I still think this could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas. However, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong. The stakes are very high, and there is significant potential here. The outcome is unclear. Russian troops on the border, including FSB border troops and conscripts, were enough to stop small incursions but clearly not enough to stop the advance of the combined force that Ukraine assembled for this assault. The large number of POWs is a big humanitarian win for Ukraine. This is a good chance to exchange Ukrainian prisoners and a huge win for the families of Ukrainian soldiers who have been waiting for their loved ones for over a year. Incredible job by the Ukrainian Forces.
When it comes to response forces, Russia is likely to use its internal reserves located in Kursk, Moscow, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts. We might also see units from the “North” grouping. The absence of a swift reaction shows that they were not informed or assembled. So far, there is no evidence of Russian forces slowing down their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, nor is there evidence that Russia is moving any reserves or units from the “Center” grouping of forces. This can change, but not at the moment, hence my skepticism.
It’s hard to gauge the moral blow to Russian society. Social media posts and influencers show they are unpleasantly shocked and clearly upset. However, it’s uncertain how long this will last, as they quickly moved on from the losses of Kherson and the retreat from Kyiv Oblast. Russia failed to identify this assault, showing a significant improvement in Ukrainian counterintelligence measures. Despite advanced ISR capabilities, Russian forces failed to interpret the concentration of Ukrainian forces as an offensive maneuver.
I currently have serious reservations about the logistical capabilities needed to sustain deep advancements into Russian territory, as well as the ability to continuously support these forces with AD and EW. However, I will refrain from drawing conclusions at this moment. Maintaining such intensity of assault and advancement would require a continuous infusion of resources, where Ukraine has constraints. As a result, we might see an eventual slowdown, potentially leading to a pullback or an effort to seize and fortify current positions.
The lack of timely assembled reaction forces on the RU side gives AFU crucial time to organize their defense. As time goes on, it might become more difficult for Russia to retake territories, similar to how Ukrainian forces are still struggling to regain control in Kharkiv.
Overall, it’s unlikely that we are nearing the end of the operation, so these conclusions are early and preliminary. My hope is for a total victory by the AFU forces, allowing me to write a follow-up apology thread acknowledging how wrong my initial assessment was.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1821300140755271836
Comment: These are the thoughts of a former Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami from only a few hours ago. It appears that, like all of us, he is still in the dark on what exactly is going on and what are Kyiv’s objective in launching this cross border operation. This demonstrates excellent operational security. Not only were the Russians caught off guard, but it appears we weren’t told of Kyiv’s plans either. So much for the Ukrainians being just our proxies or puppets.
Most reports now say there at at least two brigades involved in the operation. The 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade is one of them. This brigade has three mechanized infantry battalions, a tank battalion and a fairly famous drone battalion. They are equipped primarily with T-72 variants, BMP-2s and HMMWVs. The 22nd also has some modern German bridging equipment. I’ve seen a lot of dune buggy type vehicles armed with 50 cal machine guns. They would be decent for reconnaissance in this kind of breakthrough operation as well as anti-drone platforms. The 82nd Air Assault Brigade has also been mentioned as part of the force with at least some Challengers, Marders and Strykers.
There is a lot of speculation about how far they have advanced into Russia, how far they intend to go and for how long. Answers to those questions will become clearer in the days ahead. I do think the Russians will do whatever they must to push the Ukrainians out of Russian territory. This incursion has got to be eating at Putin, especially if it lasts more than a few days.
TTG
I keep hearing Colonel Lang “Lines of Communication, Lines of Communication, Lines of Communication … .”
And I wonder if it turns out here that the Russian forces will have to settle on cutting off the Ukrainian forces and simply wait for them to starve to death. Can it even be done? I would certainly think so but it is a real lift requireming resources. If they are cut of and don’t think they have the possibility of breaking out .. can they live off the land and pantries of Kursk oblast? Finite amount of time which will have the entire world tuned in in rapt attention. It won’t look good. And Putin must understand, I would think, if the media propaganda machine has taught him anything, that they will try to compare him with Netanyahu and Gaza — huge Intel failure followed by highly publicised humanitarian disaster. Kursk was the name of the huge Russian submarine which sank when Putin took office. And which he is considered to have handled poorly and insensitively. Good work TTG, I have followed this closely and can’t imagine a better summary than yours. Impressive.
F&L,
The Ukrainians may be aiming for a rail line with this incursion. Or they could be forcing the tempo of rail movement across the board. The Russian rail system is in bad shape due to sanctions on roller bearings. Their Western supplied bearings are wearing out across the fleet of locomotives and rail cars. It all could be part of a larger campaign aimed at the rail system. The Ukrainians are finally starting to hit railway electrical substations/transformers and even trains themselves.
Thanks TTG, you’re way ahead of me as usual. Here’s some random tactical details which might tell a good detective things about plans going forward, idk. Copied from Two Majors Telegram channel.
——————
https://t.me/dva_majors/49097
About tactics.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces used relatively new tactics for themselves when entering Kursk. They are deploying and using new units of “rangers” and conditionally new units trained according to a new scheme.
This tactic was recently tested in Kharkov, and those who saw it reported it.
But he didn’t receive any attention.
What is the meaning?
The enemy in our home area first normally “blows” the sky from our eyes, using an aircraft-type UAV.
Further under the barrage, the directed electronic warfare equipment is brought out almost to the first line.
Under cover of the directed forces, the reb brings out a huge number of its UAVs. Mavics on non-standard with boards shifting the range.
Guns and RAB are useless.
Under the incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs that come in swarms, he reduces the distance to his positions.
Enters and consolidates into empty dismantled trenches in small groups for 4-6 hours under the cover of UAVs.
The reb line is moved forward and the pattern is repeated.
More about the medicine later. Stay tuned.
Bingo. I think. The key to Ukrainian victory is targeting Russian logistics. So far it is working very well.
If Bill.Clinton and Dubya were Presidential material, I can’t see how this guy isn’t. Yes it’s all silly but that’s not the point. You can vividly see the Sargent Major in his demeanor.
Tim Walz First Speech:
https://youtu.be/Sz2vmrBogWU
The main damage Ukraine is doing with this attack could be psychological. Spreading some doubt will help them, as will causing Russia to move forces around to bolster defense of their borders. If Ukraine turns this into a Whack A Mole game, it will challenge Russia’s abilities to wage war.
Whack a mole, what a winning strategy. 🙂
Seems more like an offensive with PR goals, but time will tell.
Two brigade rolling like a juggernaut, all of ten kilometers anyway. What’s that, 5 miles? So they rounded up hostages, sorry that’s Hamas; POWs. Which they now need to feed and house with their completely unconstrained economy. It didn’t even budge “Tampon Tim” off the headlines, so what was the point?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/07/europe/russia-ukrainian-troops-cross-border-intl/index.html
Fred,
It now appears there are eight or more brigades pouring into the incursion. It’s more than a PR raid. those Russian POWs will be used to get Ukrainian POWs back in future prisoner exchanges.
More details. Nosing through Two Majors is interesting. Really humiliating that they evacuate their fallen on RF territory. Other channels are playing up the foreign (NATO) complexion of the attack and pointing out the coincidences with the foiled Navy Day assassin’s attempt on Putin and the announcement of the F-16 arrivals the day before this jumped off to say wake up it’s obviously Washington DC etc etc and not of the Ukrainian’s making.
———
https://t.me/dva_majors/49100
Kursk region:
Soldiers and officers who broke out of the encirclement report Polish and French speech. At night, the enemy brought in 15 ambulances, transporting dead and wounded foreigners to the rear. Two majors channel.
Fred
6.21 miles, be fair Fred, no cheating. And why does my browser suddenly play “Tiptoe Through the Tulips” when I click on your link?
Tiny Tim – Tiptoe Through the Tulips.
https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA
F&L,
I was checking out Transport Pete’s department website for expert rail line logistics info. Enjoy the rainbow.
Haha. Good one.
Tiny Tim – Tiptoe Through the Tulips.
Fred that’s 6 consecutive words starting with T. What were Rowan and Martin trying to tell us?
Fred – a little more than that. Don’t know if it’s accurate but grabbed this list verbatim from one of “b’s” commenters.
Ukrainian Forces involved in Kursk:
22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade
32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade
88th Separate Mechanized Brigade
54th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion,
the combined battaliin tactical grpup of the 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade,
Combined unit of the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
Special Operations Forces “Ranger Corps”
103rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade
129th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade
105th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade
115th Battalion of the 110th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade
49th Separate Artillery Brigade the 14th Separate UAV Regiment (represented by the Nachtigall Battalion, “Project M2” UAV group of the “A” Directorate of the Securiry Service of Ukraine Central and the Special Operations Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine.
All of the above units operate under a new tactical sign – a triangle.
The logistics centers are located in the Sumy region.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1821510667154682003
Put in the proviso that I don’t know if it’s accurate because I simply don’t think the Ukrainians would be fool enough to call any of their units “Nachtigall”. Azov 3rd Assault Brigade was said to have moved up there not long ago but that’s not listed. Maybe the rest is accurate. More than two brigades anyway, as TTG says.
For what it’s worth – I’m not military – I’ll stick my neck out and assert this is another Krynki, writ large. PR tactics. Some fool back at NATO HQ doing his level best to play into the Russians’ hands. The Russians don’t care whether the attrition is offensive or defensive, just as long as they get to attrite.
EO,
Attrition works both ways
Eric – I’m not sure it cuts equally both ways in this war.
As for this operation, the Russians have had sabotage and reconnaissance groups operating in the Sumy area. They’ve known for at least a month that Ukrainian units were in the area in force. Their Intelligence in Kharkov will be as good or better than elsewhere in the country so I’d guess they’d also have known about the units the Ukrainians were going to rush in. They’ve been evacuating villages in the area for some time.
The Russians have a superfluity of troops in that area should it get out of hand. Roepke, stoutly pro-Ukrainian, is fulminating about the use of good Ukrainian troops there in quantity when they’re urgently needed lower down. Other pro-Ukrainian analysts are similarly nonplussed. Losses in the first wave of attack were inordinately high. Northern Group of Forces claim 40% casualties inflicted. No AD. Troops in reserve are also being attrited.
Now the Ukrainian troops are exposed to the massive firepower the Russians can use on them without being able to send much the other way. Some Russian or pro-Russian outlets are in their usual woe is me mode and reckoning Gerasimov screwed up. Somehow I don’t think so.
It’s a suicide mission. A well planned and well coordinated suicide mission by all accounts, but a gift to the Russians whether the Russians knew it was coming or not.
So my view when I first heard of it. Been wondering since then why it was done. Lots of talk about how it’ll put us in a stronger position in the peace negotiations. Except there aren’t going to be any “peace negotiations”. Merely arrangements about the terms of surrender. Even the politicians in Washington and Berlin must have got the message on that by now.
So that’s the question to focus on. Why, having thrown away Ukrainian troops over the past two years and more in just about every way it’s possible to devise, are they being thrown away like this now? To get to the NPP? In line with previous sabotage attempts on nuclear facilities here and elsewhere but seems to be a long shot.
American press claiming NATO knew nothing about this operation. And pigs can fly.
EO,
A suicide mission? You’d like it to be, but I don’t know how you could be so sure of that. You’re seriously underestimating Ukraine – or overestimating Russia. Part of that mindset is continuing to buy into the America hating Russian shills theory that Russia aims to “win” by attrition. IMO, you are mistaken.
I reject that entirely, Eric. And find it offensive.
I do not like suicide missions. And we’ve been sending the Ukrainians on a suicide mission since February 2022.
Nor do I like chickenhawks. That whether in England, Germany, or the United States. Those who urge a wrecked country into further disaster while knowing they themselves are at no risk.
The popcorn chickenhawks of the States. All brag and strutting and macho gun talk. But soft as butter were they themselves to be asked to do the dying, I place my hopes on those in your country who hold to a better tradition, for all they get called “Russian shills” by the chickenhawks.
EO,
We’re not sending Ukrainians anywhere. Putin is sending Russians into Ukraine. You have a real problem with people defending themselves against invaders. I don’t know where that comes from. If NATO or China invaded Russia, would you expect the Russians not to fight back?
TTG,
Part of the mindset I’m criticizing all the time as “anti-American” holds that no one in the world has agency accept the US, Israel and maybe the UK. All other countries either do we as we say or react to what we do.
For that reason, Russia, post 2/2022, is seen as exceptional and heroic. They have woken up and freed themselves from our evil spell. The invasion of Ukraine is an act of resistance against the great satanic, imperialist, capitalist, swine (us). Similarly, Hamas and Iran deserve praise for fighting back to the extent they can, even if that involves terrible acts of terrorism.
So, naturally, Ukraine is just another zombie US/UK proxy in the minds of people living with that paradigm. Btw, they believe NATO largely consists of zombies as well. The whole thing is really just the US and UK and their lapdogs.
This anti-American crowd also points to some very real decadence in our culture- all the sick transgender nonsense, DEI, low education standards and attainment, high levels of crime, consumerism and materialism – as defining the west and the US, as opposed to being a troubling, but correctable, freakshow relegated mostly to our urban environments.
The anti-Americans assert that Russia (and various mulsim killers) are fighting against all of that decadence as well. They are defenders of righteous civilization. So they must be better than us at war fighting, they must win, they are humanity’s only hope.
And often works badly, as with the Russians here, where it was unplanned.
That Russian Lgov-Belgorod railroad is a primary LOC for Russia’s Task Group North near Kharkiv and further south in Belgorod. Reportedly a 🇺🇦 “Battalion-sized element from the 22nd Mechanized Brigade supported by roughly a battalion-sized element from the 88th Mechanized Brigade reached the tracks yesterday afternoon in Sudzha.” Which may be the reason for the incursion.
But I’m also hearing other reasons on Twitter and Telegraph:
1] There were elements of two Russian Motorized Rifle Regiments near the border. So was this was a spoiling attack to hit a Russian staging area for an attack towards Sumy?
2] There has been speculation that they intended to destroy Gazprom’s Sudzha gas metering station that still supplies natural gas to Hungary. But they are in control of ot now and have not stopped the flow – yet. There are reports that Ukraine’s Naftogaz hopes to keep the gas flowing.
3] Kursk NPP or a nuke weapons storage site? That’s a bridge too far IMHO.
The stories of Wagner coming to the rescue may be only stories as far as I can tell, but imagine if it’s true and they have to rely on them to clean up this mess. It’s going to look really bad if so. That’s one of the primary objectives of this action – a festering embarrassment to the RF leadership and subsequent unrest. That and seizing control of the gas control station to the EU. There are reports of indiscriminate shooting of civilians including W&Ch.
leith,
Drat! You beat me to it.
