Why Xiangshan Forum could be ‘useful opportunity’ for US-China military ties

The last in-person Xiangshan Forum was held in Beijing in 2019 before being cancelled or held virtually. This year’s forum may host high-level talks between the PLA and the Pentagon, analysts say. Photo: Xinhua
  • Senior defence officials, including from the Pentagon, will attend the three-day security conference in the Chinese capital
  • Beijing and Washington are set to restart military talks, but their geopolitical rivalry will likely be a focus at the gathering

Beijing is expected to restart military communication with Washington when it hosts a security forum from Sunday, but analysts say issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea will make it challenging. The three-day Xiangshan Forum – seen as Beijing’s answer to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore – has not been held in person for four years because of the Covid-19 pandemic. China’s defence ministry on Thursday said it was expecting bigger numbers at the forum, and more senior officials, than in previous years. “In particular, there is a big increase in representation from developing countries and international and regional organisations,” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a ministry spokesman. “We hope to see broader and more in-depth discussions … and a greater intelligent contribution to world peace and stability.”

The Pentagon has confirmed it will send a delegation led by Xanthi Carras, principal director in the office of the deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, Taiwan and Mongolia. Carras is not as senior as the defence officials the US has previously sent to the forum but it is the first Pentagon delegation to travel to China since 2019.


Comment: I find it interesting that the idea of the beginning of renewed Washington-Beijing military contacts is what leads in this South China Morning Post article. This comes after China has sacked its defense chief General Li Shangfu with no explanation. Perhaps the CCP sees the world going to hell in a hand basket and decided it’s a poor time for there to be no avenue for dialog between Beijing and Washington. Between the Middle East on fire and the war in Ukraine, the state of China’s Belt and Road Initiative is teetering on the rim of the crapper. In spite of the old Chinese saying, I doubt Beijing sees a lot of opportunity in this chaos. As the SCMP article points out, both China and the US have an interest in seeking stability in the Middle East and may find common ground in seeking to deescalate tensions.


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47 Responses to Why Xiangshan Forum could be ‘useful opportunity’ for US-China military ties

  1. mcohen says:

    Interesting point.China might bring some balance to the middle east.In the meantime rebuilding gaza,paid for by the uae beckons.Qatar blew it.
    One thing I know for sure that the bunker busters could cause a knock on effect and cause the rift to shift.Earthquake in a war zone,everyone’s nightmare

    What would be the best way to relocate a pyramid.Dismantle it block by block.

    • babelthuap says:

      If everyone focused on protecting their own borders instead of worrying about everyone else’s the world would be a lot safer. Let them duke it out. Eventually they will come to the same outcome; war is stupid and nobody wants anything to do with it after a while. Stop drawing fake borders. Israel is a Muslim land. Jews will eventually have to accept reality. They lost the 3 way competition for the leading role a long time ago. The US knows this fact and will not be able to keep this up forever of awarding them the leading part. They don’t have the audience to support it.

      • F&L says:

        Speaking of borders – see story below. This could be CYA or something much more interesting such as “no way were in on a false flag Oct 7.”
        Meanwhile , the CIA is retroactively shifting responsibility for the response to Hamas attacks to Israel itself . They say that the United States outsourced the task of monitoring Gaza to the Israelis, who themselves are to blame for missing the start of the war. And the FBI began to “warm up” the Americans in advance, preparing them for a wave of terrorist attacks within the United States in response to the war in Gaza.
        U.S. All but Stopped Spying on Hamas in Years After 9/11
        CIA outsourced intelligence gathering on Palestinian movement to Israel; ‘we should also share some blame’.

    • Fred says:

      China and Europe need MidEast oil. We don’t. There’s no reason our navy should be protecting everyone else’s oil supply, as well as a bunch of hostile oil states, at our expense and with little to show in return but more debt and more saber rattlers in D.C.

