Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term. Lithuanian intelligence published its 2024 national threat assessment on March 7 wherein it assessed that Russia has the manpower, material, and financial resources to sustain its war effort in Ukraine in the near term. Lithuanian intelligence noted that Russia reconstituted and increased its deployed manpower in Ukraine in 2023 despite suffering heavy losses but continues to prioritize quantity of manpower and materiel over quality of forces. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has become a driving force within the Russian economy at the expense of other economic sectors and that Russia had allocated at least 10.8 trillion rubles (about $119 billion) to military spending in 2023. The Lithuanian intelligence assessment stated that Russia’s economy is doing better than expected due to high oil prices and Russia’s ability to offset Western sanctions. Lithuanian intelligence caveated that short-term factors are driving Russia’s economic growth and that Russian structural problems, which impose limits on Russia’s short-term capacity, are only likely to deepen in the long term. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that the Kremlin views Russia’s upcoming March 2024 presidential election as a significant event to legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin and that Putin will be more likely to make unpopular decisions (potentially such as mobilization) after the election, which could allow the Kremlin to address some potential constraints on its long-term war effort.
Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russia fails to achieve these objectives through military means. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that “Russia shows no intention of de-escalating” its war against Ukraine and that Russia is unlikely to abandon its operational objectives in the long-term, even if Russia suffers a military defeat in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia will continue to pursue its goal of completely undermining Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty, enforcing Ukraine’s neutral status, and destroying Ukraine’s military potential in the long term, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia will also continue efforts to expand the Russian state’s administrative control to the administrative borders of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts in the short term. Recent Russian official statements underscore that the Kremlin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine have remained unchanged since the beginning months of the full-scale invasion and likely will not change, despite Russian information operations that aim to persuade Western audiences and leaders that Russia has limited objectives in Ukraine to seduce the West to support negotiations that favor Russia.
Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has allocated substantial resources to the war in Ukraine but maintains the means to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region. Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia has deployed forces and assets from its western border areas to Ukraine and has thus had to increasingly rely on air and naval capabilities for security and deterrence purposes on NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia deployed Kalibr missile carrier ships on combat duty in Lake Ladoga near St. Petersburg for the first time in 2023, likely in response to Finland’s accession to NATO, and increased the number of Tu-22M3 heavy bomber flights over the Baltic Sea from none in 2022 to five in 2023. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) also recently assessed that the Russian military is forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and Moscow Military District (MMD) in part to posture against Finland and NATO.
Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal Military Thought that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2024
Comment: Falling back on the ISW. I know a lot of you hate that, but this is different. ISW is just parroting what Lithuanian Intelligence put in their defense assessment. So save your ire for my Baltic brothers. I’ve found the full intelligence assessment on the Lithuanian State Security Department (VSD) site… all in English. The VSD is the civilian intelligence agency. The Second Investigation Department under the Ministry of National Defense (AOTD) is the military counterpart. This assessment is a joint VSD and AOTD product.
https://www.vsd.lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf
This strikes me as a sober assessment. What strikes me right away is that, like me, Lithuanian Intelligence knows that the Kremlin leopards have not changed their spots and will not do so in the foreseeable future. This was the same assessment made by Poland and Solidarność in particular back in 1992. In conversations among the newly evolving labor unions in the former Soviet territories, there was great trepidation about the Kremlin eventually trying to reassert control over the former Soviet states. Belarus, they surmised, would be the first to fall. I guess they knew what they were talking about.
That tracked with what I learned from insiders as the Soviet Union collapsed. Within months of the collapse, the apparatchiki were back in control of the deep state, bidding their time until they could seize the reins of power. And their goals never really changed.
TTG
TTG – you might want to look at this. Iran has a 5th generation stealth fighter?
https://x.com/iranspec/status/1766785373076967923
Not according to this below (I know, only wikipedia).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAIO_Qaher-313
“Publicly announced on 1 February 2013, A press presentation about the project was made by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi on 2 February 2013, as part of the Ten-Day Dawn ceremonies.[citation needed] Independent experts have expressed significant doubts about the viability of the aircraft.
It was never developed, a UAV called Qaher 313 will reportedly be developed by 202”
I could say it, but today’s iChing specifically says to not.
Take your pick:
1- Plan for the worst to prevent it from happening.
For example, I sure hope the French General Staff has a plan to reconquer Monaco!
Speaking of landing (impossible in Monaco). In 1937, a French staff exercise with the theme of reconquering France from the outside by a landing found that the Normandy coast was the best solution, good beaches well protected from prevailing winds, direct route to the Ruhr and central Germany etc…
Plan and plan some more.
