have both sealed long-term LNG supply deals with Qatar over the past year, which should help stabilize prices, Lilkov says. Germany’s governing coalition, which includes the Green Party, faced down activists fearing that the rush for new gas supplies would endanger renewable energy goals. “We may not need all these regasification terminals,” Jaller-Makarewicz comments. “Everyone panicked at the same time.”
One future no one in Europe is talking about is a return to dependence on Russian natural gas. Putin himself, not EU sanctions, cut most of the export flows, presumably hoping that would weaken Western support for Ukraine. His gamble didn’t work out. Russia’s plans to sell its gas to China instead are creeping forward slowly and at enormous cost for new pipelines. “Most of Russia’s gas is stranded in the Western part of the country,” Mandel says. “The era of massive sales to Europe is over.”
Comment: This appears to be a fairly even handed overview of the gas war between Europe and Russia from Barron’s magazine. Russia never expected Germany to shut down the Nord Stream pipelines and Europe never expected Russia to shut down near all the gas flowing to Europe. Both were surprised, both miscalculated, both paid a price, but both muddled through. The world distribution of energy is still adjusting. It will never go back to the way it was. This will remain a major feature of the returning cold war on the European continent.
TTG
The legacy of the first US Secret Police chief (that we know of) lives on. If you pay attention to obscure details like I sometimes do, you notice that both J Edgar Hoover and John Dennis Hastert each had first and last initials J and H. JEH and JDH.
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Pornography – male homosexual pornography, or “gay” porn – filmed in United States Senate.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12870231/Congressional-staffer-gay-porn-senate-hearing-room.html
A frisky Congressional staffer has been accused of filming an amateur gay porn video inside a Senate hearing room.
The employee had sex with an unknown man within the confines of the politically significant building, according to the Daily Caller.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Hastert
John Dennis Hastert (/ˈhæstərt/; born January 2, 1942) is an American former politician, educator, convicted felon and sex offender who represented Illinois’s 14th congressional district from 1987 to 2007 and served as the 51st Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1999 to 2007.[1] Hastert was the longest-serving Republican Speaker of the House in history.
In 2016, he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for financial offenses related to the sexual abuse of teenage boys.
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John Henry – Foggy Mountain Boys.
https://youtu.be/vAKV8iAsnUU
And this post of yours, exactly how does it help understand the Europeans energy problems?
The Europeans have been enslaved to the UK, US (and regarding energy Norway) – Brexit was a big move in that direction and a huge deception pulled off on the British public. It goes hand in hand with the Ukraine war which has been back on the drawing board since Yeltsin’s day. The UK foreign policy is always to keep the continent divided (Europe plus UK was becoming a unit previous to Brexit) and a major facet of the US foreign policy is to keep Russia and Germany from joining up especially given the resources of one and strong technical proficiency of the other.
“John Henry was a steel driving man.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Henry
Joseph Henry (December 17, 1797[1][2]– May 13, 1878) was an American scientist who served as the first secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. He was the secretary for the National Institute for the Promotion of Science, a precursor of the Smithsonian Institution. He also served as president of the National Academy of Sciences from 1868 to 1878.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_(unit)
The henry (symbol: H) is the unit of electrical inductance in the International System of Units (SI).[1] If a current of 1 ampere flowing through a coil produces flux linkage of 1 weber turn, that coil has a self inductance of 1 henry. The unit is named after Joseph Henry (1797–1878), the American scientist who discovered electromagnetic induction independently of and at about the same time as Michael Faraday (1791–1867) in England.
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The Stanley Brothers – Rank Stranger
https://youtu.be/eRalJveqbvQ
George Pegram plays John Henry.
https://youtu.be/Kjkbo6iTfgs
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Faraday
Michael Faraday FRS (/ˈfærədeɪ, -di/; 22 September 1791 – 25 August 1867) was an English scientist who contributed to the study of electromagnetism and electrochemistry. His main discoveries include the principles underlying electromagnetic induction, diamagnetism and electrolysis. Although Faraday received little formal education, as a self-made man, he was one of the most influential scientists in history.It was by his research on the magnetic field around a conductor carrying a direct current that Faraday established the concept of the electromagnetic field in physics. Faraday also established that magnetism could affect rays of light and that there was an underlying relationship between the two phenomena.He similarly discovered the principles of electromagnetic induction, diamagnetism, and the laws of electrolysis. His inventions of electromagnetic rotary devices formed the foundation of electric motor technology, and it was largely due to his efforts that electricity became practical for use in technology.
As a chemist, Faraday discovered benzene, investigated the clathrate hydrate of chlorine, invented an early form of the Bunsen burner and the system of oxidation numbers, and popularised terminology such as “anode”, “cathode”, “electrode” and “ion”. Faraday ultimately became the first and foremost Fullerian Professor of Chemistry at the Royal Institution, a lifetime position. Faraday was an experimentalist who conveyed his ideas in clear and simple language; his mathematical abilities, however, did not extend as far as trigonometry and were limited to the simplest algebra. James Clerk Maxwell took the work of Faraday and others and summarized it in a set of equations which is accepted as the basis of all modern theories of electromagnetic phenomena. On Faraday’s uses of lines of force, Maxwell wrote that they show Faraday “to have been in reality a mathematician of a very high order – one from whom the mathematicians of the future may derive valuable and fertile methods.” The SI unit of capacitance is named in his honour: the farad.
Albert Einstein kept a picture of Faraday on his study wall, alongside pictures of Arthur Schopenhauer and James Clerk Maxwell. Physicist Ernest Rutherford stated, “When we consider the magnitude and extent of his discoveries and their influence on the progress of science and of industry, there is no honour too great to pay to the memory of Faraday, one of the greatest scientific discoverers of all time.
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The names Henry and Faraday each end in the same 25th letter of the Latin alphabet.
