Russian ICBM fails, goes off course in test

Russia has conducted unsuccessful tests of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a core component of Russia’s land-based strategic nuclear forces, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate or HUR reported on Telegram on Nov. 4. The failed Nov. 1 missile launch from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome to a testing range in Kamchatka was carried out by the 33rd Missile Army of the Russian Federation’s Strategic Missile Forces. The missile deviated from its course, as it did during previous tests of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces on Oct. 25. On the same day, Russia also conducted a test launch of an RSM-56 Bulava ballistic missile from a Borei-class nuclear-powered submarine. That test also failed.

The HUR report indicates that Russia is also facing “serious problems” with the RS-28 Sarmat liquid-fueled, MIRV-equipped super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, which is one of the key projects in the declared process of “modernizing” Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.

Russia has been developing the Sarmat missile since 2009. According to Moscow’s plans, it was supposed to be commissioned in 2018, but the date was constantly postponed until September 2023, after the first and only full-scale test was conducted in April. “In fact, Sarmat is an unfinished, imperfect, raw missile,” the HUR said, comparing the Ukrainian-made RS-20 Voyevoda ICBM and the Sarmat missile, which it said was no better in terms of design, payload, and methods of overcoming missile defenses.

Russia also faces difficulties in improving the air component of its strategic nuclear forces, as part of the modernization of Soviet-made Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers. Current capacity allows only 1-2 aircraft to be overhauled per year. The delivery of new Tu-160M2 strategic bombers, originally scheduled for 2023, has been postponed due to the failure to resume production of the new NK-32 engines, HUR claims, saying that Russia’s challenges are “direct consequences of the civilized world’s sanctions against Moscow” for its war in Ukraine and its inability to produce the necessary components to replace imports.

Comment: Anybody can have a missile launch go haywire. We just had a Minuteman III launch failure ourselves. The Kremlin had a nice laugh at it. They should have kept their mouths shut with two launch failures in one day after another one a week earlier. This doesn’t instill confidence in either of our nuclear missile forces, but Russia seems to have a serious reliability problem. Even at the end of the Soviet Union, their nuclear force was reputed to be solid. It was so solid that Ukraine could not break the codes of the missiles on her territory. And they did try.

In addition to the missiles and the bomber, Putin’s much vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile proved vulnerable to a Ukrainian manned Patriot air defense system. If the Kremlin’s premier weapons are coming up short, imagine what the rest of their MIC is like. In the old days, the commies were true believers who did their best for the motherland. Now they’re all capitalists and cynical, crooked ones at that. They should be able to develop their own top-notch machine tool industry, but I guess there’s no money in that. It’s easier to smuggle what’s needed from the West, fake it and lie to the commissars.


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93 Responses to Russian ICBM fails, goes off course in test

  1. F&L says:

    They are also minus one more kalibr missile launching ship, due to a successful strike on the Kerch shipyard. The smart analysts over there on Telegram say that texts like the one below are actually saying the ship is totally out of action.

    By the way TTG, Nesmiyan says that in his opinion civil conflict in the US is inevitable. You can read it here:
    15 missiles were fired at the shipyard in Kerch, the ship was damaged.
    Ministry of Defense: The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a shipyard in Kerch with cruise missiles.
    Ukraine fired 15 cruise missiles at the Butoma Shipyard in Kerch, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. 13 were shot down. One of the missiles hit the ship that was at the factory.

    • F&L says:
      Russia is losing the Black Sea Fleet – 3 scenarios for the near future
      Yesterday’s attack on Kerch only confirmed the trend – the Ukrainian Armed Forces are systematically knocking out the Black Sea Fleet. If serious measures are not taken, the situation will worsen. To understand: the largest loss of the Russian fleet during the Northern Military District – the flagship cruiser Moskva was lost and sank in April last year. This happened near Zmeiny Island.
      Then there were attacks on ships in the ports of Berdyansk, Sevastopol and now Kerch. Yes, alas, there were cases when the enemy launched strikes in Novorossiysk Bay, but then we were talking about sea drones. This time rockets arrived in Kerch. And not alone. The small missile ship Askold was hit at the dock of the Zaliv shipyard. Sources confirm that it is unlikely that the ship will be restored. It was lucky that there were no Calibers on board, otherwise the dock could have been seriously destroyed.
      In this regard, we talked with a source in the leadership of the Black Sea Fleet. He drew us three scenarios for what would happen next.
      👉👉👉 The Russian Armed Forces will cover the sky and protect ships on the water, at least in the bay of Sevastopol. But then there is a question about the effectiveness of their work, because a ship is valuable at sea, and not in the port.
      👉👉👉 The command will withdraw part of the fleet and leave several dozen key ships in Crimea. In particular, the most valuable things will be taken to Novorossiysk.
      👉👉👉 Russia will completely withdraw its fleet to Novorossiysk and other ports. This will allow us to preserve at least those ships that are currently in combat-ready condition.
      According to the interlocutor, the withdrawal of the fleet from Crimea may not be an ideal decision, but a forced one. After all, Ukraine is gradually removing expensive ships. A separate question is why air defense systems cannot fully protect the peninsula.
      “We were promised that command posts, docks and other important fleet facilities would be closed. But when rockets arrive one after another, what is there to talk about? Have they taken everything to Moscow again? There were rumors that the capital would be closed before the New Year, but why at the expense of Crimea again?” the officer is perplexed.

    • Yeah, Right says:

      F&L The corvette was in drydock undergoing maintenance so, by definition, it was already “out of action” when it came under attack.

      The extent of its damage is unknown, because AFAIK nobody has released satellite images of the aftermath (which, to be honest, tells a story in itself).

      But even if it were a complete write-off the effect on the Black Sea Fleet would be minimal: these corvettes are so small (around 800 tonnes) that they can traverse the Russian canal system i.e. the damaged ship can be replaced by a sister ship from the Baltic Fleet without needing Turkey’s permission.

      • F&L says:

        Thanks. That’s good to hear. So I guess it indicates they can hit objects with accuracy near the bridge. I did see a photo of the ship this morning, finally, but it wasn’t of high enough quality to be of much value.

        • Yeah, Right says:

          They’ve long been able to hit objects with accuracy that far and, indeed, a few days after the shipyard came under attack the bridge itself was targeted.

          All the missiles were shut down.

          Somes like the Russians have the measure of Storm Shadow.

          As for the ship itself, the two photos I’ve seen so far don’t tell us much, except that the ship is still afloat (I assumed it had been in dry-dock but, no, it wasn’t).

          There is a dark spot in the photos (talk of “soot” in one article) but it has to be remembered that this is a 800 ton ship, and it’s supposed to have been hit by a Storm Shadow that has a 900lb warhead.

          I’m no naval expert, but I would have thought that a hit by that big of a warhead would obliterate such a little ship. I think the Russian claim that it was hit by fragments is quite credible.

