Question 5: What can you say about the general state of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under Valery Zaluzhny?
At this point in time, the answer is unclear. The state of research about this war is that only statements by different persons are available, and next to no official documentation. Thus, we have the ‘he said, she said’ situation: lots of different people are making lots of different statements, but there is no absolute certainty about who is right and who is wrong (or, even worse: who might be lying).
What is sure is that the ZSU under Zaluzhny has survived the initial Russian onslaught. Alone that was a major achievement – because almost everybody (and thus Putin, too), expected the ZSU to fold and run away. Even to surrender en masse. As next, the ZSU’s resistance and the quality of that resistance (and the resulting, massive Russian losses) have forced Putin to drastically reduce his original aims for this invasion: to withdraw his troops from Kyiv, Czerhnihiv, and Sumy, and to abandon plans for seizure of Odesa. Finally, the fighting will of the ZSU has enabled the recovery of eastern Kharkiv Oblast, and northern Kherson Oblast.
However, I’m of the kind not assigning such achievements to ‘generals’, but to lower-ranking officers, non-commissioned officers (NCOs), and to ‘troops’. It doesn’t matter if generals are popular or not; military geniuses, or not; lucky, or not; skilled or not. Indeed, Generals can command as much as they like: if the officers, NCOs, and troops these generals are commanding are running away, surrendering or similar – then nobody is left to fight. And it took lots of officers, NCOs, and especially ‘troops’, lots of courage to stand and fight the massive Russian airborne- and mechanised onslaughts on Kyiv, Czernihiv, Mykolaiv, Voznessensk, Zaporizhzhya, on Izyum, on Lyman, on Popasna, on Severodonetsk, on Lysychansk, on Bakhmut, on Vuhledar, on Avidiivka etc. Indeed, the ZSU wouldn’t even reach Robotyne without its troops being ready to pay the ultimate price and cross those extensive and dense Russian minefields in order to get there.
Where ‘generals’ are really important is ‘organisation’. See: enabling lower-ranking officers, NCOs, and troops willing to fight – to fight. This enabling goes through the provision of organisation, command style, training, logistics, and then equipment and weaponry etc. By all respect, and with or without General Zaluzhny: these are all also the major problem zones of the ZSU.
Certain is only that it must have been Zaluzhny who has instilled, or at least authorised the instillation of the ‘fighting spirit’ and ‘can do’ mentality within lower ranks of the ZSU: without him at least granting permission to do so to somebody else, this would be impossible. Thus, a ‘plus point’ for him.
However, it is still so that after two years since the all-out invasion, none of other affairs important for the ZSU’s effectiveness is anything like ‘working well’. Indeed, improvements observed so far remain relatively minimal. The ZSU grew immensely in numbers, but lacks well-trained officers, skilled in commanding bigger formations (from battalion to brigade and bigger). The lack of skilled commanders is such that brigades are still grouped into ‘territories of operations’, instead into divisions – because Generals do not feel ‘safe’ to let their lower-ranking officers command more than a battalion. Foremost: much too often it happens that when there is a crisis, battalions from 5, 10, 15 and more different brigades are rushed to the zone in question, piecemeal, instead of entire brigades…
These are other big issues, too. There are major issues in the way the ZSU is deploying its newly-established units (see: rushing them into offensives, instead of assigning them quieter sectors of the frontline, to enable them to work-up). There are major issues with the logistics (which often appears to be run by ‘Soviet-style’ officers, who are rather ‘hoarding’ than ‘pushing forward’ what they get, etc., etc., etc.). And, there are major issues with the rotation of existing units: multiple examples are known for units that were kept in the line for up to 18 months, instead of being rotated to the rear, to enable them at last some time for rest, reorganisation and retraining. Problem: the longer a unit is in the field, the more exhausted its troops get, and thus the higher the losses and lower its efficiency…
Unsurprising result is: some units (those given the time to train, work-up and then get their stuff together before launching an offensive) are highly efficient, and thus attracting lots of volunteers. Others are ‘merely vegetating’: they’re existent (on paper and in the field), but of very low combat effectiveness…and thus attracting next to no volunteers, and in need of reinforcements whenever there’s a serious Russian attack. However, and as the ZSU knows very well (which is why it’s not insistent on general mobilisation of all the able-bodies men in Ukraine): combat effectiveness of volunteers is several magnitudes higher than that of draftees…
Finally, there’s the issue of accountability: while lots of medals are distributed to officers and troops successful in combat, investigations of major failures of the ZSU are progressing at snail’s pace – if at all. For example, two years since the Russians made their ‘Sunday afternoon drive’ to Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk, it is still unclear who was responsible for letting them do that? Similarly, it’s still unclear who has left the Russians drive all the way from the border to downtown Kyiv, on the first 2-3 days of the war? At least since November 2021, it was clear the Russians would invade, but nobody in the SBU and the ZSU came to the idea that they would go ‘all-out’ and not only try seizing Kyiv, but also Odesa, and all of north-eastern and southern Ukraine? Who is responsible for making such, massive failures in assessing Russian intentions?
Really: nobody?
There’s still no answer to this question. Sorry, but: this is where nobody else than the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces is responsible.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/no-bucks-no-buck-rogers
Comment: This is part of a recent Q and A posting in Tom Cooper’s Sarcastosaurus Substack blog. It’s about as good an overview of the status of the Ukrainian Armed Forces I’ve found. It’s not a rosy assessment. It’s not an optimistic outlook. But it’s realistic.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces is a force in the midst of a massive transformation which is also in the midst of a war for the survival of the country. The current Ukrainian military rose from a truncated piece of the Soviet Red Army. After independence, it further deteriorated due to neglect and corruption to a point where they could barely muster a force of 6,000 in 2015. After the first Russian invasion the US and the rest of NATO made a serious effort to remedy the situation. A major focus of this effort was to transition to a total national defense strategy with a heavy reliance on lightly armed Territorial Defense Forces. The laws and doctrine to support this weren’t signed off on until late in 2021. As part of this transition, Ukraine was supplied with an array of man portable anti-armor and air defense weapons. These weapons served well in the early stages of the current Russian invasion.
I know of another military that underwent a major transformation during a war. The Lebanese Army was in the midst of a total reorganization in 1983 when their civil war really flared up. I am most familiar with the fate of the 8th Brigade, a mechanized infantry brigade armed mostly with M-113 APCs, M-48 MBTs, 155mm howitzers and a wide assortment of other weapons. We were still training the newly reorganized brigade in small unit tactics when they were called to the Chouf Mountains at Souk Al Gharb. The 8th Brigade defended those positions against Druze and Syrian assaults for nearly a year. They did well. Other brigades did not. Some dissolved as the troops and leaders switched sides to the warring factions. The Lebanese Military managed to pull through, but they pale in comparison to the military forces of Hezbollah. They probably always will.
Building a national military takes many years. Few senior officers can make the transition to a new way of thinking and operating. It takes an intensive program of education and training among the junior officers and NCOs and the time to allow those junior officers and NCOs to become senior officers and NCOs. Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain together long enough to complete this transition? We shall see. We “Ukraine lovers” can take solace in the fact that, in spite of all those years of Gerasimov’s reforms, the Russian Armed Forces appear to be in even worse shape. Unfortunately Putin has a lot more meat to feed into his grinder if he and the Russian people are willing to do so. Ukraine cannot win a pure one-for-one war of attrition.
