Navies spend more time (ideally) preventing conflict in the first place, but if that fails, the big effort is protecting their own side’s logistics and/or denying the enemy theirs. History is littered with examples of combatants who overreached their supply chains or failed to ensure theirs were adequately protected. Field Marshal Rommel is the ‘go-to’ for the former and it’s hard to look past the Battle of the Atlantic for an example of a war-defining logistic struggle.
And so it is today in the contested maritime domains of the Black, Red and China Seas. In each case, a battle for sustainability is playing out as forces there seek to disrupt or preserve freedom of navigation.
In the Black Sea, Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine’s food exports and hold the world to ransom have failed. Grain and other exports through the humanitarian corridor in the west are on the rise as the Black Sea Fleet is driven further and further east by the Ukrainian threat. The Ukrainians’ innovative use of uncrewed surface vessels (USV) dominates the headlines but this is to overlook how many different types of attacks Ukraine has conducted. Only yesterday a Russia vessel which went aground in the Dnipro Estuary last year, and since used as a listening post, was struck by a cruise missile (exact type unknown). For now, Putin has no answer to much of this and has sacked not only the head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet but now, it appears, the Russian Navy commander-in-chief too.
Some even more significant things have been happening outside the media spotlight. Throughout the war in Ukraine, the transport ship Sparta-IV and the tanker Yaz have been central to Russian logistics shipments into the Black Sea. Sparta-IV is one of a series of Russian-owned ships that have previously brought artillery and S-300 air defence missiles from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
These vessels are sanctioned by the UK, Ukraine and the US for “delivering maritime goods on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Defence” but until recently this has had no effect. Turkey, which could deny passage of the Bosporus Strait under the terms of the Montreux Convention, has chosen not to. RUSI research shows that Sparta-IV made six runs to and from the Black Sea in 2023, including prolonged periods with her Automatic Identification System (AIS) system switched off – behaviour often associated with smuggling and illicit activities.
But then last month both the Sparta-IV and the Yaz unexpectedly turned around as they were approaching the southern entrance to the Bosporus. They returned to Tartus and are now heading to Russia via the Baltic. This is a huge delay, and then one must consider the onward overland journey necessary to get their cargoes to the theatre of war. Materiel landed at Novorossiysk had just a hundred miles to go to the Kerch bridges and the battlefields. What was a fairly simple piece of shipping becomes a continental odyssey.
Initially it was assessed that Turkey had finally denied permission to pass through but on closer analysis, it appears that in fact the USV threat in the Black Sea is now so high, the Russians don’t believe it worth the risk, even with a military escort.
As ever, the problem is wider than just these two ships. There are believed to be at least 69 ships on the US sanction list and by the time you get to ships suspected of smuggling grain and oil out of the Black Sea, the list is longer still. But Sparta-IV is one of just a handful of ships smuggling weapons: forcing her not to enter the Black Sea is as significant as the sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva way back in April 2022, maybe more so. Whilst the Moskva strike was an embarrassing operational and tactical failure – and totemic – the effect now is strategic. Moskva showed Russia’s shortcomings in fighting in the maritime domain. The inability to protect its logistics now could, over time, affect Russian ability to fight in all domains.
Comment: This is the result of a well planned, sustained Ukrainian campaign to deny Russia freedom of access in the Black Sea with the ultimate goal of liberating Crimea. The first part of this plan appears to be working. The Black Sea Fleet have largely vacated Sevastopol and are no longer operating in the western half of the Black Sea. The grain corridor established by Ukraine seems to be working well. While the Black Sea is certainly not denied to Russia as a sea LoC, access is being limited.
I think the author is a little too over-exuberant with his claim that Russia is losing the logistic war. They have made great strides in converting to a war economy and have arranged logistical allies (Iran and NK) with interior lines. And they’re still managing to obtain Western technology needed to keep their war machine going.
John Minehan voiced a similar opinion earlier today about Russian logistics.
But the LoCs into Theater remain vulnerable and that vulnerability has increased as the Ukrainians have had success against the Black Sea Fleet. Those successes also indicate that Russia lacks support in the occupied territories.
All the Ukrainians need to do is get HIMARS systems close enough to the LoCs into Theater to control them by fire, then the Russians collapse.
The Russians excel at the Recon/Fires Complex, but still have not been able to successful develop a Recon/Strike Complex on the Operational level. In 2003, the US dropped the Iraqi grid in 3days, the Russians have not been able to do this in 2 years.
