Russian air defense systems are poorly equipped to combat modern drones, which are smaller and cheaper. The West is not saying so, but a Russian report analyzing the country’s anti-drone capabilities does. Small drones have become a bane for Russia in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine. It has become more apparent with each passing day, and a recent video showing Ukrainian drones stalking the Russian air defense systems that are supposed to be shooting them down and bombing or directing precision artillery fire onto them.
The 193-page report is written by Professor Sergey Makarenko of St Petersburg Electrotechnical University (LETI) and is titled Countering Unmanned Air Vehicles. Makaranko studies military applications of technology, and this is one of the few open-source documents giving a peep into Russian anti-drone capability. The report analyses why Russia has been so bad at hitting drones in particular. The report looks into the efficacy of the layered anti-air defenses available for Russian forces like the short-range air defense system Pantsir S1, self-propelled anti-aircraft guns Tunguska, surface-to-air missile system Tor and Strela-10 tracked vehicles with heat-seeking missiles for close-in defense and shoulder-fired Igla-S.
Makarenko lists the spate of encounters between Russian air defense systems and drones in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh, where the Russian air defense systems did not work out well for the defenders. Prof. Makarenko’s report indicates that these air defense systems fail in the face of drones. He insists that even though the sophisticated features of these air defense systems publicized by the developers are “not fully confirmed” in practice. He repeatedly underlines that bringing down the small drones is “practically impossible” as the Russian radars cannot see them.
The Russian tactical radars are designed to pick up fast-moving jets, not small, slow-moving targets. “The results of field tests showed that the target detection radar of the Tor air defense system provides detection of small UAVs at ranges of only 3-4 km,” writes Makarenko. Hence, the Tor air defense system cannot spot the drones unless they are too close, and by then, it is challenging to shoot the unmanned vehicles down. It is also why the Ukrainian drones can get so close to the Russian systems and take videos.
The situation remains grim as Ukraine continues to take giant strides in drone technology. The Ukrainian forces now have drones carrying out autonomous strikes against Russian troops without a human operator. The Saker Scout drones can find, identify, and attack 64 different types of Russian ‘military objects’ on their own, operating in areas where radio jamming blocks communication and prevents other drones from working.
The Russian troops are trying everything they can to shoot down, ground, and deflect the tiny, explosives-laden Ukrainian drones. Russian forces even tried strapping small RP-377 radio jammers, designed to block the signals that detonate radio-triggered roadside bombs, to tanks and other vehicles in the hope of stopping the signals that control speedy first-person-view drones. However, the improvisation failed miserably.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russias-air-defense-system-failed-against-ukraines/
Comment: Makarenko’s report is dated. It was published well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but his critique of Russian air defense weapon systems remains accurate. He foresaw the direction drone warfare would take in Ukraine. The “Eurasian Times” article does update the information with current battlefield experiences. Those Russian weapon systems remain just as impotent as in Makarenko’s report. It’s the same for the Ukrainians. That was apparent in the first week of the counteroffensive when Russian drones were hammering Ukrainian attempted combined arms breakthroughs. While Ukraine’s air defense network, including the highly effective and cost effective Gepards, are fairly good at stopping Russian drone attacks on cities, it does very little against Russia’s increasing use of battlefield drones. In addition to the EW-based defenses, they need smaller, cost effective gun systems with radar and thermal target acquisition. And they need lots of these gun systems.
It does seem that Russia’s current primary defense against battlefield drones including the FPV killer drones consists of jammers and other EW methodologies. It’s the same for the Ukrainians. Beginning with the 2014-2016 war, the Ukrainian military started developing a drone force. Ukraine now has over 30 companies producing drones and expects to have an “Army of Drones” of 200,000 drones by the end of this year. They have the doctrine, tactics, training and an army of drone pilots to support this. Russia is playing catch up in this regard. I only pray that we are also playing catch up.
TTG
So what does that mean for the US’ air defense systems, especially those in carrier battle groups?