TTG
Russia’s war machine is still gearing up, at the very time when Ukraine is critically short of 2 crucial commodities; men and artillery shells. Russia’s claimed rate for Ukie casualties is back north of 1,000 a week. The next transition of the armed forces of the Ukraine will be into an insurgent army. Tom Cooper is right about their survival so far being a “major achievement”, that is an understatement.
Zaluzhny’s timing is impeccable. Syrskyi will get to ‘own’ Avdiivka and the coming collapse of the front. Perhaps this is deliberate and we’ll see Zaluzhny return, reputation intact, to head a new incarnation of the UPA. Or perhaps he’ll be involved in an unfortunate air crash.
Ukrainian army is overall short of one essential commodity : experienced soldiers, NCO and field officers.
See the 47 Brigade already destroyed 2 time or the experienced 110 in Avdiivka.
Only 1500 left out a 8 000 soldiers brigade already reinforced.
And you need 3 years to have new ones.
There will be no insurgency as long as russian army doesn’t cross Dniepr.
And they will not.
Aleksandar,
Ukraine is also short industrial capacity. They are almost completely reliant on the US/NATO, which also have limited industrial capacity. Ukraine’s fate is a fait accompli for that reason; always was.
Eric – I read up on US industrial production back then. It was unreal. One moment, empty fields and docks. The next, huge factories turning out tanks and planes and ships like shelling peas. All the engineering and design skills there – where did all those people come from, just like that? – and lead times so short they scarcely existed.
It’s the memory of that astonishing surge in American war production back then that is surely one of the reasons the Russians are playing the SMO the way they are.
This in Ukraine hasn’t been a “real war”, for all the talk. It’s a police action that’s ballooned. The Russians haven’t put anything like their full weight into it and the Americans scarcely at all. Neither the Americans nor the Russians are running a war time economy and some of the arms supply on both sides amounted to little more than clearing out the back shed. Might as well use the old stuff because it doesn’t keep for ever and it’s a nuisance to scrap or dispose of otherwise.
For all the grievous suffering and destruction, and stripping away all the myth, this is for us in reality no more than another proxy war that’s backfired. For the Russians – that comes over in that Tucker interview – it’s no more than some devilment the West’s got up to again. To be coped with but no sweat.
Barbara Ann above homed in on the key remark in that Tucker interview. “Don’t you have other things to do?”. Well, the Russians are saying, we have plenty of other things to do if you don’t, so we’ll tidy this lot up and get on with doing them.
So not a real war. Deconfliction arrangements working away in the background. Nothing much in the way of manpower from the Americans, and won’t be. For all the hysteria, certainly not a Russian attempt to plunder Borrell’s “Garden”. The Garden is semi-derelict and has been heading that way for decades. The Russians have no desire to pay for its upkeep.
In ’22 I used to write in to English blogs to try and tell them what’s going on. The Russians are just closing the door on Europe and making sure the door has locks, that’s all, I’d say.
And there were and are plenty of people, Russian and some Western, saying that the long Russian affair with Europe is done. Bill here put it so. “The Russians are riding East” he wrote. This is no “war” for them or us. This is merely goodbye.
But could it become war? Looking at the rancid politics of the West, the played out economies, the electorates so easy to delude, I suppose it could. How tempting for a decaying West to have a mission to get behind. We’re heading with no brakes for Cold War II, that much is clear, and there are enough around to want it hotter. The strutting pygmies of yesterday, the Bidens and Johnsons and Stoltenbergs, could well give way to more menacing figures and the bulk of us in the West would follow them eagerly. “We have always been at war with Eastasia”, is the cry I hear from many here and Putin stands in for us as our latter day Emmanuel Goldstein. Read the English press if you doubt me on that. Or the German.
And though the Russian political scene is pretty well a closed book to me and most of us in the West, it’s obvious there are enough Russians around who wouldn’t mind if that mucky scrap in the Donbass became the real thing. Putin’s not going to be around to hold them back for ever and the amused contempt that comes across from many Russians now could turn maybe to hatred. A lot of Russians have been killed and countless Ukrainians. They know full well that’s down to us.
So back to that wartime production surge in the States that seemingly in the blink of an eye turned the military also-ran of the ’30’s into a military superpower. Big surprise for Hitler, that, but then, that time was full of big surprises for him. Could such a surprise occur again?
And don’t let’s pretend that back then the Americans or the British or the French had to be on the right side. There were very many in Britain and France at that time, and in the US too, who would have far preferred to fight on the side of the Nazis rather than against them. This time round we’re all fighting alongside the White Tiger. Something of a mangy brute at present but the Russians’d be fools to imagine it’ll stay so for ever.
So what if the forthcoming Cold War became more than a scam for Rheinmetall and the like. What if it became more than a fake rallying the politicians could use to distract attention from our various domestic ills. What if it led to us in the West becoming a true military force again? I can’t imagine what a “real war” would look like these days, what with fancy rockets and drones and tactical nukes and all the rest of it, but one thing’s certain. It wouldn’t look anything like what we’re seeing in Ukraine. Could you ever have a good old fashioned all-out war between nuclear powers anyway?
If you could, and if the US these days could ever go full Willow Run again, the US’d be a handful. The Russians are playing this slow and easy for a number of reasons, but I bet one of those reasons is that they have no desire to wake up that sleeping giant across the Atlantic.
EO,
Totally agree. I grew up in Detroit, which was once upon a time a – if not the – major manufacturing hub of the USA. Born in 1964. My parents’ generation was full of people that ran or worked in “the engine of Democracy”. There were monuments all over the city to the ingenious total effort to produce for victory. The city is largely a wasteland now.
Right, no one is treating Ukraine v Russia like it is an existential disaster – and “no one” includes those who are screaming that it really really really is an existential disaster (Today Kiev. Tomorrow ze vorld!).
Indeed, the entire affair is a veritable half-assed effort all the way around, which includes the Russians, who, IMO, are fools to not crush Ukraine once and for all and end the global crisis waiting to happen.
It’s just more BS for the stupid masses (as you note) while select elites skim money off the top of the Ukraine funds and become wealthier. I’m helping pay for it, though I could care less about the outcome. Some permanent government employees – the lackies of the skimmers – have determined that what I care about (or don’t) doesn’t matter.
Btw, I keep seeing rabid poodles with megaphones in the Euro-media. Lately they’ve been referring to Crimea as “temporarily illegally occupied Crimea”, that kind of deranged foolishness. You tell me they’re not serious. I’m not so sure. Given the lack of serious war effort, like actually building stuff, I worry that nuclear is the only real option they have.
Which brings me back to Israel. Some people are opposed to Israel as a de facto US protectorate because they don’t see any value in the arrangement and utter inanities like, “what has Israel ever done for us? Islamic hordes never hurt anyone – and, Israel only has a right to exist if she can defend herself all on her own. Besides, Jews can just migrate to somewhere else” (the latter logic not being generalized to Zelensky/Ukrainians as, apparently, Russian hordes really really really are a threat to all humanity and Ukrainian lives and Ukrainian independence are better than Jewish lives and Jewish right to their own free state), but how dare anyone suggest antisemitism is at play here!
Unconditional and eternally support of the Zelensky regime looms large in the power centers of the west, even as the sawed-off little bastard comes to my government and lectures us all on how we need to throw more money and resources at his problem. He even demands that we take actions that, pretty much, would be provocations leading to direct war with Russia. But Israel is no good? Excuse me while I lose another few degrees of respect for the pro-Zelensky/anti-Netanyahu camp.
