“Moscow’s Kherson troops nearly cut off after Ukrainian strikes damage road and rail bridges”

The damaged Antonovsky bridge in Kherson

Ukrainian artillery almost cut off Russia’s forces in the occupied city of Kherson after badly damaging three key bridges across the River Dnipro.

Kyiv’s forces have been pummelling a number of rail and road crossings over the waterway, and a local Ukrainian official reported on Saturday that they had damaged the last working bridge.

Western intelligence said Russia was now only able to resupply its forces in the southern region using two pontoon ferry crossings, a time-consuming and hazardous process, giving Ukraine’s military a vital edge ahead of its promised offensive to retake the region.

“With their supply chain constrained, the size of any stockpiles Russia has managed to establish on the west bank is likely to be a key factor in the force’s endurance,” the British Ministry of Defence said on Saturday.

Russian commanders have sent as many as 25,000 extra soldiers to reinforce its southern front around the region of Kherson, which it captured without a fight in the first few days of the war.

Moscow’s Kherson troops nearly cut off after Ukrainian strikes damage road and rail bridges (telegraph.co.uk)

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68 Responses to “Moscow’s Kherson troops nearly cut off after Ukrainian strikes damage road and rail bridges”

  1. Leith says:

    The HQ of the RU 49th Combined Arms Army in Kherson is reported as having moved east of the Dnieper River via ferry. If true then those troops left behind without resupply and without leadership will be in a hopeless situation. As someone here mentioned in a past comment that area could become the world’s largest POW camp. On the other hand if it is Ukr propaganda it is brilliant and will sow discord with the troops.

  2. Bill Roche says:

    Pat, how many Russian troops are “trapped” in Kerson and is their end a fore gone conclusion? If not how to escape? They can’t cross via bridge, swim, and air rqrs more helicopters than Cotters Liver Pills. The only Russian recourse is to make the UKM stop shelling, then leave via the pontoon bridges. But that begs two questions (for a civilian); if you want to escape Kerson why did you take it in the first place, and the UKM telegraphed their intentions so how did the RM allow itself to get trapped?
    I’m not one of the ex pros on this thread so pls tolerate me if I ask the obvious.
    On a personal note, how’s the hip? Still at PT? I am not a fan of long term PT; it can only do so much.

    • Pat Lang says:

      BR
      Evidently it is a large piece of 49th CA Army. I tried looking up their strength with no success. The HQ is reported to have moved east of the Dnieper River presumably on ponton rafts. The Ukrainians may have a lot of “guests” soon.

    • Worth Pointing Out says:

      …”They can’t cross via bridge”…

      Why not? The HIMARS rockets haven’t managed to drop a single span of that bridge, all they have managed is to poke holes in the road surface.

      So even if the Russian occupation of Kherson becomes untenable then the troops that are there can simply walk over that bridge to the other side of the river.

      A couple of traffic cones around the holes will prevent the inattentive from falling to their doom.

  3. Barbara Ann says:

    I’ve been doing a little research on the Antonovski road bridge. It is a modern structure (completed in 1985) and classified as a haunched girder bridge. The longest span – which I think is the one being repeatedly targeted – looks to me to be 50m+. Photos from underneath show the bridge is comprised of 2 box sections (one to each side). These kind of bridges are usually constructed as balanced cantilevers (adding box sections equally both sides of each pier) so dropping a whole span would probably take some doing.

    But that’s not the point. Folk fixating on the “small holes” in the deck are missing something rather more important: Footage of the damage clearly shows holes (some not so small) in the top deck but also large holes in the bottom of the box sections, where I guess a projectile has penetrated and exploded inside the section. These box sections are pre-cast – i.e. prefabricated and use prestressed concrete in the base. Holes in top deck can be fixed, up to a point, but if you can cause enough damage to the bottom to cause a failure of one of the box sections (both sides) the integrity of the whole span is compromised. I also think fixing such damage would be well nigh impossible without major engineering works.