What else has Ukraine been doing in their war against Russian logistics? Since day one they have been hitting Russian supply and fuel vehicles. Given the Russian reliance on railway supply, this is a smart strategy. Another smart strategy, which they have not fully implemented, is to target the electrical grid powering Russia’s rail system. Unlike the Ukrainian railways, which can operate fairly effectively with available diesel locomotives, the Russian rail system in their western theater, is reliant on their electric locomotives.
Ukraine is currently targeting Russian refineries. That’s also a good strategic move, although it seems to be more aimed at the overall Russian economy rather than depriving the Russian military of necessary POL. We’ll see if they can stick to that plan.
TTG
That should read NATO is targeting Russia’s oil refineries. They couldn’t do it without foreign weapons deliveries.
Fred,
They’re doing it with Ukrainian designed and built drones. NATO undoubtedly is helping with targeting and communications.
TTG,
Sure they are. Which is what will give them “Victory” of destroying Russia just like GB, FR, etc always wanted. Why things are so bad I bet Putin loses his next election. Having been beaten on the battlefield already, like we have been told ever since the Ghost of Kiev shot up their air force.
TTG –
I agree that the refinery war is a good strategic move by Ukraine. But it’s not only an attack on the Russian economy. Those refineries also produce bunker oil for Russian shipping, not only commercial shipping but naval as well. Diesel for Russian tanks, BTRs and trucking. Jet fuel? Maybe those effects have not yet been felt fully? But unless Russian air defense can stop these attacks then inevitably they will. And if they concentrate air defense at refineries then there are other strategic targets deep within Russia left undefended that are ripe for plucking.
And perhaps by driving up the price of gasoline and heating oil it will create discontent with Putin by ordinary Russians? Plus hitting the oligarchs in their wallets could turn them against the oligarch-in-chief, Putin – if he can’t protect their bottom line the why should they back him?
Leith, you do know this is all just whistling in the dark? Even Borrell can see the writing on the wall.
They’ve never been to my taste, the proxy and other wars the Western politicians try to persuade us are wars for Freedom and Democracy. We’d do better to change our ways before the world takes a look at us and sees the emperor has no clothes.
If the world hasn’t done that already. At present we’re running food parcels into Auschwitz-on-Sea. Looks good, running food parcels in, except at the same time Sunak Scholz and Biden are eagerly supplying Netanyahu with everything he needs for his Endlösung. Their crocodile tears aside, the politicians have gifted me with yet another blood-brother.
But I don’t want this man for a blood-brother.
https://thecradle.co/articles/israeli-rabbi-says-kill-everyone-in-gaza-including-babies
Nor this man either. The politicians gave me this man as a blood-brother ten years ago. Didn’t ask me. Didn’t even tell me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICkcyt87Lw0
That particular set of blood-brothers has been shelling civilians in the Donbass since 2014. Doing it even more right now. Using guns and ammunition we give them. A battle for Freedom and Democracy this is not.
It’s also a battle the West lost comprehensively as soon as the sanctions war failed. Hoping otherwise is merely condemning more of our proxies to death. Given that, whistling in the dark is not an entirely innocent pursuit.
” discontent with Putin by ordinary Russians ”
Make me smile always
You should have been in Russia between 1990 and 2000.
Poverty
Corruption (even police and judges)
Prostitution
Children prostitution
Gangs ruling
Stores empty
No food
Insecurity everywhere
Oligarch
Weak state
Orphans living in streets
Drugs
and so on.
Putin has literally lifted Russia from the abyss.
Before ordinary Russian have some discontent with Putin, hell will freeze.
That’s what western MSN hide.
Passing this along – translation pasted from Telegram.
https://t.me/rian_ru/235768
The overwhelming majority of parliamentarians (451) from Germany’s ruling coalition voted in the European Parliament for the supply of Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, while 46 were against and 49 abstained, writes Bild.
The resolution stated, among other things, that Ukraine really needs high-tech air defense systems and long-range cruise missiles, “such as Taurus, Storm Shadow and Scalp.” It also mentioned modern combat aircraft, various types of artillery and ammunition, and drones.
