This night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces once again struck Crimea. Four Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles were fired from two Su-24M bombers in the direction of Saki airfield. Aviation at the base was already dispersed on alert, but the target was not planes. Ukrainian forces managed to hit the administrative building, but at the time of the alarm it was empty, which allowed them to avoid losses.
Another thing is interesting about this attack: what the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ tactics became during the attacks. All yesterday, Ukrainian aviation was taking off and landing. Periodically, ADM-160 MALD decoys were launched from the MiG-29 and Su-27.
It is for this reason that aviation danger has been repeatedly declared in Crimea. Decoys are displayed as real missiles, allowing the enemy to mislead air defense systems and determine the location and time of their reaction.
At the time of one of these launches, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to deliver a real strike with “Neptune” on Cape Tarkhankut or Evpatoria, but the missile was shot down by a MiG-31 fighter. And by the evening, in anticipation of the launch of the Storms, five Beaver-type UAVs, which are less noticeable than the same Mugin-5 UAVs, were sent to the Crimea from Koblevo. They flew along the western coast of Crimea and went on patrol near Novofedorovka, where they were shot down.
A couple of hours later, two Su-24M bombers attacked Saki, which was actively tracked by drones the night before and last night, as well as by a NATO satellite constellation (more than 10 images were taken over three days).
But the essence of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is obvious: after the weakening of the fleet, the main task is to suppress air defense in Crimea, and this can be done by disrupting the combat control of air defense and aerospace forces units. That is why the emphasis is primarily on command posts, which should be kept in mind during further attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Comment: This is Rybar’s account and assessment of recent strikes on targets in Crimea. This and his map are pretty damned good. Another Russian war blogger called “Kremlin Snuff Box” cited sources in the General Staff and the Russian Ministry of Defense as he claimed 23 Russians died in the attacks including five high ranking Russian officers and nine special forces soldiers. A headquarters complex was hit that severely weakened the entire Crimean air defense system.
I think this is going to be the direction of Ukrainian offensive operations well in 2024. They will continue to execute these methodical and well planned strikes, primarily on Crimea. Back in November, a missile strike hit the Askold, a new cruise missile carrier, in the Zaliv shipyard. The Askold was undergoing her final trials when it was hit. And the Novocherkassk was completely destroyed in another missile strike in late December. All these strikes are characterized by a use of missiles, drones and decoys to defeat the formidable Russian air defense network guarding Crimea, Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge. I think it’s a smart strategy. Along the front they will be defending with little, if any, offensive moves. I don’t think the Ukrainians have any choice other than to assume a defensive stance right now. Granted they are extracting a heavy price from the Russians as they continue their Zerg rushes, but I hope the Ukrainians don’t hold on positions like Avdiivka with the same obstinacy as they did in Bakhmut and Severodonetsk, but I’m not holding my breath.
Below is the ISW take on these strikes in Crimea. It uses Rybar as one of the primary sources and generally says the same thing, just with a lot more words. There are some additional details like the satellite imagery of the results of the strike at the Russian ammunition depot near Hryshyne. Those images show tremendous accuracy, but the depot must have been bereft of ammo. There’s no evidence of secondary explosions, just holes in the roofs of most of the structures. Disappointing, but this could also mean that the Russians may no longer be able to maintain vast stockpiles of ammunition. Keep it up, boys, keep it up.
———
Ukrainian forces are conducting a multi-day strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and have successfully struck several targets throughout the peninsula. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck an administrative building at the Russian airfield in occupied Saky, Crimea with up to four Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the night of January 5 to 6. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed five Ukrainian drones and four missiles over the Black Sea and Crimea on the night of January 5 to 6 and six Ukrainian Neptune missiles over the northwestern Black Sea on January 6. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk thanked Ukrainian pilots for successfully striking targets at the Saky airfield but did not specify if he was referring to Ukrainian strikes on January 4, 5, or 6. Oleshchuk posted satellite imagery showing the target of the reported successful Ukrainian strike at the Saky airfield, although ISW is currently unable to identify what the target was. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on January 6 that the GUR, Ukrainian Air Force, and Ukrainian forces conducted a complex special operation that struck Russian radar positions at the Saky airfield and an equipment depot near Hryshyne (60km northeast of Yevpatoria) on January 4. GUR posted satellite imagery showing damage to the Russian ammunition depot near Hryshyne. Ukrainian officials and sources have reported that Ukrainian forces have also struck an air defense radar system and a communications center in Yevpatoria responsible for coordinating Russian air defense operations in occupied Crimea, ammunition warehouses near Pervomaiske (82km north of Simferopol), and a Russian command post near Sevastopol in strikes since January 4. Ukrainian and Russian reporting indicates that Ukrainian missiles and drones are penetrating Russian air defenses in occupied Crimea and have successfully struck some intended targets.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are conducting strikes aimed at degrading the Russian air defense umbrella over occupied Crimea. ISW will not assess the intent of the current Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian rear areas in occupied Crimea at this time. Ukrainian forces conducted a strike campaign against Russian military infrastructure, headquarters, logistics routes, and Black Sea Fleet (BSF) assets in summer 2023 that pushed Russian naval operations out of the western part of the Black Sea and that aimed to degrade the Russian military’s ability to use Crimea as a staging and rear area for defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2024
TTG
BTW, I assume Russia is employing the same methodical planning in their continuing missile/drone strikes across Ukraine. The difference lies in the apparent inaccuracy of Russian missiles against the chosen targets, the effectiveness of Western air defense systems and, most importantly, an effective and dynamic deployment and employment of Ukrainian air defense assets. They remain a moving target.
