Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3. Social media footage circulated on May 3 shows a drone detonating near a flagpole on top of the Kremlin Senate Palace building in Moscow as two unidentified people climbed up the dome of the building. The Kremlin accused Ukraine of orchestrating “a planned terrorist attack” with the intent of assassinating Russian President Vladimir Putin and clarified that Putin was not at the Kremlin at the time of the attack and was therefore unharmed. Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, stressed that Ukraine did not conduct the attack.
Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization. Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera. Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city. A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation. If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event. It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative and offset the rhetorical implications of a clear informational embarrassment. The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022.
The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience. The Kremlin may use the strike to justify either canceling or further limiting May 9th celebrations, actions that would likely augment the information effort framing the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russian observance of revered historical events. ISW has previously assessed that Russia is employing an array of measures to frame the war in Ukraine as existential to Russia’s domestic audience and to prepare for wider societal mobilization.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023
Comment: That’s the ISW’s take on the drone strike on the Kremlin’s Senate Palace. But I’m not fully convinced of their false flag explanation. It makes more sense than the Russian claim of a deliberate Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Putin. Unless Zelenskiy thinks that Nosferatu-looking SOB flies up to Senate dome every night to sleep with the other bats, the talk of an assassination attempt is absurd. However, Zelenskiy’s statement that he wouldn’t attack the Kremlin or targets inside Russia is equally absurd. Ukraine has attacked Belgorod alone with missiles, helicopters and drones. It could be an act of counting coup, an act to embarrass Putin by showing that Ukraine can touch the heart of the Kremlin at will.
Another possible explanation is a strike originating from within Moscow itself carried out by a Russian resistance element. That’s the opinion of Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian Duma member who voted against the annexation of Crimea in 2014 now living in exile in Kyiv.
In an exclusive interview, Ilya Ponomarev told CNN’s Matthew Chance that “it’s one of Russian partisan groups,” adding that “I cannot say more, as they have not yet publicly claimed responsibility.” According to Ponomarev, members of partisans group inside Russia are usually “youngsters, students, residents of large cities. I am aware of the partisan activity in approximately 40 cities across Russia,” he told CNN. “All partisan groups have their own focus, their speciality, their core knowledge. Some of them are focussed on railroad sabotages, some of them are doing arson of military recruitment posts. Some of them are doing attacks on pro-war activists, some of them are doing hacking attacks,” he said. According to Ponomarev, the drone attacks inside Russia are a “new line of operation” for the groups, which he says pose a “real threat.”
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-03-23/h_81072ce0d77a5070aa0f8f95b4a31fa6
There have been RC model aircraft hobbyists in Russia since the Soviet days. Drones like this could be assembled in a basement and launched from a street or field. This would account for the drones’ ability to penetrate the multilayered air defense network installed around and in Moscow. This would also be in line with the upswing in rail, power grid and other sabotage strikes plaguing Russia lately. Would Ukrainian intelligence be in touch with such Russian resistance elements? I would count on it. I would also count on Ukrainian intelligence using those Russian resistance elements to shape the battlefield in preparation for their counteroffensive.
TTG
Perhaps one clue as to the perpetrator can be gleaned from the fact that Zelensky managed to place himself in the safety of the Polish capital when the s**t hit the fan or – as in this case – the drone hit the dome.
Could have been just coincidence, I suppose.
But, then again, it may have been very prudent to arrange things so that you weren’t actually in your office in Kyiv whilst a drone was going Bang! on its way to Putin’s office in Moscow.
Make of this (translated Telegram post) what you will. I have no opinion other than that it’s very interesting.
https://t.me/bazabazon/17377
The drones that attacked the Kremlin were noticed in the suburbs. But they didn’t react.
According to Baza’s sources, the drones were flying at extremely low altitudes. They were noticed long before approaching Moscow, in the Moscow region, including by local residents. However, regional departments and emergency services initially decided that people’s reports of drones were another episode of drone hysteria. “They didn’t work out the applications as expected,” the source noted.