F&L
First Channel (ARD) report on matters:
Union fails again with “Taurus” proposal
Status: 14.03.2024 14:01
In the vote requested by the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag, a majority once again spoke out against “Taurus” deliveries to Ukraine. For the Greens and FDP, however, it was partly a question of principle rather than conviction. Once again, the CDU/CSU failed in the Bundestag with a motion to push through the delivery of “Taurus” cruise missiles to Ukraine. However, a clear majority of MPs spoke out against this form of military support. 687 MPs voted on the motion. Of these, 494 MPs voted against the deliveries, while 188 were in favor. Five MPs abstained. As the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag has 197 members, the CDU and CSU would also have needed votes from the ranks of other parties to achieve a majority for their motion.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
**************************
The numbers above below, on the official site in colors, although not so easy to read. Maybe? But yes, “Ja” means yes in German and “nein” means no. The question is what was the precise vote?
https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/plenum/abstimmung/abstimmung?id=906
This was the basis of the vote:
Recommendation for a resolution and report
of the Committee on Foreign Affairs (3rd Committee)
which offered this solution to the problem:
A. Problem
In the opinion of the petitioning parliamentary group, the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has developed into a war of position and attrition. According to the text of the motion, the Ukrainian forces lack the ability to specifically attack supply lines, command and control facilities and the logistical structures of the Russian invasion army in order to create the basis for further successful offensives. It therefore calls on the Federal Government to 1. immediately comply with the Ukrainian request for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles …
B. Solution
Rejection of the motion with the votes of the SPD, Alliance
90/DIE GRÜNEN (the green party), FDP, AfD and the Die Linke (The Left) group against the votes of the CDU/CSU group, with the BSW group absent.
In other words, if you voted yes, you rejected the Unions’ motion.
F&L
“Representatives of body with no armed forces votes for war” is hardly a man bites dog headline.
The EU of course doesn’t make it easy for you to count the number of MEP’s from any particular country who voted for anything, but anyone with enough patience could work out which of Germany’s 96 MEP’s voted for this, the vote is here
The Bild headline is a great illustration of several things:
– Of the EU doing what is does best – spending member states’ taxpayer money on symbolic, meaningless gestures
– That Bild is a globalist organ desperate to gin up support for war
– Why nationalist parties like the AfD are on the rise in EU states
While Germany remains (nominally at least) a sovereign country it is the Bundestag which will decide whether or not Taurus goes to Ukraine.
Barbara Ann,
Wait until the MSM finds out just what taxing authority the EU council has to raise funds to pay for all those SURE bonds, and the war bonds they want to issue next.
Fred
If the people of the EU really wanted a more perfect union the constituent governments would simply poll their citizens on holding a constitutional convention. The fact that the EU is trying to conduct federalization by stealth tells you all you need to know about how such votes would turn out.
So the war in Ukraine is great for the EU Federalists who think they can use it to scare their populations into federation. And to be fair a lot of the stuff emanating from Russia is helping their cause – e.g. Solovyov on his TV show asking French viewers which cities they want leveling first (in the event that French forces officially deploy to Ukraine).
Barbara Ann,
If memory serves the French originally voted no to joining the EU. So naturally they just kept holding elections until they got the results needed.
They will be out at the beginning of June.
AfD has a different opinion.
Of these, the TAURUS would be the only one that could reach Novorossiysk Harbour.
The EU resolution is here in English version: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RC-9-2024-0143_EN.html
Operative Paragraph 11 is the one to which the Telegram / Bild commentary applies.
It appears that the EU parliamentarians closest to the Government in Berlin voted against it (eight of the 16 SPD members voted against; MinDef is from the SPD), but all delegates the Liberal Party (FDP) and Greens voted in favour – just after voting against it in Berlin. It’s indicative of public opinion calling for increased support for Ukraine.
It has become clear that the decision by Scholz not to deliver the TAURUS is tied to the fact that delivery of the system in full functionality would likely mean that it’s going to be a long time until that capacity is replaced in the German arsenal (replacement for the 18 Leo2s provided in 2023 will take up to 2026).
Delivery of the system without full functionality (just the missiles themselves) as replacement for Storm Shadows etc. is a different question. MinDef ordered last week to overhaul all missiles (about half were past maintenance) and make them ready.
Neither delivery option is assessed to provide an essential advantage to Ukraine to solve the problems they are facing. He is asking what contribution would be achieved by either sinking the remaining Russian ships in the harbour of Novorossiysk, or even destroying the Kerch bridge.
Scholz apparently thinks it’s better to focus on other things. Focus is on the new assembly line in the Lüneburger Heide for annually 200,000 155 mm shells, see also earlier new factory for the 35mm for the Gepard/Cheeta. Decided February, delivered September first batch: https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse/neu-produzierte-gepard-munition-ist-in-ukraine-angekommen-5674218.