Everything is a joke these days. As the young folks say, “clown world”. It is very annoying – no, insulting – how the clowns and the circus ring leaders believe they are actually deceiving the people who have to pay for it all.
English Outsider,
The question of conscription is connected to the question of a wide-open southern frontier. The citizen soldier, shipped off to a foreign war, will return to find that his job has been taken by an illegal alien. He will have been replaced.
EO,
Btw, I must say that your comment is incredibly well written – they usually are, but this one struck me as exceptionally so. You have a gift. I certainly hope that you are at least partially employed in some kind of public relations or communications field. If not, you should be.
Tidewater,
I believe we discussed, some time ago, how our parents/ancestors have been laid to rest within a hundred yards of each, as you will I will be some day (Historic Christ Church). So perhaps we should not talk falsely to one another.
Do you really think that the United States can hold together for much longer when its citizens know they are being lied to by an increasingly insulated and distant ruling elite class, who tax without representing, who appear more concerned with foreign affairs than domestic issues and who seek to replace the tax paying invested citizens with hordes of illegal third world invaders?
The US military’s inability to achieve its recruitment goals is telling. The continued popularity of Donald Trump, who serves as a huge raised middle finger to the ruling class, is another sign that should not be ignored. Yet another is the Texas’ little rebellion against the federal government. I suppose the large number of people fleeing the liberal states, like California, for states like Texas, Florida and Tennessee is suggestive as well.
When do we put a stop, whatever it takes, to the misguided excesses of the fools in DC and the capitols of the liberal states? Or do we allow this country to go quietly into that good night?
Caught the echo, Eric. Fits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mRec3VbH3w
1000/wk? ok.
given Russian manpower losses are (at least) 4:1 greater than Ukraine’s, & the respective populations are 143M & 44M, I suppose one could roughly estimate a date when the Russian population will be fully depleted, & how many Ukrainians might remain.
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2024/01/making-attrition-work-a-viable-theory-of-victory-for-ukraine/
I haven’t complete confidence in quantitative analysis as THE predictor of victory in warfare. it is obviously valuable in production planning & force mobilization… & for support of post-conflict analysis. yet, over-dependence upon “the numbers” risks error – in combat as well as subsequent post-mortems.
Russia’s losses are about 18 th of Ukraines losses. Stop regurgitating SBU propaganda. Also the populatio of the Ukraine is now about 19-20M.
Peter Williams,
Don’t know Ukrainian losses, although I’m sure they’re big. Judging by video and photographic evidence, Russian losses are astronomical by modern warfare standards. BTW, where’s Gerasimov?
When Army A has 7x more ARTY than Army B,
Army B has more KIA/WIA/MIS than Army A.
It’s a basic military rule.
Gerasimov is like Putin and Shoigu and many others, killed 3 124 time by cancer, pneumonia, indigestion or Ukrainians.
And even if Gerasimov is dead, killed by cancer or ukrainians, what does it change ?
Nothing.
That’s a bit of cheap shot, TTG.
Assuming you are aware of who created the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/05/im-sorry-for-creating-the-gerasimov-doctrine/
LeaNder,
I’m still curious about the whereabouts of Gerasimov. Aside from what erroneously became known as the “Gerasimov doctrine” the Russian Armed Forces was supposedly undergoing a rapid and dramatic modernization. Part of that was the rise of the BTG which turned out to be a flop.
Peter, according to all current open sources, while Ukraine’s population has decreased in recent years, it remains at least 35M+. upon war’s end (at least if Ukraine “wins”), millions will return who have taken up temporary residence in allied nations. anyway, you may be as mistaken or biased as you wish, but don’t bother teling me what to do – it doesn’t work.
Ukraine refugees by and large are never going back unless deported. It’s hard to find info on their thoughts but the articles and videos I’ve seen, no way those people going back. They hit the jackpot if they went to a main EU hub.
“by and large are never…”?
opportunity (not to mention, family roots) abhors a vacuum – clean, corrupt &/or in-between. they certainly aren’t going back if Russia wins. in fact, Vlad will be offering acreage to whatever remains of Russia’s army to repopulate the place. ‘course, they’ll have to do their own EOD.
n 2019 the government ran an electronic census using multiple sources, including mobile phone and pension data, and estimated that Ukraine’s population, excluding Crimea and parts of the Donbas, to be 37.3 million.
But 8 millions emigrated to europe since 2022.
2 millions in the south are now russian citizens.
Ukraine population : 27 millions.
Not enough.
How convenient: the Russians have a 3-4 times population advantage, while also suffering 4 times the casualties even though they are expending at least 4 times the artillery.
A bit too convenient to me.
yeah. the range was 4:1 to 10:1, so I chose the most “conservative”. to be clear, again, I don’t make any final analysis in the realm of human behaviors (individual or collective) based solely upon quantities – numbers are just another relevant factor (pardon pun).
Errata: That should of course read “1,000 a day”.
no big deal. it’s all in ratio, from all I’ve read from various sources. regardless… the point of the IISS study bears consideration. an attrition through defense strategy is viable. an invader’s offense tends to require more troops & spends more of their lives than homeland defense. & still no assurance of war victory via battle victory.
this war has appeared stalemated for some time… one protagonists seem willing to suffer while they adjust to minimizing that suffering through technology & novel tactics. Gaza reminds us that the Three Block War (hat tip to Commandant Krulak) is passe. the 3 blocks are all blown to bits (residents included) in one fell swoop.
I expect to see more & more of underground-centric life & defense. a more extensive take on an ancient paradigm. troops & population scurrying from one safe citadel far beneath the stars to another – unseen & unseeing. yet alive & forever fighting for self-determination.
what’s Vlad fighting for? face? a vision of lost Empire? he can’t see it in the dark… darkness accompanies him day & night – everywhere. haven’t mentioned it in some time.
Slava Ukraini
Zelensky just put a Russian in charge of Ukie military.
While Syrsky is taking over command from Zaluzhny, Syrsky’s parents (living in Russia) are declaring loyalty to Putin and Russia on social media.
What a mess. I mean, transition.
wiz,
Syrsky has been a Ukrainian as long as Ukraine declared independence. He fought against the Separatists and Russians at Debaltseve in 2015 and commanded the surprisingly successful reconquest of Kharkiv Oblast in 2022. He also led the pig headed defense of Bakhmut which cost the lives of a lot of Ukrainian soldiers. He’s hardly a transition.
I thought Zelensky would go with Zabrodsky but I guess loyalty trumps competence.
Syrski has a chance to repeat his Bakhmut experience in Avdeevka. Maybe, he should call his dad and ask for military advice.
Before Bakhmut he was responsible for Debaltseve defeat,
Popasna defeat and Soledar defeat.
” they could barely muster a force of 6,000 in 2015″
That’s years before the Russians launched their “special military operation”. Who paid for all that transformation? Is there an audit trail of all the money we gave them before, and since the SMO?
Fred,
“To date, we have provided approximately $44.2 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and more than $47 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014.”
That’s from a DoS document. That includes security assistance, foreign military sales, Presidential Drawdown Authority from existing military stocks, donations of excess equipment and third party transfers from other NATO allies.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/#:~:text=From%202004%20to%202021%2C%20the,manage%20weapons%20and%20ammunition%20stockpiles.
Not justifying Russia’s Gaza strip operation, only saying that Russia approached NATO with a ‘Security agreement’ and we told them to pound sand. Had we tried ‘appeasement’ who knows what would have happened?