I was in Germany in 1981 ( or 1982?) during the Solidarnosc episode in Poland. The Soviets were spreading rumors of a 1968 Czechoslovakia-style operation. Many of our leaders were convinced that the Soviets would not stop at Poland’s western border (thus creating a direct link between Brest (-Litovsk) and Brest (in Brittany)). In the French strategy, troops were positioned in Germany to serve as a warning prior to nuclear engagement. And, if necessary, to conduct braking operations to gain time. We prepared ourselves. It was easy: we didn’t have much. As we know, the worst didn’t happen
2- It’s just a way of saying that Ukraine is finished.
I hope that Western civilian and military intelligence services have good sources in Moscow, good analysts and, above all, that they are taken seriously by the dummies who call themselves our leaders. And there I am worried.
Making public intelligence estimates doesn’t seem very wise to me. Over the past two years, there have been too many outrageously false estimates. Perhaps the dummies are appointing dummies …
On the other hand, Congress is under pressure from all sides, and an impressive one at that, to vote the money for Ukraine. Perhaps these items are part of the plan.
There, fixed that one part. I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to remove the rest of the bellicose propaganda from the text. OK, one more:
Wow, elections legitimize leaders who can then make hard decisions – who knew. It’s a shame Lithuanian intelligence do not share their assessment of the legitimacy of Zelensky and
mass kidnappingsmobilizations in election-free Ukraine. The author is clearly irony-impaired.Everything in this ‘product’ (except the spin by omission re Russia’s casus belli and her nonexistent designs on NATO territory) has come directly from Kremlin announcements and Putin’s speeches over the last 2+ years – or is otherwise obvious to anyone observing this war without rose-tinted Ukie propaganda goggles. Perhaps I ought to work in Intelligence.
Why would anyone doubt Russia’s war aims and commitment to demilitarize Ukraine remain the same? All that’s changed are fortunes on the battlefield – and so the need for hyperventilating nonsense like this from Austin downwards about how the new Red Army’s march to the west will conquer the world. It would be hilarious if the implications of the mass delusion were not so serious.
The spin, of course, is that Russia’s entirely unprovoked invasion is merely the beginning of a project of imperial conquest which will inevitably encroach onto NATO territory. The Kremlin explicitly refutes this accusation. Though given the existence of Article 5 I can’t see why they bother to state the blindingly obvious; that this is never going to happen.
Whipping Europe into war fever is clearly part of the Biden administration’s exit strategy from the latest (and greatest) regime change fiasco. They need to sling the Ukraine millstone round Europe’s neck ASAP. And lunatics like Macron seem only too happy to cooperate in leading their countries into an apocalyptic war. The real danger here is irrational fears become a self fulfilling prophesy. Will the sane please stand up.
Sober assessment? TTG, your PDS is untreatable.
Barbara Ann,
I collected against Russia and the rise of Putin for 20 years. Since retirement, I’ve only read about him. I’ve found he and the Kremlin are much as Lithuanian Intelligence and others describe.
Unfortunately, your Lithuanian links and Cold War indoctrination will always colour your interpretations and assessments.
Ms. Barbara Ann thank you for the analysis of the current situation in Ukraine. I always wonder how people conveniently forget about not too distant past as a matter of fact less than 10 year old history of regime change in Ukraine and the continuing saga of Minsk peace deals that were approved by UN Security council (that means the 3 of the P5 members approved the Minsk process). It is so sad even the most esteemed members of this blog fell hook line and sinker with the unprovoked aggression by Russia. I guess we have to give Kudos to the Propoganda machine. By the way here is a recent post by M K Bhadrakumar https://www.indianpunchline.com/novorossiya-rising-from-ashes-like-phoenix/
Thank you very much for your sober and accurate response.
TTG, I do admire you for your willingness to hear other points of view. This is nowadays quite incredible. A lot of problems would have been avoided if people would have had an open discussion and not resorted to cancel culture. Thanks
Yes, absolutely.
Besides, he firmly he stands up for his convictions against close to unanimous consensus. Occasionally. Impressive. 😉
This assessment is rather widely shared among several NATO countries that are now ramping up their militaries to meet the considerable Russian threat. The surrender monkeys in the GOP are partly to blame, since they have shown some doubt about the US response. It is considered that Russia will not stop in Ukraine, unless they are unable to bear the increasing costs.
Some time ago I met a young Russian who was working on a cruise ship and I spent some time talking to him. He has made it to the US thru an arduous journey, including a very long bicycle ride through Mexico and camping out at the border for 3 months. But an important thing I learned is that he and many of the others fleeing Russia are in contact among themselves and with others still in Russia. They are also among the most educated ones and that has to have a long term effect on that country.
