The Cauldron – TTG

Cauldron or Meat Grinder?

The obvious goal is to try and enact a pincer maneuver from Izyum in the north, to Mariupol in the south, to trap the third (or so) of the Ukrainian army currently holding defensive entrenched positions on the border with the purple separatist-held area. Efforts to breach those defensive positions head-on have repeatedly failed, all the way back to 2014, hence the effort to surround them and cut them off from supplies and reinforcements.

The pincer maneuver is tough enough, requiring Russia to stretch out around 200 kilometers (~120 miles). This opens them up to the same resupply issues they faced up in their Sumy-to-Kyiv effort, while simultaneously exposing themselves to flank attacks from both the east and the west. 

I noted over the weekend that there is little indication Russia can mass the kind of forces needed to make a real go at this. The existing, obvious plan is already a bit of a Hail Mary pass, as Russia desperately tries to notch any success in time for Vladimir Putin’s precious WWII commemorative parade on May 9. 

Yet despite the difficult odds, Russia is supposedly looking to additionally march on Dnipro? Let’s get a close-up of the route Russian forces would have to take: 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/11/2091271/-Ukraine-update-Russia-will-break-new-records-of-stupidity-if-it-really-thinks-it-can-move-on-Dnipro

Comment: This commentary and analysis is from Markos Moulitsas of the Daily Kos, a progressive news site that I never would have pegged for incisive military analysis. But here it is. His commentary has been consistently good. All you diehard Russophiles may have to hold your noses to get through the inevitably progressive, pro-Ukrainian snark, but it’s worth a regular read.

In this and several related articles, Kos lays out reasons why forming “The Cauldron,” or the even more ambitious drive to Dnipro, may not have the desired effect of demilitarizing Ukraine. One reason is obvious from the above map.  A narrow assault south from Izium will expose the Russians to flank attacks from both sides of the assault column by a concentration of Ukrainian forces operating from prepared defensive positions. The rainy season is in full swing and the Russians have already proved themselves unwilling or unable to operate away from roads. The Russians also lack the ability to make deep lightning strikes. That ability vanished in the first 48 hours of the invasion. Their forces are attrited, their leadership is poor and their ability to keep their forces properly supplied and maintained has not improved. Their morale is in the toilet for all those reasons. Plus, there is no surprise involved in trying to form the much ballyhooed cauldron. 

What makes matters worse is Putin’s artificial timetable of a major victory in the Donbas by 9 May, Victory in Europe Day. Russian forces will continue to make rash, piecemeal attacks to push the offensive forward. They have the numbers and firepower so they should be able to continue to make slow, costly progress, but at a great price. IMO, that slow motion offensive on a narrow front against a determined, though also attrited, foe will be more like sticking one’s wanker into a meat grinder rather a glorious formation of the cauldron that will end the war.

TTG

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44 Responses to The Cauldron – TTG

  1. Jovan P says:

    There is no artificial timetable, it’s an MSM fabrication. Any rushing will jeopardize the lives of Russians soldiers, that’s why I think that they wont rush.

    But they will sure hope that many Ukraine soldiers surrender. The viability of the surrender depends on the relation of the Azov and Aidar political commissars with the AFU soldiers. Let’s hope the Nazi’s grip on the army is not too tight, it would save many lives.

    • Seamus Padraig says:

      Exactly. Time works to Russia’s advantage, so why would they be in a hurry? TTG still seems to think that Russia is suffering from debilitating shortages and bottlenecks, but I’m sure that any shortages and bottlenecks on the Ukrainian side are far worse. Russia can drill its own oil and manufacture its own defense/aerospace equipment. Ukraine, for the most part, can’t.

  2. Babeltuap says:

    Sean Penn is entertaining going back and fighting instead of fleeing like last time:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/celebrity/sean-penn-thinking-about-taking-up-arms-against-russia-to-defend-ukraine/ar-AAW85BQ

    Just what Ukraine needs. More supplies of phony support. Maybe he inspires the millions who fled to return and fight?

