Soledar – TTG

Russian forces’ likely capture of Soledar on January 11 is not an operationally significant development and is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage posted on January 11 and 12 indicates that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Soledar, and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Sil in Donetsk Oblast—a settlement over a kilometer northwest of Soledar and beyond previous Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian General Staff and other senior military sources largely did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults against Soledar on January 12 as they have previously. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are still clearing Soledar of remaining Ukrainian forces as of January 12. Russian milbloggers posted footage on January 12 of Wagner Group fighters freely walking in Soledar and claimed that they visited the settlement alongside Russian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has not announced that Russian forces have captured Soledar, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov congratulated Russian forces for successful offensive operations in the settlement. All available evidence indicates Ukrainian forces no longer maintain an organized defense in Soledar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s January 12 statement that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Soledar may be referring to defensive positions near but not in Soledar.

Russian information operations have over exaggerated the importance of Soledar, which is at best a Russian Pyrrhic tactical victory. ISW continues to assess that the capture of Soledar—a settlement smaller than 5.5 square miles—will not enable Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut nor better position Russian forces to encircle the city in the short term. Russian forces likely captured Soledar after committing significant resources to a highly attritional tactical victory which will accelerate degraded Russian forces’ likely culmination near Bakhmut. Russian forces may decide to maintain a consistently high pace of assaults in the Bakhmut area, but Russian forces’ degraded combat power and cumulative exhaustion will prevent these assaults from producing operationally significant results.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2023

Comment: Prigozhin was claiming that Soledar was in his Wagner Group’s hands on 10 January and that the Ukrainian defenders were surrounded, surrendered or killed. It was a dramatic statement along with a dramatic photo of a tac’ed up Prigozhin with some of his boys in a mine tunnel. That photo could have been taken in a peripheral tunnel of the Soledar salt mines. It certainly wasn’t one of the main tunnels where concerts were often held prior to this war. It was more likely taken in some other mine tunnel in Donetsk. Prigozhin is certainly milking his conquest or near conquest of Soledar for all that it’s worth. A victory here is good news for the Kremlin. It would be even better news for Prigozhin’s prospects in the ongoing Kremlin palace intrigues.

As ISW explains, the capture of Soledar is not of great military significance, especially at the cost involved. However, I believe the capture of those expansive mine tunnels would give Prigozhin a well protected area to amass ammunition and other supplies and a place to house his mercenaries, mobiks and convict soldiers where the HIMARS can’t hit them. The mine entrances may not be so invulnerable though.  And the Ukrainians already know exactly where they are located.

TTG

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101 Responses to Soledar – TTG

  1. borko says:

    This is a pretty significant victory for the Russians. Yes the Russians are suffering heavy losses but so are Ukrainians. Ukraine tried really really hard to hold on to it and failed.

    How many combat troops does Wagner field anyway ?

    • TTG says:

      borko,

      Lower estimates are 20,000 in Ukraine. Last summer they were still only several thousand at best before they embarked on a numbers over quality veterans expansion. That doesn’t include the 20,000 or so convicts fighting in Ukraine. Not all of them are under Wagner Group control, but a large number are.

      • borko says:

        TTG

        That is a lot. I’ve seen some figures about 40k troops but was sceptical. Combat success, propaganda and big $$ will draw in more fighters to their cause.

        Looks like the Russians are stepping up their game, in training, number of troops and military production. We stopped hearing about senior officers getting killed every other day. They are maintaining constant pressure and even managing to win important victories.

        The Ukraine is also going to receive a lot of desperately needed hardware and training.

        It looks like this year of conflict is going to be much worse than the previous one.

        • TTG says:

          borko,

          The Russians are stepping up their game in numbers and appear to be ready to go much further with the next mobilization. Tactics are adjusted accordingly away from any attempt at combined arms maneuver warfare to repeated human wave assaults and as much artillery support as they can muster. These wave assaults are a little more sophisticated than what we see in the movies. The assaults are smaller groups that rush forward, try to dig in before dying and identify Ukrainian positions in the process. the next wave moves to where the last wave died and keeps digging. The process continues until there’s no more zergs to rush forward or the Ukrainian have to pull back for good. These tactics require the 300K mobilization that’s planned.

          The Ukrainians adjust by quickly retreating from identified positions to avoid concentrated artillery strikes and. just as quickly, advance back to those positions during lulls in the Wagnerian zerg rushes. Ukrainian strategy is to continue striking Russian logistics and command and control nodes until they can assemble sufficient forces for strong combined arms thrusts to sever Russian lines of communication. This may start before the spring thaw or it will be in the summer.

          I don’t think Russia will collapse, but the Russian Army in Ukraine may due to Ukrainian deep strikes and Russia’s inability to keep her army supplied. The sanctions are working in that respect. China’s unwillingness to roll in Putin’s stink in another big factor.

          • Fred says:

            “The sanctions are working in that respect.”

            What is the impact on Europe?

          • Bill Roche says:

            Six months ago I d/n think the Wagner forces were effective. I was wrong. Is Prigozhin, and his personal army, a guarantor for Putin (Wagner as Putin’s “Palace Guard”), or is Prigozhin competition for Putin.

          • borko says:

            Bill

            Apparently they have grown in size from thousands to tens of thousands. Zerg rush or no, they have managed to zerg their way into places like Popasna and Soledar and are still on the offensive.
            The Colonel did warn some time ago that they are a threat and need to be focused on as one of the few remaining units capable of offensive operation.

          • JamesT says:

            borko

            I had forgotten that the Colonel had called that ahead of time. I know the guy is smart, but geez.

          • Peter Hug says:

            Fred –
            It looks like Germany will be OK as far as natural gas goes at any rate (actually not quite what I expected).
            https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63709352

          • Matthew says:

            TTG: This is nonsense. Soledar and Bakhmut are of great importance to Keeeev—and Keeev lost–badly.

            Just admit the obvious.

          • TTG says:

            Matthew,

            It’s true that Soledar and Bakhmut are important to Kyiv as is every inch of Ukrainian soil. Severodonetsk is also important, but its loss did not affect the course of the war. In my opinion, Bakhmut’s military importance is that it is a stepping stone on the way to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Taking Kramatorsk would go a long way in accomplishing one of Putin’s goals of conquering all of Donetsk Oblast. So I agree. To say Soledar and Bakhmut are of no importance is just wrong.

  2. Jake says:

    A good thing that the Russians already ran out of precision weapons in April, and surrendered all those tanks and weapon systems to Ukraine in all those lost battles, so NATO won’t have to exhaust itself to come to the rescue. This CIA-lady running that agency was spot-on when she predicted both sides would refrain from anything big, since the loss of Soledar is nothing to worry about, and likely staged. LOL.

    No narrative is going to change the outcome, and by the looks of it there is plenty of pain coming ‘our’ way, if this recent shuffle at the top of the military in Russia is in preparation of ‘something big’, after they finished mobilizing and retraining, as various commentators believe. Spinning the facts in an ‘Orwellian’ manner won’t impress the Russians, but so far it does serve those who want to make Ukraine and Europe suffer. And that is not funny at all. Less so if you happen to live in Ukraine or Europe.

    • Babeltuap says:

      Those tunnels need ventilation. Parts of them have been used for scientific studies on neutrinos. I seriously doubt anyone can go deep in the tunnels without consistent power and maintenance.

