RYBAR – Ukrainian formations continue to surround Lyman, developing an offensive towards the territorial borders of the Luhansk People’s Republic. The Lyman garrison is fighting in an operational environment with superior enemy forces
On the outskirts of Lyman – The enemy tried to attack the city from three directions: from the side of Dibrov, the Brusino railway station and the Old Caravan. The garrison is holding out, all attacks are repulsed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are intensively shelling the Lyman with all available means of destruction, including the HIMARS.
North of Lyman – Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied Kolodezi, Zelenaya Dolina and cut the road Svatovo – Makeevka – Terny – Lyman. From the side of the village of Kolodezi, a platoon of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the support of armored vehicles, conducted reconnaissance in combat in the direction of Zarechny (Kirovsk). After a fire defeat by the artillery of the People’s Militia of the LPR, the Ukrainian formations were forced to retreat.
Through Zarechnoye – Torskoye passes the last road connecting the Lyman garrison with the territory controlled by the allied forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking villages from the north from the side of the village of Kolodezi and from the south – from the bridgehead on the banks of the Seversky Donets.
West of Lyman – UAF occupied Shandrigolovo and Novoselka. The western flank of Lyman’s defense in Drobyshevo is held by fighters from BARS-13 and the 20th combined-arms army of the RF Armed Forces.
At this stage, without the transfer of significant reinforcements and the concentration of attention of the command of the RF Armed Forces in the Lyman direction, there is a serious risk of the fall of Lyman and further collapse of the defensive orders of the RF Armed Forces on the western borders of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
STARSHE EDDY – Under Lyman the situation is extremely difficult. The enemy delivers the main attack near Yampil and Torskoye, with the goal of finally cutting the Kreminna-Lyman highway and encircling our troops. Attacks with large forces supported by artillery, HIMARS and armored vehicles. Tonight is going to be a very difficult night and tomorrow a very difficult day.
WARGONZO – Urgent – AFU broke through in the Stavkov area and cut off Drobyshevo. Emergency information is coming in from the field that the neo-nazis were able to break through to the Torsk-Drobyshevo highway in the Stavtov area, thus effectively cutting off Bars-13 (Russian Legion) from the main highway. There is a tough fight going on . Our heroes are cutting and doing everything to hold their positions and prevent the enemy from gaining a foothold. The situation is extremely difficult.
Comment: According to these Russian bloggers, we may soon see the long awaited Donbas cauldron. It just won’t resemble the fever dream that all the Putin cheerleaders have been crowing about for seven months. What a shame.
This would be a great present for Putin’s annexation celebrations.
It looks like Vladimir Solovyov is a bit sad things are not going as planned.
The world is all wrong he says…
“A man of God” in the video that admonishes those that do not want to go fight in Ukraine is a nice touch.
How many listeners does Solovyov have?
He hosts two shows on Rossiya-1 and often appears with RT’s Margareta Simonyan. There’s a parody video in the style of the “Downfall” parodies of Solovyov and Simonyan fretting over the state of the mobilization. Given his normally animated rantings, I first thought it was real until the subtitles had one announcer complaining about Solovyov’s “space cadet” outfits. Solovyov does dress funny.
ROFL, that sh*t is funny. They had me, until Margareta “argued” for pedophiles, musicians and art students to be sent to the meat grinder.
I have no problem with pedophiles being the ones to clear the minefields.
Good idea. Colonel would probably add dog abusers to help them out.
His space suit reminds me of Mike Myers as Dr. Evil.
There is video from this morning that shows Ukrainian troops in Yampil. Making that Rybar map out of date and a 360 envelopment one step closer.
What unit is defending Lyman? Russian BTGs? Wagnerites? LPR/DPR troops?
The largest unit appears to be the 20th CAA composed of two motorized rifle divisions. Two recently formed regional volunteer units, BARS-13 and BARS-16 are also in there. They are reportedly sub-battalion strength. I thought a good piece of the Luhansk 2nd Army Corps was also there.
If I’m reading it right Jomini site showed some 20th GCAA units withdrawing two weeks ago? And just now DailyKos is saying 500 to 3000 Russian troops there depending on source. He also says that they are trying a breakout to the east. If successful maybe they will head towards Kremnina?