Fred,
It means we’re in a world of hurt unless we change our ways. We’ve ignored air defense and EW for far too long. Our carrier groups probably don’t have to worry about swarms of FPV aerial killer drones. They’re too slow and the distances are too great. Surface and undersea drones are another story. I don’t know if we have a plan for dealing with a school of subsurface drones or several schools heading for the carriers.
TTG
It’s the immortality complex born of being protected by 2 gigantic oceans and never having experienced a war on our own soil except again ourselves, and that too long ago for anyone alive today to remember.
So what could go wrong?
Oh no, just imagine if some child somewhere isn’t able to receive sex-change counseling and hormones! Thank goodness for Barack Obama and Joe Biden! Did I forget Kamala Harris — Well then I am a damned good for nothing racist and misogynist aren’t I?
The cheap quadcopter FPV drones require LOS radio control. But if drones have onboard AI, a swarm could be deployed by fast aerial carrier drones. Seems the Russians are experimenting with this. The implications for naval combat are more serious than for land combat. Naval targets aren’t obscured by clutter, and they can’t rearrange themselves to obscure their vulnerable points.
TTG,
Drone Pearl Harbor would sink that idea of fleet safety. We have how many millions crossing the border, along with how many student/H1B work visa holders here? To whom are they loyal?
US border defense is also helpless.
If the united states was a bathtub it would not be a spacious one tiled with rare marble and filled with vintage champagne in which frolicked the contestants of the Miss Universe pageant being toweled off by the big ten’s most attractive cheerleaders.
Perfect for terrorists. The IRA would have loved drones instead of the home made mortars they experimented with. And if it’s difficult to bring drones down on the battlefield, how much more difficult to defend civic functions or unprotected infrastructure way out in the country.
I can’t imagine they’ll remain such a problem on the battlefield. In the early period of WW1 aeroplanes were used for spotting or dropping explosives. At the very beginning neither side interfered with the other’s machines much, except for small arms fire from the ground. Didn’t take long to work out that the best way to deal with planes used for such purposes was to shoot them down with other planes specifically designed for that role. As fighter planes rapidly evolved, presumably anti-drone drones will also evolve fairly quickly. If EW doesn’t answer, the battle of the drone swarms would then be a feature of modern warfare, just as counter-artillery battles have been for so long.
Whether it goes that way or not, the use of drones by terrorists over unprotected civilian areas is a quite different matter. That must already be a danger, as also the use of drones to surveil the civilian population. Much cheaper to send a drone out than a man, to check farmers are doing all the prescribed environmental things. Or to check the new barn conforms to planning regulation. Or maybe to track who the local dissidents are consorting with. Knock political opposition on the head before it’s had time to snowball and reach the ballot box. Though that’s a major industry already.
I shall put a fighter drone on my Christmas list. Won’t solve the problem but should serve as a deterrent.
EO,
As Lefty in “Donnie Brasco” would express it: “Fuggedabout it.” There will be drone refueling and repair stations on every block of every city disguised as Starbucks and Wendy’s staffed by AI powered robots. Serving the most delicious insect pies.
F&L, personally, I find EO’s meandering line of thought from potential furrreign terrrorrists using drones to inner consent victims or, homegrown dissidents under state drone surveillance interesting. The latter would like to act like the former, targeting whom exactly? Inside the lefties but outside whom?
But yes, astute: Almost as bad 0ver here in Europe or worse maybe than it was under the Nazis or the communists you know. 😉
Leander-
Finally we agree on something. I find EO’s line of thought meandering too. You do realize, Leander, that meander not only rhymes with your name, it’s identical with it except for starting with the next letter in the alphabet.
Yes: everything is in flux, panta rhei (everything flows) … We never step into the same river twice, because the river changes constantly.
Mine and his.
Complete the sequence:
Leander, Meander, _______
Then append “thal.”
What does it suggest?
another current eval of the drone scene:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/8/2210504/-Ukraine-Update-It-s-the-drones-That-s-the-problem
strikes me we should learn as much as teach. when it comes to this latest style of warfare, we may have more to learn than we teach. my experience in the field of autonomous tactical platforms is that we have the raw talent (both elderly & youthful), but the ROI & margins are challenging for industry, given their decades of giant systems, having giant acquisition cycles w/ giant budgets. I’m confident they’re working hard on those problems & will figure it out.
