Thousands of Russian troops posted west of Ukraine’s Dnieper River have found themselves in a vulnerable position as Ukrainian forces have blocked most eastern supply routes, the U.K. defense ministry said Saturday.
British intelligence has assessed that two primary bridges in the occupied region of Kherson are now unusable for the transport of heavy military vehicles after Ukrainian precision strikes again targeted one of the crossings Wednesday.
“Russia has only succeeded in making superficial repairs to the damaged Antonovsky road bridge which likely remains structurally undermined,” the U.K. intelligence update said.
UKRAINE TAKES OUT KEY BRIDGE ‘DESTROYING’ RUSSIAN PLANS FOR SOUTH ‘ADVANCEMENT’
Ukrainian forces began targeting major crossings relied on by Russian forces in the region for resupply routes and access to the Crimean Peninsula last month.
A rail line is also believed to have been damaged beyond use.
Russian troops have since been forced to rely on pontoon bridges to transport men and supplies over the river that separates Ukraine’s southwestern regions from Crimea.
“Even if Russia manages to make significant repairs to the bridges, they will remain a key vulnerability,” the U.K. defense ministry assessed. “Ground resupply for the several thousand Russian troops on the west bank is almost certainly reliant on just two pontoon ferry crossing points.”
Comment: I get a big kick out of the TuckerCarlson/MacGregor/TulsiGabbard crowd who blather on about “competent military analysis” and “inevitable Russian victory” while ignoring things like this. There has to be an interesting propaganda apparat supporting all the BS
Tucker Carlson should bestir himself to go to Ukraine and visit both sides. pl
Unless one is on the ground, pointless trying to give sitreps. RT news would say the exact opposite…meh. Russia is crossing one way or another but even that doesn’t matter. Ukraine has over 1T in damages. Nobody has the money to rebuild and repair and the millions that fled are not going back to that hellhole.
are you kidding? building things anew after blowing them up is what the West does best. heck, the Chinese are probably re-thinking the wisdom of sticking w/ the losers… not many yuan in that.
There are (at least) $350 billion in frozen Russian reserves that likely will be made available for this.
My speculation is that Tucker/Tulsi are skeptical of our interventions in distant shores precisely because of our recent track record in Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria.
They have grounds for this skepticism:
– Trillions borrowed from future generations. How much of it was siphoned by the Beltway Bandits and how much actually ended up at their destination?
– What was the end result? We left Afghanistan to the Taliban after 20 years. Iraq is still a mess with the Iranian theocracy in the prime spot supporting their Shia brethren. We backed the head-choppers in Syria and now the Iranian theocracy is again in a pole position there.
– The immense consequences here at home from justification for mass surveillance; secret FISA courts ripe for abuse as we saw with the Russia Collusion hoax; the Patriot Act; and the rise of an unaccountable national security state that has gotten so brazen; the utter corruption of our political system on a bipartisan basis.
IMO, the real battle is here at home. Who are the forces that are defending our constitutional republican order? Where are the forces fighting back against the usurpation of power by a narrow oligarchic elite? Are these foreign interventions a mere guise to mask the march towards increasing authoritarianism? We saw the consequences of covidian authoritarianism unleashed by and large by an unaccountable “public health” bureaucracy backed by corporate & digital media as well as political leadership of both parties with a few exceptions like Florida, that only benefited the laptop class and the narrow interests of the medical oligarchy while trashing our fundamental civil rights and screwing over the working class big time. Forcible injection of an experimental “therapeutic” masquerading as a vaccine that didn’t prevent infection or transmission.
There is a strong argument that we have bigger issues here at home that need our utmost attention to restore our unique form of a limited government and a social construct that values liberty above all and not become just a slogan.
Always amazed to hear we are protecting democracy in Ukraine while the Federal government attacks our democracy at home and the politicized federal agencies turn us into a banana republic.
We do seem to be crossing into GDR territory here in the US.
I watched all the lies that were told over the years about the war in Syria, the covid pandemic/vaccines, the fraud in the 2020 US election, the Freedom Convoy in Canada, and now the Ukraine war. It was depressing to think they were getting away with these lies, but watching Tucker a few nights a week, if only his opening monologue, gave me hope that once in a while, someone noticed these lies, even if it was only one news show.
