Russia’s main rail link to China has been left paralyzed after Ukraine’s Security Service blew up a tunnel in the Russian republic of Buryatia, it has been reported. The explosions in the Severomuysky Tunnel were masterminded by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), “paralyzing the only serious route of railway communication between the Russian Federation and China,” news outlet RBC-Ukraine reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter.
Ukraine’s SBU told Newsweek that officially, it can “neither confirm nor deny
involvement” in the incident, but added that “death is the only prospect we can offer to the occupiers” who have “brought war, loss of life and violence to our land.” “We will be able to talk about who is behind this or that case after our victory. Which will definitely come soon,” the SBU added.
The Severomuysky Tunnel is a railroad connection on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) in northwestern Buryatia. The Soviet-built BAM is a crucial transit railway that cuts through Siberia and is used to deliver cargo shipments to Asia. It is one of the world’s longest railway networks, stretching around 4,300 kilometers, or almost 2,700 miles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pushed to modernize the country’s railways, including the BAM, in order to handle the rapid increase in freight traffic from China to Europe, and to reduce transport times between ports in Russia’s Far East and the country’s western border.
An RBC-Ukraine source said that Russia used the route for military supplies.
Russian-language Telegram channel Baza, which is linked to Russia’s security services, said that a fuel tank caught fire while moving through the tunnel in Buryatia in the early hours of Thursday. “It was probably sabotage,” the channel reported Thursday, adding that there were no casualties. “What caused the fire is still unknown. Police and FSB officers are working on the spot. Also, police and special services officers are working on the train parking areas,” Baza reported.
Ukrainian publication Ukrainska Pravda also reported that the tunnel was blown up by the SBU. “Four explosive devices went off during the movement of the freight train. Now the FSB is working on the spot, and railway workers are unsuccessfully trying to minimize the consequences of the SBU’s special operation,” a source told Ukrainska Pravda.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-railway-tunnel-china-explosion-sabotage-1848265
Comment: The first question is what is the truth. Since both Ukrainian and Russian sources agree that some accident happened in the tunnel, we can rely on that fact. Beyond that, who knows. This is a single track line through the mountain, but it is not the only Russian line across Siberia. I found a video on the tunnel’s construction. It appears to be Soviet-style solid so even multiple explosions and a subsequent fire on the train may do little damage. It will be a matter of a major clean up and minimal repairs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-yvpyS5f98
I’m fairly confident this is the work of SBU or SBU led partisan sabotage. Since early in the war, things all across Russia have been catching fire and blowing up. I doubt it’s all due to industrial accidents. This concentration of UW activities across both the occupied territories and Russia is a product of Ukraine’s total national defense doctrine and, I’d like to think, many years of MTTs from 10th SFG(A). This was our reason for being ever since the group’s activation in 1952.
TTG
I never took an informed interest in the back and forth of the fighting in Ukraine after the SMO started. As you know, TTG, “informed” for me is out of the question. I was always one of the few people on the Colonel’s site who knew damn all about military matters and can’t say I’ve improved since.
As for “interest”, why bother too much with the military stuff in any case? If we were ever going to beat the Russians we were going to beat them in the sanctions war. That failing, all failed, and it could be no other way. And this was never real war anyway.
My interest in the whole affair was on a quite different subject. How the hell, I wondered from the start, did we in the West ever get into a death wish situation like this in the first place? How did our political elites manage to take us along with them, and that with us so enthusiastic and determined? And did our military and political classes really screw up as catastrophically as it looked?
On the first question I found myself focusing on Germany rather than the US. Those are the two big players in the West and I always saw Scholz as a man leveraging US military and financial power rather than being overborn by it. Barbarossa Scholz, I called the muppet running Germany , when I wasn’t calling him the DIY Morgenthau specialist, and I still haven’t worked out exactly what the silly chump thought he was up to. Other than bashing Russians of course, bashing Russians being something a fair few Germans have always been quite keen on..
On the second question, how we the people were got to go along with it, I saw that first hand in England. Point us English in the required direction and tell us to howl at the enemy and we dutifully howl at the enemy. No mystery there.
On the third question, did our respective Great Leaders screw up, I don’t think so. They lost the match with Russia of course but as a consolation prize they get Cold War II. That’s handy for them.
Two reasons. First it’s going to be happy time for the defence industry lobbyists and the politicians and think tanks they support. Second, Ukrainian war or not, Europe and my country with it is going down economically and going down fast. Normally that would have us looking sideways at the clowns in Westminster and Berlin/Brussels. With career damaging consequences for the clowns. Not now. We’ll be too busy patriotically howling at the Russians. Cold War II is all gain for the clowns. So their thinking, I reckon. Have to see how that goes for them.