BenAris is also speculating about the gas metering station being the primary objective and he also highlights the Hungary connection. It makes sense to me.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-security/ukraine-hopes-to-keep-transit-gas-flowing-despite-military-strikes-near-key-russian-metering-station/2-1-1689744
Leith,
Why do they need to reach the tracks rather than just get into artillery or drone range?
Fred,
They’ve already taken three rail stations.
TTG,
why take the casualties to do that when you can take them under fire from a distance? How long do they hold them and at what cost?
Fred,
The rail lines in the land bridge to Crimea are under ATACMS fire control. That doesn’t make those rail lines unusable. Occupying the rail lines, as in Sudzha, makes them unusable to the Russians. Big difference between fire control and occupation of an LOC.
Fred –
What I’d like to see them do is tear up several miles of tracks and bend the rails into Sherman’s Neckties. Both the Lgov-Belgorod line and the Lgov-Sumy-Kyiv line. And destroy the bridges.
Your drone-range comment is prescient. There have been at least two Ukrainian UAV attacks on moving Russian trains that I know of. Although AFAIK they did not cause derailments. But maybe a Baba Yaga UAV could?
leith,
I’ve read the Baba Yaga bomber drones operate in a bubble 25 km in front of the troops the FPV drones are in a bubble 10 km in front. These bubbles are supported by a heavy EW presence. Phone service has been disrupted by Ukrainian cyber attacks.
TTG –
I’ve read FPV drones are now targeting tail rotors on Russian helicopters. Some successful.
IMO, Ukraine is trying to prove that it is still a viable fighting force worthy of massive funding – and perhaps direct NATO involvement in the war. If the brigades are stopped and surrounded and in danger of being wiped out, then NATO must immediately save the day with air, missiles, etc before it’s too late. If the brigades at least achieve some nominal objectives, like Russian rail lines, then Ukraine can win and more money should be poured into Zelensky’s and pals’ coffers. Ukraine couldn’t just sit there doing nothing any longer; not with the MENA stealing the headlines.
That said, the psychological effect is good. All the Russia shills were saying how Ukraine was about to collapse any day are now scrambling. This can’t be playing well in Russia either. Russia sucks at war fighting – and it’s becoming undeniable to all but the most delusional.
When Larry Johnson’s your commander,
Don’t forget to take a gander,
At predictions ever grander,
The Man From Glad tole Misses Hermione Bystander:
“I didn’t get to use no lousy slander …”
Then a cowboy thought she was a cow and tried to brand her.
——————-
The person who composed that meaningless drivel is now under lock and key and heavily sedated.
Eric Newhill,
I don’t think that Russia sucks at war fighting so much as the US is way ahead of everyone. Way ahead.
Russia sucks at war fighting is not something history teaches us.
Jovan –
They will adapt eventually when they change leadership. Ukraine should pray that pinhead Putin and his current team of knuckleheads in the Kremlin stay in charge.
Leith,
You may be aware that NATO has restructured itself. Instead of each member state attempting to be a complete military package onto itself, each state is emphasizing a particular aspect of war fighting – e.g. Germany produces ammo, US produces armor, Poland is raising infantry, etc, etc….. and there is a lot of rail and road building occurring from ports large enough to handle those massive transport ships to Ukraine. Other logistics are being developed.
All of the work is pointed at Russia. When the first phase is complete, NATO will have the ability to deliver 800K troops, numerous armor and artillery brigades + all of the air support, bullets, beans, etc. to the Russian border in two months or less. The work should be complete by some time late next year.
So, yeah, Russia better figure out how to fight.
It doesn’t matter what they accomplished in WW2. That was three generations ago. Harping on a pet theme of mine, because I really hate drooling down your chin level of stupid combined with virtue signaling, it’s funny that we are admonished by self-appointed internet priests to not be racist and say negative things about an entire people, but war fighting is just in the Russians DNA. It’s just how they are. Yeah, sure.
That was interesting Eric, though I lost you there a bit at the end of the last paragraph. But before you got there you explained for me in detail why I have such a grim foreboding regarding Russia’s prospects. It’s seemed to me for awhile that if enough effort went into it that they could be beat fairly badly. The problem is ..
Where do those 800 thousand troops come from?
I would be interested to hear your answer. I’m not being sarcastic by the way, you likely just forgot to write it down. Where do you find young people crazy or stupid enough to throw their lives away or live with permanent disabilities? If you find the time let us know. It usually takes a good bit of .. -coercion- (on the part of drill Sargents and governments who can impress and imprison) and …- youth & its accompanying naivety/idealism. But it’s very probably doable since its been done so many times before and there’s always manufactured tragedies like sinking the Maine or pearl harbor to get things rolling with the help of the criminal (in my opinion) media.
I’m not saying there aren’t legitimate reasons to go to war, I just personally haven’t been blessed in my lifetime – 72 yrs – with having seen one but many people would disagree and cite desert storm or 911. Be that as it may, the glorification of tragedy and humiliating victimhood was epic, operatic, overdone, continuous, ubiquitous, incredibly banal and best of all we had George Dubya Bush reading about a little goat (it was a little goat wasn’t it?) to little school children while 3,000 stockbrokers threw themselves out of eighty and ninety story windows or were burned alive or crushed to smithereens under mountains of steel, glass, office equipment and probably quite a significant quantity of linoleum and tile.
Anyway I’m getting off topic, you certainly get the idea … Getting hundreds of thousands if not millions of fine young men to throw their lives away is one of those seemingly supremely difficult tasks, that like inventing the telephone or transistor or building the empire state building and climbing Mt Everest is somehow something that human beings are quite capable of achieving.
Actually the Russian war record historically isn’t very good at all unfortunately though they certainly are a hardy, brave and physically strong and resilient people. DNA is maybe a factor but geography (no natural barriers to invasion), climate (cold and long nights) and mind-numbing bureaucracy, corruption and extreme centralization are at least as important. I think they never developed “rule of law” because they were overrun and destroyed so often by invasion and revolution that they never felt enough confidence in their future on a personal scale NOT to steal. But in that they were hardly unique. Let’s save discussions of asiatic despotism for when we’ve completed our units on the robber Baron era and the genocide of the American Indians. I like you abjure the high priests and priestesses and gender trans-homo-sado-dysmorphic ritualists of correctness because I listened once to George Carlin explain that “Indian” referred to Indios or In God and not India, so it’s not a slur to call them Indians, but be careful.
I’m not confident with discussions about DNA – remember “Mr Colt made us all equal” (not the declaration of independence?)
I’ll close with another Telegram comment which is on topic regarding any future discussion of warring on Russia – it speaks to density of troops on a long long battle front and not DNA or history. I hope we won’t have to return to it because I despise war but fear we might have to. Meanwhile remember the great advantage of America – not only two huge oceans as buffers but a president who won a fixed election in 2000 and who read about a little goat to little school children as thousands of stockbrokers died quite unexpectedly one fine September day. Russia never had a president who did that, nor a Tsar or Tsarina. We never had Potemkin villages though, did we? I don’t think so. They did. Now for the good part:
———————–
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/132999
The problem with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive near Kursk is not the number of enemy troops and equipment, but the tactics of maneuver warfare, for which we have not been prepared since Balakleya.
As the SVO took on a positional character, the opinion that maneuver warfare was a thing of the past became dominant. But time after time, the enemy proves to us that under certain input conditions this is not so. Everyone remembers the Kharkov counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the fall of 2022, when the enemy was able to take advantage of the insufficient density of the Russian Armed Forces and quickly occupy vast territories.
It would seem that after the number of troops in the SVO zone increased several times, this problem would resolve itself. Unfortunately, no.
The front extends over 1.5 thousand km – this is equivalent to the LBS on 22.06.1941, only it is occupied by several times smaller forces. The RF Armed Forces (as well as the Ukrainian Armed Forces) cannot build a continuous impenetrable wall along the entire border. Both sides rely on a network of “strongholds” occupied by small groups of infantry and minefields, and the reinforcements and reserves located in the near rear “serve” several such positions at once . At the same time, the density of troops in quiet areas can be significantly inferior to the same in places where serious battles are taking place.
This is almost always enough anyway, especially if reconnaissance has uncovered a concentration of attackers. The most striking example is the failure of the raid on Belgorod in March of this year. The enemy was unable to overcome the minefields, and the “strongholds” withstood the onslaught, reserves arrived and staged a massacre for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Problems begin when the first line of defense is broken through. Since Balakleya, the Russian Armed Forces have not developed an antidote to the Ukrainian Armed Forces groups on light vehicles that are spreading like metastases through the rear.
A solution could be to deploy teams of FPV drone operators to rear areas as a mobile reserve (ideally, Lancets) and create our own “ranger” units capable of quickly responding to such breakthroughs.
Until this is done, local successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such as the ongoing raid on Kursk, are inevitable.
F&L,
NATO member state have troop totals of 3.4 million. Then there is Ukraine, which would add more. Poland could probably increase its force size with some good propaganda.
Young men have always been wasted in wars. There has never been a shortage ready, willing and able. Most of the troops are in support roles and fairly safe. Just tell them the right BS and they’ll go marching off into oblivion if need be.
Eric,
Thank you for your timely answer. As usual you’re right. Except you kind of like killing children too much or at least cheering from the bleachers. If it wasn’t for that one little drawback I’d be happy to let you babysit. When you were a child was your school blown up by a bomb? Were you disturbed at all by the 365 armed police who watched for 90 minutes while one lone gunman murdered 18 elementary school kids in Uvalde Texas doing nothing? American politice Eric. Rah rah rah. USA USA USA .. Or did you figure they were just lousy good for nothing immigrant Mexicans and had it coming? It’s possible the governor of that state discovered copies of the protocols of the learned elders of Zion in one of their book bags or little lunch boxes with pictures of Lassie and Rin Tin Tin painted on the outside. When their pet puppies heard about them being all shot to death while hundreds of big brave police stood by doing nothing, the puppies, who had been so sad wondering why they never returned from school, cheered up immediately when it was explained to them that they might possibly have been carrying antisemitic literature. “Arf arf arf,” barked the puppies. Which meant “we’re glad you told us that finally, now we feel much better!”
Quiz for today Eric.
Why were the puppies so happy to hear about it really? Think. You are a highly intelligent man Eric. The real reason. Puppies can be devious little liars. Answer tomorrow. No hints.
F&L,
I like children very much and the thought of harming or killing them is abhorrent to me. That’s me, the little me, the ego that gets to indulge itself for its own self-interest.
The larger me, which goes beyond my personal attitudes, likes, dislikes, etc. – and that isn’t tasked with anything any more – understands what monsters exist in the world and what it takes to defeat them in war. Entire societies are dedicated to our destruction and/or that of allies. Entire societies with ideas of how society should be run that would put millions – even billions – of souls in pain with no hope. The cost/benefit analysis favors total war against such enemies, which means that some number of the enemy’s women and children will die.
Neither I nor i make the rules. If you get to close to the edge of a high rise roof and end up falling 40 stories to your death, you can curse gravity all the way down and die as a jackass. If you have a puppy in your arms when you stupidly blunder around around the edge and fall, the puppy will go “arf, arf arf”, in terror, all the way down, but won’t morph into a gravity cursing jackass. Only humans are arrogant enough to achieve that transformation.
Eric –
Fancy footwork and a flurry of punishing last round body punches impress but referee rules:
Ref: That’s well and good for the Newhill corner but judges hound his corner for hushing Puppies in death dive, threaten to deduct points for evading quiz question on Puppies’ glee anomaly.
Award extra sudden death round on considerations of style and vigor but warn don’t try it again.
———-
We interrupt with breaking news on the recent Statement of United States Vice President Kamala Harris who is leading former President Donald Trump in recent polling on the 2024 US Presidential election.
❗️Kamala Harris says ‘too many’ civilian deaths in Gaza:🙉
US Vice-President Kamala Harris has condemned the loss of civilian life in an Israeli air strike against a school building in Gaza on Saturday.
More than 70 people were killed at the building which sheltered displaced Palestinians, the director of a hospital has told the BBC.
Ms Harris said “far too many” civilians had been killed “yet again”and reiterated calls for a hostage deal and a ceasefire, echoing comments made by the White House.
Speaking at a campaign event in Phoenix, Arizona, Ms Harris said Israel had a right to “go after Hamas” but also has “an important responsibility” to avoid civilian casualties.
Saturday’s air strike has been criticised by Western and regional powers, with Egypt saying it showed Israel had no desire to reach a ceasefire or end the Gaza war.
Fadl Naeem, head of al-Ahli Hospital where many of the casualties were taken, said around 70 victims were identified in the hours after the strike – with the remains of many others so badly disfigured that identification was difficult.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0lx2xgn55o
——————-
This is just the Battle of The Bulge repeated as farce.
Sure, that battle caused Eisenhower to “scramble”, but the result of it all was to hasten the end of that war by at least six months.
I don’t much doubt that Zelensky will use his four (or is that six) F-16 in a “bold” strike on Russian airfields. He might even call it “Operation Bodenplatte Licht”.
This is all a PR stunt, intended to do nothing more than to grab the headlines that Zelensky so desperately needs. Nothing more, and no less, and the only interesting question about this operation is how many of the few survivors of the Krynki Bridgehead are having flashbacks.
Yeah, Right,
The F-16s have been see flying over the Kherson front today.
Zelensky needs those F-16 to pull a PR stunt otherwise they are a waste of time to him.
Simply flying them around the front lines doing what they are supposed to be doing isn’t going to be enough.
Yeah, Right,
Why? Six F-16s aren’t going to make a big difference. It’s going to take a while to get enough of them with trained pilots and to integrate them into Ukrainian operations.
Yeah, Right.
I suspect the offensive was deliberately held until the F-16s were operational. There are too few of them to cover much, and the Russians can pick and choose their FAB strikes in about a half dozen different places. But this offensive tempts the Russians to deploy their FAB carriers in a predictable area. Pretty good bet those carriers are currently the F-16’s primary target.
At any rate the Russian mil-bloggers love to show FAB strikes, but as yet I haven’t seen one from this new front.
Mark Logan,
FAB strikes require a stationery target. They are striking on the Ukrainian side of the border, but they can’t be reliably targeted against a moving offensive. According to the latest Tom Cooper (Sarcastosaurus) report, the Ukrainians inside Russia haven’t seen FABs, or any air attack for the last 36 hours. Their drone/EW/ADA umbrella is doing its job, plus the Russians are slow in reacting. That won’t last forever.
Mark Logan –
Hundreds of those FAB glide bombs went up in smoke yesterday when Lipetsk Airbase “was struck by a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack that caused numerous explosions and fires.”