However, I don’t think they’re going to get away with the Ukraine war lies. This time might be different.
So, Colonel, do you believe that Ukraine will ultimately prevail and drive Russian Forces out of Donbas and Crimea? It appears you and TTG want that to happen, but do you think it will?
Furthermore, do you guys think the separatist aspirations of the LD, Donbas, are illegitimate and deserve to be crushed? If not, why the cheerleading for the Ukrainian cause, whatever that actually is?
And one final question..Why is the USA so supportive of separatist movements everywhere but there?
Let me offer a little advice. This is ASA as enlisted during the Nam era. We E and Sp ranks always marveled at how the INTELLIGENCE that was forwarded through TopSecret/Crypto channels was IGNORED. I say “ignored” because we could figure out how the decisions made were made.
But listened to you, TTG, I’ve come to a new conclusion. I’ve posted it before; but, it was taken down and others never posted.
Here’s how a ‘winning’ team is built: The basic assumption is the the ‘other side’ is the absolute smartest with the most and best support. What THAT requires is that you have to build to prevail against such a situation.
I cannot figure why you so grossly dislike/disrespect Russia and Russians so extremely. I assure you it affects your evaluations. Why do you so hate them?
DS,
I’ve never really disliked the Russian people and their culture. But I’ve often disliked and even despised Russian government, and Soviet government before that, policies and actions. Maybe you’re giddy over the brutal occupation of the Baltics and the nearly as brutal invasion of Ukraine by your beloved Russians. I’m not.
But beyond that, I often spoke highly of both the Ukrainian separatists back in 2014 and 2015 and the Russian operations in Syria here on Turcopolier and on SST before that. You can look it up. The DNR and LNR of today is barely a shadow of the old separatists of those lands. The old rebel heroes have been replaced by self-serving toadies, mostly from Russia itself. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is incomparable with their brilliant, and invited, intervention in Syria.
What is the “change” from the Givi and Motorola of the past? What is your infatuation with the constant shelling of civilians for the eight years since 2014? How do you support the failure of Ukraine to comply with Minsk agreements? What is the basis of your support for the shelling of civilians of Don River Basin?
What is the basis of your disapproval of the current Russian government that worked diligently for EIGHT years to get the Ukraine to live up to those Minsk agreements?
DS,
Let’s review the saga of the Donbas separatists. Ukraine was marked by acute corruption and disfunction in the years after regaining her independence. With the Orange Revolution and the Euromaidan, there were small movements towards crawling out from under that corruption and disfunction. The Donbas was losing its most favored region status within Ukraine. Unfortunately, those movements also unleashed the Pravy Sektor and Svoboda ultra-nationalists. Those ultra-nationalist gained power and influence far beyond their numbers aided by thoroughly corrupt oligarchs. They posed a real threat to the lives and well being to those in the Donbas favoring close ties with Russia. Separatist resistance to the predations of the ultra-nationalists was inevitable and completely understandable. Russia took advantage of this situation by sending in forces and leaders like Igor Girkin (Strelkov) to fan the flames of separatism. The dilapidated Ukrainian Army reacted in the only fashion they knew… in a typically Soviet iron fist manner. And just like that we have the Donbas War.
The original indigenous political and military leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk wanted the same thing that the leaders of the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan wanted, an escape from the suffocating corruption and incompetence of the old Ukraine. But for some reason, their Russian protectors had no interest in that goal. I can understand Moscow’s uncomfortableness with a free and prosperous Ukraine. That would make Russia look bad. But they could have made Luhansk and Donetsk into a shining example of the Russian way, even if it was a Potemkin village. Instead they created a gulag from the 1930s. Those original separatist leaders who were not killed in the war, were removed (or killed) and replaced with Moscow toadies. Here’s two articles that describe what the DNR and LNR had become by the start of the current Russian invasion.