But of course the military stuff is still important. Lots of our proxies are dying and not a few Russians. And for reasons to do with the pre-SMO civil war in the Donbass it became more important to me with Avdeevka. That I have followed as closely as I have been able. This man’s been following it too and I reckon the section here I found just now is on the money, for all that it’s now two weeks old. So I submit the link here in the hope those who do know about military affairs will check it out:-
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-reckoning
Should say, on the other material in the link there’s some I disagree with. I see a continuum in the way the Russians have handled this war from the beginning. I don’t see an initial false start as suggested. In contrast to the shambles the clowns have got themselves into, the Russians have thought this through quite carefully. Since around 2014, I’d guess. Maybe earlier.
EO,
As far as I know, no war has ever been won through sanctions. The US/NATO sanctions were designed to be a deterrent to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Putin decided to invade anyways, the West had no choice other than to implement those sanctions. It was either that or fully abandon Ukraine. We chose not to do that. But even with that decision, we have not and are not providing Ukraine enough to thoroughly defeat Russia. We are frightened by the prospect of what that might bring including nuclear war initiated by a desperate Kremlin or a collapse of order across Russia and the fall of the Putin regime. I don’t see Russia as being that fragile. If nothing else, she can endure adversity. Unfortunately for Russia, so can Ukraine.
I’m going to read that Big Serge article more closely later. I think he’s a good analyst. He’s absolutely right in saying the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive failed or at least failed to live up to the overhyped expectations. But he also said, “There’s only the cold calculus of massed fires over time and space.“ We see how the massive Russian artillery advantage eroded since the war began to a point the Ukrainians now reach parity and often a firepower advantage over the Russians. They still enjoy a drone advantage although the Russians are not sitting still. When this is finally over, the Russian military will be chastened, but far wiser than they were in February 2022.
TTG – I’m glad he’s OK. I came across him a few months back but mainly with some very readable accounts of old battles. Waterloo was what interested me most and there he seemed to be in line with other material I’ve read. And an account of Kursk where he debunks the famous tank battle.
I think the Ukrainians deserved a better cause, better direction of their war, and above all better sponsors. Whether they’re in the right or not, and there opinions differ too widely ever to be reconciled, we’ve let them down badly. We’ll end up blaming them of course, but they will with more justice blame us.
As for our lot, the European and UK politicians I refer to as the clowns, word fail me. It’s not often one gets to see an entire continent committing felo de se.
EO,
The Ukrainians couldn’t have a better cause, defending their country and their people against a brutal, atrocity committing invader. I think they’re going a pretty good job directing their defense, but they should expect more from their Western allies. We’re half stepping it out of fear of the Kremlin.
The ANC would not have won its revolution in South Africa without Sanctions, but that only worked because pretty much every other country was fed up with Apartheid.
But that’s kinda the Exception that proves your Rule. Bottom line: Sanctions only work if [almost] every country cooperates. The end of US Hegemony means that economic Sanctions won’t win wars now.
elkern,
That true, but I was thinking more about Cuba. We’ve sanctioned the hell out of that little country for half a century and it’s still carrying on.
TTG,
I would not be surprised if Putin is rationalizing away the sanctions as a partial good, as they encourage domestic manufacturing and research. From what I’ve read Russian industry suffers from the same thing ours does, cheap imports, and they have a legacy of being an industrial powerhouse.
Btw, thanks and kudus for the work you’re doing on this site. Much appreciated.
Mark Logan,
In the long run, sanctions will be good for the Russian economy. It will have the same effect as our buy American push. I’m pretty sure Soviet industry was self sufficient in the 50s, 60s and 70s. Although their industries may have been a little cruder than in the West, their research in the various Academies of Science were top notch.
If noone minds I’ll just pass this link along without comment other than to add that there have been several very bad fires yesterday and today in Russia – fires of huge markets in Moscow and Rostov-On-Don.
————-
Putin orders Russian military to add 170,000 troops as Ukraine war drags on.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-12-01/putin-orders-the-russian-military-to-add-170-000-troops-for-a-total-of-1-32-million
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday ordered the country’s military to increase the number of troops by nearly 170,000, to a total of 1.32 million, as Moscow’s military action in Ukraine continues into its 22nd month.
Putin’s decree was released by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately. It brings the overall number of Russian military personnel to about 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops. (More at link).
Pasted and translated by bot from Telegram. How did this one happen? Was China hit first and then retaliated by infecting the US? I’m only joking a little bit. Our president is literally genocide Joe, so bioweapons attacks are small change and sniffles to him assuming he even knows what goes on. On the earlier thread I pasted a fragment from the Rolling Stone piece which described how Kissinger sabotaged (see TTG, on topic 😃) the 1968 peace talks just so he could get a job in the next administration, whichever one it happened to be. So don’t leave out of consideration the possibility of starting a little epidemic of child pneumonia so that genocide Joe bears the blame for it. Look how it destroyed Trump – the Covid pandemic – these political twirps are about nothing other than revenge, once their bribes have been deposited offshoring. Does it sound crazy? Yes it certainly does, but look around.