TC got in a swipe at Ukraine on his show last night. I wonder how he would deal with a surrender of 20th CAA?
Alexei Navalny has an excellent opionion piece in The Washington Post with the title “This is what a post-Putin Russia should look like”.
To me he makes a lot of sense.
Alexei Navalny comparing Russian ethnic minorities to cockroaches that need to be exterminated:
I also found the mentioned op-ed interesting. It would be important for the Western allies to stress that the only way out is for Russia to become a parliament led republic, with the president as head of state and a prime minister in charge of the government. The biggest problem, in my opinion, is that has never happened in Russia and it would take quite some time to create the civil system that sustains such an effort. Maybe a lot of dead bodies will motivate enough?
That body count would also require most everyone in government over about age 60. Through its history, Russians have been ruled, not governed.
Michael hudson wrote an interesting book a few years ago, called Forgive Them Their Debt, on the conflict between government trying to hold countries together, primarily for defensive reasons, while the rich used their wealth to accumulate more wealth and effectively hollow the societies out. That’s why they introduced debt jubilees 3000 years ago.
The problem in the West is that having made government a public utility, it has given the banks and the wealthy the upper hand, effectively hollowing out government, with the main role of the flunkies left to fill the roles being to create all the debt the banks need to function. The secret sauce of capitalism is public debt backing private wealth.
Russia, being in a somewhat more primitive situation, doesn’t have the refined gloss over this dynamic, so basically it’s either oligarchs, or a strong central government.
Under all the politics, personalities and culture, it’s still biology and physics.
Isn’t that what Kerensky (sp?) was trying in the spring of ’17?
The contrast between the pomp and grandeur in the Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace today and the abject news on the battlefield is absolute. Things Stalin didn’t say: “How many referenda did he hold?”
That parody of Solovyov (my spellchecker wanted to write “Slovenly” btw) is v. funny.
… encirclement of Russian forces near Lyman, an occupied town in Ukraine’s northeast, is “at the final stage,” a military spokesperson said, as Ukrainian troops moved to surround the region from all fronts. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for eastern Ukrainian forces, made the remarks Friday, as a senior Russian-backed official acknowledged that Russian troops are “half encircled” in the strategic city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
“All the approaches and logistic routes of the enemy, through which they delivered ammunition and manpower, are in fact under fire control [of Ukraine],” said Cherevatyi.
Denis Pushilin, the Russian-installed governor in the Donetsk region, said Lyman is “partially surrounded. The Svatove road is under our control, but under fire periodically,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
Ukraine consistently taking out Russian installed officials:
Alexei Katerinichev, who served as the first deputy head for security of the Kremlin-appointed administration of the Kherson region, was killed on Friday, Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Moscow-controlled region, said.
“[Alexei] Katerinichev died as a result of a pinpoint strike from HIMARS. Two rockets hit the house in which he was,” Stremousov was cited by Russia’s state-run news agency Tass as saying.
On September 16, authorities said Ukraine struck government buildings in the occupied Kherson region at least five times using HIMARS, killing at least one person and wounding others.
Ekaterina Gubareva, the deputy head of the Russian-installed administration in Kherson, said that at the time of the strike, a meeting was underway between the heads of the city and municipal districts.
More recently, Alexei Zhuravko, former deputy of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, was killed in a HIMARS attack on a hotel in Kherson, Stremousov told Russia’s state-run news agency RIA Novosti.
TTG you my respect, but we can’t ignore how if this war continues like this we do so at the serious risk of nuclear war.
Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter, and col. MacDouglas are the ones I’m familiar with making the sort of incorrect assessments that Russia would prevail all this time, but if it is a fever dream that Russian forces would prevail in the Donbass, then doesn’t that increase the odds of a nuclear nightmare?
Big picture, they have maintained this view as well regarding the nukes and it’s an assessment that to me has always rung true, nor one you or the good colonel ignore. The threat and danger of a nuclear confrontation with Russia essentially means there is a limit to the objectives we can achieve against Russia in Ukraine.