https://theconversation.com/the-hope-is-finished-life-in-the-ukrainian-separatist-regions-of-donetsk-and-luhansk-177685
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/22/what-are-donetsk-and-luhansk-ukraines-separatist-statelets
The article below does a good job of illustrating just who was shelling who in the Donbas, at least since 2020. What many Russian apologists either don’t know or refuse to believe is that so many of those Donbas casualties occurred on the Ukrainian side of the line of contact. When Moscow recognized the DNR and LNR as independent states, they could have openly moved up to that line of contact and stopped all LNR/DNR shelling and sniping. To avoid a further invasion, Ukrainian forces would have followed suit. Then we would have all been in a very different situation that what we are in now.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer
I suggest you “talk around” the topic and circumstance. I’ve mentioned before (if I could get my contribution posted and, then, not taken down later) that I considered living in Ukraine by alternating a year there and a year in the states. This was before 2004. I have visited there. I have walked the streets of Luhansk. I have taken the train to and from Kyiv and Luhansk. I have listened to MOST of the people on Kreschatuk (sp) avenue in Kyiv speak RUSSIAN. I have swum in the Dnieper River.
You have selected “convenient” articles to post. Your objective is to fashion YOUR outcome.
You failed to talk about AGREEMENTS; specifically MINSK I and II. Why? The agreements agreed to “independence” for the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.
Why?
TTG,
Thanks for the summary. I would point out that the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan had outside backers as well.
Fred,
True, I believe it was to the tune of five billion dollars over ten years. Don’t know if that’s for all former Soviet and WTO countries or just Ukraine.
Devens Sharecropper –
The Minsk Agreements did NOT grant “Independence” to Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.
They did agree to local self governance but only in particular districts based on the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014 – in other words within LPR and DPR. The so-called elections within LPR and DPR were a travesty and not in accordance with the Minsk Protocol. That was according to the Swiss Chairman of OSCE at the time, Didier Burkhalter. As a Swiss he had no dog in the fight and gave an unbiased opinion.
DS take some time to read Ukrainian history and you’ll get your answers. Ukrainians tried to win independence from Austria and Russia b/f WW I and Russian Commies after ’17. They tried again during WW II. The Banderites, many of whom were anti-semetic as well as anti -communist, were part of this. Russian communists, some VERY powerful ones were Jewish, were part of Lenin’s action to send 200M Ukrainians to Western Siberia b/f his NEP and Stalin’s deliberate starvation of 6MM Ukrainians to death b/c they resisted collectivization. It should be noted that Finns, Balts, Slovaks, and Armenians also had resistance fighters who wore Nazi uniforms while fighting the Communists. These western neighbors of Russia were considered inferiors and treated accordingly. When the S.U. fell in ’91 every Baltic and Slavic nation turned their guns east, not west against Europe. Given recent events two other countries w/long histories of hostility from Russia, Finland and Sweden, have elected to join up w/NATO. Why has every land from Sweden to Armenia elected to look west for security FROM Russia? These people d/n consider themselves “little Slavs, children of Mother Russia”, but many Russians still do. Until 1917 they were all considered by the Czar to be part of the Russian Empire. The Communist just continued this during the Communist civil war from 1918 to 1922. Indeed there is a long history of oppression and mistrust in this region. When Putin says Ukraine d/n really exist and Baltics, Sweden, and Finland had better be careful who they choose as friends it is impossible to ignore the history of Russian objectives. Russian desire for hegemony over her western neighbors far exceeds the last 8 years since Minsk. Non Russian Slavs, Balts, and Finns have simply said to Russia ; enough, we’re not your dog anymore.
On a personal note I circulated through Gordon in the spring of ’69. Lots of ASA guys were there. It was a respected outfit.
I make the sad mistake to think that some LEGITIMATE INFORMATION will make a difference. I cite my ASA time because we learned in deep, deep training a lot of information that was classified as TOP SECRET and could NOT be talked about at all. For example, we learned in ASA classrooms in the mid-1960s that there no GULF OF TONKIN/USS MADDOX agression by the N Vietnamese. I finally came to grips with that in (I think it was about) 2005 when the files were open and the actual admission was there.