You’re trying to make it look as though the Ukrainians are doing well and the truth is they most certainly are not doing well. They are doing horribly. So are the Russians. This is just a brutal, wasteful, stupid fight between losers who steal everything for themselves while the entire world around them goes rapidly to hell, with lots of killing and irreparable injury and displacement and that’s all it is. Representing either of the parties as being better than the other because he is a nimble jaunty killer with agile updated tech is like auditioning for a role as a lunatic us air force general, wheelchair bound ex-nazi secretary of state, or ossified old geezer field marshal in one of Stanley Kubrick’s films. It’s like discussing who the best porn star these days or which of Jeffrey Epstein’s pedophile rich friends has the nicest smile and coolest haircut.
The only thing to do with the whole lot of them is to send them an automatically refilling lifetime prescription for thorazine, haloperidol and some strong barbiturates. Start by arresting everyone at the Pentagon, State department, Whitehouse, CIA, NSA, and continue to Whitehall, Downing Street, Buckingham palace, GCHQ, etc and end up putting the Kremlin in chains after getting everyone found at the Lubyanka in the back of a paddy wagon.
F&L,
This war is reminding everyone just how abominable and destructive a real war is. Perhaps it will give China pause about a military invasion of Taiwan. Such a war should scare the crap out of us as well. The only ones who this won’t effect are jihadi terrorists and Putin’s Kremlin.
China has no intention to invade Taiwan.
They will use “death by 1000 cuts”.
Ruin Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
Offer better products cheaper.
Done in no more than 10 or 15 years.
Modern China is confucian not communist.
Never forget that war is the last resort because war disrupt ” World’s Harrmony”
aleksandar,
A far better approach for all. Under the newest US strategic concept, this falls under competition and short of confrontation. The Kremlin would have been far wiser to follow a similar approach. Too bad Putin was feeling his mortality.
“Modern China is confucian not communist.”
LOL of course; and Xi is the most confucian of all the communist party members.
TTG
Russia tried that approach from 1991 to 2014.
Nuland’s cookies changed everything.
@Fred
Being “soaked” in Chinese culture (though not reading ideograms) I would tend to agree with aleksandar.
Communism is only a thin veneer on this ancient civilisation.
And Taoists are also very suspicious of the way of arms:
Truly, it is because arms are instruments of evil, which for ever are loathed by all beings, that one who has the Way has no concern with them.
At home a nobleman values the left as the place of honour, but when he bears arms, he values the right as the place of honour.
This is not to say that they are not ruthless when they are at it, at the Battle of Changping in 260 BC the Qin captured and executed the whole army of the Zhao, 400 000 soldiers.
An interesting point is that this came about because the Qin “special services” had managed to provoke the nomination of an utterly incompetent Marshal in chief.
” The only ones who this won’t effect are jihadi terrorists and Putin’s Kremlin.”
Plus Lindsey Graham and John Bolton.
As Chairman, CEO and only member of the Neutralist Association of the US, I must thank you for making the case for a neutralist foreign policy.
We have been on a long decline since WWII and it continues.
All,
Since this thread is about China please permit me to weigh in on the Chinese film I am currently watching – The Battle at Lake Changjin(2021).
It’s about Chinese soldiers fighting US soldiers during the Korean war. I’m finding it very interesting on several fronts. First of all – the last time I checked out Chinese softpower/propaganda was when I watched Wolf Warrior 2(2017) which I found to be nowhere close to hollywood blockbusters in quality. It sucked, but TBALC is much much better. Better special effects, better acting, better storytelling.
All this to say that I think that China is advancing quickly when it comes to softpower. For me, TBALC is as big a deal as SMIC fabbing a 7nm CPU.
Lake Changjin AKA Chosin Reservoir. ChiComs lost 30,000 KIA/WIA there. Plus another 20,000 dead or crippled by frostbite. Many of those were former soldiers of Chiang Kai-shek who had been captured, ‘re-educated’, and sent to die in Korea to prove their loyalty to Mao.
This is a sad but typical case of various very dumb people, who are exceedingly easy to find here in the US. They read or view the hugely negative propaganda about Putin and that’s why they fall in love with the man – because to them, to be violent, cruel and all powerful is an ideal, it’s bliss, it’s the answer to their pathetic loser lives. Nevermind whether the stories are true. Do you want to see Putin lose his popularity? Easy – just get the US and UK propaganda mills to create someone with a much more sinister reputation and that person will be adored and worshipped and the imbeciles will forget all about Putin. It’s Trump’s secret in case you need reminding – he’s a crude, cruel, criminal or borderline spoiled rotten ignorant idiot so he goes over real big in America, where no one goes to anything resembling mass these days unless it’s a mass-shooting.
Question 1 on the new US Citizenship test.
Given a choice would you prefer to be (?):
A) Just plain god-awful stupid and of course rich.
B) God awful mean and gruesomely cruel but plenty stupid as s*it too, the definition of feral when it comes to learning anything, but nearly drowning and swimming hard up to my eyeballs in pacific oceans of money and that good stuff on pornhub too now that I think of it.
C) Just the way I am thank you very much.
U.S. boxer Johnson, Canadian ice hockey player Leipsic get Russian citizenship.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-boxer-johnson-canadian-ice-hockey-player-leipsic-get-russian-citizenship-2024-01-09/
@F&L
They read or view the hugely negative propaganda about Putin and that’s why they fall in love with the man
Wow! With powers like those you should think about forging some Rings of Power yourself, then you could control all us idiots a lot easier than CNNFOXCIA and the White House.
So the Ukrainian AF used limited assets available to attack a stationary target – an empty building. But they used a bunch of decoys first.
Needed, of course, is a Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base? LOL who the hell is going to pay for that? Has anyone at the ISW looked at Europe’s economy lately, or our own border?
As for future wars, what AAA defenses are there available in Norfolk, San Diego, Bremerton, or amongst our Pacific ‘allies’ bases? A few cruise missiles would easily put dry docks, floating (in short supply) or otherwise, out of commission. Along with a lot of other critical infrastructure. Admin buildings are a whole lot easier to replace.
