“Vladimir Putin’s air force is now flying just “tens of missions” a day after losing more than 60 aircraft and coming under continued threat from Ukraine’s air defences, British defence chiefs said on Monday.
They believe that Russian air attacks will remain limited as winter deepens.
In its latest intelligence update, the Minstry of Defence in London said: “In recent months, the number of sorties conducted by Russian tactical combat aircraft over Ukraine has reduced significantly. Russian aircraft now probably conducts tens of missions per day, compared to a high of up to 300 per day in March 2022.
“Russia has now lost over 60 fixed-wing aircraft in the conflict, likely including an additional Su-24M FENCER fighter-bomber and a Su-25 FROGFOOT ground attack aircraft last week.”
The briefing continued: “The decrease in sorties is likely a result of continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences, limitations on the flying hours available to Russian aircraft, and worsening weather.“
Comment: “All weather” is a relative thing. Pilots know that their chances of survival decrease as the weather gets worse and worse. This is one of the many reasons why artillery is such a friend to the PBI (poor bloody infantry). Artillery shells are not deterred by weather, dark of night, etc.
Ukrainian air defenses? Sure, but I would put my money on the weather being the biggest factor in this. pl
BBC reporting 2 airfields deep inside Russia were hit with 2 explosions. Russian state media stated 3 deaths and 6 injuries at Dyagileva and 2 injured at Engels. Both bases have strategic bombers stationed.
Russian sources saying the attack at Dyagilevo airbase was done by a 40-year old Soviet drone.
Supposedly the Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh (Swift) that the Ukrainians must have upgraded. If true then they must have torn out the old a cameras, infrared & EO imagers, and radars and and put in a warhead in their stead.
Back in March a drone of that type crash landed almost in the center of the Croatian capital.
Before it got there it flew over the airspace of 3 NATO countries.
Either that drone is very sneaky or the air defence of many NATO countries are not very good.
If Ukraine can last until St Patty’s day, year two of war will see drastic changes. NATO “exchanged” jets will be given to Ukraine (yes, I have changed my mind. This is now inevitable and will occur over the dark and cold winter). Add’l ADS will arrive in Ukraine and be set up over the winter. If Russia continues to destroy infra structure in Ukraine Poland may be drawn into Galicia on a “humanitarian” basis. Why not? When Ukraine is subordinated to their Slavic masters Poles, Moldovians, or Slovaks will be next. I understand it is hard to accept that Empire is the reason for this killing in 2022 but there it is, right in front of us. Unless you believe that Putin’s SMO was intended to cleanse Ukraine of any latent Nazi tendencies left over from ’45?
If Poles enter Western Ukraine, they will stay there. Polish imperialistic spirit is as strong as the Russian or Turkish one.
You could be right about Poland staying in “Halycnia”. They have done that before. Who knows, maybe they will combine with Lithuania for 17th century redux? I’d guess western Ukrainians w/b better served under Poles than Russians. That misses the whole point of Ukraine. It wants to be an independent state left alone to go through the universe as; Ukrainians. Every other European pop. group (except the Basques) have their own nation state. Why not Ukrainians?
Basques and Catalans.
Some of the most beautiful classical guitar music comes from Catalonia. Both B n C want their independence. Spain says no. The E.U. says nothing. But you are right, Catalonia also.
The cool way to do it would be to suborn the Russian missile targeting system and redirect a cruise missile strike to hit Russian bases (I doubt that’s what happened, though).
Peter Hug,
There have been instances of Russian AA missiles returning to the launcher like a boomerang and of cruise missiles spontaneously exploding in flight. Don’t know whether that’s from shoddy technology and/or operation or a result of Ukrainian EW.
I’ve seen a few of those. I’m sure the crews find that behavior highly disturbing.
Weather is surely a factor.
An Ukrainian artillery officer gave a wide ranging interview recently in which he expressed an opinion the Russians appear to be running low on pilots who (paraphrased from memory) “…do not just release their payloads from maximum range in the vague direction of the enemy and return to base.” His opinion is they have lots of planes but he is more interested in killing pilots.
At about 50 minutes in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK7Ty3feLMw&t=2s
Mark Logan,
Not only is weather a factor, but the decimation of the better pilots, as you mentioned, as well. They should be rotated to training the next batch of pilots, but they’re left to suffer from combat fatigue and die. Other factors are the lifespan of Russian aircraft. They’re only designed to last so many hours before rebuild. Their maintenance is surely just as shoddy as their logistics and is prone to the same corruption as the rest of their military. Lastly, Ukrainian air defense is getting more effective. Today they downed 60 out of 70 cruise missiles launched mainly at Kyiv. The Gepard is proving its worth not only against drones, but also against cruise missiles. There’s some dramatic footage of a Gepard taking out a cruise missile today.
TTG,
Damn shame nearly everybody except the Germans abandoned the concept if the Gepard in favor of expensive missiles. I suspect there will be a lot of retro-fitted AA Bradleys in our future. Tracer rounds for infantry, perhaps.
I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked to discover the Russian’s general moral problem extends to their pilots. They may be under orders to play it safe though, hard to tell.
Mark Logan,
We royally screwed up the development of the Sergeant York system and ended up with the Stinger-based Avenger as an interim SHORAD system. We at least modified a lot of the Stingers to better address drone threats and added a 50 cal MG. But that solution is pretty sad when you look at it. We clearly dropped the ball with AD for a long time.
We’re just starting to field the new M-SHORAD with a 30mm canon along with Stinger and Hellfire missiles. We’re also developing a laser version of the M-SHORAD to work with the gun/missile version. Germany is also developing the replacement gun system for the Gepard. What truly makes these newer systems effective are the electronics. The Gepard acquisition and targeting radars are still top notch. The newer radar/laser systems are better.
Tracer rounds have never left the infantry. Machine guns always had 1/5 tracer/ball ammunition mix. The old infantry AD tactics of using the machine guns to guide the fire of the riflemen with tracers just has to be taught and practiced a lot more.
TTG,
I was thinking tracers for rifles there. I expect a lot of small UAVs in our future so everybody will have to chip in.
Mark Logan,
The M249 SAW also uses the ball/tracer mix. That’s plenty of tracers to guide mass infantry fire.
TTG,
The guys will adjust their leads on a duck flying at 100mph at 2000 feet AGL a lot faster with tracers. Just sayin’.
Mark Logan,
We were able to shoot down BATS rocket targets at 300-400 knots, but only a few hundred feet AGL with two M-60 machine guns firing the ball/tracer mix and a platoon of 25 to 30 M16A1 rifles. You aim the rifle fire on the tracer stream of the machine guns. With practice, it’s practically muscle memory. Those BATS are still used as training targets for Stingers and Avengers.
I’m picturing more than one occasional target in this. I think it likely, after this conflict, everybody is going to stock up on cheap UAVs.
Mark Logan,
I agree. I can see some kind of anti-UAV weapon becoming part of every platoon’s TO&E. The practice of designating air guards will come back into vogue. The number of Stingers in a brigade or division ADA unit will increase. As a weapons platoon leader, I often controlled a Redeye team and even a Vulcan attached to our infantry company. If I was in the weapons manufacturing business, I’d be developing a lightweight, cheap one-time use anti-drone rocket. Something that would be issued like the LAW once was.
TTG,
That would be nice. What frightens me is the possibility the tactic of overwhelming specialty weapons with swarms we will see squared, or even cubed, in the future.