“What most concerns Western observers, however, is Patrushev’s zealotry. Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics, has described him as ‘the most dangerous man’ in the country, the ‘devil on Putin’s shoulder’. For years Patrushev has promoted the narrative that Russia is locked in an existential conflict with America (‘they spit in our eye, and call it God’s dew’). Among a raft of conspiracies he promotes is the claim that the US is pursuing a policy of population control called the ‘golden billion’ (wherein a cabal of one billion global elites seek to hoard the world’s wealth and resources); is harvesting the organs of Ukrainian orphans; and trying to seize Siberia (this latter germinated from a mind-reader employed by the FSB to look into US officials). Even at the February 21 meeting, he ended on an often overlooked note: negotiations with the US were doomed to fail, he said.
Since the war began Patrushev has emerged as one of the most prominent hawks, alongside Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and the mercenary Wagner Group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. His chances of succeeding Putin rest on two pillars: at the moment, the ousting of Putin by hardline nationalists appears more likely than a coup by peace-seeking doves. And as a representative of the so-called “KGB clan”, Patrushev knows how to work the Kremlin’s internal politics to his advantage, unlike the other two who are loudmouth, martial outsiders. “
Comment: Sounds like bad news. pl
The ‘devil on Putin’s shoulder’ who could be the next Russian president (telegraph.co.uk)
Sounds like Putin might have the soundest mind among all these clowns who are just frigging nuts. I wonder what the new chief of the army, that bald hero of Syria, might have to say in a power struggle. He may hold some cards to play via what is left of Russia’s army. Set ups like this have caused Revolutions in Russia before. Maybe all these gents and their backers can find a way to kill each other.
You may perhaps worry about the « clowns, frigging nuts » on you own side. The ones who lost in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, soon Ukraine maybe.
Okay.
I’ve finished.
The Lindsey Graham neocon regime change crowd doesn’t care about the chaos and negative consequences of overthrowing Putin.
Lindsay Graham is obviously not a « frigging clowns, nuts » type of person
A year or two older than Putin. Exceedingly well educated, hugely intelligent. But sleek, a greyhound – tall and slender. A man behind the scenes type. When was Russia ever led by such a person? Never, to my knowledge unless one of the Romanovs fits the bill but I bet not. Example: the late William F Buckley as US President. Couldn’t ever work. Clinton had to hide his SAT scores from the wider Bubba public and act the good ol’ aw shucks redneck boy. If the Soviet leadership had managed to be ruled by people with Patruschev’s acumen we’d be speaking Russian by now. Immaterial now. Their pooch was screwed long ago.
PS:
There are many such videos, representing different outlooks. This one is quite interesting. From Nov 22 released just now. (No need to think about Debbie Does Dallas imo). Note that Voronezh is a border region which has been hit over the course of the hostilities. There are some military academies there if my recollection is accurate:
Russians react to the news about retreat from Kherson: Voronezh.
https://youtu.be/9NklaHwImeI
This is not going over well with Putin’s critical Russian bloggers!
Reuters: Anger in Russia as scores of troops killed in one of war’s deadliest strikes
Russia acknowledged on Monday that scores of its troops were killed in one of the Ukraine war’s deadliest strikes, drawing demands from nationalist bloggers for commanders to be punished for housing soldiers alongside an ammunition dump.
Russia’s defence ministry said 63 soldiers had died in the fiery blast which destroyed a temporary barracks in a former vocational college in Makiivka, twin city of the Russian-occupied regional capital of Donetsk.
… Russian military bloggers, many with hundreds of thousands of followers, said the huge destruction was a result of storing ammunition in the same building as a barracks, despite commanders knowing it was within range of Ukrainian rockets.
… Russian military bloggers, many with hundreds of thousands of followers, said the huge destruction was a result of storing ammunition in the same building as a barracks, despite commanders knowing it was within range of Ukrainian rockets.
“What happened in Makiivka is horrible,” wrote Archangel Spetznaz Z, another Russian military blogger with more than 700,000 followers on Telegram.
“Who came up with the idea to place personnel in large numbers in one building, where even a fool understands that even if they hit with artillery, there will be many wounded or dead?” he wrote. Commanders “couldn’t care less” about ammunition stored in disarray on the battlefield, he said.
Russia’s acknowledgement of scores of deaths in one incident was almost without precedent. Moscow rarely releases figures for its casualties, and when it does the figures are typically low – it acknowledged just one death from among a crew of hundreds when Ukraine sank its flagship cruiser Moskva in April. …
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/defiant-ukrainians-cheer-new-year-drones-blasted-skies-2023-01-01/
The fact that Russia announced such losses, for the first time, as well as Western media making a fuss about it, makes it look like it’s a rare event, when such losses occur daily on Ukraine side.
Marc, several reports have dead/injured around 400. Russia likely minimizing the number.
“…such losses occur daily on Ukraine side.“
Marc, Can you provide a few examples of when large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers were killed in a Russian army attack? Should be easy since you say it is a daily occurrence.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1609829769293561857?s=21
Sam,
You can take a look at the daily reports of the Russian MoD : https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/briefings/briefings.htm.
A few weeks ago, the President of European Commission saying in a speech in November that over 100,000 UAF soldiers had been killed since the start of the war. That would be quite a few per day.
From wikipedia : “On 24 December, a Spanish media source reported that the Ukrainian military was suffering up to 400 casualties in the area around Bakhmut daily.[84] On 27 December, Vice Media reported that one field clinic in Bakhmut treated 50-100 wounded soldiers each day.[85]”.
Maybe Russians military has been sustaining similar losses. If so, I find it weird that so much fuss is being made (in Western media, but also in Russia) about this specific event. Why have there been no such reports before ?
Marc,
The reports are that both sides have lost 100,000 KIA each. For Russia that is a huge percentage of its invasion force of reportedly 150,000 – 200,000.
In Bakhmut both sides are bleeding but it would appear the Russians more as they are conducting offensive operations in an urban setting that favors defensive positions. Please see the comment by the Wagner chief on his perspective of the Bakhmut operations that I posted in the Bakhmut thread.