——————————————
https://t.me/malekdudakov/6325
The United States has been hit by an epidemic of panic . In Massachusetts and Ohio, a rise in cases of pneumonia in children is recorded – the same format that is observed in China and Europe – Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. America may be overwhelmed by this with the onset of cold weather.
The Center for Disease Control is still trying to reassure the population – but after two years of the Covid pandemic, its credibility has been severely damaged. Moreover , any attempts to quarantine people again this time could lead to a rebellion against the ruling elites .
Three years after the start of the pandemic, even the liberal press began to reluctantly admit that the strict lockdown was a colossal mistake . For example, school closures have caused U.S. math and language test scores to fall to 20-year lows .
The share of Americans who now trust the press has fallen to 10-20%. The attitude towards Congress and the federal government is not much better. Many state governors like Ron DeSantis are openly sabotaging White House policies. And they will flatly refuse to announce new quarantines, compulsory vaccinations, or fully enable postal voting again .
The political class in Washington would not mind repeating the 2020 scenario under the guise of an epidemic. It is not for nothing that Bill Gates, a major sponsor of the Democratic Party, is frightening with the arrival of a new pandemic – more deadly than covid . It worked once, but it’s unlikely to be repeated. And therein lies a great danger – after all, if a real force majeure happens, then no one will simply believe the statements of Big Pharma lobbyists or the politicians on their payroll.
Again on Sabotage – where is the mention of yesterday’s story which followed up on earlier ones in the financial times and BBC, on how Israel knew all about the plans of the October 7 attack for over a year in advance? Superceded by the continuation of the war in Gaza today, I guess. This has LIHOP or MIHOP false flag written all over it in 20ft tall neon sign lettering. It will someday be tied in with the gas field acquisition conflicts in the eastern Mediterranean and Rishi Sunak’s family, one would think. When you add in the fact that it now appears that up to 80% of the deaths suffered by Israeli citizens on Oct 7 were due to “friendly” Israeli fire, the lettering height grows to 50ft. Calling it “the result of the Israeli Hannibal directive “ is grimly hilarious not because that name rhymes with “Cannibal,” appropriately, but because it’s a perfect Freudian slip. By characterizing the massacres from the air of the kidnapped festival goers and their abductors, they’ve goofed big time and illustrated perfectly the old interrogator’s adage that “the tongue always seeks out the aching tooth.” Skeptics are already saying that it’s not unrealistic to suspect that the US and UK deep states were in on the planning with the Israelis. I personally wouldn’t go quite that far yet, but do think it not unreasonable to see in all this the hints of evidence of two domestic US currents converging. Namely to create a disaster perfectly timed for Biden’s reelection campaigns and to start the ball rolling on the cessation of the Israeli tail wagging the American dog, not to mention the long burbling but thoroughly censored undercurrents of disgust with a foreign policy that has made the US a world pariah over the last 21 years regarding its middle east policies generally and more specifically regarding the Israeli and dual citizen drivers
of it all.
—————-
Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the attack in detail. Israeli officials dismissed it as aspirational and ignored specific warnings.
“the fact that it now appears” If you don’t mind I will be borrowing (more likely claiming as my own.) this.
Do you have a link to this 80% claim?
The hamas attack and the seasonal pause in the rus/ukr are linked.i expect to see an increase in sabotage groups causing real havoc in Russia.
These groups have training for a while and are ready to go.A civiluan mass casualty event is on the cards imho.
No hibernation for the bear this time and no settlement
3q¾
Thank you, beautiful and intelligent (and calm, cool and collected) Jessica Burbank. Thank you for saying what everyone is thinking but isn’t allowed to say. I wonder, now that I’ve seen this remarkable presentation of yours what else you will have to say on some of the other issues. Like tens of thousands of homeless and drug addicted who can’t afford housing or treatment because of course all money and resources are for the military and Israel. Why is it precisely that LBJ could build projects for millions of the unemploymed and unemployable domestic refugees of our apartheid and plantation slave system back in my youth circa 1964-68 but the uprooted unemployable white “folks” and victims of neoliberalism and moving factories to Asia are dying on the streets are not deserving of something similar? Is it because we’ve become a neofascist society run by multi-billionaires? Or is because Mr Rogers passed away during the year 2003?