Had we replied with a reasonable counter offer or at least engaged them and Putin still invaded Ukraine then at the very least he would not have the popular support from Russians.
Lol. You see the green pieces of paper that were once trees in that forest you can’t observe. How did all those Nazis and assorted extremists get moderated into regular patriotic Ukrainians so quickly?
Fred,
Ukraine still has right wing, nationalists nutters just like most, if not all, other countries. They’ve just lost power and influence. With their wartime president and prime minister both being Jewish, those Ukrainian nazis have to engage in complete denial or deep introspection. I don’t know what accounts for that rapid loss of power and influence, but by the 2019 elections, they were gone from political power.
When you have a big gun, you don’t need political power.
TTG – I think this one is without misprints and errors!
…………………………………
TTG – one of the greatest successes of the Western information war has been persuading us that the neo-Nazis lost influence and power a few years ago.
Late last night I submitted a brief summary on that. Somewhere near the bottom of the comment section:-
https://turcopolier.com/ukrainian-attack-may-have-crushed-production-of-russias-deadliest-drone/
In that comment I submitted a link to a list of OUN and similar monuments in Ukraine:-
https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/
Some of these monuments are recent and attest to the growing influence of the ultra-nationalists rather than to any diminution of that influence:-
“Kyiv — In 2016, a major Kyiv boulevard was renamed after Bandera. The renaming is particularly obscene since the street leads to Babi Yar, the ravine where Nazis, aided by Ukrainian collaborators, exterminated 33,771 Jews in two days, in one of the largest single massacres of the Holocaust. Both the Simon Wiesenthal Center and the World Jewish Congress condemned the move.”
“Above right, the annual torchlight march on Bandera’s birthday in 2021; during the 2017 commemorations marchers chanted “Jews Out!””
That only on the first page. There are many other examples showing the the OUN is still an iconic movement for many in Ukraine.
Budanov and the recently dismissed Zaluzhny are both strong ultra-nationalists and are photographed in front of OUN placards. As indicated in that comment I submitted, the Western press gives an entirely false picture of the determining influence these neo-Nazis have in Ukrainian politics.
In fact the Western press has created for us an imaginary Ukraine – a homogenous country struggling towards Freedom and Democracy, where the only pro-Russians are infiltrated Russian agents and the priests of the Church the neo-Nazis are trying to suppress are sinister spies to be eradicated.
And the Western press and the information warrior analysts give us a similarly false picture of the war. I mentioned, in that comment section linked to, Lee and Kofman but we must include the ISW and of course, in my own country, pretty well the entire commentariat. I do not believe such analysts are themselves mislead. They set themselves to misleading us.
Add to that the caricature of Russian motives and intentions that passes for rational analysis and it is apparent that this vast Western information machine has thoroughly mislead the peoples of the West.
Though when I look at the predominant European power, Germany, I think that many there are eager to be mislead. So too in England though one hopes not to that extent. The reason this information war has been so successful is that we in Europe started out with a strong Russophobic tendency in the first place. We want to believe the nonsense because we need proof that the Russians are evil, “Proof” that the information warriors are only too ready to invent for us.
But at some time all this arrant nonsense will collide with reality. To bring an old tale up to date, we may imagine two Russians generals picking their way through the ruins of a conquered Berlin.
“By the way, who won the information war?”
“Oh the West did of course. No question. We were never in with a chance.”
EO,
We had a president who called a band of neo-nazis holding a torch light parade around a confederate monument shouting “Jews will not replace us” good people. We have an elected congressional representative ranting about Jewish space lasers causing wild fires. Like the poor, I’m afraid the neo-nazis and neo-nazi adjacents will always be among us.
English Outsider –
Bandera was a fanatical Ukrainian nationalist obsessed with a lost cause. You’re correct that he is an icon in Ukraine. It’s a cult because he is viewed as a martyr there, a martyr to independence from the Soviet Union. During WW2, when Bandera wasn’t under house arrest in Germany, he spent two plus years in Sachenhausen Concentration Camp. The Nazis wanted to use him but they mistrusted his commitment to Ukrainian Independence. They finally released him and 300 OUN members from prison in December 1944 to form a guerilla unit behind the advancing Soviet Army. But that never happened.
After the war his knowledge of Ukraine and contacts there was exploited by British Intelligence, American Army CIC, plus the West German Gehlen Organization & its successor the BND. That is one of the reasons the Soviets hated him so much. When extradition failed the KGB tried to kidnap and/or assassinate him numerous times until they finally succeeded in 1959. Interesting that the KGB assassin, Bohdan Stashynsky, that successfully whacked Bandera with cyanide spray was a Ukrainian from Lviv in western Ukraine. That same assassin had previously murdered Lev Rebet, another OUN leader, who had also spent time in Nazi concentration camps.
As for the OUN, yes, some of them but not all participated in pogroms or rounded up Jews for the Nazis. Those that did had been suckered in by the ’Jewish-Bolshevik canard’ which started in the racist propaganda of the anti-communist White Russian forces during the Russian Civil War. They weren’t the only ones duped, so was the rest of Europe back then including many in your fair country and in mine.
Early on the OUN was primarily against Poles and Polish domination over much of western Ukraine. Later after Holodomor they were anti-Russian and anything Bolshevik regardless of ethnicity. In any case their anti-Semitism was no worse than Hungary’s ‘Arrow Cross’ fascists, Romanian ‘Iron Guard’, Croatian ‘Ustashe’. And you have forgotten to mention the ethnic Russian collaborators that aided and abetted the Holocaust in Russia’s Smolensk, Briansk, Rostov-on-Don, and Krasnodar.
Bandera was no worse than France’s Pierre Laval, or Slovak President & Priest Josef Tiso, or many other non-German Holocaust perpetrators throughout Europe. Bandera’s antisemitism was nothing compared to Stalin’s, who during his meeting with Nazi Germany’s foreign minister Joachim von Ribbentrop promised to get rid of the “Jewish domination”, especially among the intelligentsia. He fired Jews from government posts, murdered many Jewish Bolsheviks including Trotsky, Zinoviev, Kamenev, Litvinov. He murdered Jewish poets, novelists, academics and doctors. And uprooted and sent a million plus Jews to die in the Far East of Russia, not counting those he sent to the gulag.
TTG,
Oh wow. The TDS is still strong with you after all this time?
I can’t believe that you are repeating “The good people” hoax. Trump never said that the neo-nazi punks were good people. There were many more people than those guys at the rally. There were non-neo-nazis who thought the statue should stay (as I did and still do).
Brace yourself because Trump is going to be your POTUS again.
Eric Newhill,
You’re right. I first thought of Trump as just a nasty person with some nasty ideas. Certainly no one I’d vote for, but what the hell, give it a try. Hillary was certainly no gem. Now I see him as an addle-brained megalomaniac bent on personal vengeance, a true danger to America. But he could very well be POTUS again.
The stated purpose of that “Unite the Right” rally was to unite white supremacists groups into a national movement as well as protesting the removal of the Charlottesville Confederate monuments. The protesters consisted of over a dozen white supremacist, neo-nazi and neo-confederate groups and militias. The counter-protesters were a collection of liberals, socialists, a large group of locals and, yes, even antifa groups. I don’t know who among those white supremacist, neo-nazi and neo-confederate groups Trump thought were among the fine people on both sides. Maybe he was referring to those who strongly support the preservation of Confederate monuments not at that rally. That would be reasonable. Two days later he did read a statement explicitly condemning the KKK, neo-nazis, white supremacists and other hate groups as criminals and thugs. I have no idea if there was any sincerity in that statement.