      • F&L says:

        Comfort thineself Fred. Senator Lindseed Oily Graham has assured the world, with a slight lisp on CNN, that there is no limit whatsoever to the number of children that Israel can kill. I guess no one told him the limit is probably less than 8 billion but no matter. We can refer to him henceforth as Senator LOG, or more elusively as Slog.
        🇺🇲🇮🇱🇵🇸 American Senator Lindsey Graham, in an interview with CNN, said that the US government has no limit on civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip.
        The TV presenter asked the senator whether he or the US government had a limit on civilian casualties at which they would say: “So, let’s take a break!”
        “ No. Of course not. It’s as if we were asked after World War II: shouldn’t you have taken a break while Japan and Germany were taking over the world? Should Israel take a break from the fight against those who are trying to exterminate the Jews? The answer is no. There is no limit,” Graham emphasized.

  2. F&L says:

    Lifted from Elena Panina’s Telegram channel today, translation pasted below dashed line. I guess I always couldn’t wait to get to the Van Gogh’s and Van Eyck’s when visiting the Metropolitan Museum of Art. A girlfriend might stop at the porcelain displays of masterpieces stolen from China. “Yes, very nice, very nice. Will we be having some tea with our Boone’s Farm later this evening, dear?” And then off to the paintings of the artist who cut off his ear.

    PLA General: War for reunification with Taiwan will be fair and legal.
    “Once the PRC government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, it will be a war for reunification, just and legal, supported by the Chinese people. It will be a war to disable foreign interference in China’s internal affairs,” said PLA Lieutenant General He Lei Wo during the 10th Xiangshan Security Forum in Beijing, which brought together security officials from 90 countries.
    ▪️ An important point: the statement directly refers to the justice and legality of the war for the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China, a war that will be supported by the Chinese people.
    Technically, the PLA annually conducts large-scale exercises in which it practices the operation to capture the island, not to mention other local training. However, colleagues from the TG channel “Case for Kurai” emphasize the convenience of the current moment for active action against the pro-American Taiwanese authorities – the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
    ▪️ Note that greater clarity on the scenario for the development of events will come on January 13, 2024, the day of the election of the Taiwanese “president”. The victory of the candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan, an active supporter of the complete sovereignty of the island, will make the military scenario for solving this problem no alternative .
    Then the only and most important issue will remain on the agenda – Beijing’s political decision to conduct a military operation. And there is still no 100% confidence that it will be accepted.
    PLA Lieutenant General He Lei said during the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which brought together security officials from 90 countries:
    “Once the Chinese government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, it will be a war of reunification, a just and legitimate war supported by the Chinese people and in which the Chinese people will participate, and a war to disable foreign interference in China’s internal affairs.”
    Now is the time for Beijing to take Taiwan under the guise of world problems. The United States will not be able to withstand the third point of instability.
    Moreover, Beijing now has so many allies around the world that any anti-Chinese resolution at the UN will never pass

    • Frankie P says:

      William Lai, the presidential candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, is currently polling at just under 40% support. That means at least 60% of the Taiwanese people would like to see a change from the current DPP administration. KMT chair Eric Ju just met with TPP chair and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je yesterday to reach a negotiated agreement on the fielding of candidates for legislative seats. When the agreement is reached on the president/vice president candidates, Ho You-yi (KMT) and Ko Wen=je (TPP), it will slowly become clear that it will be voters of Taiwan who will make the decision to deescalate the current situation. America will not be happy. The third non-DPP candidate, Terry Guo of Foxconn fame, will drop out of the race. He too has an agenda that promotes friendly relations with China. The people of Taiwan would like to see a middle road; Tsai and her administration have become poodles of the US, spouting US talking points about like-minded democracies like good parrots, but the people of Taiwan have been watching US actions and outcomes in Ukraine. They know that they are the next disposable containment tool in the US’s desire to remain the unipolar power and control the rise of a peer competitor. They don’t like it. Who would? They don’t want a return to the Ma Ying-jeou era of steering Taiwan towards China too quickly, but they also reject the “fortress Taiwan” agenda and the prospect of war.