Fred,
The empty warehouse was indeed nothing, but the air defense radars and the communications center controlling air defense throughout Crimea were well worth the effort. In the last two years, Ukraine has started rebuilding her defense industrial base. They’re doing pretty well with drones and making good progress with their Hrom and Neptune missiles. The EU is concentrating on investing in the base as well. I just hope they don’t forget Ukraine still needs ammo.
I think our Naval ports are best protected by Aegis ships when needed. But you raise a good question. Are we watching for such things? We didn’t spot that Chinese balloon until it was here.
Fred… Excellent Points…Use the Missle Frigates already in Ports..or Put them in Place..Activated..Now.. Who Says those Shipyards have not already Been Pinged..Following Surface Ships..In and Out…?
Jim
.
I have to Remember that Ukraine was Bragging right up until Russia invaded it…that UKRAINE was Chinas Gateway to Europe …and The Chinese Were All Over the place,,Taking Ukraine..Equipment Back to China.
.Taking over Factory’s…Getting Large Areas of Land..For Grain..corn..and Pig Farming..
Much Like they Have done in the United States,,,Russia Had to Intervene. in The
CCPs..Rampage in Ukraine..
Its Common knowledge All the Corruption Involved in This Matter..Russia has Currently lost up to 85 Percent of its Troops there…350,00 Known..and Reported by many Sources…up to Half a Million By Now..
The West..United States and Britian ,,and Most NATO..Have Made sure China..still Has a Strong Hand…and its Still..China Uber Alles..In the CCP Mind.. See Todays activitys over Taiwan..All The Strategic,,Island Hopping.. The SIZE..of The CCCP
Military…NOT Involved in Any Current WAR…Like Russia.
If You Analyze Any Matter..Do It Honestly..and Do Your Research..
Jim
jim,
China was developing Ukraine’s ports as a vital part of their Belt-Road Initiative. i don’t know if they gave up on that dream or not.
TTG….
We were there..all over the place,,at that time.. USA and Brits..
.We did the Rebuilding…for The CCP.. I tend to agree with
Longfellow..All The UKA..Has to
do..is PUSH the Buttons..
BTW..The Russian Military Has Suffered The Loss of 16 General
Officers of Various Ranks…And One Admiral..
At Some point..Western Nations Will Understand..the TRUTH.
First Hand,,and I Believe..Catastrophic..
jim
TTG,
Somewhat ironically, the anti-interventionists (opposed to US/NATO involvement in Ukraine) like to point to what they believe is a growing relationship between Russia and China (and an imagined emerging BRICS) as “evidence” of the stupidity of western foreign policy. IMO, that is just more of the ubiquitous shabby debate club argumentation.
China is gong to accomplish its Belt & Road plan regardless of who it needs to be friends. If Ukraine is sovereign, then Ukraine and China will be friends. If Russia prevails, then Russia will a friend – but China was always going to strengthen its relationship with at least one of those countries and most likely both.
Many of the anti-interventionists – particularly the Eurotrash variety, but also their kindred spirits in the US, Canada and Australia – hate the US and actually like China (or at least downplay the negatives of that regime and model). These same people tend to defend Hamas as well; lots of intersectionality among internet malcontents/socialists/rabble.
Thank you Joe Biden and the rest of you politicians for sending more of these semi-half-cro-magnons to us in NY City by the hundreds of buses-full, so many in fact that the mayor declared a state of emergency. They invented the light bulb, founded semiconductor electronics and launched the Hubble telescope if I have my facts straight. So our future and our children’s is secure.
Video clips at 2 links below.
https://t.me/infantmilitario/116897
Inmates at Cuenca’s Turi prison are defying Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, holding prison guards hostage and armed with guns and knives, following widespread unrest in the country following the president’s declaration of a state of emergency.
https://t.me/infantmilitario/116907
Masked men take over the premises of the Ecuadorian television channel TC Televisora in Guayaquil during a live broadcast.
This action is a response to the state of emergency declared in Ecuador after a drug trafficker escaped from prison.
Other news on the Defense of (sacred) Democracy:
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-police-arrest-mps-andrzej-duda-donald-tusk-mariusz-kaminski-maciej-wasik/
That’ll teach those politicians to oppose a man of principle.
Fred – Let us Ketchup with our defenders of said sacred Democracy, the article link below includes fascinating details as to who knew they didn’t have to tell who else what they didn’t know about whoever when.
For example, Charley Brown knew, or more properly “Among those who knew about the situation was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Charles Brown,” citing the article. That’s a minor detail and the article, informative as it is, missed entirely what is in my very humble opinion the whole point of this – and it is a true reason to celebrate and a happy belated Yule and New Years tiding indeed! To wit: the truth of the matter behind these recent fearsome war-panic headlines of the past several years (as reported in our perpetually lying and skin-crawlingly creepy press) is that all these emergencies – from the South China Sea to Taiwan to Ukraine and Crimea to Gaza and Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran – in fact are in reality of minor importance .. because otherwise the Defense Secretary wouldn’t be taking such a nonchalant approach to his duties, would he? Of course not. This is excellent news, and it’s not being reported in the press or on TV or in the blogosphere, is it? No. But you learn of it here from the obscure F&L, in a reply to a comment by Fred. Our Democracy, Fred observes correctly, is sacred — and nonchalance on duty when entrusted with its defense can only indicate that all is well and regarding security and safety of world trade etc — there is no reason to worry and reports to the contrary are devilish exaggeration and foul play in service of some undetermined as yet agenda, such as selling newspaper subscriptions, toothpaste, anxiety medications, armaments, and political candidates and much more.
—————————————
Defense Secretary Austin’s failure to tell White House of his hospitalization exposes collapse of civilian control over the military.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/01/10/lfbp-j10.html
Charley Brown – The Coasters
https://youtu.be/-t7GNMlDb_I
Interesting article on the Business Insider. Apparently Zaluzhnyi wanted to launch the offensive to the Sea of Azov last year, instead of the Kherson offensive. It was deemed to risky by the US advisors who pushed for the less risky Kherson operation. Given what we know now, seems like such a missed opportunity as the war hasn’t settled into the current quagmire and Russians were undermanned and vulnerable.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wanted-a-bold-counteroffensive-but-us-disagreed-book-2024-1
You’ve stirred some memories there, Voislav, you really have. It wasn’t so long ago and the memory’s still vivid. All the excitement over the “counter-offensive”, as they christened it.