———————————-
Israel knew about Hamas attack plan a year ago: Report.
https://youtu.be/75UiLhKhoPk
Or the CIA
Yup. Or MI6 working with central Asians.
https://tinyurl.com/ycy4vxxx
If you get a chance look over that piece of Seymour Hersh’s as of today. This paragraph jumps off the page at me:
————-
“The ingredient that triggered the private talks is a shared understanding that Putin would not object to a settlement that fixed borders according to where the troops were in place when the peace talks ended. Russia would be left with unchallenged control of Crimea and, pending an election to be held under martial law in March, with essential control of the four provinces, or oblasts, that Russia annexed last year: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and the still embattled Kherson. In return—in a concession not foreseen—Russia, that is, Putin himself, would not object to Ukraine joining NATO.”
——————–
Joining nato? At best it’s an elaborate ruse. More probable imo is that the Pentagon & Whitehouse wish Putin very poor tidings for the new year due to the humiliation he has inflicted upon them, and therefore they spread rumors such as this which are very bad for Putin, and not only because of the upcoming election.
A person might reasonably suspect either CIA or Defense of the sabotage if this piece is taken seriously. They do this while going bankrupt themselves.
US intends to cut Russian oil & gas revenue in half by 2030.
https://www.rt.com/business/588354-us-russia-energy-sanctions/
TTG –
“minimal repairs”?
The jury is still out on that. Did the heat from those fires destroy critical power lines and ventilation systems? How hot was the fire and how bad was the spalling of the concrete due to the heat? I’d bet that when that tunnel was built they didn’t use heat-resistant concrete – my understanding is that it was not widely used during that time frame.
https://www.everything-about-concrete.com/heat-resistant-concrete.html
There is of course a bypass. Hard to imagine what that mountain train ride would be like during a Siberian blizzard.
leith,
One of the bypass routes was also hit by a massive train fire over a mountain bridge. Both strikes were obviously coordinated and occurred at a most inconvenient time for carrying out repairs. Good. Keep it up.
“The SBU organized the Chernobaevka railway for the Russians: a train with fuel exploded again in Buryatia The Russians fell into the trap of the SBU twice – another train with fuel exploded on the Baikal-Amur Railway. As our sources note, this explosion became the second stage of the SBU special operation to disable this important railway line. The Russians also use it for military logistics.”
“The first freight train exploded directly in the Severnomoisky tunnel. To continue moving, the Russians began to use a bypass route passing through the Devil’s Bridge. This is exactly what the SBU was counting on: while the train was passing over this high 35-meter bridge, the explosive devices embedded in it went off. As Russian telegram channels write, 6 tanks caught fire as a result of the explosion. Even a fire train arrived to put out the fire.”
TTG –
Any truth to the rumors that Budanov’s wife was poisoned by GRU? Was that payback or did it happen the day before?
leith,
She has heavy metal poisoning. Don’t know any more than that.
Ethnic Ukrainians are 5% to 9% of the population in those far eastern regions of Siberia where this sabotage took place. Giving Budanov’s operatives there a good source of support.
I’ve been looking at that bypass route on Google Maps. I count at least five extreme horseshoe turns, used to smooth out the grade and make it less steep. Kind of like the Altoona and Tehachapi Loops in the Pennsylvania and California mountains, but on steroids. That’s a pretty good feat of engineering. But even so, that bypass slows trains down so drastically it would take several hours to travel just nine miles as the crow flies even before taking out Devil’s Bridge.
As if there isn’t enough war in the world, with U.S. involvement:
“The US is scrambling to avoid another foreign policy crisis — this time in Congo
The U.S. drew up a multi-part deal for Congo and Rwanda to deescalate fighting between their forces.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/01/biden-congo-war-00129620
Another senseless and desperate terrorist-like attack by the lost failed state of Ukraine.
Russia will finishing her off shortly regardless of such nonsense. If I were Russia, these acts of sabotage would result in harsh retaliations that make the impending collapse of the Kiev regime even more painful, like ensuring that the women and children not only have no sons, fathers, husbands (as is becoming the case), but that they also freeze to death this winter, in the dark.
I can’t see any real good coming out of this war.
It looks to me like a lose/lose all around, for Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
IMO, it definitely should have been avoided through negotiations and compromises, brokered by well-meaning parties.
Wish the U.S. could have done that.
OTOH, this war benefits, of all entities, North Korea.
Eric – “Harsh retaliation?” Hope not. Seeing too much of that in Gaza. Also in the ATO. You remember Poroshenko? “Their children will cower in the basements.” Don’t want to see that the other way.
“Shortly?” Doubt even the Russians know how long this’ll take to play out. It’s ballooned out of all reckoning since Istanbul. Might collapse suddenly. Might balloon some more for all we know.