I came to realize that as time went by old stuff was put out of mind. NOT MINE! Another example, when the Covid thing popped up, I immediately recalled by specific training in what we then called GERM WARFARE. In the Army classroom in the 1960s we were taught about OUR use of GERM WARFARE in Korea. I had pretty significant training about the work and use of Fort Detrick in Maryland ‘back in the day’.
You cite some “things” that should lead one to think negatively about the Russian Federation. The great mass of USA society has been led in that direction all their lives.
Can you imagine if, along the lines of the citations you provide, you were put in charge with molding the minds of youth in Russia about the USA? Videos of WMD in Iraq by Colin Powell justified MILLIONS of deaths. Hello?
Explain to me about Russia hegemony???
What is the supporting motivation to twist?
I remember, also, my time with a Primary Dealer of Wall Street fame. With my ASA training I was able to SEE behind the curtain of what was “officially” taught and to see WHO WAS BEHIND THE CURTAIN.
That’s more than enough from me. Good day.
“Fight outnumbered and win” 8th Infantry, Baumholder – my Ft Stewart buddy was there in an armor unit, and I was few clicks away in a Hawk unit, both Spec 4s.
Devin,I cannot speak forTTG and do not believe he hates Russia.But I can tell you why I fear Russia.I do not fear Ukraine or any western European country.I suggest you read the book “Red Famine” written by Anne Applebaum,about the starving to death of 4.2 million Ukrainians by Stalin in the1920s.Stalin had a saying he liked”People cause problems ,you get rid of people,you get rid of problems.’…….Stalin and the Russians massacred 22,000 Polish Officers,intelligentia and POW in the Khatyn Forrest Massacre in about 1942.The president of Poland recently mentioned this on American tv and said every Pole was aware of it……readChurchill notes about how England was helping the Russians in WW2 and how the Russians reacted……………Now for anecdotal stuff…………….I am 79 and about35 years ago I befriended a Polish Jewish MD,He he lived to be 94.He fought the Nazi when they invaded Poland and was there when Russia took over.He left Poland in 1954……….He disliked Hitler and Stalin the same.Read what Russia did to Eastern Europe at the end of ww2……………..Finally,about 25 years ago a customer of mine from Lithuania( sp?) mentioned to me that most East Europeans who were under both the Germans and then the Russians preferred the Germans.Since then ,every chance I got to ask an older person(they have all died out now)who was under both the Germans and the Russians,EVERY person has said they were better treated by the Germans FWIW……..BTW in a 1 30 am very private Dinner at Stalin’s house Churchill asked Stalin about the Ukrainian “situation” .Stalin simply replied that the peasants had risen up and killed the farmers(Kulaks) .
Phillip, I appreciate your sincere input. First, make a note: it’s DEVENS and that is for Fort Devens, MA (now dormant). I use that handle because I was stationed at Fort Devens in the late 1960s as the Army Security Agency (also now dormant) was semi-headquartered (Fort Meade the actual) there. So, too, was the 10th Special Forces of which I had several enlisted buddies. In fact some of us had planned to go to this outdoor concert that became known as Woodstock. I got put on duty at the last minute and we all did not attend. I often wonder what our military hair styles would have stirred up???
The Russian Federation of today was the major state of the USSR–Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The USSR ceased to exist in 1991 when, mainly, the Russian Federation chose to exit. I point this out because you have brought up some history of the USSR when, in fact, the Russian Federation is NOT the USSR.
If I am able, I will post a comment regarding World War II and the ‘contribution’ of the Red Army (the forces of the USSR).
More later.
Thanks Devens,It is a small world.A distant cousin of mine ,Col Richard Kattar,was the Commander of Fort Devins from 1979 to 1982………….The USSR may have changed their name but the dna of the Russians and their past deeds are still there.The impressive 43 year old female PM of Estonia recently said on American TV that Putin cannot win this war,…..Id love to see an accurate survey of all the leaders and peoples of the Baltics……Iwas in the army also just a infantry guy in the First Cav……………Spent one year 1963-1964 right on the 38 parallel in Korea.That was interesting.Sent to VM with 4 before ETS.Was involved in a few minor battles.Left a few days before the Chupong Mtn battle.