      By the way, the Chinese are very unlikely to attack Taiwan. That would be the last of a long series of non-kinetic actions they could take to pressure Taiwan. Keep in mind that over 40% of Taiwan’s exports go to China. China could cripple the economy of Taiwan very easily. They choose not to do so. Those who focus on and make arguments about China’s ability or lack of to land enough forces on the island to take it are not living in the real world.

      A new administration would mean communication between Taiwan and China and the long road to finding some road forward. America would be pushed out of the picture. We’re 7,000 miles away from the USA. We should be pushed out of the picture.

  3. F&L says:

    The anti-Semitic disturbances yesterday are the predominant story on Russian Telegram last night and this morning. This article by Tatiana Stanovaya does is excellent if brief coverage.
    “Misunderstanding” in Makhachkala. Why the authorities do not react to pogroms in the Caucasus. By Tatiana Stanovaya.

    Both the Prigozhin rebellion and the anti-Semitic riots in the North Caucasus show how the Russian government, no matter how tough and stable it may seem, turns out to be timid and hesitant when any non-anti-Putin unrest arises
    Russian authorities behaved surprisingly passively when a crowd of angry residents of Dagestan stormed the Makhachkala airport to deal with what they believed were Jews who had arrived. The Russian Guard, famous for its harsh dispersal of rallies, arrived at the scene very late, when the rioters had already been walking around the airfield for several hours, and then behaved rather restrainedly. (More at link)

    • Frankie P says:

      Those disturbances were anti-Israeli, not antisemitic. There IS a difference.

      • F&L says:

        Sorry, you’re right. Now to finish editing my video of Bennie Netanyahu dressed as the little maimed Palestinian baby in the middle of the central row of videos in this link directly below. He’ll have his right leg torn off at the knee, diapers, and be bleeding profusely in a few other areas especially the mouth and one of his ears will be, well, I’ll let it be a surprise. I’m still debating inclusion of stars of David, yarmulkes etc, because golly I wouldn’t want to be accused of antisemitism, oh no. Once my editing techniques are up to standards I’ll use the remaining video samples to similarly feature some of our other political figures and celebrities. I encourage readers to offer their choices in the reply box!


  4. Lars says:

    I have been reading a report in Swedish media that some of Russia’s ethnic minorities are siding with Ukraine. It does not come as a surprise to me and it could create a lot of domestic problems for Putin, as he has to disperse his internal security forces. It could turn into a game of Whack A Mole.

    • James says:


      Did your Swedish media also inform you that lots of Ukrainians side with Russia? Or that lots of Americans are pro-Russia?

  5. F&L says:

    The thread topic provides an opportunity to revisit the campaigns of disparagement conducted by Peter Zeihan. Here, another economic vlogger takes a crack at it and concludes that Zeihanism isn’t so sturdy as it’s prophet makes it out to be. My personal take is that if the USA had any sense it would get down on its hands and knees and pray that China not collapse.

    Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan’s China Collapse Story.

    • James says:


      Zeihan drives me nuts. First of all – he “used to” work for Stratfor. Second of all, he has no formal education in economics. He has a BSc in Political Science and a “postgraduate diploma” in Asian Studies.

      Tom Orlik on the other hand has a Phd in Economics, is the Chief Economist at Bloomberg, and lived in China for over 10 years. He wrote a book that is somewhat ironically titled ‘China: The Bubble that Never Pops’ that sets out to explain why China’s coming economic collapse is taking so much longer than China’s naysayers have predicted. It’s a great book. And Orlik never worked for Stratfor. A good interview of him is here:

      • F&L says:

        Thanks. I’ll check it out. Zeihan in addition, purely as a human being, turns my stomach – he’s about as empathetic as a rattlesnake but remembers to smile and chuckle.

    • James says:

      And just to be clear – Orlik is, overall, pretty bullish about China.