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1821761032492073097
“A warehouse containing guided aerial bombs and other facilities near the airbase were hit, with multiple sources of ignition resulting in a massive fire and multiple detonations, according to the Ukrainian general staff. Damage to the aircraft at the base was still being assessed the morning after the attack. The governor of Lipetsk reported detonations and said that six people had been injured.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-general-staff-confirms-strike-072010288.html
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1821949584970572180
In fairness. the Russians are very good at warfighting, especially with fires.
Their problem is that they suck at logistics and that is what the Ukrainians have been hitting since the failed 2023 Offensives.
My father was a Merchant Mariner who made the Murmansk Run. He liked the Russian people but found them careless with things brough a long distance at great risk. I have seen many similar accounts.
JM,
Suck at logistics/suck at war fighting.
The Russians do not “suck at logistics”. They insist on managing logistics in such a way that it is difficult to erode under the pressures and setbacks of war.
Hence their reliance upon manpower and muscle: where in advance or in retreat the muscle-mass of a human being is the same, and so is the logistics output of that human.
The Western way of logistics is quite different: machinery, etc., to enable one man to do the work of many.
Great, in fact, fantastic.
Until you have to retreat, and all that machinery has to be abandoned. At which point you are left with one man, and his shovel.
The Russians have some good logistics ideas (“Units of Fire” for example) But in the main, the complaint has always been the centrality of ” “NICHEVO!”
Had the Russians taken Kiev, they would have 3 LoCs into the AOR. Now they don’t have any that are not being stressed.
“Had the Russians taken Kiev,”
How were they ever going to take Kiev with an initial invasion force of around 200,000 men, John?
Ukraine’s Wacht am Rhein.
Pasted from the Wall Street Urinal this morning. Will Iran do something? I sympathize with them but in my estimation they would be borderline crazy to hit Israel hard. How can you attack a country which has nukes when you don’t? Wisemen will cite Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan etc and say it’s been done many times before with success. True. But the difference is that the US didn’t use nukes and wasn’t inclined to even when they suffered serious losses. Israel will pull out all the stops and destroy them. Maybe I’m wrong, but only slightly. And read this note below – the big Satan is quite serious, no? Look at Syria and Iraq now. Wasn’t an earthquake. Berlin, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Dresden, Hamburg in the 1940s. The free world then moved on to Pyongyang, Hanoi, … B-52s. November 1963 Dallas – rifle .. August 1968 Los Angeles – handgun.
So place your bets. Iran will do nothing unless they are raving suicidal lunatics.
———————–
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-warns-iran-of-serious-risk-if-it-conducts-major-attack-on-israel-fddd0715
U.S. Warns Iran of ‘Serious Risk’ if It Conducts Major Attack on Israel
Biden administration has been mounting intensive campaign to encourage both sides to de-escalate.
The U.S. has warned Iran that its newly elected government and economy could suffer a devastating blow if it were to mount a major attack against Israel, a U.S. official said.
The warning has been communicated to Tehran directly as well as through intermediaries, said the official, who declined to provide specifics.
“The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” said the official.
Those messages have also put Tehran on notice “that there is a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path,” the official added.
The Biden administration has been mounting an intensive campaign to discourage Iran, its proxies and Israel from undertaking military action that would escalate tensions in the region as Washington tries to salvage prospects of a cease-fire in Gaza.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. has communicated “that message directly to Iran,” though he didn’t provide details of what was said or how it was communicated.
F&L,
What Iran will do is this – continue to take its beatings like a dog.
If you don’t like missile strikes inside your country, don’t play with terrorists. If you don’t want your guys blasted, don’t be terrorists. It’s very simple; so simple medieval cavemen should be able to grasp the cause and effect relationship. And yes, Iran agrees that it was indeed a missile strike (despite someone here saying it was a hidden bomb).
Everyone here – even Col Lang did it – occasionally becomes frenetic over an imagined imminent Muslim response to some perceived insult by Israel or the US. Nothing like what is imagined ever happens. WW3 and Armageddon have been among some of the outcomes of the fantasy revenge scenarios. In reality, at most, there’s some half-assed gesture, and then nothing other than big talking angry mullahs (is there any other kind?), flag and effigy burning and the rest of the usual impotent idiocy.
What is Iran going to do? They’re too far away to attack Israel even if they had the nerve to do it, which they don’t. Hamas is largely out of the picture now, rotting beneath the rubble and Hezbollah is next up for the same. Jordan won’t attack and neither will Egypt nor Syria. Turkey is also too far away and is in a complicated position due to NATO membership and other factors. Iran’s last big missile and drone swarm was lame and they probably shot their wad on that one anyhow. Regardless, they don’t want to get pounded by accurate and well targeted Israel return fire. So it comes down to Hezbollah. Israel learned a lot since the last conflict with those guys and, IMO, would steamroll through Lebanon with only slightly more difficulty than they did through Gaza + there is the US to assist with better defended sectors.
It’s as plain as the vanilla yogurt stain on my t-shurt, Eric. They’re suicidal psycho nut jobs if they retaliate. And if they don’t, they’re just psycho nut jobs.
But may I add with emphasis – I sure would like to see a giant king Kong gorilla foot stamp the Israelis like the scurvy cockroaches they are. For a long time. Two king Kong gorilla feet even better. Maybe for 10 months.
———
Almost 100 killed in Israeli strike on Gaza school, civil defense says.
At least 93 Palestinians were killed in a strike on a school in Gaza City that was sheltering displaced people, Gaza’s civil defense said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/10/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-al-tabeen/
From the article:
The strike follows two attacks Thursday, when more than a dozen people were killed at Gaza City schools sheltering displaced people, Palestinian officials said. After the attacks, the IDF also said that the school compounds were being used by Hamas.
Before Thursday’s strikes, the U.N. Human Rights Office said in a statement Monday that at least 17 schools in Gaza had been targeted in the past month and that dozens of reported deaths suggested “a failure to comply with the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precautions in carrying out these attacks.”
————————–
Ok Eric, can you name some numbers greater than 17? I bet you sure can. 18, 46, 123, 3455 and 2 raised to the 456th power.
You know what else I bet you know, Eric? This:
King Kong sized gorillas need to piss several times a day. And also
I love these writing these notes we exchange Eric. They let me get things off my chest that needs to get off my chest, and I am mighty grateful.
Looks like a reckless desperate move by Ukraine. The WSJ is reporting the US was not informed about it. Whatever the case it’s not sustainable and makes Ukraine weaker in other areas. Russia continues to make small gains along the line. That would not happen if Ukraine would keep the line stable instead of these frenzied style charges.
babelthuap,
The 2 day Ukrainian offensive has covered more ground than 2 years of Russian offensives. How sustainable it is depends on how sustainable Russia’s response is, but it is damned risky.
There is “risky”, and there is “irresponsible”.
This PR stunt is the latter, not the former.
It will turn out to be as “sustainable” as the Krynki bridgehead, and the Russian “response” will be the same: bottle it up, then lay down artillery until the Ukrainians finally break and run for home.
Russia’s goal was never to overtake the entire country. If anyone doesn’t understand this by now they will never understand it. Just the eastern side. Rest of it is worthless to Russia. They also never had the resources for a war on that scale.
They did penetrate deep early but that was only to force Ukraine to the table. When that didn’t work it switched to a very slow methodical grind and has remained that way.
The only question is how long can Russia keep it up. It appears for a while. Ukraine can’t keep it up that long. They are running out of bodies hence these berzerk pushes to slow Russia and buy a little more time. Time is running out though.
babelthuap,
It’s true the goal wasn’t to overtake all of Ukraine. It was to overthrow the government and install one that was compliant to the Kremlin’s wishes.
So how do you explain Putin’s willingness to negotiate with that same government in both Turkey and via the Israelis?
Negotiations that they carried out in good faith until Boris waddled into Kiev and urged Zelensky to a t Inextreme bad faith.
Yeah, Right,
The efforts to kill/capture Zelenskiy and his government in the first few days of the invasion failed. Negotiations were the next best thing.
Pure speculation.
Could have been to force Ukr to negociate.
aleksandar,
Spetsnaz or VDV attacks on the Mariinsky Palace were not meant as a negotiation tactic. It was meant to kill or capture Zelenskiy.
So the Russian spetsnaz launched an attack on the Mariinsky Palace in the very heart of Kiev and were roundly defeated, but the Ukrainians didn’t manage to kill or capture a single one of them.
I’m genuinely curious: once their dastardly assault on Zelensky was defeated how did those (defeated, remember) special forces get back out again to safety?
Yeah, Right,
They got out the same way they got in. Kyiv was chaos at that time.
Yeah Right –
They never got to Mariinskyi Palace. They weren’t just after Zelenskii, but also senior Duma leaders. On 25 Feb 2022 a spokesman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Viktor Andrusov, said that 60 saboteurs had been killed in Kyiv. Some were in civilian clothes. Who knows whether any were captured. If so, being in civvies means they would not get POW status.
For the record I hate Russia. I love the US Constitution. Waging these proxy wars does nothing for US citizens but more debt. Screw that.
Let them duke it out. All it does is line the pockets of Congress and their family members. NO. Enough. I hope Russia smashed the uni-party into the ground. I hope China does the same. I also HATE CHINA. Screw this BS. Focus on US citizens.
TTG, Zelensky was quite insistent that they “got in” via parachute.
I don’t know about you, but I find it very hard to believe that they “got out” via parachute.
And, let’s be honest here: Kiev may have been chaos at the time but, again, Zelensky himself insisted that the spetsnaz forces were defeated.
They just…. what? Ninja’ed their way out of a city of 2 million?
Really?
Or is this just complete nonsense spun out of whole cloth by the Ukrainians?
Because – and I’m being very charitable here – the only “evidence” we have that this assassination attempt took place was “The Ukrainians say so”.
Leith: “On 25 Feb 2022 a spokesman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Viktor Andrusov, said”….
Well, there we have it: the ENTIRE evidence that we have that this assassination/kidnap attempt ever took place is “the Ukrainians said”.
Leith: ….”that 60 saboteurs had been killed in Kyiv.”
Sooooooo, no bodies displayed to the eager west?
Leith: …”Who knows whether any were captured.”
leith, if any spetsnaz troops were captured then they would have been the first group of prisoners that would have been swapped.
Leith: “If so, being in civvies means they would not get POW status.”
leith, the laws of war do not say that you have to be in uniform when you engage in a firefight.
They have to fulfill these requirements:
(a) that of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
(b) that of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
(c) that of carrying arms openly;
(d) that of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.
Yeah Right –
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-february-military-vehicle-with-russian-saboteurs-shot
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/02/26/7325975/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/25/gun-battle-kyiv-ambush-russian-plot/
https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/02/25/obolon-district-in-kyiv/
(Note: Obolon district is home to the Ukrainian Parliament)
PS – Looks like some of them in Kyiv were in Ukrainian uniform. They tried the same phony uniform thing in Nikopol:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t23aex/russian_spetsnazspecial_forces_saboteurs_dressed/
leith, absolutely NONE of those links of yours is relevant to this thread.
NONE of them.
The argument in this thread is whether there is any truth to this assertion by TTG: “The efforts to kill/capture Zelenskiy and his government in the first few days of the invasion failed.”
You can point me to any number of Russian saboteurs operating inside Kiev and THAT IS IRRELEVANT TO THE ISSUE.
You can point me to articles claiming that Russian forces were operating reconn missions inside Kiev and THAT IS IRRELEVANT TO THE ISSUE.
In uniform? IRRELEVANT.
Out of uniform? IRRELEVANT.
TTG’s claim lives or dies on a single point: did the Russians attempt to kill or capture Zelensky in late February 2022?
And if you go and do your oh-so-diligent google searching you will see that the one and only source for *that* claim is ….. Zelensky himself.
There is absolutely zero corroborative evidence for that claim other than “Zelensky said…”
And what Zelensky said was crystal-clear: Spestnaz forces were parachuted into the heart of Kiev (how?) where they assaulted his location and were roundly defeated, after which the story abruptly stops.
I stand by what I have already written: Zelensky’s story (remember, the ONLY source for this claim) is preposterous.
Russian helicopters/transports had no ability to fly over Kiev and disgorge paratroopers, and any such paratroopers would have had no ability to escape out of the middle of Kiev once defeated in battle.
No ability whatsoever.
The entire story is preposterous.
Stories about Russian saboteurs? Sure, that’s plausible, but THAT’S ANOTHER STORY.
Stories about Russian reconn forces slinking around Kiev in civilian clothes? Sure, that’s plausible but, again, THAT’S ANOTHER STORY.
I just despair at the lack of critical thinking on these threads, the swiftness with which people gish-gallop off into the distance when they actually have no evidence whatsoever for their claims.
Yeah, Right,
Your ranting denials are tiresome. Take this wikipedia summary and the references for that summary and do your own research.
Yes. US and China do the same thing. If anybody tries to form battle positions along the US and CCP borders they will get their ass handed to them. Russia, it was unclear but now it is not. Get that off their border. Lesson learned. I salute Ukraine though for finding out for me. Valiant effort but now we know.
Yeah Right –
You asked for photos so I gave you photos. So your response is to say it misses the point?
Gotta say I admire your bullheadedness, even though you are wrong. You should maybe change your username.
PS – It was the Ukrainian military that said “parachuted” strike teams were going after Zelenskyy, not Zelenskyy himself. There definitely was a foiled attempt on both him and Shmyhal the Prime Minister. But nobody parachuted directly into downtown Kyiv for that. There was panic and confusion that day and the parachute story could have been conflated with the VDV airborne attack on Antonov Airfield in Hostomel not far away.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-putin-assured-me-at-moscow-meeting-he-wouldnt-kill-zelensky/
Naftali Bennett: “Do you intend to kill Zelensky?”
Putin: “I won’t kill Zelensky,”
Naftali Bennett: “I need to understand. Are you giving me your word that you won’t kill Zelensky?”
Putin: “I won’t kill Zelensky.”
Naftali Bennett:”I’ve just come out of a meeting — [Putin] is not going to kill you.”
Zelensky: “Are you sure?”
Naftali Bennett: “100 percent. [Putin’s] not going to kill you.”
Naftali Bennett: “Two hours later, Zelensky went to his office, and did a selfie in the office, [in which the Ukrainian president said,] ‘I’m not afraid.’”
And as that article reports, ALL the claims of assassination attempts on Zelensky are completely and utterly unconfirmed.
They entirely rely upon trust in the statements of Zelensky and his underlings, and they recollections of Bennett (who has no dog in this fight) is that Zelensky is a conniving and untrustworthy narrator.
Yeah, Right,
And your belief relies upon trust in the statements of Putin. He also said he would not invade Ukraine.
