Mick Ryan on the coming Ukrainian offensive – TTG

Over the past two months, Russian forces have undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern Ukraine to capture territory and weaken Ukraine’s armed forces. In regions around Kreminna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka they have made some gains, but at high cost in soldiers, equipment and munitions. In other locations, such as Vuhledar, they have made almost no progress while suffering catastrophic defeats against well-prepared Ukrainian defensive positions. Soon, it will be the Ukrainians’ turn to resume offensive operations. It is important to explore the purpose of these offensives because those planning them will have to balance multiple political, strategic and military imperatives.

Purpose in these circumstances is vital. It provides the starting point for strategy, and operational planning. But it also ensures that those who will participate in these offensives understand why they do so. Soldiers will always follow orders. But it is purpose that inspires them, provides the foundation for extra exertions and often is the reason why so many offer their “last full measure of devotion” on the battlefield.

What are the elements of purpose in Ukraine’s forthcoming offensives?

First, Ukraine wants to re-seize the initiative in this war. Their Kharkiv and Kherson offensives grasped the initiative from the Russians and forced them onto the defensive over winter. However, for a variety of reasons — including slow arrival of Western support and the injection of Russian mobilised troops — Ukrainian momentum seeped away over the Christmas-New Year period. Now, with the Russians generating momentum with their Easter attacks, the Ukrainians will be keen to reverse it and regain their battlefield advantage, demonstrating to Russians that nothing they do can destroy Ukrainian resolve. 

In this battle of wills, destroying Russian morale will be an important objective. Related to this is the desire to demonstrate to the Russians — from Putin to the bottom of their army — that they cannot win this war. Defeat always causes problems with morale and cohesion. The Ukrainian armed forces will be hoping to achieve surprise, generate shock and, in the process, destroy Russia. Ukraine will want to spread the word to the entire Russian invasion and occupation force that their days in Ukraine are numbered. This psychological aspect of offensive operations is very important.

The Ukrainians also want to take back their territory. This is an obvious and important goal, and one Zelenskyy frequently refers to in his speeches. Large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine remain under the oppressive fist of Russian occupation. It is hardly an enlightened Russian presence. Instead, it provides the foundation for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, the subjugation of civilians and press-ganging of Ukrainians to fight against their fellow countrymen. For those in Ukrainian areas still occupied by the Russians, the Ukrainian offensives will provide a ray of hope that their turn for liberation will come soon. Such hope is vital as they look forward to return of Ukrainian forces.

Another obvious purpose of the offensives is to continue degrading the Russian Army. The Ukrainians will want to destroy as much of the Russian army as possible, although this will be subordinate to recapturing territory.

The Ukrainian offensives will also be a vital message to the West that the Ukrainian armed forces are able employers of the military assistance provided over the last few months. If they can show that they can absorb and use it quickly and competently, more aid will flow. And, like the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, there will be some hope that the Ukrainian offensives will reignite Western attention on the war and ensure that both politicians and populations support continued aid.

Finally, the offensives matter a lot to the Ukrainian people at home and those who remain refugees abroad. Since 2014, Russia has occupied its territory and conducted a sustained information campaign against the notion of Ukrainian sovereignty. Since February 2022, the people of Ukraine have endured rape, murder, the abduction of their children, destruction of their cities, the death of their sons and daughters in battle, and deliberate attempts by Russia to eradicate Ukrainian culture, symbols and nationhood. Every Ukrainian I have spoken to wants some measure of justice for the horrors visited upon them. The forthcoming Ukrainian offensives are another opportunity to free more of their citizens from Russian rule, and to again show the Russians that their form of vicious, authoritarian government is not welcome in Ukraine.

The offensives launched in the next few months will be heartbreakingly bloody, and may not be the final blow that destroys the Russian Army in Ukraine. But if the West holds its nerve, and the Ukrainians steadfastly apply their fighting power against the Russians while taking back large swathes of land, the offensives may be the beginning of the end of this war.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/ukraine-2023-offensives-russia-retake-territory-west-war/102148638

Comment: This is the latest essay by Mick Ryan, a recently retired Australian Army major general. He commanded at platoon, squadron, regiment, task force, and brigade level. He also commanded the Australian Defence College in Canberra and was an adjunct scholar at the Modern War Institute prior to his active duty retirement. This essay addresses the why rather than the how. In my opinion the question of why is more important than the questions and mechanics of how. The why encompasses the idea of morale, a factor that often compensates for shortages in manpower and equipment. But what morale can’t compensate for is a surfeit of ignorance and stupidity.

But on the question of how, I find it interesting and heartening that Ukraine is organizing her newly formed and equipped brigades into three corps. I doubt this is merely for accounting purposes. Each of these corps headquarters has planning and operational staffs and control logistical and combat support forces that augment the capabilities of the new brigades. With all the focus on Western tanks and IFVs, the arrival of significant amounts of engineering equipment was largely unnoticed. Russian defensive lines may be shabbily constructed, but they still must be breached. We also don’t hear about the arrival of trucks and fuel tankers that will be part of these corps support units. The three corps headquarters will give Ukraine the flexibility to launch more than one offensive effort and to rapidly respond to changes and opportunities on the battlefield. It will also make it easier to incorporate veteran units into the offensive as required.

TTG

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89 Responses to Mick Ryan on the coming Ukrainian offensive – TTG

  1. Fourth and Long says:

    A 2nd giant ‘hole’ has appeared on the sun, and it could send 1.8 million-mph solar winds toward Earth:
    https://www.businessinsider.com/second-giant-coronal-hole-sun-solar-winds-space-weather-aurora-2023-3
    A coronal hole on the sun, about 20 Earths across, has been spotted.

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    The winds should hit our planet Friday or Saturday and could create auroras, experts said.
    —————
    The pictures of the sun rotating with that hole on the equator. Very something.
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    “Look at the bodies of the little children, Mr President. Shot to death by a 28 yr old transexual who used make pronouns.”

    “Chocolate chip.”

    “Chocolate chip?”

    “Yes this is chocolate chip ice cream and there’s plenty more upstairs and I’m not kidding.”

    “You can’t be serious.”

    “Nope, I am. Good deal, eh, chocolate chip.”

    ————
    We now continue our regularly scheduled broadcast, while a huge magnetic storm hurtles toward our planet from a huge hole on the Sun, at approximately 1.8 million miles per hour as president Joe Biden recommended Chocolate Chip ice cream while ambulances and medical staff removed the bodies of 3 eight year old children and 3 teachers aged 61, 61 and 60. Please pay no particular attention to the initial digits of those last three numbers representing their ages. That has nothing to do with anything. We are the news. Thank you and enjoy whatever you manage to do next or enjoy doing nothing at all. Please consider our shopping channel located at ..