It appears that … (eight of the 16 SPD members voted against; MinDef is from the SPD), but all delegates the Liberal Party (FDP) and Greens voted in favour – just after voting against it in Berlin. It’s indicative of public opinion calling for increased support for Ukraine.
No, not ‘just’ after, but before, Wundruk. The Strasbourg vote was February, 29 the Berlin/Bundestag vote March, 14.
Never mind, RIA Novosti decided to refer to the earlier Strasbourg vote on March 16 with focus on Taurus, although compared to the Berlin vote which dealt exclusively with Taurus, Taurus was just a side aspect in the earlier Strasbourg resolution.
Meanwhile, in budgetary news, Germany is kaput:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/germany-running-out-money-and-debt-levels-are-exploding-finance-minister-warns
Fred,
Yves Smith has also weighed in on Germany’s worsening economy:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03/collapse-on-the-eu-home-front.html
She was, by the way, one of the few people to predict the 2008 financial crisis ahead of time.
Fred,
I am sure you took care to check if any of your investment should be adjusted?
…It was a curious experience for me to read TTG’s comments on matters during the last couple of years, which occasionally made painfully clear that for him as SF man having worked in and on the European East, Eastern Europeans mattered a lot more than “Old Europe” ever did, pretty much actually as Bush senior felt? Do I need to add irony alert?
In a way, we have come full circle after two centuries. Ok, maybe only I did. You wouldn’t guess what statement by Pat about the US has been quite a bit on my mind lately.
Yes, occasionally it is pretty shocking to see one or the other price. What? Doubled? Which obviously is exploited occasionally too in a “capitalist” society. But there we go.
Glenn Greenwald, interviewing German political icon Sahra Wagenknecht, loved by one or the other in SST’s comment section over the years too:
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/sahra-wagenknecht-on-the-ukraine
Our policy is only following the United States. The United States is the only one that benefits from this war. Their arms industry benefits, their gas industry benefits, and their energy companies benefit because they can finally sell their fracking gas to Europe. And they will benefit from new investments. The U.S. is suddenly much cheaper and better than Europe because energy prices are very high here. The U.S. also benefits geostrategically. NATO is making a huge comeback. NATO was declared “brain-dead” by French President Macron just a few years ago, but now no one is questioning NATO anymore. That also means that no one is questioning the leadership of the United States. NATO is the primary tool of US dominance, and German politics fully supports it; in particular, a large part of the left, particularly the Greens, supports this position to an extreme…
LeaNder,
SURE bonds are running at a deep discount. No idea about those Ukrainian war bonds as they can’t be bothered to translate their website into English.
Not directly related but today a kamikaze drone destroyed a RF military helicopter in Transnitria. Is it all about election day?
F&L
The Ukrainians and the Brits are trying very hard to escalate this war. Transnistria is an easy target. Completely isolated. 1st they try with an economic blockade and now they started blowing stuff up.
Western media will of course ignore these provocations until Russia responds and then it will be all over the news.
Russian aggression on Moldova !!!!!
F&L,
That RF military helicopter was a rusty junker without a windshield. I think somebody is just looking for publicity, a disgruntled Transnistrian or a false flag attempt.
…”from Germany’s ruling coalition voted in the European Parliament”…
And that means… what, exactly?
Such a vote is not binding on Scholz even if every member of the European Parliament voted “Yes” on the matter.
And, regardless, I was under the impression that the plan put to Scholz was that Germany supplied Taurus missiles to the BRITISH, allowing the latter to free up what remains of their (much shorter range) Storm Shadows for Zelensky.
And even that has been categorically ruled out by Scholz, unless he has flipped all over his previous flop.
Wouldn’t put it past him, to be honest, but if he does flip-flop again it won’t be because the European Parliament told him to.
We really have entered Whacky-World on steroids if that sclerotic bunch of clowns have any influence on anything of importance.
As you say, I think that assertions that Russia is losing the logistics war are not only premature but dangerously misleading. I get that there is an information war going on, but this should not be used as an excuse to publish delusional pieces that harm the Ukrainian cause. Reality is that Ukraine is facing a very difficult year ahead and will require every bit of material support to survive through the year. Downplaying the severity of the situation is counterproductive at this point as it can be used as an excuse to delay much needed aid.