However, when the UAVs flew over the Moscow Ring Road, it became clear that this was not a false call at all. The drones flew towards the city center. The security forces began to report the UAV to the top, “but due to the late time and the May holidays, there was no proper immediate reaction,” the source concluded. In this case, the account was already running for minutes. As a result, the drones successfully flew to the Kremlin with a difference of 16 minutes.
😊 Subscribe, this is Baza
———–
Also apropos of nothing much – best clip I recall seeing of a drone shoot down (over Kiev). The drone, pardon my saying so, looks a bit anemic. My sister would have a good chance of shooting it down with a slingshot. Interestingly enough I’ve seen this same clip in other posts which say nothing about it being one of their own which got out of control. Which suggests that maybe they are suggesting indirectly that Moscow shot down its own too over the Kremlin? No idea.
https://t.me/bazabazon/17390
The Ukrainian Air Force said that over Kiev they shot down their own Bayraktar TB2 drone, which lost control. Earlier, a video with the destruction of a drone in the sky over Kiev has spread online.
“Since the uncontrolled stay of the UAV in the sky of the capital could lead to undesirable consequences, it was decided to use the calculations of mobile fire teams. It’s a pity, but this is a technique, and such cases happen, ”the statement says.
F&L,
Looks like a MANPADS took out that Bayraktar. Don’t think the small arms fire would be effective at that altitude. We took out Bat targets with small arms, but they weren’t flying that high.
I found another Tgrm post which described a parade celebration (or rehearsal, likely) near St Petersburg during which a drone (a Russian drone) was shot down as part of a training exercise. The poster, usually thorough, didn’t provide a link to a source so I’m not posting it, but I assign it a positive credibility score based on past performances. It’s more than plausible that drones are going to be employed as security measures in the May 9 environment. Similarly you have the friend/for puzzle – if I see drones over my parade, whose are they. If you know it doesn’t belong to your own security detail, then what do you do, it could be property of a rubber-necking geek or a TV crew covering the parades. You have experience here – if you are commanding a Kremlin security detail, do you go so far as to do some shootdowns in the Kremlin environment itself, or trust your guys to do it right based on field practice should events necessitate? If you only caught bass in a lazy river are you all set to land a marlin in the oceans of the Caribbean?
F&L,
Securing the Kremlin offers no conundrums beyond knowing that nothing is 100% secure. First, announce that any rubber-necking geek or a TV crew attempting to fly a drone will not only lose the drone, but go immediately and roughly to jail. Employ as many EW countermeasures and spotters as possible. Employ as many MANPADS as possible. The order of the day is “if it flies, it dies.”
You seem to suggest that the recent Kremlin drones could have been part of a test of security. I suppose that’s another possible explanation. If that was the case, it doesn’t say much about the competency of the Kremlin security detail.
My mistake: Zelensky was in Finland when the drone hit the dome, he wasn’t in Poland.
There are two kinds of historical facts: primary and secondary. A primary fact is causal and always true. A secondary fact can be a statement that is either true or false, but only exists because of its determinant – a primary fact. In war much is made of secondary facts, but it is difficult verify which “facts” are true and which are “false”. Many secondary facts are used for propaganda purposes, coming in three forms: fabrication, exaggeration or distortion. But propaganda feeds into the falsehood of war: which are fought for power, except power is an illusion. That is why dissenting voices need to be heard. I am grateful to Pat Lang that I can express opinions on these important issues. I am already banned from Twitter. I believe the current crisis is leading towards WW III, following a pattern of history. So I post my views where I can (the link to my free ebook is below). Anyone interested in welcome to read it. I would also make a plea for people to share the link where ever they can – in the name of free speech. Because being silenced brings on the silence of death.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Peter McLoughlin,
“war(s): which are fought for power, except power is an illusion”
Aren’t wars fought for freedom as much as anything? They surely can’t all be ‘fought for peace.’
