I apologise that my previous post was incomplete in that I had made no suggestions of how we get out of this mess that is Ukraine and Israel and a post without a suggested action is nothing but a pointless rant. My excuse – I am currently operating with only one good eye after surgery.
Putin and Lavrov are going to have to be wooed back to the negotiating table. They no longer trust the collective West so some “circuit breaker’ must be found and a staged approach over years is going to be necessary to rebuild trust.
How we rebuild trust from our side I do not know. I note in passing that there are two American astronauts marooned on the ISS.Russia may have the means of rescue.. There may possibly be mutual stand downs of forces and a treaty needs to be negotiated about Ukrainian neutrality and a non threatening way of providing the Baltic States with security that doesn’t set Putins hair on fire.
What does the committee think? I seek constructive comments. Denial and blame games are not appropriate just now. What is more important is reversing our declining reputation and attractiveness to slow the stampede of nations to BRICS and the SCO.
All it would take is for Russia and Israel to take action that improves the situation. As in withdrawing from attacking Gaza and Ukraine. To suggest the other side has to give in to them will only be a stopgap solution. Of course, to suggest that there is a similar situation in both areas is not quite correct. Israel had a good excuse to go into Gaza, but they have overdone it and are getting some serious blow back. Russia did not have to invade Ukraine and their stated reason does not hold up well. NATO is a defensive organization and that should be obvious. Russia is going to pay for this mistake for generations and they have only themselves to blame. All the West needs to do is to resist their imperial aims, as they should in order to stop further and similar actions. It would help if the blame is put where it belongs.
Lars, I beg to differ with your view regarding Ukraine. I hope you recall Minsk agreements where Russian speakers were supposed to be given autonomy to run their own affairs. As for your SUPPOSEDLY “NATO is a defensive organization” do you know how many leaders of the so called NATO were calling for dismemberment of Russia (Shadows of Yugoslavia?) I think Hubris got the best of the western leaders and they failed to see the so called Jungle has caught up to them (not totally but some what) technologically as well as materially. I am at a loss to understand what you mean by “All the West needs to do is to resist their imperial aims, as they should in order to stop further and similar actions.” West is by nature a predatory animal, in its history never worked to develop their resources than to steal from the rest of the world. Such a society is doomed to fail. Thanks
Lars,
Yes, of course. What does Hamas have to do, besides give up all their remaining hostages?
We did not need to invade Iraq. How is the hunt for WMD going?
NATO didn’t need to attack Libya. How did that work out, other than slave markets returning? NATO didn’t need to bomb Serbia. How did that work out?
Will NATO nations pay for generations? Do they only have themselves to blame?
For the imbeciles and psychos running the world Gaza and Ukraine are successful TV shows getting consistently high ratings. If you brought this up to them in a corporate board room setting they’d probably think for 25 seconds until someone volunteered that “Breaking Bad ran for 5 seasons and you want to end this NOW?” Then they’d run off to see how Bill Gates is doing with his plans to reduce cow farts. Then Fareed Zakaria asks Christine Amanpour something too rude to repeat. And that’s the evening report from Mount Olympus.
Sorry Walrus. A solution? Think Mt Ararat.
F&L,
Yes. Think Mount Ararat. Sacred to Armenians. Where Noah’s ark landed at the end of the flood. Now in the hands of filthy mulsim genociders and occupiers. Sikteer Turkiye. And there it remains because, as Hitler noted, no one remembers the Armenians, though the “starving Armenian” were quite the cause celebre in social media, such that it was, circa 1916 – 1922.
Ancient and innocent people get massacred and their land stolen all the time. No one cares in the long run, accept those with skin (or blood) in the game. How much more so with phoney victim murdering muslim brotherhood a-holes like hamas and the palestinians? The sooner they’re gone, the sooner they’re forgotten. Yes, think Mt Ararat. God speed Israel.
You didn’t get it Eric. I meant the only remedy for the present mess would be a universal flood. You might want to check your BP and see whether or not your meds aren’t cross-interacting. Do you realize the impression you’re making?
Walrus,
I’m a big fan of Paul Kennedy’s book ‘The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers’. A key thesis of the book is that empires fall because of imperial overreach, in which an empire extends itself beyond its military-economic capabilities and often collapses as a result.
I think that the US should resign itself to a multipolar world and seek to become “a first among equals”. Resign the ABM treaty, give Russia a promise of “no NATO in Ukraine” and genuinely recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. It’s not too late for the US to regain its heart-and-minds leadership in the world. Unfortunately, as Kennedy’s book details all too well, it’s very difficult for empires to readjust to an imperial footprint that they can actually sustain in the long run.