  3. Leith says:

    Soledar ain’t over yet. It has already lasted longer than the Battle of Stalingrad. And like the Texan said “the opera ain’t over until the fat lady sings.”

    PS – Prigozhin may be crowing, but without support from paratroopers, DPR militia, regular army artillery, and VVS airstrikes the Wagner mercs would have been toast five months ago.

    • wizz says:

      Leith

      The Ukrainian army might be able to take it back but for the moment it looks like they lost control over it.

      A US army vet from Iowa, fighting for Ukrainians and specifically took part in a defence of Soledar had some very harsh words on his twitter account about some of his Ukrainian commanders. He accuses them of incompetence, theft of equipment, selling drugs etc.

      https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/us-vet-fighting-in-ukraine-complaining-about-the-situation-in-ukraine-army.6861257/

      https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/10baj0a/ua_pov_ryan_oleary_american_fighting_for_the/

    • Leith says:

      Wizz –

      It’s he-said-she-said regarding who controls Soledar.
      https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-01-14/ukraine-forces-retain-control-of-soledar-despite-russian-claims-governor-says

      In any case, Soledar and Bakhmut are the wrong battles for Putin. As TTG mentioned it will be a Pyhhric victory if it happens because of massive Russian casualties.

      So which unit is this Iowa veteran serving in? Who else in those volunteer outfits are also complaining of the same thing? He complains of no heavy weapons, but I believe all of the Ukrainian military is complaining of the same thing. And my understanding is that the international legions are all light infantry. Plus many of those volunteer battalions are not commanded by Ukrainians.

      • Eliot says:

        “In any case, Soledar and Bakhmut are the wrong battles for Putin. As TTG mentioned it will be a Pyhhric victory if it happens because of massive Russian casualties.”

        I don’t believe that

        Arestovych said the Russians had a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery in Bahkmut. They’re much heavier equipped.

        – Eliot

        • Leith says:

          And a 100 to 1 disadvantage in accuracy. They pray and spray a lot.

          • borko says:

            Leith

            They also hit sa lot. Listening to many US vets that returned from Ukraine, most have pretty poor opinion of Russian infantry and leadership but pretty high opinion of their artillery.

            As I understand there is a lot of red tape involved in requesting fire support by the junior officers on the ground. This often results in targets being hit long after the “enemy” has left the area.

            That is another difference between the regular army and the Wagner group who reportedly do not have this problem.

        • Peter Hug says:

          I guess the only thing worse than a Pyhrric victory, is a Pyhrric defeat.

    • Babeltuap says:

      I hate Russia but what I hate more than Russia is the WEF, Blackrock and their ESG ruse. All I know is Klaus said Russia set them back. Their planetary conquest is on hold due to staunch competition. Competition is a good thing despite the brutality. Without competition their would be no United States. When competition dies so goes the free speech ally of ideas and solutions. All gone.

  4. Fourth and Long says:

    Cough Topic I’d say but I like having an adorable pottus so much. Pasted below so link unnecessary:
    https://www.instagram.com/p/CnZe6D8N9pO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
    The revelation that President Joe Biden illicitly stored classified materials, including in his garage, is a grave embarrassment to the president, writes Jeremy Scahill, particularly in light of the fact that Democrats have hammered away at Trump for months over the classified documents he retained at Mar-a-Lago. But there is also a relevant story from Biden’s past that bears mentioning.⁠

    The events took place during the administration of Jimmy Carter, when Biden was a rising star in the U.S. Senate and an inaugural member of the Intelligence Committee. Biden colluded with Republicans on the Intelligence Committee to kill the nomination of a CIA critic to be director of the agency. ⁠

    Among the reasons was that the nominee, Ted Sorensen, had admitted to taking classified documents for a biography of his longtime friend John F. Kennedy and had spoken out in defense of Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg. In fact, Biden went so far as to suggest that Sorensen might be subject to prosecution under the Espionage Act.⁠

    Sorensen’s nomination came after a campaign in which Carter promised to wage war against the agency’s “excessive secrecy” and to expose and punish CIA officers who broke the law. ⁠

    As Sorensen recalled, Biden had led him to believe that he had the senator’s “enthusiastic” support, telling him that he was “the best appointment Carter has made.”⁠

    When Sorensen came under attack from Republicans, though, Biden shifted his position and went out of his way to dig up an episode from Sorenson’s past that would serve as a red flag against his confirmation.⁠

    At Sorensen’s confirmation hearing, Biden laid into the nominee. ⁠

    “Quite honestly, I’m not sure whether or not Mr. Sorensen could be indicted or convicted under the espionage statutes,” Biden said, questioning “whether Mr. Sorensen intentionally took advantage of the ambiguities in the law or carelessly ignored the law.” ⁠

    Sorensen later said Biden should be awarded the “prize for political hypocrisy in a town noted for political hypocrisy.”⁠

    Read more from Jeremy Scahill via the link in our bio. ⁠

    • TTG says:

      F&L,

      Yesterday I heard some radio commentator saying that the one thing that should come out of these two consecutive presidential pooch screwings is that the packing and shipping of documents at the end of terms cannot be left in the hands of low level staff flunkies who drew the short straw. This has to be a rigorous process handled by the National Archives and/or some other body. I doubt Trump or Biden deliberately absconded with classified documents. Their staffs screwed up during hectic days.

      I also most people will be surprised about what comprises a SCIF at the national and executive level and how TS/SCI documents are handled at that level. I’ve been in units where those documents were strictly controlled, kept in locked safes, periodically inventoried and records kept of who handled each document. I’ve also been in units where the entire building is a SCIF (that the norm at national level), there are no safes except for SAP material. TS/SCI can be viewed on closed, classified networks and printed at will. No inventory is kept of being viewed, stored, reproduced or destroyed. The handling of TS/SCI material is normalized in such environments. Look at that NSA character who packed away a houseful of classified documents like some run of the mill hoarder packs away newspapers and junk mail.

      • Fred says:

        TTG,

        Biden had zero authority to declassify anything. A raid on his house isn’t going to happen as he’s president, and the raid on his political opponent for 2024 was done solely for that reason.

        • TTG says:

          Fred,

          Biden’s house was already searched and the six pages found were turned over to the FBI. The raid on Trump’s place was done because he refused to hand over presidential records and classified documents after being asked to do so repeatedly and being served a warrant to do so.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            Biden left office in 2016 and had failed to turn any of that over over for years. Is his garage an SCIF? What did he have there when Obama was President and just what did he do with said material?

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            I doubt Biden knew those documents were there all these years. If his DC office wasn’t being cleaned out and his home wasn’t searched, no one would know they were there, including Biden. My gut tells me that’s what happened to Trump as well. Sure he took presidential souvenirs that he claimed as his, but the classified documents probably just got mixed in there in the rush to leave after his coup attempt failed.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            Right, it was a coup attempt but without any military support, riddled with FBI agents who had spied on him for years, and nobody brought guns or ammunition.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Have you no imagination? One doesn’t need the military to stage an insurrection. All that’s needed is a military that refuses to intervene against the insurrectionists.