EO,
To be kind to your enemies is to be cruel to yourself
Eric – maybe in total war. But for all the high stakes on the table, this isn’t total war and should not be confused with such. It’s a catch as catch can sort of war with both sides, primarily the Americans and the Russians, very conscious that it mustn’t go further than that. It’s in that context we must look at the SMO.
At the very start of the SMO the Russian ROE were so tight, according to Chirkin, that they lost more men than had they gone in hard. In Mariupol, again the same restraint was shown. Also at some cost in men.
Chirkin can’t be regarded as that reliable but the initial spike in Russian casualty figures does confirm his account. In the early days the Russians went in soft deliberately. Even so, they still incapacitated the much larger Ukrainian army and, their prime objective, ensured the Donbass could no longer be in danger. Why use an axe when a chisel will do? A quite remarkable military feat, that first period of the SMO, and there were good political as well as humanitarian reasons for being “kind to the enemy” in that early period.
Not so kind now. It soon became apparent that NATO was all in as far as it dared. All the arms and equipment NATO dared send and using as grunts a seemingly inexhaustible supply of the toughest soldiers in Europe. So the Russians stolidly set themselves on a course they’ve followed more or less ever since. Knock out as much equipment as they could and kill those NATO grunts in quantity. This was not a proxy war they dared lose.
And since both Zelensky and NATO were of one mind when it came to sending the grunts into the killing fields, that’s what the Russians have been doing ever since those early days. I’m afraid that doesn’t qualify as being kind to the enemy, Just disposing of the enemy as efficiently as possible with the lowest possible cost in Russian lives.
When it comes to civilian deaths the figures are quite startling, even though the Ukrainians had worked out that using civilians as human shields and storing military equipment in or around civilian buildings was their best tactic. The UN figures for civilian casualties are so low as to be scarcely believable, not when you compare them with civilian casualties resulting from similar Western operations. I don’t expect they are that believable, but even allowing for under counting a lot of damage has been done to Ukrainian military units and infrastructure in the rear at a remarkably low cost in civilian lives.
So in that respect the Russians are still being “kind to their enemy” and a good thing too. Ukraine is merely piggy in the middle in this conflict. Why wallop it harder than is necessary.
All that’s why I do get a bit irritated when people – many Russian bloggers and Strelkov types among them – think the Russians should have gone in hard and done a Hamburg or a Dresden or a Coventry. That was total war and both sides were wielding the axe. No need in this case and it would have been wrong to act as if there were.
EO,
Yes, what you say is, I believe all true. Obviously, I am of the Strelkov camp. I suppose the Russian leadership can always move into that camp if realities on the ground alter the cost/benefit analysis to favor it. The question is, what would that decision point look like? I would say that a few more blown tunnels, drone attacks on Crimean harbors and such, accompanied by internal morale impact, should should be more than enough to cause Russia to reach a consensus on adopting a more ruthless approach.
Eric – You’re not in the Strelkov camp! That man’s like Arestovich. So round the corner it hurts.
He screwed up big doing his Garibaldi act in Slavyansk. He would persuade us that Ukraine is full of patriotic Russians all yearning to return to the Motherland. As if it were that straightforward! People like Ishchenko and Sleboda have their feet more on the ground.
I watched some of Strelkov’s interviews. A chancer. Impossible to pin him down. Takes refuge in dreamy generalisations and slides around all over the place when asked directly what he means. That reproach can scarcely be directed at you and I’m sorry if I gave the impression it was.
We need a Patrick Armstrong around again to assess the Hurrah Patriots Strelkov runs with. I don’t have the background. I suppose they’ve been useful to the Russian General staff – the nonsense they write on the blogs gives an entirely false impression of the SMO and serves to mislead the Western journalists. Not that those doughty information warriors need much misleading, They dream up a sufficiency of rubbish by themselves.
Eric
The zep in 69
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wEPog_WdPE4
Cohen,
Perfect. Great jam too!
Yes from the burning zeppelin. Guitar in qatar.
the blues can become any style of music, apropos any human emotion. big, powerful sound from those crafty guys, from that time. became my gauge for all subsequent rock concerts – seeing (hearing!) them in late summer ’70, from sixth row front in Music City, of all places. lucky me. thx for the reminder.
Blue can also become cooler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27ieRStrwEI
Nice word salad Eric. But the chef in the Kremlin is still too impotent to make that happen. He’ll might do what you claim, but to Armenia instead of Ukraine. Taking out his vengeance on Yerevan for daring to:
– provide humanitarian aid to schoolchildren in Ukraine;
– for taking part in the Eagle Partner 2023 Armenian & US joint drills at Zar Training Center outside Ashtarak;
– for PM Pashinyan’s public statement that “Armenia is not Russia’s ally in Ukraine war”;
– and for recently ratifying the founding statute of the International Criminal Court vexing Putin as the ICC wants to arrest him.