Crimea will play a minimal role in the forthcoming operations, Russians have largely completed a rail line along the Sea of Azov (https://military.news/russian-ambitions-unveiled-500-kilometer-coastal-railway-raises-concerns-in-ukraine/) that provides logistical support for their troops in Kherson, making Crimean bridge an irrelevant distraction.
My expectation is that Russian summer operations will be two-pronged. A major push in Kharkiv/Sumy regions to create a border buffer zone and further stretch the front line and a main offensive centered on Donetsk. Capture of Avdiivka not only pierced Ukrainian Donetsk defense line, but also unlocked Donetsk as a staging ground for troops and materiel, much like Kharkiv is for Ukraine.
Unfortunately, delays in providing aid for Ukraine by both US and EU already created force generation issues, brigades that participated in lats year’s counteroffensive are still depleted and I doubt that five new brigades planned for this year are combat capable. So Ukraine is going into the summer with a reduced force and potential political conflict as Zelensky’s popularity and legitimacy decline. It’s a critical situation and I give Ukraine a 50/50 chance of making it into 2025.
Wishful thinking.
It’s just about Tartous, nothing to do with war in ukraine.
Tartous can be supplied by plane anyways.
Targeting Russian refineries is interesting but 80% of them are beyond range of ukrainian drones.
And Russian refining capacity has been in surplus since 2019.
Aleksander –
That 80% figure you cite is debatable. Babelthuap below claims Russia has 25 refineries. Wiki says 22 in European Russia and nine trans-Urals, and based on the location of those 31 I would opine that perhaps only half are out of range. Definitely not 80%. I’ve seen another claim on twitter that they have 32. But even refineries out of range to drones launched from Ukraine are vulnerable to small drones launched near the refineries by partisans.
What are your figures – how many refineries are there – what range do you attribute to Ukraine’s drones? Sources?
Russia has 25 oil refineries. It’s not a big deal. What is a big deal is Europe suffering economically without cheap energy. With Nuland being passed over for promotion the word is a shift is unfolding. Slowly back away from Ukraine and leave Europe holding the bag then hard pivot to the CCP. Unfortunately that will also fail. It will only make Russia and the CCP and their friends stronger.
Those who support Ukraine seem to make two arguments:
1. Ukraine is a victim of Russian aggression
2. Despite that, Ukraine is doing a good job of creating effective ways to counter the aggression and further punish Russia.
Maybe I’m reading between the lines,
but the implication I get is that Ukraine is a wonderful country whose only problems are due to Russia.
But let’s recall a little history.
Back in 2014-16, Ukraine sucked up $3 billion in loan guarantees, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer.
https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/sep-30-2016-usaid-announces-us-issuance-1-billion-loan-guarantee-government-ukraine
Keith Harbaugh,
Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe and may still hold that title. By 2014 Ukraine also led the list for most corrupt countries. It was this corruption that spurred the Orange Revolution and the Maidan Revolution. Cleaning up that corruption was also a prime motivator of all those right wing ultra-nationalists. Corruption was so bad that a hell of a lot of the Ukrainian military equipment was sold off by 2014. Since then, they’ve come a long way in judicial reforms, but still have a ways to go. The war and martial law is actually helping to root out some of the remaining corruption. That, Ukraine, a basket case only a few years ago, is still resisting Putin’s invasion is a miracle and must be eating at Putin every day.
Martial law helps root out whose corruption? Nuland’s cookies and our $5 billion were just priming the pump of integrity in government? Thanks for the Monday insight on how to reform government.
It is easy to mistake “cleaning up corruption” with just having an issue with who is the beneficiary of the corruption. Considering it is 2024 and Ukraine is still the most corrupt country in Europe it would seem the issue in 2014 was not corruption, rather who was benefitting from it.
What you really just said is that Germany is nowhere close to having the resources they would need to fight a real war with Russia, and nowhere close to having the manufacturing capacity to build up what they need. Honestly, the Ukrainians have done the West a huge favor by exposing this systemic problem in nearly all the members of NATO (with the possible exception of the US).
You’re special, TTG, allowing a no holds barred debate while holding very positive views of your own. The SST tradition continues. The Colonel ran a unique site to which, as a latecomer pilgrim and a straggler at that, I was permitted to chip in and still can. Thanks for that. Debate at this level is scarcely common on the internet.
I do miss the Colonel’s irascibility. One was always a hair’s breadth away from being banned or told off and that lent a certain edge to submitting comments. I remember daring to submit one comment, towards the unexpected end to his life, in which I argued that this war had gone beyond the rights and wrongs of it. It’s now more a question of which side is going to win.