  6. F&L says:

    Heroic. See if you can watch 15 seconds of the video. As you can probably see, these children posed a severe threat to Israel, god, democracy and Joe Biden’s reelection!
    Children injured in the Israeli attack on the Jabaliya refugee camp are being operated on without anesthesia due to a lack of medicine.
    Well, they missed. Heroic Israeli soldiers with American fighter planes will have to return and bomb again – the little fetus seems to have survived! At least they got rid of mommy! Video – not for the squeamish.
    ❗️Doctor rescues fetus from a dead woman, following Israeli strike on Jabaliya, Gaza – minutes ago.
    What chance does that baby have?
    Good shot! Hundreds murdered in a Gazan refugee camp. Now I’m certain Israel couldn’t possibly have bombed a hospital. No way! Video.
    ◾ Another massacre against the Palestian civilians committed by Israeli warplanes in the Shati refugee camp in Gaza. 31.10.23

    • mcohen says:

      Joke is on me

      It was the Chinese who invented gunpowder.Little did i know that an Australian invented the lawn mower.
      Yet rather unexpectedly a south african invented the kreepy krauly pool cleaner.
      What do all these have in common ?
      Blow mow suck.

      Met this young lady at the pub,she was sitting next to me at the bar.
      So we got chatting and I asked what she does and so on.
      She started telling me that she is anti war,belongs to the women’s rights group,black lives matter,hates trump,hates the royals,hates most men,could be gay,wants to save the whales and on and on.You know the type.Wants to save the planet now.

      Then she fixes her beady eye on me and asks what do I stand for.
      Well actually I said,I belong to the environmental society to shave the bald beaver
      She looked at me seriously and said
      “Oh I knew you were a good person and cared about animals”
      I just nodded and ordered  us two beers.

      • F&L says:

        Ordered “us two beers.” Not two beers? Wouldn’t have sufficed?
        I ordered a beer. I ordered beer.

        mcohen – you really seriously need help. You are going to be needing biers, not beer. You can’t spell or tell a joke.

        • mcohen says:

          That’s because you are a woman and do not understand the meaning of “us” in this context.

          Let me illustrate.One I wrote.

          All the pretty girls
          Were dressed in black
          Wearing veils and pearls
          Daggers on the back

          They had bells
          Hanging from their ears
          A book of spells
          A tube of tears

          Bring it along
          In tight jeans
          Small discrete thong
          End equals the means

          I said say
          Would you like to dance
          Like the band play
          With a friendly glance

          She looked me up down
          Said 2 2 straight
          No way clown
          But i didn’t take the bait

          I smiled that 2 2 smile
          I keep in my top pocket
          Polished in the style
          Said ride my rocket

          To the moon and back
          See the man himself
          Guru in a shack
          Sitting on my shelf

          Well she looked up beaming
          That’s a new one
          Really deep deep meaning
          You got there hon

          I headed back
          The very next morning
          Guru in a shack
          That’s my call calling

  7. mcohen says:

    For those who find military tech interesting.


    Now compare this to flying to a rave party in hang gliders and shooting 260 people dead.



  8. TV says:

    The “woke” Pentagon now has a new mission.
    Joining the State Dept., selling out America.

    • TTG says:


      Just how does the “woke” military sell out America?

      • TV says:

        For starters, the chief of staff to Assistant Secretary for Special Ops. is an Iranian agent.
        Chinese infantry are being taught pronouns in English so that if fighting Americans, they will shout the prouns to confuse the Americans. That’s a joke, but illustrates the “woke ” Dept of “Defense. “

        • TTG says:


          Ariane Tabatabai, the chief of staff to ASD/SOLIC is very likely guilty of failing to register as a foreign agent. In that aspect, she’s much like Mike Flynn. That doesn’t make her woke.

          • TV says:

            How, in an adult world, does a foreign agent get a TS clearance?
            Because it’s not an adult world.
            It’s the swamp in all of its incompetent and corrupt glory.

          • TTG says:


            I don’t know how anybody with a record of working with a foreign power, economically or politically, like that gets a TS clearance. Of course, if you want someone with an in depth knowledge of an adversary or potential adversary, you have to look at these people.

  9. elkern says:

    “[R]enewed Washington-Beijing military contacts” is a Good Thing.

    IMO, China is reverting to its [very!] long-term historical norm as a “conservative” Power, preferring economic expansion but using military force to protect its borders. I don’t believe China wants a military confrontation with the USA; war would bring global chaos, and that’s bad for business.