          In terms of its military impact, well, zero. The ship wasn’t in for maintenance, as I had thought. It is so new that it hadn’t even been commissioned yet.

          Kudos for the Ukrainians for trying but, honestly, the are making a big thing about something that has no impact on the war.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            It’s more than soot on that ship. There’s some dockside photos of considerable damage and a video of three strikes that apparently hit the dock rather than the ship. I’d say radars and electronics are trashed at least.


          • Yeah, Right says:

            Are, OK, thanks. I hadn’t seen those photos.

            Hmm. Does look like it was a significant hit, though obviously not fatal.

            Even the larger of the two explosions looks to me to be too small for a 450kg warhead against an unarmored vessel but, again, I’m not a naval expert.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            I don’t think any of the hits were direct. It appears they hit the dock very close to the ship.

          • F&L says:

            See for yourself. Video at link. French missiles.
            Footage of French SCALP missiles hitting the Russian ship Askold, which was located at a ship repair yard in Kerch, appeared online. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the hit on the ship, but stated that 13 out of 15 missiles were shot down.
            The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolai Oleshchuk, made it clear that French SCALP missiles were used for the shelling. “Well done, it’s like SCAL passed through it!” — he addressed the tactical aviation pilots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

            Subscribe to the channel

          • leith says:

            Appears to have hit just to port of the eight Vertical Launch cells for Kalibr or Oniks missiles. You can see the Ukrainian strike hit in the first few seconds of the video link below. Those VLS cells were undoubtedly empty or the Askold would be underwater. But even so it’s never going to sea gain IMO.


            @OSINTtechnical claims it was multiple hits. I only saw the one. But I’m not tech savvy enough to slow down these internet videos? Is there an easy way to do that?

          • Yeah, Right says:

            “I don’t think any of the hits were direct. It appears they hit the dock very close to the ship.”

            That does make more sense.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            leith: “But even so it’s never going to sea gain IMO.”

            My understanding is that it hasn’t made it to sea at all. It was still fitting out, which is why it was a sitting duck.

            Still, don’t write it off: that Russian landing ship that was supposed to have been toasted last month is now out of drydock and is having its superstructure rebuilt.

            Seems that these Russian ships are tougher than people are giving them credit.

          • leith says:

            Yeah Right –

            Time will tell whether it’s possible for the Askold to rejoin the fleet. But even if the hull is sound she will need a new superstructure plus possibly some repairs in the engine room. Accomplishing that during wartime will not be easy in a shipyard that is still subject to attacks. By the way, it was launched two years ago in September 2021. The delay has been in testing not in fitting out. Although they’ve probably had to repair or replace a few things due to test issues and waiting for parts from the shipyard in St Petersburg or from subcontractors.

            Regarding your comment “that Russian landing ship that was supposed to have been toasted last month is now out of drydock and is having its superstructure rebuilt.”
            Are you speaking of the Minsk?
            If so then as far as I know she is a stripped down hulk. I’ve heard suggestions that they may cannibalize the Konstantin Olshansky (ex-Ukrainian Navy BDK-56), including engines in order to rebuild her.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Minsk is not a stripped-down hulk.

            That would imply the machinery space and hull-void is gutted, which is absolutely not the case.

            The superstructure of the Minsk was hit, so they’ve removed that superstructure and will then rebuild it or replace it with a donor superstructure from a decommissioned sister ship.

            But the hull, the machinery, and all the rest is afaik completely intact. Certainly the hull is intact because it has already been floated out of drydock.

          • leith says:

            Yeah Right –

            Your estimates and mine about the condition of the Minsk (and the Askold) are guesstimates, nothing more. Whether they can be rebuilt and refloated to join the fleet, or are nothing but scrap are outcomes we cannot know beforehand. Contact me next year on their status.

        • aleksandar says:

          Moscow time is not russian and even not in Moscow.
          A MI6/CIA assets funded by US taxpayers.

          • TTG says:


            It was in Moscow until 2020 when it was chased out by the Kremlin’s propaganda laws. It was founded and largely run by a Dutchman living in Moscow until 2020. First catering to English speakers in Moscow, it’s since become more of a dissident site.

  2. d74 says:

    Very good news.
    Nuclear disarmament has begun on both sides. The Russians are in the lead, two to one.
    Carry on.

  3. walrus says:

    TTG, where do you get your information about Russias machine tool industry? I am not aware of its performance. I do know that the machine shops of the American MIC are populated with Japanese and European machine tools.

    These days we can machine hardened steel at stratospheric metal removal rates and produce a mirror finish while doing it with extraordinary precision. Even the lead screws are water cooled.

    By the way, machine tools and the cutting tools they use are the very core of any nations industrial capability. It’s comforting to watch the videos put out by these guys linked below, who are the very core of Americas REAL industrial might. This is where the rubber meets the road.

    • TTG says:


      Europe (Germany) and Japan are the leading world producers of high end machine tools. China is also way up there in production, but primarily for domestic use. I read a good article a few days ago. If I find it, I’ll post a link.

      My father was a tool maker at Pratt & Whitney Aircraft and several other smaller shops. One of my brothers followed in his footsteps through an apprenticeship at Pratt & Whitney. He started his own machine repair company repairing those high end machines up and down the east coast. He’s the rich one in the family. I worked in a few machine shops when young to earn college money. They were US built machines back then, at least the precision screw machines and injection molding machines were. This was before the advent of CNC.

      • walrus says:

        I always lusted after a Bridgeport universal mill……

        In my previous life I was familiar with GE engines – the F404 and T700, many of the parts were produced on Japanese machines. I actually met Gerhard Neumann at Lynne.

        We did work for PW, GE., etc. – jet engines componentry, mostly rings,forged out of impossible to work alloys (hastelloy, etc.) in thin sections that distort if you even look at them, let alone machine them. They bring tears to the eyes of all but the best machinists.

    • F&L says:

      Walrus –
      The Ru machine tool sector became an imported machine tool sector so it has serious trouble due to sanctions. I’m not sure if it’s entirely nonexistent but from some coverage I read of their trouble making the fancy newer tanks or even updating their old ones it didn’t sound sufficient to their needs. Another real basic “pedal to the metal” element which is sagging badly involves the industries which provide the chemicals, fabrication facilities and so forth for industrial casting – in all it’s aspects, from small injection-molded components to the actual molds for engine blocks. It’s the smaller components they were having most trouble with, last I read. Wish I still had the link, there are some detailed discussions about it in Russian which show thorough technical understanding of the subjects involved and their present obstacles, which sounded non-trivial to a layman such as myself.

      • TTG says:


        A lot of the CNC and high end machine tools in Russia are imported from Germany. Much to the chagrin of the US, some of those German companies are still providing updates to the CNC machines.