Peter – Being banned from Twitter is an honor. What was your alleged infraction?
The “attack” didn’t do much damage. Looks like a ruse to muster support but we will never know other than it will get Russians riled up.
As for WWIII, one thing I thought of is what would have happened if the internet was around during Vietnam. Could the US have implemented a draft? I don’t think they could have. Conscription kinda works for Ukraine and Russia but for the West it would be a disaster IMO. Especially the US.
We can’t recruit in peacetime so how is this going to go down exactly. It would be political suicide. Then all the alt channels blowing up far beyond legacy media’s reach. It would drown mainstream voices in deep water.
Babeltuap,
“We can’t recruit in peacetime …”
once our 81,000,000 ballot comes out and asks America to sign up there will be no problems. I hear he’ll have another landslide in 2024. Even the prognosticators here are saying he’s due ‘four more years’.
Babeltuap,
“Looks like a ruse to muster support but we will never know other than it will get Russians riled up.“
The drone attack makes the Russian government look weak, and undermines their credibility. It’s embarrassing.
Accordingly state media had downplayed it.
– Eliot
Eliot,
I agree with that. This makes the Russians look weak and impotent. It’s a hell of a risk if it was a false flag.
yep
this whole story has ‘holes’ in it;
so,
was there any damage to the Kremlin, or is that the only thing without a hole in it?
kj
I think Ukrainian agents launched the drone at short range, South Front says it had pre-set coordinates to make EW ineffective. Too crude a weapon for an assassination.
I’m going to make a purely technical comment, I love thinking about technology. My favorite memories are with discussing crazy stuff with a co-worker.
How would someone defend against these type of drones?
My favorite proposal, build a land based AI system that uses cameras to monitor the sky and directs the fire of either a machine gun or a laser (the move Aliens had a system like this :-)). There are places where you can setup a zone and know that nothing, and I mean nothing the size of a drone belongs there. So the AI system just needs to see movement, calculate size, then aim its gun at the drone. If you kill a couple of birds in the process, oops, but forgivable.
How does one build a better small drone for attack?
Instead of using pre-set coordinates, code an onboard AI system that uses a camera to detect its target. This would make EW ineffective. The AI system just has to be smart enough to detect, ‘truck’ or ‘people carrying guns’. Or if you really are going for assassination, face recognition.
Drones are cutting edge for new development because of their low cost and availability of powerful CPU’s and cameras.
Wild guess – defend with drone patrols. Yes, use drones to watch out for drones. I see one problem with it at least – how do you get your AA to shoot down only the drones wearing black hats while leaving alone the good guys? It’s being ridiculed, and rightly perhaps, but supposedly a Russian legislator suggested on May 3 that eagles, yes, eagles, be used to combat drones. The best I can say in support of the idea is that maybe drone designers in the future will be students of the predator v prey relationships in the world of birds. But are there birds which prey strictly or primarily only on other birds? I don’t know. Sighting and detection key. Populate the countryside with drone hangars or hang them from lines connecting telephone poles, I don’t know. The idea is they would be all around and available on very short notice. I agree with you and really miss the brainstorming and problem solving of my earlier years. Take a cue from those highly automated Amazon warehouses and computerized distribution systems. If you ever watched a documentary on how elaborately they have it set up then you know what I mean. Why can’t a drone defense system take cues from the brains of Bezos and the flights of birds?
F&L,
The Dutch police have successfully trained eagles to take out small drones. I don’t think this can be anything more than a botique solution for limited situations. Although the Dutch have also employed gaggles of geese as early warning in their beach defenses. You just can’t sneak up on those bastards. We tried.
Interesting. Here’s my opposition Telegram poster again, translated. I’m sure you know this already about preprogrammed drones. He argues that the launch was from within Moscow.
————
Here they began to draw lines and calculate the directions from which they flew to the Kremlin. Allegedly, it arrived from the east, and Ukraine, if we consider the globe, is in the west. So (conclusion) – they fired on themselves.