    OTOH, political (and social) chaos in the USA makes it hard for other countries to trust us. Our two main political parties are locked into a Culture-War cage match, while the infrastructure built by FDR and Eisenhower slowly falls apart. Zillionaires fund both Parties, preventing any legislation that might threaten their wealth. Our Financial system promotes short-term profits while our country goes bankrupt. Our Foreign Policy “NeoConsensus” (*) – enforced by Zillionaires’ campaign donations and Media control – is consistently belligerent, depending entirely on destructive mechanisms (bombs, sanctions) to enforce our “solutions” to international problems.

    Wall Street funded China’s Industrial Revolution, through direct investment AND by renting US politicians (from both parties) who made it possible. They “maximized shareholder value” by outsourcing the industrial heart of the US economy, leaving Americans chasing gig jobs and internet fame. Economic stagnation leads to anger; US politicians are glad to focus that resentment on China, because it’s easier than fixing our own problems AND because it reinforces the NeoCon militarist framework.

    China is certainly aware of this phenomenon, and they undoubtedly fear the potential consequences (WWIII). With US Diplomatic Corps rendered irrelevant by the NeoCons, direct contact between the PLA and the Pentagon is now (sadly) a crucial barrier between us and the disastrous consequences of a stupid war with China.

    (*) ooh, am I the first to invent the term “NeoConsensus”??? If so, I hereby authorize eternal free use of the term!

    • F&L says:

      Fantastic essay. And “Neoconsensus” is beautiful. “CEO-Nonsensus” is my free paired offering but it’s derivative.
      Now to try to figure out what Joe Biden is going to be doing when he meets Xi soon as reported. He’ll need a plan A for the eventuality that he doesn’t nuke Iran with the Israelis in the near to mid future and a Plan B for how China gets the oil it needs if Iran is destroyed/decommissioned. The Hunter jokes can wait for now.

    • F&L says:

      Referencing chaos & this thread’s topic -China vis a vis US- here’s someone’s take on it from a Ru Telegram channel.
      Chairman of the OS at Rosleskhoz Vladimir Morozov, specially for the Rasputitsa channel
      Russia was drawn into a military conflict with neighboring territory. China is on the brink.
      Another point of tension is emerging, ready to become part of the global controlled chaos according to Schwab. All major states that do not want to consistently follow the World Government’s plan for the transition to a new world order or inclusive capitalism must be involved in long-term, resource-consuming military conflicts. Russia is already embroiled in the NEA in Ukraine, with potential additional pockets in the Caucasus, Poland/Tribaltics, Moldova and Central Asia. Next in line is China, which will also not be asked much, but will create a situation in which any move by China will mean a military confrontation. The Anglo-Saxons ate the dog at this.
      The struggle for resources in the South China Sea has for many years made this area a potential arena of military confrontation due to the territorial claims of China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia on the Nansha (Spratly) and Xisha (Paracel Islands) archipelagos. All these countries claim their rights to these waters and to the above-mentioned two groups of islands located in them. China considers 90% of the territories under discussion (about 2 million sq. km) from Taiwan to Malaysia to be its integral part. The remaining applicants, citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Regulations on Free Navigation, do not recognize the claims of the PRC. Moreover, an international tribunal in The Hague 7 years ago (based on a claim from the Philippines) ruled that China’s “historical” claims to territory in the South China Sea have no legal basis.
      The Philippines, of all the countries opposing China, after Marcos Jr. came to power, was chosen by the United States for slaughter. Over the past year, conflicts between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea have increased significantly. And today we have reached a very dangerous point, when any provocation by Philippine Coast Guard ships may leave China with no choice but to launch its own air defense system. It is a matter of technique to stir up and involve Vietnam (there have already been clashes before), Malaysia and Taiwan into the conflict. China (according to Schwab’s plan), and most of the rapidly developing Asian economies, must urgently begin to divert resources to the war, and the United States, as usual, will make money on this, supplying China’s opponents with expensive military equipment and shells, and reducing the economic power of direct and potential competitors.
      So far, the creation of controlled chaos is in progress. There is a large hotbed in Europe, the Middle East is already in full swing with the potential to involve the Middle East, and another one, Asian, is being formed.
      Drawing into large military regional conflicts with the diversion of serious resources from China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Europe is so far going according to plan. It will be interesting to see what the countries that are targets of the World Government’s aggression will be able to oppose to these plans. To do this, they must have their own collective counterplan. Maybe it already exists within the BRICS framework? Moreover, its next summit with a new, expanded composition will be held in Russia.