IMO, why this hit on a Russian army barracks is big news that even the Russian MOD had to respond is because of the large number of Russian soldiers in this 3 story building – reported to be over 600. The satellite imagery shows a completely flattened building. So common sense would be the casualties are in the hundreds. Note that Russian MOD did not say much when the Moskva cruiser was sunk which would have seen a large number of sailors perish.
The Ukrainian army is clearly punching well above their weight. Not just in maneuver warfare & defense in-depth but in intelligence collection, fusion & action also.
@Marc “Why have there been no such reports before ?”
Good question. One telegram thread was saying that there was so much frostbite and hypothermia in the trenches that Surovikin started rotating units. Putting those just back from the trenches into hotels and/or schoolbuildings to thaw out before sending them back. Or in some cases new arrivals were posted there awaiting a posting to the front. Pi$$-poor OPSEC though, Ukro DIA equivalent got a fix on their location either by local partisans or by mass mobile phone calls from that spot by the soon to be dead Russkie soldiers, or perhaps a combo of both.
Marc; yes Ukrainians die everyday. Children, women, old men and soldiers are daily killed. Not so in Russia. Since Russia has invaded Ukraine and the fighting is occurring on Ukrainian soil this is to be expected. Confounding to the Russian, the Ukrainian endures. Despite destruction to their cities, infrastructure, and lives Ukrainians persist. They must value independence. Americans know about that. Then there are those who do not value independence and are content to serve as another’s slave.
I retract my previous judgement, your propaganda is not better than that of TTG, it is only louder and a bit silly at that. 🙂
You sure your not working for TTG???
@Bill Roche
Oh! NO! I would never, ever support a lefty!
Not that I am any sort of right-wing but I am strongly anti-left, I cannot stand LIES and these are the “basic ingredients” of any left ideology.
jld,
You’re a George Santos kind of guy, aren’t you? There are plenty of reasons for someone not liking the left, but lies are hardly something high on the list.
jld; TTG is wrong on the second amendment and when there’s an appropriate post he and I can discuss it, but a leftist? He is more subdued, and I may be silly, but loud. That’s hurtful. I am a conservative/libertarian. You cant get much further right (or more conflicted). Best.
@TTG
What a strange confused reply, I am not the one lying I am the once denouncing lies.
Ah! I get it, it is the Standard Procedure, accusing the “enemy” of your own practices.
jld,
Looking at this thread I get the impression that you think I am calling you a liar. I am not. I apologize if you got that impression. I was pointing out the absurdity of calling the left liars while Santos, a Republican and right wing one at that, has proven himself to be a creature void of all truth. Very few on the right have called him out on this.
Bill Roche,
You don’t understand that politically and culturally Ukraine is split around 50/50 between Russian-speaking people in East & South of the country, and fiercely anti-Russian people in the West (not the majority of them of course, but a very active and violent minority). When the latter violently raised to power in 2014 and promoted anti-Russian policies starting by removing the status of russian as co-official language, the Russian-speaking people protested, were severely repressed (just look up “odessa house of trades”) by ultra-nationalists units such as Azov, Kraken and the like, and took the arms to defend their lives and freedom.
Since then – 8 years! children, women, old men and soldiers have been also daily killed in Donbass, by the UAF, in violation of the Minsk agreements signed by Ukraine in 2014/2015, but that they always refused to implement, including Zelenski even though he was elected on that promise.
Merkel and Hollande recently admitted that these agreements were just a trick to gain time in order to re-arm Ukraine to the teeth, so they could reconquer Crimea and Donbass (contrary to the will of the people living there). When they got ready to do so, as shown by the massive increase in the shelling of Donbass in Feb last year, Russia said “enough” and decided to solve the problem in a different way.
If Ukrainians nationalists valued independence, they would not have accepted their government to be formed by the US after the coup in 2014 (remember that phone call between V. Nuland and the US ambassador in Kiev, “fuck the EU” etc. ?). They are just being used as a tool by the US to “weaken” Russia and split it economically from Europe.
Minsk, both I and II, was routinely violated by Putin, by the separatists, and by the many illegal expatriate Russian soldiers in LDR & DNR uniform.
By the way the latest polling shows that Joe and Jane Ukraini don’t want negotiations with Russia until all sovereign territory is liberated. Sure it is highest in the Kyiv and the west & north & central. But even Russian speaking areas in the east and south had a majority say nyet to talks with Putin.
Leith,
Minsk 1 & 2 were indeed violated by both parties, but the vast majority of strikes and civilian casualties happened on separatist territory.
Also, the spirit of the agreements was for Kiev to leave the Donbass people alone and stop attacking them. The agreements were quite favorable to the separatist republics, and Ukraine signed them only because she was in bad shape military at the time and needed to rebuilt a strong army in order to storm Donbass.
It is quite obvious who had an incentive to violate the agreements (and did), and who didn’t (and only did in reaction).
You have it backwards Marc. Undoubtedly you got that incorrect info from the “ussian Web Brigade or one of the many other of Putin’s dezinformatsiya firehose.
The Russian Federation and the People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk are trying to de-legitimize Ukraine as a nation and state. Denying Ukrainian history, calling them Little Russians. They have been doing it for at least eight years. Lying about the Minsk agreement violations. Lying about so-called biolabs in Ukraine. Attributing Russian war crimes to Ukraine. I would expect people living within the RF and subject to constant broadcasting of these lies to accept them, at least the older generation. But many of us here in the west seem to fall for this malarkey also.
Leith,
You and TTG are either deluded or lying through your teeth. In 2014 Donbass didn’t vote for independance, but rather « autonomy » from Ukraine (pretty much the same as Crimea he enjoyed since 1991). Autonomy in the sense of preserving their culture, language etc. The new Ukrainian govt, fully controlled by the US, refused it and decided to wage at on them. Again, good luck to us all bout ht is coming next. My hints: Europe going down first, followed by the US. How do you see things unfolding? Ukraine reconquering the Donbass and Crimea?
