And the beat rolls on … Pat Lang


Things are going from good to excellent for the R+6:

1.  East Gouta and Douma town are completely in government hands.  OPCW is searching around in Douma for some sign of a chemical attack on 4 April.  They must be getting desperate.  They are under tremendous pressure from FUKUS to produce such evidence.  Almost anything will do.  Perhaps the UKUS IO could switch production to a sound stage in England (Denison Barracks maybe?)  for the next occasion when the jihadis and FSA unicorns need a FUKUS missile attack to bail them out.

2.  The Damascus South pocket is being dissected by the Republican Guard, 9th Armored Division, 4th Armored Division and various Palestinian units.   The brave rebels are evidently not willing to DIP and as usual are surrendering to R+6 and then to be green bused to the Homs Desert Pocket (south of a line Palmyra-Deir al-Zor) or to Idlib to await the final butchery. I suppose that is cleverer than just Killing them in Place (KIP).  IMO (oft stated) jihadis should not be accorded the protections given to prisoners of war, but raisons d'etat clearly govern. 



3.  In the Qalamoun East mountains north of  Damascus, the rebels surrendered rather quickly to R+6 and are busy making their peace with the government through the mediation of Russian Military Police.  As stated in the piece cited below these former rebels handed over 38 main battle tanks (MBT), some ZSU-23-4 (Shilka) and assorted other armored fighting vehicles almost all of which are "runners" that will quickly be employed in coming operations.  The Shilka is a murderously effective weapon against infantry, but a hit from an MBT will turn it into a torch.

4.  The situation in the Damascus South Pocket will so quickly be resolved in the government's favor that the fabled Tiger Forces armored task force is being transported north to spearhead a clean up of the Rastan Pocket north of Homs City.  Th is astride the M-5 highway leading to the southern boundary of Idlib Province.

5.  IMO, all this will lead to a maximum effort in the not far distant future in which the R-6 recovers Idlib Province for the government with a main effort from the south and a supporting attack from the west involving the Syrian Marines with objective Jisr al-Shugour.  IMO the Turkish Army outposts in Idlib Province will simply be bypassed and ignored.  IMO the operation's objective will be to occupy a line from Aleppo City west to the Turkish border in Hatay Province.

What the Israelis might do in the far SW of Syria is unclear.  Russian deliveries of export models of the S-300 SAM system are nearing.  What will Israel do about that?  pl

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