Jomini of the West maps for 1 April – TTG

If a picture is worth a thousand words, a map is worth a short story, at least. Here are four maps with commentary. If these are too difficult to read, the originals are at Enjoy.

Comment: I still don’t see a favorable endgame for Russia. Even if they do manage to occupy all of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, what then? Resistance will continue unless Putin is willing to deport or kill the entire population. Given what is being found around Kyiv as Russian troops continue to withdraw, Putin may be willing to go that far. Pol Pot has nothing on that miserable little SOB from Saint Petersburg.

Ukraine will not accept the permanent loss of those oblasts. At this point they won’t even accept the Russian annexation of Crimea. I see no reasonable scenario where the West will accept Putin winning a sizable chunk of Ukraine as a reward for his invasion of the country. The world economy will continue to realign. Russia and Ukraine will continue to bleed until one or the other is exhausted. I’m not sure who will bleed out first militarily.


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77 Responses to Jomini of the West maps for 1 April – TTG

  1. Leith says:

    Nathan Ruser, a mapmaker and researcher for the Aussie ASPI, also puts out some good maps. @Nrg8000 on twitter.

    In this one from earlier today he shows territory recaptured by Ukraine in yellow. Pretty extensive if accurate.

    Regarding that that tiny yellow thumb of recaptured area near Popasna (?) on the far right just below Sieverodinsk, it looks as though the Ukrainians just barely dodged a Debaltseve type cauldron. For now anyway. For sure Ukraine will redeploy some troops from around Kiev. If so can they reenact the Battle of Kursk where the Wehrmacht tried to pinch off a Soviet salient but got hammered by counterattacks? Maybe or maybe not. Air support will be critical and Russia has the edge in aviation. But it might be possible if Putin is counting on the Wagner Group – or Ossetians & Abkhazians who don’t want to be there anyway. I don’t envy either side if that battle happens.

    • Philip Owen says:

      The starstreaks are now active as well as stingers. Russian planes will need to fly above 5000 m to avoid them. At 5000 m BUKs and S300s can find and shoot them. Flying low to miss the radar isn’t such a great option anymore. RU air dominance eroded a bit more again.

      That said, the starstreaks haven’t shot down anything faster than a helicopter yet.

      • Leith says:

        Philip Owen –

        Was the helo you mentioned the MI-28 shot down over Luhansk Oblast two days ago where the missile cut off the tail boom? How the hell are those tungsten darts in the Starstreak able to maneuver at mach 4? And that semi-active laser homing is a bit tricky also. I’ve read the literature on Wiki, but it is way beyond my ken.

        What took down the Su-35 near Izium? The Aviationist Blog suggests it was on an air defense suppression mission. Which is kind of weird, as a top line fighter you would think he should have been hunting Ukrainian Bayraktars, or MIGs if they have any left.

  2. James says:

    TTG –

    I was in Kiev two years before Maidan. The Oranges were in Independence Square and CNN/BBC were reporting from the square non-stop for two days. Russian media provided no coverage at all.

    I went to Poland and returned to Kiev three weeks later. When I returned the Blues were in Independence Square and Russian media was covering it non-stop. CNN/BBC didn’t cover it at all!

    I worry that you might be relying on CNN too much to suss out what you think the people of Ukraine actually want.

    • joe90 says:

      I was in Spain and RT reported on both. It been my take that the local TV media follow the ruling class line just about everywhere. No one wants trannies but the ruling class seem obsessed with it so we get that everywhere. Europe wanted a gas pipeline from Qatar, so a 100k jihadist turn up in Syria! and are called freedom fighters and democracy supporters etc.

  3. zmajcek says:

    The price Russia is paying and will continue to pay is heavy. Too heavy to believe that they are going for just the Donbass. After the bulk of the Ukrainian army is neutralized and most of its assets are gone, Russians will probably move to take much more territory.
    They have experience fighting the UPA in post war period so there is probably a plan for handling the insurgency as well.

    Putin obviously cares little for the carnage his “special” operation is causing. Sadly, the West seems to care only about hurting Russia and is adding fuel to the fire. Arming the Ukrainians willing to fight is fine, but actions to deescalate should be a part of the solution.

    This should be resolved through negotiations ASAP or in a few months the whole country will get wrecked.

  4. Whitewall says:

    V. Putin may be so mentally crippled that he will become the fly dead set on conquering the fly paper. Pitiful.

  5. Fred says:

    “The Epitome of Strategy” That’s putting a great spin on things.They had 6-8 years to do something about the defense of the rest of the country too.

    • TTG says:


      I believe that “Epitome of Strategy” thing is a direct quote from Jomini. Considering where the Ukrainian military was 6 to 8 years ago, where they are now is a military miracle. The current concept of national defense that is now sweeping the frontline states of Eastern Europe has only been around a few years.

      • Fred says:


        That’s a quote off the blue text box on the second map. Where they are now is a disaster that is only survivable because of Russian incompetence. It gives lie yet again to our intelligence services and their estimates of our potential enemies’ capabilities. I think the Russians at least figured out the BTG structure needs mass behind it, airborne assaults with no element of surprise won’t end well, and – logistics. On our end I think there are going to be many a career made on selling the idea we can never leave NATO, Eastern Europe is somehow America’s friend/obligation, and of course, don’t look at our own border.

  6. plantman says:

    According to the latest polling, President Biden’s public approval rating in the US is 40%
    Among Russians, Putin’s public approval is 83%

    The Russians apparently understand why Putin invaded Ukraine while Americans apparently don’t.

    Also, it is possible to discuss these matters without demonizing the person with whom we disagree. America has always been a place where people can have different opinions.

    Let’s keep it that way.

  7. Ernst wang says:

    No one understands a damn thing about any issues plaguing the world nowadays, mainly because the GOEBELS effect has taken very strong roots THROUGHOUT the western MSM…

    • TTG says:

      Ernst Wang,

      Yes, the Goebbels effect is alive and well, but why do you restrict its presence to Western media? Do you consider Russia and China to be bastions of objective truth. If we want truth, we have to work hard to root it out. It will never be presented to us on a silver platter.

      • Steve says:


        But on one side of this conflict IO is being handed out on a silver platter, courtesy of some interestingly connected marketing companies in the US and UK. Meanwhile one really does have to seek out information from the Russian side of the war, and even then it’s very difficult to share it when the main instruments for doing so are energetically censored. What we’ve ended up with is an extremely skewed narrative of events since the 1990’s. Maintaining an ignorant population seems to have become the ongoing object of our institutions.

