Our country will never be the same again. The convoy of Wagnerites was not moving on the asphalt – it moved through the hearts of people, cutting society in half. We prayed to God that the enemy would not take advantage of the situation and throw all the resources into battle – we would almost have no chance. We already have a hard time, but yesterday everything hung on a very thin thread. And those who understood what was at stake and how close we came to a defeat will never understand those who shouted glory to the Wagnerites, rejoicing that someone challenged the authorities.
I said yesterday: this is my fourth putsch in my life. Each of them began under a plausible pretext, and after each the space changed not in our favor. Those who hold the front have been stabbed in the back. Those whose lives depend on holding the front experienced the darkest hours yesterday, despite the fact that every day these people are under the influence of war. Millions of people yesterday experienced horror at the thought that everything they had endured over the past years would be crossed out in one day. These millions will never be able to look into the eyes of those who hooted at the sight of falling helicopters shot down yesterday without judgment.
Comment: With these words yesterday, Alexander Khodakovsky summarized the lasting results of Prigozhin’s short lived mutiny/coup attempt. Khodakovsky was one of the original military and political leaders of the DNR back in 2014. Today he again commands the Vostok Battalion or Brigade. I agree with him. This is the only lasting result of Prigozhin’s attempt at a grand Pristina Dash.
Fortunately for all, both Prigozhin and Putin backed down from an all-or-nothing shooting war. A shooting war in the streets of Moscow, even if it only lasted a day or two, would have been bad, not just for Prigozhin and Putin, but for all of Russia and the rest of the world. Russia has her nuclear arsenal, a vast, armed security apparatus and a military battered and traumatized by its botched invasion of Ukraine. Who would end up in charge of what would be a frightening unknown if Putin’s hold on the regime cracked.
As it turned out Prigozhin’s call for Russian units to come to his side went largely unanswered except for a notable few including the entire 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade. He could not be assured of capturing Moscow or even major facilities within Moscow with the few thousand of his Wagner mercenaries that were driving north from Rostov. As it turned out, the Russian Army didn’t rally en masse to Putin’s aid. A lot of units, including the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, were taking a wait and see attitude. Left with his Rosgvardia who are far more adept at beating up kids and old people than facing combat hardened troops, Putin wasn’t assured of a quick victory, either. Thus the compromise with no more than a couple of dozen casualties, some diminished reputations and a wounded and perhaps questioning nation.
TTG
Note: There are plenty of partial chronologies of events and even more analyses out there. Many of them are little more than guesswork, rumor collections and wishful thinking. Take your pick. I do recommend a few essays by Tom Cooper as a good place to start.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-24-june-2026-prigozhins
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/civil-war-in-russia-24-june-2023
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/russian-civil-war-24-june-2023-the
https://twitter.com/santiagoaufund/status/1673167943956307969?s=21
IMO, it is next to impossible to know what’s actually going on. Lotsa half-baked conjecture out there.
28APR2023 : ‘ How a successful Ukrainian spring counteroffensive could lead to Putin’s downfall and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s elevation to president’
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3976051-could-a-successful-ukrainian-spring-counteroffensive-lead-to-putins-downfall-and-yevgeny-prigozhins-elevation-to-the-presidency/
Another one from Yahoo OCT of 22′:
‘Putin could be overthrown and replaced by someone even more extreme, former UK spy chief warns’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-overthrown-replaced-someone-even-worse-sir-alex-younger-083732732.html
And another from CBS in May: ‘Wagner Group boss, “Putin’s butcher,” says Russia at risk of losing Ukraine war and facing a “revolution”:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-wagner-group-prigozhin-putins-butcher-ukraine-war-russian-revolution/
Despite whatever was suppose to happen not happening the media is still saying Putin is weakened because of it not happening. And when is this offensive going to punch a serious hole right through Russian defenses and deep into Eastern Ukraine…meh.
I don’t care about either side in this pointless conflict but anyone who believes anything western media says anymore has been psycop’d to a level of brainwashing that is not reversible. Permanent brain damage.
Ukrainians have been fighting for independence from Russia for 100 years. It’s not pointless to them or the millions of Russians who believe Ukrainians s/b subordinate. Slavic Europe knows what’s at stake. The US spent a gazillion dollars, lifetimes, and national commitment to keep Brit., West Ger., France, Spain, Italy, and Greece free from Russian domination. Was that pointless? If you cant read b/t the lines of the lying western press and their lying gov’ts it’s on you. As Americans did in ’75, Ukrainians declared themselves free men in ’91. That is very pointed.
100 years? It’s called the bloodlands for a reason. I’ve researched this topic in depth so if you think you are going to make this claim without a counter you are wrong.
The Ukraine region has switched hands many times spanning over 100’s of years with many fights among themselves. It’s not some group of people with a common bond and culture.