  3. Poul says:

    “A narrow assault south from Izium will expose the Russians to flank attacks from both sides of the assault column by a concentration of Ukrainian forces operating from prepared defensive positions. ”

    Then why do it? My impression is that modern inf.weapons have killed off large scale WW2 armoured trusts.

    Smaller cauldrons along to the front makes a lot more sense. It much easier to cut off Sievierodonetsk and create a situation like the battle of Debaltseve. You can do that several places along the front without any risk to your supply lines.

  4. walrus says:

    Reading between the lines and if Russia is to be believed, then they have been fighting with relatively restrictive rules of engagement so far. The only evidence i have for that is commentary but also images.

    if you look at the standard images supposed to prove Russian genocide or worse, you will be treated to an image of a smashed apartment building. So far so good, but if you look past that image on the videos, you will see perhaps ten other identical apartment buildings making up an estate that are unscathed. That tells me that the Russians are being selective which is consistent with restrictive RoE.

    Similarly we are told about Russian attacks on Hospitals, schools, whatever – public buildings. yet again these are highly selective attacks. Ask yourself, if Putin was engaged in genocide, why is there one hospital, school or apartment building still standing in Ukraine??

    Given that the RoE have been restrictive up to now, then Putins remark that peace talks are now at a stalemate, suggests to me, ominously, that the Russian RoE are about to change in respect at least for the Ukrainian Eastern Army in front of Donbass. Putin is going to have to destroy that Ukrainian Army with a view to driving Zelensky back to the negotiating table. In the words of Col. Lang, Russians are going to have to kill as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible, something that has been avoided so far, if one excludes the Azov units.

    ….However this is just my opinion. This whole war is a disaster on so many levels. There are no winners, except the usual suspects.

    • joe90 says:

      Another question is why does the Ukraine still electricity, sewage, water and telecom ? Also why aren’t Russian hospitals filled with wounded, were are all the funerals and since the Ukrainians can get video out, were are the videos showing all the destroyed Russian tanks, BMPs, planes etc?

  5. Degringolade says:

    I dunno: I suppose that it depends on what they are planning compared to what we think they are planning.
    In my humble opinion, I am thinking this is looking like a large scale raid rather than a true “invasion”. I have a hunch now things will get interesting. Logistics is going to probably be the defining parameter. That is “sticktoitiveness”.
    It isn’t gonna be pleasant.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Degringolade,
      Agree. It looks like a roving war party with the goal of reducing the UKR military wherever it can be found and, as Walrus points out, minimizing non-combatant casualties in the process. The Western analysts want to see it as a conventional seize and hold territory war, but I don’t think it was ever intended to be. Of course, the Russiaphobes reply that that perspective is mere excuse making for Russian incompetence in the face of valiant resistance by the most excellent Ukrainians. Walrus makes a good counter observation. It seems a no brainer that, “Ghost of Kiev” aside, Russia could use its air superiority, ballistic missiles and artillery to quickly annihilate UKR, including all of the cities if seizing and keeping the country was the objective.

  6. Eric Newhill says:

    Western “analysts” keep setting objectives and dates for Russia and then, when Russia doesn’t conform to those artificially imposed objectives, the analysts declare Russia a failure. It’s cute game game, but nothing more than a cute game.

    I think that these same analysts have failed to consider the real possibility that Belarus will join the fight and cause UKR to divert resources from attacking the Russian advance’s western flank. UKR units on the eastern flank of the advance can harass, but then will be enveloped into the cauldron and will be ground down along with all of the other UKR and Nazi units.

    What is the terrain like along the path of advance? If it’s open plains and farm land, Russian air will obliterate any attacks on the advance. Also, Russia has already smashed UKR supply routes and supply depots. Arms and supplies coming from the US, Canada and other countries have been intercepted and destroyed. Russia and Belarus have eliminated those rat lines. UKR will soon be done as an organized fighting force.

  7. Degringolade says:

    A presentation to some West Pointers.

    https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Thank you. Very informative.

