This was often the first essay assignment after returning from Christmas vacation. But this isn’t about me. It’s about what the Ukrainian Air Force did in the last week. That includes the Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces. First, it appears the newly deployed Patriot missile battery from Germany may have been brought into action on the Kherson front.
Russian forces are reportedly decreasing aviation activity and their use of glide bombs in Ukraine after Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian Su-34s in southern Ukraine between December 21 and 22. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on December 24 that Russian forces decreased their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 24 that Russian forces are limiting their use of manned aviation near occupied Crimea, particularly in the northwestern Black Sea region. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may have recently intensified their use of glide bombs against Ukrainian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in part because Ukrainian forces reportedly suppressed Russian long-range artillery in the area. Continued decreased Russian glide bomb strikes in Kherson Oblast may present an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to operate more freely in near rear areas in west bank Kherson Oblast and establish a safer position on the east (left) bank from which to conduct future operations if the Ukrainian high command so chose. Russian forces reportedly use glide bomb strikes so that Russian aircraft can remain 50 to 70 kilometers behind the line of combat engagement, and the decreased Russian use of glide bombs suggests that Russian forces are concerned about Ukrainian air defense capabilities following recent losses. Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on December 23 that Russian forces also reduced their use of aviation and increased their use of strike drones in the Kupyansk and Bakhmut directions. Ihnat also stated on December 24 that Ukrainian forces can deploy air defense systems in any direction, not only in those where Russian forces suffered aircraft loses.
This should be a great relief to those Ukrainian Marines holding the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. All those supporting forces on the right bank should also be breathing easier. Those 500 kilogram KAB bombs may not have been accurate, but at that size, they didn’t have to be. Ukrainian reports say this was a well planned takedown of the Su-34s. It may have been akin to the Serbian takedown of our F-117 years ago. Days later a shoot down of another Su-34 around Mariupol and an Su-30 approaching Odesa were reported. Of course this was all based on Ukrainian reporting. However, the Russian warblogger Fighterbomber lamented the loss of the Su-34s near Kherson shortly after that shoot down.
«What is believed to be the contrail of three Patriot MIM-104 missiles that were fired at three RFAF Su-34’s that were somewhere over the occupied left-bank of Kherson. The missiles, three kills. I just can’t see an Su-34 defeating the Patriot system.
A black day for our VKS. In the Kherson direction, we simultaneously lost three Su-34 aircraft. Condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.
A big “hello” to those who were happy that our birds were bombing the enemy bridgehead in Krynky and positions on the Right Bank. We warned from the very beginning that this is a very dangerous operation.
Recall that the enemy has already used the latest air defense systems in this area. On November 25, we wrote that the Su-34 pilot, during a flight to Krynky, fell into the range of a powerful radar of an unknown SAM. These signals were ignored. Unfortunately, it was only a matter of time before a tragedy akin to today’s one occurs. After the incident near the island of Zmeiny, many military helicopters refused, but under pressure from the command they were able to turn around.»
If accurate, Fighterbomber points out another success achieved by the Ukrainian Air Force. Normally the Patriot would launch a pair of missiles towards a target. The Ukrainians appear to have overrode this feature and can now expend one missile at one target. Given the Western trepidation at providing Ukraine with necessary armaments, this is a welcome accomplishment by Ukraine.
The Ukrainian missile troops aren’t the only ones presenting gifts. Earlier today lost another ship to the Ukrainian Air Force launching two Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles at a large LST in the Crimean port of Fedosia. This is from a Ukrainian Twitter account:
Today, December 26, 2023, a missile strike was carried out on the large landing ship “Novocherkassk” of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy, stationed in the port of Feodosia, Crimea. The attack on the Novocherkassk landing ship was carried out at 02:53 using two British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles. As a result of the impact, a massive fire began on board the ship, which led to the detonation of the cargo.
