Putins Speech

The English text of President Putins speech of 14 June is now available at the link below.

This long document explains, from the Russian point of view, how we got to where we are today. It also explains Russias position vis a vs the West and of course Washington.

In my opinion, one cannot intelligently discuss the current situation without reading and understanding this speech.

Having read this and noting the rejection of Russias latest peace proposal, I have just cancelled our planned European holiday. That cancellation , by the way, is not because I believe I will survive coming events by staying here but because I think it is preferable to die instantly in a nuclear exchange compared to alternatives such as being submerged in a tsunami of refugees.

Cheese paring and arguing about the minor details of a third rate made up country that is Ukraine are irrelevant.

http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/74285

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108 Responses to Putins Speech

  1. F&L says:

    You guys might want to spend 5 minutes watching and listening to the President of Serbia here – he is eloquent. From yesterday. His words are very pessimistic.
    I’m personally not quite as pessimistic on the particulars maybe because I’m by nature very pessimistic which may act to immunize me, similarly to how constant nibbling on poison ivy is said to render immunity to that plant. But I can’t really imagine the people involved and in charge really want to destroy everything. Maybe a few crazies, but are there any that utterly destructive – such as Hitler? I’d rate Bojo as the craziest of them all and Bolton as almost as bad. 5 minutes – Vucic’s English is quite OK, but subtitles are provided.

    https://x.com/kimdotcom/status/1802300184619348288

  2. Jose says:

    First, Happy Father’s Day to All…

    “You only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” — Adolf Hitler

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/The-New-Era-Democracy.jpeg

    Select all the text, right-click, go to

  3. Muralidhar Rao says:

    Walrus thank you for the post. I read his speech, it seems to me every time Ukraine rejects the peace proposal from Putin (Like him or Hate him), the only thing that happens next proposal is even worse for Ukraine. I don’t understand with all the multibillion dollars spent on intelligence why the west can’t see the hand writing on the wall? If the Ukranian Govt is recruiting 60 year olds into the military (I have seen the photo’s of such recruits on the battle field, possibly fake but with a declining population base in Ukraine also it is possible) what are the chances of winning the battles? I truly feel sorry for the Ukranian people who are thrown into this meat grinder and I pray for saner heads to prevail to stop this massacre. Thanks again.

  4. Jovan P says:

    Were you again planning to visit Croatia?

    • walrus says:

      Regretfully not this time. A wedding to attend and then a slow stroll through parts of Italy revisiting certain places that have made an impression on me.

  5. elkern says:

    Thx. Speech text (in English) also available at Moon of Alabama. It’s long, but meaty.

    The first part pushes for developing a new Eurasian security system, with emphasis on working with/through existing international groupings (CSTO, CIS, SCO, etc) but also saying that it’s time for a [new?] larger system. Putin welcomes European participation, warning that “the main threat to Europeans lies in the critical and ever-growing, now practically total dependence on the US”.

    This all sounds reasonable and inevitable to me. I hope Europe finds a way to become relevant as a political bloc, but I fear that the mistakes of the last few decades make this unlikely.

    The second part is a long review of Russian perspective on the war in Ukraine from 2014 through present, followed by a declaration that Russia will gladly negotiate an end to the war if Ukraine withdraws forces from Donetsk and Lugansk “People’s Republics”, plus Kherson, and Zaporozhye “regions”. (Note: the word “regions” rather than “oblasts” might imply some wiggle room for Ukraine withdraw beyond the Dniepr, keeping the western/northern parts of those Oblasts? OTOH, that could be a translation glitch).

    Russia won’t consider [temporary] ceasefire talks.

    The review of the history of the current conflict is long, especially since Putin goes through it twice, for some reason. Russia views it as a war of independence for the Donbass, which I find reasonable. Most of it fits what I’ve heard before, but there was one interesting tidbit – which Putin emphasized as having “not been publicly mentioned before” – implying that Obama & Putin had a verbal agreement to peacefully resolve the Maidan protests (Yanukovich to stand down the army, protesters to end occupation of Gov’t buildings):

    “…in the same hours on February 21, a conversation took place at the initiative of the American side with my American counterpart. The essence was as follows: the American leader unequivocally supported the Kiev agreement between the authorities and the opposition. Moreover, he called it a real breakthrough, a chance for the Ukrainian people to ensure that the violence did not go beyond all conceivable limits.

    “Furthermore, in the course of the conversations, we jointly worked out the following formula: Russia will try to persuade the then President of Ukraine to behave as restrained as possible, not to use the army or law enforcement against the protesters. And the US, accordingly, it was said, would call on the opposition to calm down, to free administrative buildings, so that the streets would calm down.”

    Putin claims that Yanukovich stuck to the agreement (moved the army out of Kiev) but the protesters did not, leading to the successful coup. The surprise to me here is his claim that his “US counterpart” – presumably Obama!? – agreed to the formula, which opens up a new question: did Obama knowingly make and break that agreement, or did Nuland (or whoever) disobey/overrule the President?

    • Muralidhar Rao says:

      “did Obama knowingly make and break that agreement, or did Nuland (or whoever) disobey/overrule the President?” Either way does it really matter? We proved beyond a shadow of doubt that our word doesn’t mean a thing. With such reputation why would the rest of the world trust us? Such a sad state of affairs in such a great country.

      • TTG says:

        Muralidhar Rao,

        You and many others seem to deny that the Ukrainians themselves had any agency in these events. Granted, as Nuland admitted, we spent 5 billion dollars over 10 years to influence events, but it was Ukrainians who orchestrated both the Orange Revolution and the Maidan Uprising. The same thing happened throughout Eastern Europe. It was the Poles who made the transition from being a reluctant puppet of the Kremlin to what she is today. Yes, we invested time and money in the Polish people, but it was the Polish people who made the transition. It is Ukrainians who resisted the Russian invaders since February 2022 and they did so of their own volition. If we abandon them or tell them to stop resisting, they will not stop resisting. The nature of the resistance will change, but it will not stop.

        • Fred says:

          TTG,

          So money did what and was used to fund whom? Homeless and unemployed or political operatives who organized “the people”? Why did they need our money at all if their cause was “just”?

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Don’t know. A lot was used for infrastructure development much like across Eastern Europe. Germany spent 2 trillion just for the reunification efforts with East Germany. I do remember the US paid for “democracy” and anti-corruption training camps back before the Maidan Revolution. That kind of training was also done in the Baltics. The right wingers at the time were avid students of that training. Back in the 2015 timeframe, I surmised that training amounted to “how to conduct civil resistance” training.