  2. Jovan P says:

    хundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are dead. What’s the point of sacrificing thousands more? To simulate some new offensive in the Ardens and achieve new PR victories?

    • TTG says:

      Jovan P,

      How about to liberate more Ukrainians from the atrocity committing Russians.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        Stop stealing your lines from Bill Mauldin’s “Upfront,” TTG. We are not all little gen-Xers and Zoomers here.

        https://www.cowanauctions.com/lot/bill-mauldin-cartoon-1944-4038605

        • TTG says:

          F&L,

          I should have called them atrocity committing skunks. BTW, I have a whole large format book of Willie and Joe cartoons. I love them.

          • Fourth and Long says:

            One of my favorite books of childhood. We had an old copy of Upfront in the fifties. The text was fantastic too.

          • TTG says:

            F&L,

            Mine is “Bill Mauldin’s Army” covering cartoons from pre-war training through VE day. Not just funny, but also very informative.

          • Fourth and Long says:

            TTG,
            You’re not kidding. The prewar period. One of the first books I ever read was Steinbeck’s Bombs Away. From the promo blurb on Amazon, below. (I see Google has graciously provided a free glimpse of excerpts available on simple search). I remember vividly my cognitive dissonance on encountering this great writer’s work that seemed to celebrate such a terrifying endeavor. It was on the family room bookshelf of my evil Ex US Air Force Four Engine Bomber Navigator daddy along with Conquest of Everest, K2: Savage Mountain, a book about an attempt on Anna Purna, and my favorite, a hardcover entitled Art Appreciation whose author I can’t remember at the moment.

            —————-
            On the heels of the enormous success of his masterwork The Grapes of Wrath and at the height of the American war effort John Steinbeck, one of the most prolific and influential literary figures of his generation, wrote Bombs Away, a nonfiction account of his experiences with U.S. Army Air Force bomber crews during World War II. Now, for the first time since its original publication in 1942, Penguin Classics presents this exclusive edition of Steinbeck’s introduction to the then-nascent U.S. Army Air Force and its bomber crew–the essential core unit behind American air power that Steinbeck described as “the greatest team in the world.”

    • Billy Roche says:

      What’s the point? Perhaps it is something the Russian mind will never, just can’t, understand. Freedom.

    • blue peacock says:

      Jovan,

      The Ukrainians have and will continue to sacrifice to liberate their territory from Putin’s occupation. Note that despite the asymmetry in terms of long-range missiles and the attacks by Russia on their cities and infrastructure, the Ukranians seem determined to remain independent.

      Putin is not winning hearts & minds in Ukraine. In fact he is stuck in a quagmire that is costing him dearly both in treasure & blood. He can’t extricate without worrying about falling out of a window himself.

      • English Outsider says:

        “The Ukrainians have and will continue to sacrifice to liberate their territory from Putin’s occupation.”

        Trouble is, Blue Peacock, there are two Ukraines. Mixed up as well, to varying degrees. The ultra-nationalists are fighting to recover the territory of the Donbass but would like to get rid of most of the people living there. The people living there have other ideas.

        That’s why until recently, and apart from the very first few days of the SMO, the LDNR forces took the brunt of the fighting. One of the odd features of the Western reporting of this war is that the LDNR forces have been pretty well airbrushed out of the picture. But they’ve been fighting like wild cats. You would too, if you were facing ultra-nationalists who regarded you as Untermenschen and who advertised on Ukrainian media their intention of getting rid of you.

        So this is what the academics call an “internationalised civil war”, though now pretty well a straight proxy war for us. We’re on the side of the ultra-nationalists. Russia on the side of those fighting them.

        Kiev’s only got two chances of winning and only ever had. The first is if the Russian government collapses. That’s what we hoped the sanctions war would do but it hasn’t worked.

        The second is if the Americans had come in and occupied ground. The Russians and the Americans won’t fight each other – obvious reasons – so had the Americans put troops in earlier the Russians would have left them alone. But the Americans didn’t, and President Biden ruled out doing that at the start of the SMO. He can’t put them in now, not overtly. Yavoriv set the rules on that.

        So the Kiev regime is done for. It’s just a question of how and when.

        Most are expecting a straight military defeat. That’s the probable outcome but bear in mind that the Kiev regime is a lot shakier than we’re told. So there’s an outside chance that it will fall and peace will come about that way. A very outside chance say most, but don’t rule it out completely.

        • TTG says:

          EO,

          The fate of the LNR/DNR forces was never left out of any of the sources I’ve been reading. Oddly enough, they’re now being augmented by large numbers of the ill trained, ill equipped Russian mobiks. Those mobiks are still being used as cannon fodder by LNR/DNR leadership.

          • English Outsider says:

            Well, I saw it at the start of the SMO much as I see it now, TTG. The sanctions war was the really big deal and it wasn’t going to work. Nor did it.

            The military side was always something of a side issue. On that, the Russians could always bring more force to bear than we could. It was just a question of how much force we’d make them use.

            Even if our side were to cut the land bridge, or even get into Crimea, it wouldn’t make much difference. The Russians would just move up another gear. As Obama said, they have “escalatory dominance”.

            Some American neocons have said quite explicitly that they’re in it to kill Russians. They do indeed intend to “fight to the last Ukrainian”. The Russians are fully aware of what’s at stake and will, as I heard one Russian woman reported recently, “eat grass, if they have to” to repel whatever the combined West can throw at them.

            For the Russians, many see it as a question of the survival of their country. I get the impression that for most ordinary Americans it’s just another war a long way away.

            Washington’s all in, or at least the White House and the neocons are, but not the American people as a whole. So this war can only go one way.

            I’m not being accurate when I say all this was obvious at the start. Not at the very start, not for me. I don’t know if you foresaw the SMO but I certainly didn’t!

            I had been expecting some sort of fudge to be arrived at, on the lines of a start to Minsk 2. I wrote in to the Colonel’s site, to Patrick Armstrong, and said as much. He somewhat grudgingly agreed.

            That’s what many in Germany thought too. I recollect one German writing in to Dr North’s site in England and saying it would all blow over. Scholz would delay NS2 for a while just to keep the Americans happy and would bring it on stream mid 2022. All my German friends were similarly relaxed. Certainly none were expecting any fireworks.