TTG –
I’m also praying that we catch up. The problem is that China seems to be the way ahead of us in drone manufacturing.
We should be buying drones from Ukraine; and studying Ukrainian drone tactics. Those Ukrainian-made EW-resistant drones in your cover pic look pretty good. They’ve also made some other good ones, the Shark and the octocopter Vampire.
‘Viy’, wasn’t that a fictional witch from a story by Ukrainian author Gogol?
leith, why not study Russian drone tactics? They’re in the lead now.
Drifter –
That’s not true from what I’ve read. But you have a point, we should be studying ‘all’ Russian tactics including their evolving tactical drone doctrine.
We should also be domestically producing the microchips, etc. involved and not farming all of that out to Taiwan and China (no brainer except we have a lot of greedy leadership with no brains, no loyalty and no vision).
Hopefully last years Chips and Science Act will start producing results. But never underestimate corporate CEO/CFO avarice for outsourcing.
leith, please share the US Government intel you have that indicates what I said is untrue.
Drifter –
My only info is open source aka OSINT. That includes the many Russkie Telegram complaints that Ukrainian drones are always overhead and there is nowhere safe from them. It also includes the many Ukrainian videos on both Twitter and Telegram that show UAV strikes on Putin’s occupation troops/tanks/IFVs/ammo dumps/HQs etc. Very few Russian videos show the opposite.
As for government info, maybe you could share the Kremlin’s intel that proves they are in the lead in drone tactics.
Sad to say though, they will catch up eventually if the war keeps dragging out. And their drones will improve as they keep getting blackmarket imports of Western electronics.
Looks like great fun. So far I’m only up to minute 7 of 52 and already we have a USAF Counterintelligence officer revealing that the UFO stuff was an Air Force & CIA hoax, and Col Lawrence Wilkerson confessing that he, to his deep regret, intentionally deceived the UN Security Council on behalf of Bush & Cheney and his boss Colin Powell.
Conspiracy, Mainstream Media or Madness | The Truth Illusion. 2023
https://youtu.be/dBwrhqRZpHo
I would have thought that the most effective way of taking down a drone is to send another drone out after it.
Or is that too obvious?
That’s been my thinking for about a year or longer. I came up with several elaborate basing and surveillance schemes. Sure fire moneypit and boondoggle. Probably doable with the computer power on hand and sufficient satellite tech. Basically planet earth would become a gigantic aerial insect nest of swarming, battling drones, and the human beings would be kept on large petting zoos for robots to practice serving coffee to.
Too challenging. Some kind of impulse burst that fries or otherwise shuts off their electronics is better
That idea has two problems that I can think of:
1) This still doesn’t get around the problem that the radar signature of a small drone is too small to see in time to point a weapon at it, irrespective of whether that weapon throws bullets, missiles, or “impulses” at it.
2) If you can’t point the “impulse gun” at the drone (see point 1) then a scatter-gun approach to frying the electronics is going to require enormous power (square-root law), which you are unlikely to have on a mobile battlefield.
A “killer drone” can be sent up above your tanks and look down and around. If it’s own AI detects another drone then it can swoop down and take it out, if it doesn’t then it can land and be recharged while another is sent aloft.
Speaking of scatter-gun approach, my grampaw’s old 10-gauge goose gun could have wreaked havoc on those small FPV drones. Had a three foot long barrel and as I recollect he used those extra long shells with more pellets.
Or even better would be a modernized version of those antique punt guns 6- or 8-gauge.
Or that shoulder fired Carl Gustav 84mm recoilless has a flechette round?
Again, I don’t think the problem is downing the damn thing – good netting would probably be able to do that job.
The problem is detecting them. And especially detecting them early enough to be able to do anything about them.
Yeah, Right,
I agree that detecting them early enough to be able to do anything about them is the main problem, at least for the small FPV racing drones often used in attack mode. Even infantry well trained in defense against aerial threats have only a few seconds to detect and engage those drones. Still, I think it can be done. But I don’t know if anybody trains in those tactics anymore.