TTG: “And your belief relies upon trust in the statements of Putin.”
I am pointing out that I have an INDEPENDENT source of information, and that INDEPENDENT source of information confirmed that both actors in this drama behaved in a way that is consistent with my claims and are inconsistent with yours.
Do you have a single INDEPENDENT source that confirms – or even supports – the Ukrainian claim that they foiled an assault on the Ukrainian government buildings where Zelensky was located?
Yeah, Right,
Actors in this drama include Kadyrov’s commandos, Redut PMC and the Wagner Group. Those tasked with decapitating the government in Kyiv are among those units.
leith: “You asked for photos so I gave you photos.”
I asked for photos of an assault on Zelensky’s office, leith.
You have provided none.
I have already said that I find it plausible that the Russians would send saboteurs into Kiev, or that the Russians would send reconn missions into Kiev.
You have provided me with photos of those.
Well done, leith, well done indeed.
Yeah Right –
Naftali Bennett? The ultra-nationalist that is more nuts than Nuts-and-Yahoo. Bennett’s the guy that just said 40,000 dead Palestinians are not enough. In the 2006 Lebanon War as the commander of an Israeli commando unit he became hysterical and was responsible for the Qana Massacre. And now he refuses to call Putin a war criminal.
Are you joking with us now.
Not counting the February 2022 assassination attempts on Zelenskyy, there have been three other plots to kill or kidnap him, one in 2023 and two in 2024.
leith: “Naftali Bennett?”
Yeah, the man who didn’t have a dog in this fight.
leith: “The ultra-nationalist that is more nuts than Nuts-and-Yahoo.”
Yeah, he has a dog in that fight.
leith: “Bennett’s the guy that just said 40,000 dead Palestinians are not enough.”
Again, he has a dog in that fight.
leith: “Are you joking with us now.”
No, I’m following a very useful dictum: evaluate the source and the information separately.
The source has no dog in this fight, and therefore no reason to lie.
The information has not been refuted by either Putin nor Zelensky, and is corroborated by the fact that Zelensky did emerge from his bunker right when Bennett told Z he was safe.
Coincidence, surely.
leith: ” there have been three other plots to kill or kidnap him, one in 2023 and two in 2024.”
*sigh* So tedious.
So says Zelensky.
I do not doubt that Zelensky’s life is under threat, but those doing the threatening are much closer to him than Moscow.
Yeah, Right,
You’re still taking Putin at his word. He also said he was not going to invade Ukraine. He lied. Unless you believe Russia still hasn’t invaded Ukraine in your universe..
Yeah Right –
Zelenskyy did not say so. The Poles said so on one of those occasions. The other times it was Budanov’s GUR that caught the perps red-handed.
It doesn’t matter what Putin told Bennett. Putin’s a flagrant liar and has long been proven to use assassins as weapons of terror. And BTW your Bennett article does not say anything about Putin refusing to kidnap Zelenskyy.
“The only question is how long can Russia keep it up. It appears for a while. Ukraine can’t keep it up that long. They are running out of bodies hence these berzerk pushes to slow Russia and buy a little more time. Time is running out though.”
Considering the 2023 Ukrainian Offensives, you have a point.
However, since then the Ukrainians have battered the Russian LoCs, which is what this appears to be.
A lot of smart people have over-estimated the Russians since this began.
Covered, yes, but not conquered.
As Colonel Lang and Frederick the Great used to say “l’audace, l’audace”.
Day three:
Breach is 56 kilometers wide, 21 kilometers deep at some points.
Ukraine has >400 kilometers under tactical control
Beyond that area, Ukrainian special forces are conducting DRG ops in several axes deep in the enemy rear. It’s a mini version what they did during the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, classic General Syrskyi.
It’s not the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, leith.
It’s the Krynki Bridgehead all over again, and it will meet the same fate.
Yeah, Right –
Check out the substack link I left below. Simplicius is very pro-Russian and he’s not so confident you’re right. It’s a big complex operation prepared well in advance. Zelensky quite sneakily put 8 to 10 healthy brigades together.
I read Simplicius regularly.
His recent article contains lots of “ifs” i.e. “if” the Ukrainians have more brigades then *this* could happen, and “if” the Ukrainians can open a second front then *this* could take place.
And I agree: “if” the Ukrainians haven’t shown their entire hand then they can cause more mischief.
But I don’t think so. This is going to be a (very) miniature Battle of the Bulge, and it’s going to have the same ending.
Just as I think Zelensky is going to attempt to use his handful of F-16 in a mini (a very mini) Operation Bodenplatte.
Sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Still, Zelensky gets his headlines, so that’s nice.
YR,
Simplicius is a biased cheerleader. A smart one, but on a mission all the same.
Eric, Simplicius is indeed a cheerleader. He makes no attempt to pretend otherwise.
As for “bias”, well, yeah, if you are cheering for one side then confirmation bias is going to happen.
I do it. You do it. TTG does it.
But I find his analysis to be smart – as you say – and I find it refreshing that he is willing to spell out the caveats that surround his analsyis.
So, yeah, he is “biased”, but he is not “dogmatic”.
[deleted]
Yeah Right –
Krynky and other beachheads at Kozachi Laheri & Oleshky tied up not only the 60,000 Russian troops already on the left bank but also diverted 40,000 Russian troops from the East. And by the way the Ukrainian lodgment on Krynky lasted for eight months from October 2023 to June 2024. Ukraine is still, to this day, sending raids across the river.
You meant 400 square km which equals 154 square miles or 98,560 acres.
A square with sides of 12.4 miles.
Manhattan is 22.8 square miles, Brooklyn 97 sq mi. All of NY City’s 5 boroughs is 469 sq miles, including 165 sq mi of water. Source: Google.
So they made progress since early this morning when they controlled 185 sq km.
The Gettysburg battlefield is 25 square miles in area for reference. So a little more than 6 Gettysburgs (the 154 sq mi controlled by Ukrainian army in Kursk).
Paris France is 41 square miles.
Washington DC is 68 sq mi.
Kiev is 300 sq mi.
Berlin 324 sq mi.
London 607 sq mi.
Moscow is 970 sq mi.
Looks like American cities are more vulnerable on average to H bombs than European cities. The numbers are the legal boundary limits so they may be somewhat misleading. But I do recall that one of the main reasons for 1950s suburban growth was as a precaution against nuclear war, as was Eisenhower’s interstate highway system.
Much more of this and I suspect that Putin is going to get really p*sssed off…..which is apparently the whole idea of this attack because I don’t believe Ukraine has the resources to exploit any breakthrough.
As an aside, I think the outcome of this war will be the same as the last few……
…..New restaurants offering Ukrainian home coooking all over the USA.That is of course if Putin decides not to turn Ukraine into radioactive glass as a warning to others.
how does Putin know Ukraine hasn’t thrown together a few bombs on their own (or squirreled away a few that were “overlooked”, or bought ’em on the open mkt). wouldn’t take many to make Moscow a no-go zone. MAD makes us much sense now as it ever did.
Interesting insight from Vladimir Pastukhov, an elderly Russian author and intellectual. Pasted from Telegram. Guy has a brain. His idea is that a lot can be learned about the RF capabilities by observing the response to this incursion.
———————
https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1196
There is such a method in science – a physical experiment. This is when a certain level of theoretical elaboration of the issue already exists, but there is no unambiguous conclusion. There are several hypotheses, but which of them is correct can only be established experimentally. In my opinion, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently conducting such a physical experiment in the Kursk region.
There are two hypotheses regarding the state of the Russian armed forces. One assumes that the Russian military resource is, in principle, unlimited, and Russia can mobilize as many people and resources (within the framework of this local conflict, of course) as it wants. The only question is political will and time. The other hypothesis is that Russia, like Ukraine, is acting at the limit of its capabilities, but plays poker (bluffs) better. In this case, unexpected and excessive pressure can have a butterfly effect.
In this sense, the unexpected offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kursk is not about square kilometers, but about the future of war. Based on its results, approaches to peace plans, military and financial aid to Ukraine (on the other hand, military-technical aid to Russia) will be measured. Perhaps this is one of the most important battles of the 2023-2024 campaign in terms of its political significance, surpassing in its consequences everything that is happening near Avdiivka and its environs. This is not a tactical ploy, but a strategic (in the political, not purely military sense) enterprise.
The stakes for both Ukraine and Russia are higher here than it might seem at first glance. The ease with which the knife of the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the butter of the Russian defense on a fresh section of the front, in my opinion, is deceptive. The Kremlin understands the importance of a “response”, and it will follow soon. And this is where the experiment begins: we will see in practice whether Russia has something to respond with (leaving aside the topic of tactical nuclear weapons), without removing units from other strategically important areas and without carrying out urgent mobilization measures, or that’s it.
Great Ukrainian restaurant in the east village of Manhattan is Veselka’s. Chicken cutlets with mushrooms gravy to die for. Huge portions (as of my last visit years ago but it’s still in business). It’s a landmark.
There is a refugee Ukrainian widow and her 10-year old here. She’s escaped the Donbas after the Putin’s neonazis killed her husband. She’s sponsored by a local church. She makes up ‘varenikis’ and a Donbas style pork knuckle dish that is delicious.
I believe it. Veselka’s was by far the best food in the village when I lived in lower Manhattan.
But I think the Ukrainian target is Russian logistics.
Interesting — at the same time as the Kursk incursion the UAF invaded the Kinburn Spit (a tiny sliver of land in NW Crimea). But they were defeated by RF troops. TTG would have a better idea of what that means than I but it’s hardly a random coincidence I’d think.
TTG & crew – This is free, I think, (I can’t remember if I have a paid subscription but he provides much free even if not) and chock full of information. Including that they are almost within artillery range of the Kurchatov NPP (25 km). Many details of operations.
——————–
Simplicius – Day 3 of Kursk Attack Sitrep
https://open.substack.com/pub/simplicius76/p/sitrep-8824-day-three-of-kursk-attack
According to this my earlier post is wrong. We’ll see.
———————————
https://t.me/dva_majors/49279
The video distributed by Ukrainian channels with evidence of Sudzha’s alleged total control was made at the local branch of Gazprom Gazoraspredelenie on the very northwestern outskirts of the settlement, which they reached several days ago.
Coordinates: 51.203505, 35.246919
In the city itself, the situation remains the same, and the conventional line of combat contact still runs along the river. There is still no enemy presence on the eastern outskirts of the city, so the statements of members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (who are trying with difficulty to remember the Ukrainian language) about their complete capture of Sudzha are far from reality.
In the near future, Ukrainian resources will actively post archive photos and videos taken on the first day of the fighting as part of a disinformation campaign. In the conditions of the “fog of war”, this will complicate the determination of the LBS configuration.
#Курск #Россия #Украина @rybar
I’ll be interested to see where this goes. Despite a longish list of units that are involved, most of these seem to be smaller detachments rather than full brigades. So overall the spearhead seems of only be 2-3000 strong, while the rest of these units are either not present or in reserve. Russians seem to be buttressing the shoulders on both sides, around Sudzha and Korenevo, maybe preparing to sever the LOC running back to Ukraine.
My read is that this is not going to end well for Ukraine, they moved out into the open and are not adequately covered by air defense assets. Russia-Ukraine border on both sides of the operation is lightly held and can presumably be easily penetrated. Russia has more manpower and a larger force than Ukraine, so it can easily man the thinly held portions of the line and outflank the Ukrainian force. So Ukrainians can be pinned down with artillery and air force, while Russians slip a force to cut their LOC and force a withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to advance towards Pokrovsk, further stretching the frontline. I think this the key development in the war, the Avdiivka group seems to be rolling in a steady fashion, steadily capturing one after another position. Should Pokrovsk fall in the next month or two, the Ukrainian line would be breached with no reserve positions behind it.
Only quibble I have with that is the reports of numerous mercenaries. Don’t know how many but 300 Canadian mercs have been reported just today on the border. With French, Polish and Georgians. I keep reading reports of the Ukrainian army replenishing their Kursk forces with reserves. Nothing is verified yet. Probably your prognosis is correct. It’s simply so outrageously embarrassing that Russia will get it together now. If so it will Remind me of WW2 when love for Mother Russia proved stronger than disgust with Stalin once they experienced the Nazi atrocities. There are reports of outright murder and torture of Kursk oblast civilians. Shooting up ambulances and cars of evacuating families.
By the way – – they are keeping mum about the total defeat of 70 mercs (mostly from Blackwater or whatever it’s called n9w) who went ashore in Yemen to do some dirty work. All killed. Mercs are deniable of course. I heard it on one of Napolitano’s YouTube broadcasts from Ray McGovern.
F&L,
My grandmother used to be able to read the future in the grounds from so called “Turkish” coffee (it’s really Syrian coffee – Turks invent nothing. They only steal). She’d drink the coffee and then flip the little cup upside down over a napkin and ritualistically tap it. Then she would stare into the grounds that had fallen on the napkin and “see” the answer to hidden secrets.
Well some “white” people have a kind of similar ritual. They stare into their fourth glass of Scotch and see things, like dead mercs, floating around at the bottom.
McGovern, Johnson, Ritter et al are no longer in the game. They know nothing more than anyone here could know. As Col Lang said, “When you’re out, you’re out” in response to someone who said something like “once CIA, always CIA”. Imagine if it were otherwise. How many unsupervised people who would have to be read into and out of programs, etc. When you work for the CIA, even as an analyst in a cubicle, you have to submit travel plans just for going on vacation with the wife and kids. You really think that they’re going to let all of these retirees who are rambling around doing whatever have inside info? You really think that active people are going to risk their careers (or worse) to let some old goat in on the latest top secret gossip?
Wow! Probably pentagon propaganda if it’s WAPO but it’s an interesting idea – if the Russian rate of advance … well read it yourself after the red ❗️ Never even occured to me. Another of several mystery shoes which might drop may involve the F-16s and their fearsome long range missiles. Notably the Netherlands today said that the F-16s they contributed can be used inside Russia proper. They have great love for the Russian Federation after their plane was shot down in 2014 with huge loss of life. 10 years to scheme .. revenge.
————————–
https://t.me/briefsmi/25294
❗️ The Washington Post: It could take a year to retake Kursk Oblast — if troops move at the same speed as Russia is advancing elsewhere.
▪️A successful operation on Russian territory — after more than two years of fighting almost exclusively in Ukraine — had psychological value for Kiev, boosting the morale of Ukrainian troops and civilians while portraying Putin and his military as weak and ineffective.
▪️Ukrainian officials have remained remarkably silent about the operation, with President Volodymyr Zelensky only alluding to it indirectly during his nightly speeches.