Thank you Walrus for your post. Sir you raise a very good point about “They no longer trust the collective West so some “circuit breaker’ must be found and a staged approach over years is going to be necessary to rebuild trust.” After so many broken promises starting with “not an inch advance of NATO in 1997″ to reneging on the arms control treaties by Bush Jr, to Trump regarding intermediate nuclear weapons treaties and then idiotic claims by Merkel and Hollande regarding the Minsk agreements, it is nearly impossible to build trust unless the collective West just disbands the NATO. This also is a near impossibility. Unfortunately the defeat of Ukraine on the battle front as well as unraveling of the EU due to idiotic New Grand Green Deal, will slowly but surely lead to dismantling of NATO. The pity is the whole world is witnessing this charade in real time. Like you said in your previous post Pago said ” We met the enemy and it is us”. So sad but true. Thanks
Walrus,
The west won’t change without a change in leadership at the top and across the board. The EU is in significant danger of breaking up. The leaders in France and Germany are doing their best to disregard and disempower their own citizens. The UK is going even further. Now Brazil is getting into the same game by going after Musk, and by extension everyone on X not toeing the left’s line.
Walrus –
I hope your eye surgery turned out well and your recuperation goes well.
Maybe in addition to asking the question you posed above “How we rebuild trust from our side?” another question would be:
How does Russia rebuild trust with the West and the world?
Russia won’t “rebuild” good relations with the West, Leith.
This is not like the Israeli ethnic cleansing we’re watching at the moment. In that case most of us in the West know that our politicians are backing evil and I think most of us don’t go along with our politicians doing that. Most of the young, anyway.
In the Russian case, our politicians are backing evil but most of us approve. We’ll cling eagerly to any story we’re given and cry for more. The more the politicians screw up our various countries, the more necessary it is that we howl at the Russians and not at them. So we’ll continue to howl dutifully – a lot of howling even here, I see – and we’ll continue to soak up whatever lies the politicians and the press choose to feed us. Not all of us. But more than enough of us to determine our future path.
The lies we love. So many of them. We most of us insist that our proxy regime in Ukraine is a normal democratic country. Neo-Nazis in Ukraine? What Neo-Nazis? Only “Putin trolls” see the swastikas. They were hastily airbrushed away by the media in ’22 and if you see them now you’re likely to get “visited”.
Remnant Ukraine is littered with proud memorials to those who assisted in the Holocaust; but not the “Ukraine” we’re using as our proxy. Kuleba can tell the Poles to their faces that there was no Volyn massacre, or Melnyk can tell the Germans to their faces that theirs was a worthy cause when they slaughtered the Untermenschen shoulder to shoulder with the OUN-B; but in West World, our world, if all that’s not swept under the carpet as soon as said you are no true Westerner.
And in West World we can with ease believe opposing stories simultaneously. The Russians are vicious and all-powerful, scarily so, and we must strain every nerve to hold them at bay. They’ll take Europe if we don’t look out! Simultaneously, they’re a third rate power with an army so demoralised and dysfunctional they’ll flee in panic if they see an Abrams anywhere near them. In West World we can believe both propositions simultaneously and do so eagerly. Any story will do that feeds our hatred and suspicion. Just keep feeding the stories to us and we’ll tell them to each other for ever.
And there’s the problem, Leith. The lies we’ve had poured over us since 2014 don’t work on the Indians or the Chinese. They leave even the Turks cold. The Africans can only laugh at them. But they work on us. We suck them in eagerly and cry for more. If you think the Western countries are going to do a 180 and return to reality, think again. We are trapped in the lies and hatred of West World and we’ll stay trapped. It’s what we now are.
……………………………
“Walrus” above asks what the solution is. Tough, but there isn’t one.
You Americans will likely shrug and move on. It’s what you do as each forever war is lost.
We Europeans? Unlikely. This bitter rancid little continent will head eagerly for Cold War II and will remain trapped in it. Unfortunately my own country, that looked at one time as if it might escape, bids fair to remain trapped with it. Pity. We English used to be better than that. Or was that illusion too?
As for the Russians, they’ll do what the world outside West World does. Take one pitying look at what Europe has become and, if they have a ha’porth of sense, give it a wide berth and attend to their own affairs.
“How does Russia rebuild trust with the West and the world?”
The traditional West is small, even with the huge Australian continent, and its population is rather small. The count is made: the USA and the 5 eyes, Japan and korea, the EU, plus a few scattered islands in the Pacific.
According to Lavrov, Russia no longer trusted the West’s word. It will not seek to re-establish ties. These ties have been severed for at least a generation. US-Russia negotiations are still possible on specific issues, on which Russia will be particularly watchful.
Russia’s future lies to the east and south. Globally, these countries are the world minus the West.
Walrus
They arrested igor kolomoisky in ukraine is September 2023 and a month later got hamas leadership to send the gazans into Israel on 07/10.
For gas LNG.
The” Israel project”….that’s funny hahahahahahah.imagine that,calling it a project
The rest is propaganda and bullshit.
Thats it.
Who is the blue conductor.
For a new beginning, reading of the comic Usagi Yojimbo by the US author of Japanese ancestry Stan Sakai, would be a nice start.
Jovan P,
That’s not bad advice. I’ve read quite a few of the Usagi Yojimbo comics, mainly for my love of rabbits and saber fencing. I’d also suggest “The Book of Five Rings” by Miyamoto Musashi and several similar books.
I am a fan of studio ghibli.Seen most of them but I will try usagi.Started collecting epic comics in the 70’s.Abraxas and the whale.
