"I know there are a lot of under 30’s who still live with their parents and play video games all day – products of the entitled generation – but many men find their worth and value in working and providing for their wives and children. I fear this pandemic shutdown – which has gone on too long, governor – is damaging the psyche of the average person. The government has some people in fears that if they pick up a gas nozzle or touch the door to a Circle K that COVID-19 will have them dead by evening.
Get past the fear and look at the statistics.
The death rate in Stanislaus County so far is 0.000025 percent. You get that by taking the 15 who have died divided by the population of 550,660.
As of Monday, 2,172 have been listed as COVID-19 deaths in California. Divide that number by 39,780,000 and you have a death rate of 0.0000546 percent. So Stanislaus County’s death rate is about half of the state’s. And so far all who have died have had compromised health or were elderly. If you took LA County out of the picture, California would have a death rate of 0.00002371 percent!
California is the most populous state yet our COVID-19 deaths account for 3.1 percent of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths. New York, by contrast, was at 27.5 percent. Is our death rate relatively low because of herd immunity or social distancing? I don’t know but I suspect it’s been traveling back and forth between California and China for some many months now.
So as you can see, the problem is in the highly densely populated areas, not in rural areas like Stanislaus County. So why are we still in lockdown?" The Ceres Courier
————–
Ceres is a little town out in the central valley of California. To say that it is in America's agricultural heartland would not be an exaggeration. Victor Davis Hanson (the philosopher historian) and Gavin Nunes (the congressman) are from places like that in the same valley. The town is about 40% Hispanic and the rest is White with a smattering of "others?"
Yes! Why is Ceres still locked down? pl
https://www.cerescourier.com/opinion/editorial/it-all-seems-ruse-socialism/
That is the same reason Governor Whitmer of Michigan is keeping the Upper Peninsula closed. We went from “slow the spread” to “bend the curve” to “find a cure”. This is the ‘The Great Repression’ as someone called it.
“This will accelerate the quest for universal basic income.” Which is just a transfer payment, like social security without the obligation to work and pay into a ‘system’, which we have been told for decades will run out of money. The author of the piece you linked to is spot on.
fred
BTW the death rate in Alexandria, Virginia is .1 % of those identified as infected. (30 dead divided by 30000 known infected times 100) The Hispanic immigrant community is a locus of infection because of their residence in garden apartment blocs clumped together in the neighborhood they call “Chirilaqua.” Why is the city locked down? This is supposed to be the heart of a hotspot.
I had an interesting experience this past Thursday. I had had an appointment with my pulmonologist which had to be changed to a phone appointment due to the beervirus panic. I am 73 and I have several conditions that are associated with death from the beervirus. During the phone convo I asked him to write me a prophylactic script for hydroxychloroquine and doxycycline. He was fine with writing me one for doxy but told me that hydroxychloroquine did not work. I demurred and said that my reading said different and would he reconsider. He then said that the pharmacy would not fill a prescription unless I was already diagnosed with beervirus.
So it doesn’t work but you can’t have it unless you can show that you are ill. I have other doctors I can approach, for a prophylactic prescription and I will have to do that as I will have to get out and find some income fairly soon. Root hog or die same as it ever was.
Sir, similar numbers in Santa Barbara county. Lompoc Club Fed prison accounts for 903(!) of the 1418 confirmed cases. 308 More between Lompoc and Santa Maria, which as you know is an hour and a half north of SB. Scroll down this to see the map.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/santa-barbara-county/
Colonel:
Prompted by the statement of one of the “experts” that we are headed toward a cold, hard winter (or something like that) the following occurred to me.
What if Covid mutates later in the year to a deadly strain as the Spanish flu did in its’ second year. All of the people who were previously exposed to the current mild form of the virus will have antibodies that provide some degree of protection to the mutated version. They will be much less likely of becoming sick, or if they do, much less likely of dying. On the other hand, the people who have avoided exposure to the current virus, because of sheltering at home and social distancing, will be dropping like flies. Only this time young healthy people will be affected.
Neither Fauci, Birx, nor any of the other people promoted as experts by the media have mentioned this possibility/probability. Like most people I gave Fauci the benefit of the doubt. I have come to realize he does have an agenda. What it is I don’t know but I find it hard to believe someone with his background can be as stupid as he seems.
If it wasn’t so serious I would laugh every time someone promoting the current lockdown polices said they were basing their actions on “science”. The only country following a science based approach is Sweden: vaccination through exposure to the mild form of the virus.
Being a dilettante musician I have friends and many acquaintances who are pretty much full time players (maybe a minimum wage job on the side) are far left types (goes with the territory). Yes. They all cheer the virus and the lockdown and associated destruction of the economy because they are sure that the longer it goes on, the more likely the nation will emerge structured around the green new deal and socialism. Their leftist media sources assure them that will be outcome with all kinds of sophistry and other spurious logic. They love the idea of playing music in dives all night, sleeping and smoking dope all day, and getting lots of free stuff.
