“Ukraine update: Evacuation of Kherson underway as Russia prepares to lose a regional capital” – TTG

Kherson area on the brink of change.  Attribution: Daily Kos

Over the last three days, what started as a trickle of Telegram statements hinting at Russian units being reassigned out of the Kherson area has turned into a flood of evacuation orders instructing people to leave the city immediately. On Wednesday morning, Russian soldiers, local officials, and civilians were all visible along the west bank of the wide Dnipro River, waiting for barges and ferries that will take them away to the east.

Some Russian spokesmen, like Kirill Stremousov, who serves as the head of Russia’s occupation government in Kherson, are stating that “the battle of Kherson is about to begin.” Others, like the commander of the Russian army group “South,” Gen. Sergei Surovikin, seemed to be sending every possible signal that Russia is preparing to withdraw from the entire area. Overnight, Vladimir Putin formally declared martial law in all four of the oblasts now claimed by Russia. Something is definitely changing.

Of course, Ukraine has done much to grease the skids to this moment. By damaging first the AntonivskyiBridgeat Kherson, then the Kakhovka Dam Bridge at Nova Kakhovka, and finally the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea Oblast, Ukraine systematically increased the difficulty of keeping Russian forces west of the Dnipro River supplied and maintained. Ukraine then began a counteroffensive that meant Russian forces sitting and hoarding their limited supplies was out of the question.

For the past two weeks, it’s largely seemed as if that counteroffensive was frozen in place. Even when there have been reports of Russian forces pulling back from a location, Ukraine seems to have not risked sizable forces in attempting to gain additional ground. But if each day along that line was forcing Russia to expend ammunition and equipment it couldn’t easily replace, then the strategy was brilliant. Every day has brought Russia closer to either retreating before the bullets run out, or surrendering in place when they do.


Comment: This is from the blatantly liberal, but remarkably accurate, Daily Kos. It’s a damned good read. And it tracks with the AP article that Colonel Lang just showed us.

While the Ukrainians are maintaining good operational security by keeping their lips zipped, the Russians are saying everything and anything. I doubt they are clear in their own minds on what they are going to do or what’s going to happen to them. I also doubt the maps of battle lines are an accurate representation of the actual situation. I do think we’ll all soon be surprised when whatever does happens finally happens on this front. As my old mentor and good friend, Al Rivers, would have said, “The shit’s on, good buddy.”


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11 Responses to “Ukraine update: Evacuation of Kherson underway as Russia prepares to lose a regional capital” – TTG

  1. Marc says:

    The Russian POV is that they asked people to leave because the Ukrainians are going to blow up a dam and subsequent flooding (just sayin).

    In the meantime, I’m wondering if anyone has some news about these NS 1/2 attacks?

    • KjHeart says:

      I am wondering about flooding of the lower Dnieper as well – was looking at the river engineering sites – water will go where water wants to go once the human engineering is weakened


    • Mark Logan says:


      The dam about to be blown by the Ukrainians story seems BS intended to get the civis to leave.

      The other story I heard was the Russians want to billet their soldiers within Kherson and want lots of empty houses to do that in. I imagine the Russians view the city as the only place the Ukrainians might be reluctant to hit hard. Kherson as winter quarters and/or Alamo?

  2. cobo says:

    Russia seems to be using civilians to shield either additional deployment of forces and material to Kherson or to shield their remaining forces from Ukrainian fires. The Ukrainians seem to be allowing this, and they know what they’re doing. Is this where Russia might strike with a tactical nuke – who knows.

  3. SRW says:

    Interesting article in Foreign Affairs: The Sources of Russian Misconduct
    A Diplomat Defects From the Kremlin

    BORIS BONDAREV worked as a diplomat in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2002 to 2022, most recently as a counsellor at the Russian Mission to the United Nations Office in Geneva. He resigned in May to protest the invasion of Ukraine.


  4. Pat Lang says:

    The Ukrainians should mass fires to destroy the Wagner group AND THEN take Kherson. They should ignore the IO BS including on Turcopolier.

    • borko says:


      I’ll ask what is probably a stupid question but Why in that order ?
      Wagnerites are mostly active in the Bakhmut area, where they are attacking against well entrenched forces and the advance is glacial.

      If Ukraine is serious about Kherson why waste time and limited resources to hit the Wagnerites 1st ?
      Assuming the situation in the Kherson area becomes dire for the Russians, the Wagnerites will probably be sent there anyway.

      • Pat Lang says:

        Well. the correct tactics are the opinion of the senior officer present. In this case that would be me. IMO the commitment of the Waagnerites to decisive action positions them as massed targets. It is an opportunity to eliminate them as a coherent force.

  5. John Merryman. says:

    What a few tens of thousands of people are doing north of the Black Sea will prove irrelevant, as German industry shuts down and England is in economic and political freefall. The Swedes are saying the Nord Stream investigation is a state secret because they have no plausible way to blame the Russians for blowing up their own pipeline.
    Soviet Russia had its reality check thirty years ago and now NATO and the EU are heading the same direction. It is not a stretch to say that sometime over the course of this winter, any vision of a United Europe is going to go up like the Hindenburg and a lot of strategically challenged armchair generals are going to be left scratching their heads, as the middle third of Ukraine crawls back to Russia, while a fair number of well armed Ukrainian gangs wander the political ruins of Europe.

    • d74 says:

      I agree with your pessimistic views. This 8-year war is one thing, the aftermath is what concerns me. It is likely to be terrible.

      Ukraine is now an endless source of uncontrolled weapons. The mafias and the black market will take care of supplying them to the criminogenic districts everywhere in our countries.

  6. Mike G says:

    The river will be an ideal defensive line behind which the Russains can cower and blast away with artillery while the Ukrainians will find it a difficult barrier to cross. The Russians can concentrate their forces further to the North East and hope to pressurise the Ukrainians. Combine that with a combined Russo-Belarus attack on Kiev and Kharkive in the north. That surely is the logic. Where it may hoepfully fail is Russian incompetence.

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