        • elkern says:

          TTG – yes, the Ukrainians on the ground may well have ignored US attempts to manage the situation and taken the initiative to finish the coup when they saw the opportunity.

          My original question is still relevant to understanding important details of how “our” government functions (or doesn’t).

          And it’s also still relevant to Putin’s deep distrust of US Foreign Policy, which was probably one reason he included that story in Friday’s speech. (Other reasons would be to (1) remind other countries that reassuring statements by US Presidents aren’t to be trusted, and (2) to [continue to] inflame Americans’ distrust of our own government).

  6. F&L says:

    Y’all might want to check this out and see if it sounds sensible to you. First I’ve heard of it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/16/russian-soldier-says-army-suffering-heavy-losses-in-kharkiv-offensive

    • Eric Newhill says:

      F&L,
      I think the story is probably true. 12 out of 100 surviving is very likely for a unit at the tip of the spear being thrust directly at fortified enemy defenses. During WW2 – so similar combat – there were US infantry units in both the European and Pacific theaters that suffered 120% casualties, and yet, it should be noted, the US won their campaigns. That said, the heavy casualties rates may not be common to all units. I really don’t know and we have pro-Russia “analysts” saying that only Ukraine is experiencing such casualty rates ubiquitously – and pro-NATO “analysts” claiming low Ukraine rates and a slaughter on the Russian side. The propaganda and wishful story telling is massive on both sides.

      Btw, How did those US units have > 100% casualties? The answer is replacements, who became casualties themselves. Replacements were actually killed and wounded at a faster rate than experienced combat veterans because training was not as thorough as the war dragged on and there really is no training that teaches all of what is needed to survive and be effective in combat other than being in combat and surviving long enough to learn.

      So the Russians complaining about training are probably more or less truth telling as well. As I have been saying, it is clear that Russia didn’t plan properly for the SMO becoming a real war and, when caught by surprise, had to quickly introduce new conscripts into the meat grinder.

      Interesting that there was a protest consisting of 300,000 mothers. Another point I have been making is that Ukraine is losing, but if they can hang on, they can wear Russia down to the point where Putin cannot force more loss on the Russian people. His appeal for peace indicates to me that Russia is nearing that point and has assessed that Ukraine is not ready to collapse. Those who want to believe that Putin is calling for peace b/c he’s a good guy are nuts (see what I call the anti-US peanut gallery; e.g. Johnson, Moon of Alabama, Ritter, Martyanov and various other whiners and BS artists plying their schtick to ignorant US hating hordes)

      • walrus says:

        Eric, I take exception to “Anti – US” it is perfectly patriotic to speak up if you think that an Administration policy is wrong.

        By “wrong”, I mean against our own best interests. I happen to think that risking nuclear annihilation as well as spending American treasure on Ukraine as well as squandering our political capital on a conflict we created is not in our own best interests, and after all, “We the people” are the Government.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Walrus,
          Of course it is our right to criticize our government – the individuals in it and their policies. I do it all of the time. We should speak up. The republic can’t endure if we remain silent.

          It is entirely something else to heap praise – even worship – on an adversarial foreign dictator as somehow superior and endowed with extraordinary nobility because you don’t like our policies.

          • walrus says:

            Eric, I care not whether Putin is a pederast or anything else. The facts of the matter are that he is the preeminent leader of his age, so far, in that he doesn’t bull^%$% and by all economic accounts, he has vastly improved the quality of life for the Russian population. Personalities are not important.

            Comparisons of Biden and Putin or Lavrov and Blinken are unflattering.

            …..or,as Lincoln famously said “Find out what General Grant drinks and send it to my other Generals”

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Walrus,
            Obviously Biden is a senile stuffed political animal (the taxidermist is falling down on the job lately) that some serious deep state crooks have propped up as an insult to all of us. Obviously, the corrupt state controlled media helped him get elected and I have serious doubts he legitimately earned 81 million votes. Obviously Trump is being persecuted by the deep state. Obviously the Europeans have lost their collective mind on a number of issues. Obviously, the west has been influenced by socialism and Islamic propaganda. Obviously, excessive taxation and regulation (+bribes from China) has caused US manufacturing to go overseas and obviously the education system is producing spoiled dummies that are so obsessively concerned with gender and racial identity that they have no skills for life in the real world and probably voted for stuffed Biden b/c Biden will pay for them to neuter themselves.

            Want me to continue with a list of woes involved in the degeneration of western civilization? I can go on for a while and in more detail.

            But guess what? None of that makes Putin a good guy (nor Xi nor some Muslim terrorists).

            If Putin has made Russia a better place than it was when he stepped into office, and he has, then good for him and good for Russia. I am not a Russian and neither are you and Putin is not an American. He doesn’t work for me; never will – nor should he.

            What it all means is exactly what a rational person would conclude. We need to get our nation back on track so we can be successful and fight off the evil influence of rivals like Russia, China and Islam – all of whom are looking out for their own interests, which are not our interests.

            I really don’t understand how all of this becomes jumbled up in peoples’ heads; like our government is screwed up so those other countries are good and we should let them have their way! That is the kind of crap Larry Johnson, et al are paid to sell. He definitely has found a market niche with plenty of customers on the left side of the Bell Curve.

          • Muralidhar Rao says:

            Sir according to your analysis if our adversary is smarter than us and plans his moves way ahead of time we have no choice but to demonise him and indulge in name calling like he is a bully a dictator on and on. Please tell me when the whole establishment gangs up and tries to send their political opponent (Trump by the way I neither support him nor despise him) are sane people supposed to shut up and follow the establishment?

          • TonyL says:

            Eric Newhill,

            “That is the kind of crap Larry Johnson, et al are paid to sell. He definitely has found a market niche with plenty of customers on the left side of the Bell Curve”

            It’s incredibly bad form and petty to bad mouth other people behind their back. Lary is not here to defend himself. So stop obsessing.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Muralidhar Rao,

            “..according to your analysis if our adversary is smarter than us and plans his moves way ahead of time we have no choice but to demonise him and indulge in name calling like he is a bully a dictator on and on.”

            I never said any of that. You’re trying to put words in my mouth (or in my keyboard).

            I disagree that Putin planned his SMO intelligently. In fact the opposite. His plan seems to have been that he’d scare Ukraine and Ukraine would surrender quickly. That’s a stupid plan, not a smart one. When the plan failed, Russia became unable to complete the mission.

            A “bully”? That bothers you? Seems like a deserved title for someone who invades his neighbors.