One does not follow from the other. It is a pity that such a subject as logic was canceled in schools under Brezhnev. Useful stuff, though.
A rare drone will fly to Red Square from Ukraine. Much more likely that they launched it directly from Moscow. The city is big, the roofs and parks are immeasurable, the night is dark and full of horrors.
Moreover, now there are options for almost automatic launch and flight of a drone according to a pre-set program. A person may not be present at all during the take-off and flight procedure. Planes have been flying and landing on automatic systems for a long time, and it’s quite possible to equip a drone with such a device, I suspect.
So, with such inputs, it could fly in from any direction at all, the authorship could not be established exactly, and therefore there is not the slightest sense in drawing and measuring.
There is a protocol for aircraft to identify themselves to AA positions, I’m going to guess that it works reasonably well. Perhaps that could solve the friendly vs hostile drone problem.
Using birds?
Birds have very keen eyesight, maybe that is all we need to replicate for an AI system. I do not believe that we need that many for defense because we would only protect select areas.
The only advantage I see for counter drones is that they can track their prey to refine its targeting.
In any case, its a cool research project, someone must be doing it.
Chrisitan Chuba,
The Dutch police did it. I’m sure others have, too.
Nature has marvelous technology. Birds can stop drones but it is not scalable. We need to replicate it. Their eyesight is their greatest asset.
The advantage of photo detection over RADAR is that it is passive and cannot be tracked. The downside is that it is hard to calculate distance because that depends on knowing the objects original size. But that can be solved by zooming in and out and seeing how the object changes.
Who ever is responsible for the attack on the Kremlin, the Russians will use it to increase their drafting of Russian men AND justifying further Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Does any correspondent KNOW how popular the invasion of Ukraine is w/the “20 somethings” in major Russian cities? My gut says the Russian public agrees w/t humiliation and subjection of Ukrainians b/c it confirms Russian feelings of superiority over those backward untermensch but I don’t know. Who does?
Billy Roche,
Were you on Safari when the million or so young Russians left their country immediately after the fall or summer mobilization? If so it explains why you seem to be a slight bit confused. I follow the Russians and in my opinion it’s very much a mixed bag, just as it would be here. They have all sorts of people just like we do.
I have in laws of in laws in St Petersburgh who say that Putin’s still the cat’s meow. But then, there are a 2 or 3 of young 20’s in the family who have not been called up. I was not the correspondent who raised the question of race in Russia but Russia is a mixed bag racially and I wonder if the caucasion (can’t say white) Russians in the west have had their “chance to participate fully” in the draft. Sometimes “participation” colors one’s judgment. As to going on safari err no. My interest these days runs to anthropology and archaeology. I’d love to make a trip to the M.E. therefore but I’m scared to be there and I don’t have that kind of money.
Billy Roche
I assume that “M.E.’ means “middle east”. Syria was so cheap and so amazing before the war. 🙁
Egypt should be cheap I think.
I wonder if the caucasion (can’t say white)
how would racially classify your in laws of in laws in St. Petersburg, Billy?
family
Concur with what F&L said. Although IMO there is much more of the mixed bag among the young, those who never lived under Soviet rule.
Leith
… and who never lived under Yeltsin.
My plan was for a traveling zoo of poisonous reptiles, Komodo dragons specifically, and to simply lure a certain infamous head of state to the ribbon cutting ceremony with several kindergartens in attendance so that the public relations temptations would override a usually very scrupulous set of security rituals. But the leaders of the secret organization which my name has erroneously been associated with got wind of it and by their usual nefarious means made sure it wouldn’t happen.