            They got ’em though. And a severe economic blow to boot. That’s why I focus on what Scholz was up to. The Quiet Man of German politics has been up to a lot more than he let his electorate know about. I see Scholz, Merz, Habeck and Baerbock much more as central figures than they are viewed in the States.

            Am I being too Eurocentric? Dunno. Waiting to see if Scholz can explain why he’s acting so oddly on the pipeline sabotage. And that’s still a puzzle. It he’d agreed that sabotage in advance then he should not have. If he hadn’t, then why is he not doing what a leader ought to do and moving Heaven and earth to find out who did it?

            Not something that can be swept under the carpet, though I suppose you never know in Germany. As said before, this is not the Germany I thought I knew. With their gut Russophobia, which beats anything seen in the States by a very long way, and with their docile acceptance of whatever their politicians get up to, this is just beginning to be more like the Germany of the ’30’s one reads about than anything I ever saw.

          • TTG says:

            EO,

            The sanctions war really was the big deal back then. The threat of massive sanctions was meant to persuade Putin not to launch his invasion. Most in the West didn’t give Ukraine much of a chance if it came to a shooting war. The sanctions didn’t work as a deterrent and weren’t near as devastating to Russia as the West hoped. But the shooting war devastated Russia’s aura of invincibility, exposed it as a kleptocracy, united all of Ukraine and even united NATO. Both the shooting war and the sanctions have drastically rearranged the world economic order. The order is still there, but it is far different from what it once was. The good thing for Russia is that the extent of the kleptocracy was exposed and will most likely be dealt with. For Germany, it’s been the biggest change since Willy Brandt began his Ostpolitik.

          • Jake says:

            TTG, you are living in another dimension. Which is not an accusation. But sanctioning Russia has not been a recent invention. Wrecking free trade is what the ‘Collective West’ does as a hobby, before sending in the military to finish a weakened opponent off, and feed the people in the country to the dogs. Look over your shoulder to see what we did to Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, where we actively assisted Al Qaida and ISIS, or whatever they called themselves, to wreck havoc. While telling the hapless taxpayer that they were freeing the people.

            You are seeing a ‘liberated’ Ukraine. And a ‘United’ NATO. I see no such thing. I see a Ukraine which was struggling because of enormous corruption and legendary ethnic strife, which was ‘Regime Changed’ by the ‘Collective West’ to use the country and the people as bait in a quest to erase Russia from the map, cutting it up, and rule over the remains through divide and conquer, using unelected ‘bodies’ like the EU, NATO, the WEF to set ‘standards’ for obedience.

            As we speak, there are massive demonstrations and even riots and violent clashes in many European countries. The source of these conflicts are formally different from one country to the other, and apparently not related to this war at all. But at the fundamental level it is all very much connected, with people having this overwhelming sense that they are ‘being ordered around’, and that those in power after elections bow to their overlords, forgetting the promises they made to the electorate.

            In the US, and in the UK this weird ‘Uniparty’ system has been around for some time. But this ‘Unipolar’ world, built on violence and intrigue, and enormous moral and material corruption, has reached the end of the line. I really have a hard time to understand why someone would give his or her life to defend it, and call it ‘freedom’.

          • TTG says:

            Jake,

            Never claimed that sanctions were a recent invention. The “Collective West” has been deliberately shaping world economic order since the Age of Discovery and even before that. In almost all cases it was for the sake of enforced trade. The Opium Wars were a prime example. Long before that Japan sought to protect herself through the economic sanctions of sakoku. The first sanction war I remember was the OPEC oil embargo of the 1970s. Actually, I’m more inclined to the ideas associated with the “buy American” movement and the development of locally autonomous economies than the idea of worldwide free trade. Worldwide free trade is often just another term for colonialism or the New World Order. Although I’m sure a case can also be made that a sanctions regime could be another form of colonialism.

            Do you consider the Solidarność and Sąjūdis movements to be nothing more than regime change efforts initiated by the collective West? In spite of our five billion dollars over ten years, Ukraine was not much different. From 1991 on, it was clear that a majority of Ukrainians preferred closer ties with the EU. This did not mean a rejection of ties with Russia. The Orange Revolution was a continuation of that turn to the West, but still Russia was not rejected. They were almost there when Yanukovych and Putin tried to suddenly “regime change” Ukraine into an exclusive union with Moscow. The Euromaidan was the reaction to that attempted regime change. Even at that point, Russia was not fully rejected. Only Russia’s 1915 invasion of Crimea and the Donbas finally turned a solid majority of Ukrainians against Russia. Last year’s invasion just solidified that rejection. How’s that for another dimensional view?

        • Billy Roche says:

          E.O someone said “its all in the eye of the beholder”. No matter how much you take Putin’s part, there is no SMO. That is an obvious euphemism for an invasion. That is what Russia has done. As for untermenschen, that is how Putin (and maybe Russians in gen’l?) has regarded Ukrainians. Do you deny the 120 year history of Ukrainian efforts towards freedom? They are no one’s untermenschen. Ask them about that. But I readily concede there are two Ukraines separated by language, ethnicity, and politics. That’s why, sit down now, I agreed w/you in March of 2022 that Ukraine’s best interest w/b served by giving up Crimea and the Donbass, taking their liberty, and calling it a day. But that would never satisfy “ultra nationalist” Russians. Their interest has been complete domination of Ukraine since 1914. Czar Vlad is resurrecting the past on the bodies of Russians and Ukrainians. Russians don’t need to dominate Ukraine to be a contributor to a modern world. Or do they?
          A quick point, don’t expect American troops to occupy and hold Ukrainian land. Don’t expect the Russian gov’t to collapse, and don’t expect Ukrainians to give up as easily as you suggest. The fat lady hasn’t even seen the music yet.

          • English Outsider says:

            Bill – I use the tern SMO to differentiate between what’s happening now and the war that was fought before. But yes, it was certainly an invasion too. Or an Article 51 intervention, if one wishes to be legalistic.

            I’m not a pacifist and I do understand that the Poles and the Balts, and my own country too, need and have a right to adequate security arrangements.

            As this war is demonstrating, we haven’t got them right now. As Kujat says, if the Russians were so minded they could walk in tomorrow – and nothing much there to stop them except the fact they don’t want to.

            So we all need an adequate defence. But believe me, helping out a bunch of ultra-nationalists who want to slaughter the Russians living in the Donbass isn’t the way to get one.

            yse the term

        • Billy Roche says:

          The invasion of Ukraine is an atrocity by “ultra nationalist” Russians who refuse Ukrainian freedom. There is no explanation for it b/y pure colonial aggression and disrespect for human life. You have been predicting Ukrainian defeat for over a year. Maybe you will prove right, but the fighting is not done. Ukrainians have been regarded as “untermenschen” by Russians for over 100 years. Even if crushed by pure Russian power do you think they will meekly line up to kiss Russian “dupa”. Putin will guarantee Russia another 100 years of hate from Ukraine. Hatred, partisan warfare, and the need for an occupying army. The price of Russian Empire.