More importantly though it has no impact on the United States. Neither does Russia. Let Europe figure it out. Believe it or not they have been around a lot longer than the US.
They have been figuring it out for thousands of years. Stay out of it unless you are going to pick up a gun and go over then then yes. You should do that but you know and I know you will never do it. You want others to do it which is pathetic. No. You go over there right now and do something if it’s so important. You won’t because it’s not important.
Your so right. That’s why I questioned America’s obligation to defend against communist oppression. I did pick up a gun to defend western Europe; 55 years ago. Took 3 years from my life but no biggee. Did you think defense of Western Europe freedom was worth it? We probably s/h left that to the Europeans to decide? Yes lots of armies passed through Ukraine over the years as they’ve passed over all parts of the world to conquer and oppress. So I could have included all Europe since the fall of Rome and said those Europeans have been killing each other for a 1000 years. What would that prove? I said 100 years for a reason. The “serious” movement for Ukrainian independence from Austria/Russia began just b/f WW I. I d/n think it helped explain the current war to look earlier. As to your comment on “the same group of people with the same common bond of culture etc” Putin agrees w/you. Those Ukrainians are confused he says; they’re really Russians but don’t know it. Tell the guy blown to bits in Bakhmut he was not Ukrainian. I tend to be a libertarian so my ideas about foreign affairs is to stay away. Unfortunately the year is 2023 and (did you see the airlines are predicting a 90 minute flight to London in the next 10 years!) technology keeps pulling people closer together. It’s no longer a good idea to bury hed in sand.
The arguement about the region’s history misses the point. Look at what is happening in Ukraine today. All the Western support in the world doesn’t create the kind of national identity that the Ukrainians live every day. That is the spirit of a nation, strong and proud. We once, not so long ago, felt that here in America. We can get that back, I feel, and supporting Ukraine could help us with that. But the idea that the US doesn’t care about the doings of the world is such incredible concern trolling. The United States of America is a global power, and will remain a global power.
Babelthuap –
In just a few weeks Ukraine’s counter-offensive has liberated 50 square miles of territory in the south. Not much true, but it’s much more than Putin was able to capture in a years worth of fighting in Bakhmut. And it now looks that Russian troops in Bakhmut are now giving up a bit of that hard fought ground.
Regarding your western media comment, I rarely read them.
But it is plain to see that your link to The Hill is labeled an “opinion”. Opinions are like a$$holes, everybody has one is what the old Gunny taught me 60 years ago.
Your Yahoo link is labeled as news but there are no facts cited, it is again just someone’s viewpoint i.e. an unlabeled OpEd or opinion piece.
Your third link to CBS is just quoting what Prigozhin himself has said. He put out a video where he was saying those same things. Perhaps you think it was a phonied up video – or a bad translation by CBS? Both are possible, but then Prigozhin has made similarly brash statements in the past against the leadership in the Russian Army and the MoD.
Babelthuap – Oops! Make that 115 square miles more of Ukrainian land liberated from Putin as of this morning.
It makes Prigozhin’s Bakhmut into nothing but a pimple on a big man’s arse.
TTG, sorry but that horse has already left the barn
“Who would end up in charge of what would be a frightening unknown if Putin’s hold on the regime cracked. ”
Putin’s hold already cracked with the failure of operations in Ukraine. Maybe even before. People were surprised with the speed and extent of the collapse of the USSR. The power drained away from the Kremlin long before the Berlin Wall fell.
Poppa Rollo,
How is that Ukrainian counter offensive going?
Better than I expected given the in depth trench system created by the Russians. One thing the Russians know it is how to created defensive lines. Kursk of WWII fame is some 170 km east of the Ukraine border. It is a surprize that Putin has not invoked the massive tank battles that effectively destroyed the Nazi advance.
What did Cassius Clay say about Smoke’n Joe? “Rope a dope”? Seems appropriate here. Putin ‘survives’ a mutiny/rebellion/assassination attempt and unlike all the others allegedly knocked off by Vlad, this guy moves “his” entire mercenary outfit to now nuclear armed Belarus. Those are Belarus’ weapons now, not endangered by the mutineer, or NATO either? No? They are still Russian and still under the command of the guy who ‘just’ survived the latest round of “Don’t talk about Biden’s corruption” or “Ukraine’s offensive” news? Right. Anyway, did you hear about the IRS whistleblower?
Fred,
Prigozhin is the one supposedly on his way to Belarus, not his Wagner Group. They’re supposed to be heading back to their field camps. As for those nuclear weapons in Belarus, you’re right that they remain in Russian control much like our nuclear weapons spread all over Europe. The closest Prigozhin got to nuclear weapons was when his mercenaries passed by the Borisoglebsk nuclear weapons storage facility in Vorozensk.