            Trump appointments to the Pentagon worked to ensure the rioters were not interfered with by the NG for as long as possible. The plan called for the military to seize voting machines and oversee new elections. What FBI agents? Ray Epps? Read his J6 Committee testimony. He was a Trumper who either got cold feet or came to his senses once he reached the steps of the Capitol. Several Capitol rioters have been convicted for carrying firearms on Capitol grounds, but I agree those firearms were not a central or even necessary part of the coup attempt. They weren’t going to shoot Mike Pence. They wanted to hang him.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            Which officers or members of the enlisted ranks have been relieved and arrested for the conduct you suggest? Which federal or state officials in which states where “voting machines were to be siezed and new elections held” have been arrested for their efforts in the so called plot?

            Epps was the guy urging people to go into the building, unlike Trump. When did Epps testify before the J6 committee, which had zero members appointed by the minority party leadership?

            Who has been arrested for trying to hang VP Pence? When were they convicted in court?

            How many of those arrested are still in solitary confinement awaiting trial, which is not in accordinance with the 6th Ammendment “…a public trial without unnecessary delay, the right to a lawyer, the right to an impartial jury, and the right to know who your accusers are and the nature of the charges and evidence against you.” Two years waiting, I believe you will agree, is certainly not a “necessary” delay.

            You have a wonderful imagination, much better than the people who urged on the fraudulent “Whitmer kidnapping”. Are you guys hiring? I hear it pays well. Though that Danchenko guy got a lot more, than the kiddnapping guys, as I believe did “Dr.” Misfud, for their actions in the prior “Russia Collusion” efforts.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Christopher Miller as Trump’s acting SecDef was the chief ditherer in delaying the deployment of the NG to the Capitol for three hours on the afternoon of 6 January. There was no such dithering when BLM was in the streets around the White House. The dithering wasn’t criminal, but Miller and Trump’s other last minute appointees to DoD leadership were out on 20 January.

            Epps wanted people in the Capitol because he thought it would be open to the public as it normally is. He changed his tune once he saw barricades in front of the Capitol and the crowd starting to get ugly. Here’s the whole transcript of his J6 Committee interview.

            https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23558376-20220121_ray-epps

            I don’t know of any of those arrested are in solitary confinement awaiting trial. Do you? I read a story from April 2022 that J6 defendants awaiting trial were housed together in the DC jail. They were forming rival cliques and bullying each other. Sounds like a “Lord of the Flies” situation rather than solitary confinement. The boys can’t give up their cosplaying. There couldn’t have been many left in that section by April 2022. “A spokesperson says, as of September 2, 2021, there were 37 residents charged in the January 6th insurrection still in DC jail.”

            From 28 May 2021: “At least 70% of people charged in the Capitol riot have been released as they wait for trial, according to a Guardian analysis. That high pre-trial release rate stands in stark contrast with the usual detention rates in the federal system, where only 25% of defendants nationwide are typically released before their trial.” Sounds more like the J6 defendants were coddled rather than treated like the majority of defendants in the US. Given that 75% of defendants nationwide remain in pre-trial custody, we do have a serious problem in this country.

          • Sam says:

            TTG,

            Do you recall Biden berating Trump on having the classified docs in Mar-a-lago? That sure didn’t age well.

            “When you saw the photograph of the top secret documents laid out on the floor at Mar-a-Lago, what did you think to yourself looking at that image?” CBS’ Scott Pelley asked.

            “How that could possibly happen, how anyone could be that irresponsible,” Biden responded. “And I thought what data was in there that may compromise sources and methods. By that, I mean, names of people helped or et cetera.”

            The weaponization of DOJ/FBI/CIA/NSA as arms of the establishment is obvious. Roger Stone was accused of lying to Congress in connection with the fake Russia Collusion hoax and his house raided under the glare of all the media cameras. Clapper lied to Congress on something much more substantial and insidious – the mass surveillance of all Americans without due process. He’s rewarded as a top national security consultant on NBC and not having to ever worry about a DOJ investigation on the violation of every American’s constitutional rights.

          • TTG says:

            Sam,

            I certainly remember Biden and many others berating Trump’s having classified documents at Mar-a-lago. Trump’s efforts to knowingly and willfully keep those documents at Mar-a-lago are even more deserving of berating. Biden’s having documents at home and at his old office clearly deserves the scrutiny it’s getting. I’m glad both are being investigated by DOJ. Hopefully those investigation will determine how it happened and steps will be taken to ensure this doesn’t happen in the future. My opinion is that the National Archives has to be much more active in the boxing and removal of papers during the transition of administrations.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            You can’t even answer a straight question with a straight answer. You stated “The plan called for the military to seize voting machines and oversee new elections. ”

            I asked which officers and or enlisted members were arrested for that. You responded with some hogwash about the Secretary of Defense “dithering” and how it wasn’t criminal. Please.
            The Mayor of D.C.?
            The Speaker of the House?
            The head of the D.C. police?
            Any of those ring a bell? Their refusuals are on record.

            Ray Epps? He is on video urging people to go in. Weeks later after getting plenty of legal advice he says he changed his mind. Thanks. I especially liked to see that the staff led the zoom meeing with all 4, yes four, J6 members.

            “The interview in the above matter was held via Webex, commencing at 1:04 p.m. 2 Present: Representatives Schiff, Murphy, Aguilar, and Kinzinger.”

            I especially liked the redactions. Apparently the American people still can’t be trusted in knowing what its government is doing.

            “I don’t know of any of those arrested are in solitary confinement awaiting trial. Do you? ”

            No; and it is irrelevant to the question about arrest and trial without due process under the 6th Amendment. But “I read a story from April 2022 that J6 defendant…”

            Yes, you read a story from almost a year ago and then another and conclude that these folks who you say were involved in an attempted takeover of the national government were ‘coddled’.

            “Given that 75% of defendants nationwide remain in pre-trial custody, we do have a serious problem in this country.”

            Oh you are finally catching on? BTW is Joe’s garage an SCIF and don’t we deserve to see the visitor logs for the last two years? How about all that material at the University of Pennsylvania?

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            I forgot to answer that part about the Pentagon seizing voting machines. Here’s the draft EO prepared for Trump’s signature by his minions. Whether they were in the government or just in his campaign or legal team, they knew of certain classified documents governing this sort of thing. It reads like a Kraken-Giuliani production to me.

            https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/21/read-the-never-issued-trump-order-that-would-have-seized-voting-machines-527572

            At least Trump or someone around him had the good sense not to see this through.

            Ah, now I see. I’m talking about two separate instances in response to your original assertion that it can’t be a coup without military support. The delay in authorizing the deployment of the national guard is one instance of military support to a coup. This is akin to my assertion is that all that is needed is for the military to stand down. The draft EO for the Pentagon to seize voting machines is totally separate from the delay and is an instance of planned, but not implemented, military support to the coup.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            “I’m talking about two separate instances in response to your original assertion that it can’t be a coup without military support.” Can you not even remember waht you wrote in response a day before? “Have you no imagination? One doesn’t need the military to stage an insurrection. All that’s needed is a military that refuses to intervene against the insurrectionists.”

            Sure thing, as you note again today:

            “The delay in authorizing the deployment of the national guard is one instance of military support to a coup. This is akin to my assertion is that all that is needed is for the military to stand down. ”

            You mean like all those police departments in all those cities led by Democrats in the summer of George Floyd? The FBI agents in DC taking a knee before BLM rioters? That kind of thing? I agree with you.

            What command authority does the executive branch have over National Guard units not called into Federal Service? None. What record is there of any official in the federal government issuing orders to national guard units not called into federal service? I won’t ask again about the Mayor of D.C., the head of the D.C. police department, or the person responsible for the Capital Hill Police – Speaker Pelosi – and what they did or requested be done before or on J6 2020.