A lot coming from the Putin Pals has to do with nuclear threat that repeatedly come from Russia. There are two serious problems with that. First of all, military leaders there know that if you set off an explosion, you have no idea when it will end and it is highly likely that when it does, they would no longer have a country. The second aspect is that as has been shown in other areas, they can’t rely on everything working as intended. Some important parts may have already been sold in their very corrupt system.
My overview is that while Russia is doing enough right now, it is not sustainable in the long run. It is death by a thousand cuts and even if they prevail militarily, they would face serious headwinds for a very long time and as we have seen, the world is a whole lot more interconnected nowadays and the cost of being excluded will only rise and get worse. As they saw in the late 1980’s, the end can come rather quickly.
You could substitute the US for Russia in your post.
I live close to where submarine missiles are undergoing maintenance and I have toured that facility. These have a lot of electronic components, but I am not aware of anyone stealing them and selling them. I doubt they can be as assured in Russia. Thus, I doubt that your conclusion is anywhere close to reality. But I am sure Putin would appreciate your effort.
Sir what do you think of this Video by Col Daniel Davis about our leadership in the world https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_y3NWqmwg
Muralidhar Rao
This probably belongs on the previous thread, but as you posted it here: The speaker in that video is pretty much correct on the parlous state of US/Israeli relations and it’s interesting (though unsurprising) to learn that the Gaza pier thing was Bibi’s idea.
Alastair Crooke is a must read on this topic. His assessment is that Israel as a whole has drifted away from the US policy-wise – partly because US Israeli policy no longer has much relationship to reality. Biden’s championing of the long dead possibility of a 2 state solution at the SOTU was a case in point. Bibi is openly defying and even humiliating Biden. The “no greater friend of Israel” spiel is a sad joke. If Biden wants to win in November he’ll need to do something about this abusive relationship and the first step is to realize you are in one.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/03/11/out-of-touch-with-reality-white-house-fails-to-navigate-the-israeli-re-calibration
Ms. Barbara Ann thanks for your kind comments. I totally agree with you regarding Alstair Crooke he seems to be very knowledgeable about Middle East and I follow him on Judge Nepalitano’s Video as well as on Strategic Culture website. Anyway the reason I posted about a video by Col Daniel Davis is how the American Patriotic Community is kind of miffed at Bibi showing his middle finger to his benefactors. I also wanted to see if the people in this blog who have served our country feel the same way. But like Alstaire Crooke notes the whole country of Israel has turned hard right (otherwise how can one explain people blocking trucks from going to Gaza). My feeling is when people loose the basic humanity and compassion for their fellow human beings those people have already lost. May be Israeli establishment and media can control American political process, but America is not the world. When the rest of the world sees the pictures of starving children some one has to pay a price. No amount of PR, Optics and fantastic plans of building temporary ports etc will help. Do these guys really think that people in the rest of the world are not aware of the crossings between Israel and Gaza also between Egypt and Gaza? Sorry for the long post.
“Some time ago I met a young Russian who was working on a cruise ship and I spent some time talking to him. He has made it to the US thru an arduous journey, including a very long bicycle ride through Mexico and camping out at the border for 3 months. ”
What a heart warming, if somewhat incredulous, story.
A bicycle ride through Mexico and 3 month camping at the US border so he can work on a cruise ship ?
Did the young fellow swim across the Atlantic too, so he get to the promised land ?
There was a really interesting diary on DailyKos about the possibility that the tritium booster gas for the weapons may have been getting stolen for years. Completely speculative, but IMO certainly not impossible.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/23/2087736/-Do-any-of-Russia-s-Nuclear-Weapons-Actually-Work
No need for stolen tritium, just lack of maintenance, given that the half-life is about 12 years it should be “refreshed” every few years.
Agree. Ukraine made the right decision in giving up their nuclear weapons for territorial guarantees. Unfortunately, the Russians ignored their commitment to respect Ukraine’s borders, and the other guarantors didn’t respond as they should have (I’m talking about 2014 here).
Lars – “Putin Pals?”
“Donbass Pal” here, and will remain so. We cab argue until the cows come home about the motives and actions of the Russian or Western politicians. One thing, however, is indisputable. The long Calvary of the people of the Donbass is nearing its end and we should thank God that that is so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4QVsQ72kOg&t=1126s
I call BS on this story because I know what “Working on a cruise ship” actually entails. To put it simply, very few people will expose themselves to the simply rotten working conditions on cruise ships except the dirt poor and most certainly, anyone who actually cares about personal freedom and opportunity wont go near a cruise ship.
1. Try going on deck on your cruise ship pre – dawn say about 5.00 am. You will see gangs of Indians dressed in virtual rags doing the cleaning of the deck furniture. They don’t speak english and are not allowed to be seen or talk to passengers. They are paid virtually nothing.