I don’t wish to minimize how Russia has tried to amplify fear of a nuclear attack as a way to dissuade support for Ukraine, but there is a reality to this threat that can’t minimized forever.
I don’t agree with the view that Tucker Carlson and others are cheerleading Russia, not that they have done themselves any favors with how they present their case, but they are speaking, as I do and many here do too, from a perspective that has grown tired of a foreign policy that seeks to reshape the world into a liberal order that has less to do with Jefferson and more to do with Marx. I do think this foreign policy is as much to blame for the adversarial Russia we face today as is Putin.
I do not wish to see Ukraine (or any other state) become a vassal state to Russia, but their independence cannot come at the cost of the suicidal nationalism Bush Sr warned against either.
The good colonel has spoken of the culmination point, that Russia has likely past it. I think that is true, but what point is too far for risking nuclear confrontation?
I don’t know who blew up the pipeline, but if it was Russia, that signifies they have entered a scorch earth phase.
Also Putin has shown a willingness to escalate things in a way that has been both reckless and as it turns out, self-defeating. He doesn’t look well to me. I don’t doubt his willingness to suicidally use nukes.
Are we gauging correctly the risk Putin will be disobeyed within his chain of command? That he may be toppled from within? This is not something I think we can gauge with enough certainty. There are reports about how Russian soldiers are being commanded to kill civilians and it seems Russia has been doing this for some time. If true, as strongly appears to be the case, then what kind of order is the Russian chain of command not willing to follow?
We are getting close to a point where a nuclear attack of some kind (likely one directed at Ukrainian soldiers set to regain the Donbass) is a more “logical” step for Russia in their increasingly illogical war.
nah. TC is cheerleading for the Russians. His motivation is a mystery. pl
Motivation – wild guess – political office or cabinet position.
Given his talents as a TV presenter he might be formidable in either position. Wilder guess – his own network or media platform.
Sonny Barger (RIP), whom we now know TC admires immensely, made this statement,”Everybody’s a tough guy until you meet one.”
Why is it always about what Russia threatens…
Why is it always they should do what they want because threats…
When this all gets sorted out, there will be a hard look taken at the fifth column, operating here.
“Fifth column, operating here”
Tucker Carlson, Tulsi Gabbard, Glen Greenwald, Doug MacGregor?
YGBSM. Like you say, everybody’s a tough guy, especially on the internet.
Excuse me please if I Bar Gin, said Dorothy Mouse. Jumping Juniper said the Bargeman. Bar G man, did you whisper, or Gem, An? An is short for what, Edgar Allen? Don’t be shy. We have our sources.
capital of France, from Gallo-Latin Lutetia Parisorum (in Late Latin also Parisii), name of a fortified town of the Gaulish tribe of the Parisii, who had a capital there; literally “Parisian swamps” (see Lutetian).
The tribal name is of unknown origin, but it is traditionally derived from a Celtic par “boat” (perhaps related to Greek baris; see barge (n.)), hence the ship on the city’s coat of arms.
early 14c., “seagoing vessel of moderate size with sails,” from Old French barge “boat, ship,” Old Provençal barca, from Medieval Latin barga, perhaps from Celtic, or perhaps from Latin *barica, from Greek baris “Egyptian boat,” from Coptic bari “small boat.” From late 14c. as “river craft; barge used on state occasions; raft for ferrying;” meaning “flat-bottomed freight boat” dates from late 15c. In former times also “a magnificently adorned, elegant boat of state,” for royalty, magistrates, etc. (1580s).
archaic or humorous way to say “Parisian,” from the old Gallo-Roman name of the place, Lutetia Parisorum (see Paris), literally “Parisian swamps,” from Latin lutum “mud, dirt, clay” (see lutose).
“muddy, covered with clay,” from Latin lutosus, from lutum “mud, dirt, mire, clay,” from Proto-Italic *luto-, *lustro-, from PIE *l(h)u-to- “dirt,” *l(h)u-(s)tro- “dirty place,” from root *leu- “dirt; make dirty” (cognates: Greek lythron “gore, clotted blood,” lyma “dirty water; moral filth, disgrace,” lymax “rubbish, refuse,” lyme “maltreatment, damage;” Latin lues “filth;” Old Irish loth “mud, dirt;” Welsh lludedic “muddy, slimy; Albanian lum “slime, mud;” Lithuanian liūtynas “loam pit”).