        • TonyL says:

          walrus,

          “it is perfectly patriotic to speak up if you think that an Administration policy is wrong’

          I sense that you’ve spoken for a lot of us here who are reading but not joining the debate.The sources for network news and even US/Europe Intelligence seem to be solely from Ukrainian government and neocons sites such as ISW.

          I still remmeber Col Lang’s “Drinking the Kool-Aid” masterpiece.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TonyL,
            Risible that you believe that Putin and Xi don’t serve up kegs of Kool-Aid as well.

          • TonyL says:

            Eric Newhill,

            Strawman much? I have never said anything about Russia or China government propaganda or lack thereof.

    • Yeah, Right says:

      From the article: “His unit had been decimated, he said, with only 12 out of 100 soldiers still alive as they came under constant Ukrainian fire and drones in Vovchansk, a prime target of Russia’s advances.”

      Perhaps the reporter needs to look up the dictionary definition of “decimated”.

    • Yeah, Right says:

      The main problem I have with the article is that the reporter is simply regurgitating hearsay.

      It is quite obvious that he hasn’t actually interviewed any of the soldiers that he quotes in that article but is merely quoting lines that have been said in various online videos:
      “Andreev said in the clip, ”
      “wrote Yevgeni, in one post on the social media platform VK”

      Not saying they are lying. Not saying they are telling the truth.

      But what I am saying is that Pjotr Sauer (who is based in Amsterdam, he is not based in Russia) is indulging in hearsay and, therefore, adds precisely nothing that can’t be found by going to the source material at “social media platform VK” or “Russian outlet Astra”

  7. Augustin L says:

    The Hoi Polloi need not worry, Ukrainian victory is just around the corner. After we’ve spent another 800 billion to defeat Russia, so say our Anglo-zionist masters. Very informative charts.
    https://archive.ph/lNIdX
    The inflated price of a cheeseburger will soon be 10$ (shadowstats say within 5 years – blackrock and co are licking their chops) to mirror the shells price hike… Russian seized assets won’t cover the shortfall, I expect NATO geniuses will surely print another 3 trillions after the Baltics are incinerated in a ball of fire. So much winning. Derp.

    • John Minehan says:

      Putin waited too long to do this.

      I suspect he risks loosing support from his enablers. If he tries to follow through on this, he follows Khrushchev’s lead out the door (or more likely Beria’s).

      The Russians don’t like the idea of people lightly hazarding the ship of state without real return,

  8. Eric Newhill says:

    Putin is a hoot, “The Western powers, led by the United States, believed that they had won the Cold War and had the right to determine how the world should be organised” Blah blah blah blah.

    Yawn.

    Btw – “Believed” they won the cold war?!?!? LOL. We did win it. Dear Putin, maybe you didn’t notice, but the Soviet Union collapsed.

    The SOB never mentions his pals in China with their “Belt & Road” taking over the entire planet from Eastern Europe, to Africa to Latin America. Nope. The US is the bad guy, LOL. We must be doing a lot of damage to Russian forces and little Putie Poot is very upset by that fact. So he singles out the US.

    I think some people need to stop their self-flagellation syndrome and thereby cease thinking that various adversarial leaders are possessed of special levels of honor, integrity and intelligence such that they should be believed and followed, as opposed to our own countries’. Sure, we have some real stupid sh!t heads in our halls power. Vote them out and demand better. But the grass is NOT greener on the other side. Russia and China (especially China) are led by some real vicious sh!t heads – and they are not your friends. The answer to our internal issues is not treason.

    Anyhow, IMO, Russia is posturing and making big noise b/c they are in trouble. The “SMO” is not going according to plan and they seek to get out of it. Russia is transparent in this.

    Why a country that has been invaded would just surrender to the invader escapes me entirely. Only an abject coward would make such a suggestion. As an American, I don’t care much about Ukraine, because I think we have our own big issues that should be the primary focus of our resources, but if lived in Ukraine, I’d fight Russia to my last breath. The arrogance of non-Ukrainians suggesting that Ukros throw up their hands is appalling; many are westerners on the Russian payroll, or tools being deceived by them.

    • walrus says:

      Eric, are you willing to bet the survival of Western civilisation on your assessment?

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Walrus,
        The possibility of nuclear war is my dilemma in thinking about the situation. On the one hand, I don’t think Ukraine is worth the current cost, let alone the risk of nuclear escalation. I see it as a conflict internal to slavs who mean nothing to me or my country. On the other hand, I think the west must demonstrate resolve to fight aggression by BRICS nations; not so much against Russia, who I don’t see as a threat to the US, but as an object lesson to the damn Chinese, who really are a huge threat to everything we value in the west; or used before their Tik Tok propaganda warped the minds of our youth. And then there is the Islamic element of our allied enemies who are only a lesser threat because they are neither as powerful nor organized as China.

        I’d rather die in a nuclear holocaust than be subject to China and/or Sharia. Fortunately, I don’t think that a choice I’ll have to face. The f’ing chinese think they can defeat us from within, as do the F’ing Muslims and Russians. That is their strategy, not nukes.

        IMO, they have a big surprise coming. The insane weaklings and traitors within western nations are going to be removed. It’s already happening in Eastern Europe and it looks like the trend is going to spread west through France, Germany and the US. The pendulum is swinging back toward sanity in everything from immigration to education to a return to Christianity.

        But if Putin wants to be psychopathically insane and do a first strike in lieu of appeasement, then inshallah. At least we weren’t cowards. Since, as Fred says, Australia won’t be a target, I hope there are diggers with more resolve than you. We will need them to repopulate the western world.

        There is no path to peace in appeasing the devil.

  9. Fred says:

    Walrus,

    “… I think it is preferable to die instantly in a nuclear exchange ”

    I thought you had a country estate down under? Why would the Russian Federation target Australia anyway, your country has less deployable military power than the UK and most of the rest of the continental NATO nations?

    • Muralidhar Rao says:

      Sir did you hear about nuclear fall out and the nuclear winter? I also heard I hope and pray I am wrong, if we are nuked, then we will nuke India and China so whatever survives here will continue our glorious hegemony over the rest of world. Such thinking is just insane.

  10. Keith Harbaugh says:

    The destruction of critical Russian command and control assets by weapons made in, or enabled by, America
    https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uses-patriot-missiles-down-russian-a50-spy-plane-us-2024-6
    is providing Russia with motivation to likewise destroy critical U.S. ISR assets.
    Can we expect Russia to “turn the other cheek” forever?