▪️Russian political scientist Markov believes that the Ukrainian government most likely plans to use the captured territory as a bargaining chip in future negotiations and that Russian troops must now counterattack before the Ukrainian brigades dig in – it’s a race against time.
▪️The tactics of the military conflict have so far confirmed that “the advantage goes to those who defend,” he said. “I think their plan is to seize as much territory as possible, and while Russia is gathering its reserves, they will build fortifications,” the political scientist added.
▪️Despite Russia’s significant air force, Moscow’s recent military operations in Kharkiv and the Donbas have shown that capturing territory is extremely difficult. “If they move at the same speed as Russia is advancing elsewhere, it could take a year to retake the Kursk region,” Markov says.
▪️Ukrainian troops have occupied more than 20 Russian border villages and parts of at least one small town, Sudzha. The head of the administration of the city of Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located, said that Ukrainian troops were approaching the nuclear power plant.
▪️ “Ukrainian forces have clearly advanced quite far in the Kursk region, but how much territory they control or actually intend to control remains unknown,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. #Россия #Украина
And now it’s published on Telegram that the RF State Duma is telling the nation not to expect Kursk Oblast to be quickly retaken. That’s really interesting if you like to compose thriller plots and consider what really might be going on behind the scenes. I would pick the author of the Odessa File – Frederick Forsyth. I nearly wept when I realized I’d read all his books. This is going to be one heck of an election with War Princess Kamala claiming the high ground versus Trump the appeaser felon rapist racist.
———————-
https://t.me/KvachkovV/1836
The State Duma has called not to expect a quick victory over the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
According to deputy and general Andrei Gurulev, Bandera formations have deployed serious forces and resources for the offensive, and this will have to be taken into account.
And will we have to reckon with the Bandera supporters if, God forbid, they capture Moscow and the Kremlin? Or maybe it is a matter of rot and professional incompetence, which Gurulev stubbornly ignores (that is why he is allowed on federal channels)?
Now this. This with the Duma announcement (it will take lots of time to retake Kursk) means either:
A) RF is backing off because these concerns are realistic and legitimate.
B) It’s deception. They want the enemy to think nothing is planned anytime soon.
—————-
https://t.me/dva_majors/49292
Kursk region:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces, as is expected of advancing Nazis, are settling in the homes of civilians on the occupied territory. Those who were not killed while trying to escape in cars or were not taken prisoner for some reason. It is clear that the Russian Armed Forces cannot strike at such targets.
Two majors
Well Hello! Assuming this is accurate (sounds like native English speakers to me) then who’s to say that NATO (really the USA) is not at war with Russia for real now? Not me that’s for sure. Land invasion.
See brief video at link to X.
Pop Quiz: Why, despite his mass murdering and torturing cruelty, will history remember Stalin as being more intelligent than Putin?
Answer (you can provide your own): Because despite everything, Stalin understood the vital importance of having the moral high ground. By which I mean that despite the horrendous losses his nation suffered, he waited for Hitler to attack him. I realize that history doesn’t tell the story that way at all, but I think the standard story overlooks this vital advantage he obtained by waiting. Would Roosevelt have come to the aid of the Soviets if they had attacked Germany? Maybe, I don’t know. But Putin invaded Ukraine. Lost the moral high ground. Not in everyone’s eyes, but in a sufficient number to matter.
———————————————————
🚨🚨🚨CLEAR EVIDENCE of NATO terrorists crossing the Russian state border to invade the Kursk region.
🤬The media will never show you this!
https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1822036191560266135
F&L,
That’s the Georgian Legion. I’ve seen several reports of them being there. They’re not just Georgians. There’s an entire battalion or so of foreigners from more than a dozen countries. It’s much like the International Legion. Both are integral units of the Ukrainian Army.
Thanks TTG. For your kindness and good deeds I give you:
STRUMPET –
a woman who has many casual sexual encounters or relationships.
ARCHAIC
a female prostitute.
Now for $64,000 of Harris – Walz or Trump – Vance baseball caps (your choice) ..
Why did I mention that?
It’s a tough one but you’ve been given all the clues necessary in an earlier comment of mine.
For the crew: What’s really interesting about Trump’s choice of Vance? Hint .. who was his first Veep?
Answers tomorrow.
“Not only were the Russians caught off guard, but it appears we weren’t told of Kyiv’s plans either. So much for the Ukrainians being just our proxies or puppets.”
We also were not clued in to the planning for this op on the Ukrainian side. But it lined up within the range of what we expected.
Drones, the new King of Battle?
Interesting article by David Axe on his Trench Art substack about the attack into Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Troops Marched Into Russia Behind a Creeping Barrage of Drones and Drone-Jammers
Adapting artillery to modern weapons and electronics. I hate his use of the example of the Somme though, that was attrition warfare at its worst.
https://daxe.substack.com/p/ukrainian-troops-marched-into-russia
leith,
I was just reading a similar article by David Hambling, author of “Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world”
I think the russians might have underestimated the resolve of the few.
that’s putin it mildly. believing your own PR is always an issue in stale
authoritarian states.
TTG – apologies for sounding off above. But my no stretch of ingenious argument can I be called the Russian shill. I’m the Donbass shill!
And proud to be so since 2014. To more serious matters.
The Ukrainians fought on in the belief the Americans would back them. That hope was immediately dashed when President Biden announced at the start there’d be no American boots on the ground. Since then Washington has behaved disgracefully. It has feted Zelensky, given him standing ovations, ceaseless adulation, promised him the earth. It was going to stand by Kiev “As long as it takes”.
To the increasing disillusionment of the Ukrainians that Grand Alliance of these two pillars of the Rules Based International Order, Kiev and Washington, has been nothing but hot air. Washington did little more than supply the Ukrainians with their unwanted and obsolete equipment.
They took the opportunity of clearing out the back shed. Got the junk off inventory and provided just enough of the good stuff to encourage the Ukrainians to keep fighting – while never giving them more of that than was enough to allow the Russians some free target practice. And I’m not buying the story everyone puts around, that that huge American economy was incapable of gearing up to supply the ammunition Kiev desperately needed. That one’s for the birds. They barely tried. All talk and not even an ounce of do.
As for the military assistance, Washington had ISR facilities any other country would give their eye teeth for. And what use did they make of it? With a bird’s eye view of the entire theatre and beyond never known before in history, they could only direct the Ukrainians into hopeless and suicidal operations on the ground. Never mind all the grand talk of strategy and doctrine and all the rest of the theory. We’re talking basics here. If the American generals had made rookie errors like that fighting the Russians face to face they’d have won! Simply because all the Russian troops would have died laughing.
So much for “as long as it takes”. The Ukrainians have been had and they know it. They were promised unlimited US backing, set the very survival of their country on that promise, and have been well and truly conned.
Now the Euros have got in on the act. They too are quite incapable of saving their bacon themselves. They can only get out of the hole they’ve got themselves into if Uncle Sam comes in and saves them. And we see in the European press the Euros whining like hell because Uncle Sam won’t do that for them, any more than it could for the Ukrainians.
What a damned freak show, TTG. One billion people and more under the leadership of Washington and we can’t muster enough clout to defeat one hundred and forty million. No wonder the Ukrainians are sore.
English Outsider –
I’m also a Donbas shill. Too many honest Ukrainians were murdered and tortured there. If they showed the slightest allegiance to Kyiv instead of the Kremlin they were assaulted by thugs plus arrested and thrown into filtration camps where they were subjected to beatings, electric shocks, asphyxiation or rape. It did not matter whether they spoke Russian or Ukrainian, they all got that treatment because they were Ukrainian patriots.
The Falklands was is the only war I’ve heard of where there were no atrocities, Leith. That can be called a Gentleman’s War, though rough enough. The Ukrainian Civil War preceding 2022 can’t be called that in any sense. You’ll recollect our host’s brief summary:-
“The Maidan Revolution occurred under conditions of anarchy and continued corruption. Under the cover of that anarchy, the right wing elements, the neo-nazis, white supremacists, anti-semitics and ultra nationalists gained ascendancy. They formed the right wing militias that threatened the lives of those in the east.
“The rebels had no choice but to fight for their lives. And they did. And it got ugly. “
Very ugly:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&t=10s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4QVsQ72kOg&t=1126s
The ultra-nationalists hate their former Russians compatriots in the Donbass like poison. Untermenschen who have to be cleared out of the Donbass or exterminated. They say as much on TV – TV that of course gets watched in the Donbass. The hatred is reciprocated by the LDNR forces. I remember seeing a video of Givi smacking a Right Sektor prisoner around and thinking, if he’ll do that on film what does he do off. Not that there’s a whole lot of taking prisoners when the ultras and the LDNR forces meet up.
The Georgians and the Chechens, the latter either side, can be savagely brutal too. This war has been a maelstrom of hatred since 2014. If you don’t like it – I don’t – then don’t give ultra-nationalists the run of the place as the Germans and the Americans did in 2014. Nor let your Intel or ours coach the Ukrainians in atrocity theatre as was done in Bucha. Nor give the Ukrainians weapons and targeting instructions to hit NPP’s.
Really, this maiden aunt screaming at spiders act we see both in Germany and the States is entirely bogus. Seems half the States and a fair chunk of England is quite happy to cheer on atrocities in Gaza, more than happy to draw a veil over Ukrainian atrocities – but grasps eagerly at any fiction about Russian atrocities the Western media cares to dream up for us.
But my comment above was not about that, or about whether this war was “provoked” by the West or “unprovoked”. All I’m saying is that as far as the actual conduct of the war goes, the Western politicians and military have not only been unbelievably incompetent. They have been dishonourable in their conduct towards the Ukrainians.
Led them on, refused to let them make peace when they could have saved their country and half a million lives, and then ditched them. Can that be called anything other than dishonourable?
EO,
The ultra-nationalists, as in Svoboda, Pravy Sektor and their associated militias, were losing their prominence by 2016 and were totally out of power in 2019. Putin’s use of denazification as an excuse to invade Ukraine in 2022 is absolute bullshit. If he was serious about denazification, he should have started with his own swastika waving and tatooed clowns.
TTG – the ultras are still around and still have a determinative influence in Ukrainian politics. The more extreme of them were never strong numerically but as Zolote showed, well after 2014, the ultras do have the say.
Putin’s goal, demilitarisation and denazification, will now I think be met. I’m pretty sure these monuments will come down fairly soon.
https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/
If those monuments don’t come down, I reckon the Putin administration isn’t long for this world. Putin’s already regarded in Russia as a big softy and failing to carry through his core aims would do for him.
The Russians will demilitarise Ukraine to stop it being used by us for various forms of “look no hands” attacks into Russia. They will “denazify” it because it’s the ultras we mostly use for that purpose.
I doubt they’ll be very successful in the latter. The ideology of the OUN-B will remain strong in parts of Ukraine whatever the Russians do. But most of the “neo-Nazis” will have fled to Germany and those remaining will keep their heads down, so for all practical purposes our hopes of using Ukraine as a means of overextending and unbalancing Russia will be frustrated.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
It won’t worry the Washington neocons too much. They have plenty of other irons in the fire when it comes to getting at Russia and many of them want to move on to China anyway. It’ll really upset the Europoodles. Project Ukraine was, in truth, more their baby than Washington’s and its failure is going to affect us in Europe quite a lot.
EO,
The ultras, as you call them, are present in most countries. Why so many of them cling to nazi imagery is beyond me. Not all of them do so. The ultras of Russia were instrumental in pushing for and supporting the invasion of Ukraine. They are the ones calling for the extermination of the Ukrainian culture, language and even the Ukrainian people. They consider the continued existence of an independent Ukraine to be a threat to Russian nationalism. Perhaps Putin should denazify and demilitarize his own ultras. Ukraine has done a lot of that since their ultras’ heydays of 2014 and 2015.
That Rand study you often bring up is a policy proposal of a think tank, albeit an influential think tank. It proposes an extension of the Reagan era policies which lead to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is not current US policy. Current policy targeting Russia is aimed at preserving and protecting an independent Ukraine while not causing regime threatening actions within Russia. Our policy of escalation management exemplifies that policy. Not that we’re all Peaceful Kingdom types. We still want to be the leader of the free world and the world in general, but we’re a long way past the days of US hegemony after WWII.
One billion people and more under the leadership of Washington and we can’t muster enough clout to defeat one hundred and forty million.
It might be interesting to look into E.O’s use of “we”, which seems to have an extremely choking effect on me occasionally, feels there may be sets/collections of diverse “we’s”. Like the whole “West” the all-embraching “we”, vs smaller cores or circles of more “enlightened MAGA, MGBGA … patriotic we’s”?
“We” is all of us, LeaNder. Your taxes and mine go to paying for what our politicians get up to irrespective of your or my views. We are thus complicit in what our various countries do and cannot escape that by retreating to within our various private “cores”, as you term them.
Emulating Pontius Pilate and thinking we can disassociate ourselves, wash our hands of it all, is something of a get-out. To pretend we are not part of the collective “We” is unrealistic. Narcissistic solipsism. You’re on the team whether you like it or not.
As you’d find out pretty quickly were you to decline to pay taxes to support the doings of a Scholz or a Baerbock.
I am afraid, E.O., you may wish to, but don’t have the power to make me feel guilty or ‘complicit’ in anything.
Ys you I was referring to your rhetoric. A recurring feature of your rhetorical strategy, that is curiously enough not very present here but surfaces quite often.
Why do you feel PL never used “we'” the way you do, but addressed people here as pilgrims? Pilgrim leaves me the freedom to decide, while your “we” seems to want to force me as a reader into your very, very peculiar world, which I don’t want to be part of.
Notice: I did not address you directly as one of your willing “we’s”.
Pronouns Convey Power
…. Diann Baecker analyzes the pronouns used in university syllabi, for example. She finds that “you” is the most prominent, but she also suggests instructors tend to mask power by using “we.” She cites research by Mühlhäusler and Harré that states, “We spreads the responsibility . . . We is a rhetorical device that allows the speaker(s) to distance themselves from whatever is being said, thus making it appear more palatable because it appears to come from the group as a whole rather than a particular individual” (Baecker 59).
She continues: “The pronoun we is an example of an ambiguous marker of power, which can be used both to indicate solidarity or community and as a means to coerce the audience into behavior that benefits the speaker. . . .there are specific rules for determining who can use the royal we and who must remain with the solitary I.” (Baecker 59).
But back to your sentence: when will you pick up arms and join the fight on Russia’s side? You feel we all should all fight Russia?
One billion people and more under the leadership of Washington and we can’t muster enough clout to defeat one hundred and forty million.
An echo of Eric’s “total war” above?
Haven’t the faintest idea what all that means. More round the corner talk, by the looks of it. Best to come straight out with it or not come out with it at all.