TTG,
You fell for the hoax. Where’s the actual text of the statement he made the same day and not the truncated soundbite version everyone heard repeatedly?
“There were very fine people on both sides, & I’m not talking about the Neo-nazis and white supremacists because they should be condemned totally.”
“You’re changing history. You’re changing culture. And you had people — and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists — because they should be condemned totally. But you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists.”
I don’t about this. This US military underwent a tremendous transformation 1941 – 1945. As did US weapons development, economy – the shebang really. I know less about the Soviet military of the era, but I believe they too evolved successfully in every way during WW2.
Tucker did a fair job – not least in surviving Putin’s 30 minute history tutorial. The overall impression was that of a yawning divide between two worlds. On one side a journalist from an environment which deals in superficial sound bites and short format Q&A designed for easy consumption. And on the other a man of encyclopedic knowledge weary from nearly a quarter of a century of dealing with agreement-incapable psychopathic imbeciles, intent only on destruction.
“Don’t you have anything better to do?”
BA
Putin didn’t do this long interview for the audience in the West. The average American, European will just go to the MSM to get a one sentence explanation why Putin is the new Hitler and the West’s politicians simply don’t care.
This interview was a documentation of sorts.
wiz
I agree. Tucker is to be commended for trying, but it is absolutely clear Putin is done engaging with the zero-sum-gamers of the West. The freak outs in Legacy Media are all the more amusing because Putin made no effort whatsoever to win ‘propaganda’ points, despite being given many opportunities to do so. As he said, it is simply not cost-effective for Russia to try and compete with the West’s propaganda Leviathan. The attitude of resignation and total indifference must have seemed extraordinary to the average viewer whose world view is Americocentric. Tucker may as well have been interviewing a man from Mars.
Barbara Ann. I don’t think he was talking to us at all. Nor even much to his interviewer. He was explaining to his own countrymen and women how this mess had come about and how it is to be dealt with. He doesn’t expect us to take it in. By now he doesn’t much care whether we do or not.
“… dealing with agreement-incapable psychopathic imbeciles, intent only on destruction.” I don’t think it can be put any other way.
Yes but not only.
It was for the “Global South.”
Viewed also in Africa, South America and so.
Around 100 millions views in China only.
A world event.
In Brasil they broadcast then Biden’s press conference.
A slaughter !
Well Barbara, interesting comment I might actually agree with, somewhat, if the core reason why wasn’t this bit:
On one side a journalist from an environment which deals in superficial sound bites and short format Q&A designed for easy consumption.
and I actually accept that this blog should not be Anti-American!
Isn’t that slightly Anti-American, considering that is the side of the journalist? And considering the US of A cannot move back to control all those easy, superficial, Q&A soundbites. It can? Trump will?
LeaNder
Tucker considered it his personal patriotic duty to do this interview. He said he thought it was in the interests of Americans to hear it from the horse’s mouth. Good for him. Why has no representative of the corporate news media done this before, if their job is to inform American citizens? What is the role of an MSM journalist in the US in 2024? The sad fact is that almost all organs of the Republic have been corrupted or co-opted into representing the interests of the 0.01%. We live in Goebbels’ cave, not Plato’s. The producers of the shadows on the wall are the MSM and they do it at the direction of their owners; the oligarchy.
I escaped the cave some time ago. The journey started with a realization that I was watching shadows and an interest in taking a look at the hidden world beyond the cave. I would not recommend the journey to everyone. It is lonely out here, but becoming less so. Almost nobody is genuinely interested in seeing the truth of things and besides, it is so much easier to consume a news ‘feed’ rather than curate your own. And so millions continue to stare at the comfortably familiar shadows. No chains are even required to restrain them. Many will still be staring at the wall when the roof caves in. Heck, I’ve even learned where the charges have been placed and still very few folk want to know. We are truly an odd species, or maybe it’s just me.
Barbara Ann,
“Why has no representative of the corporate news media done this before?”
Quite a few have asked for an interview, but Putin refused those requests. I’m sure they would have been more probing or confrontational so it’s no surprise P{utin refused those requests.
TTG
That’s probably true, but you just need to look at the spin being put on excerpts from Tucker’s interview to understand why Putin would have refused. Whatever your position on Tucker’s politics he offered a 2 hour interview totally uncut for the audience to interpret as they see fit. Trusting Americans to make up their own minds – what heresy.
What, exactly, is you understanding of “an interview”?
To my mind it is an opportunity for the viewing public to gain an understanding about the character, motivations and explanations of the person being interviewed.
TTG: ” I’m sure they would have been more probing or confrontational so it’s no surprise P{utin refused those requests”
You appear to be describing an “interrogation” in an adversarial manner.
And, yes, if that’s what the “few” were intending then I wouldn’t blame anyone for refusing to be put through such a travesty.
After all, a journalist is not a barrister, nor are they a law-enforcement officer.
Yeah, Right,
A journalistic interview should be more than offering an opportunity for a monologue. Putin has given plenty of speeches covering what he said in this interview. A journalist should probe deeper, but Putin would probably consider that espionage according to what he said in this interview.
TTG,
can you point to an interview with Biden or Kamala that follows those precepts you laid out?
Fred,
Watch any press conference. The October 2023 60 Minutes interview was far more a give and take than the Tucker interview with Putin. Damned near any interview with Harris is more confrontational than the Putin interview, although I think she brings a lot of that on herself.
TTG: “Watch any press conference. ”
Again, that is not an “interview”. A press conference is not at all the same thing. Not even close.
I thought Tucker did a terrific interview: he asked questions, and he allowed Putin to answer those questions. He did not interrupt, he did not attempt to put words in Putin’s mouth.
And when Putin’s answer was not clear (and that is not the same thing as the answer not being what Tucker wanted to hear, which is a crucial difference) then he asked Putin to elaborate.
I learnt far more about what the Russians thought, about what motivated them, and about where the Russians thought they were heading because I listened to that interview.
And, love ’em or loath them, it is far more important to know those things than it is to get the cheap thrill of seeing an antagonistic interviewer attempt to get under the skin of the person they are interviewing.
Barbara Ann, you are not alone in refusing to look at the shadows on the walls of the cave, count me in. What really amazes me all these people who profess we are the greatest nation in the world etc, refuse to take a look at the person who pretends to be their leader. Take for instance there was a tragic accident in Ohio almost 2 and half years ago, the President of the country didn’t have time to travel there to comfort his fellow country men. However there was another tragedy in Israel on Oct 7th and the President of US wasted precious little time to fly to that far away country to comfort the leaders of that country. The so called greatest investigative media in the world didn’t raise an eye brow about this treatment. I am not saying that US should not offer solace to the victims of the attack on Oct 7th what I am saying is why no such sympathy for our country men? Talking about MSM interviewing Putin why would he allow such boorish morons to ask him questions and then interrupt him often when he is answering their question? I have seen quite a few interviews by BBC and ABC journalists who are disrespectful of a person they are interviewing but when it comes to Biden or Obama they are so much full of love and adoration it is almost like a love fest not an interview. Oh by the way the did you see what the special prosecutor said about the mental condition of the current president? Amazing is it not? Thanks
Muralidhar Rao
Thanks, it’s nice to have some company. Yes, it seems the “we need to talk about Joe” moment has finally arrived.