    I’d welcome an opinion from someone with expertise in fixing this kind of damage, but that is my 2cents.

    https://structurae.net/en/structures/antonovskiy-bridge

  4. Barbara Ann says:

    I’ve been doing a little research on the Antonovski road bridge. It is a modern structure (completed in 1985) and classified as a haunched girder bridge. The longest span – which I think is the one being targeted – looks to me to be 50m+. Photos from underneath show it is comprised of 2 box sections (one to each side). These kind of bridges are usually constructed as balanced cantilevers (i.e. you add box sections equally both sides of each pier) so dropping a whole span would probably take some doing.

    But that’s not the point. Folk fixating on the “small holes” in the deck are missing something rather more important: Footage of the damage clearly shows holes (some not so small) in the top deck but also large holes in the bottom of the box sections, where I guess a projectile has penetrated and exploded inside the section. These box sections are pre-cast – i.e. prefabricated and use prestressed concrete in the base. Holes in top deck can be fixed, up to a point, but if you can cause enough damage to the bottom to cause a failure of one of the box sections you’d compromise the integrity of the span. I also think fixing it would be well nigh impossible without major engineering works.

    I’d welcome an opinion from someone with expertise in fixing this kind of damage, but that is my 2cents anyhow.

    https://structurae.net/en/structures/antonovskiy-bridge

    • Worth Pointing Out says:

      Barbara Ann, I don’t think the Russians are interested in making the bridge pristine. They aren’t going to rebuild it as good as new because, well, why?

      They are at war. The Ukrainians are poking holes in that road surface.

      All the Russians need to do is to patch those holes so that traffic can resume.

      They don’t need it to look pretty.
      They don’t need it to last for years.

      All they need to do is to patch up the road surface so that cars and trucks can drive over it. Nothing more. No less.

      • Leith says:

        WPO –

        I suspect you have not been paying attention. Russian engineers have patched it up at least twice already. But Ukrainians just keep destroying the patch jobs.

        • Worth Pointing Out says:

          Sure. And the Russians engineers patch up the new holes (four, last time). Then the Ukrainians punch some more holes in it, and the Russians patch it again.

          The Russians can keep that up forever, Leith.

          They can keep it up for as long as the Ukrainians are incapable of dropping a span.

          The Ukrainians are not able to drop a span.

      • PeterHug says:

        Once the bottom part of the box girder is no longer intact, the system will no longer take a load. It will collapse

      • Barbara Ann says:

        WPO

        Are you familiar with how a beam works? Repairs to the deck are not structurally relevant. As Peter Hug says below, if the bottom is damaged badly enough it will no longer be able to support a load, perhaps even its own weight. To my eyes it is clear that is the Ukies’ aim, as I guess they must be using delayed fuses to punch through the deck and detonate inside. And structural repairs to a prestressed section underneath the bridge are no simple matter.

  5. scott s. says:

    Russia navy inability to provide decisive fires or support for amphibious operations is a key failure on this front.

    • Fred says:

      scott s,

      The Russian navy was never built for amphibious assault. Their Black Sea flagship (now sunk) was an anti-ship missle cruiser. One amphibius assualt ship was sunk at pierside months ago. If they are going for Odessa they are coming by land. Blowing up the Saki airfield and its aircraft is significant in that regard.

  6. Leith says:

    Meanwhile Russian artillery is shelling the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Just the outer reaches as they are using it as a shield for their artillery. Blaming it on Ukraine. Ignoring international calls to make it demilitarized.

    • borko says:

      Leith

      what is the logic in shelling the outskirts of nuclear power plant that you occupy and use as shield for your arty ?

      • Leith says:

        borko –

        for propaganda to blame the damage on the other side

        • borko says:

          Leith

          this seems unnecessary since there are already videos of Ukraine attacking the Russians troops at the plant.

          this one for example
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib14UOXBR0w

        • Worth Pointing Out says:

          “for propaganda to blame the damage on the other side”

          That makes no sense. None whatsoever, even if (as you are claiming) the Russians are firing artillery from within the plant.

          If the “shield” does serve its purpose in deterring Ukrainian counter-fire then there is no need for the Russians to “blame” anyone, precisely because there would be no damage being inflicted on the nuclear plant.

          If the “shield” doesn’t deter the Ukrainains and, therefore, they do fire counter-battery artillery into the nuclear plant then, again, there is no need for the Russians to make their own holes in the ground – the Ukrainians are already doing so.