Hence also English lute (n.) as a type of tenacious clay or cement used to stop holes, seal joints, etc. (c. 1400), from Old French lut or Medieval Latin lutum, from the Latin noun. Lute also was a verb in English.
we will have to match them nuke for nuke.
it aint good.
So to sum up you don’t like Ukraine being forced to become Russia’s bitch once again but hey, shit happens. How about Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, and Finland. Is their independence also unrelated to American interests and certainly not worth nuclear war. Maybe you should identify American interests.
As to Putin’s war it is extremely logical. He wants to restore Russia to the empire of 1914 so he must reconquer the Slavs/Balts who “escaped” Russian clutches in ’91. If he successfully conquers Ukraine neighboring Slavs and Balts will be frightened and obey their “Mother”. This seems very logical to me. What do you find illogical about Russia’s war?
If the Russians can hold to (Krasnij) Liman, I think they’ll take over the initiative.
I don’t get it what’s the point of bombing columns of Ukrainians waiting to go to Russian territory…Yesterday near Kharkhov around 20 dead civilians, today near Energodar 30.
No civilians were waiting to go to RU occupied territory. And no columns of civilians were bombed by Ukraine.
My money is on the Army with cats fully integrated into their forces:
I wouldn’t want to meet that Tom in a dark alley.
I have five cats right now – they hunt cooperatively, both mice and bats. The biggest is 14.5 pounds, but the one you least want to meet is the 5 pound tuxedo cat. They’re very good at it, too.
Digging digging baby
What does that mean? For god’s sake, don’t be so cryptic. Granted F&L’s jabberwocky numerology is difficult to get through, but you’re not even leaving me a place to start deciphering.
The Soviet era supply in Eastern Europe seems exhausted and this article says the US has essentially run out of the 155 mm howitzers. Is this a lobby for the MIC or a possible upcoming disadvantage.
Don’t know what our stocks of 155mm ammo look like, but they are made in a lot of other countries. I did see that we’re also now providing a lot of 105mm artillery shells for the lightweight howitzers so somebody is surely thinking of the burn rate for the 155 shells. It’s also a good thing that the Ukrainians are capturing a lot of Russian ammo. Gun tubes for both 155 and 105 howitzers are another item to think about. A lot of Russian artillery tubes are bursting from overuse.
T squared Genius,
You probably want to get around to mentioning Handsome Lloyd and General Milley on Aire the other day – they announced an arm Ukraine program – looks darn extensive and long term. Probably plenty of shells. Which when served stuffed as Ziti are almost as favorite to me as Ravioli with wild mushrooms.
You are a gentleman and a scholar, Sir. What a teacher you would have made, and are.
“Jab her, Walkie.” Charles Lutwidge Dodgson, a brilliant and perhaps tormented man. In love with Alice.
You silly retired special forces officer of the United States Military, you. You wanted to see if I noticed that Dodgson begins with Dod. Thank you very much. I am requesting a pass on Lutwidge. Please take silly as a plural of the Russian Cil as in siloviki, meaning men of strength.
Did the genius Lewis Carrol foresee the Wall Key Tall key? What the ..
( I too have found F&L’s material difficult to get through. But I have found it very easy to get around. God made a scroll button.)
With nowhere to hide on the flats tunnels are the only options.right under the very noses.
Tunnels and underground bunkers .There is one running from kherson to sevastpol,full of elves digging away
As someone who’s dug my share of fighting positions, I tend to agree.
Latest from Rybar.
The Russians have pull out of Liman and back to Torske where they have blown the bridge.