Grave of the fireflies my favourite.
I don’t understand the assertion that the world is anti-Israel. It seems more like a left-right thing. So, Milei & Modi are pro-Israel, Lula & the Congress Pary in India are anti-Israel. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pleased with the destruction of Iranian-funded Hamas (a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood which threatens those 3 regimes). A lot of Christian Africans who face threats from Muslims (as in Nigeria, South Sudan & Ethiopia) like Israel.
Anti-Israel activists on campuses in the US & Canada are mostly lefties.
Great book for background for an Australian.worth a read
Jack beaumont
Dark arena
The issue of trust is complicated since trust has never existed. Post Cold War there were grand pronouncements that international issues will be handled according to the international law, “rules-based order”, etc. This was shortly followed by waging illegal wars without UN authorization. Ever since Clinton administration, which invented “humanitarian intervention” while ignoring genocide in Rwanda, it has been one set of rules for US and its allies and another for everyone else.
It’s not even restricted to warfare, US is illegally (according to the international law) sanctioning wide range of countries and other entities, leveraging its central role in the financial system to punish countries. On the other hand, Saudis can chop people up in their embassies, blockade Qatar and invade Yemen, Turks can invade Syria and Iraq, and I won’t even get into Israel randomly bombing other countries to incite regional war. Not only there are no consequences for for any of this, but even a threat of ICC/ICJ indictments against Netanyahu drew threats against the court and the prosecutors.
The fig leaf of “rules” has been blown away and nobody in their right mind will make agreements with US/NATO/West, or if they do it will be with no expectation of compliance on either side. So we are back to Cold War rules, with a big difference that US is much weaker in every sense, political, economic and military. The center of gravity of the world economy has permanently shifted to Asia and US, while militarily safe due to isolation, is growing increasingly irrelevant. Ease with which Russia is able to evade Western sanctions is indicative of diminished economic importance of US and EU.
The way forward is simple. US and EU have to accept their diminished status and agree to abide by the international law. UN Security Council will be expanded to include India as a permanent member and remove UK and France, with a single EU permanent seat. No veto power, so no single country can block UN resolutions. India and China seem to be eager to promote international law-based order, so this is the most likely outcome, despite US/EU resistance.
Kennedy gave a famous speech at I believe American University, where he lays out in simple terms that peace out to be our goal, and that goal is laudable. When our aim is peace and not dominance, then our legitimate shared security concerns can be met and we can use the amazing advancements of mankind to preserve the quality of each other’s lives.
I do think it is in many ways that simple. We do not give peace a chance, is why there is no peace. You can break it down to specifics in these exact situations, but the reality is we have deliberately chosen and supported a repeated path of antagonism when there was a more peaceful path. But peace does not lead to domination, and so we go the other way. We have enabled Israeli domination of the Palestinians in earnest for the last 30 or so years since the assassination of Rabin and the failure of the Oslo Accords. We have antagonized Russia since the end of WW2 continuously, misled them after the collapse of the soviet union, fomented discord and revolution in Ukraine, and now, a decade after that, refuse to allow any peace negotiations with Russia to end the war. None of this is in the interests of the average Israeli, Palestinian, Russian, Ukranian, or American, yet this is what we do? Why? Because our governments don’t work for the long term interests of the average person, it really is again that simple.
Landis,
You assume that the world is controlled by the US and that, if some situation goes out of control, it is a reaction to a mismanagement by the US. I don’t even know where to start with the litany of false assumptions involved in your perspective.
My perspective – the world is full of irrational, short sighted, murderous barbarians. Always has been and always will be. The US is the best thing that has happened for humanity in human history. Sometimes its power has been misapplied or applied foolishly. Such is human nature. However, in comparison to the alternative, it’s a quantum leap ahead.
Peace only has a chance when a fair and compassionate overwhelming power rules. Peace is not a natural condition. It must be imposed.
Where in nature – to include human history – have you ever seen “peace”? Peace without ruthless strength is the dream of opiated sheep.
“Peace without ruthless strength is the dream of opiated sheep.”
In the nuclear age, Eric, ruthless strength without peace is a touch risky.
And where’s this terrific ruthless strength, anyway? The combined West of a billion people has taken on a country of 150 million tops – with what success?
When it comes to the military side we all of us together are a dead loss. No good chest beating and saying NATO’s the greatest military power the world has ever seen. A boutique army and a few bits and pieces from Europe does not a military superpower make. Time we stopped living in dreamworld on that score.
But our ace was our economic and financial strength. The Golden Billion was going to wipe the floor with the gas station with nukes. So what happened there? The sanctions war was our main weapon against Russia and it’s a bust. You know that.
Time we stopped this dreaming of “ruthless strength”. I get really fed up when I see our English politicians prating away like that and, no disrespect but yours are just as bad. The last man who thought in those terms shot himself in a bunker after wrecking a fair bit of the planet.
And his country and army was a lot closer to Flink wie Windhunde, zäh wie Leder und hart wie Kruppstahl than we could ever claim to be. We’ll be damned lucky to get out of the scrape we’ve got ourselves into with a whole skin, and never mind the chest-beating.