For me, the answer to that question has been written in stone since February 2022. With no military knowledge worth a rush – as you know! – it seemed “obvious” to me that we’d bitten off more than we could chew. I couldn’t see the sanctions war getting anywhere and that being the case, the military war was the equivalent of watching a truck collide with a bicycle. Who ever heard of a war being won with this disparity of forces, and with the enemy able to destroy rear facilities at will while not being able to do the same to him?
And though, for all the talk, the US has plenty of muscle to bring to the combat, it can’t deploy it here. If it did it’d go nuclear. As for the Europeans, there was material enough coming out well before 2022 – the German Inspector General’s report for a start – that showed that European NATO was a paper tiger.
Hell, not even that. A paper poodle. Turns out the UK forces are the best of the lot, in that we do have a serious operational capacity and can still deploy effectively outside the home country; but when you discover that even we can only send half an armoured brigade out that puts it in perspective. Small but beautiful doesn’t cut it in serious continental ground combat and if the rest can’t manage even that then we’re reliant solely on bluster.
So I argued that with the US effectively out of it in this region – yes, I know, ISR and technical help is there but that doesn’t suffice – and the Euros never in it, this war should be stopped before we do in real truth fight it to the last Ukrainian. I do believe that view is gaining ground in the US, so all that’s really happening now is that we’re watching the bodies piling up while the politicians cast around desperately for some means of saving face.
That’s how it’s been since the failure of the sanctions war in March/April 2022. Should we still be encouraging this monstrous carnival of death, merely because the politicians don’t know how to get out of the mess they’ve taken us and the Ukrainians into?
EO,
Yes, TTG is remarkable in his tolerance for diverse perspectives and opinions. These discussions will always have a way of pointing closer to the truth, for the objective reader, by the end of the fray that might develop.
Other forums covering the same topics have devolved into echo chambers and those who offer a counter opinion are banned. LJ’s Sonar21 is such a site. So is Martyanov’s place. Neocon sites do the same as well. These places remind me of stupid angry mobs. The chief rabble rouser gets on stage and shouts slogans and propaganda and the crowd responds with “Amen!” and then follows with approved chants while shaking pitchforks and waving lit torches. Not a lot of thinking going on.
Eric Newhill
I agree with both you and EO one hundred percent.
I might be more sympathetic to Sonar21 and Martyanov but the quality of discussions that they host are vastly inferior to the discussions here. Vastly inferior.
TTG exhibits a hand just strong enough to keep the discussions here civil and well informed.
EN: “…The chief rabble rouser gets on stage and shouts slogans and propaganda and the crowd responds with “Amen!” and then follows with approved chants while shaking pitchforks and waving lit torches. Not a lot of thinking going on.”
Sounds like a current US Presidential campaign…lol
EO,
The sanctions war is going swimmingly. How is Germany’s economy with higher priced natural gas? Who launched the Houthis into action and what’s that sanction done to Europe’s economy? The US has plenty of muscle to bring? You’re trying too hard with that one.
Fred – don’t think I was shooting a line about US military muscle!.
The Russians held back the bulk of their troops and equipment in case NATO came in directly. They are reinforcing their western border heavily in response to the NATO threat in that area.
So they must think NATO’s got some muscle somewhere and since it’s not ours it must be yours.
As for the German economy, NS2 remains in working order. Filled with “technical gas” whatever that is and ready to go. They had a very good cheap long term contract for piped gas from Russia but I don’t know whether that contract can be switched over to the new pipeline.
Probably an academic question. The politicians would lose face if they used an NS2 pipeline. Like his predecessor all that time ago, when Barbarossa Scholz commits his country to felo de se he does it in style.
EO,
The Russians complied with Russian law regarding troop movement. I don’t know what technical gas but you sure put out some hot air if you think that the German economy is in good working order.
One pipeline only though. The Martians or somebody knocked out the rest. Please do not enquire further. It’s not a subject we talk about in the Heimat. Ever.
EO,
Everyone talks about the gas for use in heating and energy. However, it’s also important for creating fertilizer for farm crops. No fertilizer = famine. The Euros seem to hate farmers and want to limit fertilizer use. So there might be a link here.
IMO, the war in Ukraine (e.g. bad Ruskies invaded a sovereign country!) is a distraction from something much bigger and infinitely more critical – and Russia is on the side of right and the Euro/globalists are antihuman and on the side of massed evil.