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Keith,
      Lol. Russia turn the other cheek?!?!? Oh that’s rare.

      Russia invaded a neighboring country who didn’t attack Russia first. The Russians are apparently as big a bunch of prima donna narcissists as the Arabs and Iranians who also believe that there should be no consequences for violent aggression, up to and including war. Such a deal! You get to start a war and your victims are not supposed to be attack you back, can’t hit your rear supply areas, command and control elements, etc. Nor should you ever lose land along the border after failing in the war yo started.

      This is what I mean by the “treason” of the peanut gallery; not being critical of one’s own government. There are many in the west who hate their own society so much that they cheer for and repeat the memes of the murderous likes of Putin, Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood and Iran.

      • Keith Harbaugh says:

        Reality check:
        A U.S.-made Patriot missile was used to shoot down a large Russian A-50
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_A-50
        back in January.
        Eric, tell me how Russia retaliated against the U.S. for their loss.

        It is worth recalling:
        In Vietnam, the U.S. armed the South Vietnamese to fight the USSR-armed North Vietnamese,
        but those arms were never used to attack the Soviet Union itself.
        Likewise, in Afghanistan we armed the mujahideen, who fought USSR-armed forces,
        but those arms were never used to attack the Soviet Union itself.
        Now we are truly in new and extraordinarily dangerous territory, with U.S.-made weapons directly attacking key parts of the Russian military complex,
        with large numbers of American politicians urging more strikes into Russia proper, damn the consequences.

        It would be a good idea to recognize the danger we are verging on,
        and the resulting pathetically high risk to reward ratio for America: huge risk, miniscule (for America) reward.

      • James says:

        Eric Newhill,

        It is the US that has allied itself with Wahhabist Islam not Russia. Syria is our #1 enemy in the Arab world and Syria is the only country in the region that has separation of church and state, and where the women dress as they please. Up to and including booty shorts. My apologies for clouding the issue with facts.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          What does US machinations in the MENA – whatever they might be. however misguided and whatever you think you know – have to do with Ukraine? You’re as scattered in your thinking as Walrus.

          Want a list of really bad actors that Russia has a history of siding with in their global efforts?

    • Fred says:

      walrus,

      quote appropriate as that movie was definitely a bomb.

    • F&L says:

      One of the most repellent things I’ve seen in years is the US media – for days and days on end – celebrating the so-called hostage rescue of 4 Israelis while 270 people including over 60 children were killed in the process. It’s nauseating.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Don’t take hostages and, if you do, don’t hold them in the middle of a refugee camp.

        The “refugees” didn’t know hostages were being held there? Really? Don’t be a member or accomplice of the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas/ Islamic Jihad, etc.

        I like how you skew everything in Hamas’ favor. No responsibility for them and 110% for Israel.

        You want to cry for these savages who would kill you too? Enjoy your tears by the bucket full. The rest of us are not going to be too troubled by 270 fewer savages on the planet (assuming that number is even factual)

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Fred,
          There’s rot and then there’s rot.

          You’re buying into the whole, “The guys you say are good guys aren’t perfect because blah blah blah anecdote or history [which may or may not be accurate] therefore the other guys are the good guys!” argument?

          • Fred says:

            Eric,

            No, I’m cognizant of the rot existing long before 2024 as is evident to all not fixated on current events.

        • Muralidhar Rao says:

          Sir I really admire your Humanity. May be you should claim to be a savior next. I say why not, with such astounding clarity of thought.

      • Fred says:

        F&L,

        Hamas numbers are the best. Like covid reporting or a jobs report, revised later. Meanwhile their Leaders are still safe and sound in Qatar.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Not only are Hamas numbers the best, Hamas bullets and rockets fired “spray and pray” style at IDF, in a crowded refugee camp, NEVER hit “civilians”. Only evil Jews are responsible when Palestinians are killed!!!!!

          • Fred says:

            Eric,

            Col. Lang observed the rot in Israel (and the IDF capabilities) and reported on it on SST and here. I think that hasn’t changed.

        • F&L says:

          Fred,

          “Kill one man and you’re a murderer; kill thousands and you’re a conqueror; kill them all and you’re a god.”
          – Dexter

      • Yeah, Right says:

        The number of civilians killed in that operation is indeed nauseating, as is the insistence of the MSM to avoid paying any attention to it.

        The other point that I find nauseating is the failure of anyone to address the fact – and it is a fact – that the IDF committed the war crime of “perfidy” when conducting that operation.

        They came out of that “Gaza Pier” zone, and they arrived at that refugee camp in…. aid trucks. The first indication that any civilian had that those aid trucks weren’t providing aid was when the IDF soldiers were disgorged from those trucks and started shooting.

        That’s perfidy. It is the very definition of perfidy.

        • TonyL says:

          Yeah Right,

          The IDF is bunch of thugs, only good for killing civillians, and quite creative in their cruelty. To me the worst kind of crime is using food as bait to kill off a starving population.

        • Fred says:

          Yeah, Right,

          Was Hamas’ attack on October 7th a war crime of “perfidy” or just an acceptable attack, excluding the civilian dead and all the hostages taken.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            The Hamas attack was a straight up act of murderous terrorism, a crime against humanity all in itself. There was no unlawful deception or perfidy involved.

  11. English Outsider says:

    This is an extraordinary time, Walrus.

    That blockbuster St Petersburg speech you link to is the final Russian ultimatum. That’s the message of the speech and it’s been reinforced since by major figures in Russia. Since it was prepared after a marathon round of diplomatic consultations between Russia and its allies and friends, Putin is not only setting out the Russian position. He’s also setting out a position the Chinese and other major countries are comfortable with.

    Since neither the West nor Zelensky will accept this ultimatum we can also start to see the outlines of the position after the Ukrainian defeat. That’s important too.

    Not for our Western analyst and experts. For them, Russia is on the ropes:-

    “Putin ‘is done’ as losses in Ukraine degrade Kremlin’s force projection | Peter Zeihan”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLncvexyDAI&ab_channel=TimesRadio

    “Putin could lose initiative as Ukraine stabilises Kharkiv and hits new targets in Russia”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjx9S6VbrtE&ab_channel=TimesRadio

    Such sites sometimes get half a million or more views apiece. The story told there is repeated on our big media outlets, TV and press, and further told ad infinitum on social media. It’s the reality we n the West live in.

    I regard this material as malicious and misleading. Twisted to the extent that it turns one’s stomach. Who are these people, who in such numbers and working so hard churn out carefully constructed lies? Does objectivity and integrity mean nothing to them?