            Per Politico: “It’s not clear who wrote either document. ”

            I submit the following as suspects: Haven Monahan, Christopher Steele, Danchenko, or the person who contacted the Politico author.

            Please stop insulting your own intellegence with the song and dance routine. There was no attempt to overthrow the federal government and Biden’s retention of classified documents and insecure storage thereof are felonies. He won’t be charged nor removed from office because of that, but it does further damage the bogus anti-Trump document effort that has been fabricated and pushed for months. I suggest you guys figure out how to pin vax side effects on the SOB so you can try and keep him out of office in 2024. What you’ve done so far keeps blowing up in your own faces.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            “What command authority does the executive branch have over National Guard units not called into Federal Service? None. “
            Wrong. Only the SecDef can approve requests for the DCNG to provide direct assistance in law enforcement activities. That’s the law. At the time this authority was delegated to the SecArmy, but he also did nothing on January 6 for those 3 precious hours. Now it has to be the SecDef. The authority cannot be delegated. No DC official, neither the DC Mayor, the Metro Police Chief nor Speaker Pelosi ever had the authority to do so.

            That draft EO came from the White House and was eventually turned over to the J6 Committee after intense legal wrangling. Trump did not want it released. The Committee later released it to the public. None of those potential suspects you mention were working for or in the White House.

        • Fred says:

          TTG,

          “No DC official, neither the DC Mayor, the Metro Police Chief nor Speaker Pelosi ever had the authority to do so.”

          I’m so glad for the legal clarification. What did the mayor, the police chief, and the speaker of the house do? TRUMPS FAULT! ok. Good luck running on that in 2024.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            The mayor, the police chief, the speaker of the house, the DCNG commander and even the VP were pleading for Trump and the Pentagon to let the NG protect the Capitol.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            You sound like Morning Joe’s coffee klatch lady. As Liz Cheney, now ex-congresswoman from Wyoming said ““Trump gave no order to deploy the National Guard that day….”

            THAT DAY! My goodness I wonder what was going on before THAT DAY. Maybe you could provide some public record that which is not date after January 6th 2022. Perhaps the testimony before the House would be helpful:

            “At Mayor Bowser’s request and in advance of the scheduled demonstrations, mutual aid was requested from several area police departments to be on standby in the District, and more than 300 members of the D.C. National Guard were deployed on District streets, providing traffic control and other services, to allow MPD to support the First Amendment assembly and continue to provide services to D.C neighborhoods.”

            Testimony before Congress, May 12, 2021.
            Maybe you have some actual record of Pelosi, the mayor and the DC guard and police commanders “pleading” with Trump BEFORE January 6th.

      • Al says:

        TTG, I have not come across any info as to what motivated Biden’s attorneys to initiate the document search at the “think tank” office. Had Biden directed such? Seems kinda strange

        • TTG says:

          Al,

          The attorneys were packing up the office prior to closing it down. The documents were probably sitting there for six years. Biden probably directed the search of his house after discovering the ones in his office. He should have done that soon after the first documents were discovered. The FBI should ask him why he waited until recently to initiate the house search.

          • LeaNder says:

            I haven’t read Scahill’s whole Biden Series yet: The Empire Politician

            But: assuming taking classified matters home is still standard, why then all the partisan hysteria … sometimes the classification may not even make sense?

            https://theintercept.com/empire-politician/

            “Biden assured [Ted] Sorensen that he would help guide him through the process. As Sorensen recalled, Biden had led him to believe that he had the senator’s “enthusiastic” support, telling him that he was “the best appointment Carter has made.”

            When Sorensen came under attack from Republicans, though, Biden shifted his position and went out of his way to dig up an episode from Sorenson’s past that would serve as a red flag against his confirmation. Sorensen had given an affidavit in Ellsberg’s case, in which Sorensen acknowledged that many officials in Washington, including himself, would take classified documents home to review and that officials often leaked far more sensitive documents to the press without facing prosecutions.

            Biden said he learned of the affidavit, which was never filed in court, from a Republican colleague and assessed that the Republicans on the committee would seek to use it to discredit Sorensen. Biden had his staff scour documents and Sorensen’s books to find the unfiled affidavit, and an aide who was involved with the Pentagon Papers case eventually located it. This, combined with other concerns, including allegations that Sorensen was a pacifist who dodged the Korean War draft, put the nomination in peril. “It was like being blindsided by a truck,” Sorensen said, describing the campaign against him as an effort where “many little dirty streams flowed together to make one large one.”

            *******
            Does this man seriously consider running for another term?

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            “The documents were probably sitting there for six years. ”

            LOL right. Covered with dust because even the janitors never went into the room, as verified by the non-existent access records.

            The FBI should ask the President why he violated the law? I agree, ask him under oath.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Yes, the FBI or the Special Counsel should question Biden under oath. They must ask him if he “knowingly remove[d] such documents or materials without authority and with the intent to retain such documents or materials at an unauthorized location”. Those are the conditions required to violate 18 U.S. Code § 1924 and be subject to fines and/or imprisonment. The same question must be asked of Trump under oath.

        • Fred says:

          TTG,

          And for the years it was at his residence, unsecured, well “I didn’t knowingly do it” is going to be his excuse. I think the next question is where are the articles of impeachment and the indictment.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            I expect the articles of impeachment will be drawn up as soon as the special counsel issues the results of the investigation. The Freedom Caucus may not be able to get a majority vote until that investigation has run its course.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            What you are saying is there will be no impeachment.The Special Council was appointed by the AG, not the House.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            I have no doubt that there will at least be articles of impeachment on something in the next two years. But those articles will be flimsy if based on the Biden classified documents until more details are made available by the special counsel. The off the wall rumor floating around that Trump-allied Secret Service agents planted documents in Biden’s Delaware residence has as much credence as the idea that Biden intentionally took and hid those documents at his house. I’m saying that the House will have a difficult time getting enough votes for impeachment without more damning details, details that will only come from the special counsel.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            I look forward to the special council calling Obama to testify on why he let Biden steal secret documents while Obama was president. I’ll order up the popcorn.

            Please cease spreading misinformation on the internet. I hear the Biden administration wants to make that a crime. But let us know when Joe fires the disloyal, that will be news, even if it is SOP for leftists.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Maybe the special counsel will also ask Trump why he let Biden keep those classified documents while he was president. I know that’s only slightly less absurd than trying to blame Obama for this. At least under Biden the FBI and NARA were making efforts to retrieve the documents Trump stole. I’m surprised they held off for so long for the raid.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            You mean Trump was naive enough to trust Joe from Scranton, just like Obama?

            “…retrieve the documents Trump stole”

            They haven’t charged him with theft have they? When do you think that might happen? Did they release all the information used to give the FBI the probably cause to get the warrent yet? How about the list of items siezed? LOL you know the answer to both is NO.

            Did they also determine who had access to Joe’s garage to view all the unsecured boxes containing classified information? I suggest that list includes the guy who forgot his laptop and his business partners.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            I don’t know if Trump will be charged with knowingly removing classified documents from the White House. That’s one of the questions the special counsel will answer. I’m still of the opinion that the removal was due to staff ignorance/negligence than any willful plan of Trump or Biden. But I do have have doubts about that one leather bound box found in Trump’s Mar-a-lago office.