  10. F&L says:

    Thousands of Homeless Migrants Housed at Chicago Police Stations.
    Interesting, when my apartment burned down I don’t remember any help at all from the government.

  11. Christian J Chuba says:

    The U.S. doesn’t want stability in the M.E. we want victory and total submission. If we cannot get that, we will settle for chaos. If we cannot win then burn down the house so that everyone else loses.

    • TTG says:

      Christian J Chuba,

      I doubt that very much. We want stability in the Mideast and elsewhere. Granted we want stability on our terms, but we’ll settle for stability over chaos.

      • Christian J Chuba says:

        ‘We want stability on our terms’ – agreed.
        ‘we’ll settle for stability over chaos’ – disagree

        When our plan for Syria failed. We chose to partition Syria rather then let Assad, Russia and Iran win. We gave Syria’s meager oil reserves to the Kurds and prevented prevent reconstruction. It’s ‘stability’ only because Syria is too weak to oppose us. The moment they try to oppose us we will blame it on someone else.

        So yes, we will ‘settle for stability’ until we do not get our way.

      • James says:


        I think we want chaos in certain specific countries (Libya, Syria) but just in a small number of specific countries.

  12. drifter says:

    Based on what I’ve read, US participation boosted the status of this forum and diminished the US. A shift of status from the US to China.

  13. F&L says:

    Will Israel be “cancelled”?
    Main thing to think about says these people below and others is not so much Iran and or Hezbollah but Egypt due to the huge pressure put on it behind the scenes to either accept 2.2 million Gazans who the Israelis and rapture-crazy American ultra-right are expelling by force and killing if they don’t simply eventually break out to the south despite everything simply because you’re dead otherwise. As you likely know already this is no mystery or conspiracy theory, because documents of recent vintage on expulsion have been aired in the American press, not to mention the old Jabotinsky plans from way back and the 1948 expulsions which are not discussed in the US till recently but were rather replaced with heroic stories which are precisely myth formation.
    A political and diplomatic campaign to “abolish” Israel has begun around the world. Interestingly, the countries of South America set an example.
    ▪️ Bolivia was the first. On October 31, the government of this country announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv in connection with “the commission of crimes against humanity” in the Gaza Strip.
    A few hours later, Chile and Colombia announced the recall of their ambassadors from Israel “for consultations.”
    According to Chilean President Gabriel Borich, “Israel violated international humanitarian law in Gaza.” And Colombian President Gustavo Petro emphasized: “I have decided to return our ambassador to Israel to his homeland. If Israel does not stop the massacre of the Palestinian people, we will no longer be able to be there.”
    According to the Israeli Foreign Ministry as of February 2023, this state had diplomatic relations with 166 of the 193 UN member countries.
    ▪️ It is obvious that the international community cannot turn a blind eye to Israeli war crimes in Palestine. And since they are approved by the United States , the attitude towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will become another dividing line between the collective West and the Global South. And this will make it difficult for Washington to impose its agenda on the non-Western world.
    Therefore, neither Israel nor the United States are interested in prolonging the conflict in the Gaza Strip. It would be optimal for them to complete the cleansing there within a few weeks – and not allow a stable anti-Israeli and anti-American front to form.
    ▪️ Accordingly, it can be predicted that the pressure on Egypt will increase exponentially, since this is the only place where, according to Tel Aviv and Washington, the Palestinian population can be driven out.
    For Cairo, this is a serious threat to internal stability and a test of strength. What will the Egyptian leadership choose : internal instability or worsening relations with Israel, even to the point of war?
    In the photo: Bolivian Ambassador to the UN Diego Pari Rodriguez announces the severance of his country’s relations with Israel.
    Translation of link below.
    With the outbreak of Israel’s war against Hamas, it seemed that the main line of “shadow” confrontation would be between the Jewish state and Iran . Although Hamas has never been an Iranian client, but rather focused on Turkey and Qatar. However, Iranian assistance was provided to him and, moreover, in the current confrontation , Tehran can greatly help the Hamasites by opening a northern front in the south of Lebanon .
    However, judging by recent events, the Iranian-Israeli confrontation is gradually fading into the background . And in first place may well be a confrontation between Israel and Egypt , which is desperately resisting Tel Aviv’s plans to finally resolve the Palestinian issue by squeezing the residents of the Gaza Strip into the Sinai Peninsula.
    Israel and the United States are jointly trying to persuade Cairo to accept two million Palestinian refugees, while offering the carrot of debt relief . Soon there will be severe political pressure. But this is the case when Cairo is pressed against the wall and the choice before its political leadership will be very simple: a serious internal political crisis (up to and including regime change) or armed intervention in the Gaza Strip (with the prospect of conflict with Israel).
    For Egypt, this is a choice between bad and very bad. And a war with Israel, with broad Arab and Iranian support (and the sympathy of the entire Muslim world) , may seem to Cairo a better choice than the second episode of the Arab Spring . Therefore, if events develop in the current manner, we have a chance to see a classic confrontation for the Arab-Israeli conflict: Egypt versus Israel . And Iran will fade into the background, it’s more familiar to it.