    • Peter Hug says:

      Let’s not forget the machining fluids either. I grew up in Cincinnati, and a bunch of my friends had parents who worked at Milacron, or LeBlond (then LeBlond Makino, now just Makino); I was classmates with some of the Geiers. I’ve formulated metalworking fluids for nearly 25 years, first at Master Chemical in Perrysburg, and since 2005 at my company in Toledo, both on a contract basis for a bunch of companies as well as for myself to build a formulary that I have gradually begun to sell as its own product line. Machining (OK, manufacturing generally) is one of those deceptively fascinating fields that keeps sucking you back in, every time you think you’ve found something else to do.

      And if you’re ever in Vermont, go see the American Precision Museum in Windsor, where you can see Bridgeport Mill Serial number…1!

  4. F&L says:

    Mental nihilism or illness. See the video at link of the “Shaman” singer hitting the red nuclear button at a performance yesterday. ‘Nauseatingly cringe’ is maybe the best you can say. Everyone says he’s fitted up to look like an Aryan psycho from the 30’s-40’s. This is presumably “anti-nazi” propaganda? A typical comment on the “Uncle Slava” channel is:
    ⏳THE PRODUCER OF THE SHAMAN NEEDS to be checked by the FSB, if the shaman doesn’t have enough brains of his own, then the idiot… who makes such setups for him is definitely doing it for a reason, WHAT SHOULD PRESS THE RED BUTTON WITH THE SLOGAN I’M RUSSIAN ???? That the Russians are ready to destroy the whole world??? And what should this cause in normal people??? I am Russian and I will arrange a third world war???? SERIOUSLY ???? WHAT IS THIS BASTARDSHIP????⏳

    Well, it’s not even a fraction as nauseating as what goes on in Gaza, it sure isn’t.
    If propaganda and calls for nuclear war come from a true Aryan, then this is just a performance. No more. Threats of a nuclear strike from an official who is drunk but in office is simply a personal position. Calls for mass physical extermination of Russian citizens on the basis of disagreement with the president’s line are not calls for genocide, but merely freedom of speech and an expression of the position of a State Duma deputy.
    It is not surprising that modern Russia is perceived as a crazy psychopath and is fenced off from it. Somehow you conduct your own experiments over your Siberia, and we will look at your zoo from afar.
    To be normal has not been the goal of the Russian government for a long time. Yes, in fact, her own concept of the norm has long since shifted. When there are people in power who are headed to the grave in a few years simply by virtue of physiology, they are scared. And they want to take as many alive as possible with them.

  5. Yeah, Right says:

    Far be it for me to cast doubt on the motives and methods of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate, but has there been any announcement from the Russian Defense Ministry?

    A missile test from “Plesetsk Cosmodrome to a testing range in Kamchatka” would take the flight over the water north of Japan, so any such test would be preceded by at least a Notice to Airmen, and probably also a Notice to Mariners.

    Is there any evidence of such notices prior to these tests?

    I’ve found this article:

    That relates to an October 23 drill of Russian strategic forces, and it was reported that a Yars ICBM was fired from Plesetsk, a Sineva ICBM was fired from a sub, and a Tu-95 fired cruise missiles.

    So I assume those were the tests that the HUR is referring to unless, of course, you know of others?

    According to that article: “The Kremlin said in a statement that all tasks set for the exercise were fulfilled and all the missiles that were test-fired reached their designated targets.”


    “They should have kept their mouths shut with two launch failures in one day after another one a week earlier.”

    Or, so says the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate but, well, they would say that, wouldn’t they?

    The Russians says otherwise.

    What does the US Department of Defense say?

    Because in the case of a deadlock like this I’m perfectly happy for them to act as tie-breaker.

    Are you?

    • TTG says:

      Yeah, Right,

      I don’t think the DoD has commented on these latest tests. They did comment on the SARMAT test failure back when Biden last visited Kyiv. They were aware of it in real time through monitoring and communications between the Kremlin and Washington, but didn’t publicly announce it right away. They did comment on Russian missile failures in Ukraine.

      “WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) – The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.”

      • Yeah, Right says:

        Biden’s visit to Kyiv was in February 20 2023.

        He couldn’t possibly have commented on missile tests conducted eight months later unless Future-Biden and Mr Peabody have access to a Wayback Machine.

        Plus, I do need to point out that your last sentence and quote is a non-sequitur unless, of course, you wish to argue that the Russians have been firing Yars ICBM’s at Ukrainian forces.

        That would seem a bit….. excessive….. not to mention rather alarming.

        • TTG says:

          Yeah, Right,

          You have a real problem with reading comprehension. Russia tested a SARMAT while Biden was visiting Kyiv back in February. That test failed. DoD acknowledged the failure once Biden returned from Ukraine. That failure was in addition to the more recent failures. No need for a Wayback Machine.

          The DoD assessed 60% failure rate was for the missiles Russia did launch at Ukraine. That includes Kinzhals, Kh-101s, Kh-59s and others. No SARMATs. No Yars.

    • F&L says:

      Good comment. I’d say the host here errs on the side of making a naive reader think that the Russians are kaput and there’s nothing to fear from them. That’s dangerously to suicidally untrue. They still retain plenty of devastating punch in their legacy nuke triad. The takeaway should be that due to sanctions and corruption and a series of terrible decisions in their military reform – that their remaining weapon systems are increasingly unreliable and over the course of time will become more unreliable, but mainly – that their programs for replacing their weapon systems with modernized ones are in a state somewhere between dodgy and perilous. Understanding that and the subtle differences is key to the Pentagon’s take-it-slow approach to simply bottling them up, attriting and gradually watching from thousands of miles away as they incrementally unravel in those war fighting domains.

      • TTG says:


        You’ve pulled the message I intended to send from the article. In fact, you’ve explained it quite well. Of course a few missile failures do not indicate the collapse of Putin’s would be new Russian empire. It does mean there are cracks in the walls and some mold in the corners in Russia’s military house. Much like the Kinzhal, which has proven to be plenty vulnerable to intercept, it remains a formidable and dangerous weapon.

      • English Outsider says:

        “The takeaway should be that due to sanctions and corruption and a series of terrible decisions in their military reform – that their remaining weapon systems are increasingly unreliable and over the course of time will become more unreliable, but mainly – that their programs for replacing their weapon systems with modernized ones are in a state somewhere between dodgy and perilous.”


        Here’s the problem, F&L. That type of statement can’t be disputed in most places that count in the West. Certainly not in political or media circles. Probably not even in most academic circles. Dispute on such matters is verboten.

        This is because agreeing or disagreeing with that statement is taken as a loyalty test. If you agree with it then you’re on the team. If you don’t you’re a Putin apologist and disloyal.

        So the journalists and analysts have to be on message and agree with such statements. It’s then their job to put such statements out. Not because such statements are true or false but because they are judged on whether they pass the loyalty test.

        This wholesale corruption of journalistic and analytical standards accounts for the failure visible all over the West to arrive at a realistic assessment of our and Russian comparative military strength.