Focus on the simple stuff, LeaNder. Merkel announcing publicly she never intended that Minsk 2 should be held to. Backing avowed neo-Nazis in Ukraine. The Melnyk interview, when even the dumbest German must have realised what it was they’d been backing. Sweeping North Stream under the carpet. The prosecution and harassment of dissidents.
Simple stuff like that. But you don’t do simple stuff. If you’re the same LeaNder as in earlier days your career background is in straight information warfare. You’ve spent a fair part of your life doing just that. So you see it as natural to cosmeticise or evade the facts and to think in terms of “rhetorical strategy”.
I can read all that twisty stuff in Die Welt. Or get it from DW. I don’t need to come here to see it practised. The day you Germans start to ask straight questions and demand straight answers will be the day when you all start dragging your country, and Europe with it, out of the mess mini-Barbarossa Scholz and his crew have got you into.
I’m not holding my breath.
I cannot eat as much as your comments make me want to puke. Paraphrasing Max Liebermann.
Is that straightforward enough?
Remember “selection and maintenance of the aim”. The Russians need to remember that their aim is to de nazify Ukraine. They must NOT overreact to the Ukraine incursion merely because it is on Russian soil and then act hurriedly for political reasons because it will cost soldiers lives. They need to think this through.
I would have thought the Russian model should be the German destruction of the roman legions in the forest “Varus, give me back my legions!” Not a single Ukrainian who crosses the border should return. That is a different objective compared to frightened “defend every inch of territory” screams —with the exception of holding a NPP>
Easy to say but a large number of Russian prisoners were taken on day 1 alone. Look at the video of the column of Ru trucks carrying soldiers who were massacred, some reports say as many as 500+, if entertaining doubts about their fate especially after a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian supermarket full of shoppers two days ago. Russian demographics simply don’t allow them to defend such a colossal territory or long front line. And frankly the military don’t seem too smart especially the brass. They’re cursed, mostly through no fault of their own. It’s such a pity that we too are ruled by neanderthals. We could have taught Russian in our schools.years ago, our kids would love their music, dance etc. Many who were exposed to it through youtube did – Serebro and Little Big toured the united states and Canada. But it doesn’t make money for the swinish arms manufacturers. Look at the f***g garbage movies here – 24/7 glorification of violence, addiction to military video games. As we discussed before it’s hard-wired into the species. I just watched a 60 second TikTok video of some monkeys trying to steal bananas from some gorillas. It was LA after Rodney King.
F&L, since you mentioned dance, I can’t resist mentioning the playlist
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZlQy6FlDBO29Q6rvgumhDeWOeJUOEfdF
The kicks!
Yup. With the NPP secured this is now party time for the Russians.
Since Istanbul the Russians have had but one military aim. To destroy all the troops and equipment the West can throw at them. Ludicrously, both NATO and Kiev have fallen in with this aim, trundling great masses of troops and equipment over to the Donbass to be destroyed. The NPP safed, (one hopes) the Kursk incursion is just more of the same.
Meanwhile we in the West sit around telling each other stories. The stories we’re fed keep changing but we’re most of us too busy with other things to notice. This isn’t a proxy war, is the current story. Just helping out a pal. Some pal. Some help.
Given the Russian view of the “Motherland,” I think they have a real problem.
Did it ever occur to the crew of the good ship Turcopolier including her skipper TTG that people like Scott Ritter, Colonel Macgregor, Ray McGovern, Alistair Crooke, Larry Johnson and the rest of Judge Andrew Napolitano’s host of analysts and commenters .. are … in fact … agents of the US Government and its security forces?
Why do I say such a silly thing?
Because
A) They were all either CIA or Military Intelligence and or combat officers, a UK “diplomats” (quite possibly a spook) or in Andrew Napolitano’s case a highly paid contributor to the ultra right wing Fox news broadcasts of the notorious and reactionary Murdoch media empire.
B) For over two years now they have streamed and written and streamed nonstop that “Ukraine has lost” or “Russia has won” or “It violates the physical laws of the Universe including causality that Russia can conceivably be defeated” (and if you don’t believe me check out my credentials!) In Other Words .. a snow job of deception.
C) After doing everything in B) what happens? Kursk, that’s what. Oh and Prigozhin’s march on Moscow shooting down RF airplanes and helicopters. And the retreat from Kherson. And the expulsion from the environs of Kharkov. And lots more. No matter, ya see, ’cause we are credentialed experts ya see and we know better than you.
If you can’t make a case for them working to delude the Russians with misplaced overconfidence, and their domestic and foreign viewers (who want desperately to believe it because what if the Russians aren’t winning and nuclear war is in the cards oh no) then don’t expect to do too well as a debate team coach.
I’m not saying I believe that to be true but it has occurred to me.
Napolitano did for awhile include a dissenter, an old Russia hand from the CIA but he no longer does.
Oh the CIA, you don’t say? How does he know so many people in the CIA? No idea. Do people in the cia ever know other people in the cia? Seems unlikely they would. I mean do teachers know other teachers, cops other cops, doctors other doctors? No, hardly ever. Thanks that’s what I thought too. I noticed one thing though Remember Tony Soprano the evil New Jersey crime family boss played so wonderfully by try the late James Gandolphini? Well I watched those shows years ago and I thought I noticed something very suspicious. Many of Tony Soprano’s associates seemed to be members of the Mafia. I’m not saying they were it being so unlikely and everything but it seemed within the realm of possibility just slightly.
“But but Scott Ritter just had his house searched by the FBI. So pack it in F&L, there goes your dumb idea — out the window!”
Thanks. Didn’t think of that. Where did you hear that by the way?
“On several of Judge Andrew Napolitano’s YouTube shows, that’s where.”
Good enough for me. Thanks.
“are … in fact … agents of the US Government and its security …..”
Sure it occurred. Verify it for us. Or the opposite.
It’s very small potatoes compared to this topic, but I would be interested to read the views of people here on the Tim Walz stop-loss kerfluffle in a new thread if the front-pagers have the time or interest. The story already seems to be disappearing, but I’m reading contradictory things that I’m sure people here could sort out.
Stephanie,
The story is not disappearing, that’s what aWalz did when his unit deployed. Those who got stop-lossed while he was safe and sound back home aren’t happy with his leadership or Kamala’s judgement of it.
SFC Richard Hy “Angry Cops” breaks it down for you. MSG Walz is a turd.
https://youtu.be/sVMkvv8PQhk?si=7-enHiKNFZAGPo0-
VP candidate Jed Clampett (JD Vance author of Hillbilly Elegy) gets into Full Nelson applied by Governor Jesse “The Body” Ventura.
Or .. US Minnesota war Veteran sticks it to the hicks.
FMR Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura Calls JD Vance’s Criticism of Gov Tim Walz’s 24 year Military Record “Despicable.”
https://youtu.be/Qab007BtkDM
I hope Jesse uses my Jed Clampett reference next time (I borrowed it from an old dear friend) and reminds the audience that Hillbilly Jed Clampett, like Hillbilly JD Vance, struck it rich like Jed. But he wouldn’t because he knows Jed Clampett is a folk hero commemorated by Flatt & Scruggs in “The Ballad of Jed Clampett.”
The Ballad of Jed Clampett:
https://youtu.be/HExX4sU6pgE
You’re welcome to decide for yourself if V Pastukhov’s thesis concerning Biden’s true strategy is in the ballpark or somewhere else below in this paste of a robo-translated post of his this morning. Keep in mind that there was an invasion of Russia in 2023 — Evgeniy Prigozhin’s. And that there were ideas current then as to how he was in cahoots with the West, meaning the Biden administration however at arms length or not, just as now. Biden is educating Putin, not fighting him?
——————————–
https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1201
There are “harmful advices” and there are “harmful questions” – these are questions that creep into your head out of spite, even when you know for sure that you can’t ask them to yourself or others. Want an example? Please.
“Wow, it turns out that this is possible?!” – one hundred forty million people on one side of the border and forty million on the other were amazed on August 6, 2024, when regular units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the poorly guarded border of the Kursk region. And now, attention, a question:
“And what would have happened if the border breakthrough near Kursk had happened exactly a year ago, that is, in the summer of 2023, strictly instead of storming the “Surovikin line” head-on as part of the famous “counteroffensive”?”
Why was this done in a critical situation, in conditions when military resources were almost completely wasted, and to the greatest extent – in that very offensive on the Southern Front last year, and also near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Imagine what would have happened if the Ukrainian Armed Forces could have thrown 10-15 fresh brigades, equipped with Western heavy equipment that had not yet been destroyed, into the resulting breakthrough. Those that are no longer physically there today. Okay, I understand that this would never have been done. Red line, fear of a retaliatory nuclear strike and all that. But they did it anyway. So why only now?
The question is, of course, rhetorical. Everyone knows the answer, but not everyone says it out loud. They didn’t do it because they were bound by a ban from their allies, dependence on whom is absolute in the current conditions. And here I have a valuable observation. Biden’s red lines are not a constant. They are mobile and constantly shift from “don’t even think about it” to “we already did it yesterday”. Like, don’t even think about the planes – and the first batch of planes arrived in Ukraine. But there are nuances.
Biden crosses his immutable red lines with a delay lag of about six months, strictly after they cease to have strategic “game changing” significance for Ukraine. Closing the sky at the first stage of the war could have stopped it, the delivery of planes in the middle of the third year of the war changes little strategically. Transferring the war to Russian territory a year ago, when Ukraine retained reserves for a strategic offensive, could have had a stunning result. Now we can only talk about the redistribution of forces and the weakening of Russian pressure near Donetsk and Lugansk (I am not considering the psychological side of the issue in this case).
Of course, the easiest thing would be, imitating Trump, to attribute this to age – like, the old man is slowing down. But, unfortunately, this is not so. And even the fear of Russian nuclear weapons does not explain anything (they would not have allowed it to be done then and now – they would have found a way). The point is different: the priority of the Biden administration is the prospect of reaching an agreement with Putin in order to force him to be friends with them against China through humiliation and possible defeat. The Biden administration is building its policy towards Ukraine, guided by this simple utopia.
Biden’s goal is not Putin’s defeat, but Putin’s education. The tool (belt) with which he is educated is Ukraine. The fact that the tool is being spent in the process of education does not worry the educator in the first place – as they say, he did not force anyone, they got involved themselves. Therefore, assistance to Ukraine will continue to be provided at the pace and in the volumes that meet not the national interests of Ukraine, but the national interests of the United States. And the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Moscow in the footsteps of Denikin has not yet fit into these plans. “Not our method,” Fedya from “Shurik’s Adventures” would say about this. That’s why this breakthrough happened in 2024, and not in 2023.
F&L,
I don’t think Pastukhov is too far off. The Biden administration’s policy of “escalation management” is certainly not aimed at destroying Putin or Russia, but it is aimed at defeating the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The result of that policy is the metering out of aircraft, AFVs and long range weapons. I don’t agree with the notion that giving the Ukrainians just enough to fight back is the way to do this. It worked surprisingly well in the early days when we gave them plenty of MANPADs and portable ATGMs, but Russia adjusted and we didn’t adjust enough.
Thanks TTG. Hindsight is 20-20. JB looks like a genius now but RealClearPolitics said Trump led in the swing states as of Aug 5.
By Aug 11 Harris is nosing him out just barely. Kursk might have done the trick.
Meanwhile:
UK DOCTORS ORDERED TO ASK MEN IF THEY ARE PREGNANT.
https://www.rt.com/news/602449-uk-doctors-men-pregnant/
Just following orders Mr Starmer. Now once again – are you or are you not pregnant?
————————–
I hope EO determines his pregnancy status before his next checkup. I understand there are affordable home tests available at most druggists.
F&L,
Every military physical I’ve taken required me to answer that question in writing. The Army never saw the need to make male and female versions of the form.
TTG-
Now you’re the joker?
It’s no joke F&L. Just a way to save some taxpayer money by not having to print two different forms.
Most doctor’s offices and insurance companies do the same.
leith – a 71 year old man? It struck me as rather ridiculous but I get what you’re saying.
F&L.
I can easily picture the thinking being “The general trend for the last 20 years is the slow integration of Russia with the rest of the West, so this should be viewed as a mistake, an anomaly, resembling our own insane invasion of Iraq with the assumption it would be easy. We should not over-react and try to leave the door open to the resumption of that trend.”
Another thing that springs to mind is something Arty Green said in one of his first videos. Paraphrased from memory, it was that early on it was deemed unwise to assume Putin was still a rational actor, this was rash on his part, no question. If the US and the EU goes full bore at the beginning it might send him over the edge. But if the aid is slowly ratcheted up slowly…like the proverbial boiled frog…he will get used to it.
This was certainly not a matter of what Biden thought. Every EU nation that has been saying Russia must be totally defeated and humiliated or, by golly, he will try to take over the world!!, has been betrayed by their own reluctance to send the good stuff. Won’t even send pilots, let alone troops into this. Not a one of them. This is not purely a matter of US policy.
ML,
Very astute 1st paragraph. If it was up to the younger generation of Russians none of these hostilities would be perpetuated. Our youngsters are pretty good too but the brainwashing here is intense and there is an ignorant indoctrinated core. Everything in this life is based on mistrust and that is a tragic mistake and waste of human potential. We essentially have a world culture now, it’s a huge achievement, huge. The right wing ballyhooing “the globalists” and their threat is a classic example of a paranoid delusion — almost any paranoid delusion is based upon a kernel of truth that then undergoes successive increasing distortions till it comes to be indistinguishable from outright insanity. Another powerful natural force on a par almost with gravity or electricity is the intense love that children have for their parents and one of its results is the desire of young boys and men to be just like their dads. If dad was a soldier his son wants to be one too, and that force of nature is instrumentalized by older and cleverer people and institutions to do unnecessary, however seemingly profitable evil.
ML,
Very astute 1st paragraph.
Yes!!! Those fucking moderates not entertaining at all. 😉
On the Kursk incursion, now seems possible the target was indeed the NPP. This would account for the speed of the incursion and the disregard for casualties. Obviously if Kiev could get even a small unit as far as the NPP, fast before the Russians could react, the unit’d be difficult to dislodge without risking radiological contamination. As with the earlier commando attempts on the ZNPP, possession of this NPP by the Kiev forces would offer opportunities for putting pressure on the Russians in subsequent negotiations.
The IAEA latched on to the issue earlier and the Russian Security Council is also reported to have paid particular attention to the possibility of the Kursk NPP being the target.
IAEA Director General Statement on Developments in the Russian Federation:-
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general-statement-on-developments-in-the-russian-federation
Alternatively, sending small groups beyond the areas held to shoot up villagers and take selfies with flags in various corners might have been the aim of this incursion as it has been before. But it’s a lot of men, and equipment badly needed elsewhere, to lose this time round just for the PR value.
