“As most Western militaries that share the IDF’s values and legal adherence know too well, the doctrine described by Kochavi is currently the least bad of several bad options. This doctrine will no doubt be tested again, not just in Gaza, but also in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s arsenal is ten times larger than Hamas’s and its fighting forces are much more powerful. Sadly, the Gaza conflict may have been just a trailer for the full disaster film awaiting the parties in Lebanon. For example, Gaza militants launched around 400 rockets per day at Israel in this round, but Hezbollah could sustain five to ten times that pace using heavier, more accurate weapons. At the same time, the IDF is capable of conducting at least a dozen times more daily strikes than its Gaza tally of around 150 strikes per day, perhaps hitting thousands of targets daily in a Lebanon war. These ballpark strike numbers could result in thousands of fatalities, especially since Lebanon’s size and the expected intensity of conflict would make it difficult for the IDF to practice the same collateral mitigating measures it used so widely in Gaza.”
Comment: And, pilgrim turcopoles, Israel is also a mighty small country where the density of of population targets will make a multitude of counter-value targets available to HB. Note that this retired brigadier refers to the possibility of a “cataclysm” if such an event occurs.
The Jewish population of Israel is afraid of the hammer and anvil effect of Hizbullah in the north and Hamas in the south just as the IAF and IDF ground forces fear the combination.
I have been crying like Cassandra since shortly after 2006 warning the Israelis that their position is untenable.
The Hizbullahis remember well that Benny Ganz (the very same) fought a remarkably unsuccessful war against them and when he could not win with his fighter bombers against them remembered the murderous Trenchard/Douhet/Billy Michell books he had read over the years and unleashed a campaign of aerial terror against the whole country, not just Hizbullah assets; the defense line, storage facilities and launch positions. They have no reason to think the Israelis will not do it again so they might as well “let it all hang out.”
They now have the word of this IDF strategist that this what is contemplated. Do you think they cannot read English? pl
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