“Israel will experience an air raid of 2,000 rockets and missiles per day during a future war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, OC Home Front Command Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin warned while addressing the B’Sheva Conference in Jerusalem, according to The Jerusalem Post newspaper.
Such an onslaught will challenge Israel’s military and civil defence capabilities, the senior IDF official added.
“Our enemies on the different fronts need to know that if needed, we will activate a powerful military that has never been seen before … They know they cannot defeat us on the battlefield, so they try to move the war to a second front and that is our homes and in our cities”, Gordin said.
Israel reportedly believes that the movement has an armory of around 150,000 rockets and missiles, with some of them being able to hit anywhere inside the country.
Israel will come under a massive missile attack if a war breaks out with Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, the Home Front Command of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Monday.” AMN
Comment: Pilgrim Turcopoles, The IDF has known since 2006 that Lebanese Hizbullah is a far greater threat to Israel’s existence than the putative Iranian nuclear weapons program. There may or may not be an Iranian nuclear WEAPONS program. The US IC refuses to commit itself on the subject and has since the Iran NIE of 2007. The claim of the reality of that program is largely an IO meme, and a very successful one to date. The Iranians benefited from the illusion until Trump walked away from JCPOA and the neocon crowd headed up by Pompey the Great just loved the bugaboo Iranian bomb “threat.”
All the while the Hizbullahis and their Quds force advisers and trainers have been busy digging and fortifying the Tabouleh II Line as a shield behind which Hizbullah artillerists can shelter long enough to rain down destruction all over Israeli population centers, airfields, artillery positions etc. Drones (like the long range Houthis drones), ballistic missiles, long range artillery rockets, these would all play a major role.
The IDF ground forces do not want to fight their way through the Tabouleh Line II. They got a taste of that in 2006 and know that the task would be much more difficult 15 years later. Air Defenses over the fortified belt would be formidable. Pilots accustomed to bombing targets in Syria where there is no possibility of close in anti-aircraft fire will flinch when subjected to dense AAA fire. The possibility of the Magic BB is always in pilots’ minds especially when their aircraft begin to take hits. Hands shake, and attacks are not pressed home in circumstances like that.
The IAF can conduct strategic infrastructure attacks all over Lebanon as they did in 2006 but that is unlikely to deter Hizbullah from firing into Israel.
This situation has existed since 2006. It is an unsolvable problem for the IDF unless they decide to use nuclear weapons against Hizbullah. MG Gordin seem to be threatening that. pl
Threats of their Samson option that MG Gordon implied, I would imagine that their opponents like Hezbollah are growing tired of it.
Why won’t the U.S. IC step up and say one way or another regarding the Iran ‘stuff’ real or imagined, and speaking of IC non-committals — why are they soo afraid to broach the subject of Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal?
The claim of the reality of that program is largely an IO meme, and a very successful one to date. The Iranians benefited from the illusion until Trump walked away from JCPOA …
I am not sure if I understand, much more likely I don’t. Put another way: whose “IO meme” and why did Iranians profit?
Whose meme: centrally Israel’s and neocons’?
Iran did profit? How?
Largely an Israeli generated meme accepted eagerly by the neocons. The Iranians got a hell of a lot of their money returned in JCPOA. This agreement was based on the meme and the Iranians knew that and went along with it. That does not mean they necessarily actually have a nuclear
of a lot of their money
That they got their money back is wrong? See this I quite possibly exactly what I don’t understand.
Returns or however you like you call it were based on no longer existent interest rates? … ???
Did I say there was anything wrong with their obtaining return of their money. I did not and I don’t give a damn about interest rates. The point was that the Iranians went along with the supposition that they had a nuclear weapons program in order to get the money returned. You are the same argumentative person that you always were.
Pat, first I appreciate your response. I really do.
You are the same argumentative person that you always were
Am I? Questions for me always meant a chance to clarify matters.
Trump walked away from JCPOA and the neocon crowd headed up by Pompey the Great just loved the bugaboo Iranian bomb “threat.”
Ok, as far as I am concerned by “walking away from JCPOA” didn’t walk away from whatever existent, possible, not yet quite there, but close, red line, nuclear bomb threat but forced it back onto the agenda. With Pompeo as his helping hand.