Colonel
They all have their audience and I guess there is money to made.
They are lucky to be US based. The UK recently froze all assets of Graham Philips who is a pro Russian journalist/activist.
Probably the same could happen in Canada which is I assume why we don’t hear from Patrick Armstrong. It would be interesting to hear his take on all this, though.
On the other hand we have a lot of Us based pro Russian (v)bloggers that profit off of all this. People like the S. Ritter, Col. MacGregor, LJ, Andrei Martyanov and others.
Pat Lang
One of the Russophile bozoz here suggested that armies that are being defeated destroy bridges. I hope he is not really that stupid. Yes, an army making a major withdrawal but equally an army that has several thousand troops isolated west of a blockage in logistics will do the same thing.
You and TTG have been predicting a Ukrainian counter-offensive for some time now. Resupply problems are a far cry from an attack by the Ukrainians. It is one thing to fire a missile at a bridge from a long distance but it is quite another to mount an attack in force. Maybe that is why we are still waiting.
TR,
You want to see a massive combined arms assault with lots of fiery explosions and lots of casualties. The Ukrainian military is a lot smarter than you or anyone else expecting that. They will not oblige you. The offensive is taking place on the Ukrainians’ terms and on the Ukrainians’ timetable.
that may be but according to the Washington Post, the Ukrainian offensive has stalled. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/12/ukraine-kherson-battle/
That article was posted yesterday. The text of the article points to reasons other than brilliant military strategy as a reason for the halt – after what appears to be rather marginal gains.
TR,
The Ukrainians have regained more territory in both the Kherson and Kharkiv regions than the Russians gained in the Donbas over the last several months. The oddest point of the Kherson battle was the amount of telegraphing of a coming offensive put out by the Ukrainian government. That was contrary to every other move made by their military. What that accomplished was drawing Russian forces out of the Donbas front and to the Kherson where the task of resupplying those troops is much more difficult. Was that the plan? I don’t know.
TTG et al I want to make it clear that IMO you are one of the best analysts of combat operations that I have known, and I had some really good ones in DIA.
TTG, I’d say we’re left guessing about the motives, strategy and tactics of those acting on the Ukrainian side. Those in charge are triggered in various ways. Or, in other words, those in charge are not on the same page. I already noted that certain key-players saw this war as a golden opportunity to tackle Putin, and wanted this war. That particular league doesn’t give a hoot about Ukraine, or the people. Compare with Zbigniew Brzeziński, the father of Al Qaeda, who was asked about having any possible regrets, which he didn’t have. Sinking the Soviet Union was more important by far, as far as he was concerned. Same thing with those who knowingly lied about the WMD in Iraq, when Tony Blair said that ‘history’ would show us it was all worth it.
A huge group with various interests in exploiting the riches of the country do not care about who is ruling it, as long as they can grab the stuff they are after. The ‘Military-Industrial-Complex’ is interested in selling weapons. In another contribution to this website I’ve shown readers links to articles about (soccer) Hooligans who crave war and fighting the ‘other team’. No doubt, lost in all of this, there are genuine people who want Ukraine to be their safe, and prosperous home, and some are leaning towards the west as offering the best perspective, while others want Victoria Nuland and her cronies prosecuted because they spoiled it for them.
Like you, I’m not in Ukraine, and my future is not in that country. I’m just observing, and trying to figure out which ‘smart-ass’ is calling the shots on the Ukrainian side. Is it Joe Biden? Is it Boris Johnson? Liz Truss perhaps? Is it Jens Stoltenberg? Is Volodymyr Zelensky left with any authority at all? Which individual, within the government, or which general, is calling the shots?
Mind you, as this entire ‘Taiwan thing’ revealed, any individual above a certain pay grade can wreck havoc, and start a war, without bearing any responsibility for the outcome. And having no clue whatsoever about how it should be fought to win. Which is why critics are referring to NATO and its entourage as the ‘Empire of Chaos’. I personally gave up on thinking that someone, somewhere must know what we are doing. Same pattern in many individual countries, most certainly the US. And believe me, I’d wish it would be different!