F&L –
You keep posting links for wannabee bluegrass musicians. When are you going to post the real thing – Bill Monroe and the Blue Grass Boys?
Leith,
Salty Dog Blues – Bill Monroe
https://youtu.be/tiRu03RgSWw
Salty Dog Blues – Dolly Parton & Bill Monroe
https://youtu.be/TWh07XHVRdI
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Am I allowed to listen to Johnny Cash singing this song or must it be Jimmy Rogers?
In the Jailhouse Now – Jimmy Rogers
https://youtu.be/p3L2qf3q-ok
In the Jailhouse Now – Johnny Cash & Merle Haggard.
https://youtu.be/1aYcdfv4Tn0
Leith,
For some real bluegrass musicians who wanna be something else…The Dead South.
One of their originals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C7QlRhmRPE
They’ve done bluegrassy covers for everything from “You Are My Sunshine” to the grunge rock anthem “Chop Suey”. A fun bunch of s&#@-kickers, if you ask me.
F&L – Jimmie, the Father of Country Music has my vote. During the Great Depression my Dad had been thrown off a DRGW train (dirty rotten and going west he used to call it) and he sometimes would sing Jimmie’s RR songs. Besides, Johnny Cash had that phony outlaw image, and he stole (oops I meant adapted) 90% of his biggest hit from Gordon Jenkins Crescent City Blues.
Mark Logan – Thanks, good music. Canadians but there’s a long tradition there. My maternal grandmother’s people came from up there and she always played their music. It had some Quebec sounds but also the same Scot & Irish influences that were in Bluegrass. She still had her old hand-me-down mandolin, an old world pot-bellied version not the flatbacks they use nowadays.
Leith….Your Comments about Good Music .,Your Dad..Railroads…Reminds Me of One of MY Favorite Songs and Singer…King Of The ROAD..
Roger Miller….1936….1992..
Smoking Old Stoggies I Have Found
Short But Not To Round
Know Every Engineer..On Ever Train
All Thier Chi;ldren And All Of Thier Names
King Of The ROAD..
Regards JIM
Thanks, Leith, I love Jimmy Rogers too but am entranced by Johnny Cash’s wonderful baritone. Meanwhile my age is showing but not in a good way – I misslabeled Muleskinner blues as Salty Dog blues. And my blood isn’t Type-O.
Jim…
Miller was one of the good ones.
Morongobill,
Homosexuality was rampant in Nazi Germany in the lead up to the 2nd world war and a very significant homosexuality liberation movement was in evidence previous to the Nazi party seizure of power in 1933. Yes, I know that once they took power many homosexuals were locked up and made to wear pink stars. Same threads are in evidence here especially in the US. You have transvestite officers in the US military and you have Ron DeSantis. The leader of the brownshirt SA was Rohm, a notorious homosexual. Glenn Greenwald is very right wing. Those things are barometers.
F&L. Much as I agree with your view of the Ukraine war there are a couple of points where I have reservations.
1. Below I attempt a rebuttal of your view “The Europeans have been enslaved to the UK, US…”.
LeaNder submitted an article from a British information warrior – Lieven, if it matters, but the information warriors, British or US, are all changing to much the same tack now – and in the course of looking at that I also tried to argue with the view that the Europeans are the unwitting victims of the Washington neocons.
American observers tend to see this war as a Russia/US match with the Europeans as little more than sidekicks. Not so. The White Tiger comes out of Europe, not the States.
2. There’s another point I must also disagree with you on – (“Europe plus UK was becoming a unit previous to Brexit)” That implies we are no longer a unit.
But on many matters and certainly in the all-important matter of foreign policy Brexit, as we call that unfortunate shambles, made little difference. Have submitted this link before:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference
We were gunning for Russia well before February 2022 and the Euros with us.
EO,
Possibly it’s simply that I am more familiar with Great Britain than with Germany, having attended schools there and speaking the language. However it may be I find them more cunning than any people I’ve encountered and exceedingly dangerous. Coupled with the Jews since well before Disraeli, they together inspire the fables of reptilian masters of the Universe. And their record of ruling continents is massively impressive. They each totally infiltrate our media and entertainment industies which means that as a doddering old retired man I can’t seem to get away from them. So I am suspicious and complain. I could tell you some juicy current things but don’t consider it wise at the moment.
Not a huge amount of difference between the English and the Germans, F&L. Just that we’ve been outsourcing for longer, so we tend to get the cheaper cabins on the Titanic.
That’s a good one, EO. (!) They had reservations on the Lusitania though. (horrendous pun).
“Putin himself, not EU sanctions, cut most of the export flows, presumably hoping that would weaken Western support for Ukraine.”
This is a big lie, a very big lie. To shame the author and cancel out everything else.
In February 2022, in Poland, Biden said: “NS2 will be destroyed. We have the means and we will do it. It will be hard for Europeans [without Russian gas]. They will suffer, but that’s the price I’m willing to pay to make the Russians lose”. Beside him, Ursula von der Leyen, ecstatic, approved with a rhythmic shake of her head.
These are not exact words, but the meaning is guaranteed.
All these biased journalistic rags make you think that the profession has become a dumping ground for fractured heads.
d74,
No Russian gas ever flowed through NS2. It was halted before it started, but it was Germany who halted that flow on the first day of the Russian invasion. Russia cut the gas flow to Germany in half in June 2022 and stopped it altogether in September 2022.
TTG,
I read “Putin himself, not EU […] cut…”
You say “Germany alt the flow”.
It’s a complicated affair, with the turbo-pumps that didn’t work (Rolls-Royce technology sold to Siemens, who inherited the hot potato).
“Putin himself” re-proposed to restart the 1/2 NS1’s pipe unharmed. Germany will choose economic suicide again and again, of course. Ursula will endorse it.