The large landing ship arrived in Feodosia from Novorossiysk. The ship was on a mission to transport ammunition. According to available information, there were 4,400 artillery shells on board, as well as 280 Grad MLRS missiles. No information about kamikaze drones Shaheds.
Also, at the time of impact, there were 62 crew members on board. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the death of one serviceman. It’s unknown exact information about the dead/wounded, however, it is known that the evacuation of personnel from the ship was completed an hour and a half after the missile strike (due to a strong fire on board), which gives reason to believe that the figures announced by the Russian Defense Ministry are quite underestimated.
Here is a result of strike. Large landing ship “Novocherkassk” are totally ANNIHILATED. In addition, due to the detonation of ammunition, the rescue tug “Captain Guryev”, located at the neighboring pier, received non-critical damage.
The port of Feodosia is under the protection of several S-400 “Triumph” divisions of the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which recently discovered problems with identifying targets. This time the S-400 missed two cruise missiles. Interestingly, the cost of the S-400 complex is $1 billion.
This strike was obviously the result of a well planned operation made possible by months of strikes against Russian naval and air defense forces in Crimea. Ukrainian radar and EW assets probably assisted along with Western surveillance platforms. Given that the Ukrainian aircraft approached from the sea, the Black Sea is clearly no longer a Russian sea. It’s fully contested at best.
These strikes against Russian aircraft and ships are surely welcome news to the war weary Ukrainians and show that Crimea remains the center of gravity to Ukraine’s military command. It’s especially welcome news given the meager results of the much ballyhooed Spring/Summer counteroffensive.
TTG – this was recorded not overly long ago in the past but if you asked these Russian villagers today about the Novocherkassk LST they’d tell you it wasn’t Ukrainians who destroyed it but the British and the Ukrainians were allowed the honor of pushing the button.
We were watching all the Prophecy’s
Being fulfilled on the News as recorded in The Bible that Col Lang believe in As a Templar And We celebrated the Birth of Jesus … Over Christmas The next Celebration is My Wifes 88th Birthdsy next week
Happy New Year to aall.. Good Health
Jim
Zelensky will be in Moscow to dictate terms any day now. I’m sure the Russians don’t look at this and see 50% of the ships damaged or sunk were struck with weapons provided by NATO launched from a government funded fully by NATO, or more precisely the USA.
“…meager results of the much ballyhooed Spring/Summer counteroffensive.”
I’m sure the butcher’s bill is not meager, it is just that we don’t hear about it. Now the news is all “Palestine” all the time.
appears Ukraine hasn’t progressed to the “we’re losing so we’d best negotiate” phase, much less the “we’ve lost the traditional war so let’s shift to irregular / guerrilla ops” phase quite yet. they might’ve even learned that a counter-offensive is not always the route to strategic victory… after all, Putin has taught that a big offense doesn’t always pay off either.
a new kind of stalemate? well-supplied active defensive tactics, training & tech vs massed meat marching to death? heck, even Red China & N Korea figured out that wasn’t worth it.
Ukraine has spent the summer killing off the Russian armor and artillery. It’s going away much faster than the Russians can replace it, and once it’s gone Ukraine will have a much easier time of it when they attack.
I’m not sure they should conduct major offenses at this point. it lessens their significantly advantageous loss ratio while draining Russia – a series of failed offenses indeed burns through arms (purchased, fabricated & organic).
Putin’s solution will be a move to full-scale mobilization of the population & economy – no more “guns AND butter” – with more of the same failure modes, upscaled. a sure burden upon his rule.
Ukraine & its allies (esp the frontline states) will have made the adjustments (across all aspects of their societies) required to keep Russia in check for as long as it takes – no rule of history says war can’t last longer than we’d like.
Over Christmas? Big family Christmas and kept well away from Ukraine and Palestine. None I met or was with mentioned them either. Wondered if the Izzies would give the bombing of Gaza a break for Christmas, given there are Christians there too. Sneaked a look at the news for a few minutes and found they hadn’t.