  8. Leith says:

    Speaking of the epitome of strategy – or rather the anti-epitome:

    Retreating Russian occupiers now in Narovlya Belarus have “set up a specialized bazaar selling property looted in Ukraine. They sell washing machines and dishwashers, refrigerators, jewelry, cars, bicycles, motorcycles, dishes, carpets, works of art, children’s toys, cosmetics. The occupiers are also trying to exchange stolen currency – dollars and euros. But due to internal restrictions on currency circulation, Belarusians are reluctant to agree to exchange transactions and offer the occupiers to turn to local banks.”

    Some others are instead sending electronics and household goodies home to Mama via СДЕК, a Russian version of UPS:

    • TTG says:


      The looting is small potatoes compared to the seemingly widespread atrocities committed by Russian troops in Bucha and other towns they occupied, far worse than anything I witnessed in the Shouf Mountains. Remember Colonel Lang’s call for the formation of a modern AVG with A-10s rather than P-40s? That’s needed now more than a month ago, not just to save Ukraine, but to save our own souls. Poland and the Baltic states will follow, if they don’t beat us to it. In other news, the Baltic states have ended all importation of Russian gas yesterday.

      • Leith says:

        TTG –

        Mariupol with its mountains of unburied corpses and child rape is going make Bucha look like a Sunday picnic. But no worry, Putin will blame it on the Azovistas. And there will be plenty of suckers in the west that believe him.

      • Fred says:


        “b” over at Moon of Alabama is wondering if it was someone other than the Russians who killed the civilians in Bucha.

        • Steve says:


          The most interesting part of that story is that special police units were sent in to “clean” the area immediately after the Russian pullback but din’t report anything of the bodies in the streets.

          • JohninMK says:

            That is but one piece of inconvenient information and video that is leading to an increasing level of doubt as to who actually killed those people and when. The timeline is probably the biggest problem, 3-4 days between the Russians leaving and the TV crews brought in.

          • jld says:

            “That is but one piece of inconvenient information and video “
            Truly inconvenient actually, I posted the link to this specific video with “only” 1 847 233 views but it didn’t pass the “moderation”. 🙂

  9. Degringolade says:


    Any update on the Colonel?

  10. KMD says:

    Too much advocacy masquerading as analysis here lately.
    There’s also a lot of mind reading going on as to Russian intentions and actions.
    Propaganda works.

  11. English Outsider says:

    TTG – a lot of stuff’s now coming out that’s sharpening up the picture of what happened before and up to the 21st – 24th February 2022.

    The main lines of the history are clear enough. The EU was making its move on the Ukraine well before 2014. NATO also. What the Russians were up to, watching all this grief coming their way and doing nothing much about it, I can’t guess.

    Then we get the coup and the use of the Galician neo-nazis to topple the then government. Then we get the Azov types sent down to the Donbas to beat up the pro-Russians. Turning a localised mess of protesters into federalists and then separatists.

    Then the indiscriminate shelling across the line of control, the shelling either denied or explained away by the Western press but continuing right up until the war. Still, apparently, continuing even today. Also ignored by the Western press.

    I think we have to accept that the Russians have now done what was needed to stop the shelling. I myself think they could have moved earlier. During the last few years the originally somewhat ineffectual Ukrainian army has been well armed and trained to NATO standards and has become an increasingly formidable force. And the neo-nazis have got control of the Ukrainian government and of most aspects of Ukrainian life. All this, and the clear neocon ambition to use the Ukraine to get at the Russians, was allowed to fester by the Russians for far too long.

    One sees various excuses put forward to explain Russian inaction before 2022. They weren’t ready, it’s said, to survive the heavy Western sanctions that would inevitably follow any attempt to stop the shelling. Ishchenko puts that excuse forward in the video I submitted recently so OK, maybe. Still sounds a bit weak to me. “Not ready”? When over a thousand a year of their fellow Russians were being killed right next door?

    But it’s what happened around February 21st that’s been coming out recently. And the doubts centre around Scholz. On the one hand, the American press tells us, he’d been trying to get Zelensky to see sense right up to that date. By that account Scholz was the angel of peace seeking an agreement that would stop the shelling – an arrangement that might also have allayed other Russian security fears as well. On the other, again a fact uncovered by the American press, Brussels had been working with the American neocons on a programme of heavy sanctions well before the 21st.

    Scholz must have known about that. Germany and France own Brussels and could not have been unaware of what Brussels and the neocons were cooking up. So what was Scholz doing, on the one had playing around persuading Zelensky to come to a settlement that would undoubtedly have averted war, and on the other preparing for a war he knew very well was coming?

    He knew war was coming because NATO deliberately created the provocation that would cause the Russians, finally, to move. It’s unrealistic to assert that Scholz was out of the loop on that. Even more unrealistic to assert he didn’t know about the sanctions the neocons and Brussels had got lined up for the Russians. Yet he was pretending to be trying to avert the war up until the very last minute.

    I don’t say Scholz caused the war. But he’s clearly responsible for not stopping it when he could have. I believe you and I, and the great mass of the American and British public, have been scammed. We’re being led to believe that the Russians woke up one morning and suddenly decided to attack a weaker country. The truth is that the Washington neocons and Brussels, Scholz doing his angel of peace act notwithstanding, set out to trap the Russians into war and got exactly what they planned for.

    • TTG says:


      The history of Ukraine’s involvement with both the EU and NATO began shortly after she regained her independence in 1991.Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1991 and the Partnership for Peace program in 1994. Integration into the EU was a major Ukrainian foreign policy objective in 1993 even while economic ties with Russia were strong. The Orange Revolution of 2004 was largely over electoral corruption and the desire for closer ties with the EU.

      The Euromaidan was sparked by Yanukovych’s decision not to sign the EU association agreement in late 2013. The US mistake, I believe, was to favor the Ukrainian far right element for fiscal and organizational aid at the expense of other western leaning groups. We activated what in our country is called the right wing base, which gave them an outsized influence immediately after the ouster of Yanukovych.

      Since then the far right influence has waned, but the pro-west sentiment across Ukraine has increased dramatically. Anti-corruption measures were finally being put in place against fierce opposition. The economy was becoming diversified and far less dependent on ties with Russia. And NATO integration was proceeding at break neck speed. None of that, naturally, appealed to Putin.

      Your figure of over a thousand Russian casualties a year in the Donbas is absolutely false. Most recently, there have been no more than a few dozen casualties total a year and that includes on both sides of the demarcation line. The vast majority of casualties, both military and civilian, occurred in 2014-2015 during the height of the fighting.