Leith,
You’re just sore because the much vaunted (in western propaganda fantasies) Ukro offensive has flopped miserably w/ much loss of irreplaceable life and gear among Ukro forces – and Russia now is on the attack and seizing territory like Adveevka with little effort. Zelenesky will be getting the Mussolini treatment by this Spring and everyone knows it (except you and TTG).
The longer these wars are allowed, by the stronger party, to drag out, the longer the suffering for everyone on all sides and the more risk of needless harm to the stronger party (like this dumb tunnel attack and the murder of Israelis at a bus stop by Arab a-holes the other day).
Russia should move to crush Ukraine now that Zelensky and his NATO puppet masters have shot their wad. I believe that is beginning to happen (finally!). Just as Israel should lay waste to Gaza and depopulate it. Let the other Arab countries absorb any survivors (like they care even to a fraction of western social justice complainers do). Israel paying attention to pressure from the effete and ridiculous “international community” and their self-serving notions of right and wrong is just a recipe for the continuation of a multigenerational conflict with implacable, murdering, inbred, stupid, savages (yes, the Palestinians) who act as pawns of more Machiavellian Muslim political interests.
Eric Newhill,
Russia has been trying to end this war on her terms since February 2022. She can’t. Your hope that she can defeat Ukraine by Spring is foolish. You will be sadly disappointed. They will still be fighting through Spring, into next Summer and probably beyond that until the Ukrainians decide to give up their existence as an independent people or the Russians pull back behind their borders. Russia’s position as the stronger party in this conflict is very much in doubt.
For Israel you’ll be happy to know that Netanyahu and his right wing allies do want to drastically cull the Palestinian population in Gaza, not just end Hamas.
Eric –
The dwarf in the Kremlin has been breaking his teeth on Avdiivka since July 2014. To no avail. I feel sorry for the poor Russkie cannon fodder that he keeps sending to an unburied death trying to take it back. But at least they are now at peace. Their widows and orphans may yet live to see the dwarf get your Mussolini treatment.
Ukraine may decide to eventually retreat from Avdiivka. Like Bakhmut it has little importance to them other than to use as a meatgrinder. It is only Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov who unfortunately for Russian troops believe there is political value in retaking it.
It’s been years since I paid any attention to the daily beast publication. This caught my eye an hour ago. I haven’t any idea of their track record over the recent few years, I always considered it an untrustworthy neocon outfit. If I recall correctly they used to have neanderthals like Max Boot writing articles. If this article is correct then it’s quite true that it’s outright genocide or at the least full on ethnic cleansing because all 2.2 million will be evicted and their housing and infrastructure destroyed. Anyone who believes this Israel will rebuild the place is out of their mind. It corresponds perfectly with the plans for “greater Israel.” If so we’re watching a Hamburg, Dresden or Hiroshima of WW2 unfold right before our eyes. In slow motion, fed to us with lies by the spoonful so it goes down better.
——————————
https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-defense-forces-spokesman-says-most-of-southern-gaza-will-suffer-same-fate-as-north
Top Israeli Official Reveals Catastrophic Plan for Rest of Gaza
TEL AVIV—As fighting erupts in Gaza again, a top Israeli official told The Daily Beast that the entire enclave awaits “the same fate” as the decimated north.
The remarks follow a weeklong truce that saw a brief pause in hostilities and allowed the release of 110 Israeli and foreign hostages. Now, having effectively destroyed northern Gaza City, the Israeli military has turned its attention to the south of the strip. Israeli officials are clear that this is only the start of a protracted military campaign—intended, they say, to destroy Hamas at almost any cost.
The Daily Beast interviewed Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus, the International Spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces, at his office in Tel Aviv this week.
“This idea that people are fantasizing about, that we are going to stop the fighting and that we are going to allow Hamas to continue governing Gaza, is not going to happen,” he said. “To do so, he said, would be akin to allowing “a sword of terror to hang over the throats of Israeli civilians.”
To do this, he says that the Israeli military will be targeting the major cities of southern Gaza, to which over one million people have fled, with a ferocity equal to its assault in the North. To protect civilians, the Israelis have said they have designated a “safe zone” in the small coastal strip of Al-Mawasi, previously the site of the Gush Khatif Israeli settlement.(more at link)
It’s very interesting to compare images of Gaza and Kiev right now.