      Russian plan from 2014 – 2016 period (not implemented) was to take the Donbas and SE of UKR in three weeks. They are implementing that old plan now with lessons learned?

  8. morongobill says:

    Western military “analysts.”
    I might as well try that role too.
    Right now Russia would whip Nato behinds, wouldn’t even be close. As the old saying goes, Russia would beat Nato like a redheaded stepchild.
    Just my opinion, as a military “analyst.”

  9. LJ says:

    I say this regardless which side is prevailing. My view is that this invasion by Russia is a global tragedy.

  10. Lurker says:

    The cauldron has already been formed. It is already complete: Russia has destroyed all rail lines into Donbass, and now has full fire control (artillery and air power–especially drones) over all roads leading into the fortified regions where the Ukrainian government had amassed its forces for the planned ethnic cleansing of DPR and LPR. Nothing can get into Donbass–nor can anything get out of it–without Russian consent.

    All Russia needs to do is wait, as the Ukronazis in the Donbass run out of food and ammunition and are forced to surrender. If they refuse to surrender, then it’s simply a charge up the middle, pushing the massed Ukrainian forces back to the Dnieper, all the while killing them in their bunkers with “smart weaponry” and artillery, or along the roads as they try and flee.

    Also, that map Moulitsos is using is both spectacularly incomplete and just as spectacularly inaccurate regarding the current deployment of Russian forces. It looks to be about a week old, maybe older (and it was incomplete even then). For instance, the Russians as of mid-yesterday had already advanced well beyond the fronts laid out on his map.

    Finally, his reasoning simply isn’t sound. The Ukrainian forces C3 systems have been entirely wiped out, so there will be no means of coordinating maneuvers of any kind, much less flank maneuvers that will require a great deal of detailed minute-by-minute intelligence–as well as a lack of ranking officers to coordinate them. The fuel reserves of all of Ukraine have been mostly destroyed, military transport has been mostly wiped out, and there are two sustained and increasingly rapid advances taking place from the east and north-east which are tying down the vast majority of the troops that would be needed for the flanking maneuvers he envisions (which are impossible, now, for reasons stated above).

    Now that Mariupol has been taken, the troops there will likely be redeployed and advance into Zaporzhzhia, parts of which are already held by Russian forces. Those freed up troops may also be deployed into Donestk. For the last two days we’ve been seeing video coming out of Ukraine showing Russia deploying fresh, top-tier weaponry (tanks, artillery, rocket/missile systems, troop transports) into place for a sustained attack from the east, north-east, and south-east.

    Frankly, Moulitsos’ assertion that Russian troops have been “shredded” is as laughable a fantasy as is his assertion that Russian troops were “defeated” at Kiev. The Russian troops at Kiev were sent there to hold the Ukrainian troops in place while Russia destroyed any means they might have to redeploy to Donbass and relieve or resupply the troops in the east. Once Russia had degraded Ukrainian transport, C3 capabilities, anti-aircraft/artillery power, and armor to such a level that those troops were no longer a credible means of relief or resupply, they were withdrawn and redeployed in the east, in preparation for a full run to the Dnieper.

    The Russian air force now has full control of the skies over all of Ukraine, so I really have no idea where Moulitsos is getting this idea that Russian forces are “shredded.” Russia is clearly doing the shredding–or rather, grinding–here, and doing it in a methodical, determined way with an attention to detail that indicates iot will not end until their stated political objectives are achieved.

    From the videos I’ve seen (50 or so, over the last three days) coming out of Mariupol, the Russian forces seem to have excellent morale and are conducting themselves in a highly disciplined, professional fashion. There are lots of videos coming out of mopping up operations by Russian forces–Kadyrov’s Chechen urban warfare commandos particularly like to post videos–and Russian morale appears quite high and determined. There are also lots of videos of long lines and big crowds of civilians welcoming the Russian forces in as liberators, thanking them for their work and celebrating their arrival.