          Either way, any propaganda play-acting is not required.

  7. Fred says:

    Putting 25,000 more troops into a pocket (didn’t we hear about pockets when the Ukrainian’s were ‘surrounded’ not that long ago?) that is supplied via pontoon bridges seems like a really bad idea.

    • Worth Pointing Out says:

      But a reasonable idea if the Russians intend to use Kherson as a bridgehead that they break out of in a “Southern Offensive”.

      I mean, honestly, *someone* has to launch a southern offensive soon, and there are no signs of it being the Ukrainians.

  8. Worth Pointing Out says:

    “Meanwhile Russian artillery is shelling the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”

    To what end?

    “Just the outer reaches as they are using it as a shield for their artillery.”

    So they are putting artillery inside the perimeter of the power plant to shell the outskirts of the power plant.

    To what end?

    “Blaming it on Ukraine.”

    Again, to what end?

    If this situation is as you describe it then it is farcical: the Russians seize a nuclear power plant so they can put artillery in the middle of that site to shell the outskirts of that same site.

    Calling BS on that one, Leith.

    (For one thing, you haven’t even demonstrated that Ukrainian forces are actually positioned on the “outskirts of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant”)

    • TTG says:

      WPO,

      “To what end?”

      Remember the scene in Blazing Saddles when Sheriff Bart holds a gun to his own head and growls, “Hold it. The next man makes a move and the ni**er gets it.”

      Moscow wants the West to back down from supporting Kyiv. It’s an attempt at blackmail.

    • Leith says:

      WPO –

      The Russian artillery inside the perimeter of the power plant is NOT shelling the outskirts of the plant. The Russian artillery inside the perimeter of the power plant is shelling across the Dnieper to civilian targets in the city of Nikopol.

      I never suggested that Ukrainian forces are positioned on the outskirts of the Power Plant. That area is completely under the control of the Russian occupation forces. The closest Ukrainian forces are 20 to 40 km away on the other side of the Khakovka Reservoir.

      Apparently I was not clear in my former comment. My bad.

      • Worth Pointing Out says:

        So the Russians seized a nuclear power plant so that they could install their artillery on the premises, and then used other artillery to shell the perimeter of that same premises for reasons of… reasons.

        Correct?

        So where are the commercial satellite photos showing the Russian artillery sited on the premises of that nuclear power plant, all pointing in the direction of Nikopol?

        After all, I assume that Russian heavy artillery lack a Romulan Cloaking Device, and I doubt very much that they are firing from positions within the reactor core itself.

        The very claim is preposterous, for the obvious “Dog That Did Not Bark In The Night” reasons.

        Because every man and his dog must be eyeballing every satellite image from that location, all vying for the “Ah-hah! Gotcha!” moment when they catch a Russian heavy artillery piece blazing away from within the fence.

        • Leith says:

          WPO –

          No, you drew the wrong conclusions. The Russians seized that nuclear power plant back on 4 March for other reasons: 1] to give the plant to Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear power company, and 2] so that they could ensure electrical power to Crimea and to districts of Ukraine that they occupy.

          It was not until July when they started using it to shield their artillery from counter-battery fire:
          https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-army-turns-ukraines-largest-nuclear-plant-into-a-military-base-11657035694

          By the way, during February and early March the Russians also tried but failed to capture the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant near the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk north of Odessa.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            Your link is behind a firewall, Leith, and I have no intention of handing those newspaper proprietors any of the folding-stuff.

            So, please, post the satellite photos of the heavy artillery pieces that are:
            a) located inside the perimeter fence and
            b) are firing in the direction of Nikopol

            Those satellite photos must exist so, please, when you are ready…..

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            Does that mean we can expect Ukrainian commandos and partisans to start shooting power plant operators and maintenance staff for collaboration?