Marc,
You must be a fan of alternate history literature. Initial talk in Donbas of increased federalization within Ukraine was soon overtaken by events. In April 2014, armed pro-Russian separatists seized government buildings in both Donetsk and Luhansk and declared the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as sovereign and independent states. Initial calls for referendum votes were postponed at Moscow’s request, but were eventually held in May upholding the initial declarations of independence. Elections took place in November 2014 in both the DPR and LPR. Both the self-declared and later elected leaders of the DPR and LDR called for the accession of their independent states into the Russian Federation. The independence of these states was not recognized by Russia until shortly before the latest invasion and later annexed by Moscow as Crimea was annexed back in 2014.
I do see Ukraine eventually retaking her occupied territory including the Donbas and Crimea. I don’t know if this will all happen next year or not. Russian forces will be forced out or leave those territories and the Kremlin will somehow find a way to call it a victory.
Marc,
There’s always multiple sides to a complex story with much nuance. You have one viewpoint. TTG & Leith have another. Calling their viewpoints “deluded” & “lies” only shows the weakness of your arguments.
That’s all water under the bridge. Putin invaded Ukraine. Now it will be a military resolution. Let’s see how the winter and spring warfighting goes.
In any case the perception of conventional Russian military power has been shattered. This will have long-term repercussions for Russian global ambitions.
You are repeating more manufactured history Marc.
Immediately after Putin’s puppet Yanukhovich was thrown out busloads of Russian Federation citizens crossed the border into the Donbass. They and their local cronies vandalized the Luhansk Oblast Parliament (Rada or Council). They savagely beat anyone who tried to stop them including Russian speakers. They raised the RF flag over the the Rada and other State buildings both in Luhansk and Donetsk. That soon led to the establishment of the so-called People’s Republics. The many other Russian speaking areas in Ukraine like Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Mariupol, etc stayed loyal undoubtedly because there were no busloads of thugs and agitators from Russia crossing into their territory.
@Leith, TTG, Sam,
The main point is, some areas of Ukraine were not happy about their status and wanted to get apart. Why not let them be (not speaking of actively supporting them, like in the case of Kosovo or Kurds? Hint: this has to do with their relationship to the US) ?
Marc – The point is that a radical minority in the Donbass was unhappy with the status. But a large group of their Russian neighbors were extremely unhappy and rushed across an international border to stiffen their ranks. Plus armor, artillery, and other war materiel was sent there by Putin. Without that support, the Donbass might not be a happy camper, but they wouldn’t be dying by the tens of thousands for Russian colonialism.
Oh! NO! I would never, ever support a lefty!
Not that I am any sort of right-wing but I am strongly anti-left,
Hmm, makes sense considering your background. If I recall correctly. A conversation about the lies of lefties might be interesting. 😉
You’re a George Santos kind of guy, aren’t you?
He is a Republican, no? Considering that, it may make your response strangely partisan, if not a ill-reflected tit-for-that.
https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1610119697474748418?s=21
The Ukrainian army has been hitting these Russian troop concentrations. If they continue to be successful in this effort the Russian soldiers being mobilized for a ground offensive will become demoralized even before they’re committed.
The Russian Federation doesn’t need a reboot of Ivan the Terrible. And it doesn’t need another good Tsar like Alexander the Liberator (who ended up being assassinated for his efforts). Russians need more power at the local level outside the reach of the centralized power of Kremlin schemes, apparatchiks, or the KGB Clan. They need freedom from the oligarch leeches that are bleeding the country dry – or at the least they need to be able to direct some of that oligarch loot locally instead of it ending up in the hands of Putin and his cronies. Or the loot ends up in multimillion dollar yachts and luxury apartments in London, or in lakeside villas in Switzerland, or on the golden beaches of Cyprus. Oblast governors and legislatures need more power to fix regional problems and concerns instead of depending heavily on Muscovy, which only looks after itself and its elite.
Unfortunately I don’t see that happening any time in the near future.
Leith – you do realize that Ukraine is also run by parasitic oligarchs don’t you? Who do you think groomed Zelinsky for his present position?
JamesT,
Ukraine was run by parasitic oligarchs even to a greater extent than Russia. Slowly progress was made to reduce the oligarchs power and influence. Zelenskyy himself pushed anti-oligarch laws. But this war has all but destroyed the power of the Ukrainian oligarchs. Their economic base was destroyed. Zelenskyy stripped Kolomoisky, his old sponsor, of Ukrainian citizenship. Before the war Zelenskyy was in the process of stripping media ownership from oligarchs. Now under martial law, that process is complete. Ukraine has plenty of problems, but oligarchs are no longer one of them.
TTG,
“Now under martial law, that process is complete. ”
So Zelinsky is ruling the country under martial law? That makes the legislature, what, besides a rubber stamp?
Fred,
Yes, Ukraine is now under martial law. I’m sure you’ve noticed she is fighting for her continued existence as an independent country against a massive invasion from Russia. Under martial law, the Verkhovna Rada is still functioning. Martial law does not transform Zelenskyy into a dictator.
TTG,
You must not have noticed the arrest of the political opposition and seizures of all the parties’ assets.
The SBU arrested Medvedchuk as he tried to escape to Russia. Putin planned to install him as president of Ukraine after offing Zelenskyy. Eleven opposition parties linked to Russia were suspended. Those party members who have seats in the Verkhovna Rada are still there, just not representing the suspended parties.
TTG,
“parties linked to Russia”
I remember years of “Russia collusion” and Mueller too. That FISA warrant was wonderful, as the UK linked dossier. I’m sure whatever laws Ukraine had in place were followed by Mr. Zelinsky too.
TTG,
You make cogent points as usual. But I hope the plan isn’t to make the Ukraine into a mirror of us – which I don’t think will work unless Ukraine joins the EU … in which case I am confident that it would work.
Years ago I sat beside a German on a flight in Central America, we were talking about Colombia, and he said “They have corruption ingrained in them right down to the cellular level.” Ukraine is the same.
Consider our recent nation building efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq to our nation building efforts in South Korea after WWII. The former was unsuccessful while the later was successful. The later had oligarchs (ie rich and powerful businessmen) but they were under the control of a Siloviki. In my view Ukraine either needs to join the EU or it needs a South Korean style Siloviki to run things – Ukraine is not going to magically turn into Denmark.