Our proxies, trained to superior western standards, kitted out with western Wunderwaffen, far superior to demoralised Russian troops who we all knew didn’t want to be there anyway, were going to sweep through to Mariupol – to Sebastopol even! – and sort out those dammed Ruskies once and for all. That was the story.
I remember all that very well indeed. The UK press and what I could pick up of the foreign press was full of it. All England was cheering the gallant Kiev forces on. All Germany too, judging by my connections over there, though I think even then the Germans were a bit more savvy than we were.
Though it’s no compliment that there were a few Germans more wide awake than us. The discovery that we English were just as ready to swallow whatever the politicians and their sidekicks fed us as the Euros – more so in fact – took just a little getting used to.
All Englishmen are weaned on the belief that it’s only us can do proper politics. So I’d long had the vague conviction that we English were, well, more politically sophisticated than the benighted continentals. We had the long matured tradition of an evolved constitution whereas they, poor saps, had to make do with whatever ersatz constitution some half-witted bureaucrat had lumbered them with. We English knew what o’ clock it was even if our neighbours didn’t.
You can scrub all that make-believe for a start. As far as I could judge we English – and the Irish too to my disbelief at the time – fell for the scam hook line and sinker. We were as “politically sophisticated” as babes unborn. Back then you could only watch with utter amazement as England in its entirety fell for the witless nonsense our politicians and journalists fed us.
Gallant Kiev forces? That was true at least. I’d read accounts, some Russian accounts as well, of the courage and resourcefulness of those Ukrainian troops. And damn near wept when I saw the cream of the Ukrainian soldiery being fed into the killing fields by a bunch of Ghani types or, worse, neo-Nazi loons, interested only – as they still are – in milking Western aid to the last penny they could squeeze out of it.
And the bullshit we fell for was so transparent it hurt. Did we really believe our proxies were going to smash through those “vulnerable” Russian lines like a fist through wet cardboard? How did the de Bretton-Gordons and the Richard Kemps and the rest of the sidekicks sell that to us?
We were supposed to believe such nonsense after witnessing, in the very first days of the war, the neatest and most effective demolition of the Ukrainian army that could have been devised. We were supposed to believe that after achieving that military feat, and that with forces a fraction of the size of the forces they were opposing, the Russians would have nothing more up their sleeves.
We did believe it. Every damn word of it.
Incredibly, it was worse even than that. I still remember writing in furiously to English sites trying to hammer home the obvious. Because none stopped to think what would have happened had the Kiev forces really cut through to Sebastopol. I suppose the de Bretton-Gordons and his comrades in bullshit had the misty belief that if our proxies got that far the Russians would just have said, “Oh dear. We seem to have lost Sebastopol. Frightful shame. Suppose we’d better push off then.”
Like hell. Come on Voislav. The fact that most of Europe believed all that patent nonsense, and still does, doesn’t mean everyone has to, surely?
EO…
and ALL..
The WSJ Wall Street Journal…Has Pub;ished a
Long Article..with many photos ..Today..With The Header
Reading..”Ukraine,s War Effort is Stuck. This Heroic Battlefield FailureShows Why.”
“Route of Elite Ukrainian forces in Counteroffensive”by..
James Marson Jan 10,2024..
Its About Captain Anatoliy Karchenko..leading The Ukrainians
against Robotyne…Verbove..around August 2023..
They described it as Nothing But WW1 Trench Warfare,,They Lost..They Had Anticipated Nothing The Russians Did to Them..
Most Recently…Many Published Storys That Ukraine Wants to
Assemble a New Army of 500,000 ..Troops..Grind..Grind..
jim
Voislav –
From the beginning Ukrainian military skill and will to fight back was vastly underrated by both the Pentagon and the Kremlin.
There is one thing Russia, Ukraine, China and the US all have in common: No way to audit an election.
I do like that I can own guns but even that is getting to the point where I’m likely put in jail first trying to prove someone did attempt to break into my home. I honestly don’t think the uni-party allowing this relic of owning guns to last much longer. We are heading to full blown communism. Trump is the devil’s brat though you better believe it. Get your grandkids sex changed and protesting about something by at least the age of 9 and the uniparty will leave you alone.
“Communism” doesn’t do justice to the all powerful controlling entity which ties into knots and fearful opposition of everything (including their own identity) literally everyone of every age, race, gender, party and economic class here in the land of the students and childhood devotees of Dobie Gillis, Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Captain Kangaroo, Mr Greenjeans and Mister Rogers. I’d try “Confusionism” as the Western Power Bloc’s emergency 21st century doctrine with resultant policy and strategies. It seems like the activity of brainless geronticratic nitwits overburdened with sadistic predilections but it isn’t, or not entirely. This “Confusionism” makes a perfect matching bookend and tasteful table-setting to go with with the “Confucianism” which TTG and Fred discussed above. East – Confucius and West – Confuse Us.
(Is the similarity between ‘Us’ in ‘Confuse Us’ and ‘US’ as in ‘United States’ purely happenstance?)
8 billion mammalian biped entities each consisting of tens of trillions of unicellular life forms weather and somehow survive the lashings of churning sea, flailing tornado and hurricane, flood of lunar tide and melting glacier, not to mention several hundred thousand years of attack by carnivorous wild beasts, infectious virus, lethal bacteria and armed hominid to awaken in the years of our lord AD 2024 et seq to face each glorious day the most mighty and overpowering and remorseless two predatory enemies known to human history and unopposable by any army of Napoleon or Alexander nor horde of Attila – the morning newspaper and it’s evil twins the morning newscaster of radio and television.