        • blue peacock says:

          “So the Kiev regime is done for. It’s just a question of how and when.”

          That’s what all of you have been predicting since Putin was massing his troops before the invasion. Many said Biden was issuing a false alarm and that Putin was just doing military exercises. But on this matter Biden and the US intelligence agencies were correct. Putin did invade. Now he’s been there over a year and not anywhere near achieving his objectives through military action.

          “Most are expecting a straight military defeat.”

          The “Most” have been predicting that for over a year. And that hasn’t happened yet. When do we call those predictions for what they really are?

          “…the Kiev regime is a lot shakier than we’re told.”

          Okiedokie! So what is the time frame for the collapse of the Kiev “regime”?

          • English Outsider says:

            Blue Peacock – I don’t know. I doubt even those who are able to keep a close eye on it all know. There’s very little coming out of Ukraine at present to show how the average Ukrainian feels about this war.

            The videos are pretty useless for that. If in the Russian sector they say one thing. If in the Ukrainian, another. Means little.

            But there’s very much a last days in the bunker feel about what few bits and pieces do come out of Kiev. So I’m just saying that, although all the experts are focusing on the likely military outcome, we should not leave out of the reckoning entirely the Ukrainians themselves deciding to get shot of the Kiev regime however unlikely that seems at present.

    • blue peacock says:

      Hundreds of thousands of Russians are dead. What’s the point of sacrificing thousands more?

      If Putin had an iota of courage he would withdraw his soldiers from the meat-grinder and take the heat for his colossal strategic blunder.

    • PeterHug says:

      That’s a choice that Ukraine must make, not us. Our choice is to decide whether to support them or not. (Make no mistake, they will continue even without any of our support.)

    • Billy Roche says:

      Jovan; Your “whats the point” comment on Ukrainian resistance still troubles me. Then I happened on TTG’s reference to Frank Capra’s WW II video on “Why We Fight”. If you don’t understand why Ukrainians are fighting look at that old video. They fight for freedom. They fight NOT to be some other nation’s dog. They have been fighting for their freedom for over 100 years. They fight so their children will be free. In their entire history have Russians ever had that emotion. I think not. They are a patriotic people who will die for “Mother Russia”. They’ve proven this. But that’s not being free. I’ll leave it at that.

  3. Leith says:

    Putin has a KGB vision of victory. He believes it can come from dezinformatsiya & outright lies; massacre, torture, fear, kidnapping, seduction & betrayal; plus spies, hackers & assassins. His opponents in Ukraine put their faith in strategy, valor, justice and allies.

    Who will prevail? That’s up to history. But I’m betting that the Kremlin will abandon much if not all of their illegally occupied Ukrainian real estate. Not only because of Putin’s KGB-ish approach to strategy – but also due to the massive inefficiency, corruption, greed and stupidity in his defense industry.

    Two interesting articles hi-light the lack of a sane strategy in Russia’s space program. They have almost 50 military satellites in orbit. Yet tiny Ukraine using imagery from Maxar, Planet Labs & ICEYE; and comms from Starlink are easily outdistancing Russia’s military in providing target info for a kinetic response.

    Here is one of those articles from Pavel Luzin, an analyst for RiddleRussia’s online journal and a visiting scholar at US thinktanks.
    https://ridl.io/satellites-of-stagnation/

    The other is from Chris Flaherty, an Australian now in London, who analyzes intel, terrorism, and space.
    https://issuu.com/apsm/docs/australia_in_space_magazine_issue_4_digital/s/17159397

    For those interested more in aircraft rather than spacecraft, Luzin also wrote on Russian Air Force (VKS) last October. He asks the question – has Russian air power vanished or was it overstated to begin with?
    https://jamestown.org/program/russian-air-power-vanished-or-overstated-to-begin-with/

    • Fred says:

      Leith,

      “Yet tiny Ukraine using imagery…”
      From the USA and the rest of NATO in real time as reported here more than once.

      • Leith says:

        Fred –

        Neither the US nor NATO is passing IMINT targeting info inside Russia’s borders. And maybe not in Crimea either. Any SIGINT they are passing on is too inaccurate for precise targeting. I would expect they are mainly passing early warning info on potential VKS airstrikes, SRBM & cruise missile launches. If you have sources that show the US is passing out un-sanitized extremely high definition imagery to Ukraine in real-time for use in targeting, you should post a link.

        Furthermore, Ukraine is a heck of a lot faster with getting hi-definition data from the commercial birds (at least twice daily from each of three different firms) than they can get from the US. Plus commercial imaging technology provides damn good resolution – Maxar res is at 0.3 meters, ICEYE res is at 1.0 meter, Planet Labs res is anywhere from 0.9 meters or higher depending on the bird. ICEYE has been particularly useful as its sensor sees thru clouds and smoke, Maxar has something similar.

        • Fred says:

          Leith,

          How on earth do you know the leve of detail of information being passed to the Ukrainians?

  4. drifter says:

    According to NPR, people working with Ukrainian conscripts are saying they get 3-5 days training, then are deployed on the line.
    https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1164935413/russia-ukraine-war-foreign-veterans-train-ukrainian-soldiers

    • Billy Roche says:

      NPR is paid for by the American taxpayer so I’m certain they have America’s interest in their unbiased reporting. I accept every and anything that NPR says.

      • TTG says:

        Billy Roche,

        NPR gets no government funding. PBS does get about 15% of its funding from the federal government while the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) is fully government funded. The CPB produces no programming. It largely funds local radio and TV stations.

        • Billy Roche says:

          Thanks for clearing that up. If CPB produces no programs why does the govt fund it.

          • TTG says:

            Billy Roche,

            The CPB provides a lot of the funding for local public radio and TV stations who, in turn, produce a lot of the content like “This old House” and a host of regional and local “educational” programming.

          • Leith says:

            Did they do Click & Clack? That was a great show.

          • TTG says:

            Leith,

            It began as a local program on WBUR-FM, an NPR station in Boston obviously. It was developed as an NPR program from there.

    • Leith says:

      Drifter – Not sure I’m reading that NPR story correctly – three days total training or three days weapons training on the rifle range?

      But then even the 17 days training claimed by Ukro Lieutenant Colonel Andrusenko of the State Border Guard Service is not enough.