Eric Newhill
That is the prevailing view among the pro-Z crowd. A more/most disturbing possibility is covered well by Riley Waggaman (formerly of RT) on his Substack – for example in this piece:
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/yes-russia-is-complicit-in-the-great
The Z-doomer community is a small niche and if you are interested, pretty much the rest of it is here:
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com
Barbara Ann,
Russia, like China, is intent on establishing full control over her citizens with full surveillance far beyond what the globalists are dreaming about.
Eric Newhill,
As of last year, the EU was importing a hell of a lot of fertilizer from Russia. Sanctions affect fertilizer production owned by sanctioned Russian oligarchs, but not fertilizer in general
TTG
Oh the dreams of the globalists in the West are every bit as dystopian, but yes, I’ve no illusions about Chinese and Russian plans for absolute totalitarian control too. The prospects of being enslaved and transhumanized in a multi-polar world or a uni-polar one are equally unappealing and the enemies of this future everywhere are my friends.
TTG,
The Euros are buying fertilizer from Russia? But not oligarch fertilizer? Well, ok. That’s some interesting hair splitting. Fertilizer is produced from natural gas. Who owns the natural gas in Russia? Also, fertilizer costs in Euro-dummy land have increased sharply. At the same time the Euro-dummies are attacking their own farmers’ ability to produce. Then there is global warming hysteria and the economic damage that it creates.
That would all be simply bizarre and best understood as a sign of mental retardation and suicidal tendencies among the Euros’ leadership, except that it lines up perfectly with the ravings of snotty globalist elites like Gates, the UN, The WHO and the WEC who think we need to reduce the population dramatically.
Let’s put some cards on the table. China and Chinese and Russia funded NGOs (fair translation = BRICS bakish takers) are taking over Panama and other countries in that region. They are directly behind the the wave of illegal immigration into the US. There can be no doubt about it. The evidence is overwhelming. The Chinese and Russians are all over Africa, the MENA, everywhere. The US is like a monobrowed cretin deer who has tied his own left front leg to his right hind leg as he stands paralyzed in the headlights in Ukraine. Why fight there when the BRICS and UN are invading our country with millions of non-American every year. Ukraine is side show for dinosaurs stuck in the tarpit of Cold War memories – except they’re not even good at that. At least during the Cold War we understood influence/psychological ops/spies/terrorist threats, etc. to our country. Now we just label patriots/veterans as terrorists and deny that any foreigners could be up to any of that.
Getting back to illegal immigration. The US cannot absorb that many poor, uneducated, jobless people. This is not the good old days when some acceptable number of wetbacks helped with cheap sh!t labor and the US economy benefitted. Nope. This is destabilizing levels of immigration. On top of that, there are indeed large numbers of Islamic terrorists and Chinese military operatives among the border invaders. Only a fool or lair can possibly deny that. Even the FBI is talking about Iranian a-holes being here and recruiting more religion of peace apes to assassinate Trump an his administration. People on the terrorist watch list have been picked up at the border. It’s a regular event.
But but…look over there… poor noble Ukraine!
Constant terrorist attacks on top of the the purely economic destabilization by tens of million of third world illegals = an order of magnitude of destabilization of our country in just about all sectors of the economy, public services and cultural cohesion. The Chinese make it even worse because of cyber attacks and god knows what else they could be up to. I know you understand all of this because you were trained to and to do it. So please don’t try to tell me it’s nothing and hand wave it away – or like Barbara Ann basically call it a “doomer” cult perspective. It’s exactly what you/ the US govt would do to a foreign country in its sights.
The Chinese are freaking everywhere with their belt and road world domination crap. They are also everywhere with their info/psychological operations. They have been working to demoralize the US and make it vulnerable to collapse. I know that you understand those techniques as well. Col Lang certainly did. We have asshats right here on this forum that will never say a bad word about Hamas, China or Russia, but condemn the US and allies as evil colonizers, etc, etc. These useful idiots (or actual agents?), prolific in our society now, label anyone who points to the real enemy as being a racist etc. The Nazis tried, albeit lamely, this same approach of divide and conquer with blacks and American Indians circa WW2. It’s an obvious approach. The Chinese and, to a lesser degree, the Russians, have been much more effective and have a longer term implementation beginning in the 1960s. It’s working. Half the country hates themselves and the country. Again, you know how this works and you’re playing awfully coy with the reality. I don’t understand why.