This is Kiev – which according to the Western press has been turned into rubble by the demon in the Kremlin in hiscampaign of genocide against Ukrainians. The people of Ukraine have been butchered in atrocities so terrible they can’t be shown.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FInternational%2Fphotos%2Fimages-kievs-independence-square-22607297&psig=AOvVaw3M27xmNCnSK1BVSMHjSBbB&ust=1701572823183000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CBIQjRxqFwoTCJCbm_Pi74IDFQAAAAAdAAAAABA5
This is Gaza, where the worlds most moral army has, sadly, resorted to surgical strikes, mimimizing collateral damage, as it wipes out terrorists. The people of Gaza enjoy regular medical attention and humaitarion aid.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FInternational%2Fimpacts-strikes-gaza-devastating%2Fstory%3Fid%3D103870550&psig=AOvVaw0tLRra0VC4HlSiAqZgh3p0&ust=1701572744665000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBIQjRxqFwoTCLDE-8Hj74IDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
Its terrible – what Putin does. Why cant he be more like israel?
/sarc.
Pundits and Ukrainians had better hope that Putin continues to exercise restraint. my own opinion is that Russia is quite capable of ending these nuisance attacks by ending Ukraine.
Alternatively: “thats a nice tunnel you have under the English channel. Shame if something were to happen to it….”
You get my drift?
walrus,
What is your reasoning for believing Russia can end Ukraine at will or even stop the constant acts of sabotage on her soil? Do you think the Kremlin chooses to remain in this position for well over a year and a half?
TTG my reasoning is twofold;
1) Putin enforces restrictive RoE tha precludes deliberate humanitarian disasters like GAZA has become.
If this were NOT the case, there would be no hospitals left standing in UKraine, nor water treatment and sewerage plants, schools, Universities, refineries or food and fuel distribution systems surviving except the wheelbarrow.
The alternative is to believe that Ukraine has impenetrable air defences – which I do not believe is true.
To put that another way, if Israel can pulverise Gaza, then why can’t Putin pulverise Kiev?
2) For Russia to embark on a sabotage offensive in Europe is potentially counterproductive if the Russian objective is to destroy public support for NATO among europeans.
walrus,
I do believe Russia’s initial RoE were designed to merely decapitate the government in Kyiv rather than cause widespread destruction to Ukraine or her military forces. That attempt failed. They quickly returned to their Soviet tradition of massive artillery strikes, but that was only applicable to areas close to the front lines. Look at Mariupol and cities/towns across the Donbas for Gaza-like scenes of destruction.
Ukraine’s air defenses effectively kept Russian aircraft from hitting strategic targets from day one and those air defenses have only improved since those early days. Those air defenses don’t have to be impenetrable, just effective. Missiles and drones are all the Russians have to hit those targets and there are not enough of them to saturate a country the size of Ukraine. Nor are they accurate enough to reliably hit the desired targets. Israel is striking the much smaller target of Gaza with their Air Force with impunity and accuracy. In addition, their artillery can reach deep into Gaza. Russia is simply incapable of doing the same. They can’t even stop the Ukrainian trains.
I agree with your second reason. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already brought back NATO from the dead. Russia shot herself in the foot on that one. An overt Russian sabotage campaign across Europe would only further strengthen NATO resolve. Besides, Russia has frittered away much of their Spetsnaz forces as front line cannon fodder. In contrast, Ukraine has carefully shepherded her special operations forces.
TTG,
You would have had a great laugh a few years ago with “The Saker” and his claims that the Russian army could easily defeat the Ukrainian armed forces dug in around Donetsk (and Donbass more generally) … Without even crossing the border or using nukes. Because, you see, their weapons were incredibly powerful and numerous. Actually you confessed to believing just a bit that they were if not ten feet tall then quite possibly eight to nine. (You’re definitely not from Missouri if that’s so. 🙃)
F&L,
Back then I thought the Russians would quickly roll across Ukraine right to the Polish border, neutralize the Maidan crowd and quickly roll back to their own border keeping only Crimea for themselves. Ukraine was exceedingly weak militarily at the time. It might have worked, but it wouldn’t have worked without at least rolling into Kyiv. They tried that in 2022 and failed.
I still think the way Russia handled Syria was brilliant.
TTG – “Since early in the war, things all across Russia have been catching fire and blowing up. I doubt it’s all due to industrial accidents.” You obviously know little about the Soviet attitude to industrial and domestic safety, especially where electricity is concerned. It was and still to a degree is appalling. APPALLING!! Cloth covered two pair aluminium wires connected by twisting, chased into the wall then covered with render and countless layers of wall paper applied over that. Or the same wiring in log houses held off the wall on tiny ceramic standoffs. Fuses? Use a nail, it won’t blow!
Those twisted aluminium joints, over time oxidise and become high resistance joints, in other words, an electric heater. When I rewired my eldest daughter’s new apartment, I insisted on an earth circuit and ELCBs. The electrician said why? That’s three wires and 50% more expensive! That’s the attitude throughout the FSU.