Because you are worthy people who take keen interest in our affairs, I can’t resist the opportunity to share with you a fascinating article, which I only began to read half an hour ago.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/michael-steinhardt-antiquities-stolen-artifacts.html
The link above was provided to me by a courier service’s coachman who left me this unsigned note below with the request that I read it carefully and report, in due time, on my opinion as to the likelihood that it could possibly be authentic. I find it perplexing enough that I plan to use my kitchen equipment later this week to determine if any of it makes sense. I believe the organization that employs the courier service thinks I might know something about the characters referred to in the last paragraph, and I can’t yet determine why that might be.
———
I have perfected delicious soups from chicken, sweet potatoes, corn and yellow squash. Tomato -a large beefsteak, optional, but delicious as are spinach or peas. The sweet potatoes are key. And clean water. Powdered garlic, small quantity of ground salt, dried basil is ok. A dash of paprika doesn’t hurt but isn’t advisable except in small amounts. For years I wondered how those canned peas got their soft sweetness. Now I know. Oh – chicken breast much preferable to thigh or leg. Onions are not necessary at all but they enhance.
Now that I am officially Mr Sweet Potato 2023, I am going to return to my project of freeing the little pizza delivery boy who my organization thinks was waylaid by agents in the employ of a mysterious Carpathian lord who is suspected to be the villainous Count Dracula himself. A meal of sweet potatoes cooked in the juices of a breast of chicken simmering in fresh clean water is just the thing one needs for such an expedition.
TTG,
“Another possible explanation is a strike originating from within Moscow itself carried out by a Russian resistance element.”
The closest you’ll get to that, people who would actually fight the state, are the neo Nazis, and they oppose Putin for importing central Asians to work in Russia, and for the way the state supports Islam. There maybe 50k of these people, but that’s guess work. The violent ones, which are a small fraction, the true believers, are in Ukraine fighting for Kiev. They identify with the neo Nazi elements from Galacia, the right sector types, and they like that Ukraine is so homogenous. They’re also angry that Putin has gone to war against fellow Slavs. Which is another reason why they’ve joined with Ukraine.
It was a cohort of these types who carried out that cross border raid in Bryansk, where that Russian man was killed and the child was wounded.
The only sizable opposition are the liberals, but they’re probably, what, 10% of the countr at most. And these are not violent people. They’re the westernized middle class, and they’re more likely to leave the country than fight. Of course the Ukrainians did make use that liberal woman from Saint Petersburg when they murdered Vladlen Tatarsky, but she clearly did not understand the plot, and she said just that in the aftermath, in her text messages to a friend.
– Eliot
Eliot,
You badly underestimate the resistance to the current Russian government and its policies. Things continue to blow up and catch fire all over Russia. It doesn’t take a majority of the population to stage that kind of resistance. The Russian neo-nazis are in Wagner Group and Rusich. They’re not only Russian ultra-nationalists, but many embrace nazi symbolism. Not only Ukraine, but many other European countries have the same problem.
Well, now we have seen Ukraine’s “spring offensive”, a drone attack on the Kremlin.
On to realpolitik: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “We know very well that decisions on such actions and such terrorist attacks are made not in Kyiv, but in Washington.” Russian Ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov: “How would Americans react if a drone hit the White House, the Capitol or the Pentagon? The answer is obvious for any politician as well as for an average citizen: the punishment will be harsh and inevitable.” I wonder if ordinary Americans think about these things, rationally and logically. One difference is in the response: the US would immediately respond with some knee-jerk action, but Russia will take its time. Ambassador Antonov again: “Russia will respond to this insolent and presumptuous terrorist attack. We will answer when we consider it necessary. We will answer in accordance with the assessments of the threat that Kiev posed to the leadership of our country.” Zelenski, who fled to Finland, then to the Netherlands and Germany after the drones hit the Kremlin, was demonstrating his guilt and complicity by his very actions. I guess he will have to get used to living in a bunker now, while Nuland, Sullivan, and Blinken hold meetings to decide who the next Ukranian Pretzeldupe will be.