      Scholtz and the rest of the Western leaders did actively prepare contingency plans in case of a Russian invasion. Not to develop those plans would have been negligence of the highest order. The negotiations over the shape of the sanction regime was naturally intense. Scholtz was luke warm at best about any sanctions until Putin’s invasion was initiated. The German willingness to then embrace sanctions, including immediately shutting down Nord Stream 2, shocked the rest of the Western leaders and Putin. I think Germany’s quick response galvanized the West’s continuing response. No one trapped Russian into launching this invasion. No one ordered those BTGs to cross the border except Putin. He alone could stop this war quickly by withdrawing his forces back across his border. He won’t do that and, even if he did, I doubt it would stop the sanctions given the extent of the war crimes and atrocities committed by Russian forces that are now coming to light.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Re; atrocities – it seems to me that UKR’s war effort is primarily to deploy info/psy-ops. Some of the dead people supposedly killed by blood thirsty Russians came back to life as soon as they thought the cameras were off them.
        Whatever the extent – if any – of Russian crimes, Ukranian troops (Nazis?) are far from Lilly white. Last I knew, torturing/killing POWs is a crime.

        No one forced the invasion? Yeah, sure. Russia could just surrender to the Borg and globalist forces. Why would Putin withdraw troops and pay abeyance to the US? He’s winning, despite propaganda to the contrary – and he has to lead his country to final victory.

        • English Outsider says:

          Eric – I’m afraid there are going to be real atrocities coming out of this.

          The press doesn’t say much about the fact that a sizeable component of the Russian forces are not Russian troops. They are LDNR. They have no reason to love Azov. Nor Azov them. And the two sides are toe to toe in the Donbas. For neither of them will this be a gentlemanly war.

          • TTG says:


            Some of the Russian units around Kyiv came from Russia’s far east. There may be a reason Putin brought in non-Slavic troops. I doubt LDNR troops which includes many hastily conscripted locals would that callous against Ukrainian civilians, known Azov soldiers yes, but not civilians.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Yes. There will be real atrocities on both sides. Agree that the Ukronazis and collaborators will be abused and killed here and there. That will, as you say, largely be at the hands of LDNR fighting for the Russians. Lots of pent up anger and lust for revenge. Of course it will all be attributed to Putin who, if you listen to the US/British propaganda machine, has gone insane and is killing for the simple pleasure of it, like a serial killer.

            As I have been saying, as a citizen of the US, I do not appreciate my elected representatives fomenting or intervening in trouble in Europe for they own private gain, whether it be actual wealth (see Biden, et al) and/or a sense of power. My only horse in this race is the desire to see the fomenters exposed as idiot liars and manipulators and proven wrong, yet again, in the forlorn hope that maybe, just maybe, Americans will finally have had enough of those people and at least throw them out on the street, if not into prison (where they belong). Countering that hope is the history that those people always get away with even the most massive of criminal deceptions and screw-ups (see Iraq invasion) and the deeply ingrained Russophobia they have instilled in the American psyche. Americans have been primed to believe the most ludicrous of cartoon narratives about Russian stupidity and ghoulishness – and the purveyors of war, power and corruption are now cashing in on that investment in brainwashing.

        • blue peacock says:

          “…he has to lead his country to final victory.”

          Which may prove to be elusive in Ukraine. The US supply chain will take a few months to get in gear. The neocons have the bit and the Republicans are fully onboard as active cheerleaders.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            The US sending supplies/weapons doesn’t necessarily mean anything in terms of that stuff being effectively deployed against Russians. The Russians have taken out UKR fuel depots. Russia has been very successful in targeting and destroying supply and weapons caches as well as locations processing foreign volunteers (with many of those being killed their first day or two in country). Russia has also destroyed key railroad infrastructure.

            Then there is the issue of training UKR troops to use the weapons. That takes time and, again, Russia has been identifying and destroying locations where that kind of organized training tried to take place. Maybe some team of snake eaters can get a few Ukies trained on this or that weapons system before they are detected and killed or forced to flee, but that kind of operation only amounts to a nuisance for the Russians. This is especially true if what appears to be obvious is true – that the Russians are really only seeking to capture and keep the East and the South East. As the Russians consolidate their control of those regions, insurgency will be further diminished and then crushed out near completely.

            Then there is UKR corruption, which, IMO, is massive and should not be underestimated as an internal force working against the Zelensky govt, such that it is. There are rumors that weapons delivered to UKR from the US have been turned around and sold to Israeli arms dealers and other high bidders.

      • d74 says:

        @ TTG

        According to Wikipedia:

        Civilian casualties in Donbass due to war 2014-2020
        3,350 dead
        7,000 to 9,000 wounded
        1,414,798 internally displaced persons
        925,500 departures abroad

        Military casualties, Ukraine:
        4,100 dead
        10,000 wounded
        153 missing

        Military casualties, Donesk and Lugansk Militia
        5,650 dead
        13,000 wounded

        Military casualties, Russians
        2,000 dead
        3,200 wounded

        In my opinion the Ukrainian and Russian death tolls are underestimated.
        The battle of Debalstevo was fierce on both sides. It has been said without proof that the Ukrainian army lost 8000 to 20000 men. The Russian army had 2 battalions (tank and light paratrooper infantry) destroyed.
        The journalist Simon Ostrovsky has done a remarkable job of investigating Debalstevo.

        Many (unknown number) Russians intervened individually as volunteers or under contract to the militias.

        • TTG says:


          Yes, the casualties from the 2014-2015 war were massive. Casualties after that, even with the many flare ups in fighting, were far less.

    • Fred says:


      Which Galicia are you refering too, Eastern Galicia or Western? The Galicia half of modern Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, including Kiev. During roughly 3 centuries that “Ukraine” was controlled in part or whole by the Russian Empire, the Khanate of the Crimea, the Ottoman Empire and various other warlords. When that Poland was eventually partitioned by Prussia, Russia, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the later took control of Galicia (until her extinction after WW1). During WW2 the Western part of Galicia (Ukraine) fought alongside the Nazis while the Eastern (Russian side) fought against them. These people living in the two sides of Galicia, i.e. “Ukraine”, have been fighting each other for 3 centuries or more.

      “The truth is that the Washington neocons and Brussels, Scholz doing his angel of peace act notwithstanding, set out to trap the Russians into war and got exactly what they planned for.”

      You mean the neocons, who never got any other war right this century, were doing 5th dimensional chess mastering of everyone? My, if only that had gotten that done in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukriane (Maidan Square), Egypt, Hilary’s election, etc.