Russian gas has long had the knack of pissing off the USA. Example: Euro-Siberian Pipe 1982. CIA sabotage (entrapment) of the same date is a magnificent operation, but that’s another matter.
By the way: the expression “Putin himself” for a complex government action is enough to discredit its author. We need reasonably reliable information, not warlike false shortcuts.
TTG,
“Russia cut the gas flow to Germany in half in June 2022 and stopped it altogether in September 2022.”
Sanctions by the West? What sanctions…….
Fred,
The cut off of gas was Russia’s answer to the sanctions.
TTG,
They weren’t going to get paid for it so they didn’t keep pumping it for free? How dare they…..
Fred,
In the same vein, Germany and the rest of Europe are under no obligation to buy oil, gas or anything else from Russia.
@TTG
“are under no obligation to buy…”
I fail to see how this is a counter-argument to Fred statement that the Russians cut of the gas because they were not going to get paid.
Can you explain?
jld,
Russian gas supply to Europe was not sanctioned at all in 2022. It was free to be bought and sold, but probably not through Russia’s preferred banks. As Russia tightened the gas spigot as that year wore on, Europe looked elsewhere for her gas. Even at the higher price of LNG, Europe has no incentive to return to Russian gas anytime soon. It’s too risky a proposition.
TTG
Russia said they would only accept payments for gas in Rubles, because if they accepted payments in USD those USD would get seized (just like their other USD in western banks had been seized).
Europe refused to pay in Rubles – so no gas for Europe.
I believe that US clandestine forces played a major part in blowing up NS2, but TTG is right – that isn’t what stopped gas flowing from Russia to Europe.
There was a classic school-yard tit-for-tat spiral dance through the first year of the Ukraine war; Germany said “we don’t want your gas, so there”, Russia said “you can’t have my gas, so there”. Germany & Russia both lost; Qatar and Texas won.
Elkern. Northstream 1 supply.
Very difficult to get reliable information. On whether it was the Russians who cut off NSI, a short summary from way back. Did my best to get it accurate but we’d need someone in the industry to say whether it is:-.
“There was a problem with the pumps. It looked at the time as if the Russians were deliberately restricting flow, using pump repair as an excuse. I’m not sure about that now.
“The pumps had to be repaired in Canada. Canada refused to release them because of sanctions. When Canada did release them at Scholz’s urgent request, there were further problems getting the repaired pumps back to Russia. The Russians wanted the pumps supplied sealed from the factory and sent direct via air freight. This is normal engineering practice with this type of sophisticated machinery, to preclude damage or tampering en route from the repairer.
“Instead the pumps were sent via Germany and put on public exhibition unsealed. That was not satisfactory from an engineering and legal liability point of view. There was also the problem that to receive the pumps the Russians had themselves to bend the sanctions rules. That also complicated matters when it came to legal liability.”
We can read that as “Russia cut off the gas”. Or we can read it as the sanctions and maintenance difficulties making it difficult to keep the pumps running. Doesn’t matter which way we read it now. Someone blew up the pipes.
All except one. NS2 still has one pipe that’s said to be operable. Are the Russians refusing to supply gas through that pipe, or are the Germans refusing to take it?
I think they’re refusing to take it. If so, more fool them.
…………………
Could make you cry, that gas saga. Germany had a supply of cheap piped gas that was vital for its industrial base. Long term contract, well below current spot and miles below current LNG price. They’d kept that supply safe in spite of the tussle about the Third Energy package. They’d deliberately excluded it from the sanctions.
Then some bastard blew up NS1. We don’t know who and probably never will for sure. But if that fourth pipeline really is still operable the Germans are cutting off their nose to spite their face. I get a lot of stick for calling Scholz a loser. But if he’d sat down and planned how to screw up the Heimat he couldn’t have made a better job of it
“We can read that as “Russia cut off the gas”. Or we can read it as the sanctions and maintenance difficulties making it difficult to keep the pumps running. Doesn’t matter which way we read it now. ”
That’s a perfectly asinine statement. It matters a great deal and the people on the other side aren’t being persuaded by BS any longer.
“We don’t know who and probably never will for sure”
That’s another falsehood.
Fred – my personal view on the pre-explosion restriction of flow through NS1 and on what could possibly happen after the Ukrainian war is over:-
Russia held to contracts rigorously throughout the old cold war. It will wish to keep that reputation now.
It’s moving to new trading partners. With some of those partners it well be engaging in investment heavy infrastructure projects. Those partners won’t want to go to the trouble of putting in, say, new pipelines in they fear that Russia will cut the flow in the event of any dispute.
So my view is that that is the reason for the otherwise odd fact that Russia honoured its contracts with a hostile Europe and still continued to supply it with gas and oil. Also why the pump problems were genuine and not invented.
……………………..
Problem is, seems some of those supply contracts or arrangements are now running out. Putin said at the start of the SMO that a decision would be made on whether to renew them when the time came. I submitted a link recently to a brief comment from Zakharova to the same effect.
I was convinced at the start that the SMO was deliberately provoked by the West. That in order to overextend and unbalance Russia. To destabilise it. Events after the SMO started confirm that view.
That’s a controversial view and one I think repudiated by most in the West. Point is, it’s a view increasingly held in the countries Russia is moving over to trading with, or trading more with. The average Indian or South African or Chinese will shed no tears if Europe fails to secure supplies from Russia. And not renewing a contract is not the same as breaking an existing contract in any case.
So the Russians can keep their reputation for holding to contracts but still leave us in Europe unsupplied. Piped natural gas is a special case because some of their gas fields are conveniently close to Europe but LNG, oil and raw materials are fully fungible so it doesn’t make a lot of odds to them whether they supply Europe or someone else.
Since it looks as if Europe as a whole will remain virulently hostile to Russia it’s difficult to see why the Russians should continue to supply Europe with hydrocarbons and raw materials. Would you engage in amicable trade with me if I were chucking bricks through your window? And if you could trade equally well with someone else who wasn’t?