Aleksandar made a good point above re impressions of Putin vs. Biden in the world at large. It would be very interesting to hear your views on perceptions in India re the momentous changes Putin was describing in the interview (the rise of BRICS etc.).
I regularly read M K Bhadrakumar’s blog and it is clear the unstoppable force of the Global South is meeting an immovable object. That object is in the form of an entrenched ‘PNAC’ attitude among the current foreign policy elite in the US (what Col. Lang used to call the Borg) who have no interest in a multi-polar world. Something must surely give, and soon.
Barbara, I was actually as amused as Putin seemed to be about Tucker at points. He clearly did not take him seriously. What was Tucker trying to communicate to his audience with his frozen mime? He is rather inimical in that field.
Gilbert Doctorow, who puzzles me for longer now, reports of high expectations inside Russia, with Putin ultimately botching an extraordinary chance to shape public opinion both inside and abroad.
Carlson was true to form, posing with a blank, puzzled face the whole time. However, there were flashes of Putin that we normally do not see, and they were not at all flattering. Perhaps it was barely contained annoyance with this pushy American, but Putin allowed himself to display arrogance that contradicted the modest composure we most commonly see. That will not win many friends for Russia.
Blank puzzled? Almost frozen, in something, he may have wanted to look like what? Or was he not acting but frozen in awe?
We have to be careful with Doctorow, LeaNder. A gossip. At least I hope it’s gossip. Some of the things he claims are so appalling they make you feel sick.
The apocalyptic Dugin’s take is as you’d expect different. He reckons that in that interview Putin was saying, traditionalists of the world unite. Or it’s nukes.
So as many different takes as there are commentators.
And please don’t knock Tucker. You’ve no idea what a relief it is to see that direct interviewing approach. When you’ve had your fill of the ingratiating simper adopted by the prog interviewers on the BBC, it’s a refreshing change.
Loved the history lesson. Saint Olga of Kiev was something of a hell raiser. Wiki:-
“Olga then instructed her army to attach a piece of sulphur bound with small pieces of cloth to each bird. At nightfall, Olga told her soldiers to set the pieces aflame and release the birds. They returned to their nests within the city, which subsequently set the city ablaze.
” As the Primary Chronicle tells it: “There was not a house that was not consumed, and it was impossible to extinguish the flames, because all the houses caught fire at once.”[22] As the people fled the burning city, Olga ordered her soldiers to catch them, killing some of them and giving the others as slaves to her followers. She left the remnant to pay tribute.”
Eat your heart out, Bellatrix Baerbock. Try as you will you’ll not match that. Or at least with any luck she won’t.
LeaNder
I wholeheartedly agree with Doctorow’s critique of the Putin interview, he has followed it up here. Doctorow is quite correct to point out that the invasion was justifiable for reasons of realpolitik alone and that Putin completely blew a chance to get this point across. Instead, the 30 minute lecture on romantic nationalism was a gift to those many critics of Putin who see his actions as being driven purely by irredentism.
Even if the brotherly nation stuff is an post facto justification for what had to be done in the interests of national security, it is evident Putin does have a strong irredentist streak. This may even be a desirable feature of domestic communications during wartime. What should worry folks a lot more is that it is also clear he doesn’t care that he gives this impression to Russia’s enemies overseas.
Now when I say that I don’t mean that he might scare the European NATO leaders into thinking they are next – some have convinced themselves of that already anyway. This is a ludicrous idea – Putin has no intention of starting a direct war of choice with NATO. What I mean is what it tells us about his mindset. Is this lack of care because he sees victory around the corner? That would be a reassuring take on Putin’s mental state. Is it because he sees the longer process by Russia’s enemies as leading to the inevitable ultimate escalation and is resigned to it? That is a very much less favorable take and one I suspect may be closer to the truth. In any case I did not find it reassuring to see the controller of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal behaving in this manner.
Barbara Ann –
“Goebbels’s cave.” I love it! Love love love.
Spelling suggestion, since it’s no longer the third and fourth decade of the 20th century ..
Goebbelsteinowitz’s cave!
Boo hoo, bad me. Using Auntie’s Emetic medicinals can induce serious regurgitation in the lands in which Goebbelstein’s radio & tv stations broadcast worldwide 24/7. Too bad, run to the toiletstein or better – keep your barfowitz bags handy. If you insist on feeding us barfstein from barfowitz to where we are stuffed to the gills with it, then barf we must. I don’t personally use or patronize Auntie’s Emetic, it’s just developed all by itself – my need to puke, that is.
Barbara Ann,
Russians do tend to love the sound of their own voice.
In or around 2012, I asked a Ukrainian from Lviv “whats this whole blue vs orange thing” and I think he basically gave me the same history lesson that Putin gave … shortened down to about 60 seconds. Then he asked me “What do you think?”.
That’s the difference between Russians and Western-Ukrainians … Russians don’t tend to ask “What do you think?”.
It’s more a difference between Western-Ukrainians and Eastern- Ukrainians
Sir you say “Russians do tend to love the sound of their own voice.” How about us Americans touting day in and out Greatest nation on the earth, greatest military in the world etc etc, all the while touting our founding fathers while ignoring the advise of one of the founders George Washington not to get involved in foreign wars, and finding an enemy under every rock “we got to fight them there before we got to fight them here” while leaving our borders wide open but can’t wait to fund the foreign wars. My friend we live in a cave and our rulers are scared to death of any light other than the projection of our shadows on the wall. This greatest nation is so hoodwinked I just can’t believe it. What happened to the critical thinking and asking appropriate questions of our leaders? Here is an explanation from the special prosecutor examining the case of Pres Biden’s garage “In his interview with our office, Mr. Biden’s memory was worse. He did not remember when he was vice president, forgetting on the first day of the interview when his term ended (“if it was 2013, when did I stop being Vice President?”), and forgetting on the second day of the interview when his term began (“in 2009, am I still Vice president?”). He did not remember even within several years, when his son Beau died. And his memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him.” We may tell ourselves all the tall tales about our greatness but the rest of the world is not dumb, but they are dumb founded how we elect such people and put the fate of the country and the world in their hands, because of our stock pile of nukes. Thanks
I thought Putin was pretty sly when he slid in that Russian troops withdrew from the Kiev sector because a negotiated settlement was imminent. Then old Boris, the US’ errand boy, screwed it up. But a great – and palatable – explanation of the Kiev withdrawal for the Russian audience.
Love him or hate him, the man is good at what he does. Can you imagine Joe Biden being interviewed by Tucker for two hours?
The withdrawal from the Kiev sector you mention is interesting. Putin:-
“And it was not our initiative because we were told by the Europeans in particular that it was necessary to create conditions for the final signing of the documents.
” My counterparts in France, in Germany said, How can you imagine them signing a treaty with a gun to their heads? The troops should be pulled back from Kiev.”
” I said, all right. We withdrew the troops from Kiev. As soon as we pulled back our troops from Kiev, our Ukrainian negotiators immediately threw all our agreements reached in Istanbul into the bin and got prepared for a long standing armed confrontation with the help of the United States and its satellites in Europe.
” That is how the situation has developed, and that is how it looks now.”
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/putin-carlson-interview-full-transcript
Not saying I don’t believe Putin’s story. I’m sure it happened as he said and no doubt there are documents to prove it. I do think that as Putin stated it it’s a simplified or partial story, partial to the point of being misleading. The evolutions around Kiev before and at that time had a multitude of reasons behind them, some of which we don’t yet know about for sure, and to take but one facet of the story without putting that facet in full context cannot but mislead.