Get you Covid booster, unless you are crossing the border; Real ID to travel, unless illegally crossing the border; zoom for school kids, especially when the gym is used to house the illegally entered ‘migrants’ who won’t migrate home, just no zoom for those private jet setters saving us from ‘climate change’.
Don’t worry, we can blame it all on dementia Joe rather than Barack Obama and James Clyburn and the black voters of the Democratic Party who put the man into office.
TTG
How much longer do you estimate Ukraine can sustain 30,000 casualties a month* and the Ukrainian front lines survive a five fold (and rising) inferiority in artillery capability**?
* https://abcnews.go.com/International/hospital-sees-30-rise-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-doctor/story?id=106197525
** https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/heres-how-the-russian-and-ukrainian-war-efforts-compare-in-10-charts-1cf9a74f
Ben Hodges evidently thinks Ukraine’s front line is close to collapse. The Ukrainians have fought like lions, they should sue for peace before the start of the rout.
Barbara Ann,
I have no reason to doubt the 30,000 casualties a month suffered during the counteroffensive. But the Ukrainians are adamant that their struggle will continue into 2026 and beyond. There is a recent discussion paper published by the Estonian MOD that lays out how Ukraine can militarily defeat Russia in 2026 if they can bring about 50,000 dead Russians every six months. That is what they are doing now.
To put things in perspective, here’s some figures from WWII. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia are coming close to these losses. They survived those losses and won. Let’s hope it doesn’t get this bad, but it can.
“However, of the 41.7 million people living in Ukrainian Soviet Republic before the war, only 27.4 million were alive in Ukraine in 1945. Official data says that at least 8 million Ukrainians lost their lives: 5.5 – 6 million civilians, and more than 2.5 million natives of Ukraine were killed at the front.”
“The Soviet Union lost around 27 million people during the war, including 8.7 million military and 19 million civilian deaths. The largest portion of military dead were 5.7 million ethnic Russians, followed by 1.3 million ethnic Ukrainians. A quarter of the people in the Soviet Union were wounded or killed.”
Do you have any idea of how depraved and indifferent to human life and suffering you have to be to say something like that? To say don’t worry everything is ok because it’s not yet at the worst, severe and desolate level known to history?
“Anything short of the black death or devastation by asteroid is peachy.” – Thus Quoth TTGustra.
F&L,
A people determined to defend their very existence will endure horrific losses to fend off annihilation. Putin will have to do a lot more than what he’s done so far if he wants to subjugate Ukraine. He may be willing to do so, but I doubt Russia is.
At least 130,000 Lithuanians were deported and 50,000 killed including 20,000 partisans, by the SovietsSoviets. That’s in addition to the 180,000 Lithuanian Jews killed by the Nazis and their Lithuanian collaborators. That’s out of a pre-war population of 2.4 million. Even with those losses, Lithuanians offered armed resistance to the Kremlin until 1953 without any outside assistance. They declared independence in 1990 and stood up against Gorbachev’s military in 1991 without arms. The horrific losses did not deter them. The Ukrainians will do the same.
There is a recent discussion paper published by the Estonian MOD that lays out how Ukraine can militarily defeat Russia in 2026 if they can bring about 50,000 dead Russians every six months. That is what they are doing now.
TTG, I found your response highly irritating too. … But we’ve been there before. …
Now? They manage to “bring about 50,000 dead Russians every six months”. The rate slowed somewhat lately? Their own KIA rate slowed too? Do you have a link?
Paying limited attention, but I thought we have to assume about 500,000 dead Russian troops by now? Or was that killed (if I may?) & wounded (successfully disabled?).
Does the Estonian Ministry of Defense give us numbers? Killed by now & estimated ones in 2026? What basis, at what time, Juli/December/2026? Further 250,000 or 300,000 dead Russians vs only 150 to 175,000 dead Ukrainian troops?
TTG – moving the argument to the severely practical, I don’t believe that’s going to work.
The figures for the current Ukrainian population, after annexations and emigration, are given as between fifteen and twenty-five million. Whatever the number it’s reducing fast. The economy is shot. The government is in disarray. Western aid is diminishing. The medical services are overloaded. Most of the experienced soldiers are dead.
There just isn’t the material here for any sort of victory. There never has been: the hopes of victory were always based on the expectation that Russia would be defeated in the sanctions war. They were not based on any rational assessment of the military force at the disposal of the respective sides.
President Biden stated at the start there’d no be American boots on the ground and has more or less held to that. General Kujat and many others have explained in detail that the state of the European armies is such that in reality they’ve no boots to put on the ground to any effect anyway. Western ISR and equipment, technical and financial aid has greatly prolonged the war but will not of itself win it. The Ukrainian army is too small and too poorly equipped to beat the Russians.
“EO, welcome back” was the most heartening comment I ever read on the internet. Written by the Colonel I think from his sick bed when I submitted a reference to another surrender, that surrender also made by a courageous and resolute fighter. Some time ago, that, but I believe the argument still holds. Irrespective of the rights and wrongs of this war, as of that one, I believe it’s well past time now for the Ukrainians also to accept military reality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Appomattox_Court_House
TTG,
“You cannot stop me. I spend 30,000 men a month” so said Napoleon to Metternich. I thought the motto was “De oppresso liber “, not fight to the last man. The conduct of the current government of Ukraine certainly falls into the category of “oppressive”.
Fred,
You think the government in Kyiv is oppressive? They’re fighting for Ukraine’s continued existence against Putin’s war of aggression. None of those men and women would be dying or getting their limbs blown off if Russia would return to her borders. For that matter, hundreds of thousands of Russians wouldn’t have died or gotten their limbs blown off if Putin didn’t launch his invasion. He’s sending 35,000 of his Rosgvardiya in an attempt to stop the continuing and growing resistance in the occupied territories, those territories and Russian speaking people he claims he is fighting to liberate from oppression.