            From the heavily redacted search warrant request we learned this. From 15 boxes retrieved in February 2022, NARA found “highly classified documents intermingled with the other records” in 14 of the 15 boxes for a total of 67 Confidential, 92 Secret and 25 Top Secret documents. Control markings included HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN and SI. In a subsequent retrieval of boxes, more classified documents were found. All this, and whatever was laid out in the redacted portions, lead to the search warrant issued in September.

            The search yielded various classified TS/SCI documents in a leatherbound box of documents in trump’s office. Among the other boxes on the inventory, 1 contained miscellaneous Confidential documents, 3 contained miscellaneous Secret documents and 4 contained miscellaneous Top Secret documents. Other than the one photo of various cover sheets and whited out documents, that’s all we know.

            In contrast Biden’s think tank office yielded 10 classified documents, not various or miscellaneous, but 10 total. His home yielded 6 total pages. That’s a far cry from Trumps various and miscellaneous classified documents in 24 separate boxes. Still, other than that one leatherbound box, both cases could be the result of staff ignorance/negligence in the packing those boxes. I seriously doubt those who actually moved the boxes had a clue as to what was in them other than lots of paper.

          • LeaNder says:

            Thanks TTG for taking the time.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Sam & TTG,
      TTG,
      Thanks for taking the trouble to provide such a detailed answer. I failed to make my perspective evident which is more in line with Sam’s comment below than yours. I suppose taking “classified docs” home deserves proper scrutiny, but imo we are well past playing violins over that stuff. When a figure like Biden or Trump is investigated in the press this way my instinct is almost a 180 from yours: not that screws need tightening, but that we are no longer a constitutional republic governed by 3 branches but rather by an unconstitutional (and therefore illegal if not criminal) bureaucratic paramilitary cabal of Intel agencies – who in these cases “investigated” Presidents and elsewhere spied on Congress for coercive purposes.

      Sam,
      Reading about the Asian woman riding a bus stabbed 7 times in Indiana yesterday I came across this on an NPR page. What can one say? Nothing very nice other than sure, I understand why dishonesty is the policy. Or is it something else?

      Analysts say hate crimes are increasing but that’s not reflected in FBI data:
      https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145509230/analysts-say-hate-crimes-are-increasing-but-thats-not-reflected-in-fbi-data

  5. Fred says:

    If it wasn’t worth the casualties to take, was it worth the casualties to defend it?

    • TTG says:

      Fred,

      That’s a good question. I thought that the Ukrainians held on to Severodonetsk too long given that was the heyday of unlimited Russian artillery and pre-HIMARS and M777 for the Ukrainians. Maybe, maybe not.

  6. Eliot says:

    Bill,

    “Is Prigozhin, and his personal army, a guarantor for Putin (Wagner as Putin’s “Palace Guard”), or is Prigozhin competition for Putin.”

    Prigozhin is Jewish.

    He may have lot of influence like the other Jewish oligarchs in Russia, money is power, but he can’t have state power, it wouldn’t be permitted. He’s also spent nine years in prison in the 80s. He will never be more than what he is now.

    – Eliot

    • Jake says:

      Jews were running the show in the Soviet Union. Putin is not hostile towards Israel. He recently said the multi ethnic groups are together forming Russia as their home. And Russia has no Stepan Bandera statues and no commemoration in parliament of such an outspoken anti semite like Ukraine just had. So why are you writing something like that?

      • Eliot says:

        Jake,

        “ Jews were running the show in the Soviet Union.”

        Early on, the movement was very Jewish. But Stalin ended up largely purging the Jewish members of the party. Official propaganda during this period referred to the Jewish citizens of the USSR as “rootless cosmopolitans” challenging their loyalty to the Soviet state. This purge was one of the reasons why so many turned against the USSR.

        By the end of of the Soviet period, the leadership was largely ethnic Russians. Over time, despite the preferential quotas, the numbers normalized. That shift in leadership was one of the reasons the USSR collapsed. A sense of Russian nationalism had emerged, and there was a strong belief that it wasn’t worth it, the Russian SSR subsidized most of the other republics, and what did Russians get from it, complaints, a system that considered Russian pride a sin? How did this serve Russians?

        In modern Russia it’s a little complicated, many of the oligarchs are Jewish, and they do have a lot of influence and power, but ethnic Russians wouldn’t accept being directly governed by someone who wasn’t an ethnic Russian.

        • Jake says:

          I’m aware of the history, although Stalin’s ‘purge’ was not primarily aimed at Jews as such, but Trotskyists, with Trotsky himself being Jewish, of course, born Lev Davidovich Bronstein, the child of a wealthy landowner from Cherson, now contested. Communism as an ideology is littered with people born in Jewish families, and because of that this Austrian artist and vegetarian with that funny moustache who inspired many before the second world war, including Stepan Bandera, Ukraine’s national hero today, listed ‘Slavs’ in one breath with ‘Jews’ as being ‘Untermenschen’.

          The tense relationship between Jewish people and the ‘Slavs’ is not of recent origin, nor exclusively about ideology. You are correct that the strained relationship in the post war period left scars, but the Soviet Union under Stalin was the first nation to recognize Israel. It went downhill when Israel switched sides, seeking protection from the US, oddly by bombing the USS Liberty, and blaming it on Egypt, and the US falling for it, topping it off with providing them nuclear weapons through lax security. After that, Israel insisted that Jews in the Soviet Union were discriminated against and my own Dutch country set up shop in the Soviet Union to help Jewish people file for emigration. Right after the Soviet Union collapsed, Wallstreet and the ‘City’ went looking for Jewish people to buy ‘everything oil’, ‘everything gas’, ‘everything mining’, and this period is not remembered as being Russia’s finest hour, since it left ordinary Russians scraping the bottom of the can for food and some dignity. I’ve seen the changes, and it wasn’t pretty, so yes, Jewish oligarchs are unlikely candidates for ‘office’, especially if they brought their wealth to other countries, but not because they are Jews. Ethnicity has been a trump card played by NATO during the Cold War, but it doesn’t carry all that much weight these days by the looks of it. But Prigozhin as Putin’s successor is unlikely for other reasons. Medvedev is widely seen as the one NATO will be dealing with if Putin gets killed. For the moment radicals and warlords are not in demand in Moscow, despite NATO’s best efforts to encourage them to make a play for the leadership by ‘Regime Changing’ the country. And I saw Putin trotting down the stairs from the aircraft to his car, and if he is a dead man walking, like some sources are saying, he sure looks in a far better shape than Biden, so I wouldn’t bet on succession issues anytime soon anyway.

  7. Sam says:

    I found this analysis of the current situation by an Austrian army Colonel helpful.

    https://youtu.be/54daqNraMxE

    The US it appears has to step up it’s weapons supply significantly if the Ukrainian army has to defeat the Russian army. In addition to quantity it will have to provide increased capabilities – longer range artillery, more high-precision ammunition, tanks, drones & surveillance systems.

    The question is will the US political and military elites decide to decisively defeat the Russian army in Ukraine?

    • TTG says:

      Sam,

      Thanks for that. I always like that guy’s briefings. It may not be new information, but he puts it together in a very clear, logical and well reasoned way.