      The neocons were gloating that the Russian currency has collapsed all the way to, oh, look, it’s back to 85 rubles to the dollar, a huge change from the 73 it was a year ago. Where did the neocons say it would go? I’m sure Russia’s economy is so wrecked (unlike Ukraines with how many refugees leaving home?) they’ll collapse any day now.

  12. Poul says:

    “Resistance will continue unless Putin is willing to deport or kill the entire population”

    My impression is that there is no civilian population left in the smaller villages as they have been evacuated.

    Most houses are ruined so only those who want to live under Russian rule returns. It looks like World War II with Germans fleeing, never to return.

  13. Hutch says:

    Lavrov has offered India 15 million barrels of oil at usd35 per after the biden’s dty. Nsa tried to strong arm the indians into toeing toeing the line. I doubt the US of A can match that.

  14. Stevelancs says:

    I was looking for an article about what effect the war in Ukraine would have on the EU and GB financially when I found these paragraphs in an article by Michael Hudson from the 7th February … “The only way left for U.S. diplomats to block European purchases is to goad Russia into a military response and then claim that avenging this response outweighs any purely national economic interest. As hawkish Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, explained in a State Department press briefing on January 27: “If Russia invades Ukraine one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”[1] The problem is to create a suitably offensive incident and depict Russia as the aggressor.
    Nuland expressed who was dictating the policies of NATO members succinctly in 2014: “Fuck the EU.” That was said as she told the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine that the State Department was backing the puppet Arseniy Yatsenyuk as Ukrainian prime minister (removed after two years in a corruption scandal), and U.S. political agencies backed the bloody Maidan massacre that ushered in what are now eight years of civil war. The result devastated Ukraine much as U.S. violence had done in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a policy of world peace or democracy that European voters endorse.”

  15. aleksandar says:

    Sorry, my SITREP is less sexy

    Western Front
    Methodical destructions : volunteers recruitment centers, Khmelnitsky oil depot.
    Vasilkov Air Defense Control Center, Ternopil fuel depot and airport, and so on.
    Every day, critical Ukrainian war infrastructure is being degraded and destroyed – losing several oil depots and refineries per night will make the situation very difficult not only for the military, but also for the civilian economy.
    Railway hubs are also being targeted and destroyed, putting additional pressure on ability to supply the military.
    With no access to maritime trade and no fuel depot left, UKR will lost mobility capabilities.

    Withdrawal of FoR to Belarus.
    36th CAA remains on the front line.

    All the space taken over by UKR (which even boasted of having taken over Vyshgorod and Irpin, which FoR never occupied) is now a Kill Zone for the Russian ARTY, which will be able to methodically annihilate Kiev’s defending troops.
    It will be interesting to make a strategic analysis of the relevance of this deception maneuver after the war end and as soon as losses on both sides are known.

    East Kiev
    FoR withdrawal on a line Krutuy – Itchnia – Priluky
    Maneuver to reduce the width of front while continuing to control access to Kiev through ARTY.
    The 35th CAA (Combined Arms Army) with 8 brigades joined its recompletion zone in Belarus before redeployment and reinforcement of 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (3 BrMeca + 2 BrArty).
    Possible objective.
    Phase 1: conquest and cleaning of the Sumy salient.
    Phase 2: Junction with elements of the 2nd GMRD and line of attack from Priluky (50°35′35″ N – 32°23′15″ E ) to Okhtyrka (50°18′37″ N – 34°53′55″ E ).
    Then for the 35th CAA, Dombass or Poltava (49°35′37″ N – 34°32′26″ E).

    Yzium (49° 13′ N, 37° 15′ ) is entirely controlled by FoR.
    UKR counterattack conducted with 2 BrMeca towards the southern edges of the city.
    Blocked by FoR.
    One BrMeca ( 81st ? ) destroyed, no BDA for the other.
    Then FoR resumed the progression towards Kramatorsk where the bulk of the UKR forces remained, 54th BrMeca + 95th Azov Brigade + 24th BrMeca + 26th BrMoto (?) + logistic support elements.

    Cleaning of Rubijne by the FoR + FoRPL continues.
    Gradually the Rubijne – Purdivka – Voronove stranglehold tightened on Severodonetsk, whose LOC towards Kramatorsk was under fire from the ARTY FoR.
    FoRPL broke through :
    – UKR defense line and advanced to Hirske (48°44′ N – 38°30′ E).
    – UKR defense line held by UKR 26th BrMoto and advanced to Popasna (48°37′59″ N – 38°22′40″ E) where fighting for capture of this town continues.
    Possible objectives :
    Phase 1: After reduction of the Severodonesk salient and capture of Popasna, junction of FoRPL and FoR forces to conquer Artemivsk road junction (48 ° 26 ‘ N – 38 ° 43’ E )
    Phase 2: From Artemivsk, contribute from south to movement of encircling defense cluster UKR Kamatorsk/Slaviansk or conquest of Pokrovsk (48 ° 16′ N – 37 ° 11′ E)
    It seems that a part of UKR forces made a retreat towards Pokrovsk to create a 2nd line defense bastion with reinforcements coming from Kiev.

    FoRPD broke through UKR defense line (25th Azov brigade) and reached Novobakhmutovka (48°15’0″ N – 37°48’0″ E).
    This advance to north make 56 Br UKR situation entrenched at Avdijevka, half of which was already conquered by FoDNR, difficult in the long run because of risk of encirclement.

    FoRPD at Maryinka (47° 56′ North, 37° 30′ East) located on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk.
    Strong UKR concentration West exit of city to Geogrivska in strongpoints and defense lines held by Aidar neo-Nazi battalions.
    Further west, fighting continues to control road Marinka-Kurakhovo

    In the depth:
    Missile destruction of UKR fuel depot in Kremenchuk (49°04′04″ N – 33°25′13″ E )
    and strike on concentration of troops and military stuff in Dniepro and Poltava.

