BREAKING: Ukraine confirms to have shot down two Russian planes over occupied Berdyansk on the Azov Sea: Russian A-50 AWACS IL-76 reconnaissance plane. ($300m); Russian IL-22, possibly the Special Mission variant PP radar jammer. Distress messages intercepted.
If this is true, and an A-50 was shot down either by Ukrainians or Russian mistake, then there was a Russian AWACS (Signal intelligence – whatever they were doing) crew of maybe a colonel (or senior Lt. Col), a few Lt.Col., 3 – 4 Maj., and a 5-6 Capt. together with pilot and co-pilot. that makes 12 – 14 officers.
UPDATE: The IL-22 in question appears to have been the M variant rather than the PP variant. IL-22M is the type of Mission Control plane that Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC shot down during the ‘March on Moscow’ in Russia. Both the A-50 AWACS and the IL-22M are mission critical assets. In particular the Russian A-50 reconnaissance plane is an asset Russia has been using around the clock to monitor 400km into Ukrainian air space, with alleged capabilities to identify any aircraft and air defense system within that scope. Russia has just a handful of such planes.
UPDATE: The A-50 & IL-22M aircraft were being escorted by a Su-30SM and the pilots observed the planes getting hit, likely by Ukrainian PATRIOT missiles. Russian military helicopters on the way to search for wreckage.
UPDATE: Russian sources claim the IL-22M was hit but managed to make an emergency landing. Two crew members injured. Deafening silence on the fate of the A-50 AWACS behemoth from the Russian side.
UPDATE: Russian source alleges – IL-22M11, tail number 75106, was hit around Kyrylivka but managed to make an emergency landing in Anapa in Russia across the Kerch Bridge. A-50 AWACS IL-76 behemoth was shot down and destroyed over Strilkove. Northeast of occupied Crimea. Some Russians now claim the IL-22M was hit by Russia’s own air defense by mistake. Since the plane managed to land afterward and it’s rather difficult to imagine the aircraft would’ve survived a PATRIOT missile hit, this is plausible.
Strilkove, the alleged location of the Russian A-50 behemoth disappearing from the radar, is within range of the Patriot PAC-2 missile if it was launched from Ukraine-controlled Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnipro river.
It was definitely not shot down by a Patriot battery on the right bank. That 160km range is under ideal conditions— the target flying in just the right direction and not taking any sorts of evasive maneuvers. Under combat conditions a Patriot would not be able to hit something at that range. Even if it could, it would require placing the patriot battery, one of the most valuable assets in the Ukrainian war effort, well within the range of Russian tube artillery from the left bank. It would be an incredibly stupid risk.
A shoot down near Berdyansk (as was the initially reported location) would be a bit more likely from a patriot system located across the river in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but even that would be a long shot for a patriot under combat conditions and be dangerously close to the front line, so I find that unlikely as well. Friendly fire by the Russians still seems to be a lot more likely.
I suspect that Ukrainian used the Home-on-Jam capabilities of Patriot missiles. They fired the missiles at lofted trajectory, increasing the range and giving no missile warning to the target since the missiles are only seeking radio/radar emissions of A-50 and IL-76.
After Ukrainians recently took out big Russian radar in Crimea, there were explanations that for some time Russians will have big problems in AD, among them recognition of foe-friend. Maybe friendly fire.
Comment: This is a compilation of tweets on the “aviation incident” in the Sea of Azov on 14 January. Claims, counter-claims and explanations have been all over the place. It does appear that an A-50 AWACS place was shot down and an Il-22M command and control aircraft was hit, but it managed to land on a Russian airfield. The two main competing claims are that a Ukrainian Patriot hit them or Russian air defense hit them. A third explanation I heard last night was that they were hit by Ukrainian aircraft firing AIM-120 AMRAAM or even an airborne version of NASAMS.
Another possibility is that Ukrainian aircraft were in the air and the Russians thought they were making a run at the Kerch bridge. The bridge was shut down as it now is whenever a threat is detected. With the degraded air defense systems in Crimea and especially the degraded command and control, I can see how Russian air defense could have gotten confused and launched missiles at their own aircraft. Could have been just a series of misfortunate events as many surmise. There’s been quite a few Russian aircraft brought down by Russian air defense lately. Or it could have been a clever Ukrainian ruse of deliberately faking a run at the bridge, maybe aided by the use of EW assets, to force the Russians into shooting their own aircraft down. Whatever the answer is, the Russians are having a big sad. This is a comment made by Fighterbomber, a well known Russian war blogger:
A tragedy is always a tragedy. Especially when it’s of this scale. Regardless of who was in the plane. We most likely will not know who is to blame for the deaths of pilots. To those who died: eternal flight; to the wounded: a speedy recovery and return to duty. But you better demand the details from the Ministry of Defence, who consider themselves to be the real patriots of the country and know exactly what can be posted and what cannot. And yes. It’s probably still worth trying to go back to the roots, when tank crews were commanded by tank crews, pilots by pilots, and anti-aircraft gunners by anti-aircraft gunners. It definitely won’t get any worse.
TTG
I don’t think this will put a spring in Victoria Nuland’s step. She f***** around and found out as the saying goes. Her and the rest of them at the State Dept. I don’t know what their fascination is of being hell bent on destroying Russia. Some say it’s retribution for their refugee and murdered ancestors. Likely some truth to it. End of the day it does not matter. Russia is not screwing around anymore. Either cut Ukraine in half right now or there won’t be a Ukraine anymore. Time to wind down this massive coup failure up. It was a horrible plan. No long range courses of action and they paid in full for it. It’s going to break up NATO if they don’t simmer down.
babelthuap,
On the contrary, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the reinvigoration and enlargement of NATO. It looks more like it’s Russia who FAFO.
I’m not a Russian shill. I can’t stand Russia but Finland’s birthrate is rapidly declining and inflation keeps rising. What value are they adding to NATO exactly?
Ukraine, Switzerland Prepare Meeting to Push Peace Formula:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/ukraine-switzerland-prepare-meeting-to-push-peace-formula
BRICs expansion:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc
babelthuap,
A declining birthrate is characteristic of all of Europe, Russia, the US and even China. Finland’s military is modern, quite capable and has an adequate military industrial base. It’s bigger than the British military.
