(Burkan2)
IMO Bibi is trying to steer the world of the goyim . Iran and Hizbullah are his betes noires. In Jared Kushner he has IMO a nearly perfect liaison to send back and forth between Washington and Riyadh to whisper in the ears of the high and mighty and to "inform" his father in law, an ignoramus in geopolitics, as to Bibi's "truth."
In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah's strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran.
Let us be clear, Saudi Arabia would contribute nothing to such wars. Their armed forces are some of the world's largest static displays of export model military equipment. As my Canadian grandfather used to say of the truly useless, "they aren't worth a piss hole in the snow."
Adel Jubeir (aka the Chihuaha) is the foreign minister of SA. He is a commoner kept around as a convenience because he speaks native US English. He acquired that from attendance at US community schools in the various capitals in which his diplomat father served. Jubair now claims that the missile fired at Riyadh was "smuggled" into Yemen from Iran and fired by Lebanese Hizbullah. Well, guess what? These are Bibi's two great bugaboos. Where do you think the Chihuahua got this "data?" Saudi Arabian intelligence is a joke. They can't find their asses with both hands. IMO Jubair got that from Kushner who got it from the Israelis. I would bet my own money that Kushner's phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read.
The missile battalion of the pro-Salih faction of the Yemeni Army who fired this missile have a long experience of ballistic missiles. They had SCUD when I was Defense Attache there thirty years ago. They have been firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia throughout the present war.
All in all, a bibi scam that is working well. pl
Saw this this am. This has been clear as day for a while.
Though, it is surprising this would leak. Israel is pretty good about keeping things shtum. Have to wonder if there is some pushback on Bibi’s lunacy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-07/leaked-secret-israeli-cable-confirms-israeli-saudi-coordination-lebanon
Wider moves are afoot, according to the Turkish Journalist Ibrahim Karagul. He speculates that these are the 1st moves in an alliance that will lead to war with Iran and potentially divide Saudi Arabia.
“a new “security shield” that completely prioritizes Israel’s security interests, that is focused on re-establishing the U.S.’s power in the Middle East, is being built under the guidance of the United Arab Emirates and leadership of the U.S. and Israel.
http://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ibrahimkaragul/what-is-actually-happening-in-riyadh-ever-2040193
There are some press reports that Yemenis have threatened to send the next missile to Dubai. That would be an eye-opener for the Gulf. Burqan-2 certainly has that range. No info available on whether those threats are from official sources, or from angry low level tweeters.
http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/06112017
Would US 5th Fleet naval base in Bahrain be threatened next? Probably not as the majority of Bahrainis are Shiites.
Where are the Burqan launchers being hidden. The sky of Yemen is full of Saudi and UAE aircraft plus the US intel community is certainly sharing overhead imagery. Those Yemeni SSM units must be masters of camo.
Jane’s has an interesting link on Yemeni SSMs. Jane’s insight is that the Burqan was locally developed, probably with major modifications to SCUD airframe and warhead.
http://www.janes.com/images/assets/330/72330/Yemeni_rebels_enhance_ballistic_missile_campaign.pdf
IHS Janes has an analysis of the Yemeni missiles. Basically – Soviet and North Korean Scuds of various types modified in Yemen to get to a longer range. No Iranian missiles through modification expertise from Iran may have been consulted:
http://www.janes.com/images/assets/330/72330/Yemeni_rebels_enhance_ballistic_missile_campaign.pdf
Yesterday the Yemeni forces also showed off anti-ship cruise missiles of the C-801 variant. These are Chinese made and were bought way back by Saleh. When they will be used the Saudis will claim they are newer C-802 and thus from Iran.
—
As for Netanyahoo playing Trump, Kushner and MbS.
What is the role of MbZ of the Emirates in this? He is the mentor of MbS and probably too smart to fall for Netanyahoo’s play. What is his aim?
way off topic, but of interest
Binney met with Pompeo about the DNC leak/hack.
Long article with high bias against Binney.