Leith,
Oh sure, lots of fun. Goose hunting when the geese can shoot back. All within the other usual challenges of a battlefield. No thanks.
Yeah Right –
There is a net-based system. I believe that the manufacturer, Fortem, gave a few to Ukraine.
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/a-better-c-uas-option-capture-enemy-drones-in-a-net/
Whatever solution is chosen is almost certainly going to be autonomous e.g. the anti-drone equivalent of the trophy system that is mounted on tanks and other armored vehicles.
If you are on static defense then you can launch drone that are tethered to a power supply and therefore can stay powered up 24/7
It they spot an enemy drone then they can drop the tether and go out hunting them.
You could also scatter around you any number of auto-deploying nets to catch those little micro-drones that have a nasty habit of doing a death-dive into trenches: sort of like a land-mine in reverse.
All much tougher if you are on the move, of course, but I suppose you would advance with a swarm of defensive counter-drone drone buzzing over your head.
The downside is that if those drones can be detected then they will be giving away the location of your ground forces to the enemy.
Yeah, Right,
I was thinking along the same lines with the trophy system-like autonomous defense against drones. That won’t help light infantry. They might be able to carry some king of passive drone detectors and continue to rely on stealth. They’ll definitely need to be supported by drone outfits in addition to conventional fire support. Defensive positions could have those anti-drone trophy systems or at least some kind of jammer.
Yeah, Right,
You’re probably right about a “scatter shot” approach to a drone electronic frying impulse defense. I have no idea really. Tech is definitely not my strong suit. Re; dog fighting drones, same problem of detection, especially of the smaller of the enemy drones, isn’t there? How does your drone “see” theirs and then lock on and chase it down?
I would imagine that it wouldn’t be using radar, but would track it by optical means.
After all, that’s how a falcon or an eagle knows when to swoop on its prey.
So good optics, and some autonomous AI in the hunter drone that discriminates a drone from a bird from a bat.
So in densely populated areas in case of drone attacks all the electronics is fried? You must own lots of Apple and Samsung stock. We want to be able to film the exciting drone attacks and share it with our friends and relatives on social media!
Dearest Mama,
I’d be happy to send you footage of the drone attacks on our apartment buildings yesterday, but my cellphone electronics was microwaved to a crisp due to the primitive monkeys who forced billions of charged particles to oscillate rapidly up a down a silly conducting pole. Please give the poney-express man my regards.
Love, Baby daughter Lulu
Dear Baby daughter Lulu,
Thanks. But I thought microwaves were for pies and pastries. By the way, poney was handsome, but a bit too express. Next time the postman. How do you bake your pie?
Mama
Sweden is essentially in NATO now by simple legerdemain. Yes, simple like basing B-B1 Lancet stealth bombers there. What’s complex about that ? The photo is frightening. Yes, Russia certainly is a threat to conquer Europe once they finish off Ukraine.
Swedish Bases To Be Opened To U.S. Forces.
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/swedish-bases-be-opened-us-forces
“Raytheon Lloyd” has not exactly been letting the grass grow under his feet. Article should auto translate. 800 km. How far is it to the Dnieper?
https://tinyurl.com/5ykwskd6
The US Army received the first PrSM missiles.
On December 8, 2023, the US Army announced the receipt of the first batch of new PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) missiles in the first production version of Increment 1 Early Operational Capability. Lockheed Martin’s high-precision “shorter-range” (in arms treaty terms) PrSM missiles are expected to replace the ATACMS operational tactical missiles in service in the US Army. Launch of the new American Lockheed Martin PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) missile from a combat vehicle of the M142 HIMARS missile system (c) US Army The PrSM missile is launched from modified launchers of the M142 HIMARS and M270A2 MLRS ground-based missile systems, but, unlike ATACMS, on a launcher The M270A2 MLRS should carry four PrSM missiles (instead of two ATACMS), and the M142 HIMARS launcher should carry two PrSM missiles (instead of one ATACMS). The PrSM missile has an officially stated range of 499 km, although in fact its range is estimated at at least 550 km, and more likely up to 700-800 km.