Sneaked more than a bit of a look here too. SST became part of our Christmases a while ago. Was glad to see the tradition had been kept up. Was also moved in a way I’d find difficult to analyse, given I have no military background myself and am from another country anyway.
Also pondered the contents of some stuff that came out recently.
And as a rest from the heavyweights, the ineffable Borrell. Borrell on the EU:-
” We are the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion that humankind has been able to create.” So take that, City on a Hill, from the ineffable Borrell himself. Our European hill is higher, seems.
And Borrell on Ukraine:-
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine. And if we don’t change course rapidly, if we don’t mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine. Similarly if we are not able to stop the tragedy which is happening in Gaza, I think our project will be very much damaged.”
From
The Gerasimov interested me most. I gave it a one for clarity. Also a one for something else.
I have a very private and very one-sided dispute with Mearsheimer. One sided because Mearsheimer knows nothing of me though I know a bit about him – and am, as it happens, one of his admirers. Mearsheimer has, as scholars do, got the wrong end of the stick He reckons Putin invaded Ukraine because NATO had been pushing Russia for decades and the Russians wanted to put a stop to it. I reckon Putin invaded Ukraine because if he hadn’t Ukraine would have invaded the Donbass. I claim Gerasimov as my witness, not Mearsheimer’s:-
“For eight years, the West has been actively building up the military potential of the Ukrainian armed forces, pushing Kiev towards a resolution of the conflict in Donbass by force and an invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
“Because of that, Russia was forced to begin the special military operation.”
That’s from the middle link above. The brief summary Gerasimov gave to the military attaches.
Because I don’t think that we in the West will ever understand what happened that February 2022 when Putin decided to let his generals loose. He wasn’t thinking, as Mearsheimer and just about everyone else insists “This NATO caper’s getting a bit much. Think I’ll roll me some tanks across the border to put a stop to it.” That wasn’t what he was doing at all. He was saying “Bloody hell. Time to get a move on. If I don’t look out the Kiev forces will be in the Donbass and it’ll be the devil’s own job shifting them.”
So he gave his generals their head – they were no doubt champing at the bit anyway – and the rest is history.
So in between the mince pies and Christmas tree and the roast beef – we gave the turkey a rest this year – I suppose all that was churning around inside somewhere. I saw Martyanov’s also been looking at the missile hit on the ship in Feodosia so pitched in a comment on that there. To the effect that every time we put the Ukrainians up to enterprises like that the more certain it becomes that remnant Ukraine will be neutralised: the Russians can’t afford to leave that remnant as a source of further trouble.
But that conclusion’s been set in stone for more than a year. None seem to have drawn the next obvious conclusion. If we in Europe are heading for Cold war II, as the ISW paper makes clear and as Scholz and Borrell obviously want, the Russians will have little difficulty neutralising Europe as well. They merely have to stop supplying us with fuel and raw materials. I don’t see the “Rapid Response Force” Scholz and Stoltenberg are after coming to much if Europe’s an economic wreck.
” We are the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion that humankind has been able to create.”
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine. And if we don’t change course rapidly, if we don’t mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine. Similarly if we are not able to stop the tragedy which is happening in Gaza, I think our project will be very much damaged.”
A dual citizen running a government implies divided loyalty. Unless that was honorary, wiki doesn’t say. Argentina has had bad government since the Falkland’s war, and under Perone before then.
Be my guest reading Seymour Hersh today. Is he trying to tell us something with his seemingly irrelevant mention of a delivery of nerve gas to Germany in 1979 whereby he meets Bibi for a brief chat and receives satellite photos the next day? Delivery of nerve gas by who? I will keep my thoughts to myself. But it’s fairly obvious what conclusion is being prompted when the devil himself is the one with the photos. What is Hersh really trying to say that he can’t or won’t say? Why was his last story about his old friend, a lawyer who handled hugely sensitive cases who died years ago?