We will find out together then. Putin never wanted western Ukraine. I predict it will be split in half and the fighting stops before the US election. Both sides declare victory. US taxpayers get screwed, more illegal aliens invade the west, lack of resources to take care of them then the decision is made to round them all up and throw them at Russia in a decade or so.
babelthuap,
As long as Finland buys more US weapons then it is mission accomplished. What else does the US export these days?
James,
Our top exports are gas, oil, civilian aircraft parts, passenger cars and agricultural products.
TTG,
Boeing is in trouble, in 2021 the US imported almost 3 times as many cars as it exported, margins are thin in agriculture products, and the New York Times has this to say about the fracking revolution that has powered US oil and gas exports:
“Between mid-2012 and mid-2017, the 60 biggest fracking companies were losing an average of $9 billion each quarter. From 2006 to 2014, fracking companies lost $80 billion; in 2014, with oil at $100 a barrel, a level that seemed to promise a great cash-out, they lost $20 billion.”
So those big fat margins in defense exports are I think a pretty big deal … as service exporters like Google.
James,
“The most recent exports are led by Refined Petroleum ($83.3B), Petroleum Gas ($70.9B), Crude Petroleum ($67.6B), Cars ($55.4B), and Integrated Circuits ($51.3B).”
“In 2022, U.S. exports of farm and food products to the world totaled $196 billion, topping the 2021 total (and previous record) by 11 percent ($19.5 billion).”
“In 2022, the U.S. arms exports totaled to about 14.52 billion constant (1990) U.S. dollars.”
None of that tells us about the profit margins, but defense exports aren’t even close to the other exports. But you’re right about services. That’s probably pretty sizable.
Here is the link for my NYTimes quote above:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/opinion/environment/energy-crisis-oil-gas-fracking.html
TTG,
I’ve had trouble finding arms exports numbers when I looked for them in the past. Seeing you lay them out next to the other numbers … I see your point.
James,
But I bet you’re also right about the profit margins for arms exports, especially to the Saudis.
The Putin appears to be monumentally unconcerned about an enlargement of NATO to include Finland and Sweden.
Apparently the Kremlin considers those two countries to be run by sane people, and the Russians seems to be quite OK with the concept of well-armed sane people on the borders of the Russian Federation.
But Ukraine? That’s a country that is full-on batshit crazy.
The Baltic states? Scarcely any better but, really, who cares?
So I would suggest that as far as the Russians go the “reinvigoration and enlargement of NATO” via the addition of Finland and Sweden is a big ol’ ho-hum event, and the Kremlin will be full of mirth when the Fins and the Swedes end up in the same room as the plank of wood called Staltenberg and the wide-eyed crazies from Poland, the Balts, and all the other batshit crazies.
Heck, from The Putin’s point of view it will probably be a relief to see a few more sober and sane voice in the NATO situation room.
The A-50 AWACS loss if true is a major defeat to RU aviation. Especially with the reported attack on the roto-dome antenna of an A-50 at an airfield in Belarus last year. They’ll need a replacement in the air on station ASAP. Without one their fighters will be blind and flying by the seat of their pants like their great-grandfathers did. Not just air-to-air but they direct air-to-ground attacks also. Plus they are tied in with ground air-defense to extend the radar range and precision of S-400 SAMs.
So many different claims are going on about how and where it happened. It will take a while to determine or we may never know. One version I’ve seen is that the A-50 was hit over Obitochnaya Spit, which is damn near due south of the Orikhiv salient – and a lot closer PAC-2 shot than the 160km range to Strilkove as mentioned above. But the Ukrainians wouldn’t crazy enough to risk placing a Patriot in that salient. Would they?
TTG: “A third explanation I heard last night was that they were hit by Ukrainian aircraft firing AIM-120 AMRAAM or even an airborne version of NASAMS.”
A distinction without a difference, since the NASAMS fire the AIM-120 AMRAAM.
Or are you suggesting that the entire launch unit was strapped to a …. what, exactly?
Yeah, Right,
Could be the F-16s have arrived. It would be logical for the Ukrainians to make their coming-out party a surprise one.
And they’d keep that a secret once the shootdown occured, right?
I. Don’t. Think. So.
TTG – a recent observation from F&L is very much to the point here:-
http://tinyurl.com/5n7kjjzy
Nov 16,( 2023.) Patrushev: the likelihood of Ukraine committing sabotage using biological weapons is growing.
The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation also noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out more than 8 thousand attacks on the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. (More at link)
It’s very much to the point when considering the fate of remnant Ukraine. In addition to these concerns a recent article in the American press details the training of Ukrainian SF to carry out missions within Russia itself. Now the Germans are said to have supplied Ukraine with Patriots that are more mobile and can shoot and scoot. Whether that’s true or not western AD is going to get better and more difficult to detect and eliminate and it’ll be supplied to Ukraine.
The same applies to western ammunition and equipment supplies generally. We’re finding it difficult at present to supply Ukraine with what it needs but in the future it’ll be possible to gear up production and get more to them. The shelling of the ZNPP shows there are no holds barred when it comes to using western supplied munitions and equipment.
So leaving remnant Ukraine as it is means the Russians will be allowing the western powers carte blanche to use their proxies to mount attacks of various sorts against Russia indefinitely. Remnant Ukraine would remain the “zone of destabilisation and insecurity” that Sleboda predicted a while back. This’d be much like the ’50’s, when we used the “Banderite” insurgency to fight the Soviets for a while, or like the period before the SMO when the Ukrainians could shell civilians in the then Republics more or less ad lib.
I’m trying to imagine a situation in which the US or Germany would allow such severe annoyance on their borders indefinitely. I can’t. They’d take action at once to put a stop to the nuisance. The Russians are forced to do the same whether they like it or not. One way or another they’re going to have to neutralise remnant Ukraine. Which is what they declared they’d do at the start of the SMO. Unless President Biden has some unexpected rabbit he can pull out of the hat – and he’s found none so far – or unless it goes nuclear this is what the Russians will do.
So that downing of the Russian plane, whether it’s resulted from hostile action or whether it’s resulted from some muddle or other due to the fact there’s a war going on, is another nail in the coffin of an independent remnant Ukraine. What else can be expected, if we in the West use Ukraine for such purposes?