IMO, these drones are frightening; everything from the little ones that target individual soldiers and drop grenades on them to the bigger ones that can destroy armor and even sink sink ships. An infantry man’s best hope in combat used to be the natural defilade he could dive into or the hole he would dig in the ground. That is gone now. Indirect fire (e.g. mortars) always posed a risk, but these drones are terrible. They’re way more accurate and certain than indirect fire. These things are to modern warfare what the machine gun was to WW1. Something is absolutely going to have to be done to counter them. Since peace is out of the question, maybe we can have robots with drone jamming tech instead of soldiers.
Something more frightening:
https://panorama.pub/news/bajden-vybral-genri-kissindzera-svoim
Biden chose Henry Kissinger as his vice president for a second term
yesterday, 10:00
Joseph Biden will participate in the presidential race in tandem with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the White House press service reported. If he wins, the diplomat will take the post of Vice President of the United States.
As explained in the Biden administration, Kissinger is the closest to Biden’s main electorate, whose votes played a decisive role in his victory in the 2020 election. Despite his age, the diplomat is full of vitality, like the president himself, the White House said. Other famous enemies of Russia, such as Zbigniew Bzezhinsky and Margaret Thatcher, can also join Biden’s team. The Kremlin said that they had not heard anything about Biden’s plans to run for a new term, but in this case they are ready to work with his new administration.
CWIS is very effective against drones although engagement ranges will make the COs ass pucker.
A Telegram post on a channel featuring humor yesterday said that some Geranium drones used by Russian armed forces had been fitted with jet engines and were expected to fly at speeds up to and exceeding 600 mph. First, is it even possible, and second, if it was feasible wouldn’t it defeat the cost benefit advantage of using cheap stuff to destroy expensive stuff? It seemed laughable. But remote controlled jet planes filled with explosives ..
TTG, an AI powered crawling sea mine that sneaked into enemy harbors was first described circa 1955- I am trying to find the story in an old anthology,, maybe the saturday eveninig post reader of sea stories/
You might be thinking of Frank Herbert’s 21st Century Sub – 1956
No, that’s “The dragon in the sea” – poses the psychological question: “what if you can’t stay and can’t leave?”
TTG – I don’t know if this gives an authentic picture of life on the front line under drones:-
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/78462
If it does then it’s grim – “Going to the front line now turns into an extremely dangerous quest. We leave the transport several kilometers away, and then carefully make our way along inconspicuous paths. As soon as a “bird” appears in the sky, we immediately hide. As a result, it can take several hours to walk a couple of kilometers.”
One reads of piggyback drones that can take the armed drone part way along its route and thus extend its range, drones used to carry food and supplies to the front, and the night vision drones. Those last making it difficult to re-supply Khrinky by boat or to rotate so also, presumably making it difficult to move around anywhere day or night.
TTG, I think this article by LJ would be worth your time.
He is, I think, more pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances than you.
But beyond that, I’d love to hear your views on LJ’s article.
https://sonar21.com/why-the-united-states-military-is-clueless-when-it-comes-to-ukraine/
Keith Harbaugh,
I think Larry is spot on with his criticism of US offensive tactics and strategy and how we expected Ukraine to be capable of doing the same without the proper resources. Our offensive strategy is built on achieving air superiority. Much of our capability depends on achieving that air superiority before a ground offensive is launched. Ukraine never had it and had no real hope of achieving it. We should have realized that before the counteroffensive kicked off and come up with a different plan. We should have also realized that Russia started their defense with a parity, if not superiority, in artillery. The Ukrainians only got as far as they did by reverting to their own tactics and strategy.
The Russians built a good defense and had plenty of time to do so. Despite what Larry says, Russia did not have air superiority either, but they took advantage of local air parity with their drones and stand off rotary and fixed wing strikes. Larry also laid out the proposition that the appearance of Russian weakness was a deliberate maskirovka campaign. I seriously doubt that. They certainly weren’t on the very verge of collapse. That was a pipe dream of many Ukrainian supporters. I also seriously doubt the Ukrainian general staff ever thought the Russians were on the verge of collapse. If Russian weakness was truly a ruse, there would have been some serious counterattacks to restore the lines and push deeper into their claimed territory last Summer. Once the Ukrainians reverted to their strategy of methodical attrition, Russian fire support and logistics capabilities have taken serious hits. Russia’s weakness in these sectors is real, not maskirovka.