Ukrainians are corrupt to the cellular level. Thankfully all that corruption is in Kiev and none is left for London, Berlin, Washington, Moscow, Cairo, Teheran, and Beijing. That’s why those people are w/o corruption. Only Ukrainians are corrupt! Somehow, my home state, NY d/n get the msg. Albany has the distinction of being the most corrupt capitol of all 50. I wonder if Albany is more corrupt than Wash. D.C. Silly of me, Germans know only Kiev is corrupt.
JamesT,
I agree Ukraine should be part of the EU to continue her rise from abject corruption. It won’t be a mirror of the US, but it will resemble Poland and the Baltics.
TTG – I concur with you on this 100%. After all the sacrifice the Ukrainians have had to endure, it is only fair to give them EU membership.
James T –
The EU and Ukraine are going to have a summit meeting in a month on 3 February. According to Reuters, one of the agenda items is for the European Commission to “assess Ukraine’s path to membership in the bloc”. Another element of discussion will be how the EU “can continue to support Ukraine against Russia.”
Reportedly the summit is going to be held in Kyiv. Let’s hope it does get interrupted by a KH101 cruise missile. Would Putin try to decapitate the EU by taking out most of their hi-level members? Perhaps he won’t, even he is not that whacko.
Should have read: ‘does NOT get interrupted’
Leith –
I am skeptical that Ukraine will get admitted to the EU. I think the Europeans just want to buy up Ukrainian farmland on the cheap and build maquiladoras there. But I literally laughed in the face of a young Romanian woman when she told me that Romania had just been admitted to the EU – which it had – so hopefully I am just as foolishly wrong this time.
Ukraine will never join the EU. Not that it would change much about anything. EU is on the verge of collapsing anyway.
Joining the EU is a process that often takes many years. Especially for a country as big as Ukraine.
Without the war, they would be looking at 10 years minimum. With all the chaos and destruction going on, they will be lucky to join in 20 years.
Romania and Bulgaria joined in 2007 and still were recently blocked from joining the border-free Schengen zone. Croatia joined in 2012 and only this year was in a position to switch to the Euro currency.
EU accession is not a magical get out of poverty and corruption card. At the upcoming summit in Kiev, Ukraine will get a lot of nice promises and encouragement and little else.
borko
I lived in Warsaw in 1997-1998 and I have friends there to this day. Corruption in Poland definitely went down after Poland joined the EU.
JamesT
I don’t doubt that the corruption in Poland went down. EU membership certainly helps, but the transition to market economy, advent of social media and the strengthening of civil society even more so.
A vice presidents of the European Parliament was recently arrested and charged with corruption.
How much a certain country benefits from membership depends mostly on the country in question. EU will not turn Greece into Germany or vice versa.
I’m sure Ukraine will eventually become a member but it will take many years.
James T –
You are speaking of Kolomoyskyi as the groomer. Yes, he may have tried some grooming upfront. But Zelenskyy sponsored the “anti-Kolomoyskyi law” that banned former owners from recovering nationalized assets, placed Kolomoyskyi on the register of Ukraine’s anti-oligarchic law, and stripped him of Ukrainian citizenship.
Kolomoiskyi also courted many other politicians. That is what billionaires do in every country in the world including ours. His ‘grooming’ and financing targets of key politicians included Yulia Tymoshenko and her Bloc, former Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko, plus scores of legislators.
Kolomoyskyi and many of his oligarch friends that were exiled and stripped of Ukrainian citizenship also had Israeli passports and luxury villas in Caesarea and mansions in Jerusalem. Their association with and under-the-table bankrolling of the Likud Party goes unreported by both US and Israeli journalists. Many of the other Ukro oligarchs you speak of were Putinistas and buddies of Yanukovych.
Let him who is w/o guilt cast the first stone.
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Except now with the knowledge of what the old boss did wrong.
The Golden Billion, Harvesting Ukrainian Orphan’s organs, and seizing Siberia. Russophiles need not fear, Patrushev will lead Russia to her rightful place as earth’s Empire of Eagles. A 21st century Rasputin comes to mind. At the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, will Svetlana and Boris go along for the ride? Troubling; as the Ukrainian fiasco has demonstrated Russia’s remaining power is nuclear. Its all right, I still remember how to …”duck, and cover”.
It sounds to me like we should pray for Putin’s long health and long life and long-term remaining in control, and hope things turn out more better than not.
Also, if the two sides fight eachother to a grinding static stalemate so obvious that the two sides both see it, and if Putin is still in control if/when that happens, will the “settle for something” community within the West and within Ukraine be able to beat down the
“conquer it all, including Crimea” community in time to get something settled for?
Because if they decide to wait and keep fighting on for a “conquest of Crimea”, they will eventually get a government by Patrushev or some other Duginist who for his part will choose to keep fighting on for an “abolition of Ukraine”.
You should feel lucky to have Putin then. But no, besides having cancer, he is mad and all, bombing civilians for pleasure etc.
Does it really matter who Putin’s successor will be? What more can the Russian army do?
They’re apparently preparing a new ground offensive with newly mobilized soldiers. They’re attacking Ukraine with missiles and drones. Can they change the tide on the frontlines? It should be clear by now that there is a qualitative difference between Russian military hardware, command & control software and operational capabilities and what the West have. The Russian army is not a peer rival. That is the big revelation.
The Ukrainian government and army from day 1 of the invasion have demonstrated both capabilities and resolve that have repulsed every Russian military move and have gained battlefield advantage in over 10 months of fighting.
Would a Russian hawk unleash WMDs knowing that would be the end of Russia? Would Russian military command officers execute such an order? I doubt it.
This war will be fought conventionally. As soon as Ukraine starts to receive long range weapons the Russians will be further on the backfoot militarily. HIMARS brought a qualitative difference to Ukrainian war fighting with their 80km range compared to the 25km range of previous Ukrainian artillery.
https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1609837089717207043?s=21
This is what Russian hawkishness has achieved. A widespread unwillingness among Ukrainians to trade land for a short-term respite. If Zelensky’s NYE speech is any indication, they fully expect to fight for all their territory. The real question is are there any Russian leader who is willing to withdraw their military behind their borders? That appears to be the only way for this war to end with a negotiation. Otherwise it will be up to who wins on the battlefield.