……………………
On the pipe explosions, there was a long discussion on that hosted by TTG recently. There seemed to be no cut and cried proof for any of the theories so maybe it’s a question of waiting for further evidence to emerge.
My own interest in that was not in wondering who did it. It was in wondering why Scholz was so determined to sweep it all under the carpet.
Fred – I see typing too fast has screwed up another comment submitted. Last time it was because I was mixing in a massive bake with the typing. This time I plead the disruption of fitting an insulated flue for the wood stove .
“It’s moving to new trading partners. With some of those partners it will be engaging in investment heavy infrastructure projects. Those partners won’t want to go to the trouble of putting in, say, new pipelines if they fear that Russia will cut the flow in the event of any dispute.”
Hope those corrections turn nonsense into at least a semi-comprehensible comment.
The flue pipe was fitted jury rigged a month or so ago. When connecting it up properly we took the opportunity of examining its interior to see how it was doing.
After only three or four weeks burning the interior of the pipe was black with tar. Obviously I’m going to have to season the wood better. SWMBO comments that if I spent less time fussing about things I can do nothing about and more time on things I can do something about the world would be a better place.
Theoretically this means I ought to be outside right now felling and storing wood for the year after next so it’s seasoned properly. In practical terms it means the flue will probably have to be swept more often.
EO,
China has already decided not to assist Russia in building out new pipelines to China. It is up to Russia to do so if she wants to sell more gas to China. In the meantime, China is getting the gas it needs at a cut rate price. China’s reasoning is not clear to me beyond taking advantage of Russia’s predicament.
Have you tried any of those creosote burning logs? They don’t remove the creosote, but they dry up and loosen it so it’s easier to remove. Flue cleaning really should be part of a regular maintenance program.
“European gas prices have settled at about twice their 10-year average,…”
HA HA HA HA HA take that German middle class!
“That helped keep a range of energy-intensive factories pumping out aluminum, steel, fertilizer, or ceramics in Germany and elsewhere….”
“Jacob Mandel, a gas analyst at Aurora Energy Research. “There’s a risk that some industry is gone forever,” he says.”
Euro elite in Brussels are winning! Ha ha ha ha. Special congratulation to NATO for destroying Libya and thus preventing development of offshore gas and subsequent pipeline to Italy. Don’t forget to thank the ECB and City of London experts.
On a bright neocon-euro elite note Russia is down 87% on troops and just ONE MORE push by Ukraine and it’s all over for those nasty bastards to the East. That or a false flag to get the 81 million ballot guy to send the US Army into the fight. I wonder if anyone here has caught on yet to getting played worse than the investors and executives at Theranos.
Russia never expected Germany to shut down the Nord Stream pipelines and Europe …;
Well, well, well. No one over here would pretend we weren’t warned, for quite possibly a decade? Even longer? Two, considering North Stream 1? And we obviously overestimated our abilities, considering other projects (South Stream? …) over the decades?
But seriously: Did you expect Putin to start this war? I missed your arguments on that?
During the long, long run up to the war, I admittedly feared more and more we would be squeezed in between this US-Russia struggle, which I felt it ultimately is. …
******************
I highly recommend an article by Anatol Lieven, who over the years has become one of my favorites. Thus, I may well follow his suggestion and read Serhii Plokhy’s The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History (W.W. Norton May 2023).
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky-biden-washington/
Book talk:
https://quincyinst.org/event/book-talk-the-russo-ukrainian-war-and-the-return-of-history/
Leander –
Plokhy’s book is well worth your while. I read it recently, based on a review by Kirkus: https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/serhii-plokhy/the-russo-ukrainian-war/
The hardcover is a bit pricey, but it’s also available in paperback, audio & kindle. At least for the English editions, I’m assuming the same for German-language editions.
Yes, curiously enough, German translations are already available. That’s fast. Personally, I stopped reading translations several decades ago. Didn’t really enjoy the ones I did myself, either. …
From the above. Lieven:-
“If the Biden administration and Washington establishment could recognize the implications of this, they could craft a new narrative that would allow them, and the Ukrainian government, to present a compromise peace as a Ukrainian victory (albeit a qualified one) and a Russian defeat — though not a complete one.”
“Craft a new narrative”. I’ve seen calls elsewhere for this “new narrative”. Urgently needed for the forthcoming Presidential elections. Somehow the shattering defeat has to be talked up as a “qualified victory.”
Probably will be. Ten thousand scribblers will be doing their best, Lieven in among them.. Doesn’t alter the fact that the Russians will absorb as much of the old Ukraine as they choose and neutralise the rest. And will then return to the unfinished business of their 2021 European security demands.
The scribblers know that. Like Lieven, they’ll now be desperately trying to find enough lipstick for the pig. And like Scholz and Biden, they’ll be using the debacle to steer us into Cold War II. Fine for the defence contractors. Not so fine for a Europe that’s going down fast and could well go down faster.
Anyone with the sense of a bunny rabbit could see that this was how things were going to go as soon as the guns started thundering across the Line of Contact. Poke the Bear hard enough and with the “escalatory dominance” the Russians have in spades in this region, an escalatory dominance that Obama pointed out way back, the Bear comes out fighting. Scholz and Macron should have stuck to Minsk 2, the chumps.
Too late now. They gambled. They lost. Live with it.
So much for the face saving narrative Lieven’s helping to “craft”. But there’s another narrative being crafted right now. That Germany is the piggy in the middle in all this. The hapless victim. Led innocently down the path to economic subservience by the cunning Washington neocons. We’ll see a lot of that narrative as the Germans wake up to the extent of the fiasco.
Complete rubbish. The German politicians were more eager to get at Russia than those in Washington. They were leveraging the military and financial power of the United States to do just that. It’s backfired. Time the Germans faced that fact squarely and put their cherished victim narrative aside.