Now, as far as those bridges and this offensive is concerned, I’m afraid it depends on who you are talking to if you want to know why they are destroying bridges, and what exactly would constitute a major offensive. You appear to be covering your back by saying it is all part of an ingenious plan, which is sure to succeed, although you have no clue what this plan entails. I will not speculate myself why Ukraine is destroying bridges, and trying to create a nuclear disaster by shelling a power plant, which is still delivering electricity to Ukrainians, though the Russians are controlling it. I hear you when you say it is all part of this great, ingenious plan, but I’m willing to accept it is ‘scorched earth’ tactics, without a plan. Or part of a plan to bleed Russia dry, while sacrificing Ukraine, and its people.
On the other side of the fence there is Russia, with a plan. Liberate the Donbas, secure water and energy for Crimea, possibly extend control along the Black Sea coast, all the way to Transnistria, demilitarize Ukraine, if needed by killing their soldiers in their trenches and fortifications, and destroying their equipment (the seventh Himars went up in smoke, apparently, with those vaunted bridges still standing), and leave the ‘NeoNazis’ who are in charge behind with nothing but debt, in an economically depleted country. That’s a plan.
jake,
Hey, you forgot the cauldrons in “That’s a Plan”! Whatever happened to those cauldrons that were imminent and gonna crush the Ukies? b at Moon of Alabama and other Putin The Master Strategist crowd were extolling the superior arms, training and tactics of Putin’s forces and how they’d crush the Ukies in days. They’re still doing the 64D chess thingy??
Peacock, I’m not Bernhard ‘b’, or card-carrying member of the ‘Putin the Master Strategist’ fanclub, nor do I particularly like that kind of labeling. I’m not in the business of predicting, but observing, analyzing and commenting. My observation where you are responding to, stated that the Russians advertised a plan, and from what I’m observing, they stick to it.
In fact, the cauldrons happened, and taking their time fits right in, since their superior artillery allows them to demilitarize Ukraine from a distance, limiting their own losses. Only now western sources admit what others saw months ago, that these trenches and fortifications are death traps.
Jake
that is not a plan but a war of aggression.
Ukraine’s Black sea coast is not his to take, neither is Kherson or Zaporozje or Kharkov.
Borko, any war needs a plan, whether it is offensive or defensive. To be left improvising is usually a clear sign that a party is vulnerable. In this case I see two parties who came prepared. No lack of evidence that Ukraine/NATO anticipated on an armed conflict as a result of seeking a confrontation with the Russians over ignoring this Minsk accord, and several other agreements and promises. Their plan called for massive fortifications, and trenches, and armament tailored to fight a Russian ‘Blitzkrieg’, which never came. Moreover, from what I’ve seen and read, they prepared ‘special forces’ which were to transform into ‘Stay Behind’, ‘Gladio’ saboteurs/terrorists, out of uniform, once the Russians would have rushed past them. Which didn’t happen.
The Russian plan called for massive, never seen before, artillery bombardment of those fortifications and trenches, causing huge losses on the Ukrainian side, while limiting their own losses. And once they moved to take more terrain, they went slowly, deliberately, careful to avoid running into traps, and clearing the area of suspicious ‘Stay Behind’ types, so as to prevent unpleasant surprises as much as possible. A time and energy consuming effort, which can only be successful if you can count on the support of the population. Which is why they won’t take openly hostile parts of the country, and limit themselves to the Donbas, and the Black Sea coast, traditionally leaning towards Russia as the better option when compared to the ‘Financial Capitalists’ which made a mess of Russia after 1991, advising Yeltsin to submit to western bankers and ‘investors’. And this is simply an informed observation, replete with useful generalizations to arrive at the core, obscured by the ‘Fog of War’. It is not a value judgement.
Jake
in this plan you describe, you mention ” the NeoNazis who are in charge”.
Do you present this from a Russian point of view or do you actually believe the NeoNazis are in charge in Ukraine ?