But to simplify is always to mislead, I suppose, and it would have taken Tucker and Putin a couple of hours to look into all the reasons for those evolutions around Kiev. The reason that section is interesting is that it focuses yet again on the duplicity of the European politicians. As with the Minsk negotiations, they were in there beavering away and doing what they do best. Playing both sides against the middle. Clever stuff but, as usual, harming themselves mindlessly.
The contempt the Russians now feel for these these latter day Bismarcks without the clout, these inept tricksters with their grandiose dreams of “projecting the power of a Continent!”, comes across throughout. Never more so than when Tucker, artful devil that he is, suddenly pops in a question from nowhere. “Who blew up Nord Stream?”
Well at least we now know it probably wasn’t Tucker. With the ready wit that distinguishes him from the usual crop of media talking heads he claims “I was busy that day” . No doubt has his documents ready to prove it too. But that was for me the one point in the interview when Putin drops his guard and we see fully on show the vast contempt he now has for the Europoodles:-
Tucker – “Why are they being silent about it? That’s very confusing to me. Why wouldn’t the Germans say something about it?”
Putin – ” This also confuses me, but today’s German leadership is guided by the interests of the collective West rather than its national interests. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain the logic of their action or inaction.
” After all, it is not only about Nord Stream one, which was blowing up and the Nord Stream two was damaged, but one pipe is safe and sound and gas can be supplied to Europe through it.
” But Germany does not open it. We are ready. Please.
“There is another route through Poland called Yamal Europe, which also allows for large flow. Poland has closed it, but Poland pecks from the German hand. It receives money from the pan European funds, and Germany is the main donor to these pan-European funds. Germany feeds Poland to a certain extent and they close their route to Germany.
” Why? I don’t understand Ukraine, to which the Germans supply weapons and give money. Germany is the second sponsor (after) the United States in terms of financial aid to Ukraine. There are two gas routes through Ukraine. They simply closed one route. The Ukrainians. Open the second route. And please get gas from Russia. They do not open it.
“Why don’t the Germans say, look, guys, we give you money and weapons. Open up the valve. Please let the gas from Russia pass through for us. We are buying liquefied gas at exorbitant prices in Europe, which brings the level of our competitiveness and economy in general down to zero. So do you want us to give you money?
” Let us have the decent existence to make money for our economy, because this is where the money we give you comes from.They refuse to do so. Why? Ask them. That is what (it) is like in their heads. Those are highly incompetent people.”
In the course of digging around of an evening I do a little transcribing, often of translated interviews. Very little, but I know how difficult it is to extract meaning from transcripts of off the cuff speaking. Also how risky it is to deduce policy positions from such fragments. But there’s no doubt from those two fragments, and from other episodes in the long running Merkel/Scholz Drang nach Osten, that the Russians have now taken the measure of the Europoodles and found them wanting.
…………………………………
File under “Poodle”, together with the Merkel/Hollande/Poroshenko admissions on the Minsk 2 trickery. More important by far is what the key figures are after. Will President Biden finally stop putting his proxies through the mincer. Or is he really going to fight to the last Ukrainian. Suppose, as ever with US foreign policy, it’ll depend on what plays best for the next election.
But if, like me, you live in Europoodle land, it’s difficult not to wonder what Barbarossa Scholz was playing at when he led us all into this disaster.
EO,
That excerpt from the Putin interview seems to show him as being absolutely flabbergasted that his gas did not turn out to be the ultimate weapon to keep Europe in line, that he can do whatever he wants to Ukraine as long as his cheap gas continues to flow. He cannot wrap his head around the fact that Ukraine and the Ukrainians are real and will not cease to exist merely because Putin wished them to disappear.
TTG
He was fine with Ukrainians existing until it was hijacked by foreign and nationalist forces and became a threat to Russia and to other Ukrainians who did not want to recognize the coup government.
I think he is more amazed that Germany would act against its interest.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-10/why-germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end
Sir how is it a weapon in Putin’s hands when the actual beneficiaries’ of this gas are the Germans. Would you like to pay $10/gal for gas at posh high end gas station rather than going rate of say $5/gal In my opinion Putin is a business man just like Trump, wants to make money while keeping his customers happy with a reasonable price. Just think about it there is a looming recession in Germany and they had a negative GDP growth in ’23. Yhsnkd
Muralidhar Rao,
A simple proposition really. If you take my cheap gas, I expect you to tow my line.
Gas or no gas, Russia will not stop to do whatever she wants to Ukraine.
aleksandar,
And therein lies the problem.
Barbara Ann –
“encyclopedic knowledge”? According to a Russkie “Putin told the entire Russian history course for the 7-8th grades”. And then he threw in some of his personal made-up fictions.
Everything said by political leaders outside ” The West ” is made-up fiction.
On this other side everything said by ” The West ” is made-up fiction since Powell infamous presentation to UN.
leith,
How is the president of the United States doing? He can ride a bicycle! Like a 7-8th grader, but is he mentally competent?
Biden’s own lawyers just said that he’s too old and slow to understand classified document laws. Actually, that means he was too old and slow back when he was VP. He must be borderline vegetable by now. But no mean tweets! Hooray!
Eric,
Biden’s lawyers came up with an excuse that Joe could use ’cause he is a loyal democrat, just like BLM, Antifa, illegal immigrants, etc. Laws are for those other people.
An interesting analysis from Mick Ryan:
https://link.foreignaffairs.com/click/34285233.826382/
“Russia’s Adaptation Advantage
Early in the War, Moscow Struggled to Shift Gears—but Now It’s Outlearning Kyiv”
“after two years of war, the adaptation battle has changed. The quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has closed.
Ukraine still has an innovative and bottom-up military culture, which allows it to quickly introduce new battlefield technologies and tactics. But it can struggle to make sure that those lessons are systematized and spread throughout the entire armed forces.
Russia, on the other hand, is slower to learn from the bottom up because of a reluctance to report failure and a more centralized command philosophy. Yet when Russia does finally learn something, it is able to systematize it across the military and through its large defense industry.
These differences are reflected in the ways the two states innovate. Ukraine is better at tactical adaptation: learning and improving on the battlefield. Russia is superior at strategic adaptation, or learning and adaptation that affects national and military policymaking, such as how states use their resources. Both forms of adaptation are important.
But it is the latter type that is most crucial to winning wars.”
Whoops, that link should have been:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-adaptation-advantage
Keith Harbaugh,
I read that last night. He makes good points. Russia has definitely proven she can adapt during war as she did in WWII. I think if Russia ever gets a true handle on her massive, ingrained corruption problem either through patriotic fervor or oppression, she will be tough to prevail against.
Plus the Chief of Staff General Shaptala and who else? Syrskyi will bring in his own team.
Who gets Syrskyi’s old job as Commander of Ground Forces, maybe Moysiuk? And who gets the job of the new Ukrainian ‘Unmanned Systems Force’? Fedorov, the government technology guru, has no military experience and is probably key in other fields such as cyber. That’s going to be a tough job with the competing priorities from Budanov’s HUR, the Ground Forces, and the Navy. Zabrodskyi has the chops if he wants it.