Note. European natural gas prices.
“Soaring natural gas prices in Europe were another major factor that caused the euro to fall below parity with the dollar over the summer. In particular, the wholesale gas benchmark in Europe (Dutch TTF) is currently eight times higher than US domestic natural gas prices, giving European companies and consumers a big competitive disadvantage compared to those in the US.”
https://www.reuters.com/plus/could-the-euro-collapse
Reasons:-
One of the very few side benefits of the SMO was that the Third Energy Package, that towering monument of EU regulatory ingenuity, no longer got discussed much. Good. No doubt conscientious officials are still grinding away at it. Probably some of the more gifted of them even comprehend it. Enough to say now that that Third Energy Package made what you’d think would be the comparatively simple process of transporting gas from Russia to Germany via NS 1 and 2 into a pretty fair imitation of mud wrestling.
That was where we started from when Scholz and UvdL embarked on the difficult project of cutting the Russians’ throats without cutting their own in the process. There was, as they say of a difficult marriage, a back history. But an additional factor was the insistence of the EU on buying spot.
The producers don’t like spot. They want to see a safe return on their investment over the life of the project so go for long term contracts. But over the last few years spot was advantageous. The lowering of demand due to Covid meant that prices stayed down. Now demand’s up many are wishing they’d gone for long term.
Hungary did, just before the SMO. I think Orban, who is of necessity privy to EU Heads of State meetings, saw the SMO coming and took steps to safeguard his country’s energy supplies. Whether that’s so or not he entered into long term contracts – in effect hedging against fluctuations in the market – and is now sitting pretty, always provided the EU doesn’t manage to dream up transit difficulties. Germany was already safeguarded with its long term NS1 contract.
And, right down the other end of the scale, so was I.
I use propane gas. I’d expected to have to pay a fortune for the next delivery recently. To my surprise it wasn’t that different from the old price. My supplier’s supplier had almost certainly gone for long term or had used some other means of hedging. Brussels hadn’t. Even had things remained peaceful Europe would still be having to pay more now for its natural gas than it should. The EU was scarcely flink, wie die Windhunde, and had screwed up its purchasing for Europe.
So it’d take a real expert to determine how much of Europe’s current gas price difficulties derive from the fun and games with the Third Energy Package, how much from the short-sighted insistence on spot, how much on recovering world demand, and how much directly from the effects of the sanctions war, including in those effects the switch from piped to the more expensive LNG.
The exact proportions, though, don’t matter. What’s clear is that a least some of the current difficulties derive from past EU mistakes. So Scholz’s attempt to blame it on the Russians being awkward is also an attempt to cover for that past failure.
History now. To coin a phrase, we are where we are. But it’s good to get the history right. And bringing the history up to the present day, what is so apparent from that history is what I’ve previously termed the sense of ineffable entitlement that comes off from Berlin and Brussels. So dangerous, now, that ineffable entitlement.
They’d declared economic war was on Russia, with the explicit aim of wrecking the Russian economy. They’d grabbed all the Russian assets they could get hold of. There were speeches from EU officials that plainly said the Russians were to be regarded as Untermenschen. They were providing bullets and shells to kill Russian soldiers. Captured Russian tanks were put proudly on display, one outside the Russian Embassy in Berlin. And so on.
And on. The list is endless. I suppose the main difference between the last Drang Nach Osten effort and this one was that the Germans had a functioning Wehrmacht then. This time round they had to make do with the Ukrainians for manpower and the Americans for muscle. Apart from that about the only thing they didn’t do to the Russians to give them a hard time was to publish recipes on how to cook them.
And after all that these entitled lunatics are throwing their toys out of the pram because the Russians might not be dutifully sending them energy supplies and raw materials as before. Poor Barbarossa Scholz. He only tried to destroy their country every way he could think of and now the Russians are being beastly to him. If it weren’t for the murderous casualty rate that has resulted from this crazy venture the whole affair thing would be a show stopper as a comedy act.
And as an encore the entitled lunatics are going headlong for Cold War II, Scholz, zäh, wie Leder, hart, wie Kruppstahl, and shoulder to shoulder with Stoltenberg, heroically urging us on.
Forgetting that we are still heavily dependent on Russian hydrocarbons and raw materials. Could stop being a comedy act quite sharply, if the Russians decide they’ve had enough of the clown show and simply walk away.
Would you please close the html tag after your quote? And sorry, I shut up for a while again.
TTG
Sargent Schultz here, just passing this email below along. I don’t take it overly seriously as just 2 or 3 days ago GFs was saying this definitely wouldn’t happen. So I checked Stratfor who let me read two articles and they said it could happen. FYI.
—————————
Hezbollah Mobilizes.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Hezbollah is mobilizing its forces in the south Litani area in preparation for a full-scale war with Israel. That the group will not voluntarily evacuate the border area has made conflict inevitable. The mood in Lebanon is sullen; nobody wants war, and the images coming out of Gaza have made Lebanese residents fear what could happen to them.
The mobilization does not mean war will break out tomorrow. But Hezbollah wants to be ready.
What I am seeing is nationalist backlash. People who study these electoral matters estimate that if an election were held in Germany next week the results would be:
Union: 31 percent.
AfD: 25 percent.
Grune (Greens): 12 percent.
SPD: 10 percent.
FDP: 3 percent.
Left: 3 percent.
(BSW: 7 percent.)
This is remarkable. AfD is so conservative, so far right, and so nationalistic, that some of its leaders have been investigated by police as being crypto-NAZI. There have been noises made about banning it. Yet it has recently made remarkable gains in such places as Hesse (Frankfurt region) and Bavaria, both rich, sophisticated, economic powerhouses, as well as in the former GDR or east (Dresden region, etc.), the poorer but quite sizable rust-belt part of Germany where there are demonstrations against the government, and growing hostility to its basic internationalist ideas, in part because of social dislocation and continuing economic stress resulting from sudden jolting changes due to reunification.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, the SPD, is in a coalition with the FDP and the Greens.