        It accounts for the failure to assess Russian actions. For any assessment of Russian actions that attributes rational or honest intention to the Russians fails the loyalty test. The Russians must be devious and imperialistic and any analysis that does not accord with that message is disployal.

        But any cock and bull nonsense that works off the assumption that the Russians are evil is approved without inspection. As long as it passes the loyalty test it is “true” and may be disseminated and acted upon.

        Which is why most of us in the West live in an entirely unrealistic world when it comes to assessing the conflict with Russia. A world that does not accord with reality.

        Fairly soon the unrealistic world our journalists and analysts have constructed for us on that basis will collide with the world as it truly is. When that happens we’ll be indignant. Disbelieving. And entirely unable to cope.

        That’s the price we’ll pay for having allowed ourselves to become corrupted and accepting as a matter of course corruption in our journalists and analysts.


        Incidentally, that statement italicised above. You are being satirical, I take it?

        • F&L says:

          Not entirely EO, no. Are you, on the other hand, a believer in their nuclear powered cruise missile which can fly for .. let me see .. 10 years without refueling while circling the earth .. or was it 100 or only 2 years? It can stop by at Piccadilly Circus for tea and crumpets and even sunbathe on the beaches at St Tropez and Monaco, if I’m not mistaken. Does it also land in Disneyland for photos and a ride through Donald and Mickey’s tunnel of gay and lesbian love? If there’s several and they enjoy getting up in skirts and dancing on stage I’m worried that the Rockettes will be unhappy to hear of it. If I am mistaken, please accept my apologies in advance, old boy and thanks for saving me the cost of tickets to see it. Cheerio Ohs.

  6. voislav says:

    My big concern is that Russian military has had its Soviet 1940/1941 moment in Ukraine and is transforming into a modern military with ubiquitous use of cheap FPV drones and loitering munitions. Russia is building new drone and munition production facilities that are in line with consumption rates they’ve seen in Ukraine. For all the talk about their missile performance, they seem to be able to produce sufficient amounts to launch a few hundred a month. Even their tank and armoured vehicle production exceeds that of the US and Europe.

    Meanwhile, US and EU are doing nothing. There is no awareness that their military doctrine is obsolete and no urgency to reform it along the lines of the Ukrainian military. Ukrainians themselves have repeatedly ridiculed NATO training as unrealistic and only appropriate for anti-insurgency operations not modern combat between peer adversaries. Over-reliance on air superiority was exposed since Ukrainian air defenses with older S-300 and Buk systems was able to effectively ground far superior Russian Air Force, restricting it to its own side of the battlefield.

    As much as Russian Army has shown itself to be impotent, I view the Western armies to be even less capable. Frankly, even the US army would be hard pressed to take on either of the armies involved in the war in Ukraine. US seems to be heading towards confrontations with China and Iran, so we may see how well US military performs in these new battlefield conditions.

    • drifter says:

      All technological superiority is perishable. Technology can reap great benefits. But it can be a hindrance. A society organized around technology “A” may suffer great disruption if it transitions to technology “B”. Military institutions may indeed accept loss as a military matter – because the political, reputational and economic loss resulting from adopting “B” outweighs the benefits accruing to them from victory for the nation.

    • LeaNder says:

      Ukrainians themselves have repeatedly ridiculed NATO training as unrealistic and only appropriate for anti-insurgency operations not modern combat between peer adversaries. …

      … US seems to be heading towards confrontations with China and Iran

      Facing peers and a minor regional power? China. Who is the minor regional power Iran or Russia?

      Many, many years ago–quite to my surprise–I discovered a certain hesitancy up to dislike of Paul Krugman’s arguments. It seems he feels the US does not spend enough on its military. You all agree? You Voislav? войслав/воіслав, hmm Ukrainian has an “i”.

      The NYT columnist uses irrelevant metrics to argue for giving more money to the Pentagon.

  7. Yeah, Right says:

    OK, I’ve had a look at the interwebs and the ONLY source for this claim is the HUR, and the ONLY news sources that are running with this (apart from TTG, of course) are Ukrainian.

    There have been no western media that have carried this “news”, and there has been absolutely ZERO comment from Washington other than a boiler-plate announcement from them that the Kremlin informed them of the October 25 tests through the normal channels.

    The last is a pretty damning bit of evidence, because if this story is true then the Pentagon has a very vested interest in pointing to it and saying “Yeah, these tests do tend to suck, don’t they just?”

    I’m confident in laying my cards on the table: The HUC’s allegation of a November 4th test is a complete fabrication. Totally didn’t happen, success-wise or failure-wise.

    The October 25 tests were conducted -western MSM did report of them – but they were a success, which is why the MSM reporting of them was so cursory and why neither the Pentagon nor the Japanese military released any derogatory comments regarding their failure.

    I’m quite confident now that the entire episode is just an amateurish attempt by the HUC to curry favor with their paymasters by making up a story that the Russians have been no more successful than the Americans with their recent tests.

    And, furthermore, the reason why the HUC invented “news” of a November 4th failed-test is because that date is after the USA’s own embarrassing failure on November 1st, and therefore the Ukrainians believed that this would make their “scoop” more newsworthy.

  8. F&L says:

    TTG – It’s maybe time to notify MC O’Hen that MC henceforth signifies Mental Case.
    And tell him I’m not Hen’s Fourth. Aren’t they just the dearest McCutiepies ever seen – to look sane Empress Bib the First or King Bib I (just call me Bibi, baby) told someone to suggest the Nu King Restaurant only so he could look wise by firing him. How many ever figured out Bibi was a reference to Bible? 5 pts).
    In our Pantheon though, he’s Prime Minister Buy Bull. Which abbreviates to Bu Bu meaning Boo Boo, which has several connotations. Boo Boo Bubu the First of Israel.
    Or Boob Oo, as in an ooze. “Just call me Bubu, Bubba!”

    Nuking Gaza a Possibility
    Amichai Eliyahu’s remarks have sparked widespread condemnation in Israel and Palestine alike.
    Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu has suggested that his country could launch a nuclear strike on Gaza. The controversial remarks caused outrage across the Israeli government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspending Eliyahu indefinitely.
    In a Sunday interview with Radio Kol Berama, when asked if Israel could drop an atomic bomb on the Palestinian enclave, the minister, who is a member of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, replied that “this is one of the possibilities.”

    • TTG says:


      The Israeli Heritage Minister is a dangerous extremist, a whacko with his head jammed deeply up his ass. He and his Otzma Yehudit party members are no better than Hamas. Bibi only suspended him rather than firing him. That show how beholden he is to these whackos.

      BTW, what did mcohen do to you to earn your continuous wrath? Give it a rest. You’ll live longer.