TTG,
While I have great admiration for the fighting forces of Ukraine the answer to your question is yes. IF is a wonder word, such as IF the borg (global neocons +) had not insisted on the expansion of NATO East this war would not exist and Zelenski would still be making a living as a comedian rather than as an autocrat who suspends elections and arrests political opponents.
Ok, it is quite easy to find:
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/setting_transatlantic_defence_up_for_success_0.pdf
page 10 bottom and following: The Task.
LeaNder,
Glad you found it. It’s a better link than the one I had. I first learned of it through a short write up by Stefan Korshak, a defense reporter for the Kyiv Post that came out in mid-December.
https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/december-16-day-661-sturm-und-drang-clever-estonians-missile-records-5696a18a9d7a
He noted the theme of the Estonian MOD discussion paper calling for killing more Russians and said it coincided with the views of many Ukrainian soldiers he talked with.
I personally think continued strategic strikes at Russia’s logistical, command and control and air defense networks is a better and less bloody strategy to bringing the war to a “successful conclusion” as Korshak puts it. I think Ukraine should stay in a defensive crouch along the front to better preserve her forces. The question arises as to what would happen if Russia decided to do the same. would that lead to some kind de facto truce or Sitzkrieg along the front while both parties duked it out strategically? Or a WWI style trench war with constant artillery and drone duels?
LeaNder,
Estonia is going to give strategic advice? When did they win their last war?
“With more than €330 billion frozen by the
international community, of which more
than €200 billion are controlled by the EU”
Great, the EU will seize this money and give it to Ukraine? What are the consequences to that now and in future investment in the EU terms?
“The acquiescence of several
states with significant exposure to the EU in
enabling Russian evasion of sanctions and
export controls must be robustly contested.”
Which member states of the EU will the EU leadership go after next, besides Hungary, whose president will lead the council shortly, or do you plan on stopping that?
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/06/01/hungary-s-future-eu-council-presidency-in-2024-draws-concerns-from-meps-and-governments_6028688_4.html
BTW what’s the likely results of German state elections and how does that impact EU policy in Brussels?
LeaNder – have just read through it.
That Estonian statement of intent may seem ludicrous – except that it’s in line with similar but much more significant statements of intent coming out of Washington and Berlin/Brussels. Also of course from our own David Cameron.
Such statements sign the death warrant of remnant Ukraine as an independent country. No country, Russia or any other, could permit a threat such as that on its border.
EO, it asks for heavy European investment in remilitarization and/or heavy rearmament. Something the US asks for since the Balkan wars. That is indeed a more frequent and urgent issue post Trump, over here too, I agree. But that is something you feel should happen too. No? Did I misread your ridicule of continental forces?
But: What is your take on the central argument indirectly alluded to here?
In a nutshell: Ukrainians have trouble training beyond company level at home (page 12 top), that is why the (urgent) task is (page 10f bottom) to upset the Russian training capabilities of 130,000 troops every half year by killing or disabling 50,000 troops, so Russia has to send 40,000 additional untrained ones to the frontline, thus upsetting the Russian 130,000 unit force coherence?
Did I hear or read of Russian force coherence? I mostly read about untrained sheep, recruited in prisons or among non Russian communities far from Moscow being sent to their slaughter:
Continue to blunt Russian offensive operations
• If undisrupted, Russia has the capacity to train approximately 130,000 troops every six months into cohered units and formations available for launching operations. Additional troops can be mobilised and pushed into Ukraine as untrained replacements, but these do not provide effective combat power.
…
• The objective therefore should be to inflict a sustained rate of attrition of at least 50,000 killed and severely wounded Russian troops per six months to consistently degrade the quality of Russian force, preventing Russia from regenerating offensive combat power – which Ukraine has so far successfully
achieved.
Did the reports about people taking training privately in Ukraine catch your attention, here or on the splendid island ? … They have been all over the place over here. Those reports now makes sense to me. Tricked by Estonian propaganda?
Manpower
To enable the Armed Forces of Ukraine to liberate key objectives, it is necessary to provide sufficient training to expand the scale at which the AFU can conduct operations. At present, the AFU are unable to reliably train inside Ukraine above company-level because of the long-range strike threat to training areas. Ukrainian units therefore struggle to operate in a synchronised way in larger formations above a company.
They never mention numbers for Ukrainian losses, just: “while over the course of 2022 there was heavy attrition among experienced field officers and soldiers alike. ” And we learn that so far collectively US/Uk and the EU have trained 100,000 forces. And how comparatively cheap the training was.
Do I think soldiers should be trained? Both Russian and Ukrainian ones. May help to survive?
LeaNder – I take my opinion on the German army from Inspector Generals’ reports and from what German Generals say. That the German army was something of a wreck was known well before the SMO.
I look for opinions on the other European armies from equivalent sources. My opinion of the state of the British army is based on HoC reports and various other opinions given by those who study it. I may have mentioned that I’m an enemy for life of Scott Ritter after I heard him say that our army is first class but is known as the Benjamin Button of armies. Apparently it’d fit into a football stadium with room to spare and the heart’s desire of past UK Defence Ministers has been to get that down to a squash court.
So these are all still armies with good soldiers in them but they are in no way comparable to the European armies of Cold War I.
“Ridicule”? Certainly not. Merely sober confirmation of Kujat’s view that all these European armies put together would be powerless to hold the Russians in a conventional war.
That’s why I’m always asserting that the Europeans leverage American military power to achieve their ends. They don’t have much of their own to leverage.
It’s also why Berlin/Brussels wishes to become a formidable military power in their own right. The le Maire comment I copied for you shows that clearly. That’s what the Cold War II we’re hurtling towards is also in part about. European defence industries wish for increased European defence spending and will probably get it. Go long Rheinmetall. You’ll recollect the letter I’ve copied recently that shows HMG not wanting to be left out in the cold in that respect.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference
On your own army, I picked up a statement from somewhere that the remilitarisation of Germany was agreed in the pre-SMO German coalition talks, Never saw any confirmation of that. You’ll be far more in touch with German politics so I wondered if you had any information or sources on that.