The SPD seems to have lost some 80 percent of its voters. The FDP is now too small to remain in parliament. Scholz and his party look like they ought to be ousted in the near future. Everything is changing. Europe is becoming unrecognizable. The Green Deal looks as if it is done, which means Net Zero has failed, and the whole issues of climate protection and species protection could be dead. I think that what one can expect now as the immigration crisis and the economic disaster worsen –with industry simply picking up and leaving–is that Germany is going to go so far right it is outa sight. You could see this coming more than a year ago. Then, as abrupt, irreversible climate change roars on with each passing year until a kind of international panic sets in all over the world, Europe (and elsewhere) will become militarized and intensely nationalistic. The rules of asylum will go out the window. There will be round-ups, killings and deportations. Europe (and elsewhere) will be ruled by ruthless, nationalistic, racially based parties led by Strong Men, dictators, call them what you will. I don’t think democracy can endure what is coming. I give it less than ten years. By then the whole mid-earth band –say latitudes 20 degrees north to 20 south–will have become basically unlivable.
That is really interesting. And likely not far off the mark. It’s reasonable to think that the scenarios you outline would lead to wars. Previous to embarking on WW2 Germany developed extensive systems for synthetic production of fuels which were chemically equivalent to petroleum or fossil based fuels. An ominous for parallel in that German fuel provisions going forward are today also insufficient to foreseen needs. And they could go nuclear again quickly. It will be really tragic and it was unnecessary in the extreme.
Tidewater – addon to reply of 5:33 am –
I might have added that I think the whole thing is engineered again just as WW2 was engineered at the conclusion of WW1 in the Versailles treaty and subsequent loans to Germany and the USSR. This time most of the engineering was done by the British with their puppet US who they allow to believe is independent. The idea is that the Brits eventually want to control all of Russia’s resources. So once again with Brexit they divided Europe against itself and now Poland and Germany are at odds. Pauperization of Germany – well underway – is intended to drive them far far right again and into a battering ram against the immensely weakened Russia which is a shadow of the USSR. Ukraine has been turned into a battleground on the way to being a wasteland and is being hollowed out and depopulated. All the while for the past two decades the general mentality of the US has been reduced to the point of near barbarism and civil war, so participating in expeditions overseas is attractive. Britain or the people running the place couldn’t care less how many millions die, they’re looking at whose names will be on the contracts and ownership papers at the end of the day. Germany, Poland, US and Ukraine are their battering rams.
Have to disagree with you there, F&L, I’m afraid. HMG simply doesn’t have that sort of clout.
Also disagree with you on the US. OK, you live there and I don’t. But I know a fair few Americans and have American relatives to stay now and again. “near barbarism?” Absolutely not.
The Western governments we’re variously lumbered with are hyper-barbarians. Never seen anything like it. That’s true for your lot and for mine.
Many of us Westerners fall easy prey to war hysteria as well, as long as it’s proxy and we don’t have to get out of our armchairs. And the straight Russophobia one saw in Europe, in Germany in particular amongst friends and contacts, was something else.
So we’re not all little angels, not by a long chalk. But I am convinced that if the peoples of Europe knew what their politicians had been getting up to they’d have ’em out of office in a flash.
EO,
What’s all this about deporting illegal migrants in the middle of Africa.
Is there a deportation camp waiting for them? Compulsory labor?
Because I guess once they’re deported to Africa, HMG will no longer be responsible for their welfare.
Brilliant, really. So sweet and in the spotlight.
Darkness conquers Europe. I’m amazed that cautious Albion is giving the runaround. Don’t worry, France isn’t far behind, or ahead given what’s happening in Calais for several years now, where France is disgracing itself in the service of the Brits.
As far as I can make out, d74, pretending to send boat people to Rwanda is a dodge the Conservatives are hoping will see them through the next UK election. I doubt it’ll work but I suppose they thought it was worth a try,
Essential background on the subject is that “Wir schaffen das” isn’t working very well over here.
As for other parts of Europe, the Poles are attempting to stem the influx of illegal immigrants – the ones Lukashenko is thoughtfully sending their way – with barbed wire and stun grenades. The Polish motto is “Wir wollen das überhaupt nicht schaffen!”
It is possible, however, that Tusk and his Brussels pals will eventually bring the recalcitrant Poles to heel.
EO
I’d respect you (choice A_____, choice B______, choice C_______)if you didn’t stick up for your own buggers. The reason the Virgin Mary is a virgin even though common sense says it unlikely is not what most people think it is.
A) even less
B) even more
C) not saying
F&L,
Of course I stick up for my own. That doesn’t have to extend to HMG. The only reason the losers in Westminster aren’t as bad as the losers in Berlin/Brussels is that they can’t do as much damage.
Not that they don’t have a damned good try.
Tidewater,
“There will be round-ups, killings and deportations. Europe (and elsewhere) will be ruled by ruthless, nationalistic, ….”
The people created these conditions – i.e. the ones in power NOW better crack down now! because what they’ve been predicting as a means of keeping power might happen! My what a wonderful way to be non-autocratic, ruthless, and especially maintain your non-nationalistic selves; and your power.
As Lee Kuan Yew put it succinctly decades ago – in a multi-cultural society one does not vote his interests, but his race and religion. Thank you elites of Europe for transforming your societies. This is what liberal globalist sjw victory looks like.