    • Bill Roche says:

      Sam; Yes, but not just the US. Europe must put up or shut up now. The Austrian message is there is no time to wait. Russia will overwhelm Ukraine. Unless NATO is really there to bleed Russia, with Ukrainian blood? I c/n be so cruel but could NATO? Ukraine has some things helping her. She has a secure rear protected by her Slavic neighbors and internal lines of supply – as long as she has something left to supply. If the ship hits the fan in March, neighbors may have to supply much more. After all, Ukraine is fighting for their sovereignty also. So far the “anaconda” efforts of the Russian navy have not been convincing, but it still provides a platform for launching missiles against Ukraine. More Russian ships in the Black Sea need to find the bottom. Putin, I have read, is beginning to draft young white Christen men in Ekaterinaberg, St Petersburg, and Moscow. If they go w/o protest, Russian man power will overwhelm the UKM. Putin has convinced me he is not dying soon and intends to put all Russians assets into the war to destroy the low life Ukrainians. As Stalin said of Ukrainian farmers in ’30 “we must show those Kulaks who’s boss”, Putin’s msg to Ukraine is the same in ’23. He will show Ukraine who’s boss. If successful Moldova won’t exist and Poles, Slovaks, Romanians etc. can look fwd to Russian “guard” units on their border. Yeah, its put up or shut up time.

  8. Bill Roche says:

    If Putin will not budge, is not sick or dying, and leads a Russia population willing to die for “Mother Russia” than he will outlast Ukraine which has limited sons to send into the “killing pit.” Russia will punish the Ukrainian untermensch for a hundred years thereafter. More than that, Russia will look over her “new” western border at Moldova. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungry, and Finland ought take notice. After Russia destroys and humiliates Ukrainians, she will get the attn. of her western neighbors. She will no longer have to conquer, just let them know she can. They will b/c more “receptive” to Russian interests. Think I’m wrong? Russians hold their western neighbors, the “little Russians” in contempt. It is unthinkable to be defeated by Ukrainians. Its decision time for Swedes, Finns, Balts, and Slavs. It is 50 days since the RM moved into Ukraine. Expect something big from Putin around that “anniversary”.

    • Peter Williams says:

      No-one dies for Mother Russia. They die defending their homeland. The West incorrectly translates «Родина мать» as “Mother Russia”, it literally means mother’s homeland, homeland, the soil on which I was born. It’s Russia in a greater sense, and not ethnic Russian, but the home of all the peoples of Russia. Most are Руский, but all are Россияне.Why do you think that Chechens in Rosgvardia fight for Russia, they fight for Родина мать.

      You Mr Roche are clueless. In the US you have African Americans, Irish Americans, Italian Americans etc. In Russia, you have Tatars, Chuvash, Mari etc, they are nationalities (ethnicities), but all are Россияне. All will fight for Родина, their homeland, whether they live in their ethnic homeland or several thousand kilometres away, it is still their homeland.

      • TTG says:

        Peter Williams,

        You laid out a good rationale for never invading Russia. It is also a good rationale for not invading Ukraine. Ukrainians will fight and die to defend their homeland. That’s why over 65,000 Ukrainian expatriates returned to Ukraine in the early weeks of the war to fight the invading Russians.

      • Bill Roche says:

        PW thanks for your comment on Mother Russia. Makes a fellow question; why wont Ukrainians fight to defend Mother Russia? It’s an unnecessary question b/c Russia is not under attack but doing the attacking. None of the “nationalities” that Stalin once described as a nationalities problem have to fight for Russia. Russia can end the killing of those raskkaly Ukies by turning its military east and going back to Russia. Ukrainians can enjoy their ethnic homeland and Russians (of every ethnicity) can enjoy Russia. Problem solved w/o a clue.

        • Babeltuap says:

          Why can’t Cuba have nukes pointed at the US or even Mexico have nukes pointed at the US? Would the US ever allow this scenario? NO. They would not allow it. I’m no fan of Russia, said it many times but come on….meh. Ukraine was in the process of purchasing longer range ballistic missiles before the war, well documented. At some point Russia is going to do what they have to do just like the US or the CCP and Russia did exactly that. If one does not think Russia does not have a case then they are lying to themselves. Of course they do. May not like it but they have a legit reason.

          • Bill Roche says:

            BBTP there’s a difference b/t honoring your neighbor’s sovereignty and denying them nukes pointed at your capitol. Consider why Ukraine, after giving up her nukes, was trying to get some back and pointing them east … at Russia. Why did she think her threat was from Russia? Why did every Soviet Republic turn their guns east at Russia after they declared independence post ’91. Why did former Warsaw Pact members join NATO. They weren’t forced. America d/n threaten Canada’s, Cuba’s, or Mexico’s sovereignty. Russia denies Ukraine’s sovereignty. Indeed it denies Ukraine’s right to exist. Remember that old tune “hey Johnnie one note, he sang out …”. Like Johnnie I keep on reminding our correspondents that this is a war of Russian Empire vs Ukrainian Independence.
            Everything else, is wrapped around this truth.

        • Leith says:

          Babelthuap – I thought Ukraine gave up her hukes and ballistic missiles back in 91? Supposedly in return they got a security guarantee from the Kremlin.

          • wiz says:

            Leith

            according to TTG, they didn’t give up anything but could not crack the codes and thus could not use the nukes. Russia assumed responsibility for all the nukes, just like they assumed responsibility for all the financial debt of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine’s.

            Security guarantees go both ways. If you actively seek membership in a military alliance hostile (and ever approaching) to Russia while you border Russia and your population consists of millions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, there are consequences.

          • TTG says:

            wiz,

            Yes, Ukraine tried to crack the codes on their Soviet nuclear weapons and couldn’t do it. So they gave them up in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US and GB. That was the Budapest Memorandum. Given that it was Ukrainian engineers that designed and built many of these nuclear weapons including the Satan, they could have dismantled those Soviet weapons and built their own from scratch. It’s a good thing they went for the Budapest Memorandum instead given the depths of corruption they sunk to in the 1990s and 2000s. They would have sold them to somebody along with a great deal of their military equipment in those years.

          • Babeltuap says:

            Ukraine was in the process before the war to purchase long range ballistic missiles. Articles out there about it. Ukraine does have a right to get them. So does Mexico pointed at the US if they wanted. Unfortunately neither scenario will workout. No super power is going to allow that on their border. Not happening. I have respect however for Ukraine. They are either getting those missiles on their border or die trying.

          • TTG says:

            Babeltuap,

            What long range ballistic missiles did Ukraine try to purchase. I can’t find any info on that. They did inherit some Tochka-U SRBMs and were actively developing their own Grom-2 SRBMs with a thousand kilometer range.

          • wiz says:

            ttg

            Yes, it is a good thing they did not try to build their own nukes. Many Ukrainian engineers went to work for N. Korea on their missile and possibly nuclear program after the breakup of the USSR.

          • Leith says:

            Wiz –

            Ukraine not only gave 3000 nukes to Russia, they also gave up TU-160 & TU-95 strategic bombers and hundreds of KH55 cruise missiles. That was naive idiocy as those are being used against them now – primarily against civilian targets.

            Russia had agreed to respect Ukraine independence and sovereignty, and refrain from the threat or the use of force or economic coercion. That agreement was broken to satisfy Putin’s colonial grab of Crimea, by his provocations in the Donbas, and by his 2022 invasion. He used a lot of phony excuses such as protecting Russians, de-Nazification, NATO encroachment, etc. But those were all lies. It was a straight out snatch and grab to turn Ukraine into a Muscovite colony and Ukrainians into modern day serfs.