Ukrainians recently took down the statue of Catharine the Great in Odessa. Reminds me of this current WaP article.
White contractors wouldn’t remove Confederate statues. So a Black man did it. WaP
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/02/devon-henry-confederate-statues-richmond/
They probably erected them up so it’s fitting they took them down.
Making the wrong strategic choice:
Consider the article
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/we-better-watch-out-nasa-boss-sounds-alarm-on-chinese-moon-ambitions-00075803
From that article:
So NASA has to delay key projects because of budgetary constraints.
Meanwhile, Congress sends even more billions to Ukraine than Biden requested.
This is absolutely disgusting.
Supporting Ukraine at the expense of the U.S. national interest.
Keith Harbaugh,
Supporting Ukraine is in the US national interest.
TTG,
Why?
Keith,
Did Politico do a similar article on the cost of illegal immigration to the budget? Maybe one on ‘green’ energy subsidy costs? Perhaps even one on NASA mismanagement of funds already allocated?
Fred,
Here’s how I see it. I recognize there are competing reasons for walking away from Ukraine. We can refuse to confront Russia, China or any other world problem. We can close our borders to all and embark on a policy of American sakoku. I think that would be a terrible move for us and for many others throughout the world.
Why is supporting Ukraine in the US national interest? Defending Ukraine and doing so as part of a European coalition shows Russia that naked military aggression is a losing strategy. China sees this and is forced to examine any plans she has in conquering Taiwan militarily. She sees that an invasion of Taiwan may destroy her national objective of expanding her place in the world economic order. Defending Ukraine is deterring China.
Ensuring Ukraine prevails against Russia’s invasion will largely negate the Russian conventional threat to the rest of Europe. A successful defense of Ukraine shows Europe, especially the countries of Eastern Europe, that Russia can be militarily countered without resorting to an all out NATO war and they can do it without US forces. NATO will change. It will enlarge. The frontline states will strengthen themselves and probably form an alliance within or alongside NATO. Our position will move from being the primary force provider to Europe to being (or remaining) the “arsenal of democracy” as we’re doing so now in Ukraine.
Finally, in my opinion Russia’s widespread use of torture, murder and kidnapping in a war of aggression must be confronted, just as the jihadi use of those tactics demanded confrontation. I see it as a moral imperative.
TTG,
You first paragraph is simply a strawman arguement. (BTW how’s our USA border defense working out?)
As to paragraph three, did you miss Merkel’s public statements that the 2014 agreements were never going to be adhered to by Ukraine and EU? These elite foreign neocons (the borg as the colonel calls them) are simply wagging the US military obligations around the same way they’ve done with financial manipulations like rigging libor or their excessing in the offshore dollar bond markets by their banking systems. We won WW2 and the cold war, it is long past time to exit NATO and those obligations.
As to paragraphs 3 and 4, was Iraq and Afghanistan similarly part of detering China? Certainly the collapse of 20 years of Afghan government reformation and the great exit from Kabul didn’t do so. If we must demand confrontation for “widespread use of torture, murder and kidnapping in a war of aggression” when are we going after Boko Haram, and a lot of others in Africa? When do we take on that regime that Biden said was a pariah – right before he begged them to increase oil output? That’s the one engaged in a war of agression in Yemen, which has been posted about here a few times.
The “moral imperative” – yes, determined by whom and at what cost? I won’t even mention the still secret client list of Jeffery Epstein, FTX’s political connections to both Ukraine and the Democratic Party (USA), or the word “groomer”. Doing something about them won’t require military intervention, just moral rectitude within our political leadership.
TTG,
“We can refuse to confront Russia, China or any other world problem.”
NATO exists to solve the problems created by NATO’s existence.
https://mronline.org/2022/12/03/nato-exists-to-solve-the-problems-created-by-natos-existence/
Marc
NATO expansion certainly contributed greatly to this war, but I don’t understand why Russia had to answer by trying to do to Ukraine what the NATO did to Serbia (support an internal armed rebellion, bomb for months and take part of its territory) ?
Borko,
Russia didn’t support the separatists at the beginning. It didn’t recognize their referendum about « autonomy » from Ukraine (in a quite cynical way : to keep the conflict frozen, so that, in theory, Ukraine could not join NATO nor get IMF loans etc.). Neither did Russia send troops there or provide arms. There were volunteers from Russia fighting with Donbas republics, but it has never been proven that this was a Russian policy. The Donbas Republics got their army from defection of the Ukrainian army in the region (Ukraine had a « regionalized » army at the time).
Russia only intervened 8 years after, when Ukraine , having played them fools not implementing the agreements they signed, and having been armed to the teeth by the US & co., signaled that it was ready to crush Donbass. You are right that NATO expansion contrary to promises made, AEGIS deployment etc., Zelenskyy threatening to renegade on Budapest agreements to not host nuclear weapons etc., played some role too.
I also agree with you on Serbia. This destroyed the status of NATO as a « defensive » alliance, and paved the way for new countries being created from the self-determination principle (there wasn’t even a referendum in the Kosovo case, contrary to Crimea and the other 4 oblasts that joined Russia).
Marc,
Russia intervened in Ukraine from the very beginning. Shortly after Putin’s man Yanukovych high-tailed it out of Kyiv for Moscow, Russian troops seized Crimea. As the Ukrainian Army slowly confronted the Donbas separatists, It was the Russian FSB Colonel Girkin organizing and leading separatist forces to seize Slovyansk. The Voentorg ran strong throughout the fighting. In addition to thousands of Russian “volunteer” soldiers in the Donbas, Russian GRU and Army units were also in the thick of the fighting. There was the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment and other elements of 98th Guards Airborne Division and the 15th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade among a few others.
I agree that Kyiv had every intention of eventually recovering control over all Ukrainian territory, even Crimea, from the very beginning. Now they are even more determined to do so.
I also agree that NATO’s role in the former Yugoslavia is far from a defensive role. But Slovenia and Croatia achieved independence from Belgrade without NATO help or interference. The incursion into Bosnia-Herzegovina was under UNPROFOR as was the move into Kosovo. The two air campaigns, although billed as UN moves, really were NATO moves.