    But that’s just my response. I’m one of the miniscule minority in the West who’ve been following sites such as SST for years and have, as it were, been inoculated against taking official propaganda at face value. For the great majority of people in the West, not just England, this is the type of material fed us in the various western electorates and taken as reliable analysis. Every day, every week, year upon year.

    No contest. The Western information war must be the most expensive information war ever undertaken and the most effective. To back it up NATO has the equivalent of divisions engaged in such work. How much the people at the top believe the nonsense is unclear. But it’s the truth for most of us. An entirely artificial reality has been created for us.

    Some time, maybe quite soon, that artificial reality constructed for us in the West will go head to head with the bleak reality set out in Putin’s St Petersburg speech. At present it’s unpatriotic to be aware of the discrepancies between the two realities. Only “Russian shills” in the West talk of it. But when it becomes impossible for all of us in the West to ignore the fact that we’ve been fed nonsense for so long, what will happen?

    • English Outsider says:

      Walrus! Mea Culpa. “Moscow Speech”, as you say in your article. Tashkent and St Petersburg press conference, Moscow speech. The three most important speeches this year so no excuse for muddling locations up.

    • Bill says:

      English Outsider

      “That blockbuster St Petersburg speech you link to is the final Russian ultimatum.”

      Ultimatum ?

      If the “ultimatum” is not met, what do you think Russia can do that it hasn’t done already ?

      Sure, it could use a few tactical nukes to take out the airfields and major logistics centers. Hell, it could even create a radioactive cordon sanitaire from the Baltics to the Black Sea. The US certainly would not engage in a full thermonuclear war over Eastern Europe.

      However, any use of nukes, however small, would result in Russia losing support in much of the world. Even countries that would like to support it like China would find itself heavily sanctioned if it tried. It would be game over for the Russian MIC and maybe for Russia in its current form.

      • English Outsider says:

        Nuclear’s a red herring. The Russians don’t need to use it because they’re winning anyway. President Biden has made it clear to the Europeans he’s not going to use it if the Europeans fool around and get their fingers burnt. TTG put that one to bed recently though not, I hasten to add, in those terms.

        Not quite a red herring. There’s always accidental. That’ll be a hell of a consolation if we all find ourselves frying. That it was just an accident.

        What will the Russians do if this ultimatum is ignored?

        Well of course it’s going to be ignored! The Russians know that perfectly well. They’re just putting down a marker.

        They’ll carry on with the war and likely absorb more territory. Probably not territory where the inhabitants would reject Russian rule.

        As for remnant Ukraine, the Russians won’t want to occupy it unless they’re forced to. It’s an economic black hole and would cost a fortune to maintain. Much of the population there is hostile to Russia so keeping order there would be an unwelcome chore and also very expensive. The Russians are probably hoping the Ukrainians will chuck out the puppet government currently running Ukraine and make terms.

        No idea whether that’s a realistic hope. We know very little about the true state of public opinion in Ukraine. But however the Russians manage to neutralise remnant Ukraine they’ll neutralise it.

        We can put money on that. If the Russians don’t neutralise remnant Ukraine your government and mine will continue using remnant Ukraine as a base from which to continue their “look no hands” missile attacks and to continue running sabotage and assassination missions into Russia. The Russians don’t want that.

        That why a temporary “freeze” to the conflict is a dead duck, also, for all the frantic talk, a “Two Korea” solution. Washington knows that perfectly well and is just trying to keep the thing going until after the American Presidential election. Dulce et decorum est pro President Biden’s election chances mori is the motto now for the Ukrainian PBI.

        Don’t know why the European politicians are also so adamant about keeping the war going. Running around like headless chickens is their thing right now so they probably don’t know either.

        So Putin’s ultimatum won’t be met – doubt it’s even listened to in Washington or Berlin/Brussels – and something like that will be the consequences.

        I screwed up calling it the St Petersburg speech. Got the locations mixed up. It’s Putin’s Moscow speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry. The most important speech since the SMO started though its contents have been obvious since that start. When the sanctions war failed this was how it was bound to go and don’t believe the politicians if they tell you they didn’t know it.

        Were you English you’d call ne a “Putin shill” for setting all that out. But you’re American, I think, so won’t. Thank God for America. One country at least where it’s still possible to tell truth and shame the devil.

  12. walrus says:

    E. O. perhaps the most valuable skill my school taught was what I think we now call “Critical thinking” or analysis. It was taught in the last two years of school when we were all 16 – 18. It was not part of a Government or University curriculum but it was led by our headmaster, Sir Brian Hone and I suspect derived from his Oxford undergraduate experience.

    An opinion piece would be given to the class – usually on a controversial subject of which there were plenty in 1966, communism was not yet dead and there was plenty of meat for us young bluebloods to get stuck into. What we were looking at was how the writer developed their theme; what real evidence they had, what was mere trickery – basically how the story was put together. But the most important qestion was then asked; why?

    Why was he writing like this? Did he believe what he was writing? What was his background and experience? What was the motivation? Was he trying to instruct? To excite? Did he have real evidence? Where was the logic chain? Where was the BS (usually in the opening sentence).

    Very little of the MSM writing these days passes those and nothing from ISW. I rarely bother trying to explain where the BS lies these days, it takes too long;

    For example our colleague Eric writes:

    “Russia invaded a neighboring country who didn’t attack Russia first. The Russians are apparently as big a bunch of prima donna narcissists as the Arabs and Iranians who also believe that there should be no consequences for violent aggression, up to and including war. Such a deal! You get to start a war and your victims are not supposed to be attack you back, can’t hit your rear supply areas, command and control elements, etc. ”

    Eric forgets the Golden Rule and fails to differentiate between Russian behaviour and American behaviour vis a vis our wars of Iraq I, Iraq II, Afghanistan, Syria, Serbia, Chechnya and our recent attempts to set the Caucasus alight.

    I don’t have enough time to argue with such foolery, no one has enough time.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Walrus,
      Golden Rule?

      WTF? Over.

    • Fred says:

      Walrus,

      “communism was not yet dead and there was plenty of meat for us young bluebloods to get stuck into.”

      It’s not dead now, either, and has plenty of bluebloods stuck on it.

  13. Eric Newhill says:

    and btw, way to swerved wildly onto irrelevant tangents.

    “…fails to differentiate between Russian behaviour and American behaviour vis a vis our wars of Iraq I, Iraq II, Afghanistan, Syria, Serbia, Chechnya and our recent attempts to set the Caucasus alight.”