    What we see of the Ukrainian forces, they seem extremely demoralized. The Ukrainians, in contrast to the Russians, have posted videos of the torture and execution of Russian POWs, with at least one high ranking commander bragging about these executions in social media. The position of the Tochka rocket booster that detached during flight just before it landed on the train station certainly and undeniably demonstrates the direction the missile arrived from: the Ukrainian side (false flag to gain NATO sympathy, 50 dead ethnically Russian civilians). Timelines, body decomposition, and photographic evidence of the massacre in Bucha firmly determines those deaths as having occurred well after the Russian withdrawal, reprisals by the Azov battalion against Russian “collaborators” (apparently, anyone who accepted food from the “occupiers”). The “mass graves” of which there is so much talk were casualties–both civilian and military–which occurred in the sustained fighting in that suburb over the last two months, most likely from Ukrainian artillery, since the Russians were positioned between the suburb and the Ukrainian forces. Thus, the Ukrainians were firing towards the city, and the Russians away.

    Then there are the interviews with citizens of Mariupol, where unspeakable crimes against ordinary civilians are being described, such as the purposeful and indiscriminate shelling of entire neighborhoods, the locking of civilians in basements while the Ukrainian forces set up firing positions in the house above, the takeover of an old folks’ home where a firing position was established on the roof and all of the residents were locked up on the first floor–then fired upon with artillery once the Ukrainians were forced to retreat–which seems to have been a pretty common maneuver, since it has been described by several witnesses from different neighborhoods. All of these tactics and war crimes are totally consistent with actions of the Ukrainian military against Donbass civilians going back to 2014.

    There have already been several mass surrenders of what appear to be two or three thousand Ukrainian troops in Mariupol. The Azov battalion is, along with its foreign advisers, holed up underground in the Azovstal steel works, which they (apparently) had earlier transformed into a command base. Russian forces have sealed them in, cut off their water, and rumors have it that fire trucks, cement trucks, and anything that can carry water are being brought in with the aim of flooding the ventilation system with water until the personnel inside finally decide to surrender–or not. It’s up to them, after all.

    What makes matters worse is Putin’s artificial timetable of a major victory in the Donbas by 9 May…

    The Russian forces have already achieved that victory in Mariupol, and the mayor of that city has been told to begin preparations for a military parade on May 9th. That is the first of the five major cities the Russian Federation plans on liberating: Mariupol, Kharkhiv, Dniepro, Odessa, and Kiev, perhaps in that order. Kadyrov unequivocally affirmed in an interview today that the Russian federation would definitely take the fight into Kiev.

    The plan, apparently, is to liberate everything east of the Dnieper and turn that over to DPR and LPR control. There is some debate whether the Russian forces will continue their advance into western Ukraine; the people who I have read tend to be divided on that based on their interpretation of what Russia means by “denazification.” Some think that such a thing can be negotiated and legally enshrined without capturing the main players and putting them on trial, while others believe that actual prosecution and trials are a necessity. I don’t know enough about the situation to have any real opinion, but my WAG would be that yes, Russia likely will fight into the West until it gets a full surrender, whereupon it will hunt down the war criminals, Nazi leaders, and Nazi funders it has identified, dictate the terms of a new constitution, and guarantee a few more cultural reforms are promulgated (textbooks, for instance).

    • TTG says:

      Lurker,

      You guys have claimed the fall of Mariupol a half dozen times already. The commanders of the Azov battalion and the 36th Marine Brigade put out a joint video today confirming the 36th broke out from its pocket and joined the Azov Battalion in the iron works. They’re still fighting, but I doubt they’ll last too much longer without resupply… except what they get off of dead Russians.

      • drifter says:

        TTG, in the video, I see a UKR Major, not the Brigade commander. The Azov Colonel and the Marine Major condemn the deserters and soldiers who voluntarily surrender which is a tacit acknowledgement that some of the Marines surrendered.