    Southern front
    1- EAST
    Strong resistance against FoRPD + Chechen + 58th CAA.
    The city is cut into 4 sectors, 2 on both sides of the central river.
    The northern sector is Kalminuski District being cleaned up.
    Azov entrenched in the Azovstal factory.
    Isolated, without logistical reinforcement, their calls for help ignored by Kiev, the loss of Marioupol is already a fact.
    According to Chechen and civilian sources, there may be fighting between the Azov extremists and regular troops, with the former preventing the latter from surrendering (TBC)

    Confused situation around Nikolaiev.
    The UKR tried again a raid on 28/03/2022 to bomb Kherson through the M14 which they control until Posad-Pokrovske.
    Light armor and MLRS without tank and Anti-aircraft protection.
    Spotted and treated by ARTY and Sukhoi Su-25.
    So 1 Ukrainian brigade became non-operational.
    Several strikes this week on UKR forces in the city including one today on a fuel depot and an ammunition depot.
    Without logistical support, its ammunition and fuel reserves destroyed, conducting suicide attacks, and given the volume of forces involved, the fall of Nikolaev is a matter of days.
    Perhaps for FoR, a change of objective with Kryvyl Rih as No. 1

    1 – Phase of reorganization and transfer of forces to Dombass with the cleaning of the Sumy pocket after abandoning the Kiev front.
    2 – Confirmation that the main objective is Dombass and not Kiev
    3 – Reallocation of forces and temporary halt of the progression on the secondary fronts Kiev, Nikolaiev, Zaporoje.
    3 – The Donbass kettle is soon closed, where the best troops, 20 to 30 000 UKRs are trapped.
    4 – Rosvguardia manage conquered territories.
    5 – Russians keep the strategic initiative.
    6 – This war in only a tiny part of Chinese -Russain « Grand Strategie » wich aim is dedollarisation.

    1 – On the Oryx disinformation ( read MI6/Bellingcat/OSDH )
    2 – Kiev
    Who can believe that we can take a city of 2,5 million inhabitants with 40 000 men?
    It is a tactical nonsense.

    • blue peacock says:

      3 – The Donbass kettle is soon closed, where the best troops, 20 to 30 000 UKRs are trapped.

      This has been forecast for a few weeks now. We’re over a month into the invasion. IMO, the previous perception was that Russia had a near peer conventional military force compared to the US. The fact that they can’t even roll Ukraine’s Donbass with supposedly a pro-Russia population says that perception is not warranted.

      In the next few months the US supply chain to Ukraine will get in gear. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine receives more longer-range standoff weapons too. Even if Donbass is miltarily dominated in the next couple weeks that’s not going to be the end of the war. A Ukraine with continuous resupply will keep at those Russian forces.

      • JohninMK says:

        The Ukrainian Army was probably the largest, best trained, most battle hardened army in Europe with by far the best AD. With a majority of its army, including its best troops, dug into multiple lines of fortifications facing Donbas that they had at least 6-7 years perfecting. That was a serious challenge for any current army. The limited still remaining Donbas population’s views are irrelevant given the amount of military involved.

        Given they have been fighting for nigh on 5 weeks with little respite with falling ammo and fuel stocks, it is unlikely that the UkA will be able to withstand the full onslaught of the Russian military that may about to be unleashed. Once destroyed there is little to stop them moving as far west as they choose to go at a speed of their choice.

        The Ukraine’s biggest problem now is probably fuel with most of their strategic and local reserves destroyed and their main refinery taken out at the weekend. Exponentially the countries internal combustion fleet of civilian, military transport both road, air and train is going to grind to a halt. Similarly with ammo and food.

        If US and NATO aid gets over the border it will be tough to get it much further, certainly not the 100s of miles to any front where it might have an effect. Especially with reducing UkA AD allowing the RuAF to roam more freely than now.

        How long it last will become a political not military question.

      • aleksandar says:

        1 – Forces engaged by Russia did not allow to conquer the Donbass quickly.
        As soon as Marioupol battle will be over, Russia can send 6000 -8 000 soldiers to Donbass front.
        Pro-russian population do what every population do during war, hide and wait.
        So far the Russians have no problems in conquered areas except minor incidents in Kherson.
        2 – There will certainly be a flow of Western weapons, but they have to arrive on the battlefield first.
        At some point if the situation becomes too tense, the Russians will simply blow up all the bridges over the Dnieper.
        Another problem UKR is clearly the lack of trained and experienced troops.
        These poor people mobilized and sent to front after 3 days of training are just cannon fodder
        Russians is able to add 50 000 soldiers and 50 000 from the Rosvguardia who are former military to the existing troops.
        The state of mind of the Russian people today is that we are on June 21, 1941. (True or not is another question).
        They will do whatever is needed.

    • JohninMK says:

      “Every day, critical Ukrainian war infrastructure is being degraded and destroyed – losing several oil depots and refineries per night will make the situation very difficult not only for the military, but also for the civilian economy.”

      The Kalomoisky refinery which fed those depots was knocked out on Saturday leaving Ukraine with only what fuel they have already.

  16. English Outsider says:

    TTG – maybe I’m over-reacting because I was so disappointed in Scholz and Macron. I was convinced the two of them would drive through some sort of settlement that would stop the shelling and at least make a start on allaying the Russian security fears. They didn’t.

    I’m what they call over here a “Eurosceptic”. That is, I mistrust Brussels and all its works. So for me to put my faith in Scholz and Macron, the two leading lights of the evil empire as we Eurosceptics regard it, and then to find they were at best busted flushes and at worst neocon accomplices, was particularly galling!

    That’s my personal prejudices laid out and I’m prepared to accept that it’s skewed how I look at the affair. But I try to put all that aside and to just look at where we are now.

    Whether we think the Russians have a case or not they’re not fooling around. They’re all in. And so far they haven’t got a scrap of what they were after before February 21st.

    In fact they’re worse off than before that date. Whatever the Russians were scared of from Europe before the 21st they’ve got ten times as much to be scared of now. We’re feeding weapons into the Ukraine for the express purpose of killing Russians. The press has been pumping up the war fever to a level never seen before. The Poles are talking of basing nuclear weapons. NATO’s going from strength to strength. And the Germans have gone full anti-Russian and are re-militarising.

    The Russians supplying them with the energy and materials they need to remilitarise. I’ve compared that with the time before Barbarossa, when the Russians were supplying the Germans with the raw materials for the arms that were soon to be used against them. I came across a comment on Martyanov’s site that puts it more in present day terms. It puts the thing as it seems to the Russians:-

    ““Is it smart on the part of Russians to export metals to Germany? Every single panzerfaust they delivered to Ukronazis is made using Russian metals and energy.”

    What can one say to that except that it’s true?

    So far the sanctions the Euros have tried have not succeeded in wrecking the Russian financial system or economy. They believed they could bring Russia to heel and they’ve failed. Now they’re back-pedalling.