EO
“I’m trying to imagine a situation in which the US or Germany would allow such severe annoyance on their borders indefinitely”
What is this annoyance that shares a border with the US and Germany?
It’s just me getting my geography wrong, Barbara Ann. I took it for granted that Berlin/Brussels was a little annexe just off the Beltway.
You are not alone EO, NATO head Stoltenberg was just quoted as saying “We are not moving to Asia but China is coming closer to us”.
Must be some sort of plate tectonic weirdness I’m not aware of, no doubt Climate Change is to blame.
EO
what magical, non nuclear weapon do you think the Russians have that they might use to, as you say, put a stop to the nuisance ?
Wiz – how will the Russians put a stop to the nuisance we want to keep remnant Ukraine as? Three options:-
1. Probaby install a puppet regime. One that’s not like the one we installed.
2.. Occupy and police. I bet they’re hoping they don’t have to do that. Bad optics, huge expense.
3. By agreement with the US. They could probably knock up something that would allow Washington to save face if Washington wanted to go that way.
……………………..
Possibly the Ukrainians themselves will realise they’ve been taken for a ride both by the West and by their own extremists and do something about it themselves. The SBU’s got a tight grip on them but the Ukrainians are a feisty lot and might break that grip.
Unlikely, you might say, and I’ve seen none of the experts considering that possibility, but it’s a mugs game the Ukrainians are caught up in at the moment so that’s a possibility to bear in mind.
.
EO,
Russia’s conduct of this war has eroded almost all support that once existed among the Ukrainian population. They could stop the nuisance of Ukrainian attacks in Russia by getting out of Ukraine. However, even if they pulled back to the pre-February 2022 borders, I don’t think the Ukrainians would stop. That will only occur when Russian troops are behind the pre-2014 borders.
TTG – they’ve fought like tigers. As for hating Russians, I’d hate anyone who invaded my country whatever the rights and wrongs of it. So, one imagines, do most Ukrainians. Most outside the Kharkov-Odessa arc anyway though the population mix in the rest of the country is also somewhat uneven.
But there are, increasingly, statements coming out of Kiev showing they now know they’ve been taken for a ride. They’d never have dared push it as far as they did in February ’22 if they hadn’t thought the West was solidly behind them.
We haven’t been. Zelensky toured the capitals of the West to a rapturous reception – but got mostly cast-offs out of the it and the advanced stuff only in pathetic quantities. The sense of disillusionment that came off him at Vilnius (“We are not Amazon”, for heaven’s sake!) was palpable.
The sanctions war lost and the Americans not coming in in force they should have packed it in ages ago. The more we pushed them on the more lives and territory were lost and now they could well lose the country. We have well and truly led our proxies down the garden path.
Arestovich is a vicious character and gabby but in one respect he’s like our Boris Johnson. Very quick at picking up trends and shaping what he says to those trends. He’s done a Johnsonian U-turn and now says straight out that the Ukrainians backed the wrong horse. So they did, given how badly we’ve let them down.
We’re now going to watch the Kiev Black Sun mob play out the last days in the bunker and the Western politicians scrabbling around to try to save face, all the while good men are fighting on to no purpose. It should not be kept going merely to give the Washington spin doctors the right look they need for the next US Presidential election.
Let’s try Houthis and illegals crossing the border.
EO –
My take is that the US is stark raving M. A. D.
See my silly posts below on the new Miss Armerica. I wasn’t kidding. I think the entire pageant and it’s winner and her preçis were ordered up Madman Central which is presently hovering over the Black and Baltic Seas, the Red and Eastern Mediterranean Seas, the South China Sea etc.
They don’t seem to understand the threat telegraphed by Mr Patrushev if I am not mistaken. Nixon is on tape telling Kissinger: “If anyone uses germs on us we nuke ’em.” Stark raving insane lunatics with unlimited amounts of money to dig deep holes in their palatial estates and private islands.
Airports.
https://scrippsnews.com/stories/officials-warn-of-measles-exposure-at-dulles-reagan-airports/
Officials warn of measles exposure at Dulles, Reagan airports
Measles is highly contagious and spreads through the air from infected people, with symptoms beginning seven to 14 days after exposure.
Speaking of the Air Force ..
Madison Marsh is Miss America. A USAF Pilot and Harvard student.
Madison .. MAD Is On. (Mutually Assured Destruction).
Marsh. Mars H. God of War. Marshy, boggy. Madison was a president in case you forgot about Kamala Harris.
Who still believes America is a democracy?
Who believes that it’s not a military dictatorship?
Liberty Leading the People. Athena. Nike. Look at the pics.
https://news.sky.com/story/us-air-force-pilot-becomes-first-active-duty-military-service-member-to-win-miss-america-13049474
US Air Force pilot becomes first active-duty military service member to win Miss America.
Madison Marsh, a 22-year-old second lieutenant who represented the state of Colorado, says she was pleased to show “the world that women can do anything” after her victory in the annual national pageant.
2nd Lt Marsh, who has a degree in physics and is a master’s student at Harvard Kennedy School in Cambridge, Massachusetts, represented the state of Colorado.
She also devotes her time to fighting pancreatic cancer after losing her mum to the disease in 2018, according to Miss America’s Facebook page. (More at link).
———————————
Mr Big: F&L – Why do you hate everything?
F&L: I’m not sure if I do actually. Any other questions?
Mr Big: No, not at the moment, thanks.
Sorry guys, grunts, everyone. The secret message has been decoded by none other than the team of F&L and TTG.
The secret message is: MADISON MARSH
Which means: MAD is ON, (so) March.
Please keep in mind that MAD stands for Mutually Assured Destruction. And the clever trick which our supercomputers only needed six hours of computing time to decipher is that the S in Marsh is the Cyrillic sibilant C, yielding March. But does it refer to a walk in a military manner (our preferred take) or the 3rd month of the year?
So it looks like the Air Force (USAF, that is) has decided – full speed ahead vs Russia and who cares (?) because of MAD. Note that not only do you now have the answer to this completion test:
Fill in the blank:
Mickey Mouse, Mickey Mantle, Mister Magoo, Marilyn Monroe, _______
But Miss America also studied physics at the University level so she’ll have read about parabolic arcs nuclear fission and fusion! Would we be out of line to mention that she’s a blonde? A lady Clairol blonde a silky shiny blonde or another sort of blonde?