    All the while preaching the golden rule AND critical thinking. Some jokes just write themselves.

    So Russia is justified in invading Ukraine because 19 years earlier the US invaded Iraq on false premises. Logic and golden rules must operate differently in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Afghanistan, Syria, Serbia, Chechnya? What about them?

    Afghanistan, seems to me the Russians were in there too – not to mention the Taliban harboring terrorists who attacked us. Ditto Chechnya.

    • James says:

      Eric Newhill,

      You asked about Afghanistan, Syria, Serbia, and Chechnya.

      The Soviet Union went into Afghanistan at the invitation of its government. Russia went into Syria at the invitation of its government – whereas USA invaded Syria (ie no government permission) and still has troops there. USA bombed Serbia and the Serbs are still made about it and quite like the Russians. Chechnya is part of Russia and according to international law it is nobody’s business but theirs.

      You were not real specific but it sounds like you were on the side of the Islamic terrorists in all four of these countries.

  14. d74 says:

    From Patrick Armstrong, https://patrickarmstrong.ca/author/gparmru/

    Listen to what he’s saying.

    Former British Ambassador to Russia Laurie Bristow:
    “My advice to all young diplomats and analysts [is that] if you want to understand Mr Putin’s foreign policy, listen to what he’s saying. You won’t like it, but you need to understand it, you need to listen to it. The place to start is the Munich speech in 2007.”

    Read the whole thing;
    And it’s dated December 30, 2023…

  15. F&L says:

    Is it real or is it Memorex? You decide. “Russian official says …” is a clever technique. I tend towards believing it though. It will get very interesting as the F-16s begin to appear in increasing quantities.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-says-ukraine-pouring-troops-into-contested-kharkiv-region-2024-06-17/

  16. F&L says:

    TTG,

    An enigmatic, brief message by Tatiana Stanovaya on her Eng language Telegram channel just now. No further comment. Maybe something is going on. She’s usually quite clear and has no problem making herself understood. Is this some sort of heads-up or am I counting flowers on the wall again?
    —————

    https://t.me/stanovaya/1795

    Collective leadership (internal, with elements of external supervision) is now established at the head of the Ministry of Defense. Segmentation of military power. A serious test for Belousov.

    • English Outsider says:

      F&L – on that, there are several newish aggregator sites, as I call them, that collect references from all over the place. “Simplicius” must sit in front of the screens all day and every day so he’s most useful for finding links and references one would probably miss oneself. Also knows his way around. Which most of us don’t when it comes to the Russian military. Somewhere in this lot there’s a reference to what appears to be a root and branch re-organisation of the Russian equivalent of our MOD.

      I took it as just more “parquet generals” or corrupt ones being moved out. The Russians getting themselves a lean mean fighting machine, all that. Part PR, part reality. When this is over they don’t want to find themselves lumbered with an all-consuming MIC. And there’s a general mood coming out of Russia that they want the old Oligarch days in the rear-view mirror. But you seem to be examining the possibility of a separate power structure emerging. Interesting to see which is right.

      https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-preempts-pointless-peace-powwow

      Don’t be put off by the fact it’s a pro-Moscow site, and somewhat celebratory at that. These aggregator sites, whatever axe they might be grinding, do save an enormous amount to time when trying to get an overall picture. And you can always follow Colonel Lang’s dictum if you reject the general thrust. Separate the information from the source. After all, it’s even possible to pick up useful information from the ISW. Occasionally.

      Couldn’t agree with you more on Gaza. Also unbelievable so many Western countries enabling or supporting the perpetration of atrocities. Wish the Colonel was still here. He’d be pretty brisk in his judgements on that, I think.

    • TTG says:

      F&L,

      I have no idea what she means by that. Maybe something about reorganization in the Russian MOD? As far as you counting flowers on the wall, that doesn’t bother me at all.

      • F&L says:

        TTG,
        What about watching Captain Kangaroo?

        • TTG says:

          F&L,

          I miss Captain Kangaroo. I really liked it when the Banana Man visited the Treasure House. I thought he was magnificent.

          BTW, I can’t get that song out of my head today.

  17. ked says:

    the risk of nuclear holocaust is no greater or lesser since both players fielded hydrogen bombs from the mid-’50s onward. its role in exciting the publics varies with the stresses that come & go. the liklihood of an unintentional exchange has been at least equal to the chances of purposeful usage. if people wish to wave the atomic flag, it would be far more impressive if they made as big a deal of the problem when the stress is low. otherwise, it’s just another bs side-game.
    however, Russia’s SMO has taught all non-aligned (& many aligned too) that it may behoove them to acquire retaliatory nuclear capability, given Ukraine’s surrendering its atomic weapons appears to have provided Putin comfort to be even more Putinish. in the coming decade, if & as nations elect to so arm themselves, the potential for mass destruction will certainly increase, while the balance of stupidity (between folly & error) will remain about the same.
    the takeaway from Putin’s speech (not to mention his MoD reorg & bended-knee Asian Tour) is that he’s running low on options. though undoubtedly there will be an October Surprise Option forthcoming.
    I’m beginning to understand why some people find trump’s moral turpitude irrelevant … morality of any sort by any players has no role in the Big Game. I guess that’s the price of Bigness.
    lastly, as we strain to exercise our moral, amoral & immoral muscles … how prepared are we to digest the deaths of thousands of innocent Americans (many children, of course) upon trump losing the election again? everyone good w/ that… for the cause? I guess it’ll be ok… hasn’t particularly bothered us to do anything about it so far.

  18. F&L says:

    Something else to watch for 5 minutes. It’s Zeihan who is exceedingly Anti-Russia, so keep that in mind. Remember, all the guys who Napolitano interviews repeat endlessly that Ukraine is crushed. Obviously I don’t know but my sense is that the Russians simply took their sweet time and may not be going much further because they simply don’t have “what it takes” as Eric Newhill has outlined in recent comments. What a pity Colonel Lang is no longer with us.

    Ukraine F-16s, Offensives, and Abject Humiliation || Peter Zeihan. (5 minutes.)
    https://youtu.be/UwDomFk2o84

  19. walrus says:

    Peter Zeihans shtick is demographics. “We will run out of young people to draw the water from the well”. That is all he has – delivered with complete confidence in a very engaging style, complete with very slick examples.

    It all sounded so familiar, now where did I hear such confident predictions before???