  11. It seems most efforts to cut off resupply will be more long range artillery and rockets, than actual troops.
    What I found most interesting in the news the last 34 hour, is the story apparently coming out in Le Figero, by a French journalist who went in with the early foreign volunteers and found the command to be largely American and Nato.
    Considering Putin has just said negotiations are at a standstill, will he use this to point out to the Ukrainians that talking to them is a waste of time and he will only talk to the Americans, as he’d said at the beginning?
    Something tells me that in about a year, as this all gets shoved down the media memory hole, after the election and investigations switch from Republican skullduggery to Democratic skullduggery and the Europeans admit to their addiction to Russian commodities, the Ukrainians are going to feel very used, angry and well armed. Which doesn’t bode well for other parts of Europe.
    It occurs to me the difference between an oligarch and a warlord, is the oligarch’s goons are dressed in dark suits, sunglasses and carry concealed weapons, while the warlord’s goons are dressed in tactical gear, sunglasses and carry assault rifles. It is safe to say the people in control of the political situation in Ukraine have crossed that line and they are not going back. Just who you want in the neighborhood.

    • TTG says:

      John+Merryman,

      There is an entire Anglo volunteer battalion at least. There are plenty of other veteran volunteers from NATO and Nordic countries.

      • TTG,

        I just try to see what I can see and since I don’t directly have a dog in this fight, it gives me some considerable distance from it, so my inclination is to try incorporating it into the worldwide geo-strategic picture.
        So what broader aspects will affect the trajectory of this conflict, as well as what factors will it affect?
        The economic aspects are broadly discussed and are not amenable to propaganda and jingoism. Consequently they will create blowback against those most actively promoting this conflict and it’s evident threatening everyone who doesn’t vilify Russia will become increasingly more difficult. Apparently even the Saudis had a skit(zerohedge) on their version of SNL, mocking Biden. Not to mention both he Chinese and Indians telling our state department to take a hike.
        Then there is the whole issue of the upcoming election and whether the Republicans will ignore Hunter’s antics, just because it conflicts with the official narrative.
        Consider the old saying that the enemy of my enemy is my friend and the PMC/professional management class is vilifying both the Russians and the deplorable half of the country equally, so the effect is considerable numbers of Americans are feeling some degree of instinctive empathy with the Russians.
        Personally I had a small batch of bumper sticker printed up;
        “I used to blame everything on the cat, but now I know it’s the Russians.”
        It’s not like the four years of Russiagate is totally forgotten.
        As I’ve been saying lately, the mother of all reality checks is in the mail.
        I suspect Ukraine will follow Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, etc into the burn pit of our military industrial complex. And those promoting it, just like those promoting all those other disasters, are also responsible.

  12. Steve says:

    TTG,

    Is that map aspirational? It looks very different to today’s update of the one provided by the French MoD: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

    That map can be downloaded in PDF form for greater detail.

  13. Fred says:

    From Kos:
    “For weeks, Ukraine feasted on supply convoys ” That doesn’t match what was discussed here for a few weeks while that 40 mile long convoy of trucks didn’t seem to turn into the road of debris like trailed from Kuwait to Iraq in gulf war 1.

    “The obvious goal is to try and enact a pincer maneuver from Izyum in the north, to Mariupol in the south, to trap the third (or so) of the Ukrainian army …”
    Nothing new with that take on what’s going on.

    “as Russia desperately tries to notch any success …”

    Who controls the coast of the Sea of Azov and most of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports? Who took over the region blew up that dam on the river that supplies Crimea most of the water used in agriculture?

    “That’s wide-open agricultural fields, punctuated by the occasional wooded forest. Meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery would sit in Dnipro and hammer any approaching columns, …”

    Ukraine has artillery that fires 100+ miles?

    “Ukrainian drones could operate far from most Russian air defenses…”

    I agree 100% Why doesn’t Ukraine make a few AAA-drone-BTGs to bring those drones closer to the enemy while still fielding AAA capacity to prevent suppression by air? It also begs the question of where are all of Russia’s drones operating, do they not have any, or did NATO ally Turkey refuse to sell them any?

    “Russia can’t even take cities on its border with zero supply lines to worry about.”
    Can’t or don’t want to? How did Kos determine that? If they can’t feed their own front line troops regularly why would they want to be forced to feed tens of thousands of civilians. (or Shanghai them like Xi is doing to his own people.)