You’d think so, possibly, but it’s impossible to tell from this distance. Was our Israeli spy US Navy analyst Pollard’s network involved in trading for that data in return for his pilfered materials? I have no clue. To me the entire Hersh story is weird. Wilkerson is coming right out and practically calling Netanyahu Hitler. The links between Jabotinsky’s faction of Zionism (in the driver’s seat now for decades in Israel) and European fascism are well known but of course you don’t hear about them in a country – the USA – where the press, publishing and media are outright owned by the same people.
Turkish sources claim those S-400 systems they bought from Putin are garbage. Buyer’s remorse. We tried to tell them but Erdogan got conned by Putin’s marketing spiels:
I expect China and India are now hurriedly trying to fix the bugs in theirs, redesigning them with better electronics, or probably starting from scratch with their own design.
what is the nature of the flow ? Couldn’t find that info in the articles you linked.
Mostly it’s about Turkey wanting to develop its own AD systems and complaining that the Russians don’t want to include the “technology transfer” in the S400 deal.
It is understandable that the Turks want to develop their own system. It is also understandable that the Russians don’t want to give a NATO member keys to the castle.
Erdogan is a horse trader. He’ll call Netanyahu a new Hitler one day, and do business with him the next day.
Wiz – The nature of the flaws as I understand are:
– range specs are bogus, the 400km hype is for a 747 or Airbus Beluga sized aircraft flying over 12 miles high in the stratosphere in clear weather;
– short range specs are only valid if the S400 is situated on flat terrain with no radar masking by mountains;
– susceptibility to spoofing & jamming;
– inability to detect and track stealth platforms.
There are no keys to the castle. S400 technology is 30 years old.
the “flaws” you list are true for pretty much every ground based AD system. Patriot suffers from the same “flaws” and is also decades old tech.
I suggest you check out Tom Cooper’s articles for a detailed discussion of radar coverage, AD systems, situation in Ukraine with respect to air war etc.
So Tom Cooper thinks he’s an expert because as a boy he read a few books written by US pilots on the air war over Nam? And he never took the time to find or read the North Vietnamese side. He should have read General Hoang Van Khanh’s Taking Aim at the B52s or Xiaobing Li’s Voices From Viet-Nam. The Ukrainian air defense units used an updated version of the NVA SAM traps to take down those SU-34s, Su-35s, SU-30s, SU-24s & SU-25s. And they’ve done damn well against Kinzhals. Putin’s S400 is no competition, except in hype.
You are quick to deny Tom’s expertise and articles (and his many books on the subject of air warfare) and yet what have you offered instead ?
A claim that it is a flaw specific to S400 that its detection range drops with target’s altitude.
I didn’t know you’re a flat earther.
S400 is a capable system for what it is meant to do in a layered and integrated AD. Ukrainians and Russians have been using older systems than that to keep each other’s planes in check.
I used to see some of Cooper’s articles years ago on the War is Boring blog. He seemed knowledgeable at that time.
You and Cooper may be right and I may wrong about the S400? It did after all shoot down the SU-27 of the Gray Wolf, Colonel Oksanchenko, during the Battle of Kyiv on day two of the Russkii invasion.
Perhaps it is a well-designed and effective air defense system, but is only doing poorly because of the poor training of some of its crews? Or perhaps by superior Ukrainian (i.e. Western) electronic warfare against it? There has to be some reason why they can’t use them to defend Crimea, Bryansk and Belgorod.
Basically, if the target is at an altitude that puts it under the curvature of the earth then it can’t be seen by the S-400 radar?
Hardly revelatory, leith.
There are some over-the-horizon radars – Australia has fielded a system for decades – but afaik none of them can provide targeting information for SAMs.