Trump 2016He negotiated a disastrous deal with Iran, and then we watched them ignore its terms even before the ink was dry. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, cannot be allowed. Remember that, cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
And under a Trump administration, will never, ever be allowed to have that nuclear weapon.
The two Michaels?
I don’t accept the idea that there necessarily IS an Iranian “bomb threat.” IMO the Iranians may well have played us for suckers in JCPOA.
Questions, questions, questions, they never end. Thank God, I never had to serve as a political analyst.
How should I then read Trump’s emphasis on updating/up stocking the nuclear weapons arsenal, somewhat followed by the UK presently?
Nukes would be shooting themselves in the foot, something of an Israelly specialty.
You know about the “mad minute.”
If 2,000 missiles and rockets were raining down simultaneously, wouldn’t that be a mad minute to Israel – nukes?
A “mad minute” is a demonstration of firepower usually on a range. 2000 weapons a day fired into Israel would do a tremendous amount of damage, not just a demonstration.
Not magic BiBi? Freudian slippers?
My 2 cents – look at the mysterious Beirut explosion of Aug 4 last year.
The message it sent to me was that Col Lang is right about the IDF not looking forward to another ground foray as in 2006.
Was that explosion in Beirut actually mysterious?
Was it actually not what we have been told? Actually not a vast pile of ammonium nitrate aging in place for years which finally cooked off and blew up?
Or…….. making it’s way to the battle-field in Syria, where it was being used against Syrian, Hizbollian, Iranian and Russian forces, someone, nudge nudge, wink wink, decided to remove it from the ‘field’………….the only people served with the removal of said ‘high grade’ AN were forces deployed against ISIS head choppin’ liver eaters in Syria. I know what I would do, if I as CO found out where the Vied material was coming from. Really, the damage was comparable to 9/11……….controlled, contained, with minimal loss of life for such an event.
btw, Saskatewan has huge piles of AN sitting around, some of the worlds largest Potash mines are there………nothing blows up.
Gibberish. You will have to speak clearly or I will not post your comments.
Mods, please forward to the Col.
My apologies Col, after the Harbor explosion everyone and their dog pointed the finger at Israel. I am no fan of that regime so one might ask what did they have to gain, other than piling more misery on the Lebanese. It’s possible.
Hezbollah has precision guided stand off weapons, they have no need to make ‘car bombs’ which require a delivery person. My uncle lost a brother that way, poor bastard didn’t even know what he was delivering.
The fertilizer was not under the control of Hezbollah, rather, a group aligned against Hezbollah. It was being sold (reports from Lebanon) out the back door to Jihadis who in turn where taking it to Syria and using it to attack Russian, Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Watch the jihadi videos, there are many where they use vieds to carry out their attacks.
Why would Israel blow that up, it’s a gift to them and a constant supply of weapons grade material being used to fight their enemies (I believe it was covertly pre positioned, something to do with taking out 7 countries in 5 years, sorry, excuse my conspiracy digression, but it is rather convenient, and deniable).
I was just a grunt, but I’d like to believe my CO would have my best interests at heart. I read what you wrote about the NG and their poor treatment in Washington, you cared about the men under your command. So my question is, one or two fertilizer bombs on a battlefield are to be expected, but dozens and dozens, the Command at some point will start to wonder where all that material is coming from? Once identified, how do you stop the supply. The Brits control most Lebanese border check points, they are not going to stop weapons flowing out (they’d help), they are there to stop Hezbollah weapons coming in.
Could someone ask the Lebanese to stop selling it to Jihadis? Where would one start, and who there would care, all the while the fertilizer flows over the border killing one’s men.
Anyway, the bomb making material stored in Lebanon, that was being used in Syria, is gone. Accident, perhaps……..but one always asks, Cuo Bono? In this case, I don’t think it was Israel.
Cheers, and again, I apologize for my lateral disjointedness……..
ps, I grew up during The Troubles, if the IRA had proper field training and stand-off precision missiles I dare say the Good Friday Accords would be worded different.