Borko, I present it as seen by the Russians, and those Ukrainians who feel their country was taken from them in 2014, through a coup which left them without proper representation. It is reflected in this concept of denazification heralded by the Russians when they started their special military operation. To understand what they are after, I prefer to stick to their stated goals, instead of replacing those with some kind of fiction about conquering all of Europe before the end of the year, cooked up by some intelligence agency, and adding fictitious deadlines and plans which later prove to be a deadly mistake, when we prepared for the wrong kind of conflict, in the wrong place, bringing the wrong kind of weapons.
The thing is this present situation in kherson has the hallmarks of great heroics
1,big river
2.troops trapped
3.bridges down but not out
4.pontoon ferries…..whats not to love about pontoon ferries
5.great name …”kherson” perfect for a movie.
The battle of Kherson.
better than the battle of the bulge.which is a problem i have.
Short poem I wrote
When summer turns to fall
Come the winter rain
The eagle will call
To the folded crane
Wait for me at waters edge
We shall meet again.
“Kill them until they stop coming!
Conventional metric for offensive force ratio is 3:1. Granted Ukrainians can achieve local superiority sometimes, but their history of mobile defense does not invite confidence for breakthrough exploitation. So in general, Ukraine will need to pour much into Kherson to succeed.
Dien Bien Phu held out for 57 days, and the Vietnamese had much better force ratios.
Jimmy
That ratio was assumed by the US Army in the 1879s because that is what they had needed to beat the Confederates.
PL
Thank you. I have learned something this morning. Still the number must be approximately right. I don’t recall ever seeing it challenged before.
PJ,
Bridge damage often looks worse than it appears. The hardball of a bridge is a wearing surface with little structural value. There is a world engineering group (forgot the name) that tracks all bridges…materials, capacity. Once that is known, a real assessment can be made with an engineering team on the ground. It can’t be done with aerial shots unless it’s clear it’s broken.
One should of course trust everything that the British Defence source says.
Actual photos of the bridge show that minor holes (1ft -2ft across with rebar showing through) have been caused in the bridge roadbed, but that the structure is perfectly sound. The bridge is 4 lanes wide and traffic is driving around the holes.
However the picture in the article is taken from “Defence.blog.com” and the page is now “404 not found” but the caption is ‘Light Armoured Vehicle based on the LAV 6.0 chassis arrives in Australia’.
Apart from that I am sure that both the article and the comments are absolutely factual.
PJ London
So the bridge structure is perfectly sound and the Russians have started operating a makeshift ferry (towed pontoon section) right next to it. I guess they just like boating.
Barbara Ann,
Well they sure couldn’t have the combat engineers sitting around doing nothing, so a make work project….. And then there’s the great “Z”-ball express shuttling supply trucks across that bridge?How many fully loaded trucks at a time and what does putting the left front tire into a shell hole at 30km/hr do to the tie rod ends?
Nobody knows unless they are in the situation. I’ve crossed bridges in worse shape than those bridges with a company of MRAPS. Granted, the bridge did start shaking pretty good but we widened the gap and crossed easily. In my defense I did instruct to keep the spacing pushed out but Soldiers always want to tailgate for some reason. One good earfull on the horn though they cut it out.
Take a careful look at the pictures. They also broke the bottom of the box trusses that support the road, and I think they are no longer structurally sound.
Deermen or frogmen.That is the question
If you love Israel, you will love a Ukraine that defeats Russia
“… the amount of telegraphing of a coming offensive put out by the Ukrainian government. That was contrary to every other move made by their military.”
funny about that, huh? I was a bit surprised folk took Zelensky’s word on upcoming operations so seriously. in war, it might be more sensible to follow what an army does rather than what a politician says. interesting how much pressure Ukraine is putting on Crimea (that jewel of the Russian Empire). Putin made it famous, now his army must defend it (more to the point, Vlad) over whatever else it was hoping to do. & the Little Big Emperor is upset the US is purposely dragging out the war. how undiplomatic of us. while some aged Russian rock star is fined for expressing anti-war sentiments in a concert (to the cheers of the crowd). seems to rhyme w/ VN, but I’m probably suffering from excess importance of mine own times.