    Ah yes, it all comes back to me now – all those IT Gurus pedalling their methodologies and software paradigms! They sounded and spoke EXACTLY like Peter! Remember MBTI and neurolinguistics? How they were going to herald a golden age of human understanding and cooperation? Software architecture will make everything clear and transparent ($2000/h.), Object oriented programming and reusable code. Software engineering? Then of course there was Microsoft,very, very expensively crafted BS; I actually saw one of their events with real smoke and mirrors!,, So we should all be out of work by now.

    Zeihan glosses over migration, technology and human nature just for starters..

    • F&L says:

      I agree that Zeihan leaves much to be desired.

    • jld says:

      How they were going to herald a golden age of human understanding and cooperation?

      😀 😀 😀

      Not happening in whatever dimension, because EVERY conscious “agent” has his own perspective and none can have a full picture, only one supposedly beneficial to himself.

      Agency is a complicated matter.

      (off topic with respect to this thread but an astounding summary about life, biology, intelligence and consciousness)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8iFtaltX-s

      • jld says:

        An addendum.
        Not only this lasts 2 hours but it is best listened to at reduced speed. 🙂

        But I guarantee that it will blow your mind.
        (full disclosure, I follow Michael Levin on Twitter and he follows me back)

      • Eric Newhill says:

        jld,
        Exactly. Well said.

    • James says:

      walrus,

      Object oriented programming is actually pretty useful. I use it every day.

      Microsoft has been pretty well eclipsed by ‘open source’ and being an open source partisan I am pretty happy about that. There is a lot of snake oil in the software industry but there is less these days because nobody makes much money off of open source so.

      And I think that Zeihan still works for Stratfor. I don’t trust that guy as far as I can throw him.

  20. Barbara Ann says:

    TTG

    “The rest of us are not going to be too troubled by 270 fewer savages on the planet”

    This crosses the line. The victims in the instance included many women and children. Since when did turcopolier.com permit the glorification of the killing of civilians? Colonel Lang would be appalled. Please reconsider your editorial policy. If the offender needs to be banned I am willing to be banned also, if this serves the interests of balance. The integrity of the blog is worth it.

    • optimax says:

      Orson Wells in The Third Man, “Would you really feel any pity if one of those dots stopped moving forever? If I offered you twenty thousand pounds for every dot that stopped, would you really, old man, tell me to keep my money, or would you calculate how many dots you could afford to spare? Free of income tax, old man.”

    • TTG says:

      Barbara Ann,

      Eric Newhill has to live with the appalling words he writes and that particular sentence is appalling. I won’t ban, but I’ll delete comments and parts of comments a little more freely in the future.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        TTG,
        These are backwards maniacs that kill civilians on purpose and hold hostages in refugee camps. Then they spray fire all over their own camp, killing their own people. How many generations now have behaved this way? All of the jihadists were once children. That’s when their training and indoctrination began.

        If Israel went in there looking to kill children, I would condemn that. Jihadists killing their own children? People will naturally get on a high horse and signal their virtue around all they want. I don’t think it is a good that the children died; merely a fact of life in a culture controlled by Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood.

        I see some people here being pro-terrorist, driven by a hatred of Israel, think it is bad that there was a hostage rescue that involved shooting. I find that position both asinine and offensive.

        • TTG says:

          Eric Newhill,

          You’re describing Hamas and the Hamas auxiliary like the doctor and his lawyer son who housed the hostages, not all Muslims, not all Palestinians. I haven’t read any comments here praising them. What about all the Palestinians just trying to eke out a living and care for their families in the West Bank? Do you consider them all blood thirsty savages? Or the millions of Indonesian Muslims actually embracing the multi-ethnicity of their land?

          We also have the Jewish settlers preying on those West Bank Palestinian farmers, the IDF soldiers and maybe even units who have preyed upon, mistreated and killed Palestinian civilians for years? Or Netanyahu and his hardcore Zionist henchmen cheering on this behavior? Does that make all Israelis, or worse yet, all Jews bloodthirsty maniacs? Of course not. There are plenty of Jewish Israelis living with and working with Palestinians every day. Some actively seek to improve the lot of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. The IDF is establishing daily ceasefires in southern Gaza to allow aid to enter much to the chagrin of Netanyahu.

          You paint with far too broad a brush. I think you’re too intelligent a man to continue to engage in such ignorant behavior.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            We need to separate things like past war crimes, abusive foreign policy and empire expansion and keep them separate when looking at a specific incident. Alleged Israeli settlers’ crimes against Palestinians in the West Bank have no more bearing on the legality and morality of Hamas and the indoctrination of Palestinian children into a culture of hate than the US 2003 invasion of Iraq, under false pretenses, has on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. I struggle to even read all these arguments that Putin isn’t a bad guy because the US did – or supposedly did – X,Y,Z. Or Hamas (really the Muslim Brotherhood franchise in Gaza) is ok because Israel allegedly did this or that terrible thing. The Muslim Brotherhood and its “values” existed prior to the West Bank situation; among those values are “death to Israel”.

            Which brings us to the children in the refugee camp killed by Hamas holding hostages there and firing wildly in all directions when the IDF dropped by to rescue the hostages. Those children – however many there actually were – are steeped in Hamas/Muslim brotherhood savage ideology. That is part of the problem and, sadly, the Palestinians will never have a path to peace and prosperity until they leave that ideology and indoctrination behind.

            Am I painting with too broad a brush? Yes. Of course. The tragedy of war is that people who are innocent and/or trying to act out of love get caught up in it and killed along with everyone who willingly participates in the degradation. It’s not my brush, it is the brush of war, Always has been and always will be.

            Hamas is responsible for the dead women and children in the camp. They put hostages there – hostages captured during a bloody attack on innocent civilians including women and children – and they opened fired in he camp without concern for where all the stray rounds were going to hit. All of that is behaving like savages. Of course Israel came in to rescue hostages. They had to and they did the right thing.

            I regret wording my comment too flippantly. I was reacting (never a good thing) to addle brained comments suggesting that the IDF consists of blood thirsty savages that rolled into a refugee camp shooting up women and children because that is what the IDF does, Jew rat monsters that they are.

            Some comments seem to suggest that Israel should just forego fighting Hamas and Jihadi friends in Gaza and abandon the hostages b/c if a single Palestinian gets hurt in an operation, Israelis are murderers. IMO, that kind of demented moralizing lowers the quality of discussion as well.

          • James says:

            All,

            As someone who is neither a US citizen nor a veteran I will go ahead and point out that IDF operations in Gaza highlight the fact that the US military is the gold standard in how to do military operations professionally and ethically.

            The IDF does not have to give up on trying to rescue hostages but it would be nice if they would try and emulate the professionalism and high moral standards of the US military.