It’s been interesting, being from Hawaii but I have been in Louisiana for many months helping my Father shut down and sell his business and house. Hawaii has about the least incidence but some of the strictest rules. Here in Jefferson Parish (outside of New Orleans) they have the highest number of deaths of any parish (surpassing Orleans recently). In fact more have died in the parish then have tested positive in Hawaii. There has been something of a “lockdown” in LA, but I would say that the locals have only obeyed it to the extent that they felt necessary. Yes, all the restaurants are take out only and a fair number of retail and service businesses are closed, but plenty of cars on the road. Anything dealing with construction seems business as usual. I would estimate about 30-40% of people wear masks. Maybe they are just a bit more fatalistic here (if it gets me, it gets me). Meanwhile Hawaii seems to have moved the goal posts from “bending the curve” to zero incidence. I can’t see how tourism (and the wider Hawaii economy) can survive with that as the goal unless some sort of miraculous vaccine appears. Too, the problem with socialism can be seen with the state’s unemployment system, where they’ve only been able to process about half the claims due to computer problems. No real incentive to fix it, though they did ask for volunteer state workers who are paid to sit at home to come in and man a phone bank.
Col.,
There hasn’t been an avalanche of deaths amongst the homeless either. Did you see the puff piece editorializing from shields and Brooks on PBS friday? Fauci the hero! State revenue collapsed and we need to shovel money to the states (Brooks, the pseudo conservative). They both ignore this economic collapse is due to government ordering businesses not to operate.
Take out those who were never confirmed to have Covid-19 and those who died “with” Covid-19 and not “from” Covid, and you end up with a normal flu season.
San Diego County just revised their triple digit death numbers dwon to double digist, weeding our the deaths they could not confirm were caused by Covid. Our county included someone who died while actually under Hospice care as a “corona death”.
Our blue California county numbers are similar to Stanislaus county, but we phave a much higher quotient of virtue signalers who love parading in their masks and showing their “concern” by jumping into the road way if forced to pass by another pedestrian on the same sidewalk. I fear their covid-19 brain rot is permanent.
Fake stats join fake news, leaving only an ominous social and political agenda justifying the destruction of the US economy. I still swear Nancy Pelosi used Trump’s SOTU address as a road map, or a Nordon Bomb Sighter to inflict maximum damage to any possible Trump 2020 bragging rights.
Go down the list, her group of virtue-signaling, expert-loving, partisan henchmen set out to destroy every single Trump SOTU bragging right.
John from Michigan wrote; “What if Covid mutates later in the year to a deadly strain as the Spanish flu did in its’ second year. All of the people who were previously exposed to the current mild form of the virus will have antibodies that provide some degree of protection to the mutated version.”
More than 90% of the population is still immunologically naive. As a mutation is usually a disadvantage for the pathogen in this situation (Hint: a wildtype is a wildtype for a reasone :-)), why would one expect a new more virulent strain?
https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1262086263080919041?s=21
Even Borgist Fareed thinks this has gone too far. As the Ceres Courier oped notes Wuhan virus death rate in Stanislaus County is 0.000025 percent. The death rate in California is 0.0000546 percent. What’s the death rate percentage of automobile accidents or deaths in bathtubs?
Does this justify lockdowns and arbitrary bureaucratic decisions who can get a paycheck and who can’t?
>> As of Monday, 2,172 have been listed as COVID-19 deaths in California. Divide that number by 39,780,000 and you have a death rate of 0.0000546 percent.
Check your math. To get percent you have to multiply by 100. For instance, a defect rate of .01 is 1%. So that comes comes out to .00546%.
Ulenspiegel:
It is quite common for viruses to mutate. The reason new flu vaccines are needed almost every year is precisely because of this. Some epidemiologists have indicated that COVID has already mutated (sorry, no link). A virulent strain would only be disadvantageous to the virus if the incubation period shortened. Also, viruses are not thinking beings that make decisions. Mutations are random in nature and not based on what the virus “wants”.
I’m not definitely saying the virus will mutate to a deadly strain, only time will tell, but it will mutate because that is what viruses do. That is what the “Spanish” flu did and we saw the results.
Do you acknowledge if this should occur that the current lockdown policies would exacerbate the problem ?
It just seems to me that this virus was tailor made for a Hillary Clinton presidency. President Trump made the 100% correct decision to give the 50 state governors control. Under Clinton, I think we’d have seen as much lock down as possible for the whole country for as long as they could get away with it.
Great article from the Ceres Courier, thanks Col Lang.