            NATO? Ukrainian leadership stated they had no intention of joining NATO even after the Crimean peninsula and Black Sea oil was stolen from them . They only started working towards that after the Russian invasion of the Donbas. And nothing formal was done until 2019 when they finally got fed up with the hundreds of ceasefire violations by Putin and his puppets in the Donbas. Undoubtedly the Russian FSB overtly firing at and seizure of three Ukrainian vessels the previous November also had a lot to do with their wanting to join NATO.

          • wiz says:

            Leith

            Russia had agreed to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty, but after the 2014 coup Ukraine was no longer independent.

            The US also signed the Budapest Memorandum. You could argue that the US broke the treaty first by heavily supporting or even instigating the coup.
            If you practically take over a country by removing the government you don’t like and put your own in power, even pick the next prime minister, you are in effect performing an act of aggression.

          • Leith says:

            Wiz –

            Coup? That is a one-sided view fueled by the Kremlin’s Goebbelsian Brigades of propagandists.

            Poroshenko was not put in power by the West. He won the 2014 election by 55% of the vote. He beat his nearest competitor Yulia Tymoshenko by over 40 points as she only got 13%. The other 20 candidates got tiny percentages. Voter turnout was 60%, which is better that the average US voter turnout over the last 75 years.

            Yanukovych was not removed from office by the West. He fled from Kyiv just ahead of an impeachment vote by the Ukrainian Parliament. The very next day 328 members of the parliament (about 73%)—voted to remove him from office.

          • wiz says:

            Leith

            Ah, yes. There was no coup.
            Let’s forget the months of protests financed and supported by a foreign power, namely the US.
            Let’s forget McCain and Nuland, the radicalization of the movement, vicious attacks on the police, the mysterious snipers shooting from the building controlled by the far right protestors.
            We do not speak of Viki Nuland choosing the next PM, or the masked men overseeing the vote, beating of oppositions politicians or throwing them into garbage bins.
            Let’s not speak of the fact that the biggest party, the Party of Regions did not participate in the elections.
            All that is not important for the Western narrative.
            Well, that type of selective memory has brought us this war. A war that both sides keep fueling with more weapons and more men, while Ukraine is slowly being destroyed.
            Neither the US or Russia give two sh*** about that country and the people caught in the crossfire.

          • TTG says:

            wiz,

            Mykhailo Dobkin ran in the 2014 presidential election as the Party of Regions candidate. After that, the Party of Regions split into Opposition Bloc and two other parties. Since 1991 Ukrainian political parties did a lot of splitting, merging and even changing of platforms. Opposition Bloc ran in the 2014 parlimentary elections and won some seats. For the 2019 elections, Opposition Bloc split once again and ran separate lists of candidates. It was one of the parties banned last July.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            YES! Of course we won’t mention what the National Endownment for Democracy was spending all that money on. Though it certainly was not spent on anything that could be defined by such a simple word as “coup”.

          • Leith says:

            Wiz –

            In fact, the Party of Regions (PoR) did participate in the election. Their candidate got only 3% of the vote. Their entire leadership had fled to Russia with Yanukovych. The party was in complete disarray. Quite a few PoR representatives in Ukraine’s Parliament disavowed Yanukovych and left the party. Donbas voters sat out the election of their own volition – my Grandma Opal would call that “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

            As for your sniper speculation, don’t forget the presence at the time of a couple of dozen agents from Putin’s security organs.

            Fred –

            NED? Wasn’t that a Reagan initiative? No wonder the Russkies blame it for evrything.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            De-Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt. What did Nuland and company get for our $billions and what percentage got kicked back, and to whom?

  9. Babeltuap says:

    I found all these articles about Ukraine in agreements to purchase long range ballistic missiles BEFORE the war. Amazing how all those articles are hard to find now along with segments by NBC reporters on the Azoz BN and their admiration for the Nazi regime but ok…meh. Believe whatever you want. Again, I do not like Russia but there is no way in hell a super power is going to allow that on their border. End of the day we would not allow it, CCP would not allow it and Russia was absolutely not going to allow it. It was never going to happen. The situation was going to be dealt with. Ukraine backed out of those Minsk agreements for a reason. They did not care about Russia’s security concerns so here we are at the impasse. Either agree to keep that stuff out and not join NATO or the tempo will keep increasing. Not any harder than that. Somebody is getting wiped out either way. Same would happen to Mexico or Cuba ever they ever made a move to purchase ballistic missiles. That is life. Super powers defend their turf.

    • Bill Roche says:

      Bbltp you overlook 100 years of Ukrainian efforts for independence. Ukrainians tried to get Austrian Fernidand and Czar Nicholaus b/f WW I to give them autonomy- n/g. They tried after WW I, commies said n/g. They tried b/t WW I and II – n/g. They tried during WW II; the Bandura Nazi stuff. They declared (they d/n ask) w/t fall of S.U. in ’91. Ukrainians have been trying to be free of Russia for over 100 years. Let’s see, 1775-100= 1675. The colonies were not trying to get free from Brit. in 1675!! Most correspondents to the Col’s. site are caught up in WW II and Bandura, Kruschev and Crimea, “The Maiden”, Minsk, neocons, NATO expansion, but they miss the forest for the tree. The forest is Ukrainian independence. Of course Ukraine wants long range powerful missiles. Russia is sending same to Ukraine and driving them back to a world w/o electricity. Putin has gone to total war and Ukraine seeks to stop them. But you’ve commented on nukes on Russia’s door step and U R Rite. The US w/n permit that in Mexico, Canada, or Cuba. The US also honors their sovereignty, d/n deny their existence as independent states, and does not say they are simply administrative units of America. Following ’91 Russia could have decided, and made clear to her Baltic and Slavic neighbors, that the days of Imperial Russia were over and a friendship b/t Slavs and Balts was to be offered. They d/n. Instead Russia continued to demonstrate that Baltic and Slavic sovereignty is temporary. Perhaps this will help open your eyes b/y Ukraine. What Russia intends for Kiev she intends for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, well you get it. The bigger issue predates Minsk. It goes back to 1914 and Russia wont let go. There IS an easy solution. Putin sends his army back b/h Russia’s borders and leaves Ukraine alone. He won’t do it b/c he will lose Russia’s claim to empire. This is about empire.

    • Al says:

      Babeltuap , What credibility is with those “articles”? As you stated, “Believe whatever you want.” You certainly do!

  10. Leith says:

    Babelthuap –

    You may be right on those articles about Ukraine trying to buy long range ballistic missiles.

    On the other hand why would they buy foreign when they have over 70 years of experience designing and building ballistic missiles? Ukraine’s Yushnoye Design Bureau built ICBMs, LRBMs, IRBMs, MRBMs, and SRBMs for the Soviet Union. Ukraine still has that expertise and ability. They currently build (or used to before February 2022) Zenit (Zenith) and Tsyklon (Cyclone) orbital launch vehicles, which can easily be converted to carry warheads instead of satellites. If converted they could easily reach airfields near Moscow or even in Siberia. They have built the first stage for Northrop Grumman’s Antares. They manufacture rocket bodies, main rocket engines, thrusters & steering engines, and all the associated hardware i.e. propellant tanks, pressurization tanks, valves, sensors, feed lines, tubing, and wiring. They build the Hrim-2 Theater Ballistic Missile with a range of 300km. And it has been reported they have started on a newer Hrim model capable of 500km.