The Soviets had rudimentary OTH radars 50 years ago. The first one was built in the 1970s in the Ukrainian SSR. The Russians have built newer models. They have nothing to do with the S400 AFAIK. Although the S400’s longest range missiles are hyped as being able to take out low-altitude targets at distances beyond the radio horizon. That’s horsepucky IMHO, nothing but Putin’s bragging. And the S400’s low-altitude missile only has a short range anyway and does not need any OTH capability.
The S400 so far has turned out to be a failure. Which is amazing to me as the Soviets used to be very good at air defense and building effective SAM systems. Putin and his oligarchs have trashed that just as they have trashed the country. Our fault probably for pushing them to sell off state assets back in ’91.
“Although the S400’s longest range missiles are hyped as being able to take out low-altitude targets at distances beyond the radio horizon”
By whom?
My understanding is that the Russians hyped the long-range missiles in the S-400 as a way of taking out the force-multipliers: the AWACS and the in-flight refuelling aircraft.
Almaz-Antey Aerospace and Defense Company, the designer & developer, said so. They claimed that at 380 km range the destruction of aerodynamic targets (excluding ballistic missiles) is 0.01 to 30 km altitude.
I can imagine how the vast satellite internet 10 in 1 fit in your back pocket tool that the Pentagon & CIA hologram Elon Musk (he’s entirely fake) designed and is flying around the near solar system could easily be used to do over the horizon SAM targeting and much else. But don’t tell anyone, because in addition to violation of secrecy laws that can be drawn up anytime and predated before being discovered under Biden’s pillow in a vacation house which has its address printed on a swarch warrant (featured on the evening news) … That would possibly make us vulnerable to Chinese spy balloons powered by encrypted Tiktok videos whose popularity drives a covert electronic flywheel which is fed current as a function of number of clicks which it deceptively overcounts for that specific devious purpose and others too threatening to mention.
leith,
Did you forget that the RF armed forces could conquer all of Ukraine up to the Dnieper at least without even Crossing the border or using nukes? I thought so. Just a friendly reminder. 🙃🙉🙃 And that’s almost as funny as how the dollar is being replaced or how flying saucers are real, I’m not sure which. Maybe the funniest is how Bitcoin was invented by an unknown person in Tokyo because the New Yorker magazine said so. Ok, maybe I have an unusual sense of humor.
TTG – this was recorded not overly long ago in the past but if you asked these Russian villagers today about the Novocherkassk LST they’d tell you it wasn’t Ukrainians who destroyed it but the British and the Ukrainians were allowed the honor of pushing the button.
Rural Russians, why do you support Putin if you ..
https://youtu.be/RzBS2hdXI14
We were watching all the Prophecy’s
Being fulfilled on the News as recorded in The Bible that Col Lang believe in As a Templar And We celebrated the Birth of Jesus … Over Christmas The next Celebration is My Wifes 88th Birthdsy next week
Happy New Year to aall.. Good Health
Jim
Kunduz said to Shiraz.To Bushehr it goes.So it sailed.
Zelensky will be in Moscow to dictate terms any day now. I’m sure the Russians don’t look at this and see 50% of the ships damaged or sunk were struck with weapons provided by NATO launched from a government funded fully by NATO, or more precisely the USA.
“…meager results of the much ballyhooed Spring/Summer counteroffensive.”
I’m sure the butcher’s bill is not meager, it is just that we don’t hear about it. Now the news is all “Palestine” all the time.
appears Ukraine hasn’t progressed to the “we’re losing so we’d best negotiate” phase, much less the “we’ve lost the traditional war so let’s shift to irregular / guerrilla ops” phase quite yet. they might’ve even learned that a counter-offensive is not always the route to strategic victory… after all, Putin has taught that a big offense doesn’t always pay off either.
a new kind of stalemate? well-supplied active defensive tactics, training & tech vs massed meat marching to death? heck, even Red China & N Korea figured out that wasn’t worth it.
Ukraine has spent the summer killing off the Russian armor and artillery. It’s going away much faster than the Russians can replace it, and once it’s gone Ukraine will have a much easier time of it when they attack.