          • Leith says:

            WPO –

            Or perhaps you can give us that satellite imagery (dated of course) of the NPP showing no evidence of Russian artillery. Be my guest. I understand Sentinel is best.
            https://eos.com/find-satellite/sentinel-2/

          • Leith says:

            Fred –

            Several of the power plant operators were arrested and disappeared by Russia’s neo-KGB. As for the others it behooves them to stay and keep the reactors from melting down.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            LOL so the Russians moved people for ‘reasons’ unkown but the remainder are worried about a ‘melt down’. OK. Having worked in a power plant I can assure you if they were really concerned about that they would shut down all the operating units and if anyone didn’t have management approval to do so it wouldn’t be to damn hard to do, even from out in the HV switchyard where all the transmission grid controls on site are located. Or from the grid control room, wherever that might be located. Reactor meltdown isn’t on anyone’s mind but false-flag types.

          • Leith says:

            Fred –

            They have shut down two of the four reactors because of manning difficulties.

          • borko says:

            Leith

            IMO one of the reasons they took it is to get their hands on weapons grade nuclear material, or rather to prevent its removal by Ukraine.

            According to IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi there might be several hundred kilos of such material at the plant.

            That’s probably also why they took Chernobil only to withdraw from it shortly afterwards.

            Here’s Grossi back in May (at the 07:45 mark) explaining some of his concerns regarding Zaporozye.

            https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2022/sessions/meeting-the-challenge-of-rogue-states-and-leaders

  9. Worth Pointing Out says:

    From the latest assessment from that exemplar of objective analysis ISW.

    They lead with the claim that the road bridges are all out of action and therefore – obviously! – the Russians in Kherson are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

    All very breathless, and then they drop this little nugget: …”ISW cannot confirm at this time whether Russian forces can use the Antonivsky rail bridge to resupply forces on the right bank of the Dnipro River.”

    Hmmmm.

    If the rail line is still operating then the Russians ARE NOT reliant upon pontoon ferries to resupply Kherson, even though ISW had just finished claiming tha the Russians ARE reliant upon those pontoon ferries.

    It is just such sleight-of-hand that suggests to me that the situation in Kherson is not at all what the western reports claim it to be.

    The Russians rely on rail for the resupply of munitions. Everyone acknowledged that when this war started. Many actually chuckled over that.

    Well, sorry, if the Russians rely on rail for resupply and the rail line to Kherson is still running then the Russians are not in a dire situation, and all the Ukrainians have achieved is to make life difficult for the civilians in Kherson who have to regularly travel over that road bridge.

    • TTG says:

      WPO,

      That bridge can certainly support foot traffic, but trains are out of the question. Have you seen the close up photos. The same goes for the other bridges.

      • Worth Pointing Out says:

        “That bridge ”

        Which bridge, TTG?

        “Have you seen the close up photos.”

        Photos of the Antonovsky Bridge? Sure, I have. And the videos.

        It is a road bridge. It ain’t the main rail bridge into Kherson, which is further north.

        • TTG says:

          WPO,

          I’m talking about the rail bridge upriver from the Antonovsky Bridge.

          https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_military_cut_off_the_railway_bridge_near_kherson_quick_restoration_is_impossible_video-3725.html

          The one over the Nova Kakhovka Dam isn’t looking too good either.

          https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1557390600877522946

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            The video of the damage in the first link you is over two weeks old. The claim is made that this is “significant damage that cannot be repaired promptly”.

            What does that rail bridge look like now, TTG?

            As for the Nova Kakhovka Dam (which was the bridge that I was talking about) the Ukrainians are only claiming damage to the road bridge, not to the rail bridge.

          • Klapper says:

            I don’t think the Ukranians can stop traffic across the hydro dam 50 km upstream of Kherson for long, not without blowing up the dam itself. The spans across the locks are the weak link but they’re only 20 m long so quick to repair.

          • Leith says:

            I believe the Ukrainians have taken out the rail at Nova Kakhova.

            Klapper is correct that spans across the locks are only 20 m long so quick to repair. But just like the other bridges, Ukrainian HIMARS attacks them again after they have been repaired. And recently they have also been attacking the elevated roadway leading onto Nova Kakhova bridge.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            “I believe the Ukrainians have taken out the rail at Nova Kakhova.”

            Good for you.

            And if wishes were horses then Zelensky would be riding around on a fine white stallion.

