“Ukrainian officials claimed Russia’s main motive in attempting to draw Belarus into the war is rooted in its need to have the Belarusian army at its “disposal.”
“Moscow’s desire to cover the lack of its military capabilities is behind the attempts to involve Belarus in the war,” advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenkyy, Mikhail Podolyak said Wednesday. “Russia needs Belarusian army disposal and the power loss of the Lukashenko regime.”
Kyiv has been sounding the alarm that Belarus may decide to enter the war to aid Russia’s “special military operation” and this week Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko suggested “big war” was on the horizon. “
Comment: General (ret.) Jack Keane says the Belarussian forces are even more badly trained and less ready for combat than those of Russia. I do not know if he is correct. pl
So Belarus, after seeing Russia defeated, will now join in the war; with troops less capable that the Russians who got beaten badly in that theatre of operation. What a brilliant move. Are we truly supposed to believe this?
Belarus will only enter the conflict, if ever, after Ukraine is crushed. IMO, the Ukrainian government at this moment is not a reliable source of information about anything. Think of them as fundraisers who will saying anything – literally anything – to get a donation.
The Ukrainian military is another matter – they want to fight the Russians to the end. But this is because men want to fight. The peaceful “citizen soldier” as some sort of norm is a myth.
Russia is never defeated as long as she has patriots who believe that invading and destroying 44MM Ukrainians is necessary to defend 140MM Russians. She has those patriots. The risk is whether White Russians will be loyal to “mother Russia”. Belarus is composed of Russians, Lithuanians, and Ukrainians. Its army exists to keep the Belarussian people down, not to defend against those ornery Balts, Finns, and Poles. When Lukashenko (a Ukrainian name BTW) orders them over the border will they fight for him? Or will they declare solidarity w/White Russian dissidents. If the latter, then all of Russia’s west is in flux and it will spill over to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Its a big gamble.
If the latter, then all of Russia’s west is in flux and it will spill over to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Its a big gamble.
Could you elaborate a bit on this? Russia’s West = White Russia, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania???
What would happen in the Baltic States?
If the Belorussian Army resists orders to attack Ukraine it will encourage White Russian dissidents to rise up against the Lukashenko gov’t. The Baltic states (and Poland) will have an opportunity to quietly help Beylorussian dissidents topple Lukashenko. This opens up a hostile front to Moscow. What will Putin do? He has no troops to put into Belarus to help Lukashenko (who was supposed to be helping Putin). Overthrowing Lukashenko will bring a net around Russia’s west from Finland through Ukraine. This cannot be what “Der Fuhrer” had in mind in February. I don’t know Putin so whether he is evil, well you got me. He’s not stupid. He must know the risk in demanding Lukashenko’s support into battle.
Maybe Putin sees himself as the new Caesar of all the Russians. If he holds the Ukranian East and keeps Belarus in line then in his mind he is winning. The longer this goes on the greater the chance of a wider war. NATO will then have its hands full.
There is no chance of a wider war.
NATO clearly has decided to support Ukraine with money, weapons, intelligence, and training but that’s it. The US and European economies are hollowed out and the US in particular has the domestic choice between recession on top of having created our new latte and skateboard economy or raging inflation. Clearly the US is headed for a huge political upset in November and severely squeezed American labor will have little remaining patience for open borders and millions of imported job thieves and welfare parasites.
The billions we’ve sent to Ukraine will have to be multiplied by a factor of two or three, if not more. Actual US military involvement will be hampered by the complete lack of domestic industrial capacity to support sustained industrial-scale warfare. Lord only knows what equipment and stores have been depleted by decades long military excellent adventures.
Putin has clearly indicated that European decision centers will be targeted. A US/NATO “strategy” of targeted first strikes are illusionary and Europe’s capitals will be pyres of smoke 60 minutes after the first ordnance lands on Russian territory. If sustained industrial-scale warfare is Plan B see above. Putin: “Checkmate.”
The US is used to fighting smaller countries with limited military capabilities. Yet, even it is well aware that Russians are out of patience and that they have limited objectives in Ukraine. The fools in control of US foreign policy know that the chimera of Russian “expansionism” is a product purely of their fevered MSM whores and psyops and NED/PNAC morons.
The fool Blinken has had his moment of arrogance and disdain and the Europeans will shortly scream bloody murder as the temperatures drop. They will weigh in smartly on the stupidity and futility of expanding NATO ever eastward let alone another ruinous European war.
I hope you are right about the ‘no wider war’. Just to be careful, Latvia is proposing to reinstate the ‘draft’ of men 18-28 and it seems to be widely approved of after years of doing without. She has a small border with Russia and would see any Russian assets moved close by. Maybe never used but there still.
God damned Lats. Always making trouble. Now all 6MM of them are threatening 144MM Russians. During WW II some Latvians actually joined w/t Nazis to oust the Russians. Only one thing left for Putin to do. Invade and route out those Nazi bastards! WW, expansion of war is entirely in Putin’s hands.
Me too! But then US decisions on all fronts all seem to be precisely the wrong decisions. 100%.
No exceptions.
Twenty years of futile effort in pursuit of idiotic “nation building” in Afghanistan to the tune of $2T finally concluded. And now, ladies and genamens, we give you its immediate successor — open-ended, reckless, provocative, pointless, hideously expensive war with a nuclear power on the sotto voce in Ukraine. Because Ukraine is just the bleeping lynchpin of the US/NATO security “plan.” We has got to get within grenade range, lads, or we’re toast!”
Adding Latvia to Russia would increase the latter’s land area by 0.38% and its access to the Baltic Sea doesn’t seem to afford some additional strategic or trade advantage to Russia.