So probably the NPP as the intended target of the attack. Another NATO/Kiev Hail Mary. Always a long shot and will now end up as just another suicide mission.
Some time there’s going to have to be a discussion about the NATO/Kiev proclivity for fooling around with NPP’s. But at present we’ll all throw up our hands in horror at the very suggestion and say “Oh no. We’d never be involved in anything like that!”
English –
The Ukrainians are spreading their area of control wider. Not deeper. They don’t look to be going after the Kursk NPP despite the propaganda. It uses old, 1970’s graphite reactors identical to the ones used at Chernobyl. Two have already been shut down, the other two have exceeded their shelf life.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, the Russians have started a fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. What is their game? Probably to start a new line of agitprop to claim that the khokols did it.
Kiev’s last days in the bunker are going to get pretty frantic, Leith. There’ll be a lot of this nonsense coming out before Zelensky follows in Ghani’s footsteps. If he’s lucky enough to make it out past the Black Sun crowd.
Not long back we in England were invited to believe the Russians were shelling their own nuclear power plant. That in spite of both Kiev and the American press stating that the Ukrainians were shelling it and the shelling occurring until quite recently.
The recent Ukrainian commando raids on the ZNPP were not, however, alleged to be have been conducted by the Russians. There are limits even to the gullibility of the Western publics and the assertion that the Russians were mounting commando raids against their own forces would have been too much even for the most gullible to swallow.
Now we’re invited to believe that the Russians are sabotaging their own nuclear power plant. Doubt it. Poor maintenance or another Ukrainian attack. If it’s poor maintenance the Russians won’t tell us and if it’s another Ukrainian attack the Western press won’t. We’d best wait until more facts come out – if they ever do.
On the Kursk NPP, no proof either way. As said, if the aim was not to attack or seize that then we can write the Kursk incursion down to another of Zelensky’s PR stunts. Another Krynki but considerably more expensive in troops and equipment. I expect we’ll be seeing more stunts like that as the last days in the bunker draw to a close.
EO,
Someone is burning tires in one of the cooling towers of the ZNPP. Who do you think is doing that and for what reason?
“Black smoke has been seen to issue from the eastern cooling tower of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The head of Nikopol district administration, Yevhen Yevtushenko, reports that Russian forces set fire to “a large number of automobile tires in cooling towers’, citing sources in occupied Enerhodar. Smoke seen issuing from the tower is consistent with this assessment. It’s likely that the fires were set as a ‘publicity stunt’, and a warning about the Kursk Nuclear plant. Five reactor units of the Zaporizhzhia Plant have been in cold shutdown with one unit kept in hot shutdown, which the lAEA reports is necessary to produce steam for nuclear safety purposes, including the processing of liquid radioactive waste in storage tanks.”
If the Russians are burning tyres then that’s it. I detest that means of disposing of tyres. Russia delenda est and no two ways about it.
Though there’s an alternative story going around that a drone was helpfully dropped into one of the towers. The IAEA, which is supposed to be still on site, should for once stop hiding in the corner and come out with a straight account of what actually happened. Unlikely on past form.
I have a strong objection to burning tyres. They do it round my way, weekends when the Local Authority officers are off duty. A black sludgy smoke fills the valleys around my hilltop but I’m told by those who complain that the officers take the IAEA line. Pretend it never happened. Less fuss that way.
That’s if the story about the tyre burning is true. The underlying story isn’t. The underlying story that we in the West swallow wholesale is that the Donbass is crammed full of loyal Ukrainians that NATO/Kiev are trying to “liberate”. And that the Russians, for some sinister reason, are sabotaging their nuclear power station.
That Russian translator I linked to above finds a quite different picture in the Donbass, as do the independent western journalists who go over there, but we shall continue to swallow the NATO/Kiev story because it suits us. And, Scholz leading the way, we shall continue to supress the independent journalists who say different any way we can.
Succeeding, by the looks of it. Enough Germans, thankfully not all, are easy with Scholz returning them to the Third Reich when it comes to information control. In my gloomier moments I wonder if that’s the default setting for German politics anyway. The Germans lack the Second Amendment so dutifully lining up behind the Führer of the day comes natural to quite a few of ’em.
Those Germans it doesn’t come natural to have to live with the fear of prosecution, confiscation of property, and police officers turning up at ungodly hours The press notified beforehand just so all know what happens if a German steps out of line.
So much for the Land of Nie Wieder. On the ZNPP the facts are that NATO/Kiev, with American equipment and targeting assistance, has been shelling a nuclear power plant. Very risky.
The Kiev regime is in extremis so we can expect such actions from it. The Americans aren’t and ought to call a halt to this incessant fooling around with NPP’s. Might seem a clever dodge to some tunnel vision NATO strategist but it’s simply too dangerous.
English –
The Black Sun tatoo is most popular in Russia and in the Russian puppet state of Donbas.
Leith – as far as I know the RF isn’t at the beck and call of neo-Nazis. The Kiev puppet state is. That’s why Zelensky’s in such a difficult position and his unfortunate country with him. Why neither Minsk 2 nor Istanbul was ever, if we’re being realistic, on the cards.
He has two masters, NATO and the Black Sun crowd, and neither will let him off the hook. Check out Zolote. Good place to start when examining the Zelensky dilemma.
My own take for what it’s worth is that the Russians are hoping the Ukrainians will sort out the problem for themselves. Get rid of the puppet regime and put a different government in place. But though I dislike historical analogies – they’re never foursquare and this one certainly isn’t – the analogy with the last days of the Third Reich is not encouraging.
There, also, many knew that the war was lost long before the end. In fact most of my older German friends I used to listen to on that period said that at the time they thought the war was lost after Stalingrad.
But there, also, the regime was too firmly in the saddle for there to be much chance of stopping the fighting before total defeat.
So if the Russians are hoping the Ukrainians will sort the problem out for themselves they may be being optimistic. Have to wait and see.
English –
The Kremlin needs to sort out its own neonazis. They use to do that when it first arose back in Soviet days and even in the RF in the 1990’s and very early 2000’s. But then Putin stated using those Russonazi groups to help him control his opposition. And he sent them into Ukraine after the Orange Revolution to aid Yanukhovich and into the Donbas in 2014 to aid Zakharchenko and Bolotov and their followers.
There are many such groups in the RF all using various nazi flags, patches and tattoos including swastikas, your black sun symbol, SS lightning bolts, etc. Several of them received Putin’s blessing and support. Rusich is one such group. Dmitry Utkin, founder of Wagner, is a well known nazi as are a great number in Wagner. Wagner Corps are now working for the GRU. Russkii Obraz is a hardcore neo-nazi group that had supervisors in the Kremlin. There are neo-nazis in the ranks of FSB, not a surprise considering that Bortnikov uses neo-nazi groups against Putin’s opposition. There are neo-nazi and xenophobic political parties that have seats in the Russian parliament. There is even a Russkii band called Kolovrat (aka the Black Sun) that has played in Red Square within hearing distance of the Kremlin.
“There are many such groups in the RF all using various nazi flags, patches and tattoos including swastikas, your black sun symbol, SS lightning bolts, etc.”
How do you know this, Leith?
Can you state your source?
Thank you.
As to who or what is influential in Ukraine, there are two straws in the wind:
1. Of the two U.S. political parties, the Democrats are nearly 100% in support of the current Ukraine government.
The Republicans are closer to evenly divided.
If Ukraine has a strong neo-Nazi component, why would that be so?
It doesn’t seem to make sense.
2. There are reports that the “Open Society Foundation” of George Soros has been heavily involved in influencing Ukrainian society.
See this review:
https://www.unz.com/article/review-of-scott-howards-the-open-society-playbook/
I would be most interested to hear what TTG thinks of all that.
He evidently knows a lot about Eastern Europe.
Keith Harbaugh,
Soros has long been a champion for the democratization of countries behind the Iron Curtain. Beginning in the 80s when he supported Charta 77 in Czechoslovakia, Solidarity in Poland, and the Sakharovs and their allies in the Soviet Union. His foundation was established first to fund scholarships, cultural events and academic exchanges with the goal of opening up Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. When the USSR collapsed, his efforts to fund developing democracies and open societies in Eastern Europe went into overdrive. His opponents were the communist authoritarians in the Kremlin and their henchmen in the capitals of Eastern Europe. His opponents today are no longer communists, but they remain authoritarians.
I don’t buy the views of Scott Howard or of the reviewer, Bernard Smith. Soros is not destroying traditional societies in Eastern Europe. Those countries are now quite varied and unique. Hungary and Slovakia are very different from Poland, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The Baltics are different from all of them. Howard seems to long for the days of strict authoritarianism and societies directed from the top down. Smith gives me the impression that he would slaughter Jews for killing Jesus if given the chance. That is probably unfair, but the impression remains.
TTG,
We all know you lean toward the progressive side of politics and social philosophy, but now you’ve gone too far. Soros as a pro-democracy philanthropist and generally a good guy? Sheesh. The elected officials and organizations he has funded in this country are radicals and proud of it. Some of the individuals and groups are admitted socialists. BLM is one such. They also misused a lot of funding. This is the typical starry-eyed democrat irresponsible- throw money at problems you don’t understand-virtual signalling/moral posturing- accomplish the opposite of whatever you stated as your goal-society rotting-mind virus warped thinking-corrupt, societal programming but with Soros in the role usually occupied by the federal government.
The inner cities where these anti-Americans become ensconced are increasingly crime ridden and desperate. No bail and no arrest for theft of under $1000 type policies cause businesses to leave the most needy areas. Soros’ “philanthropy” is also involved with the waves of illegal immigration coming into this country. He is deliberately funding people who break our laws, in the process also helping the Mexican cartels make money, helping poor illegals be child trafficked, raped and occasionally killed.
All of that is just the most high level, quick and very tangible impact of Soros on the US. There’s much more damage that can be attributed to that evil jackass. If he wants to do penance for helping the Nazis, he should simply slowly lower himself into a vat of boiling oil.
Eric Newhill,
I know him for his work in Eastern Europe in the 80s and 90s. He had plenty of work to do there and he did a lot. I never really followed what he was sticking his nose in here beyond knowing that he donates massively to Democratic campaigns and PACs. I think he’s become a favorite boogie man for Republicans and the right for that reason. That’s fair, but his work in Eastern Europe was beneficial.
TTG,
OK Fair enough. I only know about his deviltry here in the states and nothing about Eastern Europe in the ’80s.
I suppose he could have done some good there even if, perhaps especially if, he was as radical then as now. Eastern Europe had a long way to go and pushing hard on a radical Soros agenda would realistically result in positive incremental change.
However, the US isn’t Eastern Europe circa 1980s – 1990s. We don’t need his radical push. Also, I suspect that his organization is in that stage that all of these orgs go through. They have accomplished their original mission and, rather than disband, they are now force fitting new missions to justify their existence. Unfortunately, when old George passes away, his son and grandchildren will continue to run a forever endowment that has evolved into a globalist socialist threat to the US.
The Republicans are closer to evenly divided.
If Ukraine has a strong neo-Nazi component, why would that be so? It doesn’t seem to make sense.
Could you elaborate about this division, Keith? MAGA men and women are more pro Russia? Or only against financial & military support of the Ukraine? While the Rhinos support Ukraine?
What are/were the positions of these two camps towards the Iraq war?
How about the US own homegrown neo-Nazi base? There is no such thing? It’s made up from whole cloth by the Southern Poverty Law Center, which is also supported by Soros? As e.g. their look into Scott Howard’s publisher Antelope Hill?
I may actually take a look at his self-publishe fiction.
LeaNder, you can Google this yourself, but here is one article I found:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/05/08/growing-partisan-divisions-over-nato-and-ukraine/
“Democrats and Republicans differ sharply on
views about aid to Ukraine,
ratings of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
and whether supporting Ukraine helps or hurts U.S. interests.
…
just 13% of Republicans say the
U.S. is not giving enough support to Ukraine, while 49% believe it is giving too much”
That gives some numbers, but doesn’t explain the reasons.
I can’t speak for others, but I can give my own views.
The last two decades have seen the U.S. sink into Transgender Nation, where the “educated” classes can’t even tell the difference between male and female.
This is going to have two inevitable effects:
1. Fewer biological families
2. A future without the biological descendants of these “transgenders”.
Not good.
Thanks, Keith,
you didn’t answer my questions concerning the divide inside the GOP. But I’ll take a look at the Pew Report.
The last two decades have seen the U.S. sink into Transgender Nation, where the “educated” classes can’t even tell the difference between male and female.
I am not a fan of identity politics more generally & strictly the topic reminds me of exchanges with Fred, years, and years ago. But in a nutshell: a far as I am concerned, no society can call itself a democracy which ignores biology or nature and wants to force whatever they decide to label “not normal” into whatever straightjacket that fits their labels. …
What is your take on Imane Khelif? She may have grown up as female till the age of 24, when Russians discovered her ‘abnormal’ cromosome and testeron test results? How should society deal with her case and similar cases?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imane_Khelif#Early_life
Leander,
A pet theory of mine is that the LGBTQ and transgender movement is agitprop purposed to destabilize traditional conservative countries which are America’s enemies such as Russia, China and most of the middle east whether Shia or Sunni.
In a few words – you can’t call the Russians dirty atheistic communists anymore, because they’re not. But you can easily accuse them of being insufficiently tolerant of gay and transgender rights — were they to try to impose those agendas they’d be committing suicide because of how destabilizing it would be — think the huge muslim population of Russia. And they have a serious demographic problem and can’t risk promoting gay pride for that reason too. Same applies to China and Arab dictatorships with variations. Other inputs are the US military’s needs for soldiers — they take women and gays because the obesity and drug epidemics force them to, not because they stay up at night weeping over gay and women’s rights.
LeaNder –
Khelif is a woman. She was born a female and still is a female. She does not have the XY chromosome as claimed by the Russkii boxing association. She was smeared by the Kremlin because she bested a Russian boxer.
As regarding geneder politics, I have no problem with Trump’s VP choice, JD Vance, wearing a dress and eye make up. If he wants to be a Maybelline mascara queen, that it his business, not ours. And as I recollect one of Trump’s former allies, Rudy Giuliani, used to do the same many times and Donny seemed to enjoy it.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/second-photo-alleging-to-be-jd-vance-in-drag-posted-online
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1dtg4d7/donald_trump_motorboats_a_dragdressed_rudy/
“Could you elaborate about this division, Keith?”
The division to which I was referring was that between Democrats and Republicans,
not the internal division among Republicans.
You obscured this by omitting the sentence which preceded what you quoted.
How has Soros deliberately affected America?