      • F&L says:

        You’re right on all counts. What he does though is perpetuate the idea that there is something over there that is worth saving, and because there isn’t and hasn’t been for awhile now and it costs this country, the USA, and the rest of the world so much, it has indeed poisoned my outlook toward that psychotic state called Israel. Post WW2 there was reason to be hopeful, in addition to shame and desire for recompense from the 1940-45 tragedies. Because Judaism and it’s people had a long tradition of rather high culture and achievement in scholarship and particularly promoting the utopian ideal of human life lived in pursuit of justice and the idea that human life is sacred. That simply is no longer the case whatsoever – it’s an intensely militarized and despicably cruel state with backward looking religious fanatics and racial supremacists at the helm. It doesn’t teach any ethical traditional whatsoever, it teaches – “FU, we are the chosen people, possessing more divine rights than any former king or emperor of old, and you will do what we tell you to do or else. And because of our ultra divine status, we are not accountable to you or anyone for anything including blatantly extreme atrocities committed in full view. Your mail is read, your phones bugged and monitored and all because we have lived out our parole on your dollars in such a vicariously evil way that masses of the Islamic world have risen up against you who protect and coddle us.”

        The whole idea of their psycho god dictating in totalitarian style to everyone what is and isn’t ethical is outdated and psychopathic poppycock unfit for our time or any other time.

        But you’re 100% right that it isn’t good for my health to let it get to me. It’s been fatal to uncountable thousands of others though for decades now, and it has reached a point where it can no longer be tolerated or countenanced. It stinks to high heaven. The promise of scholarship and justice and belief in the value of human life proved to be worse than empty. They disgracefullly drag those ideas through the mud every day.

        John Gray: Why Cats Don’t Need Philosophy

        • TTG says:


          Israel and Zionism is not Judaism. Between the US and Canada, the number of Jews far outnumbers the number of Israeli Jews. Remember a few short weeks ago there were massive protests against Bibi, his Likudniks and his crazy-assed right wing allies.

          • Peter Hug says:

            If I were in Israel right now, I would be doing whatever I could to leave. If I were a Jew outside of Israel, I would be completely devastated by what Israel has and is doing.

  9. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Some of you above have mentioned drone warfare.
    Here is a description of part of that that might be of interest:

    So, who is winning the drone war?
    I certainly don’t know.

  10. Fred says:

    Where is our, or any of our allies, report on this event? Why on earth do we rely on Ukrainians for such information?

    • TTG says:


      Newsweek reporting on this relies on a Russian news source Serena on Telegram.

      Since June 30, 2023, at least six unsuccessful rocket tests have taken place in Russia, a source at one of the rocket and space industry enterprises told Sirena. Some launches failed altogether. Here are the details:

      ☑️ On June 30, the Poseidon device was tested unsuccessfully – an underwater nuclear torpedo that should hit coastal areas, ships and naval bases. According to our source, the cooling sensor showed a lack of coolant, the reactor did not start, and the Poseidon was thrown out of the shaft, after which it sank. The next launch was planned for late October – early November, but it has been postponed.

      ☑️ On August 30, the third launch of the Sarmat complex did not take place. It was postponed due to a failure in the missile’s centralized control system, Sirena’s interlocutor claims.

      ☑️ On October 25, “presidential launches” took place – Putin led the tests. The Kremlin then stated that all the objectives of the exercises had been completed. Our source says that the Yars missile fell during the second stage of flight, and the Bulava launch was canceled at the last moment.

      ☑️ On October 31, the next Sarmat launch was disrupted – the telemetry system failed. According to the source, this was explained by a mistake by the maintenance staff.

      ☑️ Today “Sarmat” fell in the 77th second of flight 300 kilometers from the launch site. This already happened to the complex in February. Test participants do not have clear versions of why something goes wrong.

      In September, the head of Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, said that the Sarmat complexes were put on combat duty. Sirena’s source believes that the Russian authorities were “obviously in a hurry” with this.

      • aleksandar says:

        If you mean Сирена or @news_sirena.

        It is not russian.
        Probably set up by MI6 or CIA.

        Their best joke so far about Kersch shipyard :
        “Since 2020, it has been building aircraft carriers for the Russian Navy.”

        Probably the most secret secret secret aircraft carriers in the world !

        Comments, especially those made by their ” military expert ” Ian Matveev celebrating Ukrainian ” victories” and palestinian genocide are enough to understand that sirena is a western propaganda asset.

        • TTG says:

          He and Sirena News are not in lockstep with the Kremlin line. That doesn’t mean they were set up by MI6 or CIA, anymore than those here not in lockstep with Washington are controlled by the Kremlin.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Please, Sirena News is a Telegram channel.

            It could claim to be based on the Planet Koozbaine and neither you nor I would be able to prove otherwise.

            “He and Sirena News are not in lockstep with the Kremlin line”

            Understatement of the week.

            “That doesn’t mean they were set up by MI6 or CIA,”

            Except that the continued existence of Sirena News in the face of its hostility towards the Kremlin is evidence that it isn’t a “Russian” news service.

            After all, you just comparied its rebelliousness against the Kremlin with anti-Washington posts.

            Does this mean that you accept that the freedom of expression inside Russia is comparable to that in the USA?

            Yet I thought that Putin was a dictator, and Russia is a corrupt cesspool?

            My mistake, apparently.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            I gather that any news service, group or individual not towing the Kremlin line is not Russian. That seems to be a clear sign that Putin is a dictator and Russia is a corrupt cesspool. Dissension and differing views in the US do not determine whether we are patriotic Americans or not in spite of what extremists on both sides may claim.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Apparently I need to put the /sarc tag in my posts.

        • Yeah, Right says:

          I think a quick hats-off is owed to TTG here, because he has uncovered the source of this “news”.

          So thanks, TTG, for answering the question that has nagged me from the beginning: How on Earth could the HUR know that these rockets went off course?

          They clearly don’t have the ability to monitor the flight, and the Russians very clearly aren’t talking to them.

          It couldn’t be some HUR HUMINT asset, because even the Ukrainians wouldn’t be so foolish as to risk burning such an asset by revealing this information.

          The USA and Japan *do* have the SIGINT to monitor those flights, but why would they bother using the Ukrainians as their cutout? Why not leak it straight to the NYTimes?

          Nope. Mystery solved: the HUR reads Telegram channels. It then takes that content and regurgitates it on its own Telegram channel.

          Have to say, the more I learn the less this story impresses me.

    • Fred says:


      Newsweek is also saying the Ukrainians are stealing the aid left and right as well as losing the war.

  11. leith says:

    That joke about Russkie aircraft carriers being built at Kerch was sarcasm aimed at the Kremlin. Medvedev and and the MIC oligarchs have been getting flustered about where carriers could be built now – since the Mikolaiv shipyard in Ukraine that built all previous carriers for the Kremlin was no longer available.

    And whether or not the Sirena channel was set up by MI6/CIA, they have good sources inside Russia. They are mostly defectors. Plus Newsweek reporting is generally rated as Mostly Factual, not the highest rating but better than average for the media.

