He also says that Israel should accomodate Obama by putting in place an open ended freeze on Jewish constructionin Arab East Jerusalem.
I know Sneh slightly, have talked to him a few times and listened to him make presentations. He is described as a "liberal." I suppose so but more importantly he is a very tough minded, logic driven soldier and planner who speaks dispassionately even when the subject is repellent. He is a lot like Ehud Barak, but perhaps more so. He is someone to take seriously.
His statement raises the question once again of an Israeli attack on Iran without US acquiescence, and therefore the question of how they would do it.
They have about 350 fighters. All but 30 or so are F-16s. These aircraft require a lot of aerial refueling, or "up close" refueling bases. It's a long way from Israel to the scattered, often hardened sites that would be the targets. The IAF has what? 40 tankers, most of which are C-130s. What are they going to do, loiter over Iraq to refuel going in and coming out? Land on Iraqi bases? One recent fantastic scenario at a non-government war game in Washington featured the construction (without Saudi knowledge) of an F-16 capable secret Israeli temporary airstrip in NE Saudi Arabia that would be used to make up their shortfalls. The air guys will correct me but I am under the impression that this would have to have a long, FOD free runway with a hard surface. My impression is that the author of the scenario was desperate. So, I still don't know how the IAF gets to more than a few targets with a handful of aircraft. A handful in this context would be a hundred airframes or less. If they do that they can "dig" some holes once or twice.
Then, there is the ballistic missile force (Jericho). OK. They can make the ranges, but the "bird" only flies once. How many do they have and how big are the conventional warheads? What is the CEP at range? Would be the result be a few dozen holes in the ground, many of which would hit nothing but stony earth?
Then, there is the navy? What? Cruise missiles with conventional warheads fired from the northern Gulf? Once again, how effective would the strike be in terms of accuracy and weight of explosives delivered?
And then, there is this:
"In a recent report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), military analyst Anthony Cordesman concluded that Israel will have to use low-yield earth-penetrating nuclear weapons if it wants to take out deeply-buried nuclear sites in Iran."
So, what is Sneh talking about? pl