Every Soviet man was an electrician and a plumber, and it shows in the shoddy repairs in apartments. And they transferred this to their workplaces.
Is there sabotage? I’m sure there is, but the SBU will claim every accident as sabotage, whether it’s true or not.
For anyone interested in a somewhat more detailed discussion of the thesis I offered yesterday, see the article at the link below. They are asking us to believe in another Gleiwitz Incident like the one on Aug 31, 1939. According to Wikipedia that, with bleak irony, was but one part of the larger deception campaign called Operation Himmler.
Documents expose Israeli conspiracy to facilitate October 7 attack.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/12/02/klox-d02.html
On Friday, the New York Times published a report establishing conclusively that Israel was fully informed, in detail, of plans by Hamas to attack its border that were executed on October 7. These revelations make clear that Israeli officials, knowing full well where and how Hamas would strike, made a deliberate decision to stand down in order to facilitate the attack.
These revelations mean that the Israeli government allowed and abetted the killing of their own citizens and that the Israeli government is responsible for the deaths that took place that day. This criminal conspiracy was aimed at establishing a pretext for a long-planned genocide against the people of Gaza. (More at link)
F&L,
I seriously doubt the Israelis were that clever. They just thought they were that clever. They supported and abetted Hamas for years thinking it would prevent the Palestinians from gaining any traction in pursuit of the two state solution. They could not believe Hamas could possibly carry out the attack they did even though the evidence was there that this could happen. They’re not clever at all. They’re stupid idiots too full of themselves to see what was happening right in front of them.
Israelis ars stupid idiots! Gee, one might almost think you are anti-Semitic or maybe hail from a famously anti-Semitic place. Of course I’m just kidding. I guess they are chopping up the evidence and burying it because they are stupid idiots though. It figures.
Israel Burying Burned Cars They Attacked Oct 7!
https://youtu.be/_9-u8LwhiZk
This sent a shudder through me timbers. This dude below was the pointman on the Gleiwitz Incident, and a member of the German SS. Why the shock? He is to my mind the spitting image of Oleksii Arestovich. There’s a pic at the link. Do an image search on Arestovich.
Alfred Naujocks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Naujocks
In any event,no one has mentioned why trains from China were targeted.If it was military equipment,then the Chinese are being paid with cheap gas and wheat.That side industry,gas and wheat for equipment is not good for peace.Peace can only be achieved through shutting down the supply chains.That way there is nothing to fight over.No bone,no dog,no dog,no bite,no bite,no bark,no bark peace
No bark peace.Thats the present Chinese military doctrine.
https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/crossing-rubicon-qatar%E2%80%99s-journey-natural-gas-dominance
Then there is qatar,this little country throwing its weight around using hamas as its personal standover man trying to stop meditterean gas from competing against them in Europe.
They gave hamas the free pass to kidnap woman and children
Compare that to no bark peace.That supply chain definitely needs a dog to bite it.Nine twelve good buddy
Brief video at link
https://t.me/rian_ru/223483
Train traffic on the East Siberian Railway section in Buryatia has been completely restored, Russian Railways reports.
On Thursday, on the Itykit – Okushikan stretch, while moving through the Severomuysky tunnel, a carriage of a freight train caught fire. According to the Investigative Committee, a tank car with fuel was on fire, there were no casualties.
The Mistake That Got So Many CIA Agents Killed in China🎙Darknet Diaries Ep. 75: Compromised Comms
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh_q02eefFM
Every country has military failures and intel failures. The US however is starting to accumulate a lot of failures. The problem however can’t be fixed. According to these journalists a whistleblower tried to stop this breach. He was fired and his life ruined.
This is where we are in the US. Nobody wants to take the blame for anything. We will continue to go down this path unfortunately until it starts to really sting people financially which it will. Propaganda can hold back the waters for a while but that while is getting close to the end. People must be held accountable at the highest level.
babelthuap,
At one point in that story it was said that the contractor targeteer set up the communications plan for the resident agents. That shocked me. In the Army and later DIA, it was the case officer who was fully responsible for developing the communications plan. That’s what the case officer is trained to do. Of course, for us, it was all non-technical communications even for resident agents.
With the advent of the internet, a lot of operations latched onto the ease of such technical communications. A lot of lazyness ensued. Copying the same technique for several agents is lazy. Doing so for several agents in the same country is criminal negligence as far as I’m concerned.
Technology tripped up the CIA in Italy when they snatched the wrong target. The officers carried their personal cell phones on the operation. Rolling them up was child’s play for the Italian police. Even in SF we sterilized ourselves before an operation. The same was done before clan intel operations. Absolute laziness.
I definitely agree with your observation that no one owns up to their failures or are held to account for those failures.