        • Keith Harbaugh says:

          “backwards maniacs that kill civilians on purpose”
          You do realize, don’t you, that there have been well-documented instances of Israel’s doing exactly that, to Palestinians?

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Keith,
            It’s not the societal norm in Israel like it is among the Palestinians.

            I reject the common (on the internet and among angry teenagers) argument that because a person, organization or society has faults it’s just as bad as the worst.

            The Palestinians are run by Hamas. The vast majority of Palestinians actually support Hamas. They dance in the streets when terrorists kill innocents. The indoctrinate their children to hate. Suicide bombers are considered their heroes.

          • Keith Harbaugh says:

            Please pardon the combination of my carelessness and a typo.
            The last sentence should be:
            “You do realize, don’t you, that there have been well-documented instances of some Israelis doing exactly that, to Palestinians?”
            There is an important distinction between “Israel” and “some Israelis”.

      • Bill says:

        “Eric Newhill has to live with the appalling words he writes and that particular sentence is appalling.”

        I don’t think Eric is too troubled about his words at all. He is probably quite proud of them.
        Why people keep engaging him in discussions is beyond me but he’s been hurting the reputation of this blog for months.
        Of course, he is able to keep doing that only because he is allowed to.

    • elkern says:

      Barbara Ann –

      Thank you.

    • TonyL says:

      Barbara Ann,

      Thank you for your comment.

    • mcohen says:

      Hi barbara ann.

      Whose idea do you think it was to grab the woman hostages.sinwar and co.?hmm.No the decision makers are female.They have the most chance of surviving in gaza.Hamas are just the foot soldiers.Gaza is straight up hive mentality.No doubt at all.I learnt this from the role of african woman in resistance.Intelligence gathering and decision making in guerrilla warfare in cases like gaza and the westbank is best run by woman.Ever hear the expression “shoot the woman first”.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoot_the_Women_First

      When i read about woman and children dying in gaza i wonder.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        mcohen,
        Somehow a lot of people in the West have developed a narrative about this situation in a foreign culture, in a foreign land, with which they are totally unfamiliar. These people are arrogant enough to believe that the narrative they created in their own heads really is the correct interpretation of the ink blot and anyone not accepting it is a monster.

        The interpretation is, naturally, a Western civil rights scenario in which an oppressor (Israel) has been victimizing an innocent weaker people (Palestinians). The most sympathetic among the victims are of course the women and children, but even terrorists are morphed into freedom fighters because they are resisting the oppressors. All history and all facts are filtered to confirm this narrative. Anything contrary is denied as evil propaganda, simply ignored or framed in some half-baked way so as to minimize it.

        Yes, of course the women encourage the men and teach the children to hate. Yes. of course the women are more vicious than the men in their attitudes. If the women wanted peace and prosperity for their children, they would cause the men act accordingly and teach the children a more positive message.

        In the western interpretation of the ink blots around the world, the “victims” never have agency. There is no decision they could make that might alter the course of events.

        The ink blot interpreters are actually terrible people – closet murderers – though they present themselves as morally superior. They always insist that that the victims in their story should kill the oppressors. That is the noble reaction. If the oppressors defend themselves and use violence to stop attacks by the victims, that just becomes more evidence that the oppressors are monsters. Everything is set up to be input that reinforces the narrative once it has started.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Also, it should be noted that Col Lang commented more than once that a teenager (child) or woman with a gun can kill you just as dead as a full grown man – and he’d seen it happen.

        • mcohen says:

          Eric
          Whats up my good man.Did you actually read the book i linked before you hit the wang dang

          You misunderstand me.This is the key passage in MacDonald’s book

          When the Vietnam War ended in 1975, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) replaced the Viet Cong as the heroic model. Groups purposefully went after targets with international significance, thrusting local conflicts on to the global stage.[3]
          From south east asia to the middle east.The west needs to change there stratergy on the role of woman in the military and there way of thinking Especially china.

  21. Wunduk says:

    Thanks for posting the speech’s text. I am sorry for you, Walrus, putting off a trip to Europe. We’ll be there when you have time again for us.

    On translation, I think someone asked whether it’s more lenient to write regions rather than oblast and I checked it. Putin remains maximalist: full territory of four Ukrainian provinces = regions = oblasts and permanent commitment not to enter NATO is the price for the offered armistice. He by the way notes in his speech that this goes beyond previous demands, claiming this to be due to changes in circumstance and the right to self-determination by the people in the occupied areas who voted to be part of Russia.

    Putin’s speech struck me not for the nuclear saber rattling, nor the routine reconstruction of history, such as the alleged April 2022 deal in Istanbul, but for what it announces as a new strategy focused on the Global South.

    This is borne out of frustration in 2022 when the General Assembly voted for Russia to abandon the SMO and withdraw from Ukraine with a crushing majority delivered in large part by the Global South. There was no lipstick that could make the votes of 23 February 2022 (141 vs. 7, 32 abstentions, 13 absent) nice. Nor did it get better in time: 2 March 2022 (141 vs. 5) and 12 October 2022 (143 vs. 5) resolutions declared that the staged referendums and attempted annexation are invalid and illegal.

    Putin in his speech courts the “Global South and East, Africa and Latin America” as allies, and makes the case that he is for an “indivisable Eurasian bloc” among the world’s sovereign states.

    Lavrov says at the start that”we are building up ties with the countries of the global majority, the global South, and the global East, redistributing our material and human resources accordingly and transferring them to those areas where they are most in demand.”

    So while the speech is many things, it is also an expression how strongly Russian foreign policy is pivoting to the Global South. Lavrov at the end highlights the partnership with “BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with the People’s Republic of China, with the countries of Latin America and Africa.”

    In the Swiss meeting it became apparent that this policy has borne some fruit. Russian hydrocarbons at rock bottom prices are a powerful persuasion tool. Most of the other deliverables are scheduled to be allocated through BRICS (which has a payment system that sidesteps the dollar), Putin announces in the speech that there will be new members admitted in BRICS, likely from the Global South.

  22. Keith Harbaugh says:

    TTG, you have spent considerable time studying Russia.
    I wonder what you might think of this analysis of it, by “sundance”:

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/06/21/making-sense-of-the-fatherland/

  23. Keith Harbaugh says:

    British political leaders denying that the Eastern expansion of NATO
    was the specific cause of Russia’s attempt to mitigate the clear threat that posed to Russia:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/sunak-starmer-slams-farage-eu-nato-provoked-russia-war-ukraine/

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