    So I’ll go with the test failures being possible or even probable, until it’s proven otherwise.

    • Yeah, Right says:

      Newsweek’s only source is Sirena News. They say that quite openly when they give attribution in the first paragraph. So Newsweek’s journalistic integrity is neither here nor there.

      The question is entirely that of Sirena News’ integrity.

      Now, if you go to their Telegram channel and read the post you’ll see that they have exactly one (anonymous, not unusual) source.

      It isn’t a “defector”.

      Their source is described as someone who works in “one of the enterprises of the rocket and space industry”, which strikes me as rather unlikely but certainly – if true – a very dangerous factoid to cough up as far as that source’s future employment is concerned.

      “So I’ll go with the test failures being possible or even probable, until it’s proven otherwise.”

      Hmm, OK. What constitutes “proof” in your world, leith?

      Sierna News gives no “proof” of its allegations, since they don’t make the slightest attempt to corroborate what they claim they were told by this loose-lipped source inside the Russian aerospace industry.

      The Russians claim that the October 25 test were completely successful, so there you have a flat contradiction of Sirena News’ claim. Make of it what you will.

      I’d like to see some corroboration from some other source, if that’s alright with you. At a start, I’d like to see the NOTAM for the alleged November 1 failed launch.

      I can’t find it anywhere, which suggests to me that the claim of a November 1 test is bogus.

      I’d also like to see some comment from the USA DoD either confirming the Ukrainian claim or supporting the Russian reports.

      As I said to TTG earlier, on such things I would consider the Pentagon to be a trustworthy source.

      But, really, so far the ONLY thing I’ve seen is that Sirena News claims that someone (not telling who! but trust me, he knows!) whispered all this into their ear.

      HUR then read it in Telegram (or Newsweek’s stenography) and then regurgitated it on their own Telegram channel. Where TTG picked it up from.

      But in the absence of any outside corroboration it smells. It smells real bad.

      • TonyL says:

        Yeah, Right,

        “At a start, I’d like to see the NOTAM for the alleged November 1 failed launch.”

        100%. The analysis should start there. Was there such notice? why there was none?

        • TTG says:


          I haven’t seen a NOTAM for any Russian launches, failed or successful. I’ve only read reports of notice given for the failed February 2023 test launch. BTW, a failed launch doesn’t mean they didn’t learn something to advance the project.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Oh, agreed, that’s what tests are for.

            But you are still assuming that the Russian test-firing was a failure. The Russians are saying that it wasn’t, and the only person who claims otherwise is Sirena News’ anonymous source in the Russian aerospace industry.

            Everything else from that point is simply an echo-chamber: there has been zero corroboration of that claim from anyone or any organization.

            Just one man who is claimed to have whispered in someone’s ears, and to my mind that makes the story extremely smelly.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            The official Kremlin line is that it was another glorious success. No one else is claiming that. The USG is neither confirming or denying. They seldom do. The Kremlin is also under no obligation to comment on their tests.

            One source in the Russian aerospace industry whispering to another Russian is exactly how I collected intelligence on the Russians for six years. That’s how HUMINT works and it has a pretty good track record. Journalism works the same way except their not as security conscious as case officers.

          • Mark Logan says:


            Here’s the recent NOTAMs for the area of Kamchika, you have to scroll down a bit to the NOTAM listed as “A4426/23”, but there are multiple Russian missile launch warnings for early November, affecting NORPAC routes (Anchorage to Japan-ish).


          • TTG says:

            Mark Logan,

            Thanks. Here’s the relevant bit if someone wants to plot it.

            510700N1611700E TO 464423N1661638E TO 461725N1644611E TO
            BY FURTHER NOTAMS. SFC – UNL, DLY 0100-1800, 06 NOV 01:00 2023 UNTIL 08 NOV
            18:00 2023. CREATED: 25 OCT 16:16 2023

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Ahem. That NOTAM is for November 06 – 08.

            The Sirena News article claims a failed Russian test flight occurred on November 01.

            Unless there is another NOTAM in that list then I’m calling BS on the claim.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            “One source in the Russian aerospace industry whispering to another Russian is exactly how I collected intelligence on the Russians for six years.”

            And I would assume that your nugget of information would go to the intelligence analysts, who would then collate it with other information that had been collected, and then an intelligence assessment would be made with its attendant confidence levels.


            Because that’s how I understand that US intelligence agencies work. I’m happy to be corrected if that is wrong.

            So in this case where is the corroborating information? None that I can see.

            “That’s how HUMINT works and it has a pretty good track record.”

            TTG, in the case of a nugget of information whispered by one HUMINT source without any corroborating evidence, what confidence level would your intelligence analysts put on that information?

            Would it even reach the level of “low confidence”?

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            That’s how it often worked. Just as often my single sources would be the only sources for certain bits of information. The level of acceptance of that intelligence was based on my track record and my sources’ track records in reporting. Some was not proven out until months later. Some of my single source, uncorroborated reporting received evaluations of “major significance” and was passed to high level decision makers long before the predicted events played out. This kind of HUMINT is judged far differently than some one-off debriefing or some analyst looking at some open source tweet, newspaper blurb or overheard phone call.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            ” This kind of HUMINT is judged far differently than some one-off debriefing or some analyst looking at some open source tweet, newspaper blurb or overheard phone call.”

            So, I’m curious how that gels with your willingness to believe that the Russian test launches were failures, given that the only source (a Telegram account) far more closely resembles “some open source tweet” than it does a confidential source who has been cultivated over time by a seasoned intelligence professional such as yourself.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            The writer of the report has an established pattern of reporting events that prove to be true. His reference to a source inside the industry and the detail provided also rings true. It also fits with the rash of things blowing up and catching fire across Russia. I tend to believe it. Of course it all be bullshit. You’re free to discount it.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            Just to point out that I’ve gone through the NOTAMS that were so kindly provided by Mark Logan and there is no such notice for a Russian test launch on November 1st.

            Not one.

            There are notices for test launches November 6th to November 8th – i.e. happening right now – but those can not possibly be the tests that Sirena News referred to since they posted their article on Telegram on November 4th.

            It’s bulls**t. The test launch that the confidential source referred to never, ever happened.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            The confidential source referred to five failed or cancelled launches since June. He also referred to the much publicized failed February launch that the USG confirmed. I believe the Kremlin has denied that failure.

        • Mark Logan says:

          As Yeah astutely pointed out the NOTAM is for this week, not last, and I’m afraid it is very difficult to find an expired NOTAM, the FAA deliberately makes finding expired NOTAMs difficult to avoid confusion. Only current ones are easy and anything else requires navigating a labyrinth archive-search. If there was a NOTAM for the previous week it is very difficult to find now.