  14. F&L says:

    China speaks publicly on the middle east conflict. Two posts, translated & pasted below.
    Zhou Bo, senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Xinghua University, for the South China Morning Post: Russia has significant influence in the Middle East, but given that it is fighting its own conflict and Iran is considered one of its arms suppliers, it has little hopes of winning Israel’s trust. The EU is deeply polarized and powerless in the face of pro-Palestinian protests by Muslims across the continent and beyond. The United States, being a loyal ally of Israel, has historically provided it with unconditional support in all conflicts. That leaves China.
    ▪️After the historic rapprochement of the once-warring Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing tried to initiate peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians even before the start of the latest conflict. Chinese support for the Palestinian issue dates back to the days of Mao Zedong. At the same time, China has been developing strong economic ties with Israel since the 1980s. Tel Aviv expressed disappointment that Beijing did not directly condemn Hamas. However, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, Beijing considers itself a friend of both Israel and Palestine. Since the latest outbreak of violence, Beijing has made phone calls, provided humanitarian aid and sent an envoy to the region.
    ▪️But the best thing China can do is help prevent a regional fire. If China can use its influence over Iran, Hezbollah’s longtime supporter, to keep it from opening a second front, that will be extremely helpful. Hezbollah poses a greater threat to Israel than Hamas, with a huge missile arsenal and thousands of experienced fighters. Another area where China could contribute is in peacekeeping. Israel is unlikely to be able to destroy Hamas militarily, and an Israeli occupation would certainly backfire. This means that one day there may be a need for peacekeeping. #Китай #Израиль #мнение
    Zhou Bo, senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Xinghua University, for the South China Morning Post: Israel has in the past rejected Palestinian calls to send peacekeepers to the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank, but it may have to reconsider that decision. The first UN peacekeeping mission was created to monitor the implementation of the armistice agreement during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Today, peacekeepers are mandated to do much more than simply monitor ceasefires.
    ▪️Beijing and Washington should also jointly seek a way out of the Iranian nuclear impasse. A war in Gaza would deepen Iran’s security concerns and could force it to become more determined to develop nuclear weapons. In this matter, China’s main advantage is Tehran’s trust. China was the only major power to provide Iran with economic support under US sanctions. China must make it clear to Iran that even if it has the right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy, it should not build nuclear bombs under this guise.
    ▪️Despite its strong relationship with Russia, China, for example, has also made it clear that it will not tolerate the use of nuclear weapons. Thus, Beijing must tell Tehran that even if Iran succeeds in building a nuclear bomb, it will not improve its security. On the contrary, Iran could suffer from a preemptive military strike by Israel or Israel and the United States. This will undoubtedly entail tough UN sanctions, which China will be forced to comply with.
    ▪️A nuclear-armed Iran could set off a chain reaction of other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey building nuclear weapons. Like nuclear North Korea, Iran will never become a “normal country.” In a region where the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, China’s traditional neutrality makes sense. But China is also the only major power that is friendly with regional players. This is a huge plus. Beijing must make the most of it to make the Middle East safer. #Китай #Израиль #мнение