            The idea that Russian engineers couldn’t repair – or even replace – a 20 meter span of railway tracks in a matter of days is about as ludicrous as your confident claim of a week ago that there was no way – no way! – that the Russians would be able to build a pontoon bridge to Kherson.

            Until they did. Two, I believe.

          • Leith says:

            wpo –

            Again, please show us those two mythical pontoon bridges to Kherson that you claim the Russians built.

    • Al says:

      WPO, then why the pontoon bridges put in the river?

      • Worth Pointing Out says:

        Its a city, Al. A city full of civilians. Civilians who need to cross that river.

        I mean, honestly!, am I the *only* person who follows the links that Pat Lang puts in his articles?

        Those links contain videos that CLEARLY show that the pontoon ferries are being used to transport civilians back and forth across the river.

        Because, you know, there are a lot of civilains in Kherson who need to cross that river.

        I…. honestly… words fail me.

        • Leith says:

          WPO –

          Apparently you missed the trucks and vans with the ‘Z’ markings of the Russian occupiers. You need to look again. Those are not all civilian ‘vehicles’. The civilians on that ferry are there as a shield so that the Ukrainians will not attack it.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            Yeah, I’ve looked again. The vast bulk of all the vehicles going across that ferry are civilian cars and vans.

            There are a huge number of videos showing the massive, massive queue of vehicles waiting their turn to go across the river.

            Again, the vast, vast majority are very clearly civilian cars and civilian vans.

            “The civilians on that ferry are there as a shield so that the Ukrainians will not attack it.”

            Oh, please, give it a rest. There is zero credibility to that claim.

          • Leith says:

            WPO –

            I’m sure there are plenty of civilians in Kherson who want out. But to deny that the Russians are using them to keep the ferries from being targetted is absurd.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            Fer’ crying out loud, Leith, look at the videos that Pat Lang has linked to.

            LOOK at them.

            The civilians on those ferries are not being hustled along at gunpoint. They aren’t being used to provide human shields for military equipment That Isn’t Actually On The Ferry.

            Those civilians are on those ferries because they want to go from one side of the river to the other, and the Russians are providing that service to them.

            “But to deny that the Russians are using them to keep the ferries from being targetted is absurd.”

            I…. honestly, I despair

            LOOK at the videos.

            Those ferries are operating for the benefit *of* those civilians. The Russians are providing those ferries as a service *to* those civilians.

            If the Russians are worried that the ferries are going to be blown sky-high then they’d simply tell the Kherson civilians that, so sorry, no ferry service for you.

            I mean, honestly, claiming that the Russians are using these civilians as “human shields” to protect a ferry service that exists for the passage of, you know, those very same civilians is just …. bizarre.

            No, it is beyond bizarre.

            The Ukrainians are shooting at the Russians using HIMARS i.e. they are shooting at river transport from over 30 miles away.

            How do you expect this “human shield” gambit to work when it is obvious that the Ukrainian HIMARS operators will have no way of even knowing – much less caring – who or what is being transported on those ferries?

          • Leith says:

            wpo-

            The Russians don’t need to force civilians onto the ferry to do that. All they need to do is put several of their trucks and vans on the ferry as shown in the video. And then allow the rest of the space for civilians wanting to travel.

            A human shield is a human shield whether or not it is at gunpoint or voluntary.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            So those cunning Russians plan to supply their forces in Kherson one-truck-per-ferry-at-a-time, and the remaining 90% of the space on that ferry is then devoted to “human shielding” that one truck.

            Yep, that’d work a treat. The Russian 49th Combined Arms Army is saved! Saved!

            Next you’ll be telling me that one particular truck was on that one particular ferry run because the “HQ of the RU 49th Combined Arms Army” was cowering in the back of the van.

          • Leith says:

            WPO –

            I counted at least seven trucks and vans on that ferry in the video. Those white vans have been used by Russians for several months now as their Kamaz army trucks are too easily ID’d and targetted. And if you watch the video to the end you will see that the majority of the civilians were pedestrians. So probably even some of the civilian vehicles on the ferry were stolen and driven by Ivans.

        • Worth Pointing Out says:

          Leith: “Those white vans have been used by Russians for several months now as their Kamaz army trucks are too easily ID’d and targetted.”