It appears the Russian military is in some disarray since the Ukrainian counter-offensive began. They can’t seem to hold a defensive line in their forward areas. It looks like the Ukrainian military still has considerable momentum for their maneuvers while the Russian military is trying to figure out where they’ll establish a solid defensive line. Who could have imagined this battlefield situation at the beginning of the invasion? The Ukrainian military chasing the Russian military. Col. Lang & TTG were early in their opinion that the Russian military wasn’t as strong as they were advertised to be. One thing about this war is that it has uncovered the real analysts vs the propagandists. Of course the propagandists will always have an audience as there is a considerable anti-American segment among the bloggers whose propaganda now resembles Baghdad Bob.
Putin’s mobilization could be a day late and a dollar short? It will be interesting to see how much of the Donbass the Ukrainian military recovers before the winter war in cold conditions begins. How well equipped will the Russian military be compared to the Ukrainians for winter cold condition warfare?
I’m beginning to think Putin’s grand mobilization will in some respects end up being reminiscent of the Children’s Crusade, and just about as successful.
From Forbes today: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/29/russian-correspondent-thousands-of-russian-troops-are-about-to-get-trapped-in-the-east/?sh=66945c382dcd
“… Without Lyman, the Kremlin will have to reconfigure its logistics in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. And while it does, many battalions currently clinging to defensive positions across the northern part of Donbas could starve and weaken…”
I don’t know what the Russians are doing or planning, but Lyman wasn’t worth the lives of a hundred Russian troops. This war isn’t going to be decided by who controls which bit of territory in Ukraine. Thought experiment: Draw the LOC 20 miles forward or 20 miles backward. Does this change Russia’s fundamental problem? Which is How to defeat the Ukrainians … permanently.
Drifter you remark … “Russia’s problem is how to beat the Ukrainians, permanently”. I inquire, why is that a problem for Russia? Your last sentence is the crux of the entire war/issue; isn’t it?
Why isn’t Russia’s concern “how to best have friendly and mutually rewarding relations w/her nearest neighbor”. Further, why should Russia still feel it is in her best interest to intimidate her Baltic neighbors?
The answer always seems to be that the rest of the world needs to be cognizant and respectful of Russian security concerns. I have a question too. Shouldn’t the west be concerned about Ukraine’s, Poland’s, Finland’s, Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s security concerns. I guess not.. Why not?
OK – I have no military training, but it appears to me that Russia has never really defined for themselves what their victory condition is. As far as I can see, the thing they need to do is to get to Kyiv and force the Ukrainian government to come to terms – until they do that, this will not end in a positive way for the Russians. Right now, they have all their military off on wild goose chases that might make them feel good, but don’t get them closer to what they clearly want – uncontested ownership of at least the four oblasts the “annexed” this week and a cessation of military operations. And they’re behaving IMO like an army that has absolutely nothing left to bring to the table offensively (or, increasingly, defensively).
OK. Let’s see tehm get to Kiev
Well, they won’t get there, of course. That’s obvious by inspection. But they also won’t convince Ukraine to sue for peace by mucking about in some oblasts in the south and east (not very successfully) and as far as I can see going beyond culmination into something that is likely to completely fall apart sooner rather than later. Therefore, they won’t win, and the sooner they wake up to that and begin walking home, the better for everyone involved.
their victory condition is to grab as much as they can get away with
The neat trick with that approach will be to get the Ukrainians to stop fighting, and I really think that just won’t happen. If the Ukrainian army were somehow to collapse and suddenly be unable to fight any more, all that would happen is that they would immediately move to an insurgency (which to be honest is pretty much where I initially thought they would be by mid-March); think Afghanistan on steroids, being supplied by the US, Poland, and the Baltics at the very least – and with a much shorter supply chain that we had to deal with in Afghanistan. (I don’t think that’s where this will end up though – I expect the Russians to pretty much collapse over the next few months.)
here’s an interesting read:
It is an interesting read.Then I noticed his blog was launched a month ago.The layout is professionally done and the black arrows on the map really neat.
Big serge suggests a man with a plan.The link in pink
The Ukrainian military continues their offensive on multiple fronts and the Russian military is retreating under pressure. Can a routed military drum up the psychological fortitude to refight and reclaim lost territory?