    “U.S. intelligence is fallible. It has, at various times, and multiple times, claimed …”
    Wait, that’s only 4 paragraphs after telling us all how great U.S. intell is. Which is it, ‘mostly good’ or fallable?

    “they’ve got six BTGs in Izyum. At full-strength, each would have 800 soldiers, or 4,800 total. (Remember, a big chunk are support,…”)

    So that 160,000 number bandied about for weeks means a striking power of 40K, more or less; most of which is now Hors de combat and running back to mother Russia as fast as possible. Which also begs the question about those 60,000 Ukrainians in the ‘cauldron’. What is front line combat capable and what is support, and what are the casualties?

    “Ukraine gets to handle the drip-drip of Russian attacks, because the former superpower is incapable of turning on the spigot.”

    Wait, the neocons and the intel guys who won in Iraq and Afghanistan have been telling us for decades about the leviathan that is the military might of the Russian Federation…

    It’s a nice write up to feed some clicks and comments, but it doesn’t look like anything new over there; other than stimulation to ask questions that look rather obvious to me. On a related note, rather than ‘war war’ it might be good to do some of that ‘jaw jaw’ Churchill suggested. Switzerland and Sweden, two once reliably neutral nations that could facilitate such things both appear to be taking the neocon side in this tragic war. So who could serve as a reasonably unbiased host and facilitator of any such meeting?

  14. Leith says:

    TTG –

    Ukrainian Armed Forces CinC Zaluzhnyi and Ground Forces Commander Syrskyi are both veterans of the siege at Debaltseve. They were Brigade Commanders then I’ve heard. I expect they absorbed some lessons learned from that and will avoid being trapped in a similar kettle in the Donbas. Although I think Poul’s comments above are on track – smaller cauldrons at Sieverodinsk or Novotoshkivske might work better for the Russians.

    Regarding Dnepro, I read somewhere, can’t find it now, that there was some thought by Ukraine military that any Russian thrust to the west would be to the Dnepro River not to the city of Dnepro itself.

    Eric –

    Eric – You might as well buy your Bernie hat now.

  15. Deplorable David Parsons says:

    People are blinded by biases (including me). My bias is anti-Fascist, meaning anti-Democrat & anti-Washington D.C.
    If Dems & D.C. are against Russia, I’m pro-Russia. Happily, Russia is fighting Ukraine’s neo-Nazis, the ultimate Fascists, so I’m on the side of the angels in this battle (which is the final phase of an 8-year-long CIA-directed war against ethnic-Russians in Ukraine who don’t want to be ruled by Banderite Nazis)

    According to knowledgeable people (e.g. Scott Ritter) Russia is doing the improbable – defeating a large well-equipped entrenched enemy with a small force of their own. It’s going to take years, not weeks (ridiculous propaganda) to expunge the neo-Nazi infestation in the Donbass so Putin isn’t going to have any idiotic “Mission Accomplished” celebrations.

    Finally, with all the videos of the welcome reception the Russians receive from the local Donbass residents, Russia is 100% guaranteed to win this. The only question is how much of Ukraine in addition to the Donbass is going to become de-facto Russia.

  16. d74 says:

    Like all commentators so far (09.15 pm in France) I am sceptical about the Ukrainian army’s ability to manoeuvre to strengthen the cauldron and achieve tactical success.
    The Ukrainian fighter is certainly courageous and tough, i.e. a good guerrilla fighter. But in the face of Russian means and firepower, this is insufficient.

    When the Russians evacuated the Kiev region, they presented a very great weakness to their enemy. Turning your back on the enemy is not exactly a power position. It seems that the Ukrainian army did not know or could not exploit this weakness. The Ukrainian army’s return has been nothing short of cautious. It is by no means a reconquest. This passivity shows a command that lacks the imagination and/or the means to fight in an orderly fashion.