          That said, there are NOTAMs for Russian missile launches for most of this month, starting very early. Asserting the missile activity doesn’t begin until this week from this is a big assumption, considering we are clearly in a period of extended missile testing by Russia in the region. The unavailability of the NOTAM for last week proves nothing.

          Try to find any NOTAM that expired in the past, lotsa luck without a subscription service. I struck out anyway…

  12. F&L says:

    Interesting comment by a respected Russian author and intellectual Vladimir Pastukhov. I’m not sure if he’s not right and it sets me deeply wondering if our leaders don’t similarly abhor the idea of peace breaking out. Not so much because they are sociopathic monsters and crooks, which in large part they certainly are, but because of at least these 2 things: 1- They have governed by means of greed and barbarism for so long that they can never be expected to either formulate another method of government or understand that alternatives exist and 2- Were people to be left in peace and security they might eventually, given time to heal and look back at how they has been deceived and manipulated into egregious acts of violence here and overseas for no good reason at all other than to enrich a class of vampires and graverobbing ghoulish overlords – they might take it into their heads to revenge themselves and with reasonable probability, finally, of success due to the cessation of the ritual of keeping large numbers of men at arms in huge militaries and secret surveillance apparatuses with which to brutalize the otherwise general health and well-being of humankind.
    I wonder if I’m the only skeptic or if there are others? All the trumpets of Jericho sound the coming truce. The news feed blows the mind of the average person: the war has reached a dead end, and either Ukraine is being persuaded to negotiate, or Ukraine itself is inclined to negotiate, but the “territory in exchange for NATO” deal is at stake. All this comes from a variety of information cracks: from NBC News, from TIME, from The Economist, and is deliciously covered on top with a thick, thick layer of Arestovich.
    What’s the sensation? The fact is that Ukraine is being persuaded to negotiate and is being demanded to abandon the concept of a “quick military victory over Russia.” But this is an open secret everywhere except in Ukraine itself, where, by a strange whim of the office of its president, the topic of a possible prolongation of the war and turning it into a long-term bloody “tightening” was taboo for a whole year. In my opinion, if there is a sensation, it is that this discussion has broken through, now into the Ukrainian “public”. This happened partly spontaneously, and partly at the instigation of the political leadership of Ukraine itself, which can no longer brush off the multiplying questions by referring to “a very close victory.”
    If everything is more or less clear with the context of all these “sensational” statements, then many questions arise regarding the essence of the emerging discussion. Are the rumors about an imminent and inevitable (again, inevitable) truce justified? To what extent is peace “shine” for Ukraine, and rest and a return to the good old “normality” for Europe and America, if only they want it? It seems to me personally that there is no “light” yet. The key message of all recent leaks is “everyone is tired of war.” It sounds plausible, but it’s a lie. There is one who is not tired, and they forgot to ask him.
    The myth that Ukraine is the intractable party that refuses any negotiations until all its preconditions are met (just like Israel), the main one of which is the complete liberation of the occupied territories, turned out to be so persistent that even gave rise to a mirror myth about Putin, who dreams of ending the war at any cost, but is not ready (not able) to give back the occupied territories, allegedly out of fear of the mass discontent that would be caused by such a step. Therefore, if you supposedly offer Putin “peace in exchange for territory,” he will immediately seize on this idea and agree to a truce. This has become such a commonplace in reasoning that everyone, from Trump to Yavlinsky and from Kissinger to Arestovich, bases their “peace plans” on it.
    I don’t understand where or why this confidence came from. But if I were in Putin’s place (God forbid!), I would never in my life agree to such, or in fact, to any peace (truce), including in exchange for any territories, including all of Ukraine . Especially now, when the situation at the front has stabilized and there is no need for additional mobilization. Why? Because Putin is a hostage to the war. Everything is fine with him as long as Russia is in a war – it doesn’t really matter what kind. As soon as the war stops, let alone ends, the internal agenda comes to the fore, and the carriage of stability immediately turns into a pumpkin. Victory in the war is as destructive for the Putin regime as defeat in it. It doesn’t matter which one: only Crimea, all of Novorossiya, all of Ukraine. Any victory is like death. Putin is a permanent war. There is a war – there is Putin, there is no war – there is no Putin.
    Putin’s most expected reaction to any offer of a truce in exchange for refusing to fight militarily for the de-occupation of territories, in my opinion, should be an immediate increase in rates and a return to the rhetoric about denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine – they say, it was in vain that we shed blood. If Putin does not do this, he will give a great gift to the Russian revolutionary democratic movement. But I haven’t believed in gifts from Putin for a long time. “Fear the Danaans who lay eggs” (Ilya Ilf).

  13. F&L says:

    Finally some pleasant developments arouse Mother Russia in wintery Yekaterinburg.
    Recently, there has been a real “snow boom” in the city of Yekaterinburg. Residents of the capital of the Urals took advantage of nature’s generous gifts and created something that simultaneously evokes smiles and discussion within the city and beyond. We’re talking about snow “penises” – unexpected and original shapes that decorate the streets and courtyards of the city. This unexpected man-made phenomenon has become the cause of conversations, jokes and comments on various platforms and social networks.

    • ked says:

      the Russian Common Man has always known he’s screwed. might as well laugh about it.

      • F&L says:

        Yes. It was a frisky rebellion against the hypocrisy of the authorities over there spending unaccountable billions on a tasteless military cathedral while sending their soldiers off to die without first aid kits, communication equipment or many other things. Does it say “FU?” Maybe. Maybe it’s reversion to old time phallus and fertility worship.

  14. F&L says:

    “It’s not chopped liver,” as the saying goes when David Axelrod “suggests” that Mr Hyde not run in 2024, despite Dr Jekyll’s (Jill) ministrations toward his longevity and preferred style of future management and non-enslavement, bravery, freedom and liberty & justice for all. Is “wise” an acronym?

    Former Obama strategist wonders if Biden should stay in presidential race.
    “What he needs to decide is whether that is wise,” David Axelrod said of Biden.

  15. F&L says:

    It’s a not bad discussion but my concern is of course with hidden secret messages. If you look closely at the panel behind the speakers you see prominently in caps:


    Stu Dies? Who is Stu? St U. Is he Saint U – that spells Ain’t US or Ain’t US Dies or Ain’t US Side.

    More seriously Stu is Stew which spells West. West Side? West Dies?

    Or Dusties. What’s Dusties?

    Continuing episodes of The Oracle Squeaks ..

    In Depth Q&A: Mearsheimer & Varghese – US Grand Strategy Ukraine, Russia, China

  16. F&L says:

    Previous singleton link posted in error.

    We might be about to see things get very interesting if Jekyll and Hyde actually are losing the black vote. Either this election will be blatantly rigged or they try California Governor Cave-In Knewsome or R F Kennedy June Noir. Or lose, as they richly deserve. But so does Tyrannosaurus Rump.