I was way off on the Moisiuk and Zabrodskyi prediction. It’s being reported now that General Pavlyuk is getting Syrskyi’s old job. And a lesser known general, Barhylevych formerly commanding the Territorial Defense Force, will get General Shaptala’s job as head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
Pavlyuk perhaps has some Cossack ancestry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlyuk_uprising
TTG..
Although detached from your main story, here’s an article from Eurasian Times that includes the US Army, Ukrain and drones.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-us-army-dump-its-multi-billion/amp/.
The announcement of abandoning the program, which cost the service $2 billion, was made on February 8, 2024. Army Chief of Staff General Randy George said, “We are learning from the battlefield – especially in Ukraine – that aerial reconnaissance has fundamentally changed.”
He further explained, “Sensors and weapons mounted on a variety of unmanned systems and in space are more ubiquitous, further reaching, and more inexpensive than ever before.”
The Army announced it would expand its expenditure on uncrewed aircraft following a “sober assessment of the modern battlefield”
The issue of Army aviation is covered in considerable detail here:
US Army spent billions on a new helicopter that now will never fly
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-billions-on-a-new-helicopter-that-now-will-never-fly/
Here is commentary on the fiscal problems the Army is facing:
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/terminating-the-fara-helo-program-was-the-right-call-by-the-army-chief/
“The fiscal dysfunction in Washington, exploding costs associated with nuclear modernization, and lessons learned on the Ukraine battlefield
should begin driving changes in long-held modernization plans, and previously sacred cows need to be on the table.”
Is this really the time to send $60G to Ukraine, to, among other things, hire Colombian mercenaries to fight for Ukraine?
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-colombian-foreign-fighters-professional-soldiers-07b5cb7949bd10234e7456f9c1c20b08
“Corporals in Colombia get a basic salary of around $400 a month, while experienced drill sergeants can earn up to $900. Colombia’s monthly minimum wage is currently $330.
In Ukraine any member of the armed forces, regardless of citizenship, is entitled to a monthly salary of up to $3,300, depending on their rank and type of service. They are also entitled to up to $28,660 if they are injured, depending on the severity of the wounds. If they are killed in action, their families are due $400,000 compensation.”
No doubt paid effectively by the U.S.
Keith and Rob,
I agree with the Army Chief’s decision to terminate this recon helicopter program. That money will be better spent on capable recon drones… and lots of them.
A Russkie Telegram channel is anticipating a Zaluzhnyi coup to overthrow Zelenskyi.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755628808714039620
The Kremlin dezinformatsiya organ will soon start pumping out that theme to sow discord.
leith,
the next Ukrainian offensive will be the real deal as they have capable and loyal generals in charge now.
A very revealing interview with an Australian merc that spent a lot of time in Ukraine.
He didn’t have a lot of good things to say about the GUR, Budanov and Ukrainian special operations in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GS5LqOBcrc
Well past time it stopped. What the resolute heroes of Washington, Brussels, Westminster, forget as they insist the war continues.-
https://youtu.be/eHqPQAFN25E?t=771
The Final Countdown Has Begun | Ukraine Cannot Stabilize Front Line. Military Summary For 2024.02.10
King Vladimir left this out in his overview of Russia and Ukraine. That’s OK. A pity, but what can you do?
Ukrainians originally, singing in Russian:
Potoki Vetra (Потоки Ветра) – Tamerlane & Alena (title sort of means Streams of Wind)
https://youtu.be/v32R4BdrCa8
Studio version of above with lyrics in the header:
Potoki Vetra
https://youtu.be/EFIpwO4l6-I
Possibly my favorite song in any language.
But you must needs adjust your dial to Time = 1 hr 16 min 56 sec. Sorry I can’t figure out how to get the time URL since they added the source tracer tag. (Can’t have anyone robbing Fort Knox or adding vitamins to Joe Biden’s morning porrige, no we can’t, so everyone recommending a YouTube video must of course be traceable by CIA, NSA, GCHQ etc etc. It’s called freedom & democracy).
Concert in Siberia – Malets (Малец) – Бутырка – title means “Kid” as in young fellow, it’s a mostly prison slang term. Butirka (Бутырка) is the famous prison in Moscow founded by Catherine the great which held Solzhenitsyn for awhile.
https://youtu.be/7ty4MZbFjPA
Still One More Day (Ещё Один День) – Filatov and Karas. (Vocalists Alida from Kazan, Sveta from Tver – left to right – Tartar & Russian respectively).
https://youtu.be/M6C5zRimQ7M
For Russian music and dance,
I think this is outstanding:
https://youtu.be/t4SgkpVcPEA
Definitely aimed at the male sex.
Terrific physical fitness.
Lest we forget that once upon a time we here in the United States were not all fags, trannies, multigender mutant weirdos, billionaire plutocrats etc. And Freeborn men and women.
Freeborn Man – Tony Rice (guitar) Bela Fleck (banjo) Sam Bush (mandolin).
https://youtu.be/rVl1ibykWZU
Freeborn Man by rights is the property of the immortal Jimmy Martin who you may know from “Sunny Side of the Mountain.” So this is included. He’s beyond belief.
Jimmy Martin – Freeborn Man
https://youtu.be/ETVlu5yqFHk
John Henry or John Hardy? I’d rather not play a favorite but if I had to ..
John Hardy (was a desperate little man) – Tony Rice and Bluegrass Allstars
https://youtu.be/4dZHULTQ0rQ
Nine Pound Hammer – Tony Rice & Bluegrass Allstars.
https://youtu.be/_u964a0f38s
Earl was against the Vietnam War, his immortal flat picking partner Lester Flatt wasn’t.
Earl Scruggs “Foggy Mountain Breakdown” with J.D. Crowe, Bill Emmerson, Sonny Osbourne etc.
https://youtu.be/af9wHDrkjfk
All good. But you forgot the great Bill Monroe & the Bluegrass Boys.
I like that deadpan expertise. No fuss. Just do it. And do it right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxgj95rKtoc
Well that American bluegrass is freaking beautiful and amazing isn’t it? Yes it sure is.
Here’s Sergei Zavyalov – Сергей Савьялов – who is supremely fantastic in my humble opinion. He’s a Russian person singing in the Russian language.
Such a Love I Don’t Want – Так Люьить Не Хочу
https://youtu.be/m792UfP6AGY
(A wedding. A beautiful young bride and groom on the dance floor).
A powerful song about a man being released from prison after many years for attempting to strangle his wife or sweetheart, with serious repentance. Think Johnny Cash maybe.
Вот Она Вот Она (Vot Ona Vot Ona – Here She Is, Here She Is) – Sergei Zavyalov.
https://youtu.be/333i851t0S4
The “She” of the title is I think (I could be way off) his fist which is described in the phrase – “Here she is, here she is, a fist wrapped in a bloody towel,” but it’s very difficult to translate for an amateur beginner in Russian such as me. Think “John Hardy was a desperate little man, he carried two guns everyday, he shot a man on the West Virginia line and you ought to seen John Hardy getting away ..”. But it’s very different. John Hardy is hanged. The man who is the subject of “Vot Ona, Vot Ona” is deeply repentant and in the closing verses he acknowledges that he once lived his life with borderline black and white judgements, but understands now how wrong that was and no longer does.” It’s a really great song.
There is video that proves Trump wasn’t talking about neo-nazis and white supremacists when he said there were fine people on both sides: those who wanted to keep the statue and those who wanted to tear it down. It was in the same presser and not two days later. Proof is not hard to find.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOkrxuZRUnk
A fun fact
https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/china/national-day-golden-week-7