      On the other hand that Kiwi lady medic is giving them better first aid training that I ever got before heading to Nam.

  5. Gordon Reed says:

    Putin views the events that have been ongoing for years with regard to Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia and probably won’t stop regardless of the carnage that ensues, if he is being defeated on the battlefield hopefully he quits without starting something worse

  6. cobo says:

    The anti-American/NATO/Western Civilization fears. The constant references to nuclear, the attempted usurpation of the stage by Xi and his bitch, all of it. The enemies of Western Civilization, internal and external, will be greeted with the open arms of wrath. The dynamics of this aren’t just beginning, it hasn’t even yet begun.

  7. Fred says:

    TTG,

    “Ukraine is organizing her newly formed and equipped brigades into three corps. Each of these corps headquarters has planning and operational staffs and control logistical and combat support forces that augment the capabilities of the new brigades.”

    Staffed with what? If memory serves Leith put up a comment about the training of Ukrainians here that graduated 1,000 men per week. In a year that’s 52,000; however it hasn’t gone on for a year and there’s no indication that all of those to graduate training were held back to form units to create those brigades, much less three corps. Which combat units get stripped of officers and NCOs to lead these units?Just what number of AFVs, artillery and all the rest are getting delivered to equip three brigades, much less than three corps?

    BTW someone should inform the retired Aussie general that this ‘offensive’ by the Russians has been going on for some time, and tht Orthodox Easter is a week after the Roman Catholics observe Easter. Somoen might also take the trouble to inform him of all the Orthodox churches being closed by the Ukrainian government.

    • TTG says:

      Fred,

      I also wondered where these new brigades and corps headquarters were getting trained officers and NCOs. I bet a lot of them come out the thousands of wounded veterans. The Ukrainian military medical system is quite effective and many of those wounded, experienced leaders are returned to duty. There was a story a short while ago about one battalion that has 500 casualties in the past year. One hundred were killed, but 400 were wounded and did not return to the unit. I’m sure many of them recuperated and were able to return to duty, even if they weren’t all fit for front line infantry duty.

      I thought the “Easter offensive” was a typo or editing error and that it was supposed to be eastern offensive, but I decided not to edit it myself since that’s what was printed. Plus, Kyiv only shut down Russian Orthodox churches, and not all of them. They did not shut down Ukrainian Orthodox churches.

      • JamesT says:

        TTG

        Didn’t the Ukrainian government create the “Ukrainian Orthodox church” out of whole cloth a couple of years ago. Kind of like if Justin Trudeau here in Canada created his own catholic church and then 3 years later outlawed the real Catholic church?

        • TTG says:

          JamesT,

          The Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been in existence since the 10th century. The 2018 schism with Moscow was just the latest in a long line of schisms. The church received its current autocephaly from Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople in 2019. I remember several Ukrainian Orthodox Churches in Connecticut when I was growing up. A good friend from high school went to one.

          • Billy Roche says:

            My maternal grandmother was a member of the Ukrainian Uniate Church. My mother called it that “crazy church”, neither Catholic nor Orthodox. It was found in southern Poland (Catholic) and in Austrian controlled Galizia, more than eastern Ukraine (Eastern Orthodox). One would need a Masters in Eastern European politics and religion from the 11th century on to understand how this all happened. Regardless of one’s religious calling, the Russian invasion is about suppressing all Ukrainian freedom. That is the over arching issue today as it has been for the past 100 years.

          • TTG says:

            Billy Roche,

            The Ukrainian Uniate Church is considered a Catholic Church which looks to the pope in Rome as its spiritual leader. Roman Catholics are allowed to attend mass and receive communion in a Ukrainian or Greek Uniate Church. I do have a masters in Eastern European studies, but it was still centered on Moscow’s domination of Eastern Europe at the time since this was in a polysci centered school rather than a history centered school.

          • JamesT says:

            TTG

            If a few years from now a future Ukrainian government decided to shut all the synagogues to fight “foreign interference” let’s just remember how it all got started. Because after all – those Jews in Ukraine will still be free to worship their g*d they will just have to do it in a Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

          • TTG says:

            JamesT,

            You expect that to happen in a country that elected a Russian speaking Jew as their president? It’ll happen in Florida before it happens in Ukraine. And it won’t happen in Florida, either.

    • Leith says:

      Fred –

      If somehow I mistakenly led you to believe that 1,000 per week was the highest king tide of Ukrainian troop training, that was not my intent. Lo lamento mucho.

      PS – Putin’s occupation troops have destroyed, or damaged hundreds of Ukrainian Orthodox Churches – or converted them to Russian Orthodox in line with Patriarch Kirill in Moscow, who is perhaps the biggest supporter of the war. Ukrainian priests have been beaten or murdered.

      And in Constantinople, Bartholomew I the spiritual leader of Eastern Orthodox Christians worldwide, says that Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church shares the blame for war crimes against Ukraine.

      Yes, Ukrainian officials have cracked down on subversive efforts and spying by some Putin loving priests who are subservient to the Kremlin. Plus Ukraine has expelled or is about to expel Russian Orthodox monks from the Kyiv Monastery of the Caves.

      War and religion should never combine IMHO. Negative juju. It ain’t anything like the Christian gospel I was taught.

      • Fred says:

        Leith,

        You were only providing something the US army had provided, so no problemo. Where are they getting the Officers and NCO to staff three corps?

        Bartholomew I took over when? Constantinople? Where’s that, since the Ottomans took over the last city of that name in 1453? (Maybe Bartholomew is going to make it Christian again?)
        Oh, yes, 2019. Who was it before and why the change?
        https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/world/europe/orthodox-church-ukraine-russia.html

        Russia bad! Before the war too. Shocking that the spiritual leadership of the Orthodox Church is an issue for the US. Well, not so shocking, actually. I’m sure the NED or one of our other three letter agencies had nothing to do with influencing events in Istanbul leading to a change in leadership of the Eastern Orthodox Church.

        “War and religion should never combine…”
        The Hundred Years war comes to mind, that one that happened after Luther nailed his 95 theses to the door of a church in Wittenberg. Expelling monks from a monastery hardly appears a European value, oh crap it fits right in with the prior wars of religion. But I’m sure the Orthodox President of oh crap he’s not that either. But ‘Putin loving priests’ subservient to the Kremlin. They certainly were accursed. When are the trials, or is this just preventative detention?