I found a website about making potash fertilizer. I only skimmed it for a couple minutes, but in that couple minutes I found no mention of ammonium nitrate. Do you have special knowledge of how ammonium nitrate is involved in the production of potash fertilizer?
If not, then what does ammonium nitrate have to do with potash, and why would huge piles of ammonium nitrate be sitting around in the Canadian potash production zone?
Ammonium Nitrate or AN is a common term used to describe a bomb made from fertilizer, sorry if the nomenclature does not fit the weapon. Perhaps a p-n-p bomb may be more precise. Potash was never mined as a soil enhancer, it was first mined by Britain to make bombs for WW1. After the war they had large stock piles just sitting around. What to do? It has a similar chemical make up to manure, the rest, (nothing stands in the way of commerce) is history.
I had understood ammonium nitrate needed to be ground up and mixed with fuel oil to make a proper bomb. It is called ANFO for Ammoniun Nitrate Fuel Oil.
What does p n p stand for? Does the first p and n stand for ” potassium nitrate”? I web-see that potassium nitrate can be used for explosives.
So perhaps ammonium nitrate could be the nitrate-donor for turning potassium ore into potassium nitrate, for either plants or bombs depending.
But “potash”? For “potash” I get this loose definition-cluster:
See synonyms for potash on Thesaurus.com
potassium carbonate, especially the crude impure form obtained from wood ashes.
the oxide of potassium, K2O.
potassium, as carbonate of potash.
Whether its potassium as carbonate or oxide or hydroxide, it is already oxidised, too oxidised to be able to further oxidise with the kind of force needed to blow up. To get it into a blow-uppable form needs heavy energy input to reduce it to something super-oxidisable. And potash straight-from-the-mine isn’t that.
Potassium not used in agriculture? I am just a very barely amateur gardener, but I think potassium has been considered a plant-critical macro-nutrient for many decades at least. Here is a link about that.
I had understood potassium to be considered so important for plants for the last hundred years or so that it was mined for that purpose for at least that long.
Can any ag-chemists set me straight if I am wrong about that?
I wish to apologize for not having thanked you for your reply. I let myself feel to rushed to remember thanks and courtesy first.
Thank you again for having taken the time to reply to my comment.
Furthering your point, Hezbollah has been getting real fighting experience in Syria, while the IDF real world training is on . . .
A nuke in South Lebanon could easily render most of Israel uninhabitable / Israelis sterile if the winds blow the wrong way, 80% of Israel’s water comes from the north.
Seems a pretty big risk for the statelet that views itself as the Guardian of the Future of the Jewish people. Reminds me of the story of Soddom and Gomorrah if one equates several of the deadly sins and righteousness (and lack thereof) to Israeli leadership.
Irradiated water is not radioactive unless the burst was in the water itself and kicks up radioactive isotopes from the bottom. These can be filtered out. A high air burst in which the fireball does not touch the surface does not throw up fall out. The blast effect and direct radiation is what kills beneath the burst. I was qualified as a nuclear weapons targeter.
For the interested, wikipedia has a nice table:
I presume that the first line is semi relevant for hardened subterranean military tunnels/facilities.
1 kt / 200 m 20 kt / 540 m 1 Mt / 2.0 km 20 Mt / 5.4 km
Blast—effective ground range GR / km
Urban areas completely levelled (20 psi or 140 kPa) 0.2 0.6 2.4 6.4
To avoid kicking up radioactive dust seems like a dozen hydrogen bombs would be needed, and depending on how well hardened, many Hezb fighters would survive (I recall a friend calculating that 11 ft of reinforced cement could withstand a direct H-bomb hit) to engage IDF forces in a southern Lebanon / Northern Israeli hellscape. Probably best if IDF did a first sally, sent in some IDF ground forces to bring Hezb into the open and sent in a second sally. Of course, this would risk Russia deciding to put Syria and Iran under its nuclear umbrella, and massive Israeli public response if anything goes wrong (as in a bomb exploding late / in the ground and a fallout cloud heading over Israel).
Would make an interesting dystopic sci-fi story.
Hydrogen bombs? Nah. A dozen 50 kt weapons in high air bursts would do the trick.