I’m not sure they should conduct major offenses at this point. it lessens their significantly advantageous loss ratio while draining Russia – a series of failed offenses indeed burns through arms (purchased, fabricated & organic).
Putin’s solution will be a move to full-scale mobilization of the population & economy – no more “guns AND butter” – with more of the same failure modes, upscaled. a sure burden upon his rule.
Ukraine & its allies (esp the frontline states) will have made the adjustments (across all aspects of their societies) required to keep Russia in check for as long as it takes – no rule of history says war can’t last longer than we’d like.
Over Christmas? Big family Christmas and kept well away from Ukraine and Palestine. None I met or was with mentioned them either. Wondered if the Izzies would give the bombing of Gaza a break for Christmas, given there are Christians there too. Sneaked a look at the news for a few minutes and found they hadn’t.
Sneaked more than a bit of a look here too. SST became part of our Christmases a while ago. Was glad to see the tradition had been kept up. Was also moved in a way I’d find difficult to analyse, given I have no military background myself and am from another country anyway.
Also pondered the contents of some stuff that came out recently.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12492224@egNews
And as a rest from the heavyweights, the ineffable Borrell. Borrell on the EU:-
” We are the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion that humankind has been able to create.” So take that, City on a Hill, from the ineffable Borrell himself. Our European hill is higher, seems.
And Borrell on Ukraine:-
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine. And if we don’t change course rapidly, if we don’t mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine. Similarly if we are not able to stop the tragedy which is happening in Gaza, I think our project will be very much damaged.”
From
The Gerasimov interested me most. I gave it a one for clarity. Also a one for something else.
I have a very private and very one-sided dispute with Mearsheimer. One sided because Mearsheimer knows nothing of me though I know a bit about him – and am, as it happens, one of his admirers. Mearsheimer has, as scholars do, got the wrong end of the stick He reckons Putin invaded Ukraine because NATO had been pushing Russia for decades and the Russians wanted to put a stop to it. I reckon Putin invaded Ukraine because if he hadn’t Ukraine would have invaded the Donbass. I claim Gerasimov as my witness, not Mearsheimer’s:-
“For eight years, the West has been actively building up the military potential of the Ukrainian armed forces, pushing Kiev towards a resolution of the conflict in Donbass by force and an invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
“Because of that, Russia was forced to begin the special military operation.”
That’s from the middle link above. The brief summary Gerasimov gave to the military attaches.
Because I don’t think that we in the West will ever understand what happened that February 2022 when Putin decided to let his generals loose. He wasn’t thinking, as Mearsheimer and just about everyone else insists “This NATO caper’s getting a bit much. Think I’ll roll me some tanks across the border to put a stop to it.” That wasn’t what he was doing at all. He was saying “Bloody hell. Time to get a move on. If I don’t look out the Kiev forces will be in the Donbass and it’ll be the devil’s own job shifting them.”
So he gave his generals their head – they were no doubt champing at the bit anyway – and the rest is history.
So in between the mince pies and Christmas tree and the roast beef – we gave the turkey a rest this year – I suppose all that was churning around inside somewhere. I saw Martyanov’s also been looking at the missile hit on the ship in Feodosia so pitched in a comment on that there. To the effect that every time we put the Ukrainians up to enterprises like that the more certain it becomes that remnant Ukraine will be neutralised: the Russians can’t afford to leave that remnant as a source of further trouble.
But that conclusion’s been set in stone for more than a year. None seem to have drawn the next obvious conclusion. If we in Europe are heading for Cold war II, as the ISW paper makes clear and as Scholz and Borrell obviously want, the Russians will have little difficulty neutralising Europe as well. They merely have to stop supplying us with fuel and raw materials. I don’t see the “Rapid Response Force” Scholz and Stoltenberg are after coming to much if Europe’s an economic wreck.
.