    With that capability why go elsewhere?

    • Leith says:

      PS – Ukrainians were the brains behind Soviet ICBMs and Space Program:

      Korolev known as the father of practical astronautics was a critical designer of the world’s first ICBM, the R7. He launched Sputnik and the Luna moonshots. He was from Zhitomyr in western Ukraine. He was educated in Kyiv Polytechnic. and before that in an Odessa trade school.

      Kondratyuk was another pioneer and visionary of astronautics and spaceflight. He developed the first known lunar orbit rendezvous (LOR), which the US space program used to land (and return) the first humans to walk on the moon. He was from Poltava, Ukraine. He volunteered for the Red Army to fight the NAZIS and was KIA.

      Glushko designed the rocket engines that powered those first Soviet ICBMs and space shots. Not only the early ones, he also designed the later engines for super heavy-lift launch vehicles that put Russian space stations in orbit. He was from Odessa.

      Lyulka designed upper stage engines for Soviet moon ships. He was the inventor of the World’s first turbofan engine on which US and European turbofans are based. He also designed the first Soviet jet aircraft engines. He was from a tiny village in central Ukraine on the West bank of the Dnipro.

      Langemak whose name was given to a moon crater worked extensively in the early Soviet space program. However he is mostly known for development of the Katyusha rocket, the mobile MRLS that was used to such good effect by the Red Army in WW2. He was Ukrainian from Starobilsk.

      Chelomei designed and developed Soviet ICBMs and expendable launch vehicles. He also developed the World’s first anti-ship cruise missiles. He was and ICBMinvented the Soviet pulse jet.an ethnic Ukrainian born in Poland but moved to Poltava, Ukraine when just three months old.

      Kravchuk was a gifted Ukrainian mathematician that taught and mentored Korolev and many of the thousands of other Soviet engineers (both Ukrainian and Russian) in the ICBM and space programs. He was from Chovnitsi in far western Ukraine. He died in a Gulag camp in Kolyma, beaten to death because he was unable to get out of his cot one morning.

      Countless others, too numerous to mention here.

      • LeaNder says:

        Wow, Leith. Are you a spokesperson of the Ukrainian World Congress. Not too long ago I had the displeasure to listen to Eugene Czolij.

    • Leith says:

      PPS –

      Most of those Ukrainian aerospace engineers spent time in forced labor camps in the Gulag. Their crime? – they were not Russian. Or perhaps they grumbled a bit too loudly about the Vinnitsiya Massacre, or the Holodomor, or the lynchings of Kulaks. More likely their only felony was being Ukrainian.

      LeaNder – No. Zero Ukrainian ancestry as far as I know. Mostly Irish with a few other bloodlines, including a Magnusson three or four generations back, so perhaps a German or Scandinavian thread. Who is this Eugene you mention?

      • LeaNder says:

        Leith, I am a bit busy, and strictly by 2050 I will have long gone. Thus the very, very best to the best and brightest in the USSR:
        https://ukraine-2050.org

      • Bill Roche says:

        Everyone forgets we all have a maternal and paternal family line and thus names, ethnicities, and interests. So interesting to me this AM is that Germany still refuses to send Leopards to Ukraine. Why don’t the Germans want to piss off the Russians, or, does Germany want Russia to win? Britain is also still standoffish on Centurians to Ukraine? “I’ll send my tanks when you send yours”. Would Britain and Germany want Russia to defeat Ukraine? Fluck Ukraine, when its all said and done we want gas from Russia to resume. Can you say cheap gas.

        • TTG says:

          Bill Roche,

          For Germany, I think there is still a strong desire to continue Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik no matter what happens in Ukraine. I find it quite satisfying that Warsaw seems willing to tell Berlin to pound sand and send their Leopard 2s to Ukraine without Berlin’s blessing. I don’t agree with your assessment of British commitment to Ukraine. They were first to pledge modern MBTs to Ukraine with the 14 Challenger 2s on the way. It’s not a lot, but I think this move broke the ice for sending MBTs to Ukraine.

          • Bill Roche says:

            Hope you’re right. We both spent time in Germany and have memories. Mine tell me (however dated) to consider the German mind. Historically it has no tradition to any ideal of sovereignty or democracy. As to Poland, doesn’t Poland “really” belong to Germany anyway. Poland is reasserting its role in Europe after 100 years. This must drive the Deutschers crazy.

        • borko says:

          Bill

          all the US has to do is send some Abrams tanks and Germany will join the effort. Why doesn’t the US do so ?

          • LeaNder says:

            borko, dear, obliously the ‘material’ American mind always knows best:
            when its all said and done we want gas from Russia to resume.

            Instead of ours, which unfortunately is twice the price. 😉

          • Bill Roche says:

            When they want, Germans can act alone; unless they don’t want. As to NATO solidarity, Germany was never committed to it b/c NATO was never committed to German membership. The French have ever been “thrifty” in their contributions to int’l conflict, and the Brits can’t pay for socialism and field an army (btw, there are riots in Paris today over Macron’s govt raising retirement for nat’l workers to 64!). As usual, the States have contributed the most to a “European War”. Sorry my friend but I cannot get it out of my mind that Germany does not care if the Russian Empire is restored as long as Germany gets cheap fuel. There was a logic to Stalin/Hitler in ’41… “you get the west side and I’ll get the east side” said Stalin. 83 years have passed. Could Russians and Germans still think that way? The only people in their way are Ukrainians and Poles. I’ll make you a bet Borko. Germany will send Ukraine nothing of value. Let’s watch.

          • borko says:

            Bill

            So you are saying the Germans will not send anything of value ? But they have promised Leopards if the US sends some Abrams 1st.
            I was hoping you would know why the US does not send some tanks to Ukraine and calls Scholz’s bluff, if that is what it is.

            I agree with you that “the States have contributed the most to a “European War”.

            Scholz probably agrees too.

  11. Leith says:

    LeaNder – Thanks for that link.

    Bill Roche – I don’t blame Scholz for his hesitation about releasing the Leopards. Right or wrong he is thinking about the long term for his country. He has given Ukraine many other critical weapons and has given a billion or so in humanitarian aide. Why doesn’t Poland go ahead and give those Leopards to the Ukrainian Army? What is Scholz going to do – cut them off for further arms buys? Will Rheinmetall, Kraus-Maffei, et al go along with that?

    TTG – I believe German / Russian relations go back a lot further than Brandt. Although it was always a hot and cold relationship. Molotov/Ribbentrop! Before that there was Weimar/Russian cooperation and the Rapallo Treaty. There were also the many Prussian and Baltic German officers that helped Kutuzov and Alexander I defeat Napoleon. Going further back consider Peter III and Catherine II bloodlines. But there were many more of the extended Romanov family that had a majority of German blood including Tsars, lesser princes/nobility, and even commoners. Those exchanges lasted up until 1918. Plus many German merchants and farmers throughout East Slavic lands during the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries, the Volga Germans are a case in point.

    • TTG says:

      Leith,

      Good points about the extent of German-Russian relations. I do remember reading about Willy Brandt and Ostpolitik when it first started in the early 1970s. That and the daily Cronkite reports on Viet Nam were my introduction to international affairs. I lived in Germany during the deutsche Wiedervereinigung so I saw the fruition of Brandt’s Ostpolitik. Down in Bavaria, there wasn’t much goodwill towards the Ossies.

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