On reflection 10 to 20 KT weapons would be better. The Israelis have hundreds.
Well if the Israelis have an unsolvable problem I suppose that problem will become our problem.
What are they expecting us to do for them?
JCJ save their asses.
The Nuclear threat appears to be targeted at Iran – ““Our enemies on the different fronts”
Once again, the major threat to Israel’s existence is from Hizbullah. The flight from the land of Israel would be impressive. I hope they go to Australia.
I agree about the major threat to Israel’s existence is from Hizbullah. But don’t you think that they may consider targeting Iran with Nuclear Weapons if missiles from Hizbullah start dropping on them at the rate indicated.
The reason being they would say the missiles or the technology came from Iran. If they wiped out Iran they may reason that Hizbullah will be neutralized going forward.
They are fanatical religious zealots as far as I’m concerned. They want give up Israel without trying to bring the whole thing down.
Whilst they almost certainly would nuke Iran it would be as a desperate, final, revenge act as after Hizbullah’s ‘shock and awe’ attack Israel would be broken economically with much in ruins with a possibility that the Palestinians might move in to reclaim their stolen lands.
The last problem on the minds of the Israelis left will be Iran.
The rest of the World would be praying that it was all over in a couple of days and that everyone apart from the two belligerents held their fire and that Israel didn’t try to bring the World down with it.
But don’t you think that they may consider targeting Iran with Nuclear Weapons …
Hmm, ok, indirectly the Samson Option? Has been floating around a lot more in early post 9/11 times than more recently.
My question to you would be, while apparently states are updating on their arsenal, who would really want to use it and in exactly what circumstances?
If you have nuclear weapons and cannot see your way clear to get rid of all of them, then you have to do maintenance on them and keep them in repair. Like any machine they require attention.
Yes, got that message here. But that wasn’t really the public message.
After all of the hell caused by the perfidious
(word not chosen at random) act of the British Balfour Declaration, the potential stream of Israeli refugees should go to Great Britain. After all, the Brits seem to be all hot to invite most of Hong Kong to emigrate to Great Britain, so obviously they already have the “Vacancy” sign hung out. This would only be a just payback, in my view; karma in action, if you will.
The Aussies don’t seem to deserve it (unless there is something I don’t know), and a sudden, rule-bending infusion of Israelis would play hob with their efforts to control immigration from east Asia, and it’d be a shame to see that brought to grief.
If you look at the timing and financial pressures at the time there seems to be an element of US banking involvement in the Declaration. The Jewish diaspora was and is spread through many financial centers not just London.
A large percentage of the Israeli population is of Russian extraction. Perhaps if they took over Ukraine (the nearest they could probably get) they would have a good chance of transforming that country for the better.
That would be rich, considering the neoNazis currently infesting Ukraine.
Warfare is now 3 dimensional.Space air ground… SAG.Tanks and missile launchers are sitting ducks.
The second problem is the day after for lebanon.Will civilians survive the war and will they return to there homes.I would say that you will see a massive exodus from a population held hostage.The economic incentive to stay is already precarious.
Peace is a better option.
What does the SAG have to do with this?
no BRA situation
haven’t you heard that song
oh you can’t go to heaven in granny’s bra
cause granny’s bra can’t stretch that far
Try speaking English rather than in riddles.
BRA……stands for bearing range altitude.Any counter attack on either of these 3 factors leads to failure.All engines run on fuel.Degrading the fuel will effect BRA.And that is that said the cat.
The volume of fire can easily overwhelm Israeli defenses.
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This could be the first “strategic infrastructure” war in which both sides take out each others water, electricity, and sewage treatment facilities.
I think the Israeli citizenry will vote out of office any leadership that imposes such hardship on them.
If things had progressed that far, politics would be near the lowest citizenry concern.
the 120mm guided mortar has no fuel.the propellant is powder.israel has something called the “iron sting.”probably a better bet than anything with fuel.Imagine firing a missile and it flys 10m and falls out the sky.a hundred of those situations could be terrifying for hezbollah.
Evidently israel has drones that haul the mortars into battle.
Israeli BS. You didn’t do so well in ’06 and this time will be even tougher.