        • Leith says:

          Fred –

          The eviction from the monastery has not happened yet. But the faithful of Kyiv are gathering to worship there, so perhaps soon:
          https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukrainian-orthodox-worshippers-gather-in-idUSKBN2VV0Q1
          Let us hope there are no injuries during the expulsion. But I would bet dollars to donuts that the Kremlin or maybe Kirill has given them orders to put up a bloody resistance and record it on video. That would be exactly what Putin needs to solidify support for his war by the Russian people.

          As for whether Putin’s priests were detained, or put on trial, or simply thrown out of the country you are asking the wrong guy. Did it happen? I have no clue as I thought they were shown the door and deported. Perhaps one of the local Putinophiliacs have news from him and will put a bug in your ear.

          Bartholemew? He was elected 32 years ago by a synod of 12 other patriarchs. His predecessor, Demetrios I, died of heart failure when he was 77. You can blame Ronnie Raygun for the NED, but I doubt they meddled in Eastern Orthodox theological politics back then.

          Officers and NCOs of the three new army corps? They already have enough within the existing 80 to 100 odd brigades, which will make up the bulk of the new corps. So my WAG is they will only need a smallish number. Just enough to staff the corps HQs and perhaps intermediate units. And they won’t supersize the corps HQ staff like the US Army & USMC have done. I would expect they will streamline. Perhaps Generals Sirskyi or Zalushnyi will post some OOB sometime in the far future.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            Which excutive order of Reagan’s created that? I wonder why congress can’t seem to get around to defunding it, especially when the Democrats controlled the House. They hated that guy.

            You left out the Constantinople part this time. Putin’s priests? Thats wonderful agitprop. Did he send them into Ukraine to begin with?

            So the Ukrainians are going to cul 80 brigades of some number of their NCOs and officers to create enough untis to field three brigades. Good luck to them. On to Moscow! or Sevastopol. Or Mariapul or whereever.

            On a related force disposition note it looks like Vlad is getting the Wagner group re-deployed to Africa. I wonder what mischief they’ll manage there.

          • Leith says:

            Fred –

            NSDD-77 created the NED. The D’s attempted to defund it in 93. It didn’t happen.

            Sorry I offended you by writing Constantinople instead of Istanbul. It is the term used in Bartholemew’s title, i.e. the “Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople”. It was the same for his predecessor and for all others going back over a thousand years. The title did not change under Turkish rule. Didn’t realize you were such a fan of the Ottomans.

            Perhaps I was too quick in using the label of Putin’s priests. Some have been in Ukraine for decades. But others were sent in 2014 or soon afterwards. Most are disciples and supporters of the Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill I, who has been described as a “2nd rate KGB agent” by Bulgaria.

            You say: “…going to cul 80 brigades of some number of their NCOs and officers …”. No. Some of those brigades will be part of the three new corps. In toto. They will not be stripped of leadership positions. Just a few to staff the corps headquarter command posts.

            Wagner Group is already in Africa – Sudan, Central African Republic, Madagascar, Libya, Mozambique, Mali.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            Erdogan might be insulted but I found it humorous. The Congress made only one attempt to de-fund the NED in 40 years? My my.

            So the leadership of the new brigades come from where?

          • Leith says:

            Fred –

            I’ve only heard of three new Ukrainian brigades. Do you know of more? One of the new ones I’m aware of is the 47th already in existence. Grown from a battalion back in April 2022 and expanded to brigade status starting in October. The other two new brigades may be forming or already formed as we speak. One reportedly a mechanized brigade accompanied by Challenger tanks (14 is not enough in my view). The other may turn out to be a full tank brigade using the Leopard.

            The leadership of the 47th is already in place. For the other two brigades if the officers and at least the senior NCOs are not in already in cadre status they will be soon. Combat savvy privates can make damned good NCOs. Sometimes they even get battlefield commissions. Veteran NCOs make good Mustang officers also. Not every good officer has graduated from a military academy. It’s not cannibalization of existing units, the holes in the ranks will be filled by others stepping up.

          • TTG says:

            Leith,

            In addition to regular Ukrainian Army units, the Interior Ministry is raising eight brigades of infantry or mech infantry. Supposedly 28,000 have volunteered for the Offensive Guard. They made a point of recruiting veterans and younger volunteers to get a mix of experience and youth.

          • Leith says:

            TTG –

            Thanks for that info. Googling it, I note that many or most of those eight new brigades are not being built from a scratch or zero basis. It appears that all eight are being built up from existing regiments or large-sized units:
            https://militaryland.net/news/ukraine-creates-offensive-guard-brigades/
            So maybe not a huge number of new NCOs and officers will be needed.

            Regarding my previous answer to Fred. That full tank brigade that is being formed may have some initial trouble filling leadership roles. But a bigger question is how soon can they get enough Leopard tanks (90 to 100 or so) needed for brigade sized ops? Or will they use only a single battalion of Leopards and fill the rest with upgraded T-72s they got from the Czechs and Poles?

  8. jim ticehurst.. says:

    The TU-35 has arrived Also.. Biden Upgraded The Tanks He will Send…
    Bridge Builders…WSJ says Russia will Be Broke in a Year,,,All The
    Frogs are in The Pot…And There is Enough Gas Left to Boil Them..

    Mental Illness…is the Product of the Day…Paranoia…in little Blue Pills
    JT

  9. Babeltuap says:

    The goal was never to occupy all of Ukraine.. Many fail to understand that the most valuable land is in the east. There is no value in western Ukraine other than creating a missile buffer. Putin said this many moons ago…meh. It is tough fighting right now, no doubt about it but one side is absolutely inching forward. One is not and they are running out of bodies. Gotta have the bodies. Russia does have the bodies. Where is Ukraine getting bodies from? UN troops will not work. The US should just implement the draft right now. Get it over with and send 400K US drafted Soldiers. Many will die but they will prevail. It must be done. If any of you have children I am sorry but they have to be drafted and sacrifice for the greater good.

    • TTG says:

      Babeltuap,

      True, the original goal was to knock out the government in Kyiv and let the newly Russian installed government take care of all of Ukraine. The Russians failed. Since last summer, the Russians have lost a lot more territory than the Ukrainians. Both sides still have plenty of men to wage war. You forget what the USSR lost in WWII. Both Ukraine and Russia lost millions and kept fighting to victory.

    • Billy Roche says:

      Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was always about conquering the entire country and subordinating Ukrainians. Given the chance Russia would have done that to the Stones, Lits, and Lats and still might. This is not to be candy coated. SMO euphemisms are intended to obscure naked colonial conquest. The invasion is an attempt to restore the Russian Empire lost in 1917. Will Russian success in defeating Ukraine result in a secure Moldova? Will Slovaks be threatened? Can the Finns feel safe from Russian hegemony? It’s best to put the truth right on the table. Denying Russian intentions doesn’t help; unless you’re an ostrich.