2. Then come the “guest services” people. They are white, young, good looking, personable and speak english. They come from the poorest nations in the EU.
3.Then there are the “shopkeepers” these are people who have leased the bars, medical suite and shops on the ship.
4. Then come the officers – not only competent but they look like officers.
The cruise line deliberately chooses staff from a multiplicity of ethnic groups and thring rotations are such that ten percent of the crew are changed each voyage….and the crew are all on individual contracts with labor hire companies. They can be dismissed in a heartbeat and the ethnic mix and working conditiions ensure that the crew can never unionise.
So yeah – a young russian working the cruise lines? Yes, especially after the fall of the USSR, but today? no way.
It’s not surprising that Russia wants to have influence in Eastern Europe just like it is not surprising that USA wants to have influence in Latin America. My guide at Tikal National Park in Guatemala told me that when Alfonso Portillo was in power he was taking decisions that helped the Guatemalan people but which hurt US businesses – and that is why he was convicted on money laundering charges in a New York court in 2014.
Which is almost amusing when you know that the US is the number one “bank secrecy” jurisdiction in the world.
Portillo pleaded guilty to those money laundering charges. Only spent nine months in prison although he’d been sentenced to 70 months. And by the way all that was ten years after he was no longer Guatemala’s President.
Moore important IMHO, how did the banks skate charges? They should have done some prison time along with him. Possibly they all turned him in to avoid prosecution themselves and forfeiture?
leith
The Financial Secrecy Index is a ranking of jurisdictions most complicit in helping individuals to hide their finances from the rule of law. USA is #1.
https://fsi.taxjustice.net/
US banks only get prosecuted for engaging in money laundering if that laundering is out of line with US interests.
James,
More Europeans badmouthing the Americans. Who’s funding Markus Meinzer and company for putting together that op? Just when do Europeans, or Canadians, get to decide what US tax laws should be?
Banksters or gangsters, its the same world wide. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion come to mind.
James
Anti money laundering laws are an interesting case in which the burden of proof is reversed. One is presumed guilty (and one’s assets frozen) until one can prove source of funds/wealth. This is the great weakness in the claims of crypto currencies to provide sovereignty over your money. The theory is sound within the blockchain system, but as soon as you touch the world of money you can actually buy stuff with (e.g. via an exchange) the banks have you. The notable exception is El Salvador since 2021 – I wonder have you visited there recently? I’d be interested to know how Bitcoin as legal tender works in practice.
I’m looking forward to the day Satoshi Nakamoto is declared the world’s wealthiest man. With bitcoin at $72k that day is coming ever closer. Satoshi is estimated to own a little under a million bitcoin.
Barbara Ann,
The latest anti-Tik Toc law will allow the forced sail of social media companies that ‘interfere’ in elections. AOC was on the floor yesterday telling us all how Musk changing the X algorithm once he bought the company is ‘election interference’. I’m sure it is not what congress intends. Of course not….
The deployment of Kalibr missile carrier ships in Lake Ladoga is because they understand that since Finland & Sweden joined up the Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake. Might as well move the entire Baltic Fleet.
Lake Ladoga freezes solid every winter making those missile ships stationary targets locked in ice three to five feet thick. Unless they also deploy icebreakers or are counting on global warming? They have several smaller diesel-electric icebreakers in St Petersburg that could get there and do the job.
In the winter of 1941-42 they used an ice road over that lake to deliver 356 thousand metric tons (almost 400 thousand US tons) of supplies including food/military supplies/fuel trying to break the Siege of Leningrad. From mid-November through April, over 122 days, they moved an average of 2780 metric tons per day in trucks over that lake. In the winter of 1942-1943 they moved another 210 thousand metric tons over the ice and built, or started to build, a railroad over the ice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_of_Life
To be frank, I was wrong. ( not here )
I thought the Russians were going to proceed with an encirclement of Avdeevka.
In fact they chose to conquer the town piece by piece.
For one simple reason, to protect the soldiers.
In urban areas, drones are less dangerous than in open country.
Surprising, isn’t it ?
Russian staff care about the live of soldiers !
aleksandar,
I don’t think you were wrong. The Russians appeared to be trying to encircle Avdiivka for months. For many months, those attacks to encircle the town were stymied. Eventually the Ukrainian defenders were threatened with encirclement and were forced to retreat. As for the Russian staff caring about their soldiers, months of repeated meat assaults and horrendous casualties points to far less concern about casualties.
BTW, I putting your comment about the French Joint Staff assessment up as a full post. It’s good info. So are your comments.
TTG, the meat assaults and horrendous casualties are done by the Ukrainians, not the Russians. You really should discount Ukrop propaganda.
Peter Williams,
There’s video evidence, lots of it and comments by Russian soldiers.