          Those particular white vans, or white-vans-in-general?

          Honestly, you should listen to yourself sometime.

          “And if you watch the video to the end you will see that the majority of the civilians were pedestrians.”

          No, what I am seeing is that all of the pedestrians are civilians. You have no information about how many civilians are in those cars and vans, you just have your pre-conceived ideas.

          “So probably even some of the civilian vehicles on the ferry were stolen and driven by Ivans.”

          I… what?? Are you claiming that those pedestrians drove their white vans onto the pontoon, and then had those vans confiscated at gunpoint?

          Why would anyone drive their vehicle onto the pontoon if that were the case? Don’t you think that word would spread rather quickly?

  10. Al says:

    WPO, Yes, your words often fail!

  11. Mark Logan says:

    Brings to mind TE Lawrence, when he decided about the worst thing they could do was cut the lines to Medina, or hit them so hard the Turks abandoned keeping a garrison there. It was better to have the Turks stretched in defending and constantly having to repair of it. Perhaps that is what the Ukrainians are going to do now.

  12. Tidewater says:

    Russian Pontoon Ferry Units, using PTS-2 amphibious cargo vehicles, can put up a pontoon ferry inside an hour capable of carrying one or two main battle tanks across wide reaches of open water. They could have five more of these pontoon ferries up and running before lunch any time, any place along a good long stretch of the Dnieper, like maybe tomorrow.

    Any Ukrainian counter-offensive gathering its forces will be observed and brought under aerial and artillery bombardment including by TOS-1 thermobaric weapons even before its armored vehicles and infantry can get into a safe, pre-attack, last-minute check, assembly area, much less reach a line of departure. The Russian General Staff can only dream of such a possibility– great good fortune bringing Ukrainian forces inside the grid coordinates of a pre-determined kill zone that be established in some cases many miles distant, as many as fifty? about June 16, Ukraine fought a series of battles attempting to cross the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnieper upstream of Kherson. Some of the aerial videos contemporary with this fighting looked like a tank snuff film. They were not able to establish a bridgehead on the other side. It was said that Ukraine was forced by the British to make this sacrifice to counter some bad news elsewhere.

    Then Ukraine is said to have moved troops and artillery from the defensive line that ranges from Ma’rinka to Pesky to Avdiivka, a fortress line comparable in strength to Umurbrogol Mountain on Pelilieu (1944). Russian intelligence noticed this, it is asserted, and began to current assault in Donbas. The result? Today it seems very certain that Pesky has been cleared and is under Russian allied control. The significance of this in the Battle of Donbas is as was the capture of Popasna in early May. Dominos thereafter fell. Noted and forgotten, practically. The dominos of interest, soon enough to fall and then be forgotten, are Bakhmut and its suburb Soledar. The fighting is within both places, including coincidentally at another German mining operation at Soledar called Knauf-Gips, apparently a gypsum drywall manufacturer. As in the Pacific, there are an unknown number of defending troops who have chosen to be trapped underground at Soledar. It’s pretty clear to me that events are moving towards a significant victory for Russia and its allies in the Donbas in the next thirty days.

    • Leith says:

      Tidewater –

      Ukrainians have established a bridgehead over the Inhulets River. Near Lozove I believe. Reportedly they have held it against several counter-attacks.

      As for Popasna, yesterday there was a massive Ukrainian strike on the Wagner PMC HQ there. Supposedly while Putin’s good friend Prigozhin was visiting.

      • PeterHug says:

        Protip – When you post pictures of your military HQ and senior command personnel on social media, do try to make sure the pictures don’t contain the actual street address.

    • Klapper says:

      Tidewater:

      I agree with you…I think….depending on what you interpret “significant victory for Russia”. If you mean by that capturing Bakhmut, maybe even Slovyansk, in the next 30 days, but not all of Donetsk Oblast.