The Latts seem to me to be as bloody-minded and twisted as the Ukrainians but that’s not an informed opinion. I can’t figure out what the advantage to them of mobilization is.
Ukraine is right to prepare, although I don’t think it will happen. But then I did not believe Putin was stupid enough to invade Ukraine either. So Podolyak should not pay attention to any rambling by naysayers.
Lukashenko is on a tightrope. Putin has been goading him to join in on the invasion since the February invasion-day. He has moved troops around to threaten Ukraine, but so far has not pulled the trigger. He has rejected recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. Long ago he rejected Putin’s plan for him to adopt the Russian ruble as Belarus currency. He still maintains embassies and foreign relations with all or most NATI members and EU states. But he depends on Russia for >50% of foreign trade.
Perhaps what he fears most is a Putin takeover of Belarus?
leith,
Which NATO member states cut off diplomatic relatations with Russia? Which country cut of trade with Belarus?
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1467568/due-to-us-sanctions-lithuania-to-cut-off-belaruskali-exports
Oh, never mind that last bit, that was last August, before “Putin’s” war.
BINGO!!!!!!! Can you imagine a Russia w/o Ukraine and Belarus? Neither can Putin. Sorry to be a “Johnnie one note” but IMHO Ukraine was not the only objective for Der Fuhrer. Complete submission of Minsk (with Lukashenko going off to a Black Sea resort for some medical care) and then on to the Baltics has been Putin’s goal since February. He just d/n realize it would be this hard. I am 100% against the Leader, but don’t bet against the Russians. The fat lady ain’t even warmed up yet.
Balderdash is the name of the game here, there and everywhere on the western front.
Interesting bit of info off of Defense One blog, today:
“The U.S. is ranked #11 in terms of support to Ukraine, by share of donor nations’ GDP, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (with data current as of July 1). In descending order, the top 10 include Estonia at the top, followed by Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Greece, the Czech Republic, the U.K., Portugal, and Denmark.”
Just a bishop move.Apply pressure on kyiv because the kherson front is about to take off once Biden is done in s.a
Is this in whatever way related to the Russian story about an Ukrainian-Polish agreement to allow Polish troops into the country to defend Western Ukraine. Supposedly this is meant to help Ukrainian troops to concentrate its forces in the East?
Or was that reported in ‘the West’ too. …
https://vz.ru/news/2022/7/14/1167593.html
Comparable stories, it feels.
Dunno but not surprised at such a story. Poles and western Ukies have had something of an on again off again relationship over the past 400 years. They know each other. Halychnia is as much Polish as Ukrainian, Jewish, German, and Slovak. Could Poland say they are just protecting ethnic Poles living in Halychnia? Ironic, no. Sorting out the ethnic “neighborhoods” of eastern Europeans (particularly after WW I) is too much for me but Warsaw could “sell” that idea. Putting Polish troops into western Ukraine is a big game changer. Maybe the Ukies/Poles are just letting Putin and Lukashenko know what could happen. Step careful my “leader”.
While the constant threat of another invasion from Belarus exists, I doubt if either Lukashenko or Putin is serious about launching the Belarusian Armed Forces across the border. Since June, Russia has been emptying out the ammo storage sites in Belarus to supply the offensive in the Donbas. That doesn’t leave the Belarusian Army with much oomph to invade Ukraine.
When Ukraine forces fallback they are leaving weapons. Russians are taking the weapons and using them. Many videos of it happening. As for Belarus they likely are needed to hold ground already taken, not for some major offensive. The real winners are US military contractors. What more could they possibly want; a revolving door of supplying something only they can provide without all the sidebar of US Soldiers dying.
B –
There are also many videos of Ukraine capturing Russian tanks and other weapons. Here is the most recent I have seen: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1548236367280295936
But there are hundreds more.
Is Ukraine worried about a land invasion by Belarusian troops? Or are they more worried about the 9K720 Iskander missiles Putin recently promised to Lukashenko? Those would be more of a threat. They would complicate Ukraine’s missile defenses. It is not clear to me in the Podolyak statement which he is worried about.
But perhaps those Iskanders, which some reports claim will b,e nuclear tipped are more useful as a threat against NATO? Putin already has them in Kaliningrad, but maybe he thinks more in Belarus would be a check against the West?
Clown world, episode 16.
On a more serious note, does anyone here with a better understanding of Russian humor and jargon know why Strelkov calls one of the top Russian ministers: the “plywood marshal?”
It’s a translation bot rendering. The word plywood is фанерным (fanernim). Фанерным is also translated as ‘veneer.’ Is it a Potemkin village reference, given that plywood as фанерным is often a cheap, superficial, temporary fix? It’s also a very good conductor of sound and I’ve seen it used by commentators (Russian language) when critiquing YouTube singing performances that don’t meet their standards.
Maybe Potemkin was jokingly called the plywood marshal years ago. No idea. But Strelkov cracks me up. Mordant wit.
Which Minister? Or was he referring to Putin himself?
My guess would be the guy in charge of the Military. Not the counterpart of Silly Mark the Shark Milley-Dilly, more like Lost in Austin Lloyd the Raytheon Hyperboloid Advancemanoid. (Strelkov inspires me). “Plywood Marshal” is hall of fame level sarcasm.
Took me awhile.
Purgeay Sergei or to his friends:
Call me Shoigu and How da Ya Do.
Kill Them until they Quit Coming
“I do not know if he is correct. pl”
Not the Ukrainians. Remember I said the over/under is July. Glad I did not bet money on human death. We will see, this war was over in February bar the killing.
I read that as “who” my mistake.