Nonsense, Fred. Pure bunk. This is what Machiavelli looks like in the 21st century. Reformers and oppositions to power have always existed. Especially in the places where rule by the powerful is extreme and wealth distribution lopsided. And guess what? The SJWs look.as inane as they do because that’s the way Rupert Murdoch and the billionaires at the NY Times and Washington Post want them to look. You’re just a right wing loony tune – in other words exactly the way wealth and power wants you to be. You actually cheer on the Israelis. You’re gone, but hardly alone.
People are astoundingly easy to decieve and bamboozle, that’s no cause to hate them. It’s reason for more sugar and caramel in the Mars bars though. And lots of ads for “ChatGpt” and “Bard” so that when our grandkids sit down at the console decades from now they don’t expect lots of hits under a search text entry form, or various sources – no, look, it’s AI and it always gives the right answer! Unless you’re one of the McCoys down the block who only use “Bard.”
“We don’t use no Chat Gpt in our house, no way!” Said Sarah McCoy to her husband Stuart Finkelstein McCoy.
Jennifer Sue Hatfield chuckled to Minnie Mae Hatfield – “those McCoys don’t know anything, Minnie, they are real dopes.”
F&L,
The Intellectual of the Intertubes.
Maybe the Palestinian supporters and Marxism proponents have been “bamboozled” by lies and propaganda.
I like how such people readily believe all manner of conspiracy theories that paint the US as the bad guy and how the US government is capable of highly complex conspiracies with water tight op sec, etc., but then the same people claim the US government is incompetent and can’t do anything right. Same people who don’t believe “the official narrative” from US investigations of incidents like JFK’s assassination and 9/11, yet eagerly soak up and uncritically repeat Hamas’ official narrative.
It’s almost as if some people are just giant self-loathing, schizophrenic, whiners expressing their base emotions as if they are rational facts; which would also explain why they are bitter and jealous for not having as much as successful people.
It’s hard to make money and influential friends when you are profoundly confused and perpetually negative about everything in your own society, but at the same time, like a brat, enjoy its benefits – and believe yourself to be as virtuous as the second coming of Christ.
Fred,
One bright spot in all this. There was a good turnout by the Maghrebi water tribe for the Lampedusa Challenge. Over a hundred thousand. And you shoulda seen the boats!
The MC opens with the observation that 1% of Gaza has been killed. Proportionately that would be 3.35 million Americans. Connecticut would cover that, Arkansas is only 3 million. Lloyd Austin is traveling there to tell them to become more targeted by New Years. “You may be interested in this invention – we call it a gun sight. We recommend purchasing several million and they come with instructions. Using people for target practice, by the way, is no longer fashionable, but neither is modesty.”
John Mearsheimer – Israel is choosing ‘apartheid’ or ‘ethnic cleansing’ | The Bottom Line
https://youtu.be/rc0mws9NT-0
F&L,
Where are they burying all the bodies? Maybe they are storing them in all those refrigerated trailers used in the great Covid die off that killed all the homeless?
Fred,
I have high regards for you. It’s quite disappointing to see you’re making joke about the genocide of the Palestinian people. Are you implying that it’s not happening right now?
TonyL,
It wasn’t my intention at all, not in the least. Sorry if it came off that way. My intention was to ridicule the US position as presented by the liars in the press. They claim that first Sullivan and now Austin are over in Israel and the greater ME on a mission to dial back the magnitude of Israel’s horrific ongoing atrocity. I think that’s a complete misrepresentation and that they are over there to expand operations, not diminish them as seen in the announcements concerning a “coalition” being assembled to combat Al Ansar in Yemen, which points directly at Iran since they are described as supporting them. I really didn’t do a very good job of it though.
I think the actions in Gaza are reprehensible in the extreme and that the Israeli government is either criminally insane, or probably more accurately, devotedly attached to and scrupulously practicing an ideology as depraved as the racist ideology of the third Reich.
F&L,
My remark above was addressed to Fred, not to you. He was joking comparing the Palestians deaths to “Covid die off that killed all the homeless.”
I totally agreed with all your comments about Israel,
at the moment committing genocide.
TonyL
The smirk is gone.The tunnels are aquariums.White mans numbers add up to nothing,and so the river flows.Spewing.
TonyL,
The source for all the claims of 10,000+ dead is trustworthy?
“At least 17,487 Palestinians have been killed since then, according to Gaza Health Ministry figures…”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-many-palestinians-have-died-gaza-war-how-will-counting-continue-2023-12-06/
Where did they bury them all? It should be rather easy to VERIFY what they are claiming. Too bad about that “only” 1,200 on October 7th. Why did they die? Why were a few hundred kidnapped? Let’s not ask the people currently getting the s&&& beaten out of them, their leaders in Qatar, nor anyone in the UN, European based NGOs, or anyone else who funded that ‘government’ for years.
Not my war, and I’m damn tired of getting fed horse-shit from the mid-East by all sides to push some one’s agenda. Too bad your feelings got hurt.
On a bright note Ukraine is all over, except for a few more months of needless killing. Yemen, Congo, Niger? well 2024 is right around the corner. I’m sure the usual suspects will pump the dying Western media, including lots of government funded ones, with more narratives we should care about.
Fred,
So Russia is not running out of ammo any day now and its officers aren’t shooting all the enlisted men for drunken sport?
Germans are A-OK paying double the cost of fuel?
We remain committed to our friends in Qatar?
I’m tired of all the horse shit too, regardless of where it’s coming from. Time to muck the stalls.
Yes, once we put wishful thinking aside, it should, indeed, be rather easy to VERIFY what they are claiming. I recommend starting with the good old sniff test. If it smells like shit, is brown and comes in piles…..
Fred,
“Not my war, and I’m damn tired of getting fed horse-shit from the mid-East by all sides to push some one’s agenda. Too bad your feelings got hurt.”
I can’t argue with you about propaganda. We have been fed horse-shit daily on network news about Ulraine war in the US, too.
