UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 9:51:51 AM EST · Mark Sumner
As the update was being written this morning, news started to roll in that there is, in fact, fighting near Kyselivka (see map below) with Ukrainian forces reportedly pressing along the highway and Russian fighters concerned that they could be rapidly cut off and isolated.
Also, Kirill Stremousov, a strident anti-vax quisling who was appointed by Russia as the deputy governor of their occupation government in Kherson, has died. The official statement indicates that he died in a car crash. Take from this what you will.
Finally, a report from Russian Telegram sources that some Russian forces in Kherson Oblast have received an order to withdraw from the right bank, some have already crossed, and some have been told to hold the front until the rest can complete the escape. Some forces are also reported to be out of communication, which may reflect earlier reports that no one is in communication with Russian forces in Snihurivka. As with all claims that sound this good, keep a salt shaker handy — especially as we’re still not seeing named locations as liberated.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 10:01:01 AM EST · Mark Sumner
Ask for specific locations, and ye shall receive: Ukraine has reportedly liberated Kalynivske, a small town along the Inhulets River just a few kilometers north of Snihurivka. This leaves just the village of Bobrovyi Kut between Ukrainian forces pressing in from the north, and those pushing west into Snihurivka. Be prepared to hear the name of that village again soon.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 10:38:54 AM EST · Mark Sumner
This appears to be official. It is now appearing on Russian state media. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has ordered a withdrawal of all Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region. Still, there is active fighting going on. Wait for word of actual cities and towns being liberated. But get ready. Keep your fingers crossed. Be prepared for good news.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 10:42:02 AM EST · Mark Sumner
The names of towns Russia has reportedly abandoned are now pouring in faster than I can record them. Expect a map update in a couple of hours when I can see if Ukraine has move in to liberate these locations. Holy ****.
Comment: I’ve seen the video of Shoigu giving the order… Haul Ass! The next few days should be quite interesting. I can hear MSG Al Rivers’ voice booming out across the field, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”
Kyiv is rightly cautious about Shoigu’s TV announcement.
“A senior Ukrainian official has expressed skepticism that Russian forces will leave the west bank of the Kherson region altogether. Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, tweeted: “Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. Ukraine is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.”
I do not know who MSG Al Rivers was referring to as a homosexual, but as a former trucker, I know what “Good Buddy” means.
Lars,
Master Sergeant Albert H. Rivers served three tours as a one zero in CCC, MACV-SOG and one more in the 46th SF Company in Thailand before coming to RPI as an ROTC trainer. It wasn’t his choice, but he was a Godsend to us cadets. We learned what it took to be a soldier. That quote was something he used among the recon teams of CCC before he used it among us cadets. It clearly didn’t have the same meaning to him as it does among you truckers.
I am sure you are right about that. I just think it is funny when I see or hear what I learned was an insult 35 years ago.
But you are bring up something that we are now learning in Ukraine. Having experienced NCOs is very important, if you are going to win battles. The Russians obviously don’t have it.
I am sure Rivers was a fine fellow. SOGmen were from the Iliad. “If I stay here to fight before the city of the Trojans my return home is gone, but my glory will live forever.”
pl,
A lot of our ROTC detachments were graced with soldiers of this caliber around that time. Probably one of the wisest moves made by TRADOC. He came to RPI in the summer of 1973. I went through jump school that same summer because of a deal arranged by our ROTC detachment CSM and the Airborne School CSM. This was before I signed any enlistment papers for ROTC. I guess that was how the Army worked back then. I spent two years with Al Rivers and had the honor of leading the Cadet Ranger Company as we passed in review at his retirement parade. He was so respected that the Air Force and Navy ROTC detachments also stood in parade in his honor.
Is it more precise to say they are abandoning the upper left hand side of Kherson but holding onto the portions on the eastern bank? Unknown?
If you look at the photos it does not seem that there is a town on the left bank.
Thanks. I checked some UK and Fr newscasts and they say there is a signing part of the city which remains where the Russians are retreating to. When the Russians say “right bank” they mean what is on your right if you are traveling downstream on the river. It doesn’t correspond to a right or left side as seen looking down from above on a map.
It will be interesting to speculate on how much of this withdrawal may have been agreed to in the discussions between Sullivan and Patrushev & Ushakov which were discussed in WAPO and WSJ.
F&L,
I seriously doubt anything Sullivan said shaped Russian battleground decisions. But he probably made it clear that we will continue to supply Ukraine with military equipment.
No – how about if he threatened advancing into Southern Ukraine with 90,000 troops – 40k US, 30k Pol, 20k Romania? That’s what was hinted at by Col Macgregor in a YouTube video interview by Napolitano the db yesterday. With the failure of the Red wave to materialize today in our midterms it’s conceivable. I mean the withdrawal didn’t just happen on any old day — Sullivan was talking and the midterms went Biden’s way and there are said tobe 90k troops good to go.
F&L,
I think MacGregor is grasping at straws to explain Russia’s incompetence and failures. We’ve been cautious about supplying Ukraine with what they need. Do you think we’d throw our troops into battle before we even agree to give Ukraine the tanks and ATACMS she needs?
Re MacGregor; is he finding excuses for his misjudgment (?) since March or does he really have information of 90M allied troops waiting to pour into southern Ukraine? Does Poland, Romania, and America defending Ukraine, on Ukrainian soil, commit the rest of NATO to war w/Russia. I think not.
Thanks for clarifying the river bank ordinates. I reverted to the west bank and east bank myself.
Does this mean that the Russian military has given up possession of the western side of the Dnieper?
I will try again. The left and right bank are what you see when you look downstream.
The withdrawal should be under MASSIVE INDIRECT FIRE! Pour it on Ukraine so they never come back! Every Russian that gets across the Dnipro is going to live to shoot again. Hammer them!
505,
That’s why I can’t figure out why Shoigu made the public announcement. Like ringing the dinner bell for the hounds.
Mark Logan,
My guess is that they wanted to make it look like a deliberate decision of the Russian MOD rather than something forced upon them by Ukrainian action.
TTG,
Could be, but wouldn’t thousands of Russian soldiers being slaughtered or surrendering en-mass on the banks of the river be a far greater embarrassment? I suppose deeming anything as too stupid for a Russian general to do anymore has become a poor assumption.
I suppose the thing to watch is whether or not the Ukrainians pelt the hell out of the next pontoon bridge or just let it be. A deal may have been struck between the generals: “If you leave the right bank we’ll let it happen.” This would explain a Russian public announcement of retreat.
As kid’s we say let’s get out while the gettins good. So yes, it looks better to say “we left” than the Ukrainians forced us out.
That leaves the Eastern side of the river. Any predictions there?
2s.probably svatove to soledar line in East .kherson us the line in the south
Ukraine is wise to be skeptical and to look for a trap. But I suspect it is a real withdrawal. Putin has finally realized that to stay on the right (west) bank would be insane. But he himself is not heard from, leaving it up to Surovikin and Shoigu to take the heat if any hard core object and the retreat goes badly. The video of the Surovikin/Shoigu meet and briefing appeared very scripted, definitely a full Moscollywood production.
How soon will we hear ‘what a wonderful & humane move it is on the part of the Russians’?
Hard to withdraw under fire, especially across a river as wide as the Dnipro. The ferries will be a deliberate mix of Russian troops and Ukrainian civilians to preclude artillery and air strikes. Or many of the troops will perhaps be in civilian trucks and buses. Will Ukraine let them leave? Maybe the smart move would be to cut off and surround as many as they can before they can reach the river crossings. Induce a mass surrender? Negotiate to swap them for the kidnapped Ukrainian children?