    Bit late for that. The Euros haven’t succeeded in wrecking the Russian economy. But if it suits the Russians Russia can wreck theirs. What we’re doing right now is waiting to see whether it does suit the Russians. The blowback from the sanctions war is already great in Germany and in Europe generally. Even so, I think the people in charge in Berlin and Brussels still don’t have the faintest idea of the risks they’re running should the Russians decide to strike back.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Here is a link to a text translation of a very recent speech at the Russian Ministry of Defense. It explains Russian justification for the invasion and, more germane to discussion here, the objective(s) of the invasion.

      • English Outsider says:

        It’s difficult to see what else the Russians could have done. Leave it a year or two and they’d have been in an even worse position.

        As for our own leaders, I suspect they miscalculated. Provoke a Russian response and then go for a quick kill of the Russian economy and financial system. Doesn’t seem to have worked. And the rest of the world cold shouldering them on sanctions. So I think this is a dangerous time. Our leaders will try to find some way of doubling down.

        Agree with what you say above. We’ve been led by our respective governments into a disastrous foreign policy. But as you say “those people always get away with even the most massive of criminal deceptions and screw-ups .” Yup, they’ll get away with it. Nor sure the rest of us will, not this time round.

        • Poul says:

          Full war time mobilization is the key to evaluate Russian commitment.
          Else they can’t call up reserves and increase the army. The Russians have the equipment but not manpower for a long attrition fight.

    • tom67 says:

      Hi English Outsider
      Thank you for your comment and here my take looking at things from Germany:
      1. The “remilitarisation” is all smoke and mirror to escape US pressure. Case in point is the stuff they actually send to Ukraine. As the Russophobic press points out time and again the army supply consists of seriously degraded stuff from the old East German army. The strella antiaircraft rockets where in cases so molded that Bundeswehr soldiers could end enter the storage facilites only in special clothing.
      As to the 100 billion that Scholz announced to rearm the Bundeswehr: the only real outlay that has been decided on is the purchase of a lot of F35. A smart move to make some senators from Lockheed happy. There´s also talk of purchasing US anti rocket systems. Same reasoning. The Russians see through this and surely don´t get very scared.
      2. Germany has 40 000 US soldiers on her territory. All internal communication is constantly monitored and there´s dirt on every major political figure.
      3. Cutting Germany off of Russian gas and oil would result in an unimaginable economic catastrophy. Germany heats with Russian gas and feeds her industry with it. The big shots of industry have publicly warned the government not to join a boycot. There are no LGP terminals. So there´s pressure from the US and there´s prressure from below. Had a talk with a well informed economic journalist this afternoon and she is certain Germany will not forgoe Russian gas
      4. Through her friends and agents in the press the US and GB are putting the heat on the German goverment. Theerefore Bucha.My prediction is Berlin will go through the motions and find ever new token santions a.s.o. to appease the US and GB. I don´t think they will commit economic suicide.
      5. The Russians know all of that very well too. Remember how Putin said gas will be sold only for Rubles? And then how Scholz claimed that the Russians had caved and allowed Euros nevertheless? In reality the new situation looks like that: Germany transfers Euros to Moscow. There they will be converted to Rubles. The Rubles are then credited to Gasprom.

      Will this go on for ever? I don´t know. For now it looks like Germany will – Bucha or not – continue her Kabuki dance.

      • English Outsider says:

        Yes. Agree.

        I make the usual distinction between the politicians and the people whose lives they control. For me, living in what’s still to an extent deep country in England, the metropolitan Germany I know has always been something of a fairy tale place, with concerts and operas easily to hand, first class company and – you’ll forgive the well-worn cliché but to some of us it matters – those superbly run and so gemütlich beer gardens. What more could one want?

        Some honest politicians, I suppose. Or competent would do. I can’t for the life of me see how the Scholz/Baerbock show can qualify there. We’re going to punish you so much it’ll hurt, they’re saying to Russia. But you won’t of course do the same back. That combination of the arrogant and the dumb our various political elites do so well.

        Johnson’s merely our very own chicken hawk Churchill. No more to him than that. With Scholz/Baerbock at your end and Johnson at ours, and the Washington neocons eagerly closing in for the kill, this was never really going to end well for your country or mine.

        You do not mention the state of public opinion in Germany. I’ve not been over since Covid but keep in touch. Seems to me that most in Germany and most in the UK are innocent as babes unborn of the true state of affairs in the Ukraine. Neo-nazis? Russian propaganda. Neo-nazis permeating and controlling the Ukrainian political and military apparatus? Just fantasy. NATO diligently training up neo-nazis? Disgraceful allegation. And few in Germany or England know of the back history.

        So our politicians and our media have a blank slate on which to write their story of the Ukrainian war. Most trust the story they write. That gives the politicians a free hand to screw things up yet further. We wait to see how they do it.

        • Tom67 says:

          Thank you for your kind comments about Germany. For your unkind ones regarding the quality of our political leaders I couldn´t agree more. Regarding your man Johnson though he seems to me to have the right instincts but he can´t put them into action. At least his stance on the Corona scare seemed to me from the start eminently sensible. When he learned that people dying of covid are on average older than the average dying age in GB he is supposed to have quipped:
          “Get corona, live longer.”

  17. Christian J. Chuba says:

    “Pol Pot has nothing on that miserable little SOB from Saint Petersburg.”

    Accepting everything from Ukraine at face value encourages fakes. Ukraine has been releasing verifiable fake information from the start of the war, the ‘ghost of Kiev’ is one I can remember off the top of my head.

    If these are real atrocities, then then authorize a U.N. investigation and let’s see if Russia vetoes it. Ukraine has not called for any independent investigation, have they?

    • TTG says:

      Christian J. Chuba,

      Early yesterday, Ukraine called for a full investigation by the International Criminal Court. The UN secretary-General also called for an investigation.

      • Christian J. Chuba says:

        TTG, I did a search for investigations on Bucha … I found a reference to the U.N. Secretary and Germany calling for one on 4/3. I even found a reference to Russia calling for a U.N Security Council meeting ‘on the matter’ but I did not find any reference to Ukraine calling for an investigation, Not saying it doesn’t exist, but I cannot find it.

        I’m not trying to be the ‘aha guy’, it is just that this is the first conflict where I do not trust any reporting on it and I have to resort to reading in between the lines.
        Random recall, Snake Island is another example where the report from Ukraine was amplified and incorrect. Yes, there was the defiant transmission but the guy who made it was captured (no shame in that). Zelensky was ready to give them all posthumous awards.