TTG,
You mean, these horrible Russians « tortured some folks » too? If so, they deserve to join W in jail. Or on the golf course?
Marc,
The perpetrators of the Bucha massacres and other documented Russian war crimes won’t stand trial. Neither Ukraine nor NATO have the power to defeat Russia as we defeated the Axis Powers in WWII. All we can do is document the war crimes and continue to sanction Moscow in a vain attempt to seek trial and possible conviction of the war criminals. Moscow is not Belgrade.
Marc
Russia definitely supported the rebels. The initial support was somewhat reluctant but over time it grew.
In the summer of 2014 the rebel forces were about to lose completely and then Russia intervened much more strongly and saved them in 2014 and helped them with some troops and artillery support during the battle of Debaltsevo.
Support continued all these years in military advisors, finance, weaponry etc.
You agree with me on Serbia yet support Russian actions that have led to wholesale destruction, death and suffering.
Fred why? Biden s/h explained this to Americans long ago. Why should Americans contribute to Ukrainian independence? What do “we” care if Ukraine is again reduced to a colony of Russia. Does renewed Russian hegemony over Ukraine threaten the Baltics, Finns, Poles, and Slovaks. If so, why should America care. They’re so far away. Washington may have agreed w/y in 1796 and Ron Paul might still, but the world has since changed. I can give you my answers but perhaps we can encourage other correspondents to post.
Too many in Russia have to buy into this ‘Fatherland’ myth. Whether they do so out of conviction or convenience, I’m not sure of. I doubt there is the conviction of a few decades ago. Too be in good standing with the power structure and maintain your income, it is necessary to buy in:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-state-tv-laments-loss-of-ussr-a-soviet-miracle/ar-AA15UwZR?cvid=c7cdf0c8ba934c8685014663d551d3f9
Come back with your shield or on it makes an appearance.
Bill,
Biden isn’t in the habit of explaining things, like keeping covered up the source of a great deal of graft. Did you notice his vacation in the VI just coincided with the firing of their AG, who had just filed suit against JP Morgan for aiding and abetting Epstein in his criminal operations. That was certainly timely.
https://www.virginislandsnewsonline.com/en/news/usvi-attorney-general-denise-n-george-fired
Fred,
Just a random comment – It’s quite clear that undocumented immigrants in the US are a significant benefit to the US economy. They are prepared to do jobs that Americans are not willing to do (and these are absolutely critical ones to the functioning of the economy); they pay into our Social Security and Medicare funds without any hope of ever seeing any of that money back; to the extent that their employers actually send the withheld income to the IRS (and I suspect the frequently just steal it), they contribute the US Treasury and can never get any of that money back as a refund; finally, they are much more law-abiding than actual American citizens (unsurprisingly, given the consequences they face for drawing the attention of the police). Oh, and they aren’t eligible for welfare or Medicaid, so don’t try to bring that up.
Peter,
The first thing they do is violate federal law crossing the border. Second is gaining employment, if they do so, also illegally. Guess where they get that social security number so that social security tax can be collected by that employer who is illegally employing them in that role formerly done by American citizens? Oh right, that would be another felony by the multiple felon, and the employer.
Thanks for telling me what I’m forbidden to bring up, so kind of you. On a related note guess what California did?
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/10/19/medi-cal-expansion-provided-286000-undocumented-californians-with-comprehensive-health-care
On a truly related note, based on reading the prior comments on this thread, I recommend Biden start flying those illegals to EU countries. They have magic cultures that cause people to stop being corrupt. They have lots of jobs Europeans aren’t willing to do at low wages too.
Keith Harbaugh,
The West froze some 300+ billion dollars of Russia’s money.
I have no doubt, laws will be passed that will legalize the confiscation of those funds. In effect Russia will pay for all the weapons and financial support given to Ukraine.
I’m not a lawyer and can’t say whether that is legal/justified or not but it seems to me that is going to happen.
The EU has already started to move in that direction:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/30/make-russia-pay-eu-moves-ahead-with-confiscation-of-frozen-assets-despite-legal-pitfalls
As for NASA, maybe they should give some of that money to Elon Musk. He has a reputation of making things happen.
Borko,
The « West » did indeed freeze 300 billions USD from Russia. Many other people have been paying attention, including Saudi Arabia, and this will only push them towards de-dollaristion. It will take a while, but world order is changing.
Marc
De-dollarization ? I’m not so sure.
People know unhealthy food is bad for them but I don’t see fast food companies going out of business.
Habit and convenience are powerful forces.
Also, most countries don’t want to make Uncle Sam angry.
I suspect most of those frozen assets (both of the Russian Government and the oligarches) will go towards rebuilding Ukraine after all this. It won’t be enough – I expect by the time this will be done, rebuilding Ukraine will be a trillion dollar exercise; Russia will be required to foot the bill for the difference.
Peter,
Who is going to make the Russians do that and how?
Keith,
This was a $1.7 trillion, 4,000 page omnibus spending bill that was loaded with pork and earmarks. The tradeoff wasn’t necessarily Ukraine vs NASA as you posit. There were hundreds of billions appropriated for all kinds of boondoggles. I believe Sen. Rand Paul highlighted a few.
In any case how much of the spending for Ukraine do you think will be sequestered right in the Beltway?
You don’t like the support of Ukraine as it is evident in all your posts on this topic? The budget priorities are a red herring since our Congress spends so much on so many boondoggles by borrowing from the next generations.
Do you believe that Putin should be able to reconstitute the Soviet Union and the US has no interest in an independent Eastern Europe?
To TTG, on the issue of what is the U.S. national interest:
Phil Giraldi, for one, has a different opinion than yours:
https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/spies-and-more-lies-add-confusion-to-the-ukraine-conflict/
Giraldi goes on to discuss the various Ukraine-related information operations being carried out.
See also Patrick Buchanan’s opinion (which agrees with mine) here:
https://buchanan.org/blog/where-us-and-ukrainian-war-aims-collide-159740
Mike Whitney has an excellent (IMO) column,
which those who support U.S. involvement will probably disagree with, here:
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/tucker-gets-it-putin-doesnt-want-american-missiles-on-his-border/
To the questions Sam asked below, I don’t believe that is Putin’s objective but even if it were, I would not be terribly concerned.