A quick look at what some conservatives think:
https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/george-soross-prosecutors-wage-war-law-and-order
https://www.city-journal.org/article/george-soross-bad-bet
https://thefga.org/research/soros-district-attorneys-make-cities-unsafe-elections-less-secure/
In the past, elections for district attorneys and, in Virginia, Commonwealth’s attorney, were strictly local affairs, attracting little money.
For some reason those elections were fantastically important to Soros, and he sunk large amounts into influencing them.
In Arlington County, Virginia, he spent ~$500K to ensure the Iranian-American Parisa Deghani-Tafti defeated Theo Stamos.
https://www.arlingtonva.us/Government/Departments/Courts/Commonwealth-Attorney/Meet-Parisa
Just why was this local election so important to Soros?
That wasn’t about democracy, but about his agenda.
For details on the financial impact of Soros, see this informative article:
https://www.arlnow.com/2019/06/04/commonwealths-attorney-candidates-campaign-funds-skyrocket-as-primary-nears/
“All told, the incumbent raised $161,760 for her 2019 re-election bid
compared to the $743,604 Tafti raised to unseat her.”
That is the effect Soros has had on America.
F& L : “Where do you find young people crazy or stupid enough to throw their lives away or live with permanent disabilities? If you find the time let us know. “.
Fancy uniforms, loud music and admiring glances from young women seem to work pretty well for the last 5000 years……and the promise of some money.
Walrus –
Shouldn’t Putin immediately surrender the lost territory in Kursk Oblast to avoid more senseless bloodshed?
Touche!
Right because the best answer to being invaded is to surrender, lol.
Eric – the first comment I submitted to Colonel Lang’s site after being banned was on a similar topic. Of course the best answer to being invaded is to resist. Goes without saying.
But this case is not that. I instanced Lee ‘s decision after Appomattox and argued that the correct answer to being defeated was to surrender.
(Wiki) ” Lee launched a last-ditch attack to break through the Union forces to his front, assuming the Union force consisted entirely of lightly armed cavalry. When he realized that the cavalry was now backed up by two corps of federal infantry, he had no choice but to surrender with his further avenue of retreat and escape now cut off.”
Lee did have another choice, just maybe. He could have scrambled himself out and as many men as could escape with him and launched into guerilla war. But there was no other choice. Had he stayed and fought he would merely have condemned his men to pointless slaughter.
Worse than pointless in this case. The Ukrainians have long since been defeated and are now being condemned to pointless slaughter. Is hanging the slaughter out until after the next American presidential election a good enough reason for that?
EO,
I believe your problem is your religiously held belief that Ukraine has been defeated. You sound like Macgregor who has been claiming that Ukraine will be defeated in a few days since late February 2022. He still does.
EO,
I second what TTG said in response to this comment of yours. You have it locked into your head that Ukraine is defeated, but will senselessly continue until the last man is dead. I don’t know why that idea is so resistant to counter evidence. Perhaps, stop ingesting LJ, Ritter, Martyanov, MacGregor, et al. They are buffoons at best. IMO, some are paid shills for Russia. And they are filling your head with ideas 180 degrees from the truth. Look at the emotional, hateful, mouth breathing droolers that comment there. That is who they appeal to. You’re better than that.
You know that I used to be in your camp. I had no idea that the Russian military had declined so precipitously since the Soviet days. Also, I overestimated Putin. However, at some point, I had to begin questioning my foundational beliefs. I also had to question the ideas that people like LJ were propagating, which, to some extent overlapped with my own.
For example, one such idea was that the Russians don’t care about territory; only killing Nazis and demilitarizing Ukraine. That idea had appeal for about a minute. It completely evaporated when Russia incorporated the new Donbas republics. Either Putin was an a-hole that fooled his new citizens in allowing those people to vote to join Russia, but planned to abandon them, or Russia cares very much about territory. That’s one example. It combined with another, which was that the Azov types were all dead by then. So why keep de-Nazifying when there are no more Nazis?
We have debated what Putin could gain from the invasion. You say removing NATO aggression from his border. I originally entertained that notion as well. Then it occurred to me that Russia will have NATO on its western border whether or not Ukraine exists. It’s all NATO straight to the Atlantic – and on the other side of the Atlantic.
Similarly, if Russia “demilitarizes” Ukraine, what would fill the vacuum? One obvious answer is “Russia”, but then you think that Putin doesn’t care about territory or conquering all of Ukraine. What would prevent the remaining Ukraine from joining NATO? Or being taken by Poland? The answers to these questions are important and it sure looks to me like Putin didn’t think them through because all of the answers make him look pretty stupid. No 4D master chess player. Just a petulant little beast trying to leave his mark in the history of Mother Russia by regaining Ukraine, but trying to do it on the cheap so as not to upset his populace, which is enjoying prosperity and would rather make money and party than fight. I digress.
One by one, then very quickly, the anti-America/Russia shill’s propositions completely failed the reality test by the end of the first year.
When I wrote a few times on LJ’s blog that if Russia took any longer to defeat Ukraine that Ukraine just might build to where it could flip the situation on Russia, and then had the “audacity” to suggest that maybe Russia hadn’t crushed Ukraine yet because it can’t crush Ukraine, LJ had a fit and banned me (fine b/c I was done with him anyhow). He literally had no answer/no ability to address the points other to repeat his mantras, lob insults and then ban. That is an irrational faith – or doing the job you’re paid to do. EO, I’m sure you’re not being paid by Russian outlets. Please just try to reconsider your position. Maybe just as a thought experiment?
TTG – Macgregor’s a great man but I don’t go by his view or anyone else’s. I go by my own.
That is that the West was defeated in Ukraine on 24th February 2022. Maybe a little earlier – we’re still not entirely sure when President Putin finally decided let his generals off the leash but anyway, 24th at the latest. The catastrophic loss of the sanctions war a little later underlined that defeat in red.
That was the view I came to as soon as I’d got my wits about me in early 2022 and I have seen no reason to change that view since. Unless President Biden decides to go nuclear and I have argued he’s most unlikely to do that. Hope I’m right on that one as well!
Sounds a little pompous, talking so portentously about “my view” but really, when you see a truck colliding with a bicycle there’s only ever going to be one way the encounter can go.
EO,
What on earth are you talking about? The west was defeated in Ukraine? Do you mean that western elements sent to Ukraine were defeated? Or that the entire west was defeated with somehow Ukraine being ground zero and this “defeat” spreading, like nuclear fallout or a virus, throughout Europe, the UK, Australia, Canada and the USA until the entire west has become obscured by the terrible cloud?
There’s no evidence for either scenario, but the latter, which I have a sneaking suspicion is what you meant, is, well, to be honest, batshit insane. It’s like whatever wrathful demon animates Martyanov has now taken possession of you as well. Maybe consider moving to Russia then.
So the sanctions didn’t work very well. That’s hardly a civilization ending catastrophe. In war you try some things. Some work out well, some don’t, some result in setbacks. I sure don’t see Russia making any big gains – and this thing isn’t even close to being over.
Eric,
Ease up, EO has become a hoot! I know you eschew psychiatry and so do I mostly but there are such things reported in the literature as non-psychotic delusions. There are people who function normally except that they firmly believe, say, that their parents are alive while in fact they obviously aren’t. But they can function, work, raise kids etc without any other detectable symptoms, and these delusional people don’t show symptoms of having been brainwashed as with cults.
I posted this on the thread above this but it won’t show up until TTG gets time to post it. It’s a brilliant rant by an Oleksandr, a Russian, who is similarly frustrated and angry with the denial of reality he sees in the “we’re not only winning we’ve won” crowd. EO has joined the “we’re not only winning and have won but we won long ago on day one” crowd, perhaps because he’s writing the lyrics to a song, I don’t know. Catchy isn’t it? We could slip a low dose of thorazine into his tea to see if the delusion goes away but that would be highly unethical. If he starts using literary constructions such as “Mr Kinzhal,” compliments of Pepe Escobar, we can reach for Mr Straightjacket and Mr Butterflynet.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/13444?comment=4198678
Did they demilitarize Ukraine properly? Before the demilitarization, the hohols couldn’t even dream of such weapons as they have now! They asked the Redhead for the unfortunate Javelins and Stingers – 4 years. And now, in exchange for the Soviet junk, they got: Highmars, tanks, Bradleys, Strikers, Caesars, ATACAMS, Stormshadows, Scalps and even aircraft… Oh, how “successfully” the demilitarization is going. And now they are also building factories for the production of NATO weapons on their own territory. 😁👍
They disarmed great, right? What do you think, Seryozhka??? Do you like this “disarmament”?
The Black Sea Fleet was reduced by 30-40%. The rest fled to Novorossiysk, away from the drones and missiles. Previously, the flight time of NATO missiles was 20-30 minutes, and now Finland/Sweden are in NATO. The flight time is now – St. Petersburg – 1.5 minutes, Moscowbad – 12 minutes. 12 NATO bases are being built on the border (in Finland). Before the War, they did not plan a single one. Finland/Sweden were neutral and non-aligned. Disputed territory with the Finns – Karelia (which before the Finnish-Russian war, was part of Finland…. The CSTO has shown itself to be a meaningless sham Union. A Union on paper and nothing more. On the border – more and more NATO troops are being pulled together. The EU countries have begun to restore their military-industrial complex by leaps and bounds. Military equipment factories, the production of ammunition, many countries have returned mandatory military service instead of contract service and also KOOOOCH “demilitarization”!
They demilitarized well, right? A bunch of refugees, a bunch of destroyed infrastructure and civilian facilities. Sanctions and dependence on China in EVERYTHING. A terrible failure in demography. And this is “we haven’t even started yet”! It’s scary to imagine what will happen when we “start”. 👍
With which I congratulate all of you, lovers of a little war and seizing someone else’s, and I congratulate you. The only pleasant and “positive” moment is the children of those who called and calls, they did not go to this Slaughter and will not go. At most, they will sit it out in the deep rear and walk around in camouflage somewhere near operational headquarters, for reporting and to show photos to the stupid Plebs (Deep People) (and even then I doubt it). All of them are sick / weak / untrained / unfit / needed in the rear. Oh, well, another “positive” – the murderers were amnestied en masse and sent home. To finish killing / raping those – who have not yet had time. 👍😁
And they are driving and will drive to the front – a simple Ivan from the village / poor regions and now conscripts (according to Gurulev, conscripts are excellent warriors). While the children of those who started this massacre are sitting in NATO countries and cheating on whores there at the resorts of the Emirates. And I haven’t even written the 10th part of “demilitarization” yet…
Eric – Yup. This is a crushing defeat for the West. This man I don’t like but he’s not a fool and he sees that too. Wish he’d pronounce hegemony right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRBfrEtLWBw
Was the defeat in Ukraine obvious at the start? Yes. That’s what I reckoned in 2022. Still do. But look. One’s opinion on who will win can’t be dependent on one’s opinion on who one wants to win.
Silly example: if your country happened to be at war with Canada then as a fellow member of the Commonwealth I’d of course want Canada to win. But I’d have to be realistic. I don’t think Canada would have much of a chance and it’d be dishonest to pretend otherwise.
Russia, with superb generals, a solid industrial base, and a large population is at war with a country that has none of these things. QED. Russia will win whether we want it to or not.
If you think Europoodles jumping up and down will make much odds, think again. All we in Europe can get up to is dirty tricks – I’m still worried about those NPP’s – and damn all else. The Euros talk big but they’d run sobbing to Uncle Sam if the Russians ever sent one of those fancy rockets their way.
And your own country’s not in a position to afford much help either. I don'[t go along with the notion that you’ve only got a boutique army. You’ve got lots of powerful weapons, fabulous logistics, and that recent set-to in the Syrian desert showed your troops are still first class soldiers.
No damn use. Obama was right. In this theatre the Russians have “escalatory dominance”. If you did try to put anything useful in in Ukraine then:-
1, You appear to be technologically inferior to the Russians. You don’t have much that can cope with those fancy rockets.
2. You haven’t got the manpower over there and won’t have.
3. If you tried anything serious you’d have to base your stuff in Europe. That means Europe itself would be a war zone and we’d again be confronted with the phenomenon of Europoodle chickenhawks running around sobbing.
4. The American electorate wouldn’t accept the sacrifices they’d have to make if you went toe to toe with Russia in Europe.
5. If you got round 1 – 4 it’d still be no use because it’d go nuclear. Rule one in modern military conflict is that the Russians and the Americans will not fight each other. Just because it’d risk nuclear. Biden will not risk Chicago frying for Kiev. Nor Harris nor Trump.
All that was obvious in 2022 and it’s obvious now. The only hope you had of defeating Russia lay in wrecking the Russian economy. But the sanctions war failed and your hopes of victory with it.
……………..
Did I make a mistake in writing”Second” instead of “First” amendment above?
Don’t think so. Obviously Berlin/Brussels laugh at the first amendment. That doesn’t need saying. But the second?
That’s not so much a question of being allowed to possess guns. Me, I think it’s ridiculous having lethal weapons on general sale in the States and I’d not like to see them on general sale here. But the Second Amendment says more than that.
It says, and has said since the eighteenth century, that government is obviously necessary but the danger of it becoming big brother has to be guarded against. In Germany, the key European country, most don’t so much regard government with healthy suspicion. They trust big brother implicitly.
That, by the way, is why the country’s in such a mess. It’s nowhere near a totalitarian state but the conditions there are right for it to become so. North Stream was the test for that. If that had happened in the States all hell would have been let loose. It happened in Germany and all dutifully looked the other way.
The Melnyk interview the same. The Germans saw fair and square what they were backing – and dutifully looked the other way again. Goebbels would have been so proud of them.
…………………
I screwed up above saying the Ukrainians took no AD along with them on the Kursk offensive. Should have said they had none worth reckoning with. That’s if the Russian figures for equipment destroyed so far are correct and I think they are.
And I was plain wrong saying villages had been evacuated beforehand. That was somewhere else.
Hope all that clears the decks, Eric.
EO is correct, the game is over. Ukraine is now going to be an object lesson to anyone else stupid enough to believe American promises
The collective West now has 20+ years of work to be done to reestablish its credibility.
walrus,
The game is over? When did Russia win? When did they install a government in Kyiv to their liking? You and EO are living in an alternate timeline concerning the status of the war in Ukraine.
Sorry TTG, even the WaPo, NYT are preparing the ground for Zelenskyy removal and Ukrainian capitulation.
And with Ukraine will go the military fantasy of small highly professional armies, special forces and highly complex weapon systems in favor of large quantities of conscripts and simple systems, etc. It’s back to quantity not quality so to speak.
It will take 20 years to remake the western education system to produce potential military material again (aka “men”) instead of self absorbed effeminate overweight babies.