I was on ICH and fought them to a standstill.2021 has seen vast improvements in speed and processing power especially on level 42.
I’ll bite. What is ICH? Who did you fight to a standstill?
Apparently ‘Iron Sting’ is a mortar shell with GPS and laser guidance. Designed for urban use to minimise civilian casualties although I’m puzzled as to why they would worry about that when using in Gaza. A mortar shell has no fuel but its launcher be it a tube or a drone does.
Seems a pretty strange paragraph you have written.
missiles need propellant,seems to be a shortage for some reason.Difficult stuff propellant.Mortars are a better option.The era of fuel driven engines in military hardware is fast coming to an end.
Mortars are peashooters for the kind of work we are talking about. You should have done some actual soldiering.
A mortar shell has no fuel, but its launcher be it a tube or a drone does.
Fuel no doubt is an interesting factor considering the larger present political context.
Fuel considered the weak spot of the opponent?:
All engines run on fuel. Degrading the fuel will effect BRA. And that is that said the cat.
degrading? Needing less?
The series of tests was carried out using two networked cardom mortar systems that were developed by Elbit Systems: a “cardom” system, mounted on an M113 APC and a “cardom spear” system, mounted on a Hummer 4X4 SUV. The Iron Sting is designed to engage targets precisely, in both open terrains and urban environments, while reducing the possibility of collateral damage and preventing injury to non-combatants. Its operational use will revolutionize ground warfare and equip battalions with organic, accurate and effective firepower.
Sounds a bit like a press release, but here we go:
The CARDOM Aiming mechanisms are linked to state-of-the-art command, control and communication systems, to achieve quick response automatic laying mode. The IDF delivered Cardom system takes target acquisition data, that provides range, bearing, position and other data from an observation point and transmits it directly to the Cardom system. Using electrical servo motors the mortar barrel is then set at the exact traverse and elevation angles ready for firing.
Laser guided sounds much more impressive than an electrical servo motor. Is every closed feedback loop closed enough?
why do you presume to discuss such a subject?
sorry to disappoint…..ICH stands for
I was a level 42 keyboard warrior on the forums.Fought the anti israelites .After that I moved to mondoweiss and fought the liberal jewish anti israelites during the obama years.Phil weiss has fond memories of me, and now I am retired poet We can’t all be rangers you know.
However information can replace a missile with a comma when placed correctly.Absolutely.
I don’t claim to be a military strategist, but couldn’t the IDF bypass the Tabouleh II Line by going through Syria and then turning west to get behind those fortifications?
After all, it’s not as if Israel has ever shown any respect for Syrian territorial integrity…..
That has always been a possibility but Israeli fear of casualties has prevented it and IMO is still a major deterrent to that course of action.
Indeed they could but it would turn it into a narrow front with the SAA joining in attacking their flank. Heavy casualties as the Colonel says.
Also, soon after crossing the Syria/Lebanon border it would strike the Israelis that there wasn’t much point in going further as their country was destroyed by rockets/missiles behind them. Also if they went much further they risked being under the nuclear barrage that was about to happen.
The Israeli’s chances of a long life really seem to me to be down to doing a deal with Lebanon and its factions. They are learning the lesson of many in history that military might can only take you so far. If it wasn’t for the US pouring effectively free weapons and munitions in in huge quantities maybe we would be at that stage already.
But, then again, it could still happen the other way around.
If the IDF just smashed up against the Tabouleh II Line they could became pinned to it. That could present an irresistible temptation for the Syrians to intervene to strike their flank and, basically, bag the better part of the IDF.
That would represent a Arab victory that perhaps, just perhaps, could drive a stake through the very heart of Zionism as the dual-passport holders flocked to the departure lounge.
I don’t think General Gordon is losing any sleep over those 2k/day. He undoubtedly spoke of it to gin up support to get more budget for Arrow-4 development and fielding. Plus upgrades for David’s Sling, Iron Dome, and others.
If he is not worried about it, he should be. IMO Hizbullah can make Israel into a formerly Jewish state.