During the Cold War, for most of us, the enemy was Communism.
Remember Khrushchev’s famous statement “We will bury you.”
I think the U.S. should, to recall an old phrase, “Keep its powder dry” rather than spending so much fighting Russia.
Sorry to say that, but only those believed that Putin is devil incarnate, who don’t read other sources but western MSM. He ain’t an angel of course, but very far from the dark, sinister Hitler-like figure “Putler” mockery suggests. He is an autocrat of course, and not a democrat, with a heavy hand no doubt.
Yet we, who are forced to live in the jaws of danger, bereft from the security of a moat like Le Manche or the Atlantic ocean we have to take other options into consideration.
We don’t like the Russians, but you just cannot ignore the 400 lbs, ripped off, pumped up mobster in your neighborhood.
So if the ex KGB lt. colonel is out of the picture, the worst nightmare of Europe comes into play, and if the britons and the yankees don’t accept this sad fact, they will quickly find themselves in a vers bad strategic situation.
“Know your enemy and know yourself, and you wont be in peril for a thousand battles” Su Tzu. Guess who did not make his homework.
Putin has some impressive stress management skills.
In his 20+ years on top of the food chain he has had to deal with so many crises, wars, catastrophes, yet considering his age he looks strong and vital.
He probably can endure a long war in Ukraine. Those around him however, might not have that resilience and could choose to put a stop to policies that are hurting Russia.
Will I agree w/you. Putin is not my favorite guy but I see no evidence (other then here say and anecdotal stories) that he is sick. You speak about “hurting Russia”. Over 100M Russian deaths in order to subdue people who refuse to be part of you. Efforts which, even in victory will leave you w/44MM people on your south west border who will HATE you for another 100 years. Apparently the Russian public either agrees w/this or are so sheep like that they accept it. Is there a Russian voice who says Nyet! I guess nyet.
Bill Roche,
I guess you meant 100k not m.
There won’t be 44m people living in Ukraine after this.
The people in the new Russian republics voted massively for it (you might say the referendums were a scam. The Donbass republics invited observers to monitor the referendums, no one accepted).
You have yet to realize that these people have deep cultural ties with Russia and have been severely repressed by the new Ukrainian regime installed by, mostly, the US.
I suspect that the experience of seeing Russian occupation troops up close may have been changing some Russophilic minds. Additionally, don’t forget that the initial referendum regarding independence had a significant majority in every area of Ukraine, including Crimea and Sevastopil.
Rueters:
“… Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat told Ukrainian TV that 84 drones had been shot down in two Russian attacks since the New Year.
Ukraine’s armed forces are organizing mobile groups to hunt them down, using jeeps and other vehicles equipped with anti-aircraft machine guns and searchlights, Ihnat said….
TTG, Fred, Keith, Bill. et al,
There has always been a segment of American society including politicians who do not believe in foreign entanglements. There were segments in the US opposed to our intervention in WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria. Not always the same groupings. We had some on the left who opposed Vietnam, & Iraq. We also have some on the right who oppose our support of Ukraine. This is not new.
The Iraq invasion is something worth exploring. Did Saddam pose a threat to the US? I think everyone would agree that never was the case. In retrospect if Saddam had taken over Kuwait and then Saudi Arabia would that have posed a threat to the US? Again, there would be a segment that would argue that it would have been beneficial for US interests as Saddam would have squelched the jihadis and prevented Saudi funding to the headchoppers. However, this is not what the Likudniks wanted. They did not want a peer adversary among the Arabs. So, the question that needs to be answered, whose interests did Bush/Cheney and the Democrat hawks like Hillary serve in Iraq, Libya & Syria, since it largely benefited the Iranian mullahs, the jihadis and the Likudniks? We continue to spend tens of billions of dollars annually and have for decades in direct military support of Israel. Are those that oppose financial support of Ukraine’s military resistance of Russian invasion also opposed to financial support of Israel’s military? If not, what is the difference?
When it comes to the support of Ukraine – there are several groups with different positions. There are the Tucker Carlson’s, Pat Buchanan’s, etc who I would classify under the US should not intervene in foreign military operations. Then there are others who argue that we have a national interest in supporting the Eastern Europeans and Scandinavians in preventing Russian colonialism and if we do nothing then Putin will take that as a signal that he can run roughshod over his neighborhood & elsewhere. They also argue that would be a signal to CCP to assert militarily in their neighborhood which would only exacerbate global threats that would directly impact US national security. There is another group who argue that Ukraine should be solely supported by the Eastern Europeans & the EU.
The bottom line is that these issues are not black & white. The starting point however in all these discussions is articulating US national interests and one of those interests who have a huge voice are the domestic recipients of these associated funding.
bleu peacock,
You’re right. The isolationist and avoiding foreign entanglement factions have always existed. And it’s a good thing they do. It is a respectable and important point of view. Pat Buchanan and others are good examples of this view. Tucker Carlson is actively cheerleading for the success of Russia’s invasion. He’s in a different class. I have no respect for him on this issue.
I liked Buchanan. But his assoc. w/Kissinger (Nixon admin.) may have convinced him int’l relations were amoral and he has attached amorality to his penchant for isolationism. To the isolationist I offer a thought. Imagine Russia is not good. Suppose Russia intends to follow victory in Ukraine with victory in Moldova. Although that would threaten our NATO ally Romania, c’mon, who gives a ship about Moldova. Russia may threaten Finland (b/f they get into NATO). It’s happened twice b/f. Should America risk war over Finland. Despite their NATO membership Russia can threaten the Balts but who cares about Lits/Lats/and Stones. I submit these possibilities would be “real politik” reasons for America to resist Russia in Ukraine. Then again, sometimes great nations simply have to do the right thing. Letting Russia destroy Ukraine is not right.
Bill Roche,
I agree with you on that. Another right thing to do is to stop the war in Yemen. We should stop all military support to the Saudis and Emirates and probably should interdict military supply to the Houthis as well. Those poor bastards need humanitarian aid, not more weapons.