    • cobo says:

      Babeltuap

      Thank you again for opening an opportunity for me to discuss universal conscription. My thoughts have nothing to do with intervening in Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians are not starved of support by the fake right, they can handle the Russian invader just fine. I have several main reasons for promoting universal conscription: 1. to be the tool to reunify a nation being split against itself by malevolent forces 2. to rebuild our educational and industrial base that has been squandered by oligarchs with little patriotic virtue 3. to flesh out our civil and military needs 4. …

      • Billy Roche says:

        I have strange political proclivities. When I/m not being a conservative I am a libertarian. When it comes to the draft my conservative instincts kick-in. We need it! Nixon campaigned in ’68 on ending it and true to his word he signed off on it in ’70. IMHO most young people have little sense of patriotism and neither knowledge of nor respect for other young people in the country. god do we need it.

  10. Jake says:

    The ‘Western’, unipolar narrative is nowhere near the multipolar narrative outside the ‘Western’ control. It is common in our ‘Western’ world to assume that the truth has to be somewhere in the middle. This is a product of ‘consensus thinking’, which replaced the active search for what is true, and what is not. As a result the wrapping paper is receiving way too much attention.

    There will be a Ukrainian ’Spring Offensive’ for sure, since that is what the ‘Collective West’ ordered. They want to see some ‘bang’ for their money. My own position never changed from before this military conflict started, when I predicted in January of last year that if the Russians felt that had no other choice but to enforce this ‘Minsk Accord’, they would not conquer all of Ukraine, ever. In fact, at the early stages of the ‘SMO’ they were still ready to accept the implementation of said ‘Minsk Accords’, and leave Ukrainian ‘whole’, minus Crimea, if the country would be ‘federalized’, according to the provisions of these ‘Accords’. But if they were pressed, they would seal off Ukraine by taking the East and South, either as independent states under their protection, or as part of the Russian Federation.

    Obviously this would leave Ukraine as a NATO launchpad for assaults on the territory released from Team Nuland’s control, and possibly even Russia itself. Hence the need to prepare for a ‘War of Attrition’, while NATO has set its sights on controlling Russia, as Mr. Ryan explains. I’m not informed about the Russian strategy, but even Western sources are telling me that the Russians are actually very successful, killing far more Ukrainians than they are losing soldiers on their own side, using far superior artillery and, increasingly, bombers since the air defense capability of Ukraine has been highly degraded in recent months.

    From a military perspective it is interesting to ‘read’ developments on the battlefield, and predict success or failure for Ukraine in the upcoming, mandatory ‘Spring Offensive’, but from my perspective it is sadistic abuse, based on a long-shot last ditch possibility that some storming operation may succeed to reach the coastline of the Sea of Azov, and break Russian morale. Likely supplemented by drone swarms targeting Crimea, and terrorists acting on Russian soil, with the odd converted reconnaissance drone launched at targets deep inside Russia, everything as directed by NATO. Whether Russia will sit still and limit itself to ‘Attrition’ from a defensive position, or launch their own offensive in areas neglected by NATO out of necessity, since they are out of everything already, we’ll have to wait and see.

    There is always the odd chance that NATO will strike ‘gold’, but after this long list of lost wars, ‘liberating’ people in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and elsewhere, this very much comes across as an addiction to gambling in high stakes games, betting on luck instead of strategy. Ryan’s commentary is breathing that angle where he is pushing for ‘motivation’ as the key to victory. Just one more throw of the dice!

    • TTG says:

      If Moscow truly believed in the Minsk Accords, she would not have declared the DNR and LNR first to be independent states and then mere oblasts of Russia. The Accords were just the means to create another frozen conflict on the path to eventually reasserting control over Kyiv. And your reading of the current military situation is absolutely delusional.

      • Fred says:

        TTG,

        Angela Merkle has been quoted as saying Germany (the West) viewed the Minsk Accords only as a mechanism to gain time to arm, train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces. Such actions would not have occurred had all parties been honest participants.

        • TTG says:

          Fred,

          True, if all parties had been honest participants, things could have been different in the Donbas. But as I told Peter Williams, using that time to arm, train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces was a wise move given last year’s Russian invasion.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            Not getting involved from 1991 onwards would have worked even better.

          • jld says:

            @TTG
            “using that time to arm, train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces was a wise move given last year’s Russian invasion.”

            You presume that “Russian invasion” would have happened no matter what.
            May be not so wise, unfortunately nobody can ascertain the counterfactual, no Azov crazies no invasion.

      • Peter Williams says:

        Get real! It was eight years of non-compliance by the Ukraine with the Minsk Accords before Russia acted. Germany, France and the Ukraine have all stated that the Accords were a ruse to arm, train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces.

        • TTG says:

          Peter Williams,

          It was eight years of non-compliance by Russia and the DNR/LNR as well. It’s a good thing the Ukrainians used that time to arm, train and equip given the Russian invasion. In the year leading up to the invasion, only around two dozen civilians lost their lives on both sides of the line of contact and half of those were due to unexploded ordnance. But the DNR/LNR turned into a Stalinesque hell hole in those eight years, a far cry from the high minded breakaway republics of eight years prior.

        • Billy Roche says:

          Peter; Ukraine’s fate was sealed in the summer of ’91 when Ukrainians had the utter courage and audacity to declare themselves a free and sovereign people. Russia’s invasion was just ticking away, held in abeyance as long as Ukrainians d/n get to uppity.

          • Peter Williams says:

            TTG said:
            Peter Williams,

            See Leith’s answer to Babeltuap’s posting of the same video.

            Yet somehow I can’t find that posting. Strange?

            As too your allusions, Ukrainians were safe until they decided to exterminate non-Ukrainians. They exterminated Poles and Jews in WWII, now they exterminate all others. I grew up with Ukrainians in Australia. They had a pathological hatred of Russians, Poles and Jews. Didn’t go down to well with Australians, we hated all the foreigners, except when they thought that ten to one was OK. The Ukrainians soon learnt what was a fair fight, and they were too cowardly to take part.