I put the Guardian link in wrong – the quote from Borrell – so it didn’t come up. May I insert it here?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/24/eu-foreign-policy-chief-fears-rightwing-surge-in-june-elections
The Borrell quotes from that link being:-
” We are the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion that humankind has been able to create.”
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine. And if we don’t change course rapidly, if we don’t mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine. Similarly if we are not able to stop the tragedy which is happening in Gaza, I think our project will be very much damaged.”
Borrel thinks so highly of the EU that he obtained Argentinan citizenship in 2019.
Fred,
Being a Spaniard, Argentinian citizenship isn’t too farfetched, but it does seem to be a losing bet.
A dual citizen running a government implies divided loyalty. Unless that was honorary, wiki doesn’t say. Argentina has had bad government since the Falkland’s war, and under Perone before then.
Be my guest reading Seymour Hersh today. Is he trying to tell us something with his seemingly irrelevant mention of a delivery of nerve gas to Germany in 1979 whereby he meets Bibi for a brief chat and receives satellite photos the next day? Delivery of nerve gas by who? I will keep my thoughts to myself. But it’s fairly obvious what conclusion is being prompted when the devil himself is the one with the photos. What is Hersh really trying to say that he can’t or won’t say? Why was his last story about his old friend, a lawyer who handled hugely sensitive cases who died years ago?
A history of negation.
https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/a-history-of-negation
I am a subscriber and read it, what are you insinuating
gordon reed and F&L,
The satellite photos were from the Soviets?
You’d think so, possibly, but it’s impossible to tell from this distance. Was our Israeli spy US Navy analyst Pollard’s network involved in trading for that data in return for his pilfered materials? I have no clue. To me the entire Hersh story is weird. Wilkerson is coming right out and practically calling Netanyahu Hitler. The links between Jabotinsky’s faction of Zionism (in the driver’s seat now for decades in Israel) and European fascism are well known but of course you don’t hear about them in a country – the USA – where the press, publishing and media are outright owned by the same people.
Turkish sources claim those S-400 systems they bought from Putin are garbage. Buyer’s remorse. We tried to tell them but Erdogan got conned by Putin’s marketing spiels:
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2020/02/01/turkey-exposed-fatal-flaws-in-russian-made-s-400-surface-to-air-missile/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/turkey-looks-to-replace-s-400-missiles-air-defense-system/
I expect China and India are now hurriedly trying to fix the bugs in theirs, redesigning them with better electronics, or probably starting from scratch with their own design.
leith
what is the nature of the flow ? Couldn’t find that info in the articles you linked.
Mostly it’s about Turkey wanting to develop its own AD systems and complaining that the Russians don’t want to include the “technology transfer” in the S400 deal.
It is understandable that the Turks want to develop their own system. It is also understandable that the Russians don’t want to give a NATO member keys to the castle.
Erdogan is a horse trader. He’ll call Netanyahu a new Hitler one day, and do business with him the next day.
Wiz – The nature of the flaws as I understand are:
– range specs are bogus, the 400km hype is for a 747 or Airbus Beluga sized aircraft flying over 12 miles high in the stratosphere in clear weather;
– short range specs are only valid if the S400 is situated on flat terrain with no radar masking by mountains;
– susceptibility to spoofing & jamming;
– inability to detect and track stealth platforms.
There are no keys to the castle. S400 technology is 30 years old.
leith
the “flaws” you list are true for pretty much every ground based AD system. Patriot suffers from the same “flaws” and is also decades old tech.
I suggest you check out Tom Cooper’s articles for a detailed discussion of radar coverage, AD systems, situation in Ukraine with respect to air war etc.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-31-may-2023-that-with
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-air-war-assault-mode-part
Wiz –
So Tom Cooper thinks he’s an expert because as a boy he read a few books written by US pilots on the air war over Nam? And he never took the time to find or read the North Vietnamese side. He should have read General Hoang Van Khanh’s Taking Aim at the B52s or Xiaobing Li’s Voices From Viet-Nam. The Ukrainian air defense units used an updated version of the NVA SAM traps to take down those SU-34s, Su-35s, SU-30s, SU-24s & SU-25s. And they’ve done damn well against Kinzhals. Putin’s S400 is no competition, except in hype.
leith
You are quick to deny Tom’s expertise and articles (and his many books on the subject of air warfare) and yet what have you offered instead ?