  15. Morongobill says:

    Nice move if they can keep it up.

    The neocons that run Washington have had a raging hardon for China for ages.
    While that may have subsided briefly my best guess is it will shortly be hard as Chinese arithmetic again and their desire to take out China will raise its ugly head once more.

    • TTG says:


      Those neocons in Washington don’t seen to have any desire to engage in a shooting war with China or anybody else. We won’t attack Iran and won’t support an Israeli attack on Iran. We are reticent in supplying weapons to Ukraine and warn them not to use our weapons to attack Russian territory. Do you really think those neocons want to take on China militarily? One of the last hopes in the world is the reticence of those in both Beijing and Washington to engage in a full scale war in Asia or the Mideast. Neither seem too tickled with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, either.

      • F&L says:

        As you know the neocons are strategic geniuses. Kim of North Korea just told his people to do everything to help Palestine and he doesn’t recognize Israel. He has nukes. Israel, precious to neocons, is the size of New Jersey. Maybe if you locked them up in zoo cages for six weeks next to a screen playing a video of a hydrogen bomb on a boat exploding in a port city where people dine on humus and olives – maybe one of the tamer ones would figure it out, but don’t bet too much on it. You could add educational enhancements such as posters which describe the sanction policy on N Korea as having neocon origin, but don’t gamble anything of value – they are what Machievelli described to the Prince as Oppressors. And even if you give them palaces, jewels, harems and fancy titles they will in not too long a time period return to doing what they do – oppress. You might as well lay rotting animal corpses next to adult vultures and scream and wave your hands at them that the free range raised chicken at the supermarket down the street is better for their health. They will join the flies and hyenas anyway.

      • F&L says:

        PS – TTG. 2nd mention I’ve seen tdy of US troops fighting in Gaza. Other was on a Telegram military survey channel which said two members of the 101 airborne had been wounded but it gave no sources.
        There are growing indications, as yet unverified, that US troops are actively involved in the fighting in Gaza.
        Salman al-Harfi, Palestine’s former ambassador to France, told Sputnik News on Monday that US military personnel said US troops were directly involved in the ground operation against Gaza.
        “They not only support [Israel], but are also participating in the war against the Palestinian people,” al-Harfi told Sputnik. “The United States is sending military personnel to the area. They are involved in military operations on the ground in Gaza.”

        • mcohen says:

          There are American hostages in Gaza that need rescuing.From the evil guys.Who were allowed to set up shop in Gaza,so they could take hostages who needed rescuing.
          Why was Gaza created in the first place and who was responsible.
          What’s it all about.

          The fact is if Israel was such a fantastic idea then how come Jews like myself never moved there.
          There are millions of Jews in the diaspora but we have never moved there.
          Great place for a holiday.The myth is sweet,too.
          In my mind,clear cut,no doubt,you cannot eat stones,you can only roll them.
          Called a law of nature.
          If Christians want to revive their faith atop one tree hill then they are welcome in Gaza.Better bring their stones with them.

  16. leith says:

    Gaza Strip appears now to be two strips cut in half by an IDF thrust to the sea at one of its narrower widths. Looks like they are trying to isolate Gaza City from the rest of the strip:


    If true they appear to be less than a thousand yards from the beach. Map was about four hours old when posted so they may already be feet wet.

  17. mcohen says:

    Obviously there are stones to be rolled but wet feet is good.Then it is time for siesta.

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