Blue Peacock,
There has been an active segment of American society including politicians who support international intervention dating back to the Spanish American war and earlier. There were segments in the that actively US supported war with Spain, Germany (WWI), Iraq, Haiti, Panama, Syria, and others including this one in Ukraine.
“The starting point however in all these discussions is articulating US national interests…”
Yes, feel free to do so.
TTG,
Perhaps we should do a point/counter point on “Why We Fight”. It will drive the trolls crazy if nothing else.
Fred,
You are correct. We’ve also have had a war party for a long time. Coming from both the left and right. Each taking their turn to lead. We’ve had IMO, a more amped up war party since the Bush/Cheney Republicans & the Bill/Obama/Hillary Democrats got together on that. They also colluded with our national security/law enforcement apparatus to take us all the way to covidian hysteria and naked use of power.
In this case, if I had to argue, the US can achieve a great national benefit by supporting Ukraine militarily to defeat the Russian army. We would instantly gain respect and admiration from the Eastern European countries and the Scandinavians. They could become our allies in global affairs. The Western European countries would likely recognize that they don’t have the military capacity to deter aggression in Europe. US military power is their only bulwark for security. The CCP and our Asia-Pacific allies will notice our resolve on security matters. This is a moment that the US can demonstrate to the world that it will support militarily its alliance partners when their security is impinged to deter aggression.
The nuclear escalation, I believe is a red herring. Putin & the Russian command structure know the consequences. The Russian army is attempting their regrouping to what likely will be their last shot. The US can provide the weapons systems and intelligence that can prove decisive in this next phase of the war. The Ukrainian army with US support can defeat the Russian army. This can be hugely beneficial for US interests enabling Central Asian countries and other Russian satellites to chart their own courses and better relations with the US.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that we don’t have to sort out our core issue – the degree of authoritarianism that is openly demonstrated by our institutional authorities and the outright corruption of our political/judicial system.
Blue Peacock,
You mean Eastern European countries don’t already admire the USA and aren’t our allies? Where are all those European national armies and why aren’t they moving into Poland and Lithuania instead of the USA? Once Ukraine defeats the Russians we can move on to supporting Central Asian countries? Ayfkm?
Fred,
What are you arguing?
“whose interests did Bush/Cheney and the Democrat hawks like Hillary serve in Iraq, Libya & Syria”
I think John Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt have given a rather definitive answer to that:
The Israel Lobby..
Patrushev sounds dangerous.
Thing is, Putin has always been dangerous for anyone who is in the way of his ambitions.
Until the Ukraine invasion it was at least possible to believe that Putin was mostly dangerous to anyone who stood in the way of what he wanted within Russia; now it is necessary to reconsider (all of) the man’s agendas and actions with regards to Europe and beyond.
Although it is tempting (for me) to say ‘better the devil you know’, the consideration that Putin may, indeed, be quite mad can no longer be ignored.
Putin to Patrushev might only be a lateral move.
kj
KJ,
Yes Pathrusev may be dangerous along with with others in the Russian military establishment who think they have achieved first nuclear strike dominance over the US.
Putin, on the other hand, saved Russia from the disastrous 90’s and was quite keen to get along with us, until « we » shit in his hand. Now, good luck with what is unfolding.
AP: Sitting ducks? Russian military flaws seen in troop deaths [Commanders blame cell phone use by troops]
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The Russian military’s top brass came under increasing scrutiny Wednesday as more details emerged of how at least 89 Russian soldiers, and possibly many more, were killed in a Ukrainian artillery attack on a single building.
The scene last weekend in the Russian-held eastern Ukrainian town of Makiivka, where the soldiers were temporarily stationed, appears to have been a recipe for disaster. Hundreds of Russian troops were reportedly clustered in a building close to the front line of the war, well within range of the enemy’s Western-supplied precision artillery, possibly sitting close to an ammunition store, and perhaps unwittingly helping Kyiv’s forces to zero in on them.
The Russian military sought to blame the soldiers for their own deaths. Gen. Lt. Sergei Sevryukov said in a statement late Tuesday that their phone signals allowed Kyiv’s forces to “determine the coordinates of the location of military personnel” and launch a strike.
It was one of the deadliest single attacks on the Kremlin’s forces since the war began more than 10 months ago and the highest death toll in a single incident acknowledged so far by either side in the conflict
Going back to the original topic, many commentators think Dmitri Medvedev is being groomed as Mr. Putins once and future successor. Not only from his recent meeting with Xi of China, representing Russia, but also from the increasingly hawkish items he’s been issuing over the last few months, taking a very hard line. He’s been President once, prime minister before and after, so knows the job. Mr. Putin was thought to have taken back the job in 2012 because Mr. Medvedev was considered a dove, because he didn’t veto the UN resolution that permitted an attack on Libya. But it’s since come out that in 2008 Mr. Medvedev sent the army into South Ossetia against Georgia, when Mr. Putin in Tokyo for the Oympics refused to act. So maybe Medvedev is the real hawk, Putin the real dove.
Snhoj,
So Medvedev just voted at the UN the way he personally wanted, like Samantha Power, and Putin let he go unpunished, like Obama did to Power? Plus ordering military units into combat because Putin wouldn’t. Sure, totally believable. Putin being such a spineless leader, the JEB! of Russia.
Unless I’m missing something, you seem to agree with my post. Both the Libyan and Georgia instances have been fairly widely reported. I’m too dumb to make things up.
Ukrainian intel suggests Putin may die sooner than expected. Putin wants something to show for all his dead, but Russia is a great big country and has little use for more territory. Denying Russia an orbit of influence in Eastern Europe and surrounding her with ramped up defenses probably concerns him more (if I’m not mistaken, the real reason for his war). If a peace deal is to be made, then ideally one that will give up land today in a way that ensures it returns to Ukraine eventually. Locking Patrushev in a deal Putin made, patiently waiting for more sensible Russian leadership to eventually emerge, is an option to consider. I think that has to be weighed carefully given the prospect of a much protracted and potentially more catastrophic war.
https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1611323303217762305?s=21
Yup. Not all Russian speakers in Ukraine and even Russia support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.