New cauldrons potentially brewing everywhere. Can the Ukrainian military heat one up in Kherson by linking up their forces in Dudchany with their troops driving east from Davidhy Bri? I was thinking that in Luhansk they should avoid the strong points and go for Starobilsk. ‘Ukrainian Governor of Luhansk Oblast, Serhiy Haidai, stated that Russian forces had fled Starobelsk adding that the city was “practically empty”. ‘ But that might be too big a bite. Don’t want to repeat another Debaltseve disaster. Small bites are better unless they have overwhelming superiority. Any guesse as to what size reserve units they have waiting for an exploitation phase in the Donbas?
I’m guessing Ukrainian reserves are not massive. Most of the actions I’m reading about involve company or company minus sized combined arms teams. Tank platoons carry less than 30 rounds at a time, probably to avoid catastrophic turret launches. They use that up in ten minutes of sustained combat and have to rearm.
By all accounts the Russians are dazed, confused and shit out of reserves. But they are still dangerous and can inflict losses on the Ukrainians they can ill afford if they’re allowed to consolidate and throw out mine fields. IMO the best bet is to push the lighter sabotage-recon units like the two battalions of the Kraken Regiment into the rear avoiding strong points and tearing up as many command and control, artillery and logistic targets as they can. Use their drones for recon and calling in long range fires. These units have already proved up to the task. The tank and mech brigades can catch up.
I have read in his Bio that Putins family was from NW Russia and of Finnish DNA..His Father was a well known Chef..Who Prepared All Meals for Lenin…and that V. Putin grew up in Lenins Presence as the Revolution was On Going and Thats how V Putin Got Connected to Moscow..His Education..Political Connections….and A Rank in the KGB,,
Perhaps He Feared Russia’s Evolution into The EU..And even NATO after Gorbachevs
Relations with DC and Ronald Regan..V Putin has Expressed every Sarcastic Comment He Can Make About That Transistion..Contempt for The EU..Or NATO..I/E Russia
would NEVER Lower itself To That Status..Russ ia Is Greater than Any European Nation..
I Suspect Russia Blew the Baltin Pipe Line..and Associated Resources with It.There is
Some Speculation That Russia will Cut At Least 30 Underwater Cables in The Atlantic where they are thinner with little Protection..
Will Russia get Involved in Irans Revolution..?? Help Cut All Social Network Communication…?? Wil Russia Heavy Smoke Kyiv now that Two Putins are Mad and Madder…Does He Believe He has a Holy Manifest Destiny..?? He has Made this matter a Religious Issue…To others ,,Its still a Political Issue..Like liberating Libya..And Killing Mubarak. For The Brothers.. Money Matters …The Root..
Ah…What Ever Happened..To Remote Viewing…And Good Espionage..
Lenin died in 1924, Putin wasn’t born until the 1952.
Thanks Fred..Glad You Read the Comments..Yes I read all that Data about Lenin a long time ago..I Forgot it Was V. Putins Grandfater Who was a Chef..Spiridon Putin…Dec 19th..1879
To Dec 19th 1965…(86 years) Rasputin loved Putins Cooking..
So Spiridon Moved From TVER Governorate..NW Area..To
Moscow..And They Became V. LENINs Chef…And When V.Lenin passed on..in 1924….Spiridon Contiued As Family Chef For Lenins Famous Wife and her Sister..for many years..
Spiridon Putin also Cooked for Stalin.. So…Vladimire had That Connection….and Family History to The Communists…War..Mass Extermination..Sieges..Destiny With Glory..A Deep Hatred for Liver and Onions and British Music.
First time I looked at Putin’s picture I knew he was a Finn. But then doesn’t Finland “belong” to Mother Russia?
I am constantly surprised by correspondents who are confused by Putin’s motives. Putin is a son of Russia. He is a product of Russian history and wants to rtn it to its glory of 1914. To that end he must b/g a campaign similar to that of 1918-22 and reconquer those nationalities that left the Czar’s empire after the commies came in. What is confusing about this?
Speaking of Finns, Prime Minister Sanna Marin clearly spelled out an off ramp for Putin in terms as cold and clear as the Karelian air. “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine.” That’s it. No further explanation or embellishment.
Party on, Sanna.