A Winter line of Tin Foil Headwear premiering on the Милитарист Channel? I’m not sure actually. It could simply be a case of heads inserted for too many minutes in an obscure place, or it could be award winning analysis of a critical case of infrastructure refurbishment in Brooklyn NY. Translated for your enjoyment.
—————————————
https://t.me/infantmilitario/116935
The story of the synagogue in New York, which was raided by security forces and containing secret tunnels, was made by Biden as a move aimed directly at Netanyahu and his far-right team.
The synagogue is one of the largest and most prominent centers of Chabad, to which Netanyahu belongs, and is also the point where his extreme rise in politics began.
The rabbis here wield enormous political, intelligence and economic power and influence throughout the world. These are people who believe that Israel should emerge as a great nation after the great war in the Middle East and become the clear leader of the world.
When the Epstein case became known, the first thing that attracted the world’s attention was the contacts of former and current senior Israeli figures. At first it might have seemed that the emergence of this story now was a desperate attempt to divert attention from the growing reaction, even in the West, to Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, but now Israel’s role in this issue has come to stand out. This was the second step taken to show who is in charge here.
Although Biden seems to be in the foreground, first the suspicious disappearance of US Defense Secretary Austin, or rather his supposed illness, then the raid on a place of material and moral value to Netanyahu, and the disappearance of important people are a clear warning from the US to take a step back in this war.
Israel will either act recklessly in this matter or gain new major powers both in the West and in the region.
This move likely came from Hillary’s team. Hillary’s priority is the fight against Russia, and all of Netanyahu’s adventures and his close contacts with Obama show that Hillary, who is afraid of losing power after Ukraine, has begun to restore order and guarantee her future, so Netanyahu will apparently lose his power after the war.
Now we should prepare for any scenario, a world war begins.
F&L..
Very interesting Write Up..to Read…I see Possibility’s in Your Comments
Knowing some of the Back Storys on Your Players..
jim
For Example….The CLINTONS..
Bill and Hillary have been in Mexico..meeting with Gavin Newsom and His Wife…Staying at the Four Seasons Resort at Tamarindo..On a Private “Nature” Reserve…
The Clintons have also in The Dominica Republic,,,on December 29th…And They also were With President Sebastian Pinara..of Chili..and……
President Pena-Nieto..of Mexico,,Who They Gather With NEXT..is the Focus..
Gavin Newsom is Coming Back..To Present His States Budget Proposal
in Sacrement..Tomorrow..Thursday..
After the San Franscisco Meeting With Xi…The United States and China have
resume across Table Talks,, Arms Negotiations…Taiwan etc..
The Biden Administration is on Record today Of Wanting To Sieze
Russias Frozen Assets…. 300 BILLION..and give the money to Ukraine..
Iran has Developed a New Attack DRONE…the Shahed-107..For Russia..
So..it is an is Issue of Weapons and Ammunition Supplies..Top Gun..
jim
TTG, with respect, you. are running the risk of sounding like a WWI General.
I’m waiting. for the Kagans and their loathsome fellow believers, for some more pornographic arithmetic.
I expect something like ” Ukraine has already suffered 500,000 casualties, therefore we must be prepared to sacrifice another 500,000, otherwise those deaths will have been in vain.”
Or the more depressing: “We are killing more Russians than they are of us, therefore if we lose another 300,000 it will be a good investment because Russia will suffer proportionately more than we will”.
None of you are factoring in the real risk; which is that the Russian people become enraged by Ukrainian and perhaps European behavior and demand Putin exchange the measured and restrained SMO strategy for one of total war. If that happens we will be lucky if only Ukrainian cities look like todays Gaza and not the major cities of their backers.
walrus,
You’re absolutely right. This talk of 30,000 casualties here and 50,000 casualties there is cold and distasteful. None of it would be necessary if Putin would end his war of conquest. He had a go at it with his decapitation effort back in February 2022. He failed and could have settled for Crimea, the DNR and LNR. The killing could have ended there or near ended. What support the Kremlin had among the Russian speaking Ukrainians has evaporated due to the death and destruction wrought by Putin’s continuing war.
Kyiv must be mindful of the costs of their resistance. Their conscription age still stands at 27 although it may soon be lowered to 25. That’s very different from US practices. Ukrainians explain the reasoning as an effort to save their youth for a future Ukraine, saving the seed corn as some as said.
Putin is well aware of one real risk, that the Russian people will become enraged by the human and material sacrifices brought about by his decision to invade Ukraine and to keep throwing Russians at the problem. It’s what’s keeping him from demanding a full mobilization. He’s trying to sell his war as a fight for Russia’s existence. Some believe it. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine is that good, but there are limits to its effectiveness. Signs of popular discontent are growing. Not revolution, mind you, but all these acts of sabotage and mysterious fires across Russia are not the work of Ukrainian intelligence and special forces.
I understand your opinion TTG, however there is another set of opinions that hold that Putin has been way too weak and far too lenient with the Ukrainian Government. The danger I see is twofold – it was alluded to by Pat, God bless him.
That was the danger, in wartime. that Government may lose control of the agenda and the people would make irrestistible demands for action – for example if a U.S. city was nuked, the Administration would. not be able to resist calls to nuke a Russian city, even if they understood (the government, not the people) that this would trigger a nuclear Armageddon.
I am concerned that the Russian people’s
may decide they have had enough. If I was Ukrainian, I would also be concerned that they may decide they have had enough of being used as cannon fodder in support of the neocon objective of destroying Russia. There is precedent for such behavior – the action of Italy before the end of WWII.. This is not Ukraines war, it was started by the US and NATO.
walrus,
I do agree that Putin and his closest advisors, of which there are few, have not gone whole hog into this war. They’re rattled the nuclear saber, but I don’t think they were ever serious about. They have not attacked a NATO country or engaged in sabotage of the flow of weapons into Ukraine. And yes, if Putin decided to nuke a US city, of course the US would nuke a Russian city and we would go from there. We embarked on a war of vengeance in Afghanistan for far less than that. No government wants to go down that road. For the same reason, Russia has not seriously threatened to use a nuke in Ukraine.
But beyond that, Russia is not holding a lot back voluntarily. If the Russian Aerospace Forces could gain air superiority, they would rain pure hell down on Ukraine. They can’t gain air superiority. The Kremlin can’t go into a full mobilization because that would break the agreement between the government and the Russian people established over decades of the application of reflexive control. The people are provided a certain standard of living and freedom to be left alone as long as they leave the business of governing to the Kremlin. That’s why the people didn’t react one way or the other to Prigozhin’s half-assed coup attempt. No one helped him and no one stopped him. For the same reason, I don’t see a popular revolution arising in Russia. But a widespread withdrawal from Putin’s war economy is a possibility. That would be devastating for Putin.
Finally, this is Ukraine’s war. Ukraine was invaded by Russia. They are fighting for their existence as an independent country. Russia did not invade NATO or the US. They are denuding their forces along the NATO border with Finland and in Kaliningrad. If their top concern was NATO aggression, they wouldn’t do that.
walrus
Yes, instead of the Russian people rising up to overthrow Putin I think it far more likely they will demand NATO is defeated in Ukraine by whatever means – witness the only serious attempt so far to challenge Putin’s authority; the Wagner march.
NATO weapons are increasingly being used to target Russia. The original excuse for withholding such capability was the risk of provoking a more direct NATO-Russian conflict. The militarization Russia is now going through is hardening attitudes towards Russia’s enemies, not the reverse. This process will develop a logic all of its own and where it leads will not be as easily controlled as the short, limited conflict the Kremlin originally sought. Why else were Strelkov and his like silenced? This is why Putin is reticent to fully mobilize; fear of revolution yes, but one by the mass of Russian patriots, not the minority of Western sympathizers – a group who remain over represented in privileged positions, the legacy of events in the 90’s.
Putin’s signature conservative approach of trying to balance domestic nationalist and liberal interests can last as long as he is able to deliver victory (or more accurately, avoid defeat) no longer. Leaving a militarized Ukraine able to join NATO could not now be spun in Russia as anything other than a catastrophic defeat. No Russian leader can sell that. It will not happen before the total commitment and defeat of the Russian military.
Russians may be fighting in Ukraine but most clearly see NATO and the West as the enemy in this conflict. Russo-phobic neocons in NATO countries before and after 2014 engineered the situation where conflict would be the inevitable outcome. Kudos. But those who have persuaded themselves that Putin’s aim in 2022 was conquest should ask themselves this: Why did this supposed irredentist monster studiously avoided invading Ukraine proper in 2014 – when the whole place could have been overrun in a few weeks?
Interesting stats. The writing is on the wall. ⏱⏳⏱
———————–
https://t.me/infantmilitario/117019
An analysis of internal data by Military.com shows why U.S. military leaders are so concerned.
“In 2018, a total of 44,042 Army recruits were classified as white, but this number has consistently fallen each year to a low of 25,070 in 2023, with a 6% drop between 2022 and 2023 being the most significant drop. No other demographic group has seen such a dramatic decline, although there have been ups and downs year after year,” the site reports.
In 2023, the Army missed its recruiting goal of 65,000 soldiers due to a shortfall of 10,000, with only 44% of recruits classified as white in 2023, down from 56.4% in 2018.
F&L, wasn’t something like this – a failure to attract citizens into the Roman army and their replacement by provincials with no motivation to fight for Good ‘Ol’ SPQR one of the causes of the fall of Rome?
walrus,
Beyond the failure to meet recruiting goals, the makeup of the Army appears to be returning to something closer to what I experienced in the 70s. The Infantry was skewed non-white. My rifle platoon was predominantly black and Hispanic. My weapons platoon was mostly Hispanic. That was true for the NCOs in both and was typical throughout the battalion. Special Forces was different. There were not many Hispanics and even fewer blacks in the 10th Group. Maybe that was accentuated by our European target area, but I’m not sure. This is also mirroring trends in participation in the US work force and in college attendance.
Walrus,
Yes there are several parallels. The yeoman husbandman farmer-soldier disappeared as a class as Rome became dominated by a plutocracy – huge plantation farms worked by slaves mostly from conquered territories replaced the citizen soldier. The legions gradually became filled with men from present day Balkan areas and then German ethnicities. Our flyover country and its hollowed out industry etc. The demographic curves are crossing far earlier than was predicted. Already in elementary schools the whites are a minority. The main culprit is concentration of wealth and ensuing decadence. Jeffrey Sachs says that fortunes above a certain amount X have to be made illegal. I agree. What is the value of X? I don’t know, I think any fortune above several hundred million is obscene.
EO –
Outlawing billi0naires? Tucker will have a hissy fit. Won’t work on this side of the pond. But it would be great to return to the proportionality under Eisenhower where the super-rich had super-high tax rates. Currently the average billionaire pays a federal tax rate of just over 8%. Meanwhile, your average John and/or Jane Doe pay 13%.
Leith, EO is F&L? Slim chance.
Leith – but that was the age of the American Dream. With a giant home-based industrial economy like that it was something for everybody and it didn’t really matter how. Might be more difficult to do it now. Maybe Trump will get another go at it.
F&L – my apologies.
F&L,
It’s a drastically different world in the trades since the 70’s thru to today. The Boomers are retiring in droves and everybody is struggling to find young people now. Used to be you had to “know somebody”, but today healthy young white male who walks too slowly past the door of an electrician, HVAC, and even a commercial plumber runs a risk of being shanghaied.
When good employment is easy to find recruiting always suffers.