A claim that it is a flaw specific to S400 that its detection range drops with target’s altitude.
I didn’t know you’re a flat earther.
S400 is a capable system for what it is meant to do in a layered and integrated AD. Ukrainians and Russians have been using older systems than that to keep each other’s planes in check.
Wiz –
I used to see some of Cooper’s articles years ago on the War is Boring blog. He seemed knowledgeable at that time.
You and Cooper may be right and I may wrong about the S400? It did after all shoot down the SU-27 of the Gray Wolf, Colonel Oksanchenko, during the Battle of Kyiv on day two of the Russkii invasion.
Perhaps it is a well-designed and effective air defense system, but is only doing poorly because of the poor training of some of its crews? Or perhaps by superior Ukrainian (i.e. Western) electronic warfare against it? There has to be some reason why they can’t use them to defend Crimea, Bryansk and Belgorod.
Basically, if the target is at an altitude that puts it under the curvature of the earth then it can’t be seen by the S-400 radar?
Hardly revelatory, leith.
There are some over-the-horizon radars – Australia has fielded a system for decades – but afaik none of them can provide targeting information for SAMs.
Yeah Right –
The Soviets had rudimentary OTH radars 50 years ago. The first one was built in the 1970s in the Ukrainian SSR. The Russians have built newer models. They have nothing to do with the S400 AFAIK. Although the S400’s longest range missiles are hyped as being able to take out low-altitude targets at distances beyond the radio horizon. That’s horsepucky IMHO, nothing but Putin’s bragging. And the S400’s low-altitude missile only has a short range anyway and does not need any OTH capability.
The S400 so far has turned out to be a failure. Which is amazing to me as the Soviets used to be very good at air defense and building effective SAM systems. Putin and his oligarchs have trashed that just as they have trashed the country. Our fault probably for pushing them to sell off state assets back in ’91.
“Although the S400’s longest range missiles are hyped as being able to take out low-altitude targets at distances beyond the radio horizon”
By whom?
My understanding is that the Russians hyped the long-range missiles in the S-400 as a way of taking out the force-multipliers: the AWACS and the in-flight refuelling aircraft.
Yeah Right –
Almaz-Antey Aerospace and Defense Company, the designer & developer, said so. They claimed that at 380 km range the destruction of aerodynamic targets (excluding ballistic missiles) is 0.01 to 30 km altitude.
Did they now?
When, exactly?
I can imagine how the vast satellite internet 10 in 1 fit in your back pocket tool that the Pentagon & CIA hologram Elon Musk (he’s entirely fake) designed and is flying around the near solar system could easily be used to do over the horizon SAM targeting and much else. But don’t tell anyone, because in addition to violation of secrecy laws that can be drawn up anytime and predated before being discovered under Biden’s pillow in a vacation house which has its address printed on a swarch warrant (featured on the evening news) … That would possibly make us vulnerable to Chinese spy balloons powered by encrypted Tiktok videos whose popularity drives a covert electronic flywheel which is fed current as a function of number of clicks which it deceptively overcounts for that specific devious purpose and others too threatening to mention.
leith,
Did you forget that the RF armed forces could conquer all of Ukraine up to the Dnieper at least without even Crossing the border or using nukes? I thought so. Just a friendly reminder. 🙃🙉🙃 And that’s almost as funny as how the dollar is being replaced or how flying saucers are real, I’m not sure which. Maybe the funniest is how Bitcoin was invented by an unknown person in Tokyo because the New Yorker magazine said so. Ok, maybe I have an unusual sense of humor.