        • TTG says:

          Christian J. Chuba

          “I call on the International Criminal Court and international organizations to send their missions to Bucha and other liberated cities and villages of Kyiv region, in order, in cooperation with Ukrainian law enforcement officers, to collect as thoroughly as possible all the evidence of Russian war crimes,” the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine quotes the words of Kuleba, said by him on the air of the British radio Times UK radio, on Sunday.

  18. Leith says:

    I don’t believe (or maybe don’t want to believe) that it was Russian paratroopers or other Russian troops that committed the atrocities we see in Bucha. The torture and murder of the 16 (or 18?) Ukrainians in the cellar of that dacha there seems more like the work of Chechens. Or maybe they were victims of SVR or FSB interrogations. Plus the many bodies outside shot in the head with their hands tied seems like the work of SVR kill squads similar, albeit on a smaller scale, to what the NKVD did at Katyn Forest.

    The alleged rape in Mariupol of ten-year olds (and younger) may well have been done by Chechens. The same for murders of civilians or POWs, but the suspect list of murderers there would have to include LDNR troops as there are some neo-NAZI militias within their group. But most of the civilian corpses in Mariupol can be blamed on Russian artillery shelling and air strikes.

    • JohninMK says:

      The fundamental problems with Bucha are the time line and state of the bodies, with video support out there.

      Mar 30: Russian troops leave Bucha
      Mar 31: Mayor of Bucha announces town ‘liberated’, makes no mention of atrocities.
      Apr 1/2: Azov Nazis enter Bucha
      Apr 3: Ukr MinDef publishes video of ‘Russian’ atrocities

      The bodies lying in the street did not appear to have been there for 3/4 days as they showed no sign of rigor mortis, liver blotching and, according to others the blood looks wrong, plus 3 day old corpses would be bloated and smell terribly.

      • Leith says:

        John in MK –

        Problems with your timeline:

        There are no indications that Azov troops were in Bucha. There was a small Azov Special Ops Detachment in Kiev, but my understanding is that they were in the fighting on the right bank of the Dnieper River near Brovary and further east. If you have info otherwise please provide a link (one not attributable to Russian hype).

        There were still isolated pockets of Russian troops in or around Bucha, Irpin, & Gostomel up until the 1st. That is when Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of the Ukrainian military for the Kiev region, announced that Bucha had ‘mostly’ been retaken.

        Photos of the dead in Bucha were on twitter on the 1st and widely published on twitter and elsewhere on the internet on the 2nd.

        Ukr MinDef did the right thing by waiting until they could verify before publishing a formal announcement of the atrocities.

        Earlier photos back on 10 March showed 67 civilians being buried in a mass grave in Bucha. Plus on 30 March Human Rights Watch published a piece on atrocities against civilians in Bucha.

        Up until the 31st the Mayor of Bucha was in hiding, otherwise he also might have been killed. Yuri Prilipko, the mayor of nearby Gostomel, was killed after “Russian forces shot him while he was distributing food and medicine to civilians.” And “Olga Sukhenko, the mayor of the nearby village of Motyzhin, was found dead along with her family after several days of forced disappearance by Russian soldiers.” In any case when Bucha’s mayor first came out of hiding on the 31st there was no way he could have known what was going on throughout his town of over 10 square miles with a population of 36,000. And the Bucha Raion (district), of which Bucha City is the capital, is much larger in area and people. Were the bodies shown on that highway within the city limits or outside the city but still within the Bucha District?

        • Leith says:

          John in MK:

          PS – Another problem with that timeline:

          There is the fact that satellite imagery from 11 March, three weeks ago, shows bodies strewn on that road when Bucha was still under Russian control. The bodies appeared to be in the same locations as they were when filmed several days ago.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Amazing that the bodies didn’t bloat or decay or turn those awful colors since March 11th. Equally amazing how the clothes are not torn by bullets. They look like they’re just sleeping instead of being in weird splayed and twisted postures. The ones that are ass up have clean trousers as opposed to having voided themselves from shock and death. There appears to be some blood here and there that defies science by staying red for days or weeks instead of turning brown. Also amazing is that no one bothered to move them off the road, cover them or bury them. Nope just driving around the well preserved “bodies” for almost a month.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            You’re trying way too hard to absolve Putin’s war criminals. The weather around Kyiv has been cold the last month, often below freezing, helping to preserve forensic evidence. I also doubt your ability to make forensic determinations from the available photos and videos. Yes no one moved them off the road. The Russians even left their own dead behind. Why would they bother doing anything for dead Ukrainians? The Ukrainians undoubtedly feared being shot by the Russians while trying to bury the dead. What a fine and honorable army… not. Anyways, ICC and other investigations will document the truth. There are hundreds of dead civilians, buried and unburied who deserve justice.

          • Leith says:

            Eric –

            Are you doing a drive-by autopsy? I saw no blood at all, red or brown, but that is not surprising as a bullet to the back of the head would kill instantly and stop the heart from pumping. And that single bullet, the favorite tool of the NKVD and their follow-on agencies would not show torn clothing. Besides how do you get “torn” clothing from bullets? Maybe from 50cal or larger, but rarely if at all from 9mm or 7.62, 5.56, 5.45 etc. How can you tell their trousers are clean especially if they have been laying out in the weather for awhile?

            In any case there are many witnesses.

            But thank you for not bringing up the whopper that some are claiming. The one about the corpses in Bucha being live crisis actors who were supposedly seen rising from the dead after the videocam vehicle had passed by. And thanks for not promoting the slanderous lie that the victims were pro-Russia so were killed by the Ukrainian Army.

            As I said above, I don’t believe those murders on the road or the tortures & murders in that cellar in Stoyanka (near Bucha) were done by Russian grunts from line units. IMHO they have all the earmarks of the SVR or FSB.

            BTW Bucha is not unique, there are reports of similar killings being found near Chernihiv east of the Dnieper. Only God knows what horrors are happening in Kherson, Melitopol, the Donbas, and other occupied areas; or in the outskirts of Sumy, Konotop, and Kharkiv.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          “There are hundreds of dead civilians, buried and unburied who deserve justice.”

          Yes there are. In Iraq starting in 2003, at wedding parties, in any war. I reject your support of the UKR nazis who have committed documented atrocities, most recently shooting/torturing Russian POWs. Your spin on events, the party line, impresses me not; not even a little.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            ….and, I’ll remind you, TTG, that not so long ago that we could forget, the US policy was to support moderate head choppers who, (surprise!) it turns out were aligned with hardcore head choppers, in Syria because we wanted to re-make the middle east in a way favorable to Israel. If that’s not a war crime, I don’t know what is. The Russians put an end to all of that. Thankfully, there is still a country on the planet with a sense of consistent and decent principles.