Anyhow, in light of what is happening, yes, Ukraine is a side show; a distraction.
Barbara Ann,
I’m not one of those. I am an American Patriot. Good on Russia for resisting the globalists’/UN’s machinations. I understand their piggybacking on the evil plans of the damn CCP/Han – who are using the UN/globalists as useful idiots. At least the Russians are going in with eyes wide open.
The US government is populated by self-serving pigs and traitors. Those people hate Russia for resisting – and there is an opportunity to make a quick buck from the bakshish flow. The US citizenry is rapidly becoming foreign born and brainwashed moron lefties who blame the people the built this place for their perceived lack. They are easily convinced (by, ultimately, China behind the curtains) to tear up the Constitution and take what the hard working real Americans have earned. Re-educate or kill those they have taken from.
Btw, real, hard working Americans has nothing to do with skin color. It has to do with morals, commitment, duty, honor, ethics, beliefs and loyalty to the Constitution and what is embodied within it.
Barbara,
concerning the “Z crowd”, I like the coinage: are you familiar with Costa Gavras’ movie? I wonder what Russia/Putin’s men had in mind, when they choose the label. Zero?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z_(1969_film)
But mainly: You seem to be quite well-informed about all the diverse niche productions–for lack of the appropriate term–in the alternative “great reset” theory field.
Could you introduce the nitwits among us to the main groups in the larger field of alternative “great reset” discussions? The main experts? Leaders? The ones one should definitive read on matters?
Top experts on the Liberal/Communist World Order Takeover? Same thing? UN? Same thing as “reset”?
The Nazis tried, albeit lamely, this same approach of divide and conquer with blacks and American Indians circa WW2.
Eric, I would like to know what you have in mind here. Nazis refers to American Nazis here?
Leander,
Nazis refers to your former government – or probably your parents.
Many European policy makers have decided that it is very important to stop Russia’s aggression before it reaches them. Today that vehicle is supporting Ukraine and they have been doing better than expected. I am reasonably sure that the Putin fans around here will not be consulted in this matter. It also appears that Russia has multiple problems in their military and economy that will only get worse as they have to spend increasing amounts on their military. As with all dictatorships, there are weaknesses that can cause them to implode rather quickly, as the communists there found out.
Everyone can see what is happening to the west. The era of luxury, laziness and gluttony is closing. Ukraine thought they were going to get in the system but unfortunately last one in is a rotten egg.
The plan was to flood west with wage slaves to keep the party going a little longer. Good on paper but in order to accommodate them standards had to be lowered. This lowering has created an even bigger problem; intellectual powering down. It likely won’t get as bad as the 1,000 year drought like the fall of Rome where nobody knew how to make an aqueducts or much of anything else but things could get pretty bad.
babelthuap, private question, if I may.
I wonder for longer now, if you were the one that was somewhat connected in whatever way to an autistic kid?
If so. No!!! I shouldn’t be doing this! Anyway is so: how is “it”/ the kid doing, after all these years?
Sorry: Have to get this connection out of my synapses.
I’m not sure if I am autistic but if so it has worked out remarkably well for me.
Great response. 😉 Thanks. It felt my memory serves me wrong.
The name was similarly cryptic for me as babelthuap on first sight. But I forget. 😉
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babeldaob#History
Two million “found” arty Outhouse cannon shells found by the check o Slovakians
For two billion pieces of gold And now it’s 5000 ski rounds a day dialed in until next new years And 50,000 blooming drones buzz bangs Hundred pounders And Oh No Joe found stuff too 300 million bucks worth And you know summer’s coming like a giant wreck that shuts down California Fony Freeways and drug dealers for six months Lite up sergeant major and we will write a song abound the Zdeath of a Drunk Bear by the Wolfhound attack Wave that ram rod Boys Things will be Hot Shredded underwear hot
I am just curious:
Do any of you have an opinion on how well the being-retired A-10 Warthog
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/03/18/largest-number-of-10s-yet-could-be-headed-boneyard-air-force-shifts-strategy-and-aircraft.html
would do against the Russian air defenses in Ukraine?
Keith Harbaugh,
That was one of Colonel Lang’s first suggestions two years ago, an AVG consisting of retired Warthog pilots flying A-10s turned over to a private company. The A-10 would certainly be as survivable as the Frogfoot. With the latest upgrades, the A-10 would probably be very effective. However, they would still be flying in contested airspace.