    As Black Voters Drift to Trump, Biden’s Allies Say They Have Work to Do
    New York Times/Siena College polling painted a worrisome picture of the president’s standing with a crucial constituency. Democratic strategists warned that the erosion could threaten his re-election.
    Black voters are more disconnected from the Democratic Party than they have been in decades, frustrated with what many see as inaction on their political priorities and unhappy with President Biden, a candidate they helped lift to the White House just three years ago.

    New polls by The New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states said they would support former President Donald J. Trump in next year’s election, and 71 percent would back Mr. Biden.
    The drift in support is striking, given that Mr. Trump won just 8 percent of Black voters nationally in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. A Republican presidential candidate has not won more than 12 percent of the Black vote in nearly half a century.

  17. Christian J Chuba says:

    “Putin’s much vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile proved vulnerable to a Ukrainian manned Patriot air defense system.”

    And the only source for that was from the Ukrainians and Americans repeating the Ukrainians. As I recall, the Ukrainians claimed something like 5 for 5 the very first time they operated a Patriot missile system.

    The Patriot missiles are slower than the Kinzhal. Slow missiles are fine if you are intercepting something with a fixed missile trajectory because all you have to be is an air mine, an obstacle that the missile will run into. The Patriot uses RADAR to predict the objects flight path and then active homing for the final 1000 ft or so.

    The Kinzhal introduces random flight changes. It doesn’t have to pirouette. A mere 10 degrees alters the flight path substantially. The Patriot needs to get into the ballpark to have a chance.

    Favorite analogy, a single defender vs runner on the open field of U.S. football. The runner doesn’t have to do much to beat him, his only two moves are run around the corner or do a single cutback. The runner wins 9 / 10 times. Now if the defender was 2x faster than the runner he would be able to catch the runner from behind. This is why the PM-whatevers has to be faster than the missiles they are tracking, if those missiles can alter course.

    In short, don’t buy it.

    • TTG says:

      Christian J Chuba,

      US sources didn’t just repeat Ukrainian claims of shooting down six Kinzhals. DoD verified the shoot down. The PAC-3 flies at Mach 4.1 and is also highly maneuverable. The Kinzhal can fly at up to Mach 10 at some point along their flight line. They are gliding during the last phase of their flight definitely not at Mach 10. Even the Mach 10 is just a claim. The Kremlin also claimed that they were unstoppable.

      • Christian J Chuba says:

        Is that an actual DoD report or a statement for public consumption? Our Pentagon made absurd statements about Syria for public consumption. Ukraine better be giving us all of their RADAR data so that we can learn about the Kinzhals flight path.

        Rule 1 60 says a 1 degree variance over 60 miles is a distance of 1 mile. If the Kinzal alters its course a mere 5 degrees that is a lot of ground for the PAC-3 to make up. If it was faster than a Kinzhal, I’d at least consider it plausible. The Kinzal just needs enough room to pass by a PAC-3.

        Having said that, sure, I bet the Patriot could occasionally intercept a Kinzal, but intercepting 100% of an entire volley? Reminds me of the ghost of Kiev.

        I don’t know how much speed a Kinzhal loses, per mile, when it enters its glide phase. Curious about that, the plasma bubble may help it maintain speed, don’t know.

        • TTG says:

          Christian J Chuba,

          Of course it was a public announcement. It was announced by a Pentagon spokesman, an Air Force general, during a televised press conference. I’m sure the full, detailed report is still classified.

          We have only the Kremlin’s word on the performance of the Kinzhal. It’s terminal phase is unpowered. A defense think tank says it drops to Mach 4, so a PAC-3 missile is just as fast, if not a little faster, and far more maneuverable than the much heavier Kinzhal. And I have read no claim that the Kinzhal can detect an incoming interceptor during the terminal phase. The Patriot interceptors have constant targeting input from onboard sensors and ground radar.

          • TonyL says:


            It sounds like that only on paper. In reality, the PAC-3 battery most likely will launch all of its interceptors before the Kinzhal’s terminal phase. Also, there are decoys for the PAC-3 to deal with.

          • Christian J Chuba says:

            And the Pentagon announced that 90 / 90 Tomahawk missiles hit their target in Syria while the Russians claimed that over half of them missed. And the Ukrainians are able to down 90% of Russian Kalibr cruise missiles using the same Russian air defenses.

            I am inclined to believe the Ukrainian and Russian accounts over our Pentagon. The cruise missiles are very maneuverable but also very slow and easy prey for interception.

            Tell you what. We will know who is telling the truth in the following way. If the Pentagon desperately tries to develop a new ‘PAC 4’ or a suped up ‘PAC 3’ missile then I’m inclined to believe the Russians. If the PAC 3 can make mincemeat out of the Kinzhal, then we will be content with the PAC 3.

            BTW the Khinzals fired at Kiev were operating at about half of their nominal range, so they would suffer less from air friction.

          • leith says:

            Christian J Chuba –

            The Pentagon started planning for a PAC-3 missile replacement and Patriot replacement almost 20 years ago. PAC-3 design is almost 30 years old. Several upgrades such as the PAC-3MSE, SkyCeptorPAAC-4 and others are already fielded. More upgrades are coming. Nothing desperate about it, just gradual improvement of the system.

  18. F&L says:

    T or F?
    On November 8, a new round of ceasefire negotiations will take place in the Gaza Strip in exchange for a suspension of airstrikes and ground operations for 120 hours with the opening of humanitarian corridors and the supply of fuel and lubricants and medicines.
    Negotiations will take place in Doha, after which representatives of Hamas and the CIA may meet in Cairo to withdraw hostages from third countries. Israeli citizens held hostage by Hamas may be released in parts for the entire period of the 120-hour silence regime, to guarantee security and compliance with agreements.

    • TTG says:


      I’m sure it’s all touch and go if it is true. We’ll know on the 8th, I guess.

      • F&L says:

        Meanwhile this below. Almost simultaneously or soon after this broke Zelensky declared no to Presidential Ukrainian elections. Paranoid speculation is rife, for good reason, given what appears to have been an assassination of the top general’s assistant, a general said to be at odds with Zelensky.
        Zaluzhny’s assistant died from a grenade explosion
        Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny confirmed the death of his assistant Gennady Chastyakov. There are two versions of his death – he received a grenade for his birthday, which detonated, or he handled it carelessly.Subscribe to the channel

  19. F&L says:

    Neither here nor there, of historical interest. Translation of what purports to be and likely is the letter of Oct 26 by Igor Ivanovich Girkin (Strelkov) from his prison cell or someone representating themselves as him. Mostly a pessimistic overview of the fronts up till that date. Imo because it’s realistic and informed. It’s vintage Strelkov in style and tone. Humor is notably absent.
    Letter from Strelkov I.I. dated 10.26.2023
    Freedom for Strelkov (Miroslava Reginskaya)November 06, 2023
    Review of the military and internal political situation at the end of October 2023, (briefly and concisely).

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