    All the Russians have to do is block the crossing of the Dnieper for the cauldron to collapse from starvation, weapons and food. Patience is also needed. It seems that the Russians have the means to prohibit the crossing of the river. The remaining Ukrainian troops in the north are busy enough not to venture further south.

    Resorbing the cauldron, if the Ukrainians don’t wake up, will be just one episode in this war, and perhaps not the main one.

    By the way, does anyone know if the Slovak S300 (several vehicles) was destroyed as the Russians claim? The videos on this subject are not convincing.

  17. blue peacock says:

    As we see among this Committee, it appears there’s going to be no resolution to which side is “winning” anytime soon. Likely neither in the end.

    It appears however that the Biden administration is preparing for at least couple years as they bring in the weapons manufacturers to the White House to discuss supply to Ukraine. Gen. “CRT” Milley also testified that it would be many years.

    In any case it would seem the biggest beneficiaries as usual are the arms merchants in both Russia and of course the US & Europe. Future generations pay the financial bill and the current generation in Russia and Ukraine pay the butchers bill.

    While I have no dog in this fight, it would be such a pleasure to see anti-American carnival barker Bernard @MOA twist himself in pretzels if Putin’s military doesn’t make much headway in Ukraine over the next couple years.

  18. b says:

    Markos Moulitsas is, as himself admitted, a ‘former’ CIA agent with South America experience but no military training.

    Daily Kos has since its inception consistently been in line with right wing Democrats (aka Clinton/Biden).

    The maps he works with are not logical. You do not push long strike along lines that have no major roads (or railways).

    The other claims are clickbait of unfounded ‘we are winning’ claims.

    The rest is just nonsense working on PR assumptions when real world information tells the opposite. TTG, I expected better from you.

    • Pat Lang says:

      b I know you feel bad about it but had a hip replacement and will be in rehab for a while.

      • Seamus Padraig says:

        Good to see you’re (almost) back, Col. Lang! I hope you make a full recovery soon.

      • William M Hatch says:

        I had the op about 6 years ago. Wish I’d had it earlier. Healed quickly & got my mobility back without pain. Hope that you’re dancing soon.

      • Degringolade says:

        Colonel:

        Good to hear from you again. You will be fine. What will amaze you is how cute your PT will be and if you listen to her, just how fast you will come back. The one that rehabbed my knee was a godsend.

        Follow her advice to the letter, you got this.

        Good to hear the dulcet “Lang-tones” again. Good to have you back.

        • Pat Lang says:

          Degringolade

          I have a pretty guy.

          • Degringolade says:

            Bummer…….Allison was a much better deal. It’s just too damn bad she was so young. I would have tried to move heaven and earht chasing her is she had been around in the 70’s.

            Sigh.

            Anyway…get better…you got this

      • Deap says:

        Thanks for the update. Today’s orthopedics are a marvel. Post-surgical PT now becomes the new SWMBO in your life- seriously. Best wishes and welcome back in what ever capacity works for you now. There are mountains still still climb, whether from a bedside computer or actually back on your feet.

      • b says:

        My best wishes to you, Pat.

        Sincerely hope you will be better soon.

    • Fred says:

      b,

      “right wing Democrats”

      Markos was and is a hardcore Obama supporter.

      • Pat Lang says:

        b
        B loves me so.

      • Steve says:

        Fred,

        That’s in a European context:)

        • Lurker says:

          Also an American context.

          No true Leftist in the US considers Obama–nor pretty much any mainstream Democrat–of the Left.

          Lots of right-wing Dems claim to be “of the left,” but even Bernie gets seriously questioned in that regard–because of his huge ignorance on foreign policy.

    • Lars says:

      Markos Moulitsas served in the US Army. I have not seen any mentioning of being in the CIA. His analysis about the war so far has been rather accurate and based on multiple sources. My opinion about Russians have not changed since I was first aware of them and them once being communists was just incidental. They have never been without a dictator and I doubt that they ever will.

  19. James Doleman says:

    Interesting discussion, thanks all

  20. Fred says:

    Looks like the Ukrainians have sunk a Russian cruiser with shore based anti-ship rockets.
    https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship

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