I note that at least the Ceres Courier admits the possibility that social distancing might be the proximate cause of the low death rate, in which case easing restrictions will produce an uptick in cases. That is the calculation over here, however the health system has had three months to prepare and the State Government has started easing restrictions with the proviso that the lockdown can be reimposed if new infections spike too high.
There are still any number of doofuses, but not of course at SST, confusing cause and effect. They may be in for a brutal, perhaps even tragic, lesson if they are wrong.
That said, we are having our first joyous reunion with a few friends over dinner tonight. I hope none of us are living in a fools paradise.
The Great Spanish flu did not kill people; secondary pneumonia killed them. Anti-biotics had not yet been invented which would have saved many of those “Spanish flu” lives.
Anti-biotics would also have ruined many a great opera’s story line: Imagine instead Mimi (La Boheme) and Violetta (La Traviata) living out their days as aging menopausal housewives stuck baking cookies, instead of dying romantically from TB while still young, tragic and beautiful.
One will “assume” a more virulent new strain during an election year, if one thinks they stand to gain spreading this fear politically. Distorts any possible gainful science on the matter – which is the real crime.
walrus
Yes, we will soon know the identity of the doofii.
“To rob the public, we must first deceive it. The trick consists in persuading the public that the theft is for its advantage ; and by this means inducing it to accept, in exchange for its property, services which are fictitious, and often worse.” – Bastiat
19th century French philosopher.
Doug,
You are correct! The correct percentage of deaths from Wuhan virus in California is 0.00546%.
2,172 deaths in California so far from Wuhan virus. The number of deaths in California from auto accidents in 2018 was 3,651. We’ll know by the end of this year if Wuhan virus is more deadly than automobiles.
What’s the price in unemployment and bankruptcy?Fed Chief Powell on the record that 40% of households earning less than $40,000 are unemployed. It seems that those whose paychecks not affected are more keen on lockdown.
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1261861847667363841?s=21
How many deaths acceptable for no lockdown and individuals making their own decisions on sheltering or not? How to determine the length of lockdown?
Walurs,
“uptick in cases” which does not mean giant leap in deathes. What’s the reported number of deaths due to a lack of cancer screenings, organ transplants, or a dozen other surgeries and preventative medical procedures deemed non-essential? How about suicides, drug od’s or other ills of poverty and internment of law abiding citizens?
If the numbers are correct, SMOD’s are projected to be more deadly than Wuhan.
Jack,
I agree with the jist of your comments.
>> What’s the price in unemployment and bankruptcy?Fed Chief Powell on the record that 40% of households earning less than $40,000 are unemployed.
This is exactly the question and it’s a very good one. This really deserves a longer response because way too little is discussed about this. The reason I made the comment about percentages is because this sort of error is used to minimize arguments made, in the case by the Ceres Courier and it stood out like a sore thumb when I read the piece.
One of the things I learned early in my career was to look for errors in things I wanted to be true more than those in things I believed were wrong and false. It saved me a lot of time and it made me much more productive.
https://twitter.com/heisenbergrpt/status/1262159050860638209?s=21
What would have been heresy just 50-60 years ago is now perfectly normal. Of course the Ph.Ds will argue that the world is completely different! Yet history proves again and again that such expedience always require more and more until it breaks.
Another Ph.D, Bernanke, essentially said not too long ago that we need to destroy savings to bailout speculative losses but it’s an emergency and it is only temporary. We’ll reverse it soon enough. A few said temporary will come more often and the scale will only get bigger.
Bastiat knew then. We haven’t learned much.
Jack,
re: “It seems that those whose paychecks not affected are more keen on lockdown.”
Interesting graph of those answering question, “Is stay at home order a violation of US constitutional rights?”
https://www.unz.com/anepigone/safety-first-liberty-last/
I suggest that the low numbers of “Under $50k income” and [PC alert] Blacks who object to Stay at Home order are at this moment and in this circumstance receiving more in government payouts than they would if working or if receiving ordinary government payouts.
“Republicans” register the greatest number who hold that forced stay at home is a violation of constitutional rights; next highest number opposed to lockdown is Annual income $100k +
It’s fair to suggest that these groups are more likely to be able to work from home, therefore still have income. But they are NOT “keen on lockdown.”
OTOH, everywhere I look in the MD – VA suburbs and DC, construction is still going gangbusters; especially noteworthy is the number of traffic cameras being installed. Everywhere!
I suppose a construction worker – electrician earns between $60k and $100k.
One more thing, about our “Heroes.”
The surgeon is working by phone and email.
The oncologist keeps his office door locked. Receptionist, masked, stays behind a desk inside the locked doors; desk is barricaded behind chairs, barricade is surrounded by tape; a 6′ distance behind the tape is marked off.
But no one is allowed in the office!
To get oncologist’s assessment of cancer image results, one must schedule a teleconference.
That means that one is required to allow one’s face and voice to appear on internet, which is accessible by gawd knows what data miners and biometricians — the surveillance state.