My feeling is not hurt. It’s just that I do believe the Palestinian death count is more than 15,000, given Israel indiscriminate bombing of Gaza. It’s a genocide. Whatever Hamas did does not justify the killing of Palestine civillians on that scale.
“Where did they bury them all?”
If you have ever been in a war zone similar to Gaza, you’d know the answer. Under the rubbles.
If you have ever stepped over the corpses in a highway of deaths, in your journey out of a war zone, you’d know the answer to that.
LOL
No doubt the Israelis, genocidal savages that they are, are turning the bodies into useful products, like lampshades, sofa covers and, yes, even meat for the dining room table.
Because if Hamas states their casualties, you can take that figure to the bank!
Their achievement is that they managed to procure gas.
The price is a different matter.
Last winter was very mild and government subsidies were some 700 billion euros. Despite those, households and businesses were paying a higher price for gas.
Add to that all the additional aid the EU is giving Ukraine.
I’m not good at finances but does that mean that the war in Ukraine is costing Europe a trillion per year ?
Ah, the Cabals! The Conspiracies! But the worst is all the fiction. In many ways, what is at play in world politics is all about economics and market forces and anyone who claims to know all the answers is seriously deluded. Currently there are some Republicans playing politics with support for Ukraine and Israel. I expect that soon after New Years, they will realize that many of them will face an election and being far out on a limb is an uncomfortable place.
It may seem that democracy and freedom is being challenged by some, but history should show you the fallacy of that and the mistakes of the 1930’s provide a cautionary tale.
Lars,
Have you chipped in and bought Ukraine war bonds with your own money yet?
A Don my hat
Did you know that Sidon is a useful word and has different connotations
Guy in the white home asks Frank how to get to Tyre.
The aide de champ replies ….sidon
You might want to be checked for brain damage mcohen. I do joke around a bit but I’m serious and I’m not saying so out of political disagreement or ideological differences between us which are admittedly severe. You’re showing symptoms. Or else you have serious disabilities, in which case please accept my apologies.
Its the shrooms uncle.They speak to me.
Isaiah 23:2
2Be still, O inhabitants of the coast, O merchants of Sidon, your messengers crossed over the sea
Much as it pains me to report this, it sure can’t be welcome news to the Russian leaders. There’s a nice little map animation at the link for anyone needing a geography refresher.
Yes, Americans are dumb hillbillies who pick banjo and fiddle. But they are dumb hillbillies who build Boeing stealth bombers and nuclear capable stealth F-35 fighters, unless I’m missing something. I devoutly wish they would stick to the banjos and fiddles – what to do? Maybe it’s a faction that dislikes banjo picking so strongly that it moved far away from the Cumberland gap into the Pacific Northwest. I’ve encountered the type – a guy who I used to eat lunch with years ago. Come to think of it, he was ex air force. I never liked him very much but he was highly educated and quite clever.
——————————————-
https://t.me/Belarus_VPO/54215
NATO intends to follow the Baltic to shackle the Northern Fleet.
Today, December 18, Suomi Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen will sign a defense agreement between Finland and the United States. This document, in addition to allowing the presence of American troops on Finnish territory, also provides for the use of Finland’s military infrastructure for US needs, including 15 military facilities in the country. In addition, the agreement implies the deployment of American troops in Finland in the event of a “danger” of conflict with Russia.
Häkkänen “does not exclude” the possibility of placing US nuclear weapons on Finnish territory, anticipating the lifting of restrictions established by Finnish legislation. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Finland will soon be able to surpass, although not by much, Poland’s temporary performance in resolving the issue of deploying American tactical nuclear weapons.
Thus, the air force base in Lapland, near the city of Rovaniemi, will become one of the key objects of the agreement. It is he who, in the event of a conflict with Russia, will take on the role of the operational center of NATO forces.
Helsinki has already set a course for its modernization in order to prepare for the deployment of 64 F-35 multirole fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Completion date: 2026.
In turn, military logistics will rely on a railway line connecting the port city of Tornio, bordering Sweden, and Kemijärvi, a city an hour’s drive from the Russian border and seven hours from Murmansk, where the main base of the Russian Northern Fleet is located.
As we see, the Pentagon, in preparation for the outbreak of an armed conflict against the Russian Federation, is seeking to shackle its Northern Fleet and long-range strategic aviation.
Since this post is about economic results, I am posting this here:
Who really won WW2?
Take a look at this article:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4366073-fetterman-says-hell-work-to-block-absolutely-outrageous-us-steel-sale/
I am from Pittsburgh (actually, its near suburb Williamsburg).
Andrew Carnegie, the founder of U.S. Steel, was a hero there.
While there are many today, even commenting here, who loudly condemn and criticize “the corporations”,
in my opinion old-fashioned corporations, like U.S. Steel, were a necessary factor in literally building America.
What is the alternative?
Such Sahara Africa?
The old Soviet Union?
In my opinion, criticizing “the corporations” is just a stratagem for diverting attention from the real cause of today’s problems.
Back to Andrew Carnegie.
He used his fortune to do much good,
from founding Carnegie Institute of Technology
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnegie_Mellon_University
(note also the philanthropy of Andrew Mellon)
to funding libraries all across America, the Carnegie libraries.
In contrast, today’s zillionaires direct so much of their philanthropy to, yuk, medical research.
Shows their conception of what matters.
Keith Harbaugh,
Carnegie bought out rivals, supply sources and shipping (rails) to build his empire. To his credit, he realized that all that means nothing if it did not benefit his fellow man. Thus his philanthropy. I remember a tour of various building on CMU. One that Carnegie built was designed to be converted into a factory just in case the educational institution didn’t pan out. There were no interior steps, just ramps.
Oops, that should have been Wilkinsburg, not Williamsburg.
When I tried to draft this correction,
autocorrect software changed what I typed, Wilkinsburg, to Williamsburg, until I corrected it.
Gotta watch things like a hawk.