TTG – The latest Russian attempt to deal with FPV drones is shown in the video here. Netting over the trenches. Set to around 9 mins. Whether it works or not, it does show how serious the threat posed by these drones is.
https://youtu.be/XfdSYIvI4kU?t=537
EO,
I saw that video. It’s not a new tactic, but now it’s done primarily for drones. There’s another soundtrack recorded by a Russian soldier that’s something out of a science fiction horror movie. You hear the drones buzzing around and occasionally hitting a target with a loud explosion. It conveys a feeling of hopelessness. Another video shows an attack by a swarm of drones on a group of Russians trying to evacuate one of their wounded. The Russians are killed in groups and even individually. I guess the Ukrainians have enough drones to do that.
TTG, your latter example is the stuff I find repulsive. Drone hardcore? Considering some on my mind, it’s probably no surprise those nets surfaced. But will they help?
Civilian question: One can enjoy those videos if one is a more hard core supporter of the drone controllers than me? … Celebrate them like their directors and editors?
Brookings in 2016 counting six ways. Nets are number 2.
Battelle’s DroneDefender: 15 pounds (6.795/6.803 kg) How much does the infantry carry already? Other stuff can go?
http://tinyurl.com/Brookings-Six-Ways
****************
EO, you may want to get yourself a Battelle’s DroneDefender … just in case …
Being nobody is the best defence, don’t you think LeaNder? We nobodys have always had that as our security. If we’re lucky.
The nobodys of Gaza aren’t among the lucky ones. Just as the nobodys of the Donbass failed to luck out when the neo-Nazis your man Scholz is supporting to the hilt came visiting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&t=11s
You didn’t know then that Merkel was backing them all the way. You do now, as you know that Scholz is still doing so. It’s not all Biden and the neocons, you know. I suppose the greatest disillusionment of the last few years was to discover that Nie Wieder was a sham.
A few background links here. The writer gets some of it wrong here and there but his links fill in a little more:-
https://gordonhahn.com/2023/12/11/sad-clown-with-the-circus-closed-down-zelenskiys-demise/
And they shell each others’ ambulances or parties evacuating the wounded. Some contrast to the extract submitted a while ago:-
Corporal Thomas Galwey described a temporary truce which occurred “about the middle of the forenoon” on July 3 in front of the 8th Ohio’s position. It started when numerous Confederate skirmishers shouted, “Don’t fire, Yanks!” Then “a man with his gun slung across his shoulder came out from the trees. Several of our fellows aimed at him but the others checked them, to see what would follow. The man had a canteen in his hand and, when he had come about half-way to us, we saw him (God bless him) kneel down and give a drink to one of our wounded who lay there beyond us. Of course we cheered the Reb, and someone shouted, ‘Bully for you! Johnny!’ Whilst this was going on, we had all risen to our feet. The enemy, too, having ceased fire, were also standing. As soon as the sharpshooter had finished his generous work, he turned around and went back to the tree, and then at the top of his voice shouted, ‘Down Yanks, we’re going to fire.’ And down we lay again.”
The U.S. is having some problems figuring out what to do on developing drones:
” ‘Disorganized and confusing’: Lawmakers, industry rip Pentagon plans for drones
Critics say they want more specifics on DOD’s Replicator program — including how they plan to pay for it.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/17/pentagon-drones-replicator-program-funding-00132092
“Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said the Replicator drone initiative won’t need new money because it will draw from already funded programs.”
But wait a minute!
DoD is cutting recruiting efforts to pay for all this Ukraine/Israel support:
Army Warns Recruiting Efforts Could Take a Hit if Congress Doesn’t Pass Ukraine and Israel Funding
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/12/04/army-warns-recruiting-efforts-could-take-hit-if-congress-doesnt-pass-ukraine-and-israel-funding.html