TTG,
Wagner marched, ok drove, all the way to Moscow, or Rostov-on-Don, and then just did a u-turn and went right back to where they started. Except for the Condottiere, who is having a little vaction, not knowing how Putin treats those who betray him. How’s the UA offensive going, wouldn’t this be a great time to double-down on a successful campaign now that the enemy is in disarray?
Fred,
Prigo’s road trip had very little, if any, effect on Russian forces in Ukraine. If it went on for a while, his occupation of Rostov on Don and Voronezh would have cut those forces off from their supply lines. Of course, Prigo had no intention of impeding the continued occupation of Ukrainian territory.
The counteroffensive continues as planned. Certainly not as fast as many hoped, but it continues. There is now a bridgehead on the southern end of the destroyed Antonovskiy Bridge. The Ukrainians continue to advance north, south and now even in Bakhmut. And for some odd reason, the Russians are choosing to continue launching costly counter attacks across open fields rather than using their defensive positions to whittle away the attacking Ukrainian formations. Plus, over half the Ukrainian reserve units, including most of the armor brigades, have yet to be committed.
TTG,
“half the reserve units” means what? They’ve already committed half of their reserves as well as the front line units? That sounds like they are got butchered for some nebulous gains of shell-holed farm land. And a ‘bridgehead’ on the opposite shore of a mile wide river with a broken bridge in their rear. They’ll be in Sevastopol any day now I’m sure.
Fred,
As of a week ago, 3 of the 12 new, Western equipped brigades have been committed. That does not include the 8 “Offensive Guard” assault brigades raised by the Ministry of the Interior. I think those brigades are meant to secure rear areas after the counteroffensive forces move on. They’re more of a civil defense/rear area security force.
My uneducated guess as to why the Russians are attacking Ukrainian troops in the open fields is because I’ve felt from the outset that the reason Ukraine attacked directly into the thickest defenses in the region was to get the Russians fixed in their trenches. Once there, the Russians wouldn’t have anywhere to go. By keeping them ‘fixed’ the UA can methodically continue looking for the sweetspots for more opportunistic breakthroughs.
cobo,
Could be, but the defensive fortifications are extensive. I just don’t know how good they are. Ukrainian drone operators don’t seem to have any trouble dropping grenades into those trenches.
Khodakovsky was born in ’72 and claims this is the fourth putsch he has seen. I count seven. He must have forgotten about the Putin’s failed February 2022 coup d’etat attempt in Kyiv, the November 2021 attempt also in Kyiv, and the successful February 2014 coup in Crimea’s Simferopol.
He is a bit of a poet with that line “The convoy of Wagnerites was not moving on the asphalt – it moved through the hearts of people,…” He’s channeling Pushkin or Akhmatova maybe?
If Putin loses power he will be replaced by a group of nasty Duginites. People should be careful what they wish for.
There’s is a spear being formed,Just takes time.
When summer turns to fall
Come the winter rain
The eagle will call
To the folded crane
Wait for me at waters edge
We shall meet again
“Believe it or not they have been around a lot longer than the US.”
Silly argument.
Wondering if anyone here has seen what some are calling a ‘hit piece’ Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?
Though I am not a fan of the WSJ, this is interesting – at the 5 minute mark they begin to describe the shell companies and money laundering done by the Wagner Group. This, if true, would go a long way toward an accounting of the ‘off the books’ money trails that have to exist.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shadow-men/shadow-men-inside-wagner-russias-secret-war-company/29735C37-0B4E-4E70-8E8C-C46FB711370C
It is most interesting (to me) that Progozhin, alone, is going to Belarus. This will leave the remainder of the Wagner Group to have to meet that July 10th deadline (set by the Russian Defense Ministry) for all mercenaries to sign on with the RM, I believe?
If the Wagner Group, and other mercenary groups, get absorbed into the Russian Military, what, I wonder, happens to all the financial and property holdings of the Wagner Group?
Hmmmm…
kj
KjHeart,
I didn’t see that WSJ documentary before. Thanks for the link. Seems pretty much on the money to me, about what you’d expect from a crooked Russian olgarch with a lot of hired guns and the blessing of the Kremlin. I’m sure a Wagnerite or anyone adoring Prigozhin or Wagner Group would see it as a hit piece.
The Kremlin will continue to rely on Wagner in Africa, Syria and elsewhere. They’ll probably just pass control to other crooked oligarchs.
It would be most interesting to find out how much of a ‘nest egg’ Prigozhin has kept for himself (we may never know).
Also interesting are the reports that the ‘neocons are making deletions. en masse, of ‘Pro-Prigozhin or Pro Wagner’ tweets, and comments since this WSJ story came out.
kj
This political cartoon about Prigozhin came out this week
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a6eb36d-195a-4593-b00a-02b2c9b86547_704x508.png