Medical centers are empty shells, guarded at front doors by former MacDonald’s employees moving up the ladder. Their job is to elicit answers to 3 questions about COVID; ensure use of sanitizer and wearing of a mask; TAKE OFF GLOVES (germ vectors), and if you’ve passed all those, leave the building because there’s no one there to provide medical services. I wouldn’t believe it if I hadn’t seen & experienced it. Surreal.
Deap,
“We have a much higher quotient of virtue signalers who love parading in their masks and showing their ‘concern’ by jumping into the road way if forced to pass by another pedestrian on the same sidewalk. I fear their covid-19 brain rot is permanent.”
I live in a small college town in Oregon, and it’s the same here. I’ve thought these people were fragile from the moment I moved here three years ago, and man do they deliver these days. Politics and psychology are even more fused than I once thought. It seems those who are content to hide under the covers until the monster in the closet goes away seem by and large to vote a certain way too.
I’ve started openly laughing at the virtue signalers lately, as when I saw a couple with masks on tenderly “kiss” each other in the grocery store. They’re comical oddities now. When the temps start to hit the high 90s here in June, those people will go back to relying on their bumper stickers and t-shirts to signal their moral rectitude. I’m trying not to pity the fearful though, because I truly don’t want to end up despising them. But that’s becoming more and more difficult, surrounded by them as I am.
I lost a very dear friend in Washington DC to this thing on Friday last week, 34 years old. I’ve lost other close friends and relatives to other causes and too soon, and the grief has never been contingent on how they went out. There are countless ways to die in the world (many if not most of them far more statistically likely than this). This is just one more. I’m not a fearful person and I choose to live.
Of course much is motivated, in the US, by the desire to crush the economy and thus win the election but there is a similar phenomenon in Britain. People who obsessed about Brexit, and sought to reverse it, have become similarly obsessed by this nasty flu, perhaps there is a deep need being expressed.
“When men choose not to believe in God, they do not thereafter believe in nothing, they then become capable of believing in anything.”
Walrus
In Australia’s case you should be fine as you have a good level of testing and very few new cases. In the UK and US we have lots of circulating virus and fewer tests per head so any increase in contacts will increase the rate of spread, also in both cases the numbers of currently infected is still continuing to increase. While the distribution of cases in changing the total numbers are still on the rise.
More than 90% of the population is still immunologically naive. As a mutation is usually a disadvantage for the pathogen in this situation (Hint: a wildtype is a wildtype for a reasone :-)), why would one expect a new more virulent strain?
Posted by: Ulenspiegel | 17 May 2020 at 02:32 PM
Not sure, but why not. The pathogen wants to spread and find more nurishment to survive, while doing nothing really roductive. Like Eric’s musician friends?
Can we compare it to a meme that gets stronger the more well established it becomes. Let’s say vs a new meme?
In my area of South W Florida restaurants go to 50% capacity today. Restaurant owners have two big complaints:
employees that won’t come back to work as they are now making
more money by being unemployed
food delivery companies are price gouging them – a really low
blow for owners right now
It almost feels normal here now.
Bill,
“employees that won’t come back to work as they are now making more money by being unemployed”
Really, do you have some actual data to back that up as the Florida UI website is still half a million applications behind, many have been denied coverage, and if a business reopens and employees refuse to return to work it is a voluntary quit, which negates eligability for unemployement payments.
“food delivery companies are price gouging them” Which ones are doing that?
Origins of this “social distancing” craze and mandate traced back to a teen-ager’s hypothetical science project in 2006 and a boost from the movie “Contagion”. https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/
This is the “science” supporting this total breakdown of our economy and our country – which exposed a far more dangerous disease – a wholesale willingness to obey “experts”, and reject the critical maxim: Trust, but verify.
Tell me Dr Fauci, have you ever tested this teenager’s science project speculation about “social distancing” as an effective disease control measure, before you inflicted in on 300 million people in the US?
If there is any hope for America, looks like we will need to get another high school student to win a science far project debunking social distancing. Was not that one of Alexandra Ocasio Cortez’s stellar accomplishments – a high school science fair winner.
But what do I know. I only got a third place ribbon for my forestry class leaf collection at my high school science fair. Though my biology class project finding “A leopard frog’s spots are its fingerprints” did get recognition by our local university. I guess I am now well on my way to setting national policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igx86PoU7v8
Surprising to me is that Bill Gates feels by improving the health of the developing 3rd world will decrease population growth in the countries as their will be less need for the parents to have extra children.
Video goes into plan for world mass vaccinations and biometric digital id that will go with it.
anti gates tone but good explanation of what is developing
deaths/population X 100 = % deaths in population.
Steve
That is a different statistic. On that basis you would have .02% death rate from COVID-19 in Alexandria Virginia as of yestiddy.