You are undoubtedly right. Especially since the Izzy Missile Defense Forces will have to focus on two different threat axes just to make sure Iran doesn’t lob something their way while they are defending against the Hez. Or maybe three threat axes? Can the Houthi drones reach Eilat, if not now, then maybe soon?
But why would Hezbollah launch such a massive missile and rocket attack on that scale? My guess is they would not unless the IDF invades Lebanon again. But why would the Izzies do that after their failure in 2006? And the Izzies know the Hez have the M600 missile with which they could reach the Dimona Reactor and Nuclear Center. It would only take one. Why risk that?
And Hez knows that while they have been rebuilding and increasing their missile and rocket arsenal that Israel is not still mired in 2006 tactics & equipment. The Izzies now have lots of rocketry themselves to fire back. Between the M270 MLRS, LAR-160, and Jumper systems they can probably also launch 2000/day. And their targeting now has improved tenfold with their OFEQ satellites. I believe they have six or seven in orbit with resolution less than half a meter, the newer ones get it down to a tenth of a meter. They gave OFEQ imagery to the Azeris during the recent Nagorno-Karabak war that gave them pinpoint accuracy to destroy Armenian missile & gun sites. They can even depend on their commercial imagery EROS satellites for targeting. EROS-C has a 0.38 meter (15 inches) resolution.
Israel is mired in its model of a militia army that cannot break out of its limits.
Exactly. Which is why they won’t send ground troops north anymore.
Just a guess on my part, but in 2006 the Israeli leadership dithered, expecting their airforce to deal with Hezbollah’s missile sites.
When that didn’t work they ordered limited ground assaults which, basically, did nothing except embarrass the IDF troops.
By the time they ordered the IDF to launch itself in force to the Litani River it was too late – UNSC Res 1701 put an end to the farce.
So based on that I would suspect that IDF battle plans now call for an immediate, massive invasion by every soldier they can call up.
After all, if 2006 didn’t work out then… do the opposite.
That’s gotta work….
The danger is that the IDF can send its boys and girls marching into hostile territory and find that they don’t come back.
That’s happened to more impressive militaries than the IDF. Think of Athens sending an army to Sicily and losing the lot. Or the British sending an army into Afghanistan and never seeing it again.
The CofS of the IDF in 2006 was Benny Gantz, an air force officer. He was quite sure that no serious ground attack would be necessary. Air attacks against both HB defenses on the ground and their artillery (missiles, et.) proved ineffective for the reasons I gave you earlier but which you don’t want to believe. IDF ground attacks filed. HB infantry fighting from well prepared and sited positions proved to be more enemy than Gucci generation IDF infantry wanted to fight. when none of that worked the IAF bombed infrastructure all over Lebanon in the hope that Lebanon would force HB to stop fighting. This was straight Douhet strategic bombing hooey. That did not work either and it won’t work in another war against HB. The IDF of today is not what you would like to believe it is. It is basically a force accustomed to pushing Palestinian civilians around.
IMO Iran has been playing both D.C. and Israel like a fiddle.
D.C.’s and Israel’s politicians, weapons makers, and mercenaries play the fear card in order to get their new toys and funds for their mansions and fast boats. It’s called the hog-trough.
Iran has been working the nuclear field for medicinal and civilian infrastructure developments.
Scuttle butt years ago was that Putin went to Tehran and had a hard talk with Iran’s rulers and they handed over all of their nuclear weapons developments to the Russians who promptly took control of them and took them to Russia.
All inference regarding it have been scrubbed from the web.
You are right. Playing the fear card is exactly what MG Uri Gordin is doing to get new toys. There is a major battle going on between Israel’s Finance Ministry and Defense Ministry over the size of the next defense budget. And there are also foodfights going on within the Defense Ministry. Gordin’s small Home Front Command is sucking hind tit well behind the IAF, iN, and the various IGF commands.
Nah! Sometimes a cigar is just a smoke. What is it with you people who think the Israelis are so bad assed? Are you a Zionist? Is this Zionist propaganda?
Actually I share your opinion of the current crop of Izzy ground troops. The Hez will clean their clock if they try to push up to the Litani again.
And I believe we have the same distaste for the American politicians and the K-street Israeli-firster lobbyists who suck up to Netanyahu and his ilk.