Frankie P,
Just more Kremlin claptrap.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654263136529141766?s=21
Dunno what his agenda is and the nature of his propaganda. Or what his fighters role are relative to the Russian army? What I continue to find fascinating is why the supposedly superior Russian army can’t overwhelm the Ukrainian army? It’s over a year and they’re no further along with Putin’s ambitions than when they began. And they’ve taken a beating in both men and materiel.
Sam,
Both sides have lost a lot of people. Some estimate it to be a quarter of a million. That’s a significant number of soldiers killed in recent memory anywhere in the world.
The Ukrainians in time will rationalize their human losses as heroic defense of their homeland. How will Russian families of those killed & maimed rationalize their losses in time? What will they say? That the invasion of their neighbor was a worthy sacrifice? They’re not gonna buy the NATO bugaboo caused me to pull the trigger to send your loved ones to their ultimate sacrifice.
blue peacock
The US had no trouble getting draftees to get killed and maimed in Vietnam, for many years. All to prevent the “communist threat”. And that was a war waged thousands of miles from US borders.
Vietnam became full communist anyway, still is and still presents no threat to the US.
So, why would Russia have trouble convincing enough people that NATO needs to be fought on Ukrainian soil rather than on Russian soil ?
Especially if they manage to take a good chunk of it away as payment for their trouble.
wiz,
The Vietnam war tore the social fabric of the US apart.
Col. Lang was spat on. The Democratic party convention was in chaos with violence. There was domestic terrorism with Patty Hearst & the SLA among others. Massive protests across campuses and the national guard killed student protestors at Kent State. Many Americans especially families of those soldiers killed didn’t buy the domino theory and killing the communists in Indochina in retrospect.
This invasion of Ukraine by Putin will not be benign for Russia. Families of those sacrificed will not buy the propaganda that fighting NATO in Ukraine was a worthy cause.
If the Russian army defeats the Ukrainian army then at least Putin can claim victory and justify the sacrifice. But if it winds out to be a stalemate as it is currently, many Russians will question the necessity of the invasion. And if the Ukrainian army further pushes back the Russian army in the east & south it would be considered a disaster as it would demonstrate the weaknesses of Putin’s long rule.
Sam
Prigozin is probably performing for his mercenaries. Trying to look good and present himself as someone who cares about their lives.
If he really cared about them, he wouldn’t be sending them to their deaths without adequate support, ammo, training etc
It’s all theatre, IMO.
Good points indeed. It’s tough to sort out who’s more criminal though – this man or the creeps who diminished the Ru military to it’s present state? If Prigozhin can do a production like this what’s his script for a remake of “Triumph of the Will” 2023 version? He comes across as very powerful, stern, cruel and loving. Old Testament ruler. Very important to establish that the killer in charge does so in your best interest. I don’t recall anything this basic and moving in deep fundamental emotional terms – certainly not from 1940s newsclips but I’m no expert. It looks real. Is it? “Lie down and don’t move for 5 minutes, tops, I’m going to really humiliate those ******kers. Yes, beef stew with tomato sauce there and maybe over there too.” Of course I’m not entirely serious, but the video does raise some questions. It’s certainly theatre though as you say whether or not it’s entirely legitimate. It treads an interesting line, which Prigozhin must be aware of. It simultaneously inspires horror and a desire to stop the carnage and desire for retribution against the enemy and desire for replacement of incompetent higher-ups. The Times said this thing of Prigozhin’s ended with a promise or a threat to soon abandon Bakhmut. Ambiguity, ambivalence and uncertainty usually heighten tension often to intolerable limits. But there is nothing ambivalent, ambiguous or indecisive about the figure speaking in the video clip. Those negative attributes are cast onto the figures he castigates. He leaves the viewers alone for a good minute with the bloodied corpses. Very effective.
https://twitter.com/yusufdfi/status/1654084683049607170?s=21
If something gets worked out or not is not the issue. The issue is resolution of trade imbalances in barter trade with non-convertible currencies. This is always fraught.
Dedollarization challenges and why USD is the market currency. States can choose to do whatever but the market of private players use USD.