        • Billy Roche says:

          Peter Williams; there is no longer a country called “the Ukraine”. Ukraine has been a sovereign republic since the summer of ’92. I know that’s only 4 years after Australia openly declared her own independence from Britain so I would think Australians would welcome Ukraine to the family of new nations. God knows Ukraine tried. She’s fought, Russian Czars, Commissars, endured millions dead by forced starvation, Nazi’s, more commies, and now oligarchs for the past 100 years. Still she fights, far longer than the paltry 8 years since Minsk. Russia was content to let Ukraine “flop along” as another make believe ex Russian colony between ’92 and 2/24/22 as long as she d/n get too serious about being free. Sometimes untermensch get that way though and Putin had to invade, kill, destroy, rape, and break Ukrainians to show them Russia was their boss. Men must have such respect for Russian leaders; what men! Nevertheless, 100’s of Ukrainians die every week fighting for freedom; what men.

          • Peter Williams says:

            Australia was effectively an independent country with the passing of the Statute of Westminster 1931, adopted as the Statute of Westminster Adoption Act 1942 (backdated to 3 September 1939). The Australia Act 1986 (passed by both the Australian and UK Parliaments) tidied up areas concerning concerning Australian States and appeals to the Privy Council from State Supreme Courts. All States passed enabling legislation with regards to the Australia Act 1986.

            As for the Ukraine, English calls many countries in that manner, the Netherlands, The Commonwealth of Australia, The United States of America etc.

  11. Stefan says:

    US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has described Bahkmut as a slaughter fest for the Russians yet I am constantly hearing that Bahkmut is not going well for the Russians. Does he know something we dont? Or just PR to try and garner more support for Ukraine?

    • TTG says:

      Stefan,

      Milley’s quote:

      “The Ukrainians are doing a very effective area defense that is proven to be very costly to the Russians. For about the last 20, 21 days, the Russians have not made any progress whatsoever in and around Bahkmut,” he said. “So it’s a slaughter-fest for the Russians. They’re getting hammered in the vicinity of Bahkmut and the Ukrainians have fought very, very well.”

      Slaughter-fest for the Russians means they’re dying in large numbers at the hands of the Ukrainian defenders.

      • Jake says:

        The only problem is, that Milley is hardly a reliable source. Even less if you accept that NATO has been in the driver’s seat from the very start, using the military conflict as a pretext for launching ‘Sanctions from Hell’, and a means to ‘Bleed Russia White’, while throwing Ukraine and the people under the bus of their geopolitical ambitions. Milley would not be the individual charged with leading this project, and he might have had certain reservations at some point. But he is hardly an independent bystander. Instead, I would mark him as a loyal servant to the Neocon cause, like a ‘Good Soldier’.

        • TTG says:

          Jake,

          You’re the one who brought up Milley’s “slaughter-fest” when you thought he was referring to Russians killing Ukrainians. Why bring it up when you deem him such an unreliable source?

          • Jake says:

            I did? I can’t remember I referred to Milley in this respect at all. But even if I did, it was some time in the past, right? Milley was seen as critical to the prospects of Ukraine in this military conflict some time ago. But our Western ‘leaders’ can be found all over the place, saying one thing today, and something else tomorrow. Because they feel it is in their own best interest, and not because they care about Ukraine. I can handle it from active military people, since they are required to stand in front of the troops, and lie if they have to in order to boost morale, even if the situation is hopeless.

          • TTG says:

            Jake,

            You’re right. I checked and it wasn’t you who brought up Milley’s slaughter-fest comment. It was Stefan. He saw an inconsistency in that comment thinking it was the Russians doing the slaughtering. You’re also right about politicians being all over the place in their pronouncements. From issue to issue, they are often inconsistent. Look at Putin and the rest of his Kremlin henchmen swearing that they would never invade Ukraine until they did.

          • Jake says:

            Thank you for setting the record straight. But why the ‘kicker’ about Putin and his ‘henchmen’? You know perfectly well that Putin never said anything like that. Instead he never made a secret of his ‘calling’ to protect the culturally Russian part of the people living in Ukraine, if ‘Kiev’ would (continue) to use violence against the people in the DPR and LPR, or attempt to take Crimea. In fact, Russia declared that any attempt to take Crimea could result in a nuclear war, since it was Russian territory since the people opted to join the Russian Federation, and leave Nuland’s Ukraine.

  12. VietnamVet says:

    TTG

    World War I and II were close enough together that they were one continuous war with 20 years to reconstitute before starting up again. American military leaders had a short vivid experience with a war of attrition and Generals Marshall, Eisenhower, Patton, Bradley and MacArthur said never again and fought a war of maneuver and victory.

    WWII survivors are now in their 90s and 100s. Vietnam Vets are approaching their dotage. It was around 56 years ago a Chinese diaspora college student pointed out to me in S.E. Asia that the US War with China in Korea was a draw. I don’t know what they are smoking or drinking today but a third world war with China at best will be a draw with millions dead, again, or worse, will result in the complete destruction of the Northern Hemisphere.

    Clearly current Western leaders have no grasp of the horror or craziness of a trench war that never ends. Either there is a UN armistice and DMZ like Korea separating the Ukrainians from the Russians or there will be at best an economic collapse by one side or the other like WWI (already two banks have failed in the USA and one in Switzerland) or a nuclear exchange will end the proxy world war 3 in Ukraine just like atomic bombs ended WWII.

    • Billy Roche says:

      VV; a DMZ along the eastern border of Russia/Ukraine might stop the killing; a good thing. But that would not satisfy the deep felt Russian “need” for empire. It is a emotional need for them to be the “superior” Slav and absent empire Russia, to the Russian, is nothing. Correspondents dance around this issue b/c, I think, it is too horrible to accept. A reconstituted Russian Empire will encourage a more defensive Germany, France, and Britain (God only knows the horror that will result from an agitated Montenegro or Denmark)! About a year ago TTG mentioned the possibility of a Baltic/Slavic/Finnish/Swedish Confederacy apart from NATO. This would be another defensive alliance created in Europe which was, I thought, on her way to a modern continent of peace and progress. The Russians are in the wrong here. They must put 1914 b/h them. They won’t and I am beginning to suspect the Russian people are on the side of Empire.

    • Fred says:

      VV,

      Yes Marshall and Eisenhower had that experience. However it was Wilson and the liberal interventionists, now generally called neocons, who got the US into WWI in the fist place. They are the ones who pushed expansion of NATO, American occupation and transformation of Iraq and Afghanistan, and a majority of the ‘color’ revolutions. They have plenty of allies world wide. “The borg” as col. Lang called them.

  13. Peter Williams says:

    Let’s look at history. The Russian Empire bought the Baltic Statelets for gold from Sweden. Were they worth buying , only to keep Sweden away. What other places were worth buying? Well the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska come to mind. If you want to talk about the Baltic Statelets, refund the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska, or remain a hypocrite.

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