“I was willing to meet Pompeo simply because it was clear to me the intelligence community wasn’t being honest here,” Binney said, referring to their assessment of the DNC email theft. “I am quite willing to help people who need the truth to find the truth and not simply have deceptive statements from the intelligence community.”
https://theintercept.com/2017/11/07/dnc-hack-trump-cia-director-william-binney-nsa/
Here goes Nikki:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran-usa/u-s-calls-for-u-n-action-against-iran-over-yemen-missile-idUSKBN1D7251?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5a01e69704d30105493ef5f6&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
on cue from her master in Israel.
Interesting take on developments in an op ed in YeniSafak – to my knowledge a pretty reliable mouthpiece for Erdogan.
A few highlights:
It ends: “Whoever cooperates with them will lose both the region and their own land. Whoever is close to the U.S. in this period becomes divided, never forget this”.
Dramatic, perhaps hysterical stuff, some of which is not news. But to me it notable in being unequivocal in its view that Turkey, if forced to take sides, may do so against the US/Israeli/KSA/UAE coalition.
Channel 10 News (Israel) has a leaked story, brought to us in english via Zerohedge site: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-07/leaked-secret-israeli-cable-confirms-israeli-saudi-coordination-lebanon
If Russia showed up to the party for Syria, there is no doubt in my mind that Iran is not something they would be willing to put on the table. The Saudis are making a big error here and will make their contribution soon.
If I were Iran, I would start by sinking MBS’s $600M yacht. That would be viral news.
> Saudi Arabian intelligence is a joke.
Tangential to the point of your posting, but why is that?
The Saudis seem to be reasonably well connected in the world and have a lot of money to buy services from elsewhere if they need them.
re: “In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah’s strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran.”
Colonel Lang,
Would you consider running a war-game on SST examining this scenario? It seems probable that such a gambit could spell the end of both israel and ksa, and trigger a global SHTF event. Perilous times.
Ishmael Zechariah
Colonel, I remember and I am sure you do too, back in 78, a few months before Shah leaves Iran for a permanent exile and for the last time, he thought he can calm the streets by purging and rounding up his top aids and prominent rich businessmen including his long term naive prime minster for charges of corporations. Like Iran back than, recent Saudi events doesn’t seem like a healthy stable state. Sudden purge of clerics, speaking of being moderate, allow some freedom to youth, sounds like the youth there are firing up like Iran 78. I guess CIA station there must be running on multiple OTs if they have it right this time, unlike thier time with shah’.
Allen Thomson
In my experience of them they are not culturally advanced enough to handle the organizational processes needed to cultivate in various collection, analytic and dissemination issues needed to have worthwhile intelligence produced. In my experience of them, positive intelligence for them consists of people sitting around in MODA offices clipping newspaper articles and putting them in manila folders. For the Saudis and many other people “intelligence” means secret police work. As to hiring the talent, they don’t because they fear such people. pl
Iran needs not to do anything to distablize KSA, MbS is doing a great job for them.
I am sure if not attacked Iran will do nothing.
kooshy
I really don’t see what the CIA has to do with this other than as YOUR bugaboo. IMO this is about Kushner and Bibi. pl
Indeed. Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.
“I would bet my own money that Kushner’s phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read.”
Funny how it’s only collusion and treason when it’s related to Russia, but no one in MSM or national politics dares to raise an eyebrow when it’s related to Israel.
Personally don’t like Goldman aka Spengler of the Asia Times, but I have learned from the Col. to evaluate the facts/ideas separately from the source. After discounting his bias, interest, and prejudices. I see that he makes some good points.
“A senior Chinese official complained that the Saudi royal family funds every radical madrassa in Xinjiang province, where Muslim Uyghurs of Turkish ethnicity form the majority. …. The Chinese official said, “We talk to the Saudis all the time, and they say they will have nothing to do with it. But this is not a government. It is a family! Some crazy cousin is always sending money to terrorists through informal finance channels. ….Now it appears that Saudi Arabia has a government, thanks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s weekend purge of the royal family”
http://www.atimes.com/saudi-arabia-gets-first-real-government/
He makes the point that the “night of the long knives” followed a visit to Russia and thereby probably has a trifecta of blessing from the Americans, Russia, & Chinese. The Russians are tickled pink at anything that will increase oil prices, the Chinese are happy over the prospect of tighter control of Salafi financial support, and Trump is happy b/c Jared is pleased that KSA is on board with the Israeli agenda.
In other news, it appears that King Salman will be stepping down imminently so MBS can ascend the throne.
The Turks, Iran, Hisbullah, & Lebanon will not be happy. There remains the problem of the Saudi caused misery in Yemen, the trapped Salafists in Idlib, & uppity Qatar. UAE is pleased as MBS is their protege. MBS will have to come up with a plan to get the Shia of the Eastern province on his side.
My take, is per the Lindy effect, much talked about by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if MBS makes it past the next 30 days, then he is likely to make it past his first year.
Colonel, after the Iranian revolution during the 1980 elections, the debate here was who
lost Iran, some belived CIA relied too much on the Savak and didn’t reach to ooosition and was out of touch with coming revolution, and couldn’t foresee the coming revolt.
I mean if infact the KSA’ under surface politics is unstable, and youth there is gearing for revolt, IC should be prepared and try to prevent.
Kooshy
US diplomats or military people meeting off duty with saudis are expelled from the country. pl
Pepe Escobar gets the inside details of the Saudi purge…
The inside story of the Saudi night of long knives
http://thesaker.is/the-inside-story-of-the-saudi-night-of-long-knives/
With regard to the CIA…
Quote
Nayef – who replaced Bandar – is close to Washington and extremely popular in Langley due to his counter-terrorism activities. His arrest earlier this year angered the CIA and quite a few factions of the House of Saud – as it was interpreted as MBS forcing his hand in the power struggle.
According to the source, “he might have gotten away with the arrest of CIA favorite Mohammed bin Nayef if he smoothed it over but MBS has now crossed the Rubicon though he is no Caesar. The CIA regards him as totally worthless.”
End Quote
Colonel sir, in that case, god saves us all, as I think a SOB MbS is much much preferred to SOB ObL.
If duplicate please disregard.
Colonel, BTW, looks like his the first time me and John Bolton have the same idea on anything.
“US needs contingency plan for ‘Shah of Iran scenario’ in Saudi Arabia: Amb. Boltonhttp://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/11/07/us-needs-contingency-plan-for-shah-iran-scenario-in-saudi-arabia-amb-bolton.html
Reading the comments in that article on Spengler is an interesting activity. Goldman is pretty gay for Israel. He’s in the comments thread arguing that they’ll turn Lebanon into a pile of rubble and that Condi Rice held Olmert back in 2006. Quite a spectacle.
The most interesting question is, “What happened to Donald Trump when he was elected?” During the primaries, Donald mocked McCain for having been a prisoner of war, said W’s invasion of Iraq was the worst mistake made by a President, and generally dismissed the Republican establishment. Then he got elected and suddenly he was the ME’s latest war monger. And Iran was the center of all evil.
Here’s what happened. Donald had declared bankruptcy five times. The banks no longer wanted to lend to him. He was a deadbeat. So he went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return.
Then he got elected President. What was the establishment to do? Simple. Give the Saudi’s a call and tell them to make Donald whole. Donald’s first visit as President was to SA. He does the sword dance with them, and they tell him “Guess what Donald. We will pay your debts, but you do as we say.” And Donald, with his tongue hanging out, says where do I sign?
KSA calls Bibi and asks him what he wants. Presto! We have the new Donald. Recent events suggest that SA, seeing how easy it was to buy Donald, are feeling their oats. Sure they say, “How high”, when Bibi says jump, but still they want to get some of their own weight into the ring. I guess my question is how closely are SA and Bibi working together? If intelligence is not SA’s strong suit, they might get something wrong.
hopefully the armaments of both sides have by now reached a stage of mutual deterrence. I always mention the ammonia works of Haifa, but the Col says Israel has bigger problems than that one. As Stalin famously said, quantity has a quality all of its own. And Hizb’ullah has a vast quantity of missiles- enough to overwhelm any air defense. A situation of mutually agreed rubble.
I wouldn’t be eager to open that door if I were in the leadership in Israel. As you say, Hezbollah has the ability to retaliate, and pressure will be on the Izzies to silence the counter batteries. They can’t do that with airpower alone and I would not want to see their weekend warriors put into a ground war against Hezbollah’s battle hardened forces.
Many are talking of war. The goal here is likely to foster a civil war and economic pain in Lebanon. Jihadists, political tricks, and sanctions are the likely tools. The Israelis have no intention of getting themselves killed (that’s for others) or in seeing Tel Aviv leveled and the Saudis have no real capabilities to win even next door in Yemen. They will not fight Hezbollah 1600 KM away in Lebanon and they can’t bribe any other country to do so.
Beyond destabilization and economic sanctions, they may believe that they can get Trump to use US military or intelligence assets against Hezbollah in Lebanon. I’m skeptical even Trump will fall for that though he’ll probably throw some money to the CIA to influence Lebanon which will do nothing.
Someone needs to give Hezbollah air defenses. Last i read the Israeli’s go into Lebanese air space daily. More importantly, the Israelis will think even longer about doing something stupid if their air force is threatened. I understand that Israelis are scared but it appears as if nothing short of genocide and destruction of their neighbors will make them feel safe.
I do not agree, I think he and his father and their clan are much more in touch with their society than the Shah was with Iran’s. That clan has to deal with Ikhwan challenge, Jihadist challenge, Arab Spring challenge, as well as those of Western Modernity and domestic rigidity. They have been gradually making movements in the direction of Liberty. For that society, some of what is occurring now is almost revolutinary – like women being able to enter stores without male accompaniment. Bahrain and Kuwait it is not.
The more grandiose plans are almost certainly just plans and dreams.
Colonel,
FYI:
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/leaked-secret-cable-israeli-saudi/
Well you know Nikki, and those folks in general. They would never, ever, ever lie.
I’m adding Nikki to my list of humanoid entities suspected of being made of anti-matter. Bibi has topped the list forever of late. Donald a close second. MbS recently inducted, tho we’re still hoping he’s a five-year plan style reformer. Maybe they are android prototypes — rejects most likely. Because they miserably failed human emotional simulation. Need to check the panel on the back of their necks. Poor lonely s.o.b.s.
Then there’s Hilary. Leaky batteries? No comment.
“Whoever is close to the U.S. in this period becomes divided.”
Could simply be they think schizophrenia is contagious.
You can’t outsource trust, at any price.
Obtained by an Israeli journalist in Israel from what I can see. Nutty has opposition.
“So he went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return.”
Do you have proofs ?
Houthi are shias. No they are not, they are zaidis but also sunis.
The same apply to Hezbollah that is mainly shias but you can find christians also.
ME is more complicated than Westerners think.
Simplification is always a trap.
Threatening Lebanon will lead to a simple effect, push Lebanon in the welcoming arms of Russia.
In case people have not been following this British scandal, a cabinet minister, Priti Patel, of the Department for International Development, was last week exposed for a secret visit to Israel. In the (likely) event of Theresa May’s defenestration she is among the runners to replace her.
She failed to inform the Foreign Office or Number 10 of her visit so no security was provided, no diplomats were present or transcripts taken. The visit had been arranged by the ex-head of the Conservative Friends of Israel and she was accompanied by him throughout her several day visit. She wanted financial backing from him to run a campaign (when May falls) to become Prime Minsiter.
At first she claimed she was on holiday and just happened to run into three different influential Israelis. Then it turned out she met seven or eight, including Netanyahu. It then turned out that she had talked about using her Aid Money (meant for undeveloped countries) to pay the Israeli Army in “its work to aid Syrian refugees.” Especially to support the hospitals that patch up shot up jihadis to return to the battlefield. Now its revealed that she actually visited such a hospital.
Before she could be pinned down in the House of Commons, she jumped on a plane to Uganda but was ordered to return to Heathrow by May, presumably to be sacked.
What she was involved in was borderline treason. She could have essentially become an Israeli asset operating in the heart of the British government – they had enough to blackmail her with..
This is the second attempt in under a year of the Israelis trying to directly influence the British government and parliament in its policies. Both of them have been made public. Israel is losing its touch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41904459
Clueless,
I think the Brits are seeing problems with Israel as detailed in this Daily Mail piece. It doesn’t bode well for Teresa May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5060241/Priti-Patel-faces-sack-meetings-Israeli-PM.html
Dear Colonel,
Your analysis is spot on, and you leave dangling the question for SST what will the US do?
Well, so far, I have not seen any significant initiatives of the Donald’s administration in the ME. He fired a few missiles into Syria that hit virtually nothing, he completed the US anti-ISIS effort, and put the SDF in a better negotiating position, a lot of speeches, continuity in Afghanistan. Oh, and he has not landed hard on the house of Saud (unlike which president? – oh all of them!).
So it is a very big risk for Israel to think he will necessarily get involved to save their bacon. Sure Kushner would push, but I suspect the generals would counsel against – let the Izzies truly realize their own limitations on their own. Upcoming midterms, conflicts with Republican’s, approval in the 30s (and the potential to lose the congressional majorities) to me says our mercurial president with his short attention span might just stand aside except for some symbolic military gestures.
Bottom line: I argue, very uncertain.
Pushback in Israel yes, but also in other interesting places, like Egypt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-egypt/egypt-not-considering-measures-against-lebanons-hezbollah-cnbc-idUSKBN1D72NE
Same CNBC interview with Sisi was covered by Al-Arabiya. Oddly they just focused on the question of whether or not he may run for a second term. Perhaps they know something he doesn’t.
Also, don’t know if anyone else saw this, but it may be relevant in the current context. Bibi’s left and right hand men; fixers, confidants (& his cousins) were both arrested on Sunday in dawn raids: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/israel-germany-egypt-benjamin-netanyahu-yitzhak-molcho.html. What’s the Hebrew for “drain the swamp”?
Bill Herschel – might I ask for confirmation on a couple of points:-
1. “So he (Trump) went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return.”
My understanding is that foreign money has been looking for a safe haven in the States. And that in order to get the money into the States the lenders are prepared to accept a higher level of risk than the domestic banks will accept. The resultant flow of money, particularly from China and Russia, is apparently substantial, here in Europe as well as in the United States.
I happen to believe that this flow is highly undesirable in that it distorts local property markets and is also not always beneficial to the country the investments come from, but that belief is not relevant here. What I have not heard is that this flow of money results in political pressure being applied to the recipients. For those recipients it’s just a source of finance like any other, though perhaps easier to tap. Now that one such recipient has become the President of the United States might I ask, is there any evidence that this otherwise routine commercial transaction is now being used as a means of pressuring the President?
2. “”Guess what Donald. We (the Saudis) will pay your debts, but you do as we say.”
Except of course in the case of our own dear Queen I’m prepared to believe just about anything said of the world of high finance; but even so it’s fair to expect at least some evidence. Where is the evidence for this?
So that’s two questions, Bill. Where’s the evidence that the President’s former sources of investment finance are now pressuring him on behalf of the Russian Government? Where is the evidence that the Saudis have bought and paid for your President?
“The Israelis have no intention of getting themselves killed (that’s for others) or in seeing Tel Aviv leveled and the Saudis have no real capabilities to win even next door in Yemen.”
Intentions of Creative Reality Imperialists can quickly be turned into a pile of dust and ashes when the factor of human stupidity in strategic matters leads them to act, only to witness the true effects of reality on their false desires.
“Someone needs to give Hezbollah air defenses.”
Their is some off shore that can be used in a pinch if the problem escalates to a need for action. Plus the persistent public rumor is they have some but will only use it if necessary.
Today, in the Netherlands Iranian Ahmad Mola Nissi was killed. Off course the Iranian government is blamed for this on Internet.
It is clear from which movement he is from the reports but I think the Ahwaz Liberation Organisation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_separatism_in_Khuzestan#Ahwaz_Liberation_Organisation
A minor detail is that this group was responsible for the well-known Iranian emmbassy-siege in 1980, but this will probably be ignored by the MSM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Struggle_Movement_for_the_Liberation_of_Ahwaz
They claimed to have blown up two pipelines in January
I think this is their website
http://www.ahwazna.org/index.php?&lang=2
Please see below interview with Ambassador Sadeghi:
http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/page/1973050/%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%88%DB%8C+%D9%BE%D9%87%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C+%D8%AF%D8%B1+%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86+%D8%AA%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1+%D9%86%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF.html