      As a sobering dose of reality for those expecting a big Kherson counteroffensive soon, here’s on the ground testimony from Canadian volunteers who came back, which doesn’t speak too highly of the Ukrainian commanders there: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/canadians-on-ukraine-front-lines

      • Tidewater says:

        Klapper,

        Thanks for your comment. Yes, I think the linchpin, for now, is Bakhmut. If Bakhmut falls, I would think you would see a scramble by the Ukrainian troops who have been positioned from there and Soledar up to Siversk, and at certain points between this defensive line and the river. They would be forced to abandon equipment and make a run to get back to Slovyansk. It would be a twenty-mile or so retreat, I would guess, over open country, and for many it might be at night, in small groups, carrying a couple of days’ food and water, and light arms. They would be harried by helicopter gunships, drones, and artillery fire. I’ve seen a video of this kind of escape told quite succinctly by a Ukrainian soldier who at one point simply shrugged, shook his head, and laughed a little at what had been his predicament. They had had to lay up in underbrush when the helos came over, sometimes for three or four hours at a time.

        It reminds me of Ralph Keeler’s interview with Owen Brown, John Brown’s son, years after the event. Somehow Keeler found out where Owen Brown lived, went there, met him, and got Owen Brown to tell him the story: how he led a very small group in an escape from Harper’s Ferry. It is one of the best things I ever read! You can find it on the internet. It came out in the ‘Atlantic’, I think, and it would be titled “Owen Brown’s escape from Harper’s Ferry.” By Ralph Keeler. How he even got the interview, how he even found Owen Brown, on an island near a summer resort on one of the Great Lakes where I’ve never been, all of it is remarkable. It would even make a good movie, I think, with Owen Brown’s story dominating the middle of it as he talks through a long afternoon. It might start with the reporter’s arrival by steamboat at what was an interesting, even beautiful place, the meeting of the two strangers, going to the family farm of the older one, with each man sizing the other up, and then getting down to the business of telling and hearing a tale (taking notes?), sort of like Conrad’s Marlow, come to think of it, with his back to a mast over the turn of a tide…

        • Klapper says:

          I will look up the story. I like military history, especially of the American civil war, although I’m not American.

  13. Al says:

    From Daily Mail:
    Ukraine Wipes Out Mercenary HQ After Russian Posts Photo

    Smiling alongside mercenaries in full combat gear, this is how Russian war propagandist Sergei Sreda marked a visit to Wagner’s Ukraine headquarters last week – saying they welcomed him ‘like family’ and told ‘funny stories’.

    But Sreda actually condemned the men to death – giving away the base’s location in the occupied city of Popasna after inadvertently photographing a street sign that contained the address of a nearby bomb shelter.

    That was all experts needed to locate the base, which Ukraine then used to launch a HIMARS strike. Confirmation that it had been struck came on Sunday, when Telegram channels with links to Wagner began posting photos of the aftermath – including soldiers being carried away on stretchers.

    It is just the latest embarrassing blunder for Vladimir Putin’s forces almost six months into what was supposed to be a days-long war in Ukraine – having been forced to retreat from Kyiv, seen the Black Sea flagship Moskva sunk, withdrawn from Snake Island, and last week seen an airbase in Crimea all-but wiped off the map.

    A few days ago, the Grey Zone (RSOTM) Telegram channel posted photos of a visit to the so-called Wagner HQ in the Donbas (Popasna). Prigozhin may have been there.

    The photos were apparently easy to geolocate. Ukraine destroyed it in a HIMARS strike today. https://t.co/dZCh3oqhpH pic.twitter.com/ejkCLDRlrX

  14. Al says:

    Klapper, as your submitted article stated:
    Per a Canadian soldier, “… Ukraine soldiers, I’ve never seen people that motivated… They’re gonna fight to the death… These guys are real, real, warriors.. I love these guys…” Back in Canada already he is about returning to Ukraine.

    Clapper, totally different perspective from your take. Rather, this Canadian reporting what TTG has pointed out from start of Russia’s invasion.

    • Klapper says:

      Al:

      I was talking about the military leadership, not the rank and file. As per this statement:

      “Paul doesn’t question the courage of his Ukrainian comrades, but was less than impressed by the leadership.”

      There’s a few illuminating comments along that train of thought in the article, but in short it sounds like the Ukrainian military logistics/communication is in a state verging on chaos.

  15. Al says:

    Klapper, my apology for the misspell of your name. Damn “auto correct” and my poor review before sending.

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