            Your neocon/Borg/globalist friends are going to lose in the Ukraine. It’s just about a done. They pushed this war and now they’ve got it. All the propaganda in the world isn’t going to change the facts on the ground. I just hope they aren’t crazy and stupid enough to commence a nuclear war in the process.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            The Ukrainian government launched an investigation of that video of the shooting/torturing of Russian POWs.

            “Ukraine says it will investigate unverified reports that its soldiers tortured Russian troops captured in the fighting as a result of Moscow’s invasion. “We take such cases extremely seriously…. There will be an investigation…. We do not torture POWs,” Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in a post on Telegram on March 28.”

            “Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Iryna Venediktova said the video could not be taken at face value.”We need proof,” she said in an interview with Sky News. “If militaries from [the] Ukrainian side are guilty, we will investigate them and take them to court.”

            I seriously doubt Moscow will do the same about all the tortures/rapes/murders in Bucha and other towns around Kyiv.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Yeah sure. Of course UKR will investigate torture and killing of POWs. I feel totally reassured that justice will prevail. In the same vein, Russia has called for the international community to investigate the Bucha alleged massacre. Russia made a very public statement about that with no mincing of words. You should know that. So what’s the problem?

        • JohninMK says:

          Although Azov was in the area, see below, I was wrong, I should have said “Ukrainian Security Service officers” who are the Ukrainian KGB, another “follow on agency of the NKVD” as you mention in your comment below. An organisation that has a very unsavory reputation earned in Donbas since 2014.

          – Ukrainian soldiers from the Azov battalion walked through the remnants of a Russian military convoy in the recently liberated town of Bucha on Saturday, just outside the capital after the Russians withdrew.

          – The mass grave near St Andrei’s church. The trench was dug by the municipal authorities in consultation with Russian troops, to bury civilians who died during the exchange of fire between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. And this trench does not date from 30 or 31 March, but from mid-March, as this video from 13 March shows, where the bodies were decently buried. The video also clearly states that the people buried died as a result of the bombing. So there is nothing to do with civilians executed by the Russian army. According to the video, there are 67 bodies in this mass grave.

          Finally, even though they may be under great pressure to do so, all the resources of US military and other intel agencies don’t seem to be able to, or are unwilling to, confirm/or deny what happened.

          If you look at it from a ‘who gains’ perspective it certainly isn’t the Russians, who seem to have tried not to kill civilians, its the Ukrainians, in their efforts to get more help.

    • d74 says:

      I don’t understand.
      Chechen are Russian. If atrocities are Chechens, then atrocities are Russians.

      Chechen in arms (‘Kadyrovtsy’) are not in the Russian army. They are Home Gards. But here they ‘work’ on russian command.
      From what we have seen of their actions in Syria, they are disciplined, absolutely not Bashi-bazouk.
      ( See: , Reputation and atrocities )
      On the other hand, their small size does not allow them to be everywhere.

      There is a strong presumption that Bucha is a false flag. While some Ukrainian crimes are true, and perhaps some Russian crimes.
      For now, this rise in long-term damaging violence is an informational issue that should not be open to wild speculation.

      In war, human nature being what it is, the right question is whether the crimes are repressed by the authorities of the perpetrators’ country.

      • Leith says:

        D74 –

        The Chechens that were sent to Syria by Russia were in a Russian Military Police Battalion. They were not a separate Chechen led unit. They wore Russian uniforms and were under Russian command. They were not there to fight. They patrolled pacified areas.

        There were some bashi-bazouk types from Chechnya and Dagestan in ISIS within Syria. Most infamous was Abu Omar al-Shishani and his al-Muhajireen Brigade of Chechens and Dagestanis. They fought initially for al-Qaida in Syria and later for ISIS.

        • JohninMK says:

          That’s how I understand it too.

          On the other side I have seen video of Chechen units fighting on the side of the Government. A much more lean and mean group, younger too, on the front line working very effectively.

    • Ishmael Zechariah says:

      re: The alleged rape in Mariupol of ten-year olds (and younger) may well have been done by Chechens. and ” The torture and murder of the 16 (or 18?) Ukrainians in the cellar of that dacha there seems more like the work of Chechens.

      What is the basis of your attribution of such actions to Chechens?
      Ishmael Zechariah

      • Leith says:

        Ishmael Z –

        I meant no offense to Islam. During (and after) the 2nd Chechen War there were many reports of rape by Kadyrov’s militias against other Muslims within Chechnya. My attribution to the Kadyrovtsy is admittedly speculative based on their fearsome reputation and the yet to be proven claims on Ukrainian twitter of child rape by them.

  19. Sam says:


    Elon Musk buys $3 billion stake (9.2%) in Twitter and is now the platform’s largest shareholder.


    Elon ran a few threads on Twitter about freedom of speech and if Twitter cancel culture was appropriate. He did this after he had purchased the stock. Maybe over the next several months he’ll start to have influence. Possibly even a board seat. He’s got a battle ahead with the wokesters.

  20. SRW says:

    Is this the major reason for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?

    From Price Wars by Robert Russell, copy write 2022. A damn interesting book. This is just one item in it.

    In 2012 enormous gas reserves – 2.3 trillion cubic meters – were discovered under Ukraine’s share of the Black Sea. Russia tried to negotiate access to the deposits, but the talks fell through. Then, in January 2013, Ukraine struck a deal with Royal Dutch Shell to start drilling in eastern Ukraine, where another major deposit of gas had been discovered. In April 2013, the Ukrainian energy and coal industry minister declared that the projects in Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea around Crimea would soon start producing so much natural gas that the country would no longer need to import it from Russia or anywhere else. In fact, Ukraine could become a net exporter to Europe – competing with Russia by 2020.
    If these plans came to fruition, Putin’s leverage over Europe would evaporate. He had no intention of overseeing the same unraveling of energy dominance that the USSR had suffered in the 1980’s. But Putin still had time. Ukraine’s plan for energy independence had yet to become reality.

    • TTG says:


      No. That would mean this is all about economics. I do believe Putin is sincere when he talks about Russian security as his number one concern. He’s also sincere about his desires to restore a greater Russia whether there was gas under Ukraine or not.

      • JohninMK says:

        I agree, Russia had no economic need for more gas.

        At the time Russia seized Crimea, uppermost in their minds in Moscow would have been preventing NATO getting hold of the military facilities there, followed by the preservation of Russian lives following the events in Odessa and Donbas.

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