Pasted from Telegram. Yes it has propaganda content, but then Trump won big in Iowa. How does Joe Biden possibly defeat him in a fair race?
A) Fair race – you cannot be serious.
B) By cheating and ordering it to be called a fair race anyway in the newspapers and on TV or else.
C) He doesn’t, so Trump wins.
Now ask yourself this one simple question to which the answer is “Yes, absolutely, 100%.”
Question: During this very long period of troubles and war – has the billionaire class prospered wondrously?
————————–
https://t.me/logikamarkova/9905
“Kurdish Israeli Prigozhin” was destroyed as a result of an Iranian missile attack on Iraq. His name was Zeii, but now the name is not important, since he is no longer there. But he has a powerful PMC, with former US and Israeli military personnel serving as commanders and specialists. The PMC acts in the interests of MOSSAD. Iranians believe that it was this PMC that organized terrorist attacks in Iran on instructions from Israel and the United States. His financing came from the fact that he was allowed to sell oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Israel. So he was destroyed with this blow.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/9904
Iran launched a missile attack on US and Israeli targets in Iraq. More precisely in Iraqi Kurdistan, its capital Erbil. Amazed
1. US military base at the airport in Erbil.
2. US Consulate in Erbil. But not the main building, but a huge new one that was almost built; there were no diplomats there.
3. Headquarters of the Kurdish security forces in Erbil. Apparently there was the headquarters of the US and Israeli intelligence services.
4. A major Iraqi businessman, he was central to the oil trade from Iraqi Kurdistan to Israel. And he had his own army. Apparently he was Israel’s main partner and executor there.
5. The IRGC said that this was revenge for the terrorist attack in Iran on a cemetery on the anniversary of the assassination of the head of IRGC operations, General Soleimani, by US and Israeli intelligence services.
6. All at midnight Moscow time. There is no reaction from the US and Israel yet.
IRGC launching 24 ballistic missiles into Syria and Iraq? Wog on wog action (apart from a few MOSSAD headaches) – not news.
I’d also suggest a possibility D) ’47 never happens and instead the reign of the Thirty Technocratic Tyrants begins.
TTG – Not saying you omitted this knowingly but at nearly the same time as this airplane disaster Russia suffered a humongous fire which destroyed one of its largest if not largest Wildberries distribution centers. That’s the Russian Amazon analogue. You can see one photo here below on Yahoo – searches will yield many other apocalyptic shots. Attacks continue on Voronezh which is inside Russia, 380 miles from Kiev with population over 2 million with Kharkov in between (Distances roughly comparable to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NYC). My point? You’re not getting across the full impact with your military only focus. I don’t know what they’ve decided to say was the cause of this huge warehouse fire.
https://news.yahoo.com/massive-fire-sweeps-st-petersburg-133509648.html
https://t.me/zonaosoboho/23632
Wildberries continues to search for employees
The marketplace was missing 16 workers from the ill-fated warehouse in Shushary and is currently establishing their whereabouts . The company explained that some of the employees left personal belongings, including phones, in order to quickly and safely evacuate.
Let us remind you that there was a fire on an area of 70 thousand square meters. meters occurred in a warehouse in St. Petersburg on January 13. The fire was extinguished only after more than a day. The amount of property damage from the fire may exceed 10 billion rubles. At the same time, the marketplace did not have permission to put the warehouse into operation from the State Construction Supervision Authority.
Two years into the war and Ukraine finally shoots down a n important Russian aircraft. At this rate they’ll catch up to the ghost of Kiev in another couple years.
So we’re Russian awacs doing the same stupid predictable thing that the Mosckva did before getting sunk? Should have learned that lesson the first time.
Fred,
This is far from the only piece of military hardware destroyed by Ukraine. And don’t forget all the dead Russian soldiers.
The A-50 was doing what an A-50 is supposed to do. All AWACS aircraft are vulnerable when performing their missions. Either the Russians failed to protect the valuable aircraft properly or they truly screwed the pooch and shot it down themselves.
TTG,
The aircraft destruction rate on Russian AWACs is 1 every two years? Yes lots of dead soldiers. I am sure the death count on the Ukrainian side isn’t any better.
Fred,
That one A-50 is part of the 600 plus combat aircraft and helicopters lost by the Russians. That’s a sizable chunk of their total. Ukraine lost a lot, but a lot were replaced by donations from NATO and other countries with similar aircraft. Russian losses in tanks and AFVs is far worse. Ukraine has more working tanks and AFVs than when the war started, many donated by Russia.
TTG,
They lost 1 awacs in two years. As you point out, Ukraine can not defend itself without all the NATO countries giving them guns and money. Only thing missing is the lawyers who will ‘clean up all the details’. But that’s a different song, and the Borg prefer their fairy tale.
It’s long but measured, very sober and with a touch of bemusement – Galeotti is the foremost western expert on Russia and certainly the most intelligent, cultured and nuanced.
Why Putin’s Downfall Has Already Started | Mark Galeotti
https://youtu.be/MAOGIw4fTHg
Intro
01:04 – Why Experts Failed to Predict Russian Invasion
06:39 – Does Putin Have A Long-Term Strategy?
08:58 – The Surprising Aspects of Russian Invasion
15:16 – How Has Russia Changed Since the War Began
18:14 – How Strong Is Putin’s Regime?
24:50 – Can Putin Ever End the War?
29:20 – Do Russian Elites Support the War?
36:08 – Has Russian Leadership Learned from Its Mistakes?
45:30 – Will Putin Invade the Baltics?
52:30 – What Should Be Our Russia Strategy?
But F&L! Galeotti?
One of the most respected and credible of our Russia experts. True. He’s pretty well the best we’ve got in that line. When such as Galeotti speak we English shut up and listen respectfully.
Which is why we’ve got ourselves into such an appalling mess and the dumbass Euros with us.
Question 1. Why did Putin invade?
Let’s put 80,000 hairy chested Ukrainians on the border with the Donbass. Trained, armed and ready to go in. Let’s pour artillery fire into the Donbass non stop. Wonder if anything’ll happen. Oh Gosh! Just look at that! The Russians have moved to pre-empt a possible attack! Whoever would have thought they’d do that.
“Gosh”, regrettably, being the expletive the more simpering type of English use.
Question 2. Why didn’t the Russians blast their way into Kiev?
Because they never intended to. Instead they ran a very neat little operation the purpose of which I’m not sure our “Russia experts” understand even now. I doubt they ever will, common sense being a commodity in desperately short supply among the simpering types.
And Galeotti is or was an advisor to the UK FCDO. The equivalent of the US State Department no less. Which itself is crammed with its own set of Russia experts of like quality.
And these are our Western foreign policy gurus. We are doomed, doomed I tell you.
F&L – bit of backup. An alternative view to Galeotti’s. Acknowledgment to “Scorpion” on MOA who found it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVgqxebcVYQ
Most of it obvious the year before last, though I believe the Russian objectives were very much more open ended than this account allows for. Still are.
It’s of interest to me because elsewhere I set out my own view of “what’s happening over there”. That in response to someone who was, like Galeotti, scornful of the Russian actions so far and didn’t think they’d come to much – ” .. the mighty invincible Russian army is incapable of conquering a tiny speck on the map …”.
That’s a dangerous misunderstanding but one that many in the West share, so I replied to the assertion that the Russians were “incapable of conquering a tiny speck on the map:-
” Not long after the start of the SMO, around mid ’22, the same thing puzzled me. When looking at modern warfare we’re used to seeing big dramatic manoeuvres, “Big Arrow Offensives”, they’re sometimes termed, and those particularly in this region of the world. Vast armies sweeping across the steppes, or getting driven back and forth, but always movement, always something happening.
There was a bit of that at the very start of the SMO. Quite a lot of dramatic stuff happened very quickly. A smallish Russian force swept into action and pretty well gutted the then Ukrainian army. After that?
After that, nothing much seemed to be happening. Couldn’t make it out. The Russian army is pretty big but all I saw was a few regulars deployed and the LDNR forces and the Chechens and Dagestanis, all seeming to be quite uninterested in purposeful forward movement.
I’m not military so at that time I looked up Verdun in the Imperial War Museum library. It was all laid out. Falkenhayn had intended to use his artillery advantage to just sit where he was and wipe out the troops sent against him. He knew they’d be sent against him because Verdun was a prestige location.
It sort of worked, the Falkenhayn scenario. The French army was never the same again, the losses they took. But it didn’t really work for Falkenhayn because he also took heavy losses.
The Russians employed the same approach after the initial part of the SMO but more successfully. This was well before the “Surovikin line” was set up but they could rely on Kiev just keeping on sending men in up against their guns. If the Russians couldn’t hold an area without risking heavy casualties themselves they simply retreated to a line easier to hold and decimated the opposing troops as they did so. What we were told were the Russian defeats around Kharkov and Kherson had only the effect of further depleting the Kiev forces: Ukrainian casualties on both occasions were severe.
In ’22 you couldn’t explain any of this, not in England. It was clear the Russians weren’t moving forward much if at all. The obvious conclusion was that that was because they were incompetent or weren’t up to it. But the real picture was quite otherwise. They were holding back much of their forces in case NATO came in directly (still are, one suspects). They were also, from what’s been said since, making use of the time to restructure their army. And with the forces they chose to deploy along the front they were methodically doing what Falkenhayn had intended to do.
The later Ukrainian “counter-offensive” led to more of the same but worse. The slaughter there was appalling though its extent is only just beginning to emerge. Russian casualties at the time were in contrast significantly lighter.
It’s changed a little now because the Kiev forces are no longer being sent in to make do or die attacks. The Russians are therefore now doing what Shoigu has termed “active defence”. That is, pushing forward to no great extent but enough to force Kiev to keep on sending in reserves, those reserves also being destroyed resulting in casualties greatly in excess of those the Russians are taking.
The “Falkenhayn scenario” doesn’t come cheap. The Russian casualties are heavier than the Mediazone estimates tell us because those Mediazone estimates only count the dead, and not all of them at that. Such figures as can be obtained of Ukrainian casualties count not only the dead but those permanently maimed and thus unable to return to active service. Even so, at some cost to themselves the Russians have done what they set out to do from the start: kill as many as they can while husbanding their own troops.
I think the Russian thinking behind this is as simple as it is brutal. They are up against the combined West. Exhaust the ammunition and equipment the West can supply and dispose of as many Western troops as possible. Those troops, of course, being in the main the unfortunate Ukrainian proxies we use for this assault on Russia. That callous use of the Ukrainians as our proxies being the “crime” that “b” of MOA described it as so long ago.
Western ISR and technical assistance and the use of recently developed weaponry makes the “Big Arrow” offensives we in the West are used to seeing very casualty heavy indeed, so I’d guess that the Russians will continue to dispose of our proxies as economically as possible for as long as those proxies are sent in to be disposed of. But that’s only a guess. It could be that once that “Falkenhayn scenario” has been played out to the limit the Russians will move in quickly. It could be that the Kiev government will fall apart first.
I see none daring to predict which but the main point here is that the notion we in the West have become accustomed to, that ” … the mighty invincible Russian army is incapable of conquering a tiny speck on the map …” is a notion based on an incorrect appreciation of what the Russians are actually doing over there. The Russians are playing the hand they’ve been given to play rather more purposefully and effectively than we in the West have yet grasped.”
The Trukhan interview confirms this summary in detail and is consistent with what we saw happen on the ground at the time. It’s why I believe we’re in a lot more trouble, and our unfortunate proxies too, than our Galeottis and your equivalents in the States have yet grasped.
EO,
I think your analysis is pretty good and is what I have thought myself. That said, the Russian strategy is not without risk, especially politically within Russia. As NATO responds to the frustrating situation with increased attacks on Russia itself and Crimea, there will be calls to get a government in the Kremlin that can put an end to the insults. Good luck explaining the strategy deployed to date to the angry mobs.
I also think that the strategy only developed after their initial attack failed to accomplish its objective; which was a negotiation with Kiev.
And, at the risk of sounding like a broken record – what is Russia’s end game? What security will they have gained, for all of the cost, by extending their borders? They are still bumping up against NATO. Maybe NATO will be exhausted later this year or the next, but what about ten years from now? Or maybe NATO won’t be exhausted. I don’t see the Poles, Lithuanians, etc expending too much on the effort so far. It’s mostly been the US, UK and Germany (and French to a lesser degree). It’s almost as if the other Slavs and the Nordics are being held in reserve. Remember, as much as the war is wearing down Ukraine and the west, it’s also wearing down Russia, to what extent, I can’t assess, but it must be materially and in terms of will.
Eric Newhill
I cannot see the EU surviving another 2 years of this – and if it goes NATO, at least in its present form, will go with it. The war and second order consequences (e.g. NS2) are slowly tearing the EU apart. Nationalism is resurgent across Europe, e.g. the AfD in Germany is now quite openly espousing its policy to repatriate “millions” of immigrants. The engine of the EU is Germany’s economy and this is now shrinking at a faster rate that Russia’s is growing. How much long will Germans allow the Green fanatics to destroy their children’s future? Discontent, which is led by farmers presently, is growing rapidly. And in Slovakia, Fico recently backed Orban’s position on vetoing further EU funding for Ukraine – against a background of moves afoot to withdraw Hungary’s voting rights over the issue. This is at the heart of the issue: a body of 27 nation states, each with a veto on all decisions, is impossibly to sustain under conditions of stress – as exist now. But the alternative is to federalize the organization and that risks its disintegration.
My money is on Russia holding together longer than the EU and thus NATO.
Barbara Ann,
I am surprised the EU has held together as long as it has. That said, I think the end of the EU and NATO will be a long time coming, much longer than two years. I used to be like you and see an inevitable check mate a dozen or more moves ahead and thus declare the game over immediately. I’ve learned that just because I see it, doesn’t mean everyone else does (they usually don’t) and fools will continue to play a losing game – even doubling down in the process – until reality undeniably delivers the fatal blow right on their heads.
The tractors will be ignored and then scattered to their homes just as the Canadian truckers were. There will be no decisive revolution. No storming the Bastille. Just a long, slow roll towards nationalism in those countries – primarily in eastern Europe – who’s fundamental character has not been totally blurred out by mass immigration from the third world and the modern woke brainwashing that passes for an education system.
In the blurred out countries, western Europe and the UK, there will be increasing financial/economic troubles – but the media will keep telling everyone to stay calm because it’s all under control and the people will believe it because they want to. The frog will slowly boil and boiling will eventually culminate in a genocide of the ancestors of the original inhabitants of Europe, by the newly arrived wogs, who don’t have the background, ethics, intelligence or morality to create the value that the original inhabitants did and, thus, will seek to pillage whatever remains for themselves (as they always do). I do not believe that the originals have sufficient will or courage to preserve themselves. They have become divorced from nature, overly-domesticated, lacking in raw instinct and, at the other end of the spectrum, divorced the enlightenment and faith. They are mindless blobs, shallow dullards with no desire to live, let alone thrive. The evidence is clear that they’re already proceeding towards exactly what I outlined with idiotic population and economy ravaging green policies, low birth rates, massive waves of wog immigration, abandonment of the church. I get it, believe me I do. It’s just that I think it will take a lot more time – certainly more than two years – for their self-destruction to become a fait accompli.
Yes. I agree that Russia will hold together much longer. They have order, culture, faith, limited wogs. I guess I’ve been thinking out loud here. I revise my opinion thanks to your input getting my brain working in the right direction. Russia can outlast Europe (and probably the US, which is heading the same way as Europe). You are correct.
Answering my own question, Russia’s end game is to wait for the EU/NATO to complete their self-destruction, though I think that is at least 20 years out. Still, a smart leadership does plan for the long-term.
I guess in the above context, the loss of a single stupid AWACS means nothing.
Barbara Ann,
A short addendum – Yes, the tractor drivers, truckers, and a few others are the last dying gasps of old Europe. Sure, they’re rebelling, albeit in a small weak way. As I said, they will be dispersed and the media will tell all the dullards – who are the vast majority – that the tractor drivers are bad guys who should be shunned for various reasons of moral rot, like they are harming the earth with greenhouse gasses, are capitalists, racists and whatever other words and phrases the dullards are programmed to be hung up on in their infantile quest to be seen as virtuous in the most shallow and lazy ways possible by their fellow members of the blob.
Barbara Ann
“But the alternative is to federalize the organization and that risks its disintegration.”
There is another alternative. To turn it into a dictatorship. This is the direction they are trying to take it into. The bureaucrats “earn” a very good living and are drunk with power. They want more of both, money and power.
EU will not end in 2 years but this project has some very serious issues to resolve if it is to survive longterm.
Eric – I’d guessed a while back you were of that way of thinking too. As to what the Russians will do afterwards, I’d guess they’ll do what they were doing before. To borrow Bill Roche’s term, “Ride East.”
That where they saw the future for themselves before 2022 and even more so now. We in Borrell’s European “Garden” think the “Jungle” – Borrells dismissive term for the non-European world – still rotates around us.
It doesn’t, not any more. Have said for ages that what the Russians have been doing is no more than shutting the door on a played out Europe and making sure that door has locks.
The English/Canadian academic Professor Robinson, a man who read the post 2014 events more accurately than most so has a good pedigree, examined a little while ago this shift in Russian thinking. I think it may be permanent.
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/russia-at-a-turning-point
F&L, “01:04 – Why Experts Failed to Predict Russian Invasion” ????
As I recall, USA intell thru Biden administration were telling Ukraine govt officials that Russia was going to invade.
AP News
https://apnews.com › article › russia-ukraine-boris-joh…
Feb 11, 2022 — The Biden administration is escalating its warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying it could take place at any time.
Newsweek
https://www.newsweek.com › … › International Affairs
Feb 23, 2022 — U.S. officials told Newsweek that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been informed a full Russian invasion involving airstrikes, …
Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com › interactive › ukrai…
Aug 16, 2022 — Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion. President …
al,
The Ukrainians were waiting for the Russian brigades to fully organize into BTGs (battalion tactical groups) as an indication that an invasion was truly imminent. Don’t know whether it was a conscious decision by the Russians not to follow their doctrine or just a lack of organization.
The Ukrainians also expected the main Russian thrust would come through the DNR/LNR. That’s why the bulk of their regular ground forces were manning the Donbas LOC.
TTG,
The nature of the Feb 22 attack indicates the Russians assumed little to no resistance, “They will welcome us a liberators!” Cheney/Rumsfeldian self-delusional thinking. Perhaps that explains why they abandoned conventional doctrine.
Live and learn..they say.
Mark Logan – “They will welcome us as liberators” is the Girkin/Strelkov delusion. I saw him set it out in a long discussion programme he took part in years ago. In some recent statements he said something similar. His idea was that Ukraine was full of Russian speakers (true) who were all hoping to be liberated and united with Mother Russian (false). People like Ishchenko and Sleboda offer us a better assessment of the population mix.
Lugansk, Odessa, Lvov – there’s enormous variation there and though the precise nature of that variation is a matter for the specialist or the native to explain, the rest of us could at least acknowledge that any Strelkov type simplification is seriously misleading.
As for loyalties, there are many in Ukraine, Russian speaking or not, who don’t like the administration we gave them. An increasing number, too, who don’t want to end up in the dead end that administration is heading towards. Maybe also, since there has to be a tug of war in the country with the EU/NATO pulling one way and Russia the other, many Ukrainians would find the Russian bet the safer one; but that would be on economic and security grounds. That’s not a burning desire of all Ukrainians to be united with the Motherland.
We are also wrong when we attribute the Strelkov view to the Putin administration. The Western press has an amateurish habit of focusing on these fringe figures and pretending that’s a full analysis. What Putin’s after is to prevent Ukraine or any part of it being used by the EU/NATO as a means of getting at Russia.
We all heard the recent statements by American politicians that keeping the Ukrainian conflict going was a cheap and cost effective way of degrading Russian military capability. These fools don’t realise that the Russians hear such statements too. And think “Not if we have anything to do with it.”
Given that Minsk 2, which would have been a good way of keeping Ukraine together, was no more than a deception practiced by Merkel/Scholz and Hollande/Macron, the Russians will therefore not take much notice of any further deceptions our politicians are meditating. Barring nuclear Ukraine’s going to be neutralised. It’s no longer going to be a cheap way of damaging Russia.
The undeniable fact is that Washington and Berlin/Brussels, and Westminster too, are crammed with politicians who are far more interested in attacking Russia than in running their own countries competently. Listen to them talk. They don’t give a tinker’s cuss for the problems that concern most people but they’re wild keen on getting at Russia. Given that, one does not have to be a Putinversteher to understand that if the Russians have any sense at all they’ll put it out of the power of our current crop of politicians to use Ukraine for that purpose in the future.
As for Strelkov, I expect he’s right in to a degree when it comes to the Kharkov-Odessa arc, especially since an increasing number of the really hard line ultra-nationalists will be dead or in Germany. But he’s plain wrong when it comes to most of the rest. How to sort that out is now Putin’s problem. But it’ll get sorted out in a way that’ll block the door for further interference by our politicians.
So all we’re really seeing here apart from the tragedy of so many deaths is Mr Putin finally telling the Mrs Nulands to go pound sand. We shouldn’t let our Mrs Nulands loose in the region in the first place, if we don’t like the results.
al
Good point, they – the US Intel – were predicting it. However it’s become a feature of the subculture of the commentariat to pretend that “no one predicted it” because the commentariat didn’t (for the most part). If you recall it’s fashionable to ignore the so-called official intelligence community because its fashionable to say they always mislead and deceive everyone. And There’s quite a bit of truth to that. So whenever Biden or Sullivan said the Russians were going to invade you had to ignore that or publicly express great skepticism – it turns out that the ring of commentators who were making all the videos and writing essays — they were mostly saying Putin wasn’t going to invade. That was the dynamic which led to the question addressed to Galeotti being considered reasonable. FWIW I thought the invasion would occur even though ideologically I disagree strongly with Biden, Sullivan & Blinken, it had nothing to do with ideologicaly anyway but it bears pointing out that several superior thinkers such as Mearsheimer and Galeotti disagreed publicly, I think, with the Biden administration appraisal, mostly because they didn’t want to add their own prestige to that appraisal – for example that appraisal is very flawed if you really look at it in detail — that appraisal said that the Baltics were next and that Putin was set on reconstituting the USSR which is wrong twice. It.was only correct in that he did actually invade eventually but everything else was seriously wrong in such a serious fashion that oodles of ensuing poor policy decisions would follow. Thus these guys painted themselves into the “no he won’t invade” corner. A glaring illustration is to simply recall that the officials who predicted invasion also mostly predicted that the Russians would roll over Ukraine quickly which shows how wrong they were about almost everything. The entire course of events was shot through with dirtyness – for example they told everyone that Russia would win in a walk over because they in fact wanted very badly for Putin to invade. And furthermore more they held all the aces and levers which remain opaque to this day, meaning things done behind the scenes which essentially forced Putin’s hand. If I keep predicting that I can make you leave your cabin and I have an invisible gun which shoots invisible bullets into your cabin which no one knows about or dare mention, then I am no great shakes as a prophet or oddsmaker if my prediction that you will leave your cabin comes true.
Alexey Arestovich, former presidential spokesman for Zelensky gave an interesting interview.
It is in English (with subtitles).
It goes into a lot of things including some of the root causes of the conflict (according to him).
Some excerpts:
“The main problem of Ukraine is that some politicians started in 1991 to transform Ukraine from a poly-cultural and poly-national state, into a more mono-ethnic and mono-cultural country, like most of European countries like Poland.”
“But it means the loss of territory that is completely different — Russian speaking territory, for example, in the East of Ukraine and the South of Ukraine. And a lot of Ukrainians, these 4.5 million Ukrainians who didn’t want to be recruited by the state, they didn’t want to be recruited for this political idea.
This was not a problem of social contract, about good pensions for retired military security or anything, it is question of the future of Ukraine. I think a lot of Ukrainians do not be want to be part of a project of a mononation.”
“…my great criticism of what has happened in Ukraine over the last year, during the emotional trauma of the war, is this idea of Ukrainian nationalism which has divided Ukraine into different people: the Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers as a second class of people.
It’s the main dangerous idea and a worse danger than Russian military aggression, because nobody from this 80% of people wants to die for a system in which they are people of a second class.”
Comment:
Basically he now champions an idea of Ukraine like Switzerland. A multi ethnic, multi lingual, neutral state that would be like a bridge between East and West.
I think there is little chance for that now. Too much blood has been spilt.
Forgot to include the link to Arestovich interview
video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sehuAOw0-NI
transcript:
https://unherd.com/2024/01/oleksiy-arestovych-zelenskyys-challenger/
Fighting intensifies In Ukraines East
Around Bakmut as Russia steps up offensive Freezing weather and lack of Ammo causing Ukraine troops to dig in on the Defensive … Mobile weapons are stuck Bogged down skiding around on Ice
Two Large supply Delivery’s have been delayed
Jim
I See Chatter that a Truce may be in the Works…Both Sides,..Recent Published Reports..I Can see Conditions that would Motivate Both Sides…Including
The Sweden..Finland Addition…
I Can See Ukrain Joining THe EU..But not NATO..To much of a Fuse in a Live Grenade…
So Create FY 2024 EU Stability..Economic and Political..
Russia Can Go Back…And Regroup..Spend a Year to Bury its Dead..And Look
Forward..to Moving on to the Middle East..in 2025..
jim
Items…The Bundestag Did Vote NOT to Send Ukraines Air Force the TOP SECRET
German TAURUS Missile…
There Was a Extreme Frigid Cold Weather Band that went Across the Entire Middle of Germany East to West…Just the the One across the United States…It Brought Extreme Cold and Solid thick Ice to all of Southern Germany..And into The Ukraine..
A United States Navy Lockheed EC-121M Warning Star… Our First AWACs made ontp Super Connies……Was SHOT DOWN by a North Kporean Mig-21 over the Sea of Japan in 1969….ALL 31 Americans aboard were Killed…
Richard M. NIXON…Did Not Respond..To Avoid a Confrontation With that
World Super Power…N.Korea…Ah..What American Ship is That down Along
The Waterfront…Ah..Wasnt another Plane Forced Down..by China..
Ah Lets Make a Deal on the Border. And Sell off the Rest of the Strategic Reserves..
and Flop around..Like Fish Do…Shushi…
jim
Good article at Forbes regarding the A-50 shoot-down. It presents a theory by Austria’s Tom Cooper that it was what used to be called a flak trap. The trap was deliberately set by earlier attacks on radar sites in Crimea. Hence getting the Russkii Air Force to move their A-50 patrol routes closer, where before they had been patrolling much further south. He surmises it was Patriot PAC-2 missiles that have a 90 mile range. He also suggests it may have been one of Ukraine’s FrankenSAMs (S300 radar/Patriot launcher). All only a theory, but it seems more based on reality than some of the shot-in-the-dark guesstimates going around.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/16/ukrainian-crews-set-a-complex-missile-trap-for-russias-best-radar-plane/?sh=3b422ff63566
Ukraine apparently has other of these hybrid FrankenSAMs. A Ukrainian idea that became real via a joint Ukraine/US engineering project. It includes short range Soviet era BUK systems launching more accurate US Sea Sparrows – or other Soviet radar systems tied in with US Sidewinder missiles.
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On a sheet of Whitehouse stationary, two notes briefly define two words each beginning with the letter ‘R’ are typed, under the capitalized words: ATTENTION 2024 ELECTION CAMPAIGN – URGENT & TOP SECRET.
We overhear a conversation which took place in the early morning hours immediately after the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus. Vice President Kamala Harris is speaking with a man whose voice has been attributed by a team of experts as belonging to US President President Joe Biden, originally from Scranton Pennsylvania and then the state Delaware where he served as a United States Senator before becoming Vice President during the eight years of the presidency of Barack H Obama.
Note 1- Rex – Latin word for King, male sovereign.
Note 2- Rump – hindquarters, leftovers, remainder, buttocks, bum, buns, a*s
Kamala – Are we going to pay F&L the $50 million he is asking?
Joe – I don’t know, $50 million for what?
Kamala – It’s a package – a video with an essay, titled “How a famous Dinosaur’s nickname caught on and why the Biden administration should pay me $50 million.”
Joe – I’m not following you, Kamala, what’s the deal?
Kamala – Something about T Rex and Donald Trump and a derogatory nickname, but I can’t figure it out myself. It’s being marketed as a combination one-two punch depth charge and torpedo salvo which can sink his election chances forever with one silly expression.
Joe – OK, Kamala, let me know once you’ve figured it out. $50 million is pocket change if it finishes off that guy.
———————
Can you come to the assistance of our Vice President Kamala Harris and tell her what the one silly expression might be and possibly save the Joe Biden for President in 2024 campaign $50 million, not to mention simultaneously depriving F&L of his deviously sought payday? Remember – you may be saving democracy.
TTG: When are you going to post something about Yemen.
Sal Mercogliano is a pro-US-dude, BUT a maritime historian.
His last show, some 20-minutes. Bottom line…
1) WAR RISK INSURANCE, will not cover US, UK or Israeli ships at all !!!
2) Shipping companies are now making money like they never dreamed possible.
[i imagine they forced the issue early on to get more money]
3) So, the US & UK navies are essentially assisting Russian and Chinese ships pass thru the Red Sea.
What is Going on With Shipping?
LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH93uJ3EBzU
Hersh makes great sense today especially here:
“Biden and his aids … . refused to assure Russian President Vladimir Putin before he pulled the trigger that the United States would never support Ukraine’s entry into NATO. That might have been enough, with fuller elaboration, to keep the Russian ruler from launching a war that was far from necessary.”
I’ll include this link to the Unherd interview with Arestovich (which I haven’t watched yet) for EO especially because it speaks to his day after focus (not because Unherd is British). Hersh really found a beautiful way to frame the entire tragedy and its stupidity and waste in one simple sentence, distilling hours of lectures into 5 seconds. And Slavlands on substack discusses it too – full interview summary by Unherd here: https://unherd.com/2024/01/oleksiy-arestovych-zelenskyys-challenger/
Seymour Hersh: The Political Costs of Biden’s Wars.
As another showdown with Trump looms, Biden’s record abroad is his biggest liability.
https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/the-political-costs-of-bidens-wars
https://open.substack.com/pub/slavlandchronicles/p/arestovych-we-opened-a-champagne
Oleksiy Arestovych – Zelensky